CN107809112A - A kind of detailed distribution method of extra-high voltage GIL equipment dependabilities - Google Patents

A kind of detailed distribution method of extra-high voltage GIL equipment dependabilities Download PDF

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CN107809112A
CN107809112A CN201710895322.0A CN201710895322A CN107809112A CN 107809112 A CN107809112 A CN 107809112A CN 201710895322 A CN201710895322 A CN 201710895322A CN 107809112 A CN107809112 A CN 107809112A
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reliability
mrow
msub
subsystem
distribution
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杨军
伏晓露
陈允
崔博源
张鹏飞
刘丹
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Jiangsu Electric Power Co Ltd Research Institute Of Electric Power Academy
Beihang University
China Electric Power Research Institute Co Ltd CEPRI
Electric Power Research Institute of State Grid Jiangsu Electric Power Co Ltd
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Jiangsu Electric Power Co Ltd Research Institute Of Electric Power Academy
Beihang University
China Electric Power Research Institute Co Ltd CEPRI
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    • H—ELECTRICITY
    • H02—GENERATION; CONVERSION OR DISTRIBUTION OF ELECTRIC POWER
    • H02J—CIRCUIT ARRANGEMENTS OR SYSTEMS FOR SUPPLYING OR DISTRIBUTING ELECTRIC POWER; SYSTEMS FOR STORING ELECTRIC ENERGY
    • H02J3/00—Circuit arrangements for ac mains or ac distribution networks
    • G—PHYSICS
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    • G06Q—INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY [ICT] SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES; SYSTEMS OR METHODS SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES, NOT OTHERWISE PROVIDED FOR
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    • G06Q10/0639—Performance analysis of employees; Performance analysis of enterprise or organisation operations
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    • G06Q—INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY [ICT] SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES; SYSTEMS OR METHODS SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES, NOT OTHERWISE PROVIDED FOR
    • G06Q50/00—Information and communication technology [ICT] specially adapted for implementation of business processes of specific business sectors, e.g. utilities or tourism
    • G06Q50/06—Energy or water supply
    • H—ELECTRICITY
    • H02—GENERATION; CONVERSION OR DISTRIBUTION OF ELECTRIC POWER
    • H02J—CIRCUIT ARRANGEMENTS OR SYSTEMS FOR SUPPLYING OR DISTRIBUTING ELECTRIC POWER; SYSTEMS FOR STORING ELECTRIC ENERGY
    • H02J2203/00—Indexing scheme relating to details of circuit arrangements for AC mains or AC distribution networks
    • H02J2203/20—Simulating, e g planning, reliability check, modelling or computer assisted design [CAD]

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Abstract

A kind of detailed distribution method of extra-high voltage GIL equipment dependabilities of present invention offer, i.e., a kind of detailed distribution method of extra-high voltage GIL equipment dependabilities based on Bootstrap, step are as follows：One：Initial Reliability Distribution；Two：Reliability prediction；Three：Judge whether reliability prediction value reaches reliability requirement；Four：Calculate the Reliability Distribution value confidential interval based on Bootstrap；Five：Reliability using each subsystem confidential interval as constraint is distributed in detail；By above step, make reliability reallocation more scientific and reasonable, solve the problems, such as that convectional reliability reallocation can not consider Practical Project accessibility.

Description

A kind of detailed distribution method of extra-high voltage GIL equipment dependabilities
Technical field
The present invention provides a kind of detailed distribution method of extra-high voltage GIL equipment dependabilities, and it is extra-high voltage gas-insulated metal Closed power transmission line (Gas-insulated Metal-enclosed Transmission Line, GIL) equipment dependability is detailed Method of completing the square is segmented, it is related to a kind of extra-high voltage GIL equipment for being based on bootstrap resampling technique (hereinafter referred to as " Bootstrap ") The detailed distribution method of reliability, can effectively solve product predicted value can not meet that reliability reallocation during reliability index is asked Topic.Convectional reliability redistribution procedure is efficiently modified, by assigning the confidential interval of each subsystem Reliability Distribution value, i.e., Subsystem Reliability Distribution value can domain of walker, make reliability reallocation more reasonable, and have something to base on.This patent is applicable In product reliability redistribution problem.
Background technology
Extra-high voltage GIL be it is a kind of using metal conducting bar transmit electricity and be closed in the metal shell of ground connection, using pressure A kind of gas isolated transmission line of electricity of power, the reliability of extra-high voltage GIL equipment be directly connected to whole power network operation conditions and Run maintenance cost.In order to improve the quality of GIL equipment, reduce GIL operation maintenance costs, should just be opened in Design Stage Reliability Distribution work is opened up, the reliability index of quantization is scientifically assigned on all parts of GIL.
Reliability Distribution is to propose user, in overall reliability specified in product development charter (or contract) Index, from top to bottom, by overall to being locally assigned to defined product level (subsystem, equipment, component etc.) step by step, and with This is as the quantitative basis for carrying out reliability design.Reliability Distribution is a process for iterating and adjusting, it is necessary to can On the basis of being expected by property, rational reliability reallocation is carried out.
Currently, initial reliability allocation methods mainly have equal distribution method, scoring distribution method, ratio combined method, consideration important The distribution method of degree and complexity, ratio combined method Reliability Distribution of redundant system etc.；Reliability reassignment method is mainly Distribution method based on minimum work quantity algorithm.Minimum work quantity algorithm basic thought be：When reliability prediction value is unsatisfactory for During reliability index requirements, the relatively low subsystem one higher Reliability Distribution value of unified reallocation of estimated reliability, and For the higher subsystem of estimated reliability, its Reliability Distribution value keeps constant.
Because the condition residing for each subsystem and stage are different, the technical difficulty of reliability improvement is different, it is necessary to spend Cost is also different, and the mode of convectional reliability redistribution procedure clean cut can not usually allow all subsystems while to reach its unified The reliability reallocation value of raising, or in order to reach its apportioning cost, it is necessary to which the cost spent is too high.There is an urgent need to clearly each point to be The receptible Reliability Distribution section of system institute so that reliability reallocation is smoothed out in the reasonable scope, ensures reliability again Distribution is smoothly carried out.
Therefore, the present invention proposes a kind of detailed distribution method of extra-high voltage GIL equipment dependabilities.
The content of the invention
(1) purpose of the present invention：
The present invention is directed to the product reliability redistribution problem that initial Reliability Distribution is carried out using scoring distribution method, proposes A kind of detailed distribution method of extra-high voltage GIL equipment dependabilities, makes full use of expert analysis mode information, provides each subsystem reliability The confidential interval of reallocation value, as the reasonable mobility scale of each system reliability reallocation, have to reliability reallocation Effect, realistic constraint conditions, Reliability Distribution is carried out according to product own situation for project planner scientific basis is provided, had important Theory significance and reality application demand.
(2) technical scheme：
Based on above-mentioned theory and thinking, The present invention gives a kind of detailed distribution method of extra-high voltage GIL equipment dependabilities, i.e., A kind of detailed distribution method of extra-high voltage GIL equipment dependabilities based on Bootstrap, specific implementation step are as follows：
Step 1：Initial Reliability Distribution
Initial Reliability Distribution is using scoring distribution method；First, N number of expert is invited to designed reliability scoring point Given a mark with table, and collect scoring information；Secondly, the scoring of each factor of each subsystem is averaged respectively, obtains one Reliability grade form after average；Finally, initial reliability point is carried out to each subsystem according to the calculation procedure of scoring distribution method Match somebody with somebody, obtain the initial Reliability Distribution value of each subsystem；
Its specific practice is as follows：
1) expert analysis mode information is collected
Assuming that equipment has M subsystem, L factor is chosen as reliability score basis, k-th of expert is to i-th for note J-th of factor scores value of subsystem is rk,i,j(k=1,2 ..., N；I=1,2 ..., M；J=1,2 ..., L), then received It is as shown in table 1 to collect expert analysis mode information；
The reliability grade form of k-th of the expert of table 1
Factor 1 Factor 2 …… Factor L
Subsystem 1 rk,1,1 rk,1,2 …… rk,1,L
Subsystem 2 rk,2,1 rk,2,2 …… rk,2,L
…… …… …… …… ……
Subsystem M rk,M,1 rk,M,2 …… rk,M,L
2) expert estimation is averaged
Each expert is taken into average on the scoring of j-th of factor of i-th of subsystem, after obtaining one averagely Reliability expert analysis mode table, as shown in table 2；
Reliability grade form after table 2 is average
3) reliability original allocation value is calculated
First, the scoring number ω of each subsystem is calculatedi(i=1,2 ..., M)：
Secondly, product scoring number ω is calculated：
Calculate the scoring coefficient C of each subsystemi(i=1,2 ..., M)：
Ci=ωi/ω
Assuming that the RELIABILITY INDEX of product isThen distribute to the initial reliability index of each subsystem For：
Step 2：Reliability prediction
Assuming that carry out estimated reliability to the equipment by certain suitable method, obtain each subsystem of the equipment can By property intended result, as shown in table 3；
The reliability prediction result of table 3
Sequence number Subsystem Predicted value
1 Subsystem 1 R1
2 Subsystem 2 R2
……
M Subsystem M RM
Due to train, then system reliability is the product of each subsystem reliability, i.e. Reliability Prediction of System knot Fruit is：
Step 3：Judge whether reliability prediction value reaches reliability requirement
The Reliability Prediction of System value being calculated is contrasted with Reliability Index, if predicted value reaches reliable Property require, then using initial Reliability Distribution scheme, complete System Reliability Assignment work；If predicted value is not reaching to reliability Index request, then need to carry out reliability reallocation, continue following step；
Step 4：Calculate the Reliability Distribution value confidential interval based on Bootstrap
Its specific practice is as follows：
1) sample space is constructed
According to foregoing expert analysis mode information, i-th of subsystem, the sample space of score value of j-th factor are Xi,j= (r1,i,j,r2,i,j,...,rN,i,j), wherein i=1,2 ..., M, j=1,2 ..., L；Each subsystem is under different factors Sample space, as shown in table 4；
Sample space of the 4 each subsystem of table under different factors
Factor 1 Factor 2 …… Factor L
Subsystem 1 X1,1 X1,2 …… X1,L
Subsystem 2 X2,1 X2,2 …… X2,L
…… …… …… …… ……
Subsystem M XM,1 XM,2 …… XM,L
2) make have the resampling put back to from sample space, obtain a new expert analysis mode table；
3) the Reliability Distribution value under sampling results is calculated
Its specific practice is as follows:
Calculate the scoring number ω of each subsystemi(i=1,2 ..., M)：
Secondly, product scoring number ω is calculated：
Calculate the scoring coefficient C of each subsystemi(i=1,2 ..., M)：
Ci=ωi/ω
Under this step the 2) result of step sampling, the RELIABILITY INDEX of each subsystemFor：
4) 2) with 3) two steps B times (B desirable 1000,10000 etc.) in repeat step four, then each subsystem obtains B Reliability Distribution value；
5) ascending sort is carried out to B Reliability Distribution value of i-th of subsystem, splits data into ten deciles, remove Confidential interval of the section of branch and upper Along ent composition as Reliability Distribution value
Step 5：Reliability using each subsystem confidential interval as constraint is distributed in detail
Its specific practice is as follows：
1) reliability reallocation is carried out according to convectional reliability reassignment method
First, according to the estimated reliability size of each subsystem, it is ordered as successively by incremental order：
Reliability is relatively lowAll bring up to some value R0, and original reliability is higher Keep constant, then the reliability R of systemSFor：
Then k0It is the maximum for the f for meeting following inequality：
In formula, RN+1=1；
Therefore, according to traditional redistribution procedure,The level of reliability for being both needed to bring up to is：
2) reliability reallocation value and the confidential interval upper limit are contrasted, chooses smaller as final allocation result
Assuming that the reliability reallocation value of a-th of subsystem is more than the Reliability Distribution value confidence upper limit of the subsystem, i.e., The reliability performance of the subsystem does not reach reliability reallocation and required really, or reaches cost that the requirement needs are spent too Greatly；Therefore, its Reliability Distribution value confidence upper limit is takenReliability Distribution result as the subsystem；
Then, finding reliability still has room for promotion, or other subsystems that improving cost is minimum, undertakes unfinished finger Mark task, and examine whether the reliability value after distribution meets confidential interval requirement, as being unsatisfactory for requiring after distributing in detail, then take Its confidence upper limit, and find improvable subsystem successively, until both fall within can for the detailed apportioning cost of reliability of all subsystems By in the confidential interval of property apportioning cost, untill reaching Reliability Index requirement.
By above step, make reliability reallocation more scientific and reasonable, efficiently solve convectional reliability reallocation nothing Method considers the problem of Practical Project accessibility；
(3) advantage and effect：
The present invention provides a kind of detailed distribution method of extra-high voltage GIL equipment dependabilities, and its advantage is：
1. the present invention provides the foundation and scope that refer to for reliability reallocation, convectional reliability is efficiently solved again The problem of some subsystems that distribution clean cut is brought can not meet reliability requirement, pass through each subsystem Reliability Distribution value Confidential interval, determining that its Reliability Distribution value is actual allows feasible domain of walker, effectively improves System Reliability Assignment effect The economy of rate and system design.
2. method proposed by the present invention calculates simplicity, easily realize, facilitate engineers and technicians to grasp and use, be easy to apply Promote.
Brief description of the drawings
Fig. 1 is the extra-high voltage GIL equipment task reliability models of the present invention.
Fig. 2 is the method for the invention flow chart.
Embodiment
Below by taking extra-high voltage GIL equipment as an example, with reference to accompanying drawing, the present invention is described in further details.
The function of GIL equipment is to ensure the transmitting of extra-high-voltage alternating current electricity, and its structure includes 11 parts：Fix three Post insulator, slide three support insulators, disc insulator, electrically connect, conductor, radome, housing (containing flange), sealing ring, Telescopic joint, particulate trap and gas (SF6).According to real work mission requirements, the reliability model of the system is provided, it is such as attached Shown in Fig. 1.
Because extra-high voltage GIL equipment is in the concept phase of scheme, product reliability data lack very much, therefore fill Divide the original allocation for by expertise knowledge, taking scoring distribution method to carry out reliability.Reliability refers to as defined in actual task It is designated asAccording to GIL equipment features, the expert analysis mode table provided is designed, as shown in table 5.
The GIL Reliability Distribution Specialist Research tables of table 5
Sequence number Product unit Complexity Technical merit Working time Environmental condition
1 Fix three support insulators
2 Slide three support insulators
3 Disc insulator
4 Electrically connect
5 Conductor
6 Radome
7 Housing (contains flange)
8 Sealing ring
9 Telescopic joint
10 Particulate trap
11 Gas (SF6)
A kind of detailed distribution method of extra-high voltage GIL equipment dependabilities of the present invention, i.e., a kind of extra-high voltage based on Bootstrap The detailed distribution method of GIL equipment dependabilities, as shown in Figure 2, its step is as follows：
Step 1：Initial Reliability Distribution
1) the reliability score information of 6 experts is collected
The 1st expert's reliability grade form of table 6
Sequence number Product unit Complexity Technical merit Working time Environmental condition
1 Fix three support insulators 8 5 8 7
2 Slide three support insulators 8 6 8 7
3 Disc insulator 6 3 8 7
4 Electrically connect 6 3 8 7
5 Conductor 2 2 8 7
6 Radome 3 3 8 7
7 Housing (contains flange) 4 2 8 9
8 Sealing ring 5 3 8 7
9 Telescopic joint 8 3 8 9
10 Particulate trap 8 5 8 7
11 Gas (SF6) 3 2 8 7
The 2nd expert's reliability grade form of table 7
The 3rd expert's reliability grade form of table 8
Sequence number Product unit Complexity Technical merit Working time Environmental condition
1 Fix three support insulators 8 9 9 9
2 Slide three support insulators 9 9 9 9
3 Disc insulator 7 3 9 9
4 Electrically connect 5 5 8 7
5 Conductor 2 1 8 3
6 Radome 3 2 8 3
7 Housing (contains flange) 3 3 10 4
8 Sealing ring 1 2 10 3
9 Telescopic joint 6 8 10 6
10 Particulate trap 1 1 8 2
11 Gas (SF6) 2 2 8 2
The 4th expert's reliability grade form of table 9
Sequence number Product unit Complexity Technical merit Working time Environmental condition
1 Fix three support insulators 9 9 10 10
2 Slide three support insulators 10 10 9 10
3 Disc insulator 7 6 8 8
4 Electrically connect 7 8 8 9
5 Conductor 2 2 3 3
6 Radome 3 3 3 3
7 Housing (contains flange) 3 3 5 5
8 Sealing ring 6 4 8 8
9 Telescopic joint 8 7 7 8
10 Particulate trap 5 5 5 5
11 Gas (SF6) 1 1 1 1
The 5th expert's reliability grade form of table 10
The 6th expert's reliability grade form of table 11
Sequence number Product unit Complexity Technical merit Working time Environmental condition
1 Fix three support insulators 7 6 10 8
2 Slide three support insulators 8 7 10 9
3 Disc insulator 7 2 10 8
4 Electrically connect 6 2 10 6
5 Conductor 2 1 10 3
6 Radome 3 2 10 3
7 Housing (contains flange) 4 2 10 2
8 Sealing ring 4 2 10 4
9 Telescopic joint 6 5 10 5
10 Particulate trap 3 2 10 2
11 Gas (SF6) 1 1 8 1
2) average
The scoring of each expert is taken into average, as shown in table 12.
The expert analysis mode average of table 12
3) reliability original allocation value is calculated
The GIL reliability original allocation values of table 13
Sequence number Product unit ωi Ci Reliability original allocation
1 Fix three support insulators 4526.4 0.268017301 0.972156537
2 Slide three support insulators 5008.068 0.296537837 0.969239651
3 Disc insulator 2388.54 0.141430285 0.985209305
4 Electrically connect 1113.84 0.06595272 0.993075275
5 Conductor 187.264 0.01108828 0.998832415
6 Radome 258 0.015276702 0.998391733
7 Housing (contains flange) 482.589 0.028575071 0.996993843
8 Sealing ring 457.968 0.027117212 0.997146994
9 Telescopic joint 1981.458 0.117326137 0.987714548
10 Particulate trap 412.335 0.024415189 0.997430909
11 Gas (SF6) 72 0.004263266 0.999550921
Step 2：Reliability prediction
By, it is expected that obtaining the reliability prediction result of each subsystem of GIL equipment, as shown in table 14.
The GIL equipment dependability intended results of table 14
Sequence number Product unit Reliability prediction result
1 Fix three support insulators 0.9588
2 Slide three support insulators 0.9521
3 Disc insulator 0.9852
4 Electrically connect 0.9915
5 Conductor 0.9913
6 Radome 0.9898
7 Housing (contains flange) 0.9971
8 Sealing ring 0.9956
9 Telescopic joint 0.9811
10 Particulate trap 0.9968
11 Gas (SF6) 0.9999
Calculate reliability prediction result：
Step 3：Judge whether reliability prediction value reaches reliability requirement
The result of reliability prediction is not reaching to reliability requirement, it is therefore desirable to carries out reliability reallocation work.
Step 4：Calculate the Reliability Distribution value confidential interval based on Bootstrap
Sampled by 1000 Bootstrap to 6 expert analysis modes, each confidential interval of subsystem 80% is calculated such as Shown in table 15.
The GIL equipment dependability apportioning cost confidential intervals of table 15
Step 5：Reliability using confidential interval as constraint is distributed in detail
According to convectional reliability reassignment method, the subsystem that being calculated needs to improve has 2, is respectively：Slide Three support insulators and three support insulators are fixed, it is necessary to which the reliability value brought up to is R0=0.98353, more than respective Confidence upper limit, then it is the final apportioning cost of its reliability to take its confidence upper limit 0.9808281 and 0.9824306 respectively.
Analyzed by project planner, telescopic joint reliability still has room for promotion, according to reliability index requirements, then stretches The Reliability Distribution value that casing coupling finally undertakes is 0.984894811, the final result such as following table of each subsystem reliability reallocation Shown in 16.
The GIL equipment dependabilities of table 16 reallocation final result
So far, the final result of reliability reallocation disclosure satisfy that Reliability Index requirement.
As can be seen here, it is proposed by the present invention in detail distribution method can provide each subsystem distribute section reference, make Reliability reallocation is carried out in the reasonable scope, more meets engineering reality.Method is easy to operate, and easily realizes, Neng Gouti The efficiency of high reliability reallocation.

Claims (4)

  1. A kind of 1. detailed distribution method of extra-high voltage GIL equipment dependabilities, it is characterised in that：Specific implementation step is as follows：
    Step 1：Initial Reliability Distribution
    Initial Reliability Distribution is using scoring distribution method；First, N number of expert is invited to designed reliability scoring allocation table Given a mark, and collect scoring information；Secondly, the scoring of each factor of each subsystem is averaged respectively, obtains one averagely Reliability grade form afterwards；Finally, initial Reliability Distribution is carried out to each subsystem according to the calculation procedure of scoring distribution method, obtained To the initial Reliability Distribution value of each subsystem；
    Step 2：Reliability prediction
    Assuming that carrying out estimated reliability to the equipment by a predetermined method, the reliability for obtaining each subsystem of the equipment is pre- Result is counted, as shown in table 3；
    The reliability prediction result of table 3
    Sequence number Subsystem Predicted value 1 Subsystem 1 R1 2 Subsystem 2 R2 …… M Subsystem M RM
    Due to train, then system reliability is the product of each subsystem reliability, i.e. Reliability Prediction of System result is：
    <mrow> <msub> <mi>R</mi> <mi>S</mi> </msub> <mo>=</mo> <munderover> <mo>&amp;Pi;</mo> <mrow> <mi>i</mi> <mo>=</mo> <mn>1</mn> </mrow> <mi>M</mi> </munderover> <msub> <mi>R</mi> <mi>i</mi> </msub> <mo>;</mo> </mrow>
    Step 3：Judge whether reliability prediction value reaches reliability requirement
    The Reliability Prediction of System value being calculated is contrasted with Reliability Index, if predicted value reaches reliability and wanted Ask, then using initial Reliability Distribution scheme, complete System Reliability Assignment work；If predicted value is not reaching to reliability index It is required that then needing to carry out reliability reallocation, continue following step；
    Step 4：Calculate the Reliability Distribution value confidential interval based on Bootstrap；
    Step 5：Reliability using each subsystem confidential interval as constraint is distributed in detail.
  2. A kind of 2. detailed distribution method of extra-high voltage GIL equipment dependabilities according to claim 1, it is characterised in that：
    Initial Reliability Distribution described in step 1, its specific practice are as follows：
    1) expert analysis mode information is collected
    Assuming that equipment has M subsystem, choose L factor is to i-th point as reliability score basis, k-th of expert of note J-th of factor scores value of system is rk,i,j, then collected expert analysis mode information is as shown in table 1；Wherein, k=1,2 ..., N；I= 1,2,...,M；J=1,2 ..., L；
    The reliability grade form of k-th of the expert of table 1
    Factor 1 Factor 2 …… Factor L Subsystem 1 rk,1,1 rk,1,2 …… rk,1,L Subsystem 2 rk,2,1 rk,2,2 …… rk,2,L …… …… …… …… …… Subsystem M rk,M,1 rk,M,2 …… rk,M,L
    2) expert estimation is averaged
    Each expert is taken into average on the scoring of j-th of factor of i-th of subsystem, so as to obtain one it is average after can By property expert analysis mode table, as shown in table 2；
    Reliability grade form after table 2 is average
    3) reliability original allocation value is calculated
    First, the scoring number ω of each subsystem is calculatedi, wherein, i=1,2 ..., M：
    <mrow> <msub> <mi>&amp;omega;</mi> <mi>i</mi> </msub> <mo>=</mo> <munderover> <mo>&amp;Pi;</mo> <mrow> <mi>j</mi> <mo>=</mo> <mn>1</mn> </mrow> <mi>L</mi> </munderover> <mover> <msub> <mi>r</mi> <mrow> <mi>i</mi> <mo>,</mo> <mi>j</mi> </mrow> </msub> <mo>&amp;OverBar;</mo> </mover> </mrow>
    Secondly, product scoring number ω is calculated：
    <mrow> <mi>&amp;omega;</mi> <mo>=</mo> <munderover> <mo>&amp;Sigma;</mo> <mrow> <mi>i</mi> <mo>=</mo> <mn>1</mn> </mrow> <mi>M</mi> </munderover> <msub> <mi>&amp;omega;</mi> <mi>i</mi> </msub> </mrow>
    Calculate the scoring coefficient C of each subsystemi, wherein, i=1,2 ..., M：
    Ci=ωi/ω
    Assuming that the RELIABILITY INDEX of product isThen distribute to the initial reliability index of each subsystemFor：Wherein, i= 1,2,…,M：
    <mrow> <msubsup> <mi>R</mi> <mi>i</mi> <mo>*</mo> </msubsup> <mo>=</mo> <msubsup> <mi>R</mi> <mi>S</mi> <mo>*</mo> </msubsup> <mo>^</mo> <msub> <mi>C</mi> <mi>i</mi> </msub> <mo>.</mo> </mrow>
  3. A kind of 3. detailed distribution method of extra-high voltage GIL equipment dependabilities according to claim 1, it is characterised in that：
    Reliability Distribution value confidential interval of the calculating based on Bootstrap described in step 4, its specific practice are as follows：
    1) sample space is constructed
    According to foregoing expert analysis mode information, i-th of subsystem, the sample space of score value of j-th factor are Xi,j=(r1,i,j, r2,i,j,...,rN,i,j), wherein i=1,2 ..., M, j=1,2 ..., L；Sample of each subsystem under different factors is empty Between, as shown in table 4；
    Sample space of the 4 each subsystem of table under different factors
    Factor 1 Factor 2 …… Factor L Subsystem 1 X1,1 X1,2 …… X1,L Subsystem 2 X2,1 X2,2 …… X2,L …… …… …… …… …… Subsystem M XM,1 XM,2 …… XM,L
    2) make have the resampling put back to from sample space, obtain a new expert analysis mode table；
    3) the Reliability Distribution value under sampling results is calculated
    Its practice is as follows:
    Calculate the scoring number ω of each subsystemi, wherein i=1,2 ..., M：
    <mrow> <msub> <mi>&amp;omega;</mi> <mi>i</mi> </msub> <mo>=</mo> <munderover> <mo>&amp;Pi;</mo> <mrow> <mi>j</mi> <mo>=</mo> <mn>1</mn> </mrow> <mi>L</mi> </munderover> <msub> <mi>r</mi> <mrow> <mi>i</mi> <mo>,</mo> <mi>j</mi> </mrow> </msub> </mrow>
    Secondly, product scoring number ω is calculated：
    <mrow> <mi>&amp;omega;</mi> <mo>=</mo> <munderover> <mo>&amp;Sigma;</mo> <mrow> <mi>i</mi> <mo>=</mo> <mn>1</mn> </mrow> <mi>M</mi> </munderover> <msub> <mi>&amp;omega;</mi> <mi>i</mi> </msub> </mrow>
    Calculate the scoring coefficient C of each subsystemi, wherein i=1,2 ..., M：
    Ci=ωi/ω
    Under this step the 2) result of step sampling, the RELIABILITY INDEX of each subsystemFor：Wherein i=1,2 ..., M；
    <mrow> <msubsup> <mi>R</mi> <mi>i</mi> <mo>*</mo> </msubsup> <mo>=</mo> <msubsup> <mi>R</mi> <mi>S</mi> <mo>*</mo> </msubsup> <mo>^</mo> <msub> <mi>C</mi> <mi>i</mi> </msub> <mo>;</mo> </mrow>
    2) and 3) 4) two steps B times in repeat step four, then each subsystem obtain B Reliability Distribution value；
    5) ascending sort is carried out to B Reliability Distribution value of i-th of subsystem, splits data into ten deciles, remove Along ent Confidential interval of the section formed with upper Along ent as Reliability Distribution value
  4. A kind of 4. detailed distribution method of extra-high voltage GIL equipment dependabilities according to claim 1, it is characterised in that：
    The reliability using each subsystem confidential interval as constraint described in step 5 is distributed in detail, and its specific practice is as follows：
    1) reliability reallocation is carried out according to convectional reliability reassignment method
    First, according to the estimated reliability size of each subsystem, it is ordered as successively by incremental order：
    <mrow> <msub> <mi>R</mi> <mn>1</mn> </msub> <mo>&lt;</mo> <msub> <mi>R</mi> <mn>2</mn> </msub> <mo>&lt;</mo> <mn>...</mn> <mo>&lt;</mo> <msub> <mi>R</mi> <msub> <mi>k</mi> <mn>0</mn> </msub> </msub> <mo>&lt;</mo> <msub> <mi>R</mi> <mrow> <msub> <mi>k</mi> <mn>0</mn> </msub> <mo>+</mo> <mn>1</mn> </mrow> </msub> <mo>&lt;</mo> <mn>...</mn> <mo>&lt;</mo> <msub> <mi>R</mi> <mi>N</mi> </msub> </mrow>
    Reliability is relatively lowAll bring up to a value R0, and original reliability is higherKeep It is constant, then the reliability R of systemSFor：
    <mrow> <msub> <mi>R</mi> <mi>S</mi> </msub> <mo>=</mo> <msubsup> <mi>R</mi> <mn>0</mn> <msub> <mi>k</mi> <mn>0</mn> </msub> </msubsup> <mo>&amp;CenterDot;</mo> <munderover> <mo>&amp;Pi;</mo> <mrow> <mi>i</mi> <mo>=</mo> <msub> <mi>k</mi> <mn>0</mn> </msub> <mo>+</mo> <mn>1</mn> </mrow> <mi>N</mi> </munderover> <msub> <mi>R</mi> <mi>i</mi> </msub> </mrow>
    Then k0It is the maximum for the f for meeting following inequality：
    <mrow> <msup> <mrow> <mo>(</mo> <mfrac> <msubsup> <mi>R</mi> <mi>S</mi> <mo>*</mo> </msubsup> <mrow> <munderover> <mo>&amp;Pi;</mo> <mrow> <mi>i</mi> <mo>=</mo> <mi>f</mi> <mo>+</mo> <mn>1</mn> </mrow> <mrow> <mi>N</mi> <mo>+</mo> <mn>1</mn> </mrow> </munderover> <msub> <mi>R</mi> <mi>i</mi> </msub> </mrow> </mfrac> <mo>)</mo> </mrow> <mfrac> <mn>1</mn> <mi>f</mi> </mfrac> </msup> <mo>&gt;</mo> <msub> <mi>R</mi> <mi>f</mi> </msub> </mrow>
    In formula, RN+1=1；
    Therefore, according to traditional redistribution procedure,The level of reliability for being both needed to bring up to is：
    <mrow> <msub> <mi>R</mi> <mn>0</mn> </msub> <mo>=</mo> <msup> <mrow> <mo>(</mo> <mfrac> <msubsup> <mi>R</mi> <mi>S</mi> <mo>*</mo> </msubsup> <mrow> <munderover> <mo>&amp;Pi;</mo> <mrow> <mi>i</mi> <mo>=</mo> <msub> <mi>k</mi> <mn>0</mn> </msub> <mo>+</mo> <mn>1</mn> </mrow> <mrow> <mi>N</mi> <mo>+</mo> <mn>1</mn> </mrow> </munderover> <msub> <mi>R</mi> <mi>i</mi> </msub> </mrow> </mfrac> <mo>)</mo> </mrow> <mfrac> <mn>1</mn> <msub> <mi>k</mi> <mn>0</mn> </msub> </mfrac> </msup> </mrow>
    2) reliability reallocation value and the confidential interval upper limit are contrasted, chooses small person as final allocation result
    Assuming that the reliability reallocation value of a-th of subsystem is more than the Reliability Distribution value confidence upper limit of the subsystem, i.e. this point The reliability performance of system does not reach reliability reallocation and required really, and to reach the cost that the requirement needs are spent too big；Cause This, takes its Reliability Distribution value confidence upper limitReliability Distribution result as the subsystem；
    Then, finding reliability still has room for promotion, and other subsystems that improving cost is minimum, undertakes unfinished index and appoints Business, and examine whether the reliability value after distribution meets confidential interval requirement, as being unsatisfactory for requiring after detailed distribution, then take it to put Believe the upper limit, and find the improved subsystem of energy successively, until the detailed apportioning cost of reliability of all subsystems both falls within reliability In the confidential interval of apportioning cost, untill reaching Reliability Index requirement.
CN201710895322.0A 2017-09-28 2017-09-28 A kind of detailed distribution method of extra-high voltage GIL equipment dependabilities Pending CN107809112A (en)

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