CN108027913A

CN108027913A - Feasibility analysis device

Info

Publication number: CN108027913A
Application number: CN201680054140.4A
Authority: CN
Inventors: 堀井洋; 堀井洋一
Original assignee: Hitachi Ltd
Current assignee: Hitachi Ltd
Priority date: 2015-12-18
Filing date: 2016-10-21
Publication date: 2018-05-11
Also published as: WO2017104264A1; JP2017111695A; JP6457926B2

Abstract

The feasibility analysis device (1) of the present invention is stored with revenue and expenditure construction and describes file (31).Feasibility analysis device (1) accepts user and causal variable and outcome variable is specified among the variable that revenue and expenditure construction description file (31) is included.Then, feasibility analysis device (1) shows the figure of the relation of causal variable and outcome variable after other variables are considered as fixed variable.In addition, feasibility analysis device (1) is accepted, user specifies target variable among the variable that revenue and expenditure construction description file (31) is included, be retrieved variable and restriction variable.Then, feasibility analysis device (1) calculates the variable that is retrieved for being used for making target variable take desired value after other variables are considered as fixed variable.

Description

Feasibility analysis device

Technical field

The present invention relates to feasibility analysis device.

Background technology

Enterprise will predict the profitability of the business and be evaluated certainly before execution business.As general evaluation Method, there are as below methods：Multiple preconditions such as income, expenditure, depreciation cost, interest payment, tax are set, for each premise Condition, calculates the business indicator such as accumulated profit volume.The exemplary of business is engineering (project).In engineering, most First period is invested, and investment is recycled by the income being persistently included in multiple periods afterwards.

The cash flow projections device of patent document 1 according to the actual values such as the past tax rate, borrowing rate, the rent rate of change come Calculate the predicted values such as the tax rate, borrowing rate, the rent rate of change in future.Then, according to the tax rate, borrowing rate, the rent rate of change Deng randomly obtaining predicted value one by one respectively.Moreover, the calculating formula input for the scene inscape selected user is got Predicted value, calculate the prediction cash flow in each period in future.At this time, cash flow projections device will predict cash flow as probability It is distributed and exports.

The feasibility assessment device of patent document 2 is stored with revenue and expenditure construction and describes file.Revenue and expenditure construction describes file storage There are the calculating formula for the revenue and expenditure construction for representing engineering and the premise value to calculating formula input.Premise value is for example by discrete type probability The pattern definition of distribution.The feasibility assessment device of patent document 2 reads revenue and expenditure construction and describes file, such as with probability distribution Pattern shows the income and revenue and expenditure in future.

Prior art literature

Patent document

Patent document 1：Japanese Unexamined Patent Publication 2004-38804 publications

Patent document 2：Japanese Unexamined Patent Publication 2015-32023 publications

The content of the invention

For example, as the project impacted to profit, it is contemplated that have the turnover, floating expense and constant expense.Enterprise Pay attention to sensitivity analysis as follows：Increase and decrease each project, as a result, which kind of degree is profit increase and decrease.For example, floating In the case that expense impacts maximum to profit, enterprise prior to the increase for the volume of carrying on the business and the reduction of constant expense and The reduction for the research floating expense that takes the lead in.Spider diagram and whirlwind figure are frequently utilized for such sensitivity analysis.It is and then also frequent Using gimmick as target homing, target homing is following gimmick：The desired value of profit is first set, mesh is realized in then inverse operation The combination of the turnover, floating expense and constant expense as scale value.

However, the cash flow projections device of patent document 1 and the feasibility assessment device of patent document 2 can be before making On the basis of proposing change, such as profit equivalence is emulated, but to carry out sensitivity analysis and target homing then in addition to need Want countermeasure.Constructed using revenue and expenditure describe file attempt sensitivity analysis for example for profit, using some profit level as In the case of the target homing of target, input condition is made on table software for calculation first, next gives the input condition Sensitivity analysis application etc..The making of input condition on the table software for calculation needs experience and time.Thus, of the invention can The purpose of row analytical equipment, which is to be constructed according to revenue and expenditure, describes file to carry out sensitivity analysis and mesh with not spending time Mark is searched.

The feasibility analysis device of the present invention is stored with revenue and expenditure construction and describes file.Feasibility analysis device accept user from This situation of specified causal variable and outcome variable among the variable that revenue and expenditure construction description file is included.Then, feasibility Analytical equipment shows the figure of the relation of causal variable and outcome variable after other variables are considered as fixed variable Shape.In addition, feasibility analysis device accept user constructed from revenue and expenditure describe specify among the variable that is included of file target variable, It is retrieved and variable and restricts variable this situation.Then, feasibility analysis device by other variables be considered as fixed variable it Afterwards, the variable that is retrieved for being used for making target variable take desired value is calculated.

On other units, illustrate in a specific embodiment.

In accordance with the invention it is possible to describing file based on revenue and expenditure construction carries out sensitivity analysis and target with not spending time Search.

Brief description of the drawings

(a), (b) and (c) of Fig. 1 is the figure for the sensitivity analysis for illustrating comparative example.

Fig. 2 is the figure for the target homing for illustrating comparative example.

Fig. 3 is the structure chart of feasibility analysis device.

Fig. 4 is to show that revenue and expenditure construction describes the figure of file.

Fig. 5 is to show that revenue and expenditure construction describes the figure of a part for file.

Fig. 6 is the figure for the spider diagram (table schema) for showing present embodiment.

Fig. 7 is the figure for the spider diagram (chart-pattern) for showing present embodiment.

Fig. 8 is the figure for the whirlwind figure (table schema) for showing present embodiment.

Fig. 9 is the figure for the whirlwind figure (chart-pattern) for showing present embodiment.

Figure 10 is the figure for the target homing figure (figure and table schema) for showing present embodiment.

Figure 11 is the figure for the target homing figure (figure and table schema) for showing present embodiment.

Figure 12 is the figure of an example of the target homing figure (table schema) for showing present embodiment.

Figure 13 is the flow chart of disposed of in its entirety order.

Description of reference numerals

1：Feasibility analysis device；11：Central control unit；12：Input unit；13：Output device；14：Main memory saving Put；15：Auxilary unit；21：Specify receiving unit；22：Operational part；23：Display control unit；31：Revenue and expenditure construction describes file.

Embodiment

(comparative example)

According to Fig. 1, illustrate the sensitivity analysis of comparative example.Now, it is set to " profit=the turnover-constant expense-floating Premised on simple quantitative relation is set up as dynamic expense ", using the sensitivity analysis application of comparative example come into line sensitivity Analysis.The user of sensitivity analysis application makes the table as Fig. 1 (a) first.Next, user is to sensitivity analysis application Input the table of Fig. 1 (a).Then, sensitivity analysis application shows spider diagram (Fig. 1 (b)) and whirlwind figure (Fig. 1 (c)).

In the spider diagram of Fig. 1 (b), broken line slope of a curve represents the turnover, constant expense and floating expense point The other influence caused by profit.The point of the profit value maximum of the longitudinal axis corresponds to the feelings that floating expense reduces 20% than standard situation Shape.The point of the profit value minimum of the longitudinal axis corresponds to situation of the floating expense than standard situation increase by 20%.That is, floating expense It is maximum with being influenced caused by profit.In addition, the transverse axis of Fig. 1 (b) represents the rate of change.

In the whirlwind figure of Fig. 1 (c), the width with figure represents the turnover, constant expense and floating expense respectively to profit Influence caused by profit.For example, when range changing of the floating expense in 400,000 yen of 9,600,000 yen~Isosorbide-5-Nitrae as shown in Fig. 1 (a), Range changing of the profit at 2,600,000 yen~7,400,000 yen.The width with figure of floating expense is maximum.That is, floating expense It is maximum with being influenced caused by profit.

User is in order to practically make the table of Fig. 1 (a), it is necessary to experience and time.First, actually except the turnover, solid Determine beyond expense and floating expense, also there is the project largely impacted to profit.Inherently it is difficult to from these projects Among find out significant project.It is also difficult to determine the amplitude of fluctuation (± 20% etc.) for standard situation.And then example Such as in the case where the turnover and constant expense concurrently and independently change, the construction of (2 dimension ground performance 3-dimensional space) table becomes multiple It is miscellaneous.Final result is more to carry out analysis being meticulous and attending to minutes details in everything, and the row and row of table more increase.

In whirlwind figure (Fig. 1 (c)), such as 9,600,000 yen of maximums 740 for corresponding to profit of minimum value of floating expense Ten thousand yen.1,4400000 yen of 2,600,000 yen of minimum values for corresponding to profit of maximum of floating expense.However, in floating expense In the range of 400,000 yen of 9,600,000 yen~Isosorbide-5-Nitrae, profit is possible to can minimalization or maximum.In profit In the case that the minimum of the maximum situation bigger than 7,400,000 yen or profit is smaller than 2,600,000 yen, the energy on Fig. 1 (c) The value of the maximum or minimum value that are enough read as profit does not have meaning.Moreover, for sensitivity analysis application, determine The processing of the amplitude of fluctuation of profit and the amplitude of fluctuation are exhausted according to the processing of the projects such as the order arrangement turnover from big to small Non- is easy, it is necessary to be defined by user and set.

According to Fig. 2, illustrate the target homing of comparative example.Fig. 2 is the constitutional index computation constitutional index of comparative example The example of (BMI, Body Mass Index).BMI be by weight (kg) divided by height (m) square obtained from value.Now, Such as all ideal values that common BMI is provided of practitioner to some workplace.The height of practitioner is for each personal It is various, it is not easy to change.However, the weight of practitioner depends on personal effort, it may occur however that certain degree Change.Thus, height is still set to maintain the present situation, and the body for the ideal value for reaching BMI is calculated for each practitioner Weight.

The operation of user (commission doctor etc.) on Fig. 2 of constitutional index application is as follows.

(1) in cell B6, inputted as ideal value " 23.07 ".

(2) height " 153 " of some practitioner is input to cell B3.

(3) constitutional index is applied carries out inverse operation by weight, and inverse operation result " 54 " is shown in cell by visuognosis This case that B4, store inverse operation result as needed.

(4) processing on (2) and (3) described in all practitioner's repetitions.

Such user must repeat input corresponding with the quantity of practitioner.In the example in figure 2, variable is body High, weight and BMI this 3, it is considerably less.However, it is also possible to there are 10 kinds, target is being determined as by a kind therein for variable It is worth after making the value various change of 8 kinds of variables, the value of remaining a kind of variable is subjected to inverse operation.In this case, use The input burden at family is very big.

After, with reference to figure etc., illustrate embodiment (being known as " present embodiment ").

(feasibility analysis device)

According to Fig. 3, illustrate the structure of feasibility analysis device 1.Feasibility analysis device 1 is common computer.It is feasible Property analytical equipment 1 there is output device 13, the primary storages such as input unit 12, the display such as central control unit 11, keyboard, mouse Device 14 and auxilary unit 15.They are connected with each other by bus.In main storage means 14, specified receiving unit 21, fortune Calculation portion 22 and display control unit 23 are program.After, in the case where main body to be recited as to " 00 ", central control unit 11 read each program from auxilary unit 15, after main storage means 14 are loaded into, realize the function of each program (in detail Appearance will be described later).Auxilary unit 15 stores revenue and expenditure construction and describes file 31.

(revenue and expenditure construction describes file)

According to Fig. 4, illustrate that revenue and expenditure construction describes file 31.In revenue and expenditure constructs and describes file 31, with being stored in prefix The subregion on (prefix) column 101 associates, and project is stored with item (project) column 102, on operator (operator) column 103 Operator is stored with, value 1 is stored with value1 (value 1) column 104, value 2 is stored with value2 (value 2) column 105, in value3 (value 3) column 106 is stored with value 3.

The subregion on prefix columns 101 is all " Item B " in any row.Although not recording in Fig. 4, for example, dividing Area stores the title of engineering for the item columns 102 of the row of " ProjectName (engineering name) ".Important in the present embodiment is point Area is " row of Item B ", " Item B " mean " to define ".On definition, have and the calculating formula of computational item purpose value is determined The situation of justice, the value identified project situation in itself, with parameter come the situation of the probability distribution of value identified project, to project Situation that the annual gradient of value is defined etc. (detailed content will be described later).Each row of Fig. 4 is divided into following Class1 ~6 illustrate.

(Class1：With the relevant calculating formula of arithmetic)

The row 131,133,137,140,141,144,148 and 152 of Fig. 4 defines and the relevant calculating of arithmetic Formula.For example, row 131 defines calculating formula as " profit=turnover-constant expense-floating expense ".Row 133 defines Calculating formula as " turnover=selling price × sales volume ".Row 137 define " constant expense=personal services+space expenses " this The calculating formula of sample.Row 140 defines calculating formula as " the floating expense=electricity charge+expenses for medicine+component expense ".

(type 2：With the relevant calculating formula of computing in addition to arithmetic)

Row 132 and 156 defines and the relevant calculating formula of computing in addition to arithmetic.Row 132 defines root Come to calculate IRR (internal rate of return (IRR), Internal Rate of according to predetermined method according to investment and (before repayment) profit Return).Now, it is " m " to be set to during engineering, determines to represent the formula 1 of the relation of the cash flow in each period as follows. Moreover, IRR " r " of formula 1 is set to the equation of unknown number calculated by solving.r(0<R) it is discount rate.

C₀+C₁/(1+r)+C₂/(1+r)²+…+C_m/(1+r)^m=0 (formula 1)

C_nFor the cash flow of the n-th phase (n=0,1,2 ..., m).Cash flow is the profit (turnover-fixed charge before repayment With-floating expense).C₀It is consistent with initial investment.Investment is the amount of money flowed out as cash and to outside enterprise, so C₀ It is always negative value.C_n(n=1,2 ..., m) had both existed for the situation of positive value, and there is also the situation for negative value.It is general and Speech, C_nNegative value is taken (in the period of after investment soon) during n is small, (equipment etc. is stably run when n becomes sufficiently large Period) take the situation of positive value more.

Monetary value and the n-th phase (n ≠ 0) of the 0th phase (current time) invested though monetary value denomination It is identical also comparably to evaluate.In order to evaluate the cash flow C of the n-th phase (n ≠ 0) using the monetary value at current time_n, it is necessary to By C_nDivided by (1+r)ⁿ.Then, the left side of formula 1 means the cash flow of the generation of whole period during engineering at current time Under monetary value, equivalent to the evaluation volume of the engineering under current time.The evaluation volume is known as net present value (NPV).IRR is such as formula 1 Set up such, i.e. discount rate r as net present value (NPV) becomes " 0 ".IRR is bigger, and the value as investment is bigger.

Row 156 defines according to investment and repays year according to predetermined method come computing depreciation expense.As it is known that Sample, result obtained from subtracting predetermined remaining book value from investment are set to want service payments, service payments divided by will repay Value becomes the depreciation cost (quota method) in each period also obtained from year.In addition it is possible to will be to wanting service payments or the preceding end of term The amount of money obtained from book value is multiplied by the predetermined rate of redemption determined for each period is (fixed as the depreciation cost in each period Rate method).Remaining book value can also be " 0 "." Depreciation1 " represents to calculate the depreciation in each period according to quota method Take, " Depreciation2 " represents to calculate the depreciation cost in each period according to fixed rate method.

(type 3：The mode being defined in itself to the value of project)

Although not recorded as an example in Fig. 4, such as when the item columns 102 in certain row record sale price Lattice, in the case of on operator columns 103 recording "=", recording " 100 " on value1 columns 104, which represents sale price Lattice are fixed value as " 100 ".

(type 4：In the way of probability distribution by continuous type is defined the value of project)

When that can not be defined some input value as specific value, generally using the probability distribution of the input value. For example it is assumed that taking normal distribution for input value, two parameters as average value and variance are frequently utilized that to determine its distribution Specific shape.Although not recorded in Fig. 4, " selling price " can be recorded on the item columns 102 of certain row, Operator columns 103 record that " variance 10 ", is recorded " 100 " on value1 columns 104.At this time, which represents selling price to utilize The probability distribution for the continuous type that two parameters as average value " 100 " and variance " 10 " determine.

(type 5：With the probability distribution of discrete type come the mode that is defined to the value of project)

The probability distribution of the continuous type of type 4 can also further be simplified, using average value and accuracy rate this It is determined as the distribution of the input value of precondition two parameter discretes of sample.For example, row 134 represents selling price to utilize The probability distribution for the discrete type that two parameters as average value " 10,000 " and accuracy rate " 90% " determine.Detailed content saves Slightly, in this embodiment, as the value of selling price, " 9,000 " is produced with the probability of " 5% ", and " 10,000 " with the probability of " 90% " Produce, " 11,000 " is produced with the probability of " 5% ".On row 135,138,139,142,145~147,149,150,153, 154th, 157 and 158 is same.

(type 6：The mode being defined to the change rate of the value of project)

The row 136 of Fig. 4 represents that the value of the selling price in some period is the selling price to the and then period before it Value be multiplied by value obtained from change rate " 1.05 ".On row 143,151 and 155, the selling price is equally applicable to Explanation.

(revenue and expenditure construction describes the variable of file)

From the point of view of general, it is the quantitative correlation as the variable of n species of regulation that revenue and expenditure construction, which describes file 31, N members simultaneous equations mathematical model.The mathematical model can be simplified and show as formula 2.So-called variable is constructed with revenue and expenditure The project described in file 31 is synonymous.

F(x₁, x₂, x₃..., x_n)=0 (formula 2)

Here, for example, x₁=profit, x₂=the turnover, x₃=constant expense.

Now, it is 3 classifications by the variable classification of formula 2.The variable of 1st classification is for a user for analysis object It is in variable, be substituted into the variable being specifically worth significant for a user.The variable of 2nd classification is for a user Do not become the variable of analysis object, substituted into the variable of the value of standard temporarily.It is point for a user that the variable of 3rd classification, which is, The variable beyond in the variable of the object, variable of the 1st classification is analysed, is by by the value and the 2nd classification of the variable of the 1st classification The value of variable be updated to formula 2 and calculate the variable of the value as a result.

All variables are according to circumstances designated as any classification in such 3 classifications.For example, as formula 2 Variable, is set to that there are x₁、x₂、x₃And x₄.The user of feasibility analysis device 1 is now by x₁、x₂、x₃And x₄In, x₁And x₂Object as analysis.Then, user considers to want some specific value being updated to x₁, calculate feasibility analysis device 1 x₂Value.User is not by x₃And x₄Object (temporarily not interested) as analysis.However, ought not only x₁, x₃And x₄Value Also during determined, feasibility analysis device 1 can not calculate x₂Value.

Thus, when user is specified x₁And x₂During the meaning as the object of analysis, feasibility analysis device 1 detects x₃And x₄It is not designated, appropriate value is updated to x temporarily with not being easily noticed by the users especially₃And x₄.That is, x₁For The variable of 1 classification, x₂For the variable of the 3rd classification, x₃And x₄For the variable of the 2nd classification.It is updated in this way, ought arbitrarily be worth Except x₂During variable in addition, feasibility analysis device 1 by solving the equation of formula 2 according to method known to Newton method etc., Unknown number x can be calculated₂。

(substitution to variable)

In the content, illustrate for certain 1 value to be updated to the example of variable.However, as described below, including the example Including son, also there are other methods that the corresponding value substituted into is defined.

#1：It is defined as specific 1 value.

#2：It is defined as the value of the probability distribution according to continuous type.

#3：It is defined as the value of the probability distribution according to discrete type.

#4：It is defined as minimum value and maximum.

#5：It is defined as the multiple discrete values being arranged at equal intervals between the minimum and maximum.

In addition, #1, #2 and #3 are also on the books in patent document.

(revenue and expenditure construction describes a part for file)

According to Fig. 5, illustrate that revenue and expenditure construction describes a part for file 31.In the present embodiment, on for example electric of Fig. 4 The row 142 of valency is the aggregate of row 142a~142e of Fig. 5.In Fig. 4, to be non-display beyond wherein 142c.On row 142a, 142b and 142c, it is also on the books in patent document, so herein without be described in detail, correspond respectively to described #1, #2 with And #3.

The electricity price that row 142d is denoted as variable is made of minimum value " 15.0 " and maximum " 20.0 ".Row 142e is represented Electricity price as variable is by carrying out the scope from minimum value " 15.0 " untill maximum " 20.0 " 10 times with impartial length What is split and generated as a result adds up to 11 centrifugal pumps to form.That is, as user nominated bank 142d, feasibility Analytical equipment 1 generates " 15.0 " and " 20.0 ", the value as electricity price.As user nominated bank 142e, feasibility analysis device 1 Generation " 15.0,15.5,16.0 ..., 20.0 " this 11 centrifugal pumps, the value as electricity price.

In the case where being designated as the 2nd classification as the electricity price of variable, as long as the value for being updated to electricity price is by row 142a " 17.5 " (1 fixed value) of definition is just enough.On the other hand, the situation of the 1st classification is designated as in the electricity price as variable Under, certainly, user can also directly merely enter 1 value that should be substituted into.However, feasibility analysis device 1 for example can also basis Row 142d generates two values, each value is updated to electricity price, as respective as a result, calculating the variable of 2 group of the 3rd classification Value.And then feasibility analysis device 1 can also for example generate 11 values according to row 142e, and each value is updated to electricity price, as It is respective as a result, calculating the value of the variable of 11 group of the 3rd classification.

And then, additionally it is possible to it is that user specifies some variables (such as x₁) variable as the 1st classification, separately, refer to Variable (such as x of the definite value in some range₂).Then, feasibility analysis device 1 can be based on x₂In some range Such restriction condition, calculates the value of the variable of multigroup 3rd classification.At this time, feasibility analysis device 1 preferably follow #4 or The definition of person #5 generates x₂Value.

Similarly, user can also designated value some range two variables (such as x₁And x₂), as the 1st The variable of classification.At this time, in addition, feasibility analysis device 1, which is preferably also, follows the definition of #4 or #5 to generate x₁And x₂'s Value.11 x are generated according to the definition of #5 for example, working as₁Value, 11 x are similarly generated according to the definition of #5₂Value when, Combination producing 11 × 11=121 groups of the variable of 1 classification.Then, feasibility analysis device 1 can calculate 121 group of the 3rd classification Variable value.

(sensitivity analysis in present embodiment)

Figure for the sensitivity analysis of present embodiment is cobweb Figure 41 (Fig. 6) and 45 (Fig. 7) and whirlwind Figure 51 (Fig. 8) and 55 (Fig. 9).

According to Fig. 6, illustrate the spider diagram (table schema) 41 of present embodiment.Cobweb Figure 41 is, for example, 11 as a whole The matrix that row 11 arranges.Now, being set to user specifies revenue and expenditure construction to describe change of the electricity price as the 1st classification in the variable of file 31 Amount.As described, revenue and expenditure construction, which describes file 31, can define the value (row 142a~142e of Fig. 5) of 5 groups of electricity prices.Work as user When specifying row 142e (the definition method of #5) therein, feasibility analysis device 1 makes the scale of the transverse axis of Fig. 6.The quarter of transverse axis Degree is by the way that the successive value from minimum value " 15.0 " untill maximum " 20.0 " is divided into 10 " (20.0- at equal intervals 15.0)/10=0.5 " and generate 11 centrifugal pumps.

Next, the selling price that user constructs revenue and expenditure in the variable for describing file 31 is appointed as the variable of the 1st classification. When user specifies the definition method of #5, feasibility analysis device 1 makes the scale of the longitudinal axis of Fig. 6.The scale of the longitudinal axis is to pass through By the successive value from minimum value " 95,000 " untill maximum " 105,000 " be divided into 10 at equal intervals " (105,000-95, 000)/10=1,000 " and generate 11 centrifugal pumps.

Next, the IRR that user constructs revenue and expenditure in the variable for describing file 31 is appointed as the variable of the 3rd classification.Then, All revenue and expenditure constructions in addition to electricity price, selling price and IRR are described the variable of file 31 by feasibility analysis device 1 It is considered as the variable of the 2nd classification.All variables of variable of the feasibility analysis device 1 on being considered as the 2nd classification, construct from revenue and expenditure Describe file 31 and obtain typical value.Specifically, feasibility analysis device 1 retrieves operator with "=" for search key Column 103, obtains the value on the value1 columns 104 of corresponding row.

It is considered as next, each typical value is updated to revenue and expenditure construction and described in file 31 by feasibility analysis device 1 All variables of 2nd classification.And then 1 centrifugal pump in 11 centrifugal pumps is updated to revenue and expenditure structure by feasibility analysis device 1 Make the electricity price as the variable for being designated as the 1st classification described in file 31.It is in addition, 1 in 11 centrifugal pumps is discrete Value is updated to the selling price as the variable for being designated as the 1st classification.Then, it is used as by the way that revenue and expenditure is constructed description file 31 Equation and solve, so as to calculate the value of the IRR as the variable for being designated as the 3rd classification.Feasibility analysis device 1 is on all The combination (have 11 × 11=121) of centrifugal pump repeat the processing, obtain the value of 121 IRR as a result.

Finally, the value of 121 IRR is stored in the unit of the transverse axis of Fig. 6 and the intersection point of the longitudinal axis by feasibility analysis device 1 Lattice, show Fig. 6.For example, " 9.62 " of cell 42 are feasibility analysis devices 1 by the way that " 15.00 " are updated to electricity price, will " 95,000 " is updated to selling price, the value for the IRR that typical value is updated to other variables beyond IRR and is calculated.

According to Fig. 7, illustrate the spider diagram (chart-pattern) 45 of present embodiment.Fig. 7 shows of the same nature with Fig. 6 Information.The electricity price of transverse axis is designated as the variable of the 1st classification.Moreover, the scale of transverse axis is 11 centrifugal pumps.The IRR of the longitudinal axis It is designated as the variable of the 3rd classification.The scale of the longitudinal axis is seem centrifugal pump at a glance but be not but it is arbitrary between Every scale.Broken line curve 46a, 46b, 46c on coordinate plane ..., 46k correspond respectively to 11 centrifugal pumps of selling price (broken line curve 46a corresponds to maximum selling price).Such as point 47 of Fig. 7 is " 15.5 " corresponding to electricity price, and selling price is The situation (cell 43 of Fig. 6) of " 105,000 ".In the figure 7, all 121 points are shown.These all points are by electricity price Any centrifugal pump in 11 centrifugal pumps has as the coordinate value of transverse axis and any broken line in 11 broken line curves On curve.

The user that visuognosis has been carried out to Fig. 7 can easily understand that herein below.

■ is when other conditions are constant, if electricity price becomes larger, IRR monotone decreasings.

When other conditions are constant, if selling price becomes larger, IRR's ■ is increased monotonically.

No matter what kind of level is ■ selling prices be in, electricity price relative to IRR sensitivity (broken line slope of a curve) all It is roughly the same.

No matter what kind of level is ■ electricity prices be in, selling price is relative to the sensitivity of IRR (between the longitudinal axis of broken line curve Every) all roughly the same.

Although not shown in the figure 7, in the case of it is now assumed that IRR takes maximum when electricity price is " 17.00 ", folding Line curve shows the shape as the convex conic section with vertex on " 17.00 " of transverse axis.As other examples, When in selling price for " in the case that IRR takes maximum when 100,000 ", " 100,000 " corresponding broken line is bent with selling price Line is shown in the position on most.

According to Fig. 8, illustrate the whirlwind figure (table schema) 51 of present embodiment.In whirlwind Figure 51, the variable column of the 1st classification The interrelated display in variable column 112 of 111 and the 3rd classification.The variable column 111 of 1st classification has project as small column Column 111a, minimum value column 111b, maximum column 111c and banner 111d.The variable column 112 of 3rd classification has as small column There are project column 112a, minimum value column 112b, maximum column 112c and difference column 112d.User is shown in project column 111a It is appointed as the variable of the 1st classification.The variable is different for each row.User, which is stored with, in project column 112a is appointed as the 3rd The variable of classification.The variable is identical (being in fig. 8 " IRR ") on all rows.

In addition, understand herein below when paying close attention to the row 113a of Fig. 8.

Sales volume is appointed as the variable of the 1st classification by ■ user.

■ revenues and expenditures construction describes file 31 and is defined as the minimum value of sales volume as " 21,000 ", the maximum of sales volume is " 39,000 " (the definition method of #4).

IRR is appointed as the variable of the 3rd classification by ■ user.

By minimum value, " 21,000 " is updated to sales volume to ■ feasibility analyses device 1, and respective typical value is updated to IRR And the variable beyond sales volume, calculate IRR.As a result, IRR becomes minimum value " -0.49 ".

By maximum, " 39,000 " is updated to sales volume to ■ feasibility analyses device 1, and respective typical value is updated to IRR And the variable beyond sales volume, calculate IRR.As a result, IRR become the maximums " 18.88 ".

■ from the maximum of IRR subtract minimum value obtained from difference be " 19.37 ".

The minimum value of ■ sales volumes corresponds to the minimum value of IRR, and the maximum of sales volume (is marked corresponding to the maximum of IRR " ◇ " of will column 111d represents the correspondence of the size).

Similarly, following content is understood when paying close attention to the row 113b of Fig. 8.

Electricity price is appointed as the variable of the 1st classification by ■ user.

The minimum value that ■ revenues and expenditures construction description file 31 is defined as electricity price is " 15.0 ", and the maximum of electricity price is " 20.0 " (# 4 definition method).

IRR is appointed as the variable of the 3rd classification by ■ user.

Minimum value " 15.0 " is updated to electricity price by ■ feasibility analyses device 1, by respective typical value be updated to IRR and Variable beyond electricity price, calculates IRR.As a result, IRR become the maximums " 11.37 ".

Maximum " 20.0 " is updated to electricity price by ■ feasibility analyses device 1, by respective typical value be updated to IRR and Variable beyond electricity price, calculates IRR.As a result, IRR becomes minimum value " 8.11 ".

The difference that ■ subtracts minimum value from the maximum of IRR is " 3.26 ".

The minimum value of ■ electricity prices corresponds to the maximum of IRR, and the maximum of electricity price corresponds to the minimum value (banner of IRR " ◆ " of 111d represents the correspondence of the size).

According to Fig. 9, illustrate the whirlwind figure (chart-pattern) 55 of present embodiment.The transverse axis of whirlwind Figure 55 is to be designated as the 3rd The IRR of classification.The longitudinal axis of whirlwind Figure 55 does not simultaneously correspond to any variable.But the difference (column 112d) according to Fig. 8 from greatly to In the case that small order arrangement is designated as the variable of the 1st classification, difference is bigger, which is shown in getting over for the longitudinal axis with figure Top position.That is, it appears that shape as whirlwind (cyclone).

In addition, when paying close attention to band Figure 56 a of Fig. 9, it is known that following content.

■ sales volumes influence (difference) maximum caused by IRR.

■ be minimized in sales volume " when 21,000 ", IRR is minimized " -0.49 ", be maximized in sales volume " 39, When 000 ", IRR is maximized " 18.88 " (be additional to " ◇ " with figure and represent the situation).

Similarly, when paying close attention to band Figure 56 b of Fig. 9, it is known that herein below.

It is big that ■ electricity prices influence (difference) the 3rd caused by IRR.

For ■ when electricity price is minimized " 15.00 ", IRR is maximized " 11.37 ", when electricity price is maximized " 20.00 ", IRR is minimized " 8.11 " (be additional to " ◆ " with figure and represent the situation).

In fig. 8, illustrate that feasibility analysis device 1 is specified the example of definition of the #4 as the variable of the 1st classification by user Son.However, in the case where user specifies #5, feasibility analysis device 1 for the variable of the 1st classification each centrifugal pump and Calculate the value of the variable of the 3rd classification.Then, it is known that whether the variable of the 3rd classification has pole between its maxima and minima Big value and/or minimum.In the case of there are maximum and/or minimum, feasibility analysis device 1 can also The band figure (Fig. 9) of variable to representing the 1st classification adds "○" and/or "●" respectively.Understood alternatively, it is also possible to be shown as IRR is maximum or is minimum under which value.

(target homing in present embodiment)

Now, it is set to user and considers herein below.

Most important variable in ■ variables is IRR, for example, by providers of funds be set to reach specific desired value (such as " 10.0% ").Thus, IRR is appointed as to the variable of the 1st classification.For ease of understanding, here, appointed variable is known as " target variable ".

Electricity price and piece price in the other variables of ■ are also important variable.But in the short term, user is difficult to make These values change on one's own initiative, these values might as well be close to the value (restriction condition) given.Thus, electricity price and piece price are also another The variable of the 1st classification is appointed as outside, but is dividually considered with IRR.Appointed variable is known as " restriction variable " herein.

■ how to control the selling price in variable reach IRR for " 10.0% " be short-term operation problem.Thus, will Selling price is appointed as the variable of the 3rd classification.Here, appointed variable is known as " be retrieved variable ".

The other variables of ■ are not temporarily important (not being analysis objects).Thus, other variables can also be considered as the 2nd class Other variable.The variable is known as " fixed variable ".

According to Figure 10, illustrate the target homing figure (figure and table schema) 61 of present embodiment.Pay close attention to input field 62.On The variable column 63a of the row 64a of target variable specifies IRR.Specified in the variable column 63a of the row 64b on the variable that is retrieved Selling price.Electricity price is specified in the variable column 63a of the row 64c on restricting variable 1.The row 64d's on restricting variable 2 Variable column 63a specifies piece price.

The definition method column 63b of 64a of being expert at specifies " #1 ", is specified " 10.0% " in the value column 63c of variable.This is represented User have input " 10.0% " as the desired value of IRR.Alternatively, represent that specifying revenue and expenditure construction by user describes file 31 It is in the row of (Fig. 4), " IRR " is stored with item columns 102, "=" is stored with operator columns 103, on value1 columns 104 It is stored with the row of " 10.0% ".

The definition method column 63b of the row 64b and value column 63c of variable is empty column.This represents that user is used as by feasibility point Analysis apparatus 1 carry out result of calculation and wait the output of the value of " selling price ".The definition method column 63b of 64c of being expert at is shown " #5 ", shows " (10) from 15.0 to 20.0 " in the value column 63c of variable.This represents that specifying revenue and expenditure construction by user describes text It is in the row of part 31, " electricity price " be stored with item columns 102, be stored with operator columns 103 " Division 10 ", Value1 columns 104 are stored with " 15.0 ", are stored with the row of " 20.0 " on value2 columns 105.

The definition method column 63b of 64d of being expert at shows " #5 ", is shown in the value column 63c of variable " from 25.0 to 26.0 (10)”.This represent by user specify revenue and expenditure construction describe it is in the row of file 31, on item columns 102 be stored with " component valency Lattice ", be stored with operator columns 103 that " Division 10 ", be stored with value1 columns 104 " 25.0 ", on value2 columns 105 are stored with the row of " 26.0 ".

When user presses " target homing " button 65 (Figure 10) in such a state, feasibility analysis device 1 is to making Following processing is performed for the revenue and expenditure construction description file 31 of mathematical model.

(1) " 10.0% " is updated to IRR.

(2) for the variable in addition to IRR, electricity price and piece price, substituting into typical value, (revenue and expenditure construction describes file It is in 31 row, be stored with the variable on item columns 102, be stored with operator columns 103 "=" row value1 columns 104 The value stored).

(3) generate electricity price 11 centrifugal pumps (15.0,15.5 ..., 20.0).

(4) 11 centrifugal pumps (25.0,25.1 ..., 26.0) of generating unit price.

(5) 1 in the combination (there are 11 × 11=121) of the variable of two generated species is obtained, will be got The value of electricity price that is included of combination be updated to variable " electricity price ", the value for the piece price that the combination got is included substitutes into To variable " piece price ".

(6) correlation for being described in revenue and expenditure construction and describing file 31 is obtained into sale price solving as simultaneous equations The value of lattice.

(7) all combinations on the variable of two species of generation repeat described in (5) and (6) processing.

The Output bar 66 of Figure 10 shows that feasibility analysis device 1 performs the result of the processing of (1)~(7).Output bar 66 The combination column 67b of value with variable column 67a and variable, the combination column 67b of the value of variable include 11 row.It is expert at 68a's All row are shown " 10.0% ".The each of 68c of being expert at arranges the centrifugal pump for showing electricity price.Similarly, respectively arranging for 68d of being expert at is aobvious It is shown with the centrifugal pump of piece price.The value for being shown in the selling price of row 68b is the result of calculation of feasibility analysis device 1.

When paying close attention to row 69, based on electricity price be " 15.0 " and piece price is restriction condition as " 25.0 ", it is known that is The value of IRR is set to become " 10.0% ", it is necessary to selling price is become " 96,199 ".In addition, original, the combination column of the value of variable 67b should show total 121 row.In Fig. 10, to put it more simply, showing 11 row therein.

In " figure " 70, it is transverse axis to take electricity price, and it is the longitudinal axis to take selling price.Moreover, broken line curve 71 is directed to each component Price and show 11.That is, " figure " 70 two-dimensionally shows the value (three of row 68b, 68c and 68d of Output bar 66 The combination of dimension).

According to Figure 11, illustrate the target homing figure (figure and table schema) 75 of present embodiment.In fig. 11, it is different from Figure 10 Point it is as follows.

The row 64d of ■ input fields 62 is empty column.That is, " piece price " is not appointed as target variable, quilt by user Retrieve any one variable in variable and restriction variable.Thus, feasibility analysis device 1 by " piece price " with it is other The substantial amounts of identical mode of variable is considered as fixed variable, substitutes into typical value.

■ is not the result is that Output bar 66 has the row suitable with the row 68d of Figure 10.

The quantity that these results of ■ are displayed at the broken line curve on figure column 70 is only 1.This 1 corresponds to piece price Predetermined typical value.

According to Figure 12, illustrate the target homing figure (table schema) 81 of present embodiment.In fig. 12, in the row of input field 62 The variable column 63a of 64b is shown " whole ", and row 64c and 64d are empty column.That is, user is complete by the variable beyond IRR Portion is appointed as the variable that is retrieved.At this time, feasibility analysis device 1 obtains each typical value (receipts that should be updated to the variable that is respectively retrieved Branch construction describe it is in the row of file 31, on item columns 102 be stored with the variable, be stored with "=" on operator columns 103 The value that capable value1 columns 104 are stored).Then, make approximate with each typical value got to the journey for meeting predetermined benchmark The value (such as value within typical value ± 10.0% etc.) of degree randomly produces predetermined quantity, for it is each be retrieved variable come The group of making value.

Next, the one by one acquired value among the group produced of feasibility analysis device 1, the group for the variable that is set to be retrieved Close.And then feasibility analysis device 1 by by the value of combination be updated to revenue and expenditure construction describe file 31 the variable that is retrieved, from And the value of IRR is calculated, combination is arranged (Output bar 82) according to the order close to " 10.0% ".In addition, in the defeated of Figure 12 The row 83 for delivering 82 for sale is arranged with " 10.0% ", even if assume be not " 10.0% " value, also rounded up and with this The mode of sample is shown.

According to Figure 13, illustrate disposed of in its entirety order.As the premise for starting disposed of in its entirety order, revenue and expenditure construction describes file 31 (Fig. 4) are stored in auxilary unit 15 under completion status.

In step s 201, the specified receiving unit 21 of feasibility analysis device 1 reads in revenue and expenditure construction and describes file 31.Specifically For, specify receiving unit 21 to read revenue and expenditure construction from auxilary unit 15 and describe file 31, be loaded into main storage means 14.

In step S202, the specified receiving unit 21 of feasibility analysis device 1 accepts the species of chart.Specifically, refer to Determine receiving unit 21 and accept user to input " spider diagram " via input unit 12, appointing in " whirlwind figure " and " target homing figure " It is intended to table.

Whether in step S203, it is spider diagram to specify the chart that receiving unit 21 judges to accept.Specifically, specify by Reason portion 21 is in the situation (step S203 "Yes") of " spider diagram " when the species of the chart accepted in step S202, is entered Step S204, in situation (step S203 "No") in addition, enters step S213.

In step S204, the specified receiving unit 21 of feasibility analysis device 1 accepts causal variable and outcome variable Specify.Specifically, specifying receiving unit 21 to accept, user specifies multiple causal variables via input unit 12 and designated result becomes Measure this situation.Causal variable refer to revenue and expenditure construction describe file 31 variable (project) in, can be in some scope value Variable, equivalent to the variable of the 1st classification.Outcome variable refer to revenue and expenditure construction describe file 31 variable (project) in, by Change in the value of causal variable so as to the changed variable of value of itself, equivalent to the variable of the 3rd classification.

At this time, receiving unit 21 is specified output dress to be shown in by the way that revenue and expenditure is constructed description file 31 (Fig. 4, Fig. 5) 13 are put, user is accepted and selects arbitrary row, so as to accept specifying for causal variable and outcome variable.Now, being set to user will " electricity price " and " selling price " is appointed as causal variable, and " IRR " is appointed as outcome variable, continues the following description.Also It is to say, user wants investigation as the value of electricity price and the value of selling price change, and the change of which kind of degree occurs for IRR (sensitivity analysis).

In step S205, receiving unit 21 is specified to accept the scope of causal variable.Specifically, the 1st, specify receiving unit 21 Row in the row for describing file 31, being stored with " electricity price " on item columns 102 is constructed to revenue and expenditure to be highlighted.Here, by Row 142a~142e of the row being highlighted for example including Fig. 5.

2nd, specify receiving unit 21 to accept user and specify certain row in the row being highlighted.Now, user is set to specify The row 142e of Fig. 5.It is more as the situation of the value of electricity price that user is desirable for multiple centrifugal pumps.Thus, specify receiving unit 21 It is aobvious acquiescence can also to be carried out to row 142e (being stored with " Division " on operator columns 103) in the form of being distinguished with other rows Show.

3rd, specify receiving unit 21 to generate the centrifugal pump of the variable of appointed row in " the 2nd " of step S205.Institute State in example, specify receiving unit 21 to generate the centrifugal pump " 15.0,15.5,16.0 ..., 20.0 " of 11 electricity prices.

4th, specify receiving unit 21 also to perform the processing of " the 1st "~" the 3rd " of step S205 on " selling price ".

In step S206, receiving unit 21 is specified to determine fixed variable.Specifically, specify receiving unit 21 will be except being referred to All variables for being set to " electricity price " and " selling price " of causal variable and being designated as beyond " IRR " of outcome variable regard For fixed variable.

In step S207, receiving unit 21 is specified to obtain the value of fixed variable.Specifically, specify receiving unit 21 to obtain to receive Branch construction describe it is in the row of file 31, on item columns 102 be for example stored with " personal services ", be stored with operator columns 103 The value on the value1 columns 104 of the row of "=", the typical value as " personal services ".Similarly, specified receiving unit 21 also obtains other The typical value of fixed variable.

In step S208, the value of 22 result of calculation variable of operational part.Specifically, the 1st, operational part 22 will be in step The typical value got in S207 is updated to the fixed variable that revenue and expenditure construction describes file 31.

2nd, the 11 centrifugal pumps acquisition 1 of " electricity price " of generation from " the 3rd " of step S205 of operational part 22 is discrete Value, 1 centrifugal pump is obtained from 11 centrifugal pumps of " selling price ", so as to make total 121 combinations.

3rd, the value for the combination produced in " the 2nd " of step S208 is updated to revenue and expenditure construction and describes text by operational part 22 " electricity price " and " selling price " of part 31.

4th, the revenue and expenditure construction that operational part 22 is used as mathematical model by solving describes the correlation that file 31 is described, So as to calculate " IRR ".

In addition, operational part 22 is on all combination repeat step S208's for being produced in " the 2nd " of step S208 " the 3rd " and the processing of " the 4th ".In the stage that the reprocessing terminates, operational part 22 is by " (electricity price, selling price, IRR) " The combination of value is kept for 121 as broken line curve data.

In step S209, display control unit 23 shows spider diagram.Specifically, the 1st, display control unit 23 is exporting The coordinate plane of cobweb Figure 45 (Fig. 7) is shown in device 13.The transverse axis of coordinate plane is " electricity price "." electricity price " is in step 1 in S204 in appointed causal variable.The longitudinal axis of coordinate plane is " IRR "." IRR " is to be designated in step S204 Outcome variable.

2nd, display control unit 23 is directed to each " selling price " in coordinate plane and shows according to broken line curve data 11 broken line curves." selling price " is remaining 1 in the appointed causal variable in step S204.Afterwards, show Control unit 23 enters step S230.

Whether in step S213, it is whirlwind figure to specify the chart that receiving unit 21 judges to accept.Specifically, specify and accept Portion 21 is in the situation (step S213 "Yes") of " whirlwind figure " when the species of the chart accepted in step S202, enters step S214, in situation (step S213 "No") in addition, enters step S223.

In step S214, receiving unit 21 is specified to accept specifying for causal variable and outcome variable.Specifically, specify Receiving unit 21 accepts user and specifies causal variable and designated result variable via input unit 12.At this time, receiving unit 21 is specified Output device 13 can be shown in by the way that revenue and expenditure is constructed description file 31 (Fig. 4, Fig. 5), accept user and select arbitrary row, from And accept specifying for causal variable and outcome variable.Now, it is set to user and " sales volume " is appointed as causal variable, will " IRR " is appointed as outcome variable, continues the following description.Become that is, user wants investigation with the value of sales volume Change and the change (sensitivity analysis) of which kind of degree occurs for IRR.At this time, appointed causal variable is known as " analysis object original Dependent variable ".Detailed content will be described later, and specify receiving unit 21 various to " analysis object causal variable " progress After change, sensitivity analysis is carried out.

In step S215, receiving unit 21 is specified to accept the scope of causal variable.Specifically, the 1st, specify receiving unit 21 Row in the row for describing file 31, being stored with " sales volume " on item columns 102 is constructed to revenue and expenditure to be highlighted.Here, The row being highlighted is for example including the row on " sales volume " suitable with row 142a~142e of Fig. 5.

2nd, specify receiving unit 21 to accept user and specify certain row in the row being highlighted.Now, user is set to specify Row on " sales volume " suitable with the row 142e of Fig. 5.User is desirable for multiple centrifugal pumps as the value of sales volume Situation is more.Thus, specify receiving unit 21 can also be in the form of being distinguished with other rows pair " sales volume " suitable with row 142e Row (being stored with " Division " on operator columns 103) carry out acquiescence and show.

3rd, specify receiving unit 21 to generate the centrifugal pump of the variable of appointed row in " the 2nd " of step S215.Institute State in example, specify receiving unit 21 for example generate 11 sales volumes centrifugal pump " 21,000 ..., 39,000 ".

In step S216, receiving unit 21 is specified to determine fixed variable.Specifically, specify receiving unit 21 will be except being referred to All variables for being set to " sales volume " of causal variable and being designated as beyond " IRR " of outcome variable are considered as fixed change Amount.

In step S217, receiving unit 21 is specified to obtain the value of fixed variable.Specifically, specify receiving unit 21 to obtain to receive Branch construction describe it is in the row of file 31, on item columns 102 be for example stored with " personal services ", be stored with operator columns 103 The value on the value1 columns 104 of the row of "=", the typical value as " personal services ".Similarly, specified receiving unit 21 also obtains other The typical value of fixed variable.

In step S218, the value of 22 result of calculation variable of operational part.Specifically, the 1st, operational part 22 will be in step The typical value got in S217 is updated to the fixed variable that revenue and expenditure construction describes file 31.

2nd, operational part 22 from 11 centrifugal pumps of in " the 3rd " of step S215 " sales volume " of generation obtain 1 from Dissipate value.

3rd, the value got in " the 2nd " of step S218 is updated to revenue and expenditure construction and describes file 31 by operational part 22 " sales volume ".

4th, operational part 22 is used as the correlation described in the revenue and expenditure construction description file 31 of mathematical model by solving, So as to calculate " IRR ".

In addition, the repetition on 11 centrifugal pumps of " sales volume " of generation in " the 3rd " of step S215 of operational part 22 The processing (inner side circulation) of " the 2nd "~" the 4th " of step S218.Then, the stage terminated in the reprocessing of inner side circulation, fortune Calculation portion 22 keeps the value of 11 IRR.Operational part 22 keep from maximum therein subtract minimum value obtained from result as poor Value.

In addition, specify receiving unit 21 and operational part 22 will " analysis object causal variable " change into " sales volume " and After variable beyond " IRR ", before untreated " analysis object causal variable " disappears, repeat step S215~S218's Handle (outside circulation).Then, the stage that the reprocessing circulated on the outside terminates, operational part 22 are kept and analysis object reason The combination of the value of the quantity of variable corresponding " (causal variable, difference) ".Now, here, the combination of holding is known as " establishing secondary Difference information before sequence ".As establishing the example of difference information before order, such as consider example below.

(causal variable, difference)=(selling price, 3.53), (power consumption, 1.14), (repayment year, 0.08), (sale Amount, 19.37), (piece price, 0.42), (electricity price, 3.26)

In step S219, display control unit 23 shows whirlwind figure.Specifically, the 1st, display control unit 23 is according to difference What order rearrangement from big to small was kept establishes difference information before order, is used as " establish order after difference information ".Certainly, show Show the difference information before establishing order that control unit 23 can also be kept according to the order rearrangement of difference from small to large.As foundation The example of difference information after order, such as consider following example.

[causal variable, difference]=[sales volume, 19.37], [selling price, 3.53], [electricity price, 3.26], [power consumption, 1.14], [piece price, 0.42], [repayment year, 0.08]

2nd, whirlwind Figure 55 (Fig. 9) is shown in output device 13 by display control unit 23.The transverse axis of coordinate plane is “IRR”." IRR " is the appointed outcome variable in step S214.

3rd, display control unit 23 is according to the order of the difference of difference information after order from big to small is established, from whirlwind Figure 55 Top start display represent the causal variable band figure.It is of course also possible to according to the order of difference from small to large from top Shown.Respectively the coordinate value of the transverse axis of the left end with figure takes various centrifugal pumps and situation about changing for the causal variable Under IRR minimum value.Respectively the coordinate value of the transverse axis of the right end with figure takes various centrifugal pumps and becomes for the causal variable The maximum of IRR in the case of change.Afterwards, display control unit 23 enters step S230.

In step S223, specify receiving unit 21 accept target variable, be retrieved variable and restrict variable specify.Tool For body, specifying receiving unit 21 to accept, user specifies target variable via input unit 12, be retrieved variable and restriction variable. Target variable refers to that revenue and expenditure construction describes variable in the variable (project) of file 31, to specify desired value, equivalent to the 1st class Other variable.The variable that is retrieved refers to that revenue and expenditure construction describes in the variable (project) of file 31, calculating and is used to make target variable The variable of the value of desired value is taken, equivalent to the variable of the 3rd classification.It is the variable referred in some scope value to restrict variable, Equivalent to the variable of the 1st classification.

At this time, receiving unit 21 is specified output dress to be shown in by the way that revenue and expenditure is constructed description file 31 (Fig. 4, Fig. 5) 13 are put, user is accepted and selects arbitrary row, so as to accept target variable, being retrieved variable and restricts specifying for variable.Now, It is set to user and " IRR " is appointed as target variable, " selling price " is appointed as the variable that is retrieved, by " electricity price " and " component Price " is appointed as restricting variable and continuing the following description.That is, user wants value and component valency of the investigation in electricity price The value of lattice is in the case of restriction condition as some range, the desired value given to draw target variable, is detected What kind of value Suo Bianliang must take.

In step S224, receiving unit 21 is specified to accept desired value.Specifically, specify receiving unit 21 accept user via Input unit 12 specifies the desired value (such as " 10.0% ") of IRR.

In step S225, receiving unit 21 is specified to accept restriction range of variables.Specifically, the 1st, specify receiving unit 21 Row in the row for describing file 31, being stored with " electricity price " on item columns 102 is constructed to revenue and expenditure to be highlighted.Here, by Row 142a~142e of the row being highlighted for example including Fig. 5.

3rd, specify receiving unit 21 to generate the centrifugal pump of the variable of appointed row in " the 2nd " of step S225.Institute State in example, specify receiving unit 21 generate 11 electricity prices centrifugal pump " 15.0,15.5,16.0 ..., 20.0 ".

4th, specify receiving unit 21 also to perform the processing of " the 1st "~" the 3rd " of step S225 on " piece price ".

In step S226, receiving unit 21 is specified to determine fixed variable.Specifically, specify receiving unit 21 will be except being referred to It is set to " IRR " of target variable, is designated as restricting " electricity price " and " piece price " of variable and is designated as the change that is retrieved All variables beyond " selling price " of amount are considered as fixed variable.

In step S227, receiving unit 21 is specified to obtain the value of fixed variable.Specifically, specify receiving unit 21 to obtain to receive Branch construction describe it is in the row of file 31, on item columns 102 be for example stored with " personal services ", be stored with operator columns 103 Typical value of the value on the value1 columns 104 of the row of "=" as " personal services ".Similarly, specified receiving unit 21 also obtains other solid Determine the typical value of variable.

In step S228, operational part 22 calculates the value for the variable that is retrieved.Specifically, the 1st, operational part 22 will be in step The typical value got in S227 is updated to the fixed variable that revenue and expenditure construction describes file 31.

2nd, the 11 centrifugal pumps acquisition 1 of " electricity price " of generation from " the 3rd " of step S225 of operational part 22 is discrete Value, 1 centrifugal pump is obtained from 11 centrifugal pumps of " piece price ", so as to make total 121 combinations.

3rd, the value for the combination produced in " the 2nd " of step S228 is updated to revenue and expenditure construction and describes text by operational part 22 " electricity price " and " piece price " of part 31.

In addition, operational part 22 is on all combinations for being produced in " the 2nd " of step S228 and repeat step S228 " the 3rd " and " the 4th " processing.In the stage that the reprocessing terminates, operational part 22 will " (electricity price, piece price, sale Price) " value combination as broken line curve with data keep 121.

In step S229,23 display target search figure of display control unit.Specifically, display control unit 23 searches target Seek Figure 61 (Figure 10) and be shown in output device 13.The detailed content of target homing Figure 61 is as described.

In addition, display control unit 23 be designated as restrict variable variable be only 1 in the case of, display target search Figure 75 (Figure 11), in the case where all variables beyond by target variable are appointed as being retrieved variable, display target search Figure 81 (Figure 12).

Afterwards, display control unit 23 enters step S230.

In step S230, receiving unit 21 is specified to judge whether that end is handled.Specifically, receiving unit 21 is specified to accept User is inputted via input unit 12 in the situation (step S230 "No") of the instruction of the meaning continued with, back to step S202.In the situation (step S230 "Yes") of the instruction for the meaning for having accepted the processing of user's end of input, terminate disposed of in its entirety time Sequence.

(effect of embodiment)

The task analyzer of present embodiment plays following effect.

(1) task analyzer can utilize revenue and expenditure construction to describe file and show cobweb with spending time without using family Figure, whirlwind figure and target homing figure.

(2) range of variables and typical value can be stored in revenue and expenditure construction and describe file by task analyzer.Thus, User will not the worried selection in the value for being concerned about few variable.

(3) task analyzer can generate the centrifugal pump of variable.Thus, user being capable of easily visuognosis variable Minimum or maximum.

In addition, the present invention is not limited to the embodiment, various modifications example is included.For example, the embodiment be in order to It is easy-to-understand to illustrate the present invention and is illustrated in detail, it is not essential however to possesses all structures of explanation.In addition, A part for the structure of some embodiment can be replaced into the structure of other embodiments, in addition it is possible to some embodiment Structure add other embodiments structure.In addition, a part for the structure on each embodiment, can carry out other structures Additional, deletion and displacement.

In addition, each structure, function, processing unit, processing unit etc. can also be for example by according to IC design Deng utilizing they some or all of hardware realization.In addition, each structure, function etc. can also be by by processor solutions Release and perform the program for realizing respective function and realized by software.Realize that the information such as the program of each function, form, file can be put It is placed in tape deck or IC card, SD card, the DVD such as memory, hard disk, SSD (Solid State Drive, hard disk drive) Etc. recording medium.

In addition, on control line, information wire, show in explanation to be considered as necessary control line, information wire, producing All control lines, information wire may not be shown on product.It can also be considered actually almost all of structure to be connected with each other.

Claims

1. a kind of feasibility analysis device, it is characterised in that possess：

Storage part, storage revenue and expenditure construction describe file, and the revenue and expenditure construction describes file and describes the multiple variables related with business Quantitative correlation；And

Control unit,

The multiple variable that the revenue and expenditure construction of the storage part is described in file includes：

Multiple causal variables, can be in some scope value；

Outcome variable, since the value of the causal variable changes and the value of outcome variable itself changes；And

Fixed variable in addition to the causal variable and the outcome variable,

The control unit includes：

Receiving unit is specified, accepts specifying for the outcome variable and multiple causal variables, and will be except appointed Variable beyond the outcome variable and the appointed causal variable is considered as the fixed variable；

Operational part, the appointed causal variable is updated to by the value in the range of some, and typical value is updated to The fixed variable, solves and is described in the correlation that the revenue and expenditure construction describes file, so as to calculate appointed institute State the value of outcome variable；And

Display control unit, the 1st axis is being set to, by 1 in the appointed causal variable by the appointed outcome variable A causal variable is set in the plane of the 2nd axis, is become for remaining each reason in the appointed causal variable Amount, display represent the figure of the described value calculated of the appointed outcome variable.

2. a kind of feasibility analysis device, it is characterised in that possess：

Control unit,

Multiple causal variables, can be in some scope value；

Fixed variable in addition to the causal variable and the outcome variable,

The control unit includes：

Operational part, the appointed causal variable is updated to by the value in the range of some, and typical value is updated to The fixed variable, solves and is described in the correlation that the revenue and expenditure construction describes file, so that on appointed institute The each causal variable for stating causal variable calculates the value of the appointed outcome variable；And

Display control unit, the magnitude relationship for the scope that can be taken according to the described value calculated of the appointed outcome variable, Determine the order of the appointed causal variable, and according to the order of decision, will represent the appointed result The figure for the scope that the described value calculated of variable can take is arranged for appointed each causal variable to show Show.

3. the feasibility analysis device according to claims 1 or 2, it is characterised in that

Revenue and expenditure construction describe file be stored with multiple variables be respectively designated it is described in the case of the causal variable Some scope, is stored with the typical value in the case that multiple variables are considered separately as the fixed variable,

The specified receiving unit accepts from revenue and expenditure construction description file and is stored in described in the revenue and expenditure construction description file Some scope and the typical value.

4. feasibility analysis device according to claim 3, it is characterised in that

Some described scope is provided according to minimum value, maximum and segmentation number,

The specified receiving unit by according to the segmentation number come split the appointed causal variable from the minimum value Value untill the maximum, so that multiple centrifugal pumps of the appointed causal variable are generated,

The centrifugal pump of generation is updated to the appointed causal variable by the operational part.

5. a kind of feasibility analysis device, it is characterised in that possess：

Control unit,

Target variable, is designated desired value；

Be retrieved variable, calculates the value for being used for making the target variable take the desired value；

Variable is restricted, can be in some scope value；And

Except the target variable, it is described be retrieved variable and it is described restrict variable in addition to fixed variable,

The control unit includes：

Specify receiving unit, accept the target variable, it is described be retrieved variable and it is described restrict specifying for variable, and will remove The appointed target variable, appointed be retrieved variable and the appointed change restricted beyond variable Amount is considered as the fixed variable；And

Operational part, the appointed target variable is updated to by the desired value, and the value in the range of some is updated to The appointed restriction variable, is updated to the fixed variable, solution is described in the revenue and expenditure construction and describes text by typical value The correlation of part, so as to calculate the value of the appointed variable that is retrieved.

6. feasibility analysis device according to claim 5, it is characterised in that

Revenue and expenditure construction describe file be stored with multiple variables be respectively designated it is described in the case of the restriction variable Some scope, is stored with the typical value in the case that multiple variables are considered separately as the fixed variable,

7. feasibility analysis device according to claim 6, it is characterised in that

The specified receiving unit by split according to the segmentation number it is appointed it is described restrict variable from the minimum value Value untill the maximum, the appointed multiple centrifugal pumps for restricting variable of generation,

The centrifugal pump of generation is updated to the appointed restriction variable by the operational part.