CN108832645B - Active power distribution network energy storage configuration strategy based on regional prediction error index - Google Patents
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- H—ELECTRICITY
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- H—ELECTRICITY
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Abstract
The invention discloses an active power distribution network energy storage configuration strategy based on regional prediction error indexes. The current research covers the energy storage planning configuration scheme of a power supply side, a user side and a network side, and can effectively guide the site selection and volume determination analysis of the energy storage system under different requirements. Because the price of the existing energy storage device is higher, the practicability and the economical efficiency of the energy storage device are influenced. The invention divides the power distribution network into several control areas, realizes the quantification of the deviation of the output power and the planned power through the area prediction error index, and provides a control algorithm of the area outlet power and a configuration method of the energy storage power and capacity based on the feeder line control error index under the fixed exchange power control mode, thereby reducing the energy storage power capacity and stabilizing the power fluctuation of the control area caused by the prediction error. The invention can effectively reduce the energy storage configuration capacity and improve the economy of the whole system planning scheme.
Description
Technical Field
The invention relates to energy storage configuration under an active power distribution network with large-scale access of distributed energy, in particular to an active power distribution network energy storage configuration strategy based on regional prediction error indexes.
Background
As more and more distributed power sources are plugged into the power distribution grid, challenges are presented to the operation and control of the power system. The energy storage system is configured, so that the fluctuation of the output of the renewable energy sources can be stabilized, the randomness of the load can be reduced, the utilization rate of the renewable energy sources can be improved, and the running stability of the system can be improved. Therefore, the expansion planning of the power distribution network containing the stored energy becomes an important direction for the planning and development of the power distribution network.
The current research covers the energy storage planning configuration scheme of a power supply side, a user side and a network side, and can effectively guide the site selection and volume determination analysis of the energy storage system under different requirements. However, the energy storage device itself is expensive, which affects the practicability and economy of the planning scheme.
Disclosure of Invention
Under the limiting condition that the price of an energy storage device cannot be greatly reduced at present, the invention provides an active power distribution network energy storage configuration strategy based on regional prediction error indexes, and the energy storage configuration strategy can effectively reduce energy storage configuration capacity by comprehensively considering equipment type selection, system structure and operation mode of a secondary system in a planning stage so as to improve the economy of the whole system planning scheme.
Therefore, the invention adopts the following technical scheme: an active power distribution network energy storage configuration strategy based on regional prediction errors comprises the following steps:
the active power distribution network issues optimization targets to the controllers through a global optimization algorithm of a power distribution network master station, each controller controls one area and manages the power of the controllable distributed power supplies in the area according to the optimization targets;
the control area is regarded as a controllable distributed power supply under the action of the controller, and in a time interval of issuing an optimization target, the area outlet power follows the planned power; meanwhile, for the problem that the outlet power fluctuation deviates from the optimization target due to the prediction error of the uncontrollable power supply and the load in the area, establishing an area prediction error index for guiding an energy storage configuration strategy of the active power distribution network;
the stored energy is used for controlling the outlet power of the area where the stored energy is located, the stored energy power capacity is reduced, and power fluctuation of the control area caused by prediction errors is stabilized.
The outlet power of the controllable area is controllable by the control of the area controller, so the controllable area can be regarded as a controllable DG, and for the system to operate in a global optimization state, the outlet power of the desired area should be controlled to follow the planned power, i.e. the FCE index should be controlled to 0. If not, indicating that the outlet power of the area deviates from the planned value and the system operation deviates from the optimized state.
As a supplement to the technical scheme, energy storage is not used as an optimized operation variable of the power grid, and the method is only positioned in the outlet power prediction error of the control area, so that the required energy storage power is reduced, and the overall economy of the control system is improved.
Under an ideal condition, the predicted value of the power of the uncontrollable distributed energy resources in a certain control area is equal to the actual value, the predicted value of the load power is equal to the actual value, and the outlet power of the area and the controllable power generation power in the area are set according to global optimization. However, in actual cases, the predicted value and the actual value are different, and it is necessary to define an area prediction error. The regional prediction error represents the degree of deviation of the actual value from the predicted value in the region, and the larger the deviation degree is, the larger the required energy storage power is, and the smaller the deviation degree is otherwise.
The stored energy does not participate in global optimization, and the power values of the micro-combustion engine and the regional outlet are given according to the global optimization result. And when the actual power of the uncontrollable distributed power generation and the actual power of the load are equal to the predicted power, the area power is satisfied, and the sum of the area outlet power optimized value, the controllable distributed power generation optimized power and the uncontrollable distributed energy predicted value is equal to the load predicted value.
As a supplement to the above technical solution, the area control adopts a constant exchange power control mode to ensure that the actual value of the outlet power is equal to the optimized value; the prediction error of the region is not controlled by the controllable distributed energy, the power of the region is kept to be the optimized power, and the prediction error of the region is controlled by the stored energy.
As a supplement to the above technical solution, the outlet power of the area is controlled to be zero following the planned power, that is, the feeder control error indicator in the fixed switching power control mode.
As a supplement to the technical scheme, a deviation-free control method in a fixed exchange power control mode is adopted to adjust a feeder line control error in the fixed exchange power control mode by energy storage control.
The area control adopts a fixed exchange power control mode, the controllable distributed generation power is not changed, the size of the deviation between the area actual value and the optimized value is equal to the AFE according to the definitions of a Feeder Control Error (FCE) and an area prediction error index (AFE) in the fixed exchange power control mode, and a relation expression of the size of the deviation between the area predicted value and the actual value is represented.
The invention adopts a non-deviation control method of an FCE fixed exchange power control mode to adjust the energy storage control FCE. When the predicted value is equal to the actual value, ACE is 0, FCE is 0, and the energy storage power is 0; when the predicted value is not equal to the actual value, assuming that the AFE is increased and the FCE is increased, the stored energy is increased under the effect of integration, the FCE is decreased until the value is 0, and the control is finished. If the AFE is reduced, the control is the same.
As a complement to the above technical solution, the area control process includes:
s1, firstly, calculating a region prediction error, namely AFE, and comparing the region prediction error with the output power of stored energy, wherein the difference value is a feeder line control error under a fixed exchange power control mode, namely an FCE index;
s2, integrating the FCE index to obtain a result which is a reference value of the energy storage output power;
and S3, comparing the output power of the AFE with the output power of the stored energy continuously, and when the output power of the AFE is equal to the output power of the stored energy, completely balancing the prediction error of the power of the stored energy, and ending the control.
As a supplement to the above technical solution, the control is finished and the FCE is zero; the control system has higher response speed, and the AFE is determined to be unchanged in the control process; the AFE bias when FCE is zero is all adjusted by the tank.
As a supplement to the above technical solution, the AFE is an error between the actual power and the predicted power of the load and the uncontrollable DG, and this error satisfies normal distribution according to the central limit theorem; since the power of the tank is equal to the AFE, the tank power variation size also satisfies the normal distribution.
In addition to the above technical solution, the capacity of the stored energy is related to the sum of the integration time constant and the prediction error of the area in the day, i.e. to the control system and the prediction system of the area. The AFE meets normal distribution, and the scheduling periods are mutually independent, so that the sum of the area prediction errors of each day follows normal distribution, the energy storage configuration power is related to the area prediction error distribution of the control period, the prediction error distribution of the control period of the control area is calculated through data, and the energy storage power is configured according to a confidence level; the capacity of the stored energy is related to the sum of regional prediction errors in a scheduling period, the error and probability distribution of each day are calculated through data, and the capacity of the stored energy is configured according to a confidence level.
The capacity of the stored energy is related to the sum of the integration time constant and the control error of the area during the day, i.e. to the control system and the prediction system. Because the AFE meets normal distribution and the scheduling periods are independent of each other, the sum of the area prediction errors of each day follows normal distribution, the energy storage configuration power is related to the area prediction error distribution of the control period, and the energy storage power can be configured according to a confidence level after the data statistics shows the prediction error distribution of the control period of the control area. The capacity of the stored energy is related to the sum of the regional errors in one scheduling period, the probability distribution of the sum of the errors in each day is calculated through data, and the capacity of the stored energy can be configured according to a confidence level.
The same confidence level is adopted for configuring the energy storage capacity, and the capacity configuration equation is Pr (C is more than or equal to C)cfg) 1- α, wherein 1- α is the confidence level, PcfgThe general confidence level takes 0.99 for configuring the power of the stored energy.
Compared with the prior art, the invention has the following beneficial effects:
1. in the case of no stored energy, there is a large fluctuation in the outlet power due to prediction error. The energy storage is used for regional control, the fluctuation of outlet power is reduced, the FCE is basically kept to be 0, and the expected control effect is achieved.
2. The maximum values of the power and the capacity do not exceed the configuration values, which shows that the configuration values are reasonable. The curve of the energy storage power is similar to the AFE curve, which shows that the error of the area prediction is absorbed and filled by the energy storage, and the function of stabilizing the outlet power is achieved. The active power distribution network energy storage configuration based on the regional prediction error has the power of about 3% of the uncontrollable DG power, and can configure energy storage with smaller capacity under the same engineering condition, so that the energy storage cost in the region is reduced.
3. The method has reasonable configuration of energy storage power and energy, has better control effect, and reduces the fluctuation of outlet power; compared with the traditional energy storage configuration, the power and capacity of the energy storage are reduced, and therefore the cost of energy storage in the area is reduced. The achievement is applied to the planning operation of an actual power grid, and the energy storage configuration capacity can be limited within 10% of the total load capacity of the system on the basis of meeting the power target tracking control requirement.
Drawings
FIG. 1 is a flow chart of the configuration of the present invention;
fig. 2 is an exemplary schematic diagram of an active distribution network control area in an embodiment of the present invention;
fig. 3 is a control process diagram for adjusting the energy storage control FCE according to the embodiment of the present invention.
Detailed Description
The invention is further described below with reference to the accompanying drawings and specific embodiments.
The area control adopts a fixed exchange power control mode, the controllable distributed generation power is not changed, the size of the deviation between the area actual value and the optimized value is equal to the AFE according to the definitions of a Feeder Control Error (FCE) and an area prediction error index (AFE) in the fixed exchange power control mode, and a relation expression of the size of the deviation between the area predicted value and the actual value is represented.
The area control adopts a fixed exchange power control mode, and the actual value of the outlet power is required to be equal to the optimized value. The deviation of the area is not controlled by the controllable distributed energy source any more, the power of the area is kept to be the optimized power, and the deviation is controlled by the energy storage.
The outlet power of the controllable area is controllable by the control of the area controller, so the controllable area can be regarded as a controllable DG, and for the system to operate in a global optimization state, the outlet power of the desired area should be controlled to follow the planned power, i.e. the FCE index should be controlled to 0. If not, indicating that the outlet power of the area deviates from the planned value and the system operation deviates from the optimized state.
The invention adopts a non-deviation control method of an FCE fixed exchange power control mode to adjust the energy storage control FCE. When the predicted value is equal to the actual value, ACE is 0, FCE is 0, and the energy storage power is 0; when the predicted value is not equal to the actual value, assuming that the AFE is increased and the FCE is increased, the stored energy is increased under the effect of integration, the FCE is decreased until the value is 0, and the control is finished. If the AFE is reduced, the control is the same.
Energy storage power configuration: and the area control adopts a fixed exchange power control mode, namely, only the outlet power of the area is kept equal to the optimized value, and the controllable distributed power supply in the area is not adjusted. Control ends and FCE should be 0. Control system response speedFaster, the AFE can be considered unchanged during control. The AFE bias is adjusted entirely by the tank when FCE is 0, i.e. so that the tank power tends towards the AFE, i.e. P, in one control processESSAFE. This process needs to be stable.
The AFE is the error between the actual power and the predicted power of the load and the uncontrollable DG, and this error should satisfy the normal distribution according to the central limit theorem, and it can be seen from the above equation that the stored power should be equal to the AFE, and therefore the size of the stored power variation should also satisfy the normal distribution.
Wherein
Is expressed as PerrorVariance is
Is normally distributed.
The power of the stored energy satisfies the probability distribution, so the configuration of the stored energy is meaningful only under a certain confidence level. Configuration of the energy storage power is the equation Pr (P)ESS≥Pcfg) 1- α. Wherein 1-alpha is the confidence level, PcfgTo configure power for stored energy, a confidence level of 0.99 is typically taken to satisfy power system safety.
According to the configuration method, the energy storage configuration power is related to the prediction error distribution of the one-day control period of the control period, and the energy storage power can be configured according to the confidence level after the prediction error distribution of the one-day control period of the control region is counted by data. The capacity of the stored energy is related to the sum of regional errors of a scheduling period, the probability distribution of the sum of errors of each day is calculated through data, and the capacity of the stored energy can be configured according to a confidence level.
In an active distribution network, a typical schematic diagram of a control area is shown in fig. 2: there are three controllable regions in the figure, where PTThe power of a control area tie line, MT is a micro-combustion engine and belongs to a controllable distributed power supply; WG is wind powerThe PV is a photovoltaic generator and belongs to an uncontrollable distributed power supply; ESS is an energy storage system; the arrows at the nodes represent the load.
In order to improve the optimization efficiency and reduce the control pressure of a distribution network master station, the active distribution network adopts a layered distribution control framework: the global optimization algorithm of the ADN master station issues a long-time scale optimization target to the regional controller; and the region controller realizes the tracking of the global optimization target by adjusting the power of the controllable unit in the administrative region in real time according to the optimization target of the long-time scale. The control area can be regarded as a controllable distributed power supply under the action of the controller, and the area link power is expected to follow the planned power in the time interval of issuing the optimization target.
In the active power distribution network layered distribution architecture, if the stored energy is used as a global optimization variable of system operation, the requirement on the stored energy capacity/power configuration is high, and meanwhile, the boundary condition constraint of a system global optimization model is increased, so that the reliability and the economy of system operation are easily reduced. Therefore, in the active power distribution network control architecture, the energy storage is positioned in the area controllable resource and is mainly applied to the area tie line power deviation control.
Under an ideal condition, the predicted value of the power of the uncontrollable distributed energy resources in a certain control area is equal to the actual value, the predicted value of the load power is equal to the actual value, and the tie line power of the area and the controllable generating power in the area are set according to global optimization. However, in actual situations, the predicted value and the actual value are different, and the area prediction error is defined as:
AFE(t)＝[PL,f(t)-PL,a(t)]-[PDG,f(t)-PDG,a(t)] (1)
wherein P isDG,f(t),PL,f(t) predicting a point in a scheduling plan generally every 15 minutes according to a real-time predicted value of the uncontrollable distributed power supply and a real-time predicted value of the load, and fitting the real-time predicted values between the two points by adopting a straight line; pDG,a(t),PL,a(t) is the actual value of the uncontrollable distributed power supply and the actual value of the load. The regional prediction error represents the degree of deviation of the actual value from the predicted value in the region, and the larger the deviation degree is, the required stored energyThe higher the power, the lower the power otherwise.
In the active power distribution network architecture with layered distribution, the power values of the micro-combustion engine and the regional outlets are given according to the global optimization result. The area power satisfies equation (2) when the uncontrollable distributed power generation and the actual load power are equal to the predicted power
PT,o+PcDG,o+PuDG,f-PL,f＝0 (2)
Wherein P isT,oIs a regional tie line power optimization value, PcDG,oIs controllable distributed generation optimizing power, PuDG,fIs an uncontrollable distributed energy prediction value, PL,fIs the predicted value of the load.
The regional power of the actual situation should satisfy the formula (3)
PT,a+PcDG,a+PuDG,a+PESS-PL,a＝0 (3)
Wherein P isT,aIs the actual value of the power of the regional tie, PcDG,aIs controllable distributed actual power generation, PuDG,aIs an uncontrollable distributed energy actual value, PL,aIs the actual value of the load.
Subtracting the equation (2) and the equation (3), adopting a fixed exchange power control mode for area control, keeping the controllable distributed generation power unchanged, and obtaining an equation (4) according to the definitions of a feeder control error index (FCE) and an area prediction error index (AFE)
FCE＝AFE-PESS (4)
FCE is used to indicate the magnitude of the deviation between the actual and optimized values of the region, and AFE indicates the magnitude of the deviation between the predicted and actual values of the region. The area control adopts a fixed exchange power control mode, and the actual value of the power of the tie line needs to be ensured to be equal to the optimized value. The deviation of the area is not controlled by the controllable distributed energy source any more, the power of the area is kept to be the optimized power, and the deviation is controlled by the energy storage.
The tie line power of the controllable area is controllable by the control of the area controller, so the controllable area can be regarded as a controllable DG, and for the system to operate in a global optimization state, the tie line power of the desired area should be controlled to follow the planned power, i.e. the FCE index should be controlled to 0. If not, the power of the tie line of the area deviates from the planned value, and the system operation deviates from the optimized state.
The invention adopts a non-deviation control method of an FCE fixed exchange power control mode to adjust the energy storage control FCE, and the control equation is as follows:
FCE＝AFE-PESS (5)
t is an integration time constant.
When the predicted value is equal to the actual value, the AFE is 0, the FCE is 0, and the energy storage power is 0; when the predicted value is not equal to the actual value, assuming that the AFE is increased and the FCE is increased, the stored energy is increased under the effect of integration, the FCE is decreased until the value is 0, and the control is finished. If the AFE is reduced, the control is the same.
The specific control process is shown in fig. 3:
the area control process comprises the following steps: firstly, calculating a regional predictive control error, comparing the regional predictive control error with the output power of stored energy, and taking the difference as an FCE index; integrating the FCE index to obtain a result which is a reference value of the energy storage output power; and (4) continuously comparing the output power of the AFE with the output power of the stored energy, and when the output power of the AFE is equal to the output power of the stored energy, completely balancing the prediction error of the power of the stored energy, and ending the control.
The examples of the invention disclosed above are intended merely to aid in the description of the invention. The examples are not intended to be exhaustive or to limit the invention to the precise embodiments described. Obviously, many modifications and variations are possible in light of the above teaching. The examples were chosen and described in order to best explain the principles of the invention and the practical application, to thereby enable others skilled in the art to best utilize the invention. The invention is limited only by the claims and their full scope and equivalents.
Claims (2)
1. The active power distribution network energy storage configuration strategy based on the regional prediction error is characterized in that the active power distribution network issues optimization targets to controllers through a global optimization algorithm of a power distribution network master station, each controller controls one region, and the power of a controllable distributed power supply in the region is managed according to the optimization targets; the control area is regarded as a controllable distributed power supply under the action of the controller, and in a time interval of issuing an optimization target, the area outlet power follows the planned power; meanwhile, for the problem that the fluctuation of outlet power deviates from an optimization target due to the prediction error of an uncontrollable power supply and a load in a region, establishing a region prediction error index AFE for guiding an active power distribution network energy storage configuration strategy; the stored energy is used for controlling the outlet power of the area, the stored energy power capacity is reduced, and the power fluctuation of the control area caused by prediction errors is stabilized;
the AFE is the error between the actual power and the predicted power of the load and the uncontrollable DG, and this error satisfies the normal distribution according to the central limit theorem; the power of the energy storage is equal to the AFE, so the change size of the energy storage power also meets the normal distribution;
the capacity of the stored energy is related to the sum of an integral time constant and a prediction error of a region in a day, namely related to a control system and a prediction system of the region;
the energy storage configuration power is related to the regional prediction error distribution of the control time interval, the prediction error distribution of the control time interval of the control region is calculated through data, and the energy storage power is configured according to the confidence level; the capacity of the stored energy is related to the sum of regional prediction errors in a scheduling period, the error and probability distribution of each day are calculated through data, and the capacity of the stored energy is configured according to a confidence level;
energy storage is not used as a power grid optimization operation variable, and only outlet power prediction errors in a control area are positioned, so that the required energy storage power is reduced;
the area control adopts a fixed exchange power control mode to ensure that the actual value of the outlet power is equal to the optimized value; the prediction error of the region is not controlled by the controllable distributed energy, the power of the region is kept to be the optimized power, and the prediction error of the region is controlled by the stored energy;
the outlet power of the region follows the planned power, namely a prediction error index in a fixed switching power control mode is controlled to be zero;
adjusting a feeder line control error under a fixed exchange power control mode by adopting a non-deviation control method under the fixed exchange power control mode;
the area control process includes:
s1, firstly, calculating a region prediction error, namely AFE, and comparing the region prediction error with the output power of stored energy, wherein the difference value is a feeder line control error under a fixed exchange power control mode, namely an FCE index;
s2, integrating the FCE index to obtain a result which is a reference value of the energy storage output power;
and S3, comparing the output power of the AFE with the output power of the stored energy continuously, and when the output power of the AFE is equal to the output power of the stored energy, completely balancing the prediction error of the power of the stored energy, and ending the control.
2. The active power distribution network energy storage configuration strategy based on regional prediction error of claim 1, wherein control ends with FCE zero; the control system has higher response speed, and the AFE is determined to be unchanged in the control process; the AFE bias when FCE is zero is all adjusted by the tank.
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