CN108830728A - Garden integrated energy system returns of investment Quantitative Calculation Method towards multiagent - Google Patents
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Abstract
The present invention relates to technical field of power grid management, in particular to a kind of integrated energy system returns of investment Quantitative Calculation Method.A kind of garden integrated energy system returns of investment Quantitative Calculation Method towards multiagent, it includes the following steps：A. the cost model of single component in garden integrated energy system is established；B. the earnings pattern of single component in garden integrated energy system is established；C. the investment return computation model of single component in garden integrated energy system is established；D. the investment return computation model of the garden integrated energy system of investment subject is established；Quantitative analysis can be carried out to integrated energy system returns of investment using the present invention and reference and reference are provided.
Description
Technical field
The present invention relates to technical field of power grid management, in particular to a kind of integrated energy system returns of investment quantum chemical method side
Method.
Background technique
Integrated energy system is the generation, transmission and distribution durings planning, construction and operation etc., to the various energy
The links such as (energy supply network), conversion, storage, consumption, transaction implement organic coordination and optimization, and then the energy production formed is for disappearing one
Body system.China is in energy transition critical period, the outstanding problems such as energy cost height at present.Integrated energy system is to mentioning
High-energy source utilization efficiency realizes renewable energy scale exploitation, realizes the sustainable supply of the energy, improves social energy supply
Flexibility be of great significance with safety, be " construction cleaning low-carbon, safe and efficient modern energy system " topic in answer
The justice having.
Domestic 2016 Nian Shuanqing forums " the electric integrated energy resource system of a new generation " are held in Tianjin, have been passed through 973,863 and have been ground
Study carefully plan and start multiple integrated energy system science and technology items, and carries out this jointly with countries such as Singapore, Germany, Britain
Many international cooperations in field, content are related to many aspects such as basic theory, key technology, core equipment and engineering mimoir.When
The present, the comprehensive energy service based on integrated energy system become numerous electricity power enterprises, new energy enterprise, the important transition of power grid enterprises
Direction.
As electricity market reform promotes, garden becomes the important test block of electric Power Reform, and garden integrated energy system is built
If operation becomes comprehensive energy service provider main attack business.In the case where increment distribution is decontroled, polynary source lotus is accessed extensively, the comprehensive energy in garden
There is differentiation in source system investments interface, and diversification feature is also presented in investment subject, and analysis of Investment Benefit becomes intricate.Mesh
Have in terms of the economic Journal of Sex Research of preceding comprehensive energy system and some carried out quantization for single component units, such as distributed photovoltaic and surveyed
It calculates, economic indicator evaluation assessment has been carried out to distributed natural gas, distribution etc., but quantify returns of investment measuring and calculating and not yet carry out, in addition,
Interface belongs to the new problem generated under electric reshaping gesture, the integrated energy system interface returns of investment quantization point towards multiagent
There has been no related research results at present for reference for analysis.
Summary of the invention
The purpose of the present invention is：To carry out quantitative analysis to integrated energy system returns of investment, provide a kind of towards mostly main
The garden integrated energy system returns of investment Quantitative Calculation Method of body.
The technical scheme is that：Garden integrated energy system returns of investment Quantitative Calculation Method towards multiagent,
It includes the following steps：
A. the cost model of single component in garden integrated energy system is established；
The cost model of single component is by construction initial investment cost CiAnd operation period cost CoComposition；
Build initial investment cost CiCalculation method be：
Ci=Cw×W
Wherein：CwFor unit installed capacity cost；W is installed capacity；
Operation period cost CoCalculation method be：
C0=Cm+Cf+Ce+Cd+Cs
Wherein：CmFor O&M cost, CfFor fuel cost, CeFor station service cost, CdFor loan and interest and CsFor the expenses of taxation；
B. the earnings pattern of single component in garden integrated energy system is established；
The earnings pattern of single component takes in I by subsidy revenue, electricitysAnd hot/cold takes in IhcComposition；
C. the investment return computation model of single component in garden integrated energy system is established；
The investment return computation model of single component includes：Net present value (NPV) and the internal rate of return (IRR)；
D. the investment return computation model of the garden integrated energy system of investment subject is established；
The sum of the i component investment return that the investment return computation model of investment subject is invested for the investment subject, point
Not by total net present value (NPV) and internal overall income rate description.
Specifically, in step A：
O&M cost CmCalculation method be：
Cm=Ci×(P1+P2+P3)
Wherein：P1For O&M rate, P2For manpower cost rate, P3It is other in addition to O&M rate, human cost rate
Rate；
Fuel cost CfCalculation method be：
Cf=Ge×Ve×Pf
Wherein：GeFor annual generated energy, VeQuantity of fuel, P are consumed for unit generated energyfFor fuel price；
Station service cost CeCalculation method be：
Ce=Ge×Rf×Ps
Wherein：GeFor annual generated energy, RfFor station service ratio, PsFor sales rate of electricity；
Loan and interest and CdCalculation method be：
Cd=Ci×Rp×(Rl×(1+Rl)n4)/(((1+Rl)n4)-1)
Wherein：RpFor capital ratio, RlFor annual interest of providing a loan, n4 is the repaying time limit；
The C of the expenses of taxationsCalculation method be：
Wherein：Q1、Q2、Q3Respectively value-added tax, surtax, income tax；D1、D2、D3、D4Respectively value-added tax rate, increment
Tax income deduction rate, value-added tax add rate, income tax rate；RSFor income from sales, CfFor fuel cost, I is after-tax profit；Gained
Tax D4In calculating, enterprise's enjoyment three exempts from three and halves policy.
In step B：
Subsidy revenue is by initial cost subsidy revenue IbAnd electricity subsidy revenue IseComposition；
Initial cost subsidy revenue IbCalculation method be：
Ib=CPS×W
Wherein：CPSFor the subsidy of unit installed capacity initial cost, W is installed capacity；
Electricity subsidy revenue IseCalculation method be：
Ise=Gse×Pg
Wherein：GseFor the generated energy subsidized in year, PgTo subsidize electricity price；
Electricity takes in IsCalculation method be：
Is=Ge×(1-Rf)×Pe
Wherein：GeFor annual generated energy, RfFor station service ratio, PeFor electricity price, (personal mode is user's sales catalogue electricity
Valence, online mode are desulfurization stake electrovalences, and market-oriented trade mode is agreement electricity price)；
Hot/cold takes in IhcCalculation method be：
Ihc=Gh×Ph+Gc×Pc
Wherein, Ph、PcRespectively caloric value, cold valence；Gh、GcIt respectively sells heat, sell cooling capacity, when heat Calculation is converted to function
Rate.
In step C：
The calculation method of net present value (NPV) is：
Wherein：NPViFor the net present value (NPV) of i-th of component in integrated energy system, CFitShow for i-th of the net of component t
Gold flux；CIitFor the cash inflow of i-th of component t, COitFor the cash flow of i-th of component t；N is the longevity
Order period, i.e. the sum of construction period and operational period, i0For standard discount rate；
Wherein：n1、n2For construction period and the operation phase time limit；CiiFor at the beginning of the construction period of i-th of component in integrated energy system
Cost of investment, CioFor the operation period cost of i-th of component；
The calculation method of the internal rate of return (IRR) is：
Wherein：IRRiFor i-th of component internal earning rate in integrated energy system.
In step D：
The total net present value (NPV) NPV for the i component that investment subject A is investedACalculation method be：
The inside overall income rate i for the i component that investment subject is investedA *Calculation method be：
Beneficial effect：The garden integrated energy system returns of investment quantum chemical method mould towards multiagent that the present invention constructs
Type constructs garden integrated energy system single component cost model first, it is contemplated that construction initial investment cost runs the phase
O&M cost, financial cost, the expenses of taxation, fuel cost, house-service consumption etc.；Next constructs single group of garden integrated energy system
Part earnings pattern, including initial cost subsidy, hot/cold income, electricity income, degree electricity subsidy etc.；Again from net present value (NPV), internal gain model
Rate constructs garden integrated energy system single component investment return computation model, and the garden for finally constructing multiagent investment is comprehensive
Energy resource system investment return computation model is closed, the overall investment profitable result that investment subject invests multiple components is calculated, to synthesis
Energy resource system returns of investment carry out quantitative analysis and provide reference and reference.
Detailed description of the invention
Fig. 1 is step flow chart of the invention；
Fig. 2 is the cost model of integrated energy system single component；
Fig. 3 is the earnings pattern of integrated energy system single component.
Specific embodiment
The present invention will now be described in detail with reference to the accompanying drawings and examples.
Referring to attached drawing 1：Garden integrated energy system returns of investment Quantitative Calculation Method towards multiagent, it includes following
Step：
A. the cost model of single component in garden integrated energy system is established；
Under the lotus of diversification source, garden integrated energy system can by distributed generation resource (distributed photovoltaic, distributing wind-powered electricity generation,
Distributed natural gas, biomass etc.), increment distribution network, energy storage device, the composition such as load (referred to as single component)；
Referring to attached drawing 2, the cost model of single component is by construction initial investment cost CiAnd operation period cost CoComposition；
Build initial investment cost CiCalculation method be：
Ci=Cw×W
Wherein：CwFor unit installed capacity cost；W is installed capacity；
Operation period cost CoCalculation method be：
C0=Cm+Cf+Ce+Cd+Cs
Wherein：CmFor O&M cost, Cf(there are this cost, photovoltaic, wind for distributed natural gas, biomass for fuel cost
Electricity does not have), CeFor station service cost, CdFor loan and interest and CsFor the expenses of taxation；
O&M cost CmCalculation method be：
Cm=Ci×(P1+P2+P3)
Wherein：P1For O&M rate, P2For manpower cost rate, P3It is other in addition to O&M rate, human cost rate
Rate；
Fuel cost CfCalculation method be：
Cf=Ge×Ve×Pf
Wherein：GeFor annual generated energy, VeQuantity of fuel, P are consumed for unit generated energyfFor fuel price；
Station service cost CeCalculation method be：
Ce=Ge×Rf×Ps
Wherein：GeFor annual generated energy, RfFor station service ratio, PsFor sales rate of electricity；
Loan and interest and CdCalculation method be：
Cd=Ci×Rp×(Rl×(1+Rl)n4)/(((1+Rl)n4)-1)
Wherein：RpFor capital ratio, RlFor annual interest of providing a loan, n4 is the repaying time limit；
The C of the expenses of taxationsCalculation method be：
Wherein：Q1、Q2、Q3Respectively value-added tax, surtax, income tax；D1、D2、D3、D4Respectively value-added tax rate, increment
Tax income deduction rate, value-added tax add rate, income tax rate；RSFor income from sales, CfFor fuel cost, I is after-tax profit；Gained
Tax D4In calculating, enterprise's enjoyment three exempts from three and halves policy；
B. the earnings pattern of single component in garden integrated energy system is established；
Referring to attached drawing 3, the earnings pattern of single component takes in I by subsidy revenue, electricitysAnd hot/cold takes in IhcComposition；
Subsidy revenue is by initial cost subsidy revenue IbAnd electricity subsidy revenue IseComposition；
Initial cost subsidy revenue IbCalculation method be：
Ib=CPS×W
Wherein：CPSFor the subsidy of unit installed capacity initial cost, W is installed capacity；
Electricity subsidy revenue IseCalculation method be：
Ise=Gse×Pg
Wherein：GseFor the generated energy subsidized in year, PgTo subsidize electricity price；
Electricity takes in IsCalculation method be：
Is=Ge×(1-Rf)×Pe
Wherein：GeFor annual generated energy, RfFor station service ratio, PeFor electricity price, (personal mode is user's sales catalogue electricity
Valence, online mode are desulfurization stake electrovalences, and market-oriented trade mode is agreement electricity price)；
Hot/cold takes in IhcCalculation method be：
Ihc=Gh×Ph+Gc×Pc
Wherein, Ph、PcRespectively caloric value, cold valence；Gh、GcIt respectively sells heat, sell cooling capacity, when heat Calculation is converted to function
Rate.
C. the investment return computation model of single component in garden integrated energy system is established；
The investment return computation model of single component includes：Net present value (NPV) and the internal rate of return (IRR)；
Net present value (NPV) is to reflect technical solution in the dynamic of entire life cycle (containing the construction period and runing the phase) interior earning capacity
The calculation method of evaluation index, net present value (NPV) is：
Wherein：NPViFor the net present value (NPV) of i-th of component in integrated energy system, CFitShow for i-th of the net of component t
Gold flux；CIitFor the cash inflow of i-th of component t, COitFor the cash flow of i-th of component t；N is the longevity
Order period, i.e. the sum of construction period and operational period, i0For standard discount rate；
Wherein：n1、n2For construction period and the operation phase time limit；CiiFor at the beginning of the construction period of i-th of component in integrated energy system
Cost of investment, CioFor the operation period cost of i-th of component；
The calculation method of the internal rate of return (IRR) is：
Wherein：IRRiFor i-th of component internal earning rate in integrated energy system.
D. the investment return computation model of the garden integrated energy system of investment subject is established；
Integrated energy system any one component in garden is all invested by some investment subject, and an investment subject may be thrown simultaneously
Provide multiple components (including power supply, network)；Therefore, towards investment subject investment return measuring and calculating be multiple component investment returns it
With；The integrated energy system investment return of multiagent investment is calculated to be described with net present value (NPV) and the internal rate of return (IRR).
By taking investment subject A as an example, the total net present value (NPV) NPV for the i component that investment subject A is investedACalculation method be：
The inside overall income rate i for the i component that investment subject is investedA *Calculation method be：
To sum up, the above is merely preferred embodiments of the present invention, it is not intended to limit the scope of the present invention.It is all
Within the spirit and principles in the present invention, any modification, equivalent replacement, improvement and so on should be included in protection of the invention
Within the scope of.
Claims (5)
1. the garden integrated energy system returns of investment Quantitative Calculation Method towards multiagent, which is characterized in that it includes following
Step：
A. the cost model of single component in garden integrated energy system is established；
The cost model of single component is by construction initial investment cost CiAnd operation period cost CoComposition；
Build initial investment cost CiCalculation method be：
Ci=Cw×W
Wherein：CwFor unit installed capacity cost；W is installed capacity；
Operation period cost CoCalculation method be：
C0=Cm+Cf+Ce+Cd+Cs
Wherein：CmFor O&M cost, CfFor fuel cost, CeFor station service cost, CdFor loan and interest and CsFor the expenses of taxation；
B. the earnings pattern of single component in garden integrated energy system is established；
The earnings pattern of single component takes in I by subsidy revenue, electricitysAnd hot/cold takes in IhcComposition；
C. the investment return computation model of single component in garden integrated energy system is established；
The investment return computation model of single component includes：Net present value (NPV) and the internal rate of return (IRR)；
D. the investment return computation model of the garden integrated energy system of investment subject is established；
The sum of the i component investment return that the investment return computation model of investment subject is invested for the investment subject, respectively by
Total net present value (NPV) and internal overall income rate description.
2. the garden integrated energy system returns of investment Quantitative Calculation Method towards multiagent as described in claim 1, special
Sign is, in step A：
O&M cost CmCalculation method be：
Cm=Ci×(P1+P2+P3)
Wherein：P1For O&M rate, P2For manpower cost rate, P3Take for other in addition to O&M rate, human cost rate
Rate；
Fuel cost CfCalculation method be：
Cf=Ge×Ve×Pf
Wherein：GeFor annual generated energy, VeQuantity of fuel, P are consumed for unit generated energyfFor fuel price；
Station service cost CeCalculation method be：
Ce=Ge×Rf×Ps
Wherein：GeFor annual generated energy, RfFor station service ratio, PsFor sales rate of electricity；
Loan and interest and CdCalculation method be：
Cd=Ci×Rp×(Rl×(1+Rl)n4)/(((1+Rl)n4)-1)
Wherein：RpFor capital ratio, RlFor annual interest of providing a loan, n4 is the repaying time limit；
The C of the expenses of taxationsCalculation method be：
Wherein：Q1、Q2、Q3Respectively value-added tax, surtax, income tax；D1、D2、D3、D4Respectively value-added tax rate, value-added tax income
Deduction rate, value-added tax add rate, income tax rate；RSFor income from sales, CfFor fuel cost, I is after-tax profit；Income tax D4Meter
In calculation, enterprise's enjoyment three exempts from three and halves policy.
3. the garden integrated energy system returns of investment Quantitative Calculation Method towards multiagent as claimed in claim 2, special
Sign is, in step B：
Subsidy revenue is by initial cost subsidy revenue IbAnd electricity subsidy revenue IseComposition；
Initial cost subsidy revenue IbCalculation method be：
Ib=CPS×W
Wherein：CPSFor the subsidy of unit installed capacity initial cost, W is installed capacity；
Electricity subsidy revenue IseCalculation method be：
Ise=Gse×Pg
Wherein：GseFor the generated energy subsidized in year, PgTo subsidize electricity price；
Electricity takes in IsCalculation method be：
Is=Ge×(1-Rf)×Pe
Wherein：GeFor annual generated energy, RfFor station service ratio, PeFor electricity price；
Hot/cold takes in IhcCalculation method be：
Ihc=Gh×Ph+Gc×Pc
Wherein, Ph、PcRespectively caloric value, cold valence；Gh、GcIt respectively sells heat, sell cooling capacity, when heat Calculation is converted to power.
4. the garden integrated energy system returns of investment Quantitative Calculation Method towards multiagent as claimed in claim 3, special
Sign is, in step C：
The calculation method of net present value (NPV) is：
Wherein：NPViFor the net present value (NPV) of i-th of component in integrated energy system, CFitFor the free cash flow of i-th of component t
Amount；CIitFor the cash inflow of i-th of component t, COitFor the cash flow of i-th of component t；N is week in service life
Phase, i.e. the sum of construction period and operational period, i0For standard discount rate；
Wherein：n1、n2For construction period and the operation phase time limit；CiiFor i-th of component in integrated energy system construction initial investment at
This, CioFor the operation period cost of i-th of component；
The calculation method of the internal rate of return (IRR) is：
Wherein：IRRiFor i-th of component internal earning rate in integrated energy system.
5. the garden integrated energy system returns of investment Quantitative Calculation Method towards multiagent as claimed in claim 4, special
Sign is, in step D：
The total net present value (NPV) NPV for the i component that investment subject A is investedACalculation method be：
The inside overall income rate i for the i component that investment subject is investedA *Calculation method be：
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Citations (2)
| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CN106022537A (en) * | 2016-05-31 | 2016-10-12 | 北京中电飞华通信股份有限公司 | Micro-power grid economic operation optimization method and micro-power grid economic operation optimization system suitable for reform of electric power system |
| US20180130143A1 (en) * | 2016-11-08 | 2018-05-10 | Korea Institute Of Energy Research | Complex energy system in bidirectional energy network and control method thereof |
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| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CN106022537A (en) * | 2016-05-31 | 2016-10-12 | 北京中电飞华通信股份有限公司 | Micro-power grid economic operation optimization method and micro-power grid economic operation optimization system suitable for reform of electric power system |
| US20180130143A1 (en) * | 2016-11-08 | 2018-05-10 | Korea Institute Of Energy Research | Complex energy system in bidirectional energy network and control method thereof |
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