CN107767086A - New energy station output lower limit rolling amendment method based on generated power forecasting - Google Patents
New energy station output lower limit rolling amendment method based on generated power forecasting Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
A kind of new energy station output lower limit rolling amendment method based on generated power forecasting a few days ago of the present invention, differs greatly for the new energy station year-on-year meteorological resources of history, while power network has no the part that effective mechanism distinguishes every daily generation.The present invention can provide a kind of effective mechanism for being adapted to such case, a kind of new energy station output lower limit rolling amendment method based on power prediction a few days ago.After considering that new energy station is large user's direct power supply, on the premise of electric power netting safe running, new energy station needs to ensure rational basic generated energy, to meet the electricity requirement for participating in large user's direct power supply.
Description
Technical field
The invention belongs to power domain, and in particular under a kind of new energy station based on generated power forecasting a few days ago is contributed
Limit rolling amendment method
Background technology
Wind-power electricity generation and photovoltaic generation are as green cleaning new energy, compared with conventional thermoelectricity, have certain intermittence,
Fluctuation, randomness, thus large-scale wind power or photoelectricity be incorporated into the power networks security, the stability of traditional power network are caused compared with
It is big to influence.Along with the large-scale development and focus utilization of new energy, will be brought more to the safe operation of power network and management and running
Carry out the problem of more.As what electricity changed gos deep into, it is more that power network has been gradually transitions safety economy environmental protection from initial safe operation
The scheduling of target, increasing new energy station participate in the transaction of large user's direct power supply, how to ensure to adjust in new energy station
In degree, especially ensure that electricity performs as agreed than more serious area abandoning wind, the generation schedule arrangement of generation of electricity by new energy field
By as new problem.
The country is main at present to realize that new energy coordinates control using new energy priority scheduling technology, is meeting power system peace
Under full stable operation constraint, according to generation of electricity by new energy prediction result, coordinate normal power supplies and generate electricity, formulate new energy station scheduling meter
Draw, ensure generation of electricity by new energy priority scheduling and preferential consumption, realization does not abandon wind (light) or abandons wind (light) less.The depth changed with electricity
Enter, power network has been gradually transitions the scheduling of safety economy environmental protection multiple target from initial safe operation, increasing new energy
Source station participates in the transaction of large user's direct power supply, and the new energy priority scheduling technology cannot be distinguished by the part of every daily generation,
Contract generation can not be effectively distinguished, base power generation, three public scheduling can not be realized.
Conventional method confirms that new energy station future generated energy is year-on-year based on new energy station history, and can not effectively distinguish
Contract generation, base power generation, it can not ensure that new energy station large user's direct-furnish electricity performs as agreed.The overall think of of this method
Lu Shi, in daily start, first to the new energy station for participating in large user's direct power supply, it is complete from current time to contract to calculate it
Into the total electricity for needing during the date to complete, and further determine that in the basic electricity for currently in a few days needing to complete；Secondly, root
According to the generating prediction curve on basic electricity and new energy the station same day, determine new energy station in the new energy field of this day whole day
Active power output of standing lower limit curve.Because said process is carried out in daily start, rolling amendment is consequently belonging to.It is daily to calculate newly
During the basic electricity of energy station, situation about can be performed to the day before yesterday is adjusted to follow-up electrical demand, so as to correct
Due to power prediction precision the problems such as caused by control error, so as on the whole ensure participate in large user's direct power supply new energy
The power generation needs of station.
The content of the invention
Because the new energy station year-on-year meteorological resources of history differ greatly, while power network has no effective mechanism and distinguishes daily hair
The part of electricity.The present invention can provide a kind of effective mechanism for being adapted to such case, and one kind is based on power prediction a few days ago
New energy station output lower limit rolling amendment method.After considering that new energy station is large user's direct power supply, transported in power grid security
On the premise of row, new energy station needs to ensure rational basic generated energy, to meet the electricity requirement for participating in large user's direct power supply.
Therefore, can be according to the situation of new energy station execution large user's direct power supply contract, under the output for determining the new energy station in real time
Limit, that is, takeForWhen new energy station still has large user's direct-furnish electricity to need to fulfil,Otherwise,
Concretely comprise the following steps：
S1 gets new energy station annual contract electricity and monthly Contract generation, provisional contract electricity；
S2 the new energy station to participating in marketing, calculates it from current time to this month the end of month in daily start
Period needs the monthly contract dump energy completed, and it is remaining from current time to contract execution Close Date provisional contract to calculate it
Electricity, and further determine that the pre-planned electricity for needing to complete within the same day, i.e., the remaining electricity that decomposes of monthly contract closes with interim
Electricity sum is decomposed with remaining；
S3, according to the generating prediction curve on the new energy station same day, calculates new energy station by device electricity algorithm
The same day predicts electricity, and then to prediction electricity compared with pre-planned electricity, such as pre-planned electricity is more than prediction electricity, then in advance
Plan electricity and be equal to prediction electricity, on the contrary it is constant；
S4 calculates the new energy station and worked as according to the generating prediction curve on pre-planned electricity and new energy the station same day
The daily transaction schedule of day performs curve；
S5 integral and calculating actual power generation, its same day is calculated according to actual power generation according to the actual power curve of feedback
Contract generation performance, as actual power generation be more than or equal to day Contract generation, illustrate that day Contract generation is fully completed；Otherwise with
Actual power generation completes electricity as day contract, i.e., preferentially completes provisional contract and decompose electricity, residue completes monthly contract decomposition
Electricity；
S6 completed electricity according to the same day, repeated 2 steps；Unfinished electricity is counted on into next month execution during the end of month.
Further, computational methods are：
S1 establishes the information of the direct power supply contract of its signing, including its contract label to participating in market-oriented new energy station i
Order time Ti S, plan perform time Ti L, annual contract electricityMonthly Contract generationProvisional contract electricity
S2 is in daily start time, to the new energy station i being in large user's direct power supply contract execution time range, root
Factually border electricity calculates the monthly Contract generation completed yesterday, the provisional contract electricity that yesterday completes；
This month completed monthly Contract generationUnfinished monthly Contract generation
The annual contract electricity of completionUnfinished annual contract electricityCompleted provisional contract electricityUnfinished provisional contract electricityAs this month has terminated, unfinished monthly Contract generation is tired out
It is added to time month execution；This month residue number of days is TM, provisional contract electricity is remaining to perform number of days TL；
According to unfinished monthly Contract generation and this month residue number of days, the monthly contract point for needing to complete on the same day is calculated
Solve electricity：Number of days is performed according to unfinished provisional contract electricity and provisional contract are remaining, is calculated in same day needs
The provisional contract of completion decomposes electricity：Then the pre-planned electricity in the station is
S3 is according to 96 point generate electricity predictions of the new energy station power prediction system in the same day new energy station provided a few days ago
Data, using slope interpolation method, 288 point generating prediction data of generation same day new energy station；
According to 288 point generating prediction data of same day new energy station, integral and calculating same day prediction electricity Pi PF；Such as Pi F≥
Pi PFThen Pi F=Pi PF；
S4 uses QUADRATIC PROGRAMMING METHOD FOR, asks for 288 point of daily transaction schedule curves of the new energy station i in this day, target
Function is below equation：
Wherein：
For the active power output lower limit for the same day N points asked for, unit megawatt；Ordinary circumstance N=288
ΔT：For according to it is active calculating device electricity time,Unit hour
Pi F：For the generated energy demand that the new energy station i same day is basic, unit megawatt hour
For harmonious index,Wherein：
The maximum generation predicted value for the t that the prediction that generated electricity a few days ago for new energy station provides；
Wp、WrFor weight coefficient, in actual applications, WpCan value 10.0, WrCan value 0.1；
The constraints must being fulfilled for is：
The minimum active power output at i.e. each moment is necessarily less than the predicted value at the moment；
At the end of the same day, according to the actual electricity of actual power integral and calculatingSuch asThen monthly contract
Decompose electricityElectricity is decomposed with provisional contractComplete；Such as
Such asProvisional contract decomposes electricity and is fully completed, and monthly contract decomposition electricity is completed
S6 is such asProvisional contract decomposes electricity and completedMonthly contract decomposition electricity completes 0；
Repeat step 2, roll and decomposition execution is carried out to Contract generation.
This method receives space computing model according to new energy stations such as the wind power plant of foundation, photovoltaic plants, and system combines
Standby conventional power unit generation schedule data, conventional AGC units backspin, load plan data, tie line plan and real time data are dispatched,
Calculate the receiving ability of the whole network new energy.The new energy station for participating in large user's direct-furnish is directed to simultaneously, it is first in daily start
First to the new energy station of participation large user's direct power supply, it is determined that in the basic electricity for currently in a few days needing to complete；Secondly, according to this
Basic electricity and the generating prediction curve on the new energy station same day, determine that new energy station has in the new energy station of this day whole day
Work(output lower limit curve., can be to the situation pair of the day before yesterday execution during large user's direct-furnish power consumption of daily calculating new energy station
Follow-up electrical demand is adjusted, and error is controlled caused by the problems such as so as to correct the precision due to power prediction, so as to
Ensure the power generation needs of participation large user's direct power supply new energy station on the whole.
Brief description of the drawings
Fig. 1 is flow chart of the present invention
Embodiment
First, algorithm steps brief introduction
The general thought of this method is：
New energy station annual contract electricity is got (to decompose annual contract volume by planning department with monthly Contract generation
To the moon), provisional contract electricity；
(time point is calculated in daily start), the new energy station to participating in marketing, calculates it from current time
To the monthly contract dump energy for needing to complete during this month the end of month, calculate it and face from current time to the contract execution Close Date
Shi Hetong dump energies, and further determine that pre-planned electricity (the remaining decomposition electricity of monthly contract for needing to complete within the same day
With the remaining decomposition electricity sum of provisional contract)；
By device electricity algorithm, according to the generating prediction curve on the new energy station same day, calculate new energy station and work as
Day prediction electricity, then to prediction electricity compared with pre-planned electricity, electricity is predicted if it is expected that drawing electricity and being more than, then in advance
Plan electricity and be equal to prediction electricity, on the contrary it is constant.
According to the generating prediction curve on pre-planned electricity and new energy the station same day, the new energy station same day is calculated
Daily transaction schedule perform curve；
According to the actual power curve of feedback, integral and calculating actual power generation, the conjunction of its same day is calculated according to actual power generation
(if actual power generation is more than or equal to day Contract generation, illustrate that day Contract generation is fully completed (monthly conjunction with electricity performance
Completed with provisional contract decomposition electricity with electricity is decomposed), on the contrary it is (preferential complete to complete electricity using actual power generation as day contract
Electricity is decomposed into provisional contract, residue completes monthly contract decomposition electricity))；
Electricity was completed according to the same day, repeats 2 steps；
Unfinished electricity need to be counted on to next month execution during the end of month.
2nd, algorithm realizes idiographic flow
New energy station i to participating in the marketization, establish the information of the direct power supply contract of its signing, including its contract signing
Time (Ti S), plan perform the time (Ti L), annual contract electricityMonthly Contract generationProvisional contract electricityDeng.
In daily start time, to the new energy station i being in large user's direct power supply contract execution time range, according to
Actual electricity calculates the monthly Contract generation completed yesterday, the provisional contract electricity that yesterday completes.
This month completed monthly Contract generationUnfinished monthly Contract generation
The annual contract electricity of completionUnfinished annual contract electricityCompleted provisional contract electricityUnfinished provisional contract electricityIf this month has terminated, unfinished monthly Contract generation is tired out
It is added to time month execution.This month residue number of days is TM, provisional contract electricity is remaining to perform number of days TL。
According to unfinished monthly Contract generation and this month residue number of days, the monthly contract point for needing to complete on the same day is calculated
Solve electricity：Number of days is performed according to unfinished provisional contract electricity and provisional contract are remaining, is calculated in same day needs
The provisional contract of completion decomposes electricity：Then the pre-planned electricity in the station is
According to 96 point generate electricity prediction numbers of the new energy station power prediction system in the same day new energy station provided a few days ago
According to using slope interpolation method, 288 point generating prediction data of generation same day new energy station.Formula：Check interpolation method formula text
Shelves.
According to 288 point generating prediction data of same day new energy station, integral and calculating same day prediction electricity Pi PF.If Pi F
≥Pi PFThen Pi F=Pi PF。
Using QUADRATIC PROGRAMMING METHOD FOR, 288 point of daily transaction schedule curves of the new energy station i in this day, target letter are asked for
Number is below equation (3-5)：
Wherein：
For the active power output lower limit for the same day N points asked for, unit megawatt.Ordinary circumstance N=288
ΔT：For according to it is active calculating device electricity time,Unit hour
Pi F：For the generated energy demand that the new energy station i same day is basic, unit megawatt hour
For harmonious index,Wherein：
The maximum generation predicted value for the t that the prediction that generated electricity a few days ago for new energy station provides.
Wp、WrFor weight coefficient, in actual applications, WpCan value 10.0, WrCan value 0.1.
The constraints that formula (3-5) must is fulfilled for is：
The minimum active power output at i.e. each moment is necessarily less than the predicted value at the moment.
It is herein in a few days rolling amendment daily transaction schedule curve (current period does not do).
At the end of the same day, according to the actual electricity of actual power integral and calculatingIfThen monthly conjunction
With decomposition electricityElectricity is decomposed with provisional contractComplete.If
IfProvisional contract decomposes electricity and is fully completed, and monthly contract decomposition electricity is completed
IfProvisional contract decomposes electricity and completedMonthly contract decomposition electricity completes 0.
Repeat step 2, roll and decomposition execution is carried out to Contract generation.
Although an embodiment of the present invention has been shown and described, for the ordinary skill in the art, can be with
A variety of changes, modification can be carried out to these embodiments, replace without departing from the principles and spirit of the present invention by understanding
And modification, the scope of the present invention is defined by the appended.
Claims (2)
- A kind of 1. new energy station output lower limit rolling amendment method based on generated power forecasting a few days ago, it is characterised in that step Suddenly it is：S1 gets new energy station annual contract electricity and monthly Contract generation, provisional contract electricity；S2 the new energy station to participating in marketing, calculates it from current time to during this month the end of month in daily start The monthly contract dump energy completed is needed, calculates it from the remaining electricity of current time to contract execution Close Date provisional contract Amount, and further determine that the pre-planned electricity for needing to complete within the same day, i.e., monthly contract is remaining to decompose electricity and provisional contract Residue decomposes electricity sum；S3, according to the generating prediction curve on the new energy station same day, calculates the new energy station same day by device electricity algorithm Electricity is predicted, then to prediction electricity compared with pre-planned electricity, such as pre-planned electricity is more than prediction electricity, then pre-planned Electricity is equal to prediction electricity, otherwise constant；S4 calculates the new energy station same day according to the generating prediction curve on pre-planned electricity and new energy the station same day Daily transaction schedule performs curve；S5 integral and calculating actual power generation, its same day contract is calculated according to actual power generation according to the actual power curve of feedback Electricity performance, as actual power generation be more than or equal to day Contract generation, illustrate that day Contract generation is fully completed；Otherwise with reality Generated energy completes electricity as day contract, i.e., preferentially completes provisional contract and decompose electricity, residue completes monthly contract decomposition electricity；S6 completed electricity according to the same day, repeated 2 steps；Unfinished electricity is counted on into next month execution during the end of month.
- A kind of 2. new energy station output lower limit rolling amendment based on generated power forecasting a few days ago according to claim 1 Method, it is characterised in that computational methods are：S1 establishes the information of the direct power supply contract of its signing, including during its contract signing to participating in the new energy station i of the marketization Between Ti S, plan perform time Ti L, annual contract electricityMonthly Contract generationProvisional contract electricityS2 is in daily start time, to the new energy station i being in large user's direct power supply contract execution time range, according to reality Border electricity calculates the monthly Contract generation completed yesterday, the provisional contract electricity that yesterday completes；This month completed monthly Contract generationUnfinished monthly Contract generationComplete Annual contract electricityUnfinished annual contract electricityCompleted provisional contract electricityUnfinished provisional contract electricityAs this month has terminated, unfinished monthly Contract generation is added up Performed by secondary month；This month residue number of days is TM, provisional contract electricity is remaining to perform number of days TL；According to unfinished monthly Contract generation and this month residue number of days, the monthly contract decomposition electricity for needing to complete on the same day is calculated Amount：Number of days is performed according to unfinished provisional contract electricity and provisional contract are remaining, calculate had needed on the same day Into provisional contract decompose electricity：Then the pre-planned electricity in the station isS3 according to 96 point generating prediction data of the new energy station power prediction system in the same day new energy station provided a few days ago, Using slope interpolation method, 288 point generating prediction data of generation same day new energy station；According to 288 point generating prediction data of same day new energy station, integral and calculating same day prediction electricity Pi PF；Such as Pi F≥Pi PFThen Pi F=Pi PF；S4 uses QUADRATIC PROGRAMMING METHOD FOR, asks for 288 point of daily transaction schedule curves of the new energy station i in this day, object function For below equation：<mrow> <munder> <mi>min</mi> <msubsup> <munder> <mi>p</mi> <mo>&OverBar;</mo> </munder> <mrow> <mi>i</mi> <mo>,</mo> <mi>t</mi> </mrow> <mrow> <mi>w</mi> <mo>,</mo> <mi>d</mi> </mrow> </msubsup> </munder> <mo>&lsqb;</mo> <msup> <mi>W</mi> <mi>p</mi> </msup> <mo>*</mo> <msup> <mrow> <mo>(</mo> <msubsup> <mi>P</mi> <mi>i</mi> <mi>F</mi> </msubsup> <mo>-</mo> <munderover> <mo>&Sigma;</mo> <mrow> <mi>t</mi> <mo>=</mo> <mn>1</mn> </mrow> <mi>N</mi> </munderover> <msubsup> <munder> <mi>p</mi> <mo>&OverBar;</mo> </munder> <mrow> <mi>i</mi> <mo>,</mo> <mi>t</mi> </mrow> <mrow> <mi>w</mi> <mo>,</mo> <mi>d</mi> </mrow> </msubsup> <mo>*</mo> <mi>&Delta;</mi> <mi>T</mi> <mo>)</mo> </mrow> <mn>2</mn> </msup> <mo>+</mo> <msup> <mi>W</mi> <mi>r</mi> </msup> <mo>*</mo> <munderover> <mo>&Sigma;</mo> <mrow> <mi>t</mi> <mo>=</mo> <mn>1</mn> </mrow> <mi>N</mi> </munderover> <msup> <mrow> <mo>(</mo> <msubsup> <mi>r</mi> <mrow> <mi>i</mi> <mo>,</mo> <mi>t</mi> </mrow> <mi>w</mi> </msubsup> <mo>)</mo> </mrow> <mn>2</mn> </msup> <mo>&rsqb;</mo> </mrow>Wherein：For the active power output lower limit for the same day N points asked for, unit megawatt；Ordinary circumstance N=288ΔT：For according to it is active calculating device electricity time,Unit hourPi F：For the generated energy demand that the new energy station i same day is basic, unit megawatt hourFor harmonious index,Wherein：The maximum generation predicted value for the t that the prediction that generated electricity a few days ago for new energy station provides；Wp、WrFor weight coefficient, in actual applications, WpCan value 10.0, WrCan value 0.1；The constraints must being fulfilled for is：<mrow> <mn>0</mn> <mo><</mo> <msubsup> <munder> <mi>p</mi> <mo>&OverBar;</mo> </munder> <mrow> <mi>i</mi> <mo>,</mo> <mi>t</mi> </mrow> <mrow> <mi>w</mi> <mo>,</mo> <mi>d</mi> </mrow> </msubsup> <mo><</mo> <msubsup> <mover> <mi>p</mi> <mo>&OverBar;</mo> </mover> <mrow> <mi>i</mi> <mo>,</mo> <mi>t</mi> </mrow> <mrow> <mi>w</mi> <mo>,</mo> <mi>f</mi> </mrow> </msubsup> </mrow>The minimum active power output at i.e. each moment is necessarily less than the predicted value at the moment；At the end of the same day, according to the actual electricity of actual power integral and calculatingSuch asThen monthly contract decomposition electricity AmountElectricity is decomposed with provisional contractComplete；Such asSuch asProvisional contract decomposes electricity and is fully completed, and monthly contract decomposition electricity is completedS6 is such asProvisional contract decomposes electricity and completedMonthly contract decomposition electricity completes 0；Repeat step 2, roll and decomposition execution is carried out to Contract generation.
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Cited By (7)
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|---|---|---|---|---|
| CN108596456A (en) * | 2018-04-12 | 2018-09-28 | 国网天津市电力公司电力科学研究院 | A kind of generation schedule preparation method of wind power plant long-term electricity transaction in participating in |
| CN110611308A (en) * | 2019-08-30 | 2019-12-24 | 贵州电网有限责任公司 | Method for correcting and determining minimum active power of new energy station participating in direct electricity purchase of large users |
| CN111612239A (en) * | 2020-05-15 | 2020-09-01 | 云南电网有限责任公司电力科学研究院 | Correction method for power generation plan of marketized power plant |
| CN112467801A (en) * | 2020-10-21 | 2021-03-09 | 中国电力科学研究院有限公司 | New energy station intra-day power generation plan optimization method and system |
| CN113991638A (en) * | 2021-08-31 | 2022-01-28 | 华能(福建)能源开发有限公司 | Prediction method for generated power of new energy station in different places |
| CN115764926A (en) * | 2022-11-14 | 2023-03-07 | 金麒麟新能源股份有限公司 | Power detection method and system for new energy station |
| CN116979390A (en) * | 2023-07-31 | 2023-10-31 | 南京中汇电气科技有限公司 | Automatic voltage reactive power control dual-regulation method for new energy station |
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