CN108985602A - It is a kind of meter and risk power grid classification item input-output evaluation of urban method and system - Google Patents
It is a kind of meter and risk power grid classification item input-output evaluation of urban method and system Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The present invention relates to a kind of meter and the input-output evaluation of urban method and system of the power grid classification item of risk, including the following contents: according to the incidence relation between different item types, risk indicator and functional localization, determine the risk indicator from project undertaking enterprise and the risk indicator from itself risk of power grid project, Risk Assessment Index System of the framework based on functional localization；According to the Risk Assessment Index System based on functional localization of building, the input-output evaluation of urban model of the power grid classification item of the meter and risk of foundation；Input-output evaluation of urban model based on foundation evaluates the input and output of specific power grid project.The present invention has carried out classifying rationally to power grid project according to function type, specifies the structure of power grid project input and output, the apparent incidence relation of risk factors and functional localization；By the input-output evaluation of urban model of the power grid classification item of the meter and risk of foundation, investment decision can be carried out with auxiliary power grid company, the science of investment is improved for weakness.
Description
Technical field
The present invention relates to a kind of meter and the input-output evaluation of urban method and system of the power grid classification item of risk, belong to electric power
System assets administrative evaluation field.
Background technique
The input-output evaluation of urban of the power grid classification item of meter and risk is the power grid project completion for different function positioning
The evaluation of effect and effective levels.With the determination of national new energy development strategy, the increasing of being incorporated into the power networks of a large amount of renewable energy
The investment and operating cost of power grid enterprises are added, while gradually deep and Private Capital the project of electric Power Reform enters limitation
The profit space of power grid enterprises, dual-pressure force power grid enterprises that must pay attention to returns of investment.At present to power grid project investment
Benefit evaluation and examination are mostly the absolute magnitudes of evaluation investment or operation achievement, are result evaluations.Its defect is also very bright
Aobvious, it is not concerned with the power grid project of different function positioning in development condition and develops the difference in benefit, can not be comprehensive, public
Normal incidence evaluates the investment results of the power grid project of types of functionality.
To meet society's electricity consumption demand, the speed of various regions power grid construction is also greatly speeded up, and scale of investment is growing.It is all kinds of
The social and economic benefit of power grid project is significant, but a duration is longer, investment is huge, construction link restraining factors are more
And the cause of technology complexity, it influences it and builds, is more than the uncertain factor of economic benefit and complicated.In the case, relevant item
The risk faced during carrying out continues to increase.Therefore, the various risks faced by analyzing electricity power engineering construction project, are established
It is very necessary that the evaluation method of science, which carries out assessment,.
Summary of the invention
In view of the above-mentioned problems, the object of the present invention is to provide one kind scientifically, quantitatively, differentiation to evaluate power grid
The input-output evaluation of urban method and system of the power grid classification item of the meter and risk of the benefit effect of project.
To achieve the above object, the present invention takes following technical scheme:
In a first aspect, the present invention provide it is a kind of meter and risk power grid classification item input-output evaluation of urban method, including
The following contents: it according to the incidence relation between different item types, risk indicator and functional localization, determines and is undertaken from project
The risk indicator of enterprise and risk indicator from itself risk of power grid project, Risk Evaluation Factors of the framework based on functional localization
System establishes the throwing of the power grid classification item of meter and risk according to the Risk Assessment Index System based on functional localization of building
Enter output evaluation model；Input-output evaluation of urban model based on foundation evaluates the input and output of corresponding power grid project.
It further, include history item schedule delay S from the risk indicator that project undertakes enterprise1, invest back
The receipts phase postpones S2S is reduced with investment yield3, wherein the specific calculating process of each risk indicator are as follows:
(1) history item schedule postpones S1:.
In formula, T1For the practical building time of a certain engineering of undertaking enterprise history；T0For a certain engineering of undertaking enterprise
The Program Construction time；
(2) investment payback time postpones S2:
In formula, TmThere is the year of positive value for accumulative total of net cash flow present worth；K is accumulative total of net cash flow upper one year present worth
Absolute value；C is the present worth for positive value time net cash flow occur；
(3) investment yield reduces S3:
In formula, PcFor annual average profit total value；R is total investment.
Further, the risk indicator from power grid project itself risk includes load prediction deviation C1, quantity of electricity it is flat
Weigh deviation C2, average radius of electricity supply difference is less than C3, improve grid structure contribution performance less than C4, main transformer maximum load rate is greater than
It is expected that C5, short circuit current level is less than C6, averagely using hourage be lower than expected C7It is insufficient with newly-increased main transformer capacity system accounting
C8, wherein the specific calculating process of each evaluation index are as follows:
1) load prediction deviation C1:
In formula, f1For actual motion load；f0To predict load；
2) balance of electric power and ener deviation C2:
In formula, Q1For the reactive power demand of actual motion；Q0The reactive power deposit formulated for the planning stage；
3) average radius of electricity supply difference is less than C3
In formula, Δ RPWith Δ RTIt is that the estimated and actual engineering front and back regional power grid that puts into operation is averaged the difference of radius of electricity supply respectively,
S is engineering region powering area, and N is that engineering puts into operation total number of preceding region electricity grid substation；
4) improve grid structure contribution performance less than C4
σ=- 1 or 0 or 1
C4=σ1-σ0
In formula, σ is that practical improvement grid structure contribution performance value is σ1, σ is that estimated grid structure contributes performance value
For σ0, after engineering puts into operation, grid structure becomes looped network or chain type from radiating, and σ 1, σ is reversed -1, wherein biradial is thought
With Single-ring network, it is single-stranded be equal, dual-ring network is equal with double-chain, as σ=- 1, indicates that engineering weakens grid structure；σ=0 is indicated
Do not change grid structure；σ=1 indicates optimization grid structure；
5) main transformer maximum load rate is greater than expected C5:
In formula, L1The maximum load rate of main transformer when for actual motion；L0Maximum load rate is predicted for main transformer；
6) short circuit current level is less than C6:
In formula, I1For the system maximum short circuit current value after engineering construction when actual motion；I0It is short for estimated system maximum
Road current value；
7) averagely it is lower than expected C using hourage7
In formula, Ta1Hourage is averagely utilized for actual motion；Ta0Average for planning stage prediction utilizes hourage；
8) main transformer capacity system accounting is increased newly less than C8:
In formula, calculated in year according to putting into operation, ∑ StFor system main transformer capacity before putting into operation, StMain transformer capacity is increased newly for this engineering.
Further, according to the Risk Assessment Index System based on functional localization of building, the power grid of meter and risk is established
The input-output evaluation of urban model S of classification item, wherein based on the Risk Assessment Index System of functional localization by risk indicator and
Corresponding risk assessment coefficient is constituted:
In formula, S is the comprehensive performance score of distribution, and E is Power Project comprehensive income, and K is from the risk for undertaking enterprise
Evaluation coefficient, P are itself risk assessment coefficient of the power grid project based on functional localization, and C is power grid project input cost.
Further, itself risk assessment FACTOR P of the power grid project based on functional localization:
In formula, xjFor the risk indicator value of j-th of power grid project itself, wjFor the risk indicator of j-th of power grid project itself
Weight, n be the risk indicator quantity from itself risk of power grid project.
Further, from the risk assessment COEFFICIENT K for undertaking enterprise
In formula, yiFor i-th from the risk indicator value for undertaking enterprise, uiFor i-th of risk indicator from undertaking enterprise
Weight, m are from the evaluation index quantity for undertaking business risk.
Further, the risk indicator of power grid project itself assigns power, detailed process using VC Method are as follows:
(1) standard deviation for calculating each index, reflects absolute variability's degree of each index.
In formula, SjIndicate the standard deviation of j-th of index, xijIndicate i-th of data of j-th of index,Indicate j-th of finger
Target mean value, k indicate the data bulk of j-th of index；
(2) coefficient of variation for calculating each index, reflects the relative variability degree of each index
(3) coefficient of variation of each index is normalized, obtains the weight of each index
Further, power grid item types include transprovincially transregional passway for transmitting electricity project, meet power demands project, ensure electricity
It sends out project, optimization grid structure project and ferroelectric supply project, the risk indicator of each power grid project and is respectively as follows: transprovincially in source
The Risk Evaluation Factors of transregional passway for transmitting electricity project include load prediction deviation and balance of electric power and ener deviation；Meet power demand
The risk Ping Aji index of project includes that average radius of electricity supply difference and main transformer predict maximum load rate deviation；Ensure that power supply is sent out
Project includes averagely using hourage lower than expected and load prediction deviation；Optimizing grid structure project includes improving grid structure
Contribute performance and short circuit current level；Ferroelectric supply project includes load prediction deviation and newly-increased main transformer capacity system accounting.
Second aspect, the present invention also provides a kind of meter and the input-output evaluation of urban systems of the power grid classification item of risk, should
System includes:
For determining the project of coming from according to the incidence relation between different item types, risk indicator and functional localization
Undertake the risk indicator of enterprise and the risk indicator from itself risk of power grid project, risk assessment of the framework based on functional localization
The building module of index system；
For the Risk Assessment Index System based on functional localization according to building, the power grid sorting item of meter and risk is established
The model construction module of purpose input-output evaluation of urban model；
It comments for the input-output evaluation of urban model based on foundation what the input and output of corresponding power grid project were evaluated
Valence module.
The invention adopts the above technical scheme, which has the following advantages: 1, the present invention is according to function type to power grid
Project has carried out classifying rationally, specifies the structure of power grid project input and output, apparent risk factors and functional localization
Incidence relation；It is independent to have carried out input-output evaluation of urban in view of the reapective features of every intermediate item, obtain the visitor of every intermediate item
Evaluation is seen, so that grid company is clear that the comparison of the effective levels of items of different types, to reasonably adjust investor
To；By the input-output evaluation of urban model of the power grid classification item of the meter and risk of foundation, can be thrown with auxiliary power grid company
Decision is provided, the science of investment is improved for weakness.2, the present invention is this combines main, Objective Weight evaluation method evaluation
The risk indicator evaluation coefficient that the serious angle value weight of risk indicator and risk indicator weight are established carries out the input and output of project
Amendment evaluation, investment decision person can effectively grasp the key risk link of power grid project and whole by the scoring of amendment evaluation
Body risk level, to provide effective auxiliary for risk management and control and accurate investment and support, finally by inside and outside risk system
The ratio for input and output of several pairs of power grid projects is modified, and obtains the overall merit score of power grid project.
Detailed description of the invention
Fig. 1 is that power grid item-function of the invention positions grid structure description figure；
Fig. 2 is the input-output evaluation system of the power grid classification item of meter and risk of the invention.
Specific embodiment
Come to carry out detailed description to the present invention below in conjunction with attached drawing.It should be appreciated, however, that attached drawing has been provided only more
Understand the present invention well, they should not be interpreted as limitation of the present invention.
Embodiment 1:
It is sent out as shown in Figure 1, power grid project is divided into transprovincially transregional reinforcement passway for transmitting electricity engineering, power supply according to its functional localization
Engineering meets power demands engineering, optimization grid structure engineering and ferroelectric power supply engineering, each power grid project specific composition
Are as follows:
Transprovincially transregional reinforcement passway for transmitting electricity engineering is including getting in touch with work between contact, more Hui Sheng between contact, double back province between list Hui Sheng
Journey.
Power supply transmission project includes that single telegram in reply source is sent out, double back power supply is sent out, three telegram in reply sources are sent out, power supply is located in looped network
Engineering.
Meeting power demands engineering includes forming single line power supply substation, forming the power supply of common-tower double-return terminal substation, shape
At monocycle power supply substation, formation double loop wire power supply substation, eliminate monotropic, the heavily loaded main transformer engineering of elimination.
Optimization grid structure engineering includes eliminating common-tower double-return terminal power supply substation, further strengthening ring network structure work
Journey.
Ferroelectric power supply engineering includes traction station of electrical railroad power supply engineering.
The input-output evaluation of urban method of the power grid classification item of meter provided by the invention and risk, including content are as follows:
1, according to the incidence relation between different item types, risk indicator and functional localization, determination is held from project
The risk indicator of enterprise and the risk indicator from itself risk of power grid project are done, framework is referred to based on the risk assessment of functional localization
Mark system；As shown in Fig. 2, including history item schedule delay S from the risk indicator valence that project undertakes enterprise1, investment
Payoff period postpones S2S is reduced with investment yield3；Risk indicator from power grid project itself risk includes load prediction deviation
C1, balance of electric power and ener deviation C2, average radius of electricity supply difference is less than C3, improve grid structure contribution performance less than C4, main transformer most
Heavy load rate is greater than expected C5, short circuit current level is less than C6, averagely using hourage be lower than expected C7, newly-increased main transformer capacity system
Accounting of uniting is less than C8, wherein the specific calculating process of each evaluation index are as follows:
(1) history item schedule postpones S1
The progress data situation that project and project in construction is completed according to enterprise is undertaken, counts the enterprise in the project construction phase
Between construction progress and expected progress time difference.
In formula, T1For the practical building time of a certain engineering of undertaking enterprise history；T0For a certain engineering of undertaking enterprise
The Program Construction time.
(2) investment payback time postpones S2
Investment payback time refers to from the investing to build of project, and is repaid required for original capital with the resulting net profit of project
The time limit.
In formula, TmThere is the year of positive value for accumulative total of net cash flow present worth；K is accumulative total of net cash flow upper one year present worth
Absolute value；C is the present worth for positive value time net cash flow occur.
(3) investment yield reduces S3
Investment yield is also known as profit-investment ratio and refers to capital project to reach the certain production capacity the latter of design normal
The annual net income total value in time and the ratio of formula investing total value.
In formula, PcFor annual average profit total value；R is total investment.
(4) load prediction deviation C1
Load prediction deviation refers to because not knowing for load development, causes the load made according to historical load situation pre-
There are a degree of deviations for survey.According to the load prediction data of history item, the prediction deviation amount for counting the functional item is accounted for
Predict the percentage of total load.
In formula, f1For actual motion load；f0To predict load.
(5) balance of electric power and ener deviation C2
Balance of electric power and ener deviation refers to receiving end electric network reactive-load deposit, voltage support and by the related data of electric energy power,
Specifically: the reactive power that the outer power capacity of region of acceptance is larger and the receiving end power grid of multiple-circuit line drop point Relatively centralized feed-in occurs
Demand disruption.
In formula, Q1For the reactive power demand of actual motion；Q0The reactive power deposit formulated for the planning stage.
(6) average radius of electricity supply difference is less than C3
Calculate engineering put into operation front and back substation supply district geometric center to boundary average value difference.Statistics it is practical with
It is expected that deviation situation.
In formula, Δ RPWith Δ RTThe estimated respectively and actual engineering front and back regional power grid that puts into operation is averaged the difference of radius of electricity supply, singly
Position km；S is engineering region powering area, unit km2, N is that engineering puts into operation total number of preceding region electricity grid substation.
(7) improve grid structure contribution performance less than C4
Comparison engineering puts into operation front and back to periphery power network wiring structure change situation, and assessment item improves grid structure, improves
The contributing effect of power supply reliability and load transfer ability.
σ=- 1 or 0 or 1
C4=σ1-σ0
In formula, σ is that practical improvement grid structure contribution performance value is σ1, σ is that estimated grid structure contributes performance value
For.After engineering puts into operation, grid structure becomes looped network or chain type from radiating, and σ 1, σ is reversed -1, wherein biradial think with
Single-ring network, single-stranded equivalent, dual-ring network is equal with double-chain, as σ=- 1, indicates that engineering weakens grid structure；σ=0 is indicated not
Change grid structure；σ=1 indicates optimization grid structure
(8) main transformer prediction maximum load rate is greater than expected C5
It compares main transformer service requirement and desired maximum load rate selects the table of comparisons, determine the expected maximum load rate of main transformer.One
Denier actual loading rate be more than the index expression transformer be more than expected load operation, generally can according to forming apparatus heavy overload,
It needs promptly to shift or cut off the consequences such as load after main transformer N-1, belongs to the case where there are power grid security hidden danger.
In formula, L1The maximum load rate of main transformer when for actual motion；L0Maximum load rate is predicted for main transformer.
(9) short circuit current level is less than C6
Short circuit current level refers to the maximum three-phase shortcircuit or short circuit current in single phase grounding value of electric system, with secondary transient current
Periodic component originates virtual value and indicates.Statistics it is practical and it is expected that deviation situation.
In formula, I1For the system maximum short circuit current value after engineering construction when actual motion；I0It is short for estimated system maximum
Road current value.
(10) averagely it is lower than expected C using hourage7
Average hours of operation of generating equipment capacity under the conditions of oepration at full load in regular period.Average generating equipment
Utilize hour=report period generated energy/report period average generating equipment capacity.
In formula, SaFor report period generated energy；SvFor the average generating equipment capacity of report period.Ta1For the average benefit of actual motion
Use hourage；Ta0Average for planning stage prediction utilizes hourage.
(11) main transformer capacity system accounting is increased newly less than C8
Newly-increased unit capacity system accounting is calculated, this engineering is evaluated and increases main transformer capacity newly to the contributing effect of place system.
Count actual conditions and it is expected that deviation situation.
In formula, calculated in year according to putting into operation, ∑ StFor system main transformer capacity before putting into operation, StMain transformer capacity is increased newly for this engineering.
(12) based on the Risk Assessment Index System of functional localization by risk indicator and corresponding risk assessment coefficient structure
At.
2, the Risk Assessment Index System based on functional localization constructed by step 1 is also wrapped it is found that other than input and output
Include risk factors and functional localization factor, wherein functional localization reflects the construction purpose of electricity power engineering project, and risk factors are anti-
The each stage potential risk of power grid project construction is reflected, and it is (interior according to risk sources to be divided into the risk from power grid project itself
Portion's risk) and from project undertake enterprise risk (Outer risks).Based on this, the power grid point of meter and risk that the present invention establishes
The input-output evaluation of urban model of intermediate item are as follows:
In formula, S is the comprehensive performance score of distribution, and E is Power Project comprehensive income (ten thousand yuan), and K is from undertaking enterprise
Risk assessment coefficient, P be itself risk assessment coefficient of the power grid project based on functional localization, C be power grid project input cost
(ten thousand yuan), therefore, the comprehensive performance score S of distribution had both been considered from the risk for undertaking enterprise, it is contemplated that fixed based on function
Itself risk of the power grid project of position, can more acurrate assessment item compared to former input-output ratio.
Wherein, itself risk assessment FACTOR P of the power grid project based on functional localization
In formula, xjFor the risk indicator value of j-th of power grid project itself, wjFor the risk indicator of j-th of power grid project itself
Weight, n be the risk indicator quantity from itself risk of power grid project.
From the risk assessment COEFFICIENT K for undertaking enterprise
In formula, yiFor i-th from the risk indicator value for undertaking enterprise, uiFor i-th of risk indicator from undertaking enterprise
Weight, m are from the evaluation index quantity for undertaking business risk.
Wherein, risk occur probability refer in specific objective circumstances, in the specific time, certain loss occurrence can
Energy property, is the objective amount of the degree of danger of descriptive analysis object.Risk occur probability include the risk occur a possibility that with
Two key factors of severity after risk generation, the two product is as risk indicator:
Probability × severity weight that the risk indicator=risk occurs
Wherein, the probability which occurs is obtained by history of project data statistics.The generation of each risk is to project
The influence of different severity is caused, for scientifically influence of the estimated risk index to power grid project, according to different functions
Risk indicator severity can be divided risk normal grade using expert assessment method by positioning, risk pays close attention to grade, risk barrier grade three
A grade interval, on this section using it is existing simultaneously take into account it is main, objectively assign power method to the serious angle value of risk indicator into
Row assigns power evaluation, obtains severity and evaluates weight.
3, the input-output evaluation of urban model based on foundation evaluates the input and output of specific power grid project.
According to the difference of assessment item, the comprehensive performance score S of distribution can not divide fixed section and be evaluated, specifically
Using superiority and inferiority can be embodied by the comparison of score.Such as table 1 is some basic datas, for the risk of Calculation Estimation project
Index；The case where table 2 is score and ranking proves effectiveness of the invention and advantage by the comparison with other two methods；
Table 3 is the score analysis of specific targets, embodies the practicability of risk indicator and evaluation method.
It is that sample carries out venture evaluation that the present embodiment, which chooses 10 power grid projects, it is known that each power grid project is all satisfied
The relevant technologies economic requirement of China's power transmission and distribution project, part of information are as shown in table 1.
The partial information of 1 power grid project of table
This 10 projects are evaluated according to above-mentioned appraisement system and evaluation method, be method of proof validity and
Applicability, while being evaluated using two kinds of single tax power, it compares, obtains with combination weighting evaluation method of the present invention
The final score (i.e. S) and ranking arrived is as shown in table 2.
2 power grid project input and output risk assessment score of table and ranking
Comparison is as it can be seen that in the case where evaluation method is weighed in three kinds of taxes, and the project ranking more than half is changed, wherein risk
The ranking that the more apparent project (such as 5,6, No. 10 projects) of situation is assigned at three kinds under power evaluation method is identical, illustrates combination weighting
The result that method obtains both had maintained the objectivity and authenticity of evaluation, was also consistent with Subjective situation；It is multiple for risk situation
Project similar in miscellaneous and risk level, the ranking of ranking and two kinds of single tax power methods after the evaluation of the Evaluation formula of this paper
Compared to certain variation has occurred, illustrate to be not much different in objective data, and subjective method is difficult to the complicated risk accurately measured
In state evaluation, the evaluation method of this paper has played the apparent advantage of its discrimination, can make to key risk factor accurately
Judgement, provides more accurate investment risk assessment of levels.
The comparison of 3 partial risks index score of table
Table 3 has carried out the comparative analysis of partial risks index for project 1 and 3.As can be seen that project from calculated result
1 and project 3 it is close on the absolute figure of risk indicator score, but the indices score of project 1 is more balanced, project 3
Then in index C1Upper score is relatively low, and there are apparent risk hidden danger.In with different tax power method evaluation procedures, subjectivity is assigned
Power method excessively values single risk indicator S1, and have ignored C1Potential risk causes the scoring of final project 3 to be higher than item
Mesh 1, does not make rational evaluation to investment risk；Objective weighted model has only excavated the feature of data itself, although having found C1In
Potential risks hidden danger, but it is not concerned with the investment willingness of power grid enterprises, resulting result lacks the guidance to investment orientation and makees
With；The weight obtained with Evaluation formula of the invention had both considered the subjective tendency of investor, and had given index S1It is larger
Weight, while having found from the maximum angle of discrimination the risk C of most serious1, improve index C1Weight accounting, it is prominent
Most weak link makes the risk level of project entirety obtain more accurately evaluation, provides to investor and more clearly throw
Money auxiliary.
Further, the index that Risk Assessment Index System of the invention is set up is based on the inside and outside more of functional localization
Dimension, multi-angle of view examine or check power grid project, can not only reflect the potential risk factor of power grid project itself, can also reflect
Potential risk factor to decision power grid project out, and the anticipated deviation band of the factors such as macroeconomy, policy is effectively contemplated
The influence come.Each evaluation index flexible strategy, which are distributed, in multiple attribute synthetical evaluation different can directly result in changing for evaluation object order of quality
Become, thus the reasonability of flexible strategy, accuracy directly affect the reliability of evaluation result, thus assign power evaluation method it is excessively subjective and
It is single, the investment willingness of power grid enterprises can not be embodied on the basis of keeping objectivity, and the determination of index weights is that risk is commented
The committed step estimated is measured using different methods, is had a great impact to final assessment result, so needing one
Kind takes into account subjective and objective tax power method to be evaluated.The present invention formulates items by analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and VC Method respectively
The weight of risk indicator, wherein the risk indicator of power grid project itself assigns power using VC Method, from the wind for undertaking enterprise
Dangerous index assigns power using chromatographic assays, and internal risks coefficient and Outer risks coefficient is calculated.
A, the risk indicator of power grid project itself assigns power, detailed process using VC Method are as follows:
(1) standard deviation for calculating each index, reflects absolute variability's degree of each index.
S in formulajIndicate the standard deviation of j-th of index, xijIndicate i-th of data of j-th of index,Indicate j-th of finger
Target mean value, k indicate the data bulk of j-th of index
(2) coefficient of variation for calculating each index, reflects the relative variability degree of each index.
(3) coefficient of variation of each index is normalized, obtains the weight of each index.
B, power is assigned using chromatographic assays from the risk indicator for undertaking enterprise, the entitled detailed process of chromatographic assays is
Details are not described herein for the prior art.
Power grid project is divided into transregional passway for transmitting electricity project, full transprovincially by function by the characteristics of present invention is according to power grid project
Sufficient power demand project ensures that power supply sends out project, ferroelectric supply project and optimization five class of grid structure project, and in difference
Project construction period set up reasonable comprehensive Risk Evaluation Factors to project, pass through the relevance of risk indicator and functional localization
Analysis, obtains objectively evaluating for each intermediate item.For each power grid project to be evaluated, first divided by its functional localization
Then class determines the corresponding evaluation index of the function in appraisement system, is gradually calculated, obtained according to the content of steps 1 and 2
To final scoring, on the one hand overall risk which represents project is horizontal, is on the other hand also to carry out risk management and control
Foundation.The present invention is directed not only to the absolute figureofmerit such as assets status, cost of investment, operation benefits, is also included in investment risk and comments
The range of valence, at the same also according to power grid item-function position the characteristics of, by power grid project carry out classifying and dividing, gradually clearly invest
Being associated property of the two is analyzed in evaluation, reasonable evaluation index is arranged by the incidence relation between risk and functional localization, ties
Build the evaluation score that vertical evaluation model calculates power grid project jointly.The power grid project of different type functional localization, in construction mesh
It puts on there are apparent difference, the present invention is directed to the different functional objectives pursued, and corresponding risk indicator is arranged and carries out
Relevance evaluation, for example, transprovincially it is transregional reinforce passway for transmitting electricity engineering focus on province between or interregional interconnection construction, so wanting
The balance of electric power and ener situation between interconnection is considered emphatically；The construction object of power supply transmission project is the route reinforced around power supply
Construction ensures that electric power can transfer out, so considering power side averagely utilizes the variation of the indexs such as hourage emphatically；Meet and uses
The construction object of electricity demanding engineering is to reinforce the line construction of power supply substation, eliminates monotropic power supply and overload power supply as far as possible
The case where, to promote the power quality of user terminal, guarantee the stability of power supply, is averagely supplied so considering power supply substation emphatically
The situation of change of the index of electric radius；The construction object of optimization grid structure engineering is to reinforce the topological structure of rack, cripetura electricity
Electrical distance between source and load improves the electrical stability of rack, so considering the indexs such as grid structure contribution performance emphatically；
The construction object of ferroelectric power supply engineering is to ensure the electrical stability of electric railway, and the power supply for strengthening traction station of electrical railroad is reliable
Property, so considering the load condition of Traction Station main transformer emphatically.During evaluating specific implementation, using the tax of subjective and objective combination
Power method carries out tax power to risk indicator, can not only keep the objectivity of evaluation in this way, but also can be for the difference spirit of functional localization
The emphasis of adjustment evaluation model living, thus the investment willingness of ancillary investment side.Not according to electricity power engineering project construction period
Together, the risk indicator in appraisement system is embodied, and the entire construction period is divided into project verification application for developing, construction is gone into operation
Stage, operational management stage three parts, the index of risk evaluation system cover Power Project life cycle all stages, example
Such as load prediction invests expected payoff period, invests the measuring and calculating that expected yield belongs to project initiation phase progress；Project schedule packet
The information such as on-stream time, time of completion, the production time of project are included, the evaluation index of construction operation period is belonged to；Remaining index category
In the postrun efficiency effectiveness indicator of project operation, operation management level is embodied.
Embodiment 2:
The present invention also provides a kind of meters and the input-output evaluation of urban system of the power grid classification item of risk, the system to include:
For determining the project of coming from according to the incidence relation between different item types, risk indicator and functional localization
Undertake the risk indicator of enterprise and the risk indicator from itself risk of power grid project, risk assessment of the framework based on functional localization
The building module of index system；
For the Risk Assessment Index System based on functional localization according to building, the power grid sorting item of meter and risk is established
The model construction module of purpose input-output evaluation of urban model；
It comments for the input-output evaluation of urban model based on foundation what the input and output of corresponding power grid project were evaluated
Valence module.
The various embodiments described above are merely to illustrate the present invention, wherein the structure of each component, connection type and manufacture craft etc. are all
It can be varied, all equivalents and improvement carried out based on the technical solution of the present invention should not exclude
Except protection scope of the present invention.
Claims (9)
1. a kind of input-output evaluation of urban method of the power grid classification item of meter and risk, it is characterised in that including the following contents:
According to the incidence relation between different item types, risk indicator and functional localization, determines and undertake enterprise from project
Risk indicator and risk indicator from itself risk of power grid project, Risk Evaluation Factors body of the framework based on functional localization
System；
According to the Risk Assessment Index System based on functional localization of building, the investment of the power grid classification item of meter and risk is established
Output evaluation model；
Input-output evaluation of urban model based on foundation evaluates the input and output of corresponding power grid project.
2. the input-output evaluation of urban method of power grid classification item according to claim 1, which is characterized in that held from project
The risk indicator for doing enterprise includes history item schedule delay S1, the investment payback time postpone S2S is reduced with investment yield3,
Wherein, the specific calculating process of each risk indicator are as follows:
(1) history item schedule postpones S1:
In formula, T1For the practical building time of a certain engineering of undertaking enterprise history；T0For the plan of a certain engineering of undertaking enterprise
Building time；
(2) investment payback time postpones S2:
In formula, TmThere is the year of positive value for accumulative total of net cash flow present worth；K is the exhausted of accumulative total of net cash flow upper one year present worth
To value；C is the present worth for positive value time net cash flow occur；
(3) investment yield reduces S3:
In formula, PcFor annual average profit total value；R is total investment.
3. the input-output evaluation of urban method of power grid classification item according to claim 1, which is characterized in that come from power grid item
The risk indicator of mesh itself risk includes load prediction deviation C1, balance of electric power and ener deviation C2, average radius of electricity supply difference is insufficient
C3, improve grid structure contribution performance less than C4, main transformer maximum load rate be greater than expected C5, short circuit current level is less than C6, it is average
It is lower than expected C using hourage7With newly-increased main transformer capacity system accounting less than C8, wherein each evaluation index specifically calculated
Journey are as follows:
1) load prediction deviation C1:
In formula, f1For actual motion load；f0To predict load；
2) balance of electric power and ener deviation C2:
In formula, Q1For the reactive power demand of actual motion；Q0The reactive power deposit formulated for the planning stage；
3) average radius of electricity supply difference is less than C3
In formula, Δ RPWith Δ RTIt is that the estimated and actual engineering front and back regional power grid that puts into operation is averaged the difference of radius of electricity supply respectively, S is
Engineering region powering area, N are that engineering puts into operation total number of preceding region electricity grid substation；
4) improve grid structure contribution performance less than C4
σ=- 1 or 0 or 1
C4=σ1-σ0
In formula, σ is that practical improvement grid structure contribution performance value is σ1, σ is that estimated grid structure contribution performance value is σ0,
After engineering puts into operation, grid structure becomes looped network or chain type from radiating, and σ 1, σ is reversed -1, wherein biradial is thought and list
Looped network, single-stranded equivalent, dual-ring network is equal with double-chain, as σ=- 1, indicates that engineering weakens grid structure；The expression of σ=0 does not change
Become grid structure；σ=1 indicates optimization grid structure；
5) main transformer maximum load rate is greater than expected C5:
In formula, L1The maximum load rate of main transformer when for actual motion；L0Maximum load rate is predicted for main transformer；
6) short circuit current level is less than C6:
In formula, I1For the system maximum short circuit current value after engineering construction when actual motion；I0For the maximum short circuit electricity of estimated system
Flow valuve；
7) averagely it is lower than expected C using hourage7
In formula, Ta1Hourage is averagely utilized for actual motion；Ta0Average for planning stage prediction utilizes hourage；
8) main transformer capacity system accounting is increased newly less than C8:
In formula, calculated in year according to putting into operation, ∑ StFor system main transformer capacity before putting into operation, StMain transformer capacity is increased newly for this engineering.
4. the input-output evaluation of urban method of power grid classification item according to claim 1, which is characterized in that according to building
Risk Assessment Index System based on functional localization establishes the input-output evaluation of urban model S of the power grid classification item of meter and risk,
Wherein, it is made of based on the Risk Assessment Index System of functional localization risk indicator and corresponding risk assessment coefficient:
In formula, S is the comprehensive performance score of distribution, and E is Power Project comprehensive income, and K is from the risk assessment for undertaking enterprise
Coefficient, P are itself risk assessment coefficient of the power grid project based on functional localization, and C is power grid project input cost.
5. the input-output evaluation of urban method of power grid classification item according to claim 4, which is characterized in that fixed based on function
Power grid project itself the risk assessment FACTOR P of position:
In formula, xjFor the risk indicator value of j-th of power grid project itself, wjFor the power of the risk indicator of j-th of power grid project itself
Weight, n are the risk indicator quantity from itself risk of power grid project.
6. the input-output evaluation of urban method of power grid classification item according to claim 4, which is characterized in that looked forward to from undertaking
The risk assessment COEFFICIENT K of industry
In formula, yiFor i-th from the risk indicator value for undertaking enterprise, uiFor i-th of the power from the risk indicator for undertaking enterprise
Weight, m are from the evaluation index quantity for undertaking business risk.
7. the input-output evaluation of urban method of power grid classification item according to claim 5, which is characterized in that power grid project is certainly
The risk indicator of body assigns power, detailed process using VC Method are as follows:
(1) standard deviation of each index is calculated:
In formula, SjIndicate the standard deviation of j-th of index, xijIndicate i-th of data of j-th of index,Indicate j-th of index
Mean value, k indicate the data bulk of j-th of index；
(2) coefficient of variation of each index is calculated:
(3) coefficient of variation of each index is normalized, obtains the weight of each index:
8. the input-output evaluation of urban method of power grid classification item according to claim 3, which is characterized in that power grid item class
Type include transprovincially transregional passway for transmitting electricity project, meet power demands project, ensure power supply send out project, optimization grid structure project
And ferroelectric supply project, the risk indicator of each power grid project are respectively as follows: the risk assessment of transregional passway for transmitting electricity project transprovincially
Index includes load prediction deviation and balance of electric power and ener deviation；It includes flat for meeting the risk Ping Aji index of power demand project
Equal radius of electricity supply difference and main transformer predict maximum load rate deviation；Ensureing that power supply sends out project includes averagely being lower than using hourage
It is expected that and load prediction deviation；Optimizing grid structure project includes improving grid structure contribution performance and short circuit current level；Electricity
Iron supply project includes load prediction deviation and newly-increased main transformer capacity system accounting.
9. a kind of input-output evaluation of urban system of the power grid classification item of meter and risk, which is characterized in that the system includes:
For determining and being undertaken from project according to the incidence relation between different item types, risk indicator and functional localization
The risk indicator of enterprise and risk indicator from itself risk of power grid project, Risk Evaluation Factors of the framework based on functional localization
The building module of system；
For the Risk Assessment Index System based on functional localization according to building, the power grid classification item of meter and risk is established
The model construction module of input-output evaluation of urban model；
The evaluation mould that the input and output of corresponding power grid project are evaluated for the input-output evaluation of urban model based on foundation
Block.
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