CN108960656A - A kind of Urban population evacuation risk dynamic evaluation method based on data in mobile phone - Google Patents
A kind of Urban population evacuation risk dynamic evaluation method based on data in mobile phone Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The invention discloses a kind of, and the Urban population based on data in mobile phone evacuates risk dynamic evaluation method, specific step is as follows: Step 1: grid data structure initializes: survey region is carried out grid dividing, the data structure based on grid is constructed, including the initialization of grid number and mesh connectivity degree initialize two sub-steps；Step 2: crowd evacuation fragility calculates: calculating the crowd evacuation fragility to Evacuation area using formula；Step 3: crowd evacuation risk stratification is evaluated: building crowd evacuation Risk Evaluation Factors carry out crowd evacuation risk dynamic evaluation, including the building of evacuation Risk Evaluation Factors and evacuation risk distribution dynamic cartography.The present invention breaches in the prior art only for the limitation of certain a kind of urban emergency incident, and only with analogue data or the limitation of stationary population's survey data, realize a kind of Urban population evacuation risk stratification evaluation towards different type Emergent Public Events, high space-time dynamic.
Description
Technical field
The present invention relates to a kind of dynamic evaluation methods more particularly to a kind of Urban population based on data in mobile phone to evacuate risk
Dynamic evaluation method belongs to information technology service field.
Background technique
Urban emergency incident is usually unpredictable and needs emergent management.Therefore, existing public for city burst
Crowd evacuation research required for the event altogether, the method for being based primarily upon simulation.This method happens suddenly public first against a certain city
A series of crowd evacuation impact factors relevant to the event are arranged in event type, including society, economic, crowd's physiology
And the impact factors such as psychology establish evacuation model as model parameter, then under several scenes carry out evacuation simulation with
Emulation, for evaluating casualty loss caused by the event or for providing best dispersal plan under the event.
Generally speaking, existing various simulation models all have certain application in terms of Urban population evacuates risk assessment
Value.However, there are the limitations of three aspects for the Urban population evacuation risk investigation based on analogy method.First, such side
Method during crowd evacuation risk assessment only with analogue data or stationary population's survey data, accordingly, it is difficult to provide in real time,
Dynamic Urban population evacuates risk evaluation results.Second, such method is during crowd evacuation risk assessment only for certain
A kind of urban emergency incident, and the impact factor number that every kind of urban emergency incident is related to is various, it is different types of
Impact factor involved in urban emergency incident is different, therefore, lacks one kind and is suitble to the public thing of various cities bursts
The unified Urban population of part evacuates risk evaluating method.Third, such method only mentions during crowd evacuation risk assessment
For evacuating the relative size of risk, it is difficult to wait for the rank of Evacuation area evacuation risk for objective measure.
Summary of the invention
In order to solve shortcoming present in above-mentioned technology, the present invention provides a kind of urban humans based on data in mobile phone
Group's evacuation risk dynamic evaluation method.
In order to solve the above technical problems, the technical solution adopted by the present invention is that: a kind of urban human based on data in mobile phone
Group's evacuation risk dynamic evaluation method, the specific steps are as follows:
Step 1: grid data structure initializes: survey region being carried out grid dividing, constructs the data knot based on grid
Structure includes the following steps:
1. grid number initializes:
Firstly, survey region is divided into homalographic, seamless connection using the spatial accuracy of mobile phone signaling data as side length
Regular hexagonal cell unit；
Then, using the time precision of mobile phone signaling data as time interval, study period is divided into equal long durations, opponent
Machine signaling data carries out the reconstruction of time and space；
Finally, by the distribution of the sampled point discretization of all mobile phone users in mobile phone signaling data set to day part and respectively
Grid cell；
Based on above-mentioned grid number initialization operation, statistics available generation any time period ti, any grid cell gnGrid people
Number
2. mesh connectivity degree initializes:
Firstly, the connectivity according to survey region road network, establishes the connectivity between each neighboring grid cells；
Then, according to the degree of communication of survey region road network, the degree of communication between each neighboring grid cells is established；
It is statistics available to generate any grid cell g based on above-mentioned mesh connectivity degree initialization operationnAny net communicated therewith
Lattice unit gmBetween degree of communicationWherein, degree of communicationTo pass through grid cell gmWith grid cell gnAdjacent side
All roads on total number of lanes；
Step 2: crowd evacuation fragility calculates: the crowd evacuation fragility to Evacuation area is calculated using formula I, it is public
Formula I is as follows:
Wherein, V indicates the crowd evacuation fragility value to Evacuation area, and P indicates the grid number to Evacuation area；W is indicated
To Evacuation area and extraneous total degree of communication；
Steps are as follows for specific calculating:
1. selecting a minimum space unit using the regular hexagonal cell unit in step 1 as minimum space unit to rise
Beginning grid establishes grid cluster；
2. single order grid cluster is used as to Evacuation area at this time using starting mesh as single order grid cluster；It is generated according to step 1
The grid number P of single order grid cluster1With total degree of communication W1, using formula I, the single order for calculating current first order grid cluster evacuates fragility
Value V1；Wherein, grid number P1For starting mesh number, total degree of communication W1For the company between starting mesh and extraneous all grids
The sum of logical degree；
3. all grids being connected to single order grid cluster are added in grid cluster, second order grid cluster is formed, at this time second order net
Lattice cluster is used as to Evacuation area；Similarly, the grid number P of second order grid cluster is generated according to step 12With total degree of communication W2, adopt
With formula I, the second order for calculating current second order grid cluster evacuates fragile value V2；Wherein, grid number P2For each net in second order grid cluster
The sum of lattice number, total degree of communication W2The sum of degree of communication between second order grid cluster and extraneous all grids；And so on, until
The grid cluster constantly expanded is obtained in the evacuation fragility value for being arbitrarily designated order；
4. above-mentioned calculating step is repeated 2., 3. for each grid in survey region, until obtaining in period ti, often
Evacuation fragility value of a grid on every single order；
Step 3: crowd evacuation risk stratification is evaluated: building crowd evacuation Risk Evaluation Factors carry out crowd evacuation risk
Dynamic evaluation includes the following steps:
1. evacuating Risk Evaluation Factors building: according to international Fu Luoyin service level evaluation index, select 10 people/
Minute foot represents the design traffic volume under crowd's flow constrained state, and 20 people/minute foot is selected to represent crowd's flow
Design traffic volume under congestion state calculates separately generation in conjunction with fire escape length, lane width, average walking speed
Crowd evacuation fragility critical value under limited and congestion state, then according to the two critical values, crowd evacuation risk is divided
For three devoid of risk, low-risk and high risk ranks；
2. evacuating risk distribution dynamic cartography: being based on above-mentioned crowd evacuation Risk Evaluation Factors, calculate and give birth in conjunction with step 2
At in the period, evacuation fragility value of each grid on every single order, carry out crowd evacuation risk distribution dynamic cartography, realize people
Group's evacuation risk stratification evaluation.
Further, when mobile phone user's sampled point in step 1 is more than one, then residence time longest sampled point institute
It is the user in the grid cell where the period in grid cell；When mobile phone user's sampled point is only one, then the sampled point
Place grid cell is as the user in the grid cell where the period；When mobile phone user's sampled point lacks, then upper period
Grid cell where the mobile phone user is the user in the grid cell where the period.
Further, the W in step 2 is to Evacuation area and extraneous total degree of communication, and total degree of communication is to pass through wait evacuate
Total number of lanes on all roads of zone boundary.
Further, the grid crowd evacuation fragility critical value under constrained state is calculated by formula II and is generated, crowded shape
Grid crowd evacuation fragility critical value under state is calculated by formula III to be generated, and formula II, formula III are as follows respectively:
Wherein, r_BLD indicates the grid crowd evacuation fragility critical value under constrained state, and r_gp is indicated under constrained state
Grid number critical value, r_dv indicates that the design traffic volume under constrained state, nol indicate that grid leads to extraneous all roads
On total number of lanes, lop indicates grid cell fire escape length, and aws indicates that crowd be averaged walking speed, wol expression vehicle
Road width；
C_BLD indicates the crowd evacuation fragility critical value under congestion state, and c_gp indicates the grid people under congestion state
Number critical value, c_dv indicate the design traffic volume under congestion state.
Further, devoid of risk described in step 3 is that the fragile value of evacuation of grid cell is less than the net under constrained state
Lattice crowd evacuation fragility critical value, low-risk are that grid crowd of the fragile value of evacuation of grid cell under constrained state dredges
The grid crowd evacuation fragility critical value under fragility critical value and congestion state is dissipated, high risk is that the evacuation of grid cell is crisp
Weak value is greater than the grid crowd evacuation fragility critical value under congestion state.
The present invention provides a kind of, and the Urban population based on data in mobile phone evacuates risk dynamic evaluation method, breaches existing
Only for the limitation of certain a kind of urban emergency incident in technology, and only with analogue data or stationary population's survey data
Limitation, realize it is a kind of towards different type Emergent Public Events, high space-time dynamic Urban population evacuation risk stratification comment
Valence.
Detailed description of the invention
Fig. 1 is overall dynamic evaluation method flow chart of the invention.
Fig. 2 is the grid cluster schematic diagram of calculation method specific example in step 2 of the present invention.
Fig. 3 is that the single order of calculation method specific example in step 2 of the present invention evacuates fragile value V1Calculate schematic diagram.
Fig. 4 is that the second order of calculation method specific example in step 2 of the present invention evacuates fragile value V2Calculate schematic diagram.
Specific embodiment
The present invention will be further described in detail below with reference to the accompanying drawings and specific embodiments.
A kind of Urban population based on data in mobile phone as shown in Figure 1 evacuates risk dynamic evaluation method, and specific steps are such as
Under:
Step 1: grid data structure initializes: survey region being carried out grid dividing, constructs the data knot based on grid
Structure includes the following steps:
1. grid number initializes:
Firstly, survey region is divided into homalographic, seamless connection using the spatial accuracy of mobile phone signaling data as side length
Regular hexagonal cell unit, i.e. Cellular Networks；
Then, according to the time precision of mobile phone signaling data, using the time precision of mobile phone location data as time interval,
Study period is divided into equal long durations, the reconstruction of time and space is carried out to mobile phone signaling data；
Finally, by the distribution of the sampled point discretization of all mobile phone users in mobile phone signaling data set to day part and respectively
Grid cell；Wherein, when mobile phone user's sampled point is more than one, then grid cell where residence time longest sampled point is to be somebody's turn to do
User is in the grid cell where the period；When mobile phone user's sampled point is only one, then grid cell where the sampled point is made
It is the user in the grid cell where the period；When mobile phone user's sampled point lacks, then where upper period mobile phone user
Grid cell is the user in the grid cell where the period；
Based on above-mentioned grid number initialization operation, statistics available generation any time period ti, any grid cell gnGrid people
Number
2. mesh connectivity degree initializes:
Firstly, the connectivity according to survey region road network, establishes the connectivity between each neighboring grid cells；Tool
Body, any two grid, if having road to pass through on spatially adjacent and adjacent side, the two grids communicate with each other；
Then, according to the degree of communication of survey region road network, the degree of communication between each neighboring grid cells is established；Tool
Body, the grid that any two communicate with each other, degree of communication is total number of lanes on all roads for pass through its adjacent side；
It is statistics available to generate any grid cell g based on above-mentioned mesh connectivity degree initialization operationnAny net communicated therewith
Lattice unit gmBetween degree of communicationWherein, degree of communicationIt is connected net boundary to pass through any two
Total number of lanes on all roads；
Step 2: crowd evacuation fragility calculates: the purpose of this step is to construct a kind of staged crowd evacuation fragility
Calculation method is carried out crowd evacuation fragility and is calculated, provides each grid, the crowd evacuation fragility value of day part for step 3；Benefit
The crowd evacuation fragility to Evacuation area is calculated with formula I, formula I is as follows:
Wherein, V indicates the crowd evacuation fragility value to Evacuation area, and P indicates the grid number to Evacuation area；W is indicated
To Evacuation area and extraneous total degree of communication, that is, pass through total number of lanes on all roads to Evacuation area boundary；
Steps are as follows for specific calculating:
1. selecting a minimum space unit using the regular hexagonal cell unit in step 1 as minimum space unit to rise
Beginning grid establishes grid cluster；
2. single order grid cluster is used as to Evacuation area at this time using starting mesh as single order grid cluster；It is generated according to step 1
The grid number P of single order grid cluster1With total degree of communication W1, using formula I, the single order for calculating current first order grid cluster evacuates fragility
Value V1；Wherein, grid number P1For starting mesh number, total degree of communication W1For the company between starting mesh and extraneous all grids
The sum of logical degree；
3. all grids being connected to single order grid cluster are added in grid cluster, second order grid cluster is formed, at this time second order net
Lattice cluster is used as to Evacuation area；Similarly, the grid number P of second order grid cluster is generated according to step 12With total degree of communication W2, adopt
With formula I, the second order for calculating current second order grid cluster evacuates fragile value V2；Wherein, grid number P2For each net in second order grid cluster
The sum of lattice number, total degree of communication W2The sum of degree of communication between second order grid cluster and extraneous all grids；And so on, until
The grid cluster constantly expanded is obtained in the evacuation fragility value for being arbitrarily designated order；
4. above-mentioned calculating step is repeated 2., 3. for each grid in survey region, until obtaining in period ti, often
Evacuation fragility value of a grid on every single order；
This calculation method is described further here in connection with specific example:
1. firstly, communicating with each other as shown in Fig. 2, two grids are represented by dashed line in figure；Based on step 1, produce any
Period ti, any grid cell gnGrid numberAnd any grid cell gnAny grid cell communicated therewith
gmBetween total connectivity
2. then, as shown in figure 3, all grids indicated by the solid line being connected to single order grid cluster in figure；With g10Grid is
Starting mesh establishes grid cluster, only g in current grid cluster10This grid of grid, as single order grid cluster；Based on step
All one's life calculates current first order grid cluster in period t using formula I at grid number and mesh connectivity degreeiSingle order evacuate it is fragile
Value V1, it is as follows:
3., will be with grid next, as shown in figure 4, all grids indicated by the solid line being connected to second order grid cluster in figure
g10Grid cluster is added in all grids of connection, includes grid g in current grid cluster10,g5,g6,g9,g11,g14,g15, as second order
Grid cluster；Similarly, grid number and mesh connectivity degree are generated based on step 1, using formula I, calculate current grid cluster when
Section tiSecond order evacuate fragile value V2, it is as follows:
And so on, until obtaining the current grid cluster constantly expanded in the evacuation fragility value for being arbitrarily designated order；
4. finally, repeating the above steps 2., 3. for each grid in survey region, until obtaining in period ti, it is every
Evacuation fragility value of a grid on every single order；
Step 3: crowd evacuation risk stratification is evaluated: building crowd evacuation Risk Evaluation Factors carry out crowd evacuation risk
Dynamic evaluation includes the following steps:
1. evacuating Risk Evaluation Factors building: when in view of urban emergency incident occurs, the road to Evacuation area
It in traffic control state, is temporarily taken over for use as walking fire escape, provides walking evacuation service for crowd to be evacuated, therefore,
The present invention is evacuated towards walking, establishes crowd evacuation Risk Evaluation Factors.Water is serviced according to international Fu Luoyin (Fruin)
Flat evaluation index selects 10 people/minute foot to represent the design traffic volume under crowd's flow constrained state, select 20 people/point
Clock foot represents the design traffic volume under crowd's flow congestion state, in conjunction with fire escape length, lane width, average step
Scanning frequency degree, calculates separately the crowd evacuation fragility critical value generated under limited and congestion state, then according to the two critical values,
Crowd evacuation risk is divided into three devoid of risk, low-risk and high risk ranks；
Specifically,
Grid crowd evacuation fragility critical value under constrained state is calculated by formula II to be generated, the grid under congestion state
Crowd evacuation fragility critical value is calculated by formula III and is generated, and formula II, formula III are as follows respectively:
Wherein, r_BLD indicates the grid crowd evacuation fragility critical value under constrained state, and r_gp is indicated under constrained state
Grid number critical value, r_dv indicates that the design traffic volume under constrained state, nol indicate that grid leads to extraneous all roads
On total number of lanes, lop indicate grid cell fire escape length, aws indicate crowd average walking speed, wol table
Show the width in lane；
C_BLD indicates the crowd evacuation fragility critical value under congestion state, and c_gp indicates the grid people under congestion state
Number critical value, c_dv indicate the design traffic volume under congestion state.
By formula II it is found that the grid crowd evacuation fragility critical value under constrained state is long by grid cell fire escape
The design traffic volume and lane width that degree, crowd are averaged under walking speed, constrained state calculate generation jointly；Wherein, grid
Unit fire escape length is determined that the average walking speed of crowd can be according to Fu Luoyin service level by the size of grid cell
4.5 feet per second of average walking speed of pedestrian in a text is evaluated to determine, the design traffic volume under constrained state can be according to not Lip river
It is determined because of 10 people of design traffic volume under constrained state in service level evaluation index/minute foot；The width in lane can
According to the standard lane width in People's Republic of China's professional standard " specification of the highway route design " (JTG D20-2017)
3.75 meters determine；
Similarly, by formula III it is found that the grid crowd evacuation fragility critical value under congestion state is dredged by grid cell
It dissipates passage length, the design traffic volume that crowd is averaged under walking speed, congestion state and lane width and calculates generation jointly；Its
In, grid cell fire escape length is determined by the size of grid cell, and crowd's walking speed that is averaged can take according to Fu Luoyin
Average walking speed 4.5 feet per second of pedestrian determines in business one text of assessment of levels, and the design traffic volume under congestion state can be according to
It is determined according to 20 people of design traffic volume under congestion state in Fu Luoyin service level evaluation index/minute foot；Lane
Width can be according to the standard lane in People's Republic of China's professional standard " specification of the highway route design " (JTG D20-2017)
3.75 meters of width determines；
Finally, being dredged based on the grid crowd evacuation fragility critical value under constrained state and the grid crowd under congestion state
Fragility critical value is dissipated, crowd evacuation risk can be divided into three devoid of risk, low-risk and high risk ranks；Wherein, be less than by
The grid cell of grid crowd evacuation fragility critical value under limit state is defined as devoid of risk grid cell；Between limited shape
The grid list of the grid crowd evacuation fragility critical value under grid crowd evacuation fragility critical value and congestion state under state
Member is defined as low-risk grid cell；Greater than the grid cell quilt of the grid crowd evacuation fragility critical value under congestion state
It is defined as high risk grid cell；
2. evacuating risk distribution dynamic cartography: being based on above-mentioned crowd evacuation Risk Evaluation Factors, calculate and give birth in conjunction with step 2
At in the period, evacuation fragility value of each grid on every single order, carry out crowd evacuation risk distribution dynamic cartography, realize people
Group's evacuation risk stratification evaluation.
The present invention provides a kind of, and the Urban population based on data in mobile phone evacuates risk dynamic evaluation method, with the prior art
Compared to having the advantage that
1. overcoming the existing analogy method that is based in crowd by the city grid population distribution for constructing high space-time dynamic
Risk assessment is evacuated in the process only with the defect of stationary population's information, improves the real-time of Urban population evacuation risk assessment
Property.
2. evacuating fragility calculation method by building staged, the range to Evacuation area and evacuation people are extended stepwise
The scale of group overcomes the existing analogy method that is based on and exists to adapt to the evacuation demand of various types urban emergency incident
Only for the limitation of certain a kind of urban emergency incident during crowd evacuation risk assessment, Urban population evacuation is improved
The applicability of risk assessment.
3. referring to international Fu Luoyin service level evaluation index, the evacuation risk assessment towards walking crowd is established
Crowd evacuation risk is divided into three devoid of risk, low-risk and high risk ranks by index, to adapt to dredging for different risk classes
The demand of dissipating is overcome existing only provided during crowd evacuation risk assessment based on analogy method and evacuates the relatively large of risk
It is small, improve the objectivity of Urban population evacuation risk assessment.
Above embodiment is not limitation of the present invention, and the present invention is also not limited to the example above, this technology neck
The variations, modifications, additions or substitutions that the technical staff in domain is made within the scope of technical solution of the present invention, also belong to this hair
Bright protection scope.
Claims (5)
1. a kind of Urban population based on data in mobile phone evacuates risk dynamic evaluation method, it is characterised in that: the dynamic evaluation
Specific step is as follows for method:
Step 1: grid data structure initializes: survey region is subjected to grid dividing, constructs the data structure based on grid,
Include the following steps:
1. grid number initializes:
Firstly, survey region is being divided into homalographic, seamless connection just using the spatial accuracy of mobile phone signaling data as side length
Hexagonal mesh unit；
Then, using the time precision of mobile phone signaling data as time interval, study period is divided into equal long durations, mobile phone is believed
Data are enabled to carry out the reconstruction of time and space；
Finally, by the distribution of the sampled point discretization of all mobile phone users in mobile phone signaling data set to day part and each grid
Unit；
Based on above-mentioned grid number initialization operation, statistics available generation any time period ti, any grid cell gnGrid number
2. mesh connectivity degree initializes:
Firstly, the connectivity according to survey region road network, establishes the connectivity between each neighboring grid cells；
Then, according to the degree of communication of survey region road network, the degree of communication between each neighboring grid cells is established；
It is statistics available to generate any grid cell g based on above-mentioned mesh connectivity degree initialization operationnAny grid list communicated therewith
First gmBetween degree of communicationWherein, degree of communicationTo pass through grid cell gmWith grid cell gnThe institute of adjacent side
There is total number of lanes on road；
Step 2: crowd evacuation fragility calculates: calculating the crowd evacuation fragility to Evacuation area using formula I, formula I is such as
Shown in lower:
Wherein, V indicates the crowd evacuation fragility value to Evacuation area, and P indicates the grid number to Evacuation area；W is indicated wait dredge
Dissipate region and extraneous total degree of communication；
Steps are as follows for specific calculating:
1. selecting a minimum space unit using the regular hexagonal cell unit in step 1 as minimum space unit to originate net
Lattice establish grid cluster；
2. single order grid cluster is used as to Evacuation area at this time using starting mesh as single order grid cluster；Single order is generated according to step 1
The grid number P of grid cluster1With total degree of communication W1, using formula I, the single order for calculating current first order grid cluster evacuates fragile value V1；
Wherein, grid number P1For starting mesh number, total degree of communication W1Degree of communication between starting mesh and extraneous all grids it
With；
3. all grids being connected to single order grid cluster are added in grid cluster, second order grid cluster is formed, at this time second order grid cluster
As to Evacuation area；Similarly, the grid number P of second order grid cluster is generated according to step 12With total degree of communication W2, using public affairs
Formula I, the second order for calculating current second order grid cluster evacuate fragile value V2；Wherein, grid number P2For each grid people in second order grid cluster
The sum of number, total degree of communication W2The sum of degree of communication between second order grid cluster and extraneous all grids；And so on, until obtaining
The grid cluster constantly expanded is in the evacuation fragility value for being arbitrarily designated order；
4. above-mentioned calculating step is repeated 2., 3. for each grid in survey region, until obtaining in period ti, each grid
Evacuation fragility value on every single order；
Step 3: crowd evacuation risk stratification is evaluated: building crowd evacuation Risk Evaluation Factors carry out crowd evacuation risk dynamic
Evaluation, includes the following steps:
1. evacuating Risk Evaluation Factors building: according to international Fu Luoyin service level evaluation index, select 10 people/point
Clock foot is the design traffic volume under crowd's flow constrained state, and selecting 20 people/minute foot is the crowded shape of crowd's flow
Design traffic volume under state；Be averaged walking speed in conjunction with fire escape length, lane width, crowd, calculate separately generation by
Grid crowd evacuation fragility critical value under limit state and the grid crowd evacuation fragility critical value under congestion state, then according to
According to the two critical values, crowd evacuation risk is divided into three devoid of risk, low-risk and high risk ranks；
2. evacuating risk distribution dynamic cartography: being based on above-mentioned crowd evacuation Risk Evaluation Factors, calculate generation in conjunction with step 2
In period ti, evacuation fragility value of each grid on every single order, progress crowd evacuation risk distribution dynamic cartography, realization crowd
Evacuate risk stratification evaluation.
2. the Urban population according to claim 1 based on data in mobile phone evacuates risk dynamic evaluation method, feature exists
In: when mobile phone user's sampled point described in step 1 is more than one, then grid cell where residence time longest sampled point
It is the user in the grid cell where the period；When mobile phone user's sampled point is only one, then grid list where the sampled point
Member is as the user in the grid cell where the period；When mobile phone user's sampled point lacks, then upper period mobile phone user
Place grid cell is the user in the grid cell where the period.
3. the Urban population according to claim 2 based on data in mobile phone evacuates risk dynamic evaluation method, feature exists
In: W described in step 2 is to Evacuation area and extraneous total degree of communication, and total degree of communication is to pass through to Evacuation area boundary
Total number of lanes on all roads.
4. the Urban population according to claim 3 based on data in mobile phone evacuates risk dynamic evaluation method, feature exists
In: the grid crowd evacuation fragility critical value under constrained state described in step 3 is calculated by formula II to be generated, congestion state
Under grid crowd evacuation fragility critical value calculated and generate by formula III, formula II, formula III are as follows respectively:
Wherein, r_BLD indicates the grid crowd evacuation fragility critical value under constrained state, and r_gp indicates the net under constrained state
Lattice number critical value, r_dv indicate that the design traffic volume under constrained state, nol indicate that grid leads on extraneous all roads
Total number of lanes, lop indicate the length of grid cell fire escape, and aws indicates that crowd be averaged walking speed, wol expression lane
Width；
C_BLD indicates the crowd evacuation fragility critical value under congestion state, and c_gp indicates that the grid number under congestion state is faced
Dividing value, c_dv indicate the design traffic volume under congestion state.
5. the Urban population according to claim 4 based on data in mobile phone evacuates risk dynamic evaluation method, feature exists
In: devoid of risk described in step 3 is that the grid crowd evacuation that the fragile value of evacuation of grid cell is less than under constrained state is fragile
Property critical value, low-risk is grid crowd evacuation fragility critical value of the fragile value of evacuation of grid cell under constrained state
With the grid crowd evacuation fragility critical value under congestion state, high risk is that the evacuation fragility value of grid cell is greater than crowded shape
Grid crowd evacuation fragility critical value under state.
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