CN107330638A - A kind of aerospace project Risk Comprehensive Evaluation method that decision making-oriented is supported - Google Patents
A kind of aerospace project Risk Comprehensive Evaluation method that decision making-oriented is supported Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
A kind of aerospace project Risk Comprehensive Evaluation method that decision making-oriented is supported, comprises the following steps：1st, project is carried out in groups；The similitude between aerospace project is recognized, similar aerospace project is classified as one group, it is believed that being included into same group and being only included into its Risk Comprehensive Evaluation result with the aerospace project of group to be directly compared；2nd, the renewal speed to project risk information carries out evaluation；Whether the renewal speed of project risk information is used for judging single risk by conscientious concern and disposal, the risk blocked during identification management；3rd, project risk disposal efficiency is carried out and evaluated；Risk disposal efficiency is used for judging the efficiency of project risk disposal；4th, the enthusiasm to project risk identification carries out evaluation；The enthusiasm of project risk identification is used for whether actively recognizing project, reporting risk to judge；5th, project risk level is carried out and evaluated；It is that height is low judges to project overall risk level that project risk level, which is used for,.
Description
Technical field
The application is related to a kind of aerospace project Risk Comprehensive Evaluation method that decision making-oriented is supported, is navigated particular by analysis
Data are produced in the identification of its project development process risk, analysis, reply equivalent risk management activity, to project risk information more
New speed, risk disposal efficiency, project risk level, the enthusiasm of project risk identification are evaluated, so as to project management
Decision-making provides support, belongs to project management field.
Background technology
Aerospace project is a very huge and complicated system engineering, relates generally to a variety of professional, numerous producers, is one
Individual multi-specialized, multidisciplinary, many unit large-scale cooperation synthesis, its main object space product by many levels subsystem, set
Standby, portion (group) part is constituted, with the characteristics of technical difficulty is big, product is complicated.
Risk management as project management an important ring, to uncertain and uncertain in aerospace project development process
Property the influence that brings be identified, analyze, and take corresponding measure to carry out the reply of risk.ISO 17666:2016《Aerospace system
System-risk management (Space systems-Risk Management)》Specification has been carried out to aerospace project risk management processes,
Identification and assessment, the formulation of risk handling measurement and implementation, the monitoring of risk and communication including risk etc..China Aerospace science and technology
Group company by planning, identification with assessing, should to, monitor risk management processes divided, and propose corresponding requirements.
US National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), European Space Agency (ESA) also form respectively respective risk management relevant criterion requirement,
Such as NASA/SP-2011-3422NASA risk managements handbook (NASA Risk Management Handbook), NASA/SP-
2010-576NASA decisions in the face of risk handbook (NASA Risk-informed Decision Making Handbook), ECSS-M-
ST-80C space items management-risk management (Space project management-Risk management).
Current aerospace project risk management pays close attention to single risk in itself, concern project overall risk level and risk of the present invention
Management operating situation, considers the analysis application of the various data of development process risk management generation, is carried out into project
After group, renewal speed, risk disposal efficiency, project risk level, the enthusiasm of project risk identification from project risk information
Overall merit is carried out to project risk situation, supported so as to provide quantization for project management decision-making.
The content of the invention
A) purpose：It is an object of the invention to provide a kind of aerospace project Risk Comprehensive Evaluation method that decision making-oriented is supported,
It is as system level approach, based on to being produced in the identification of aerospace project development process risk, analysis, reply equivalent risk management activity
The analysis and excavation of raw data, carry out overall merit to project overall risk level and risk management running situation, are project pipe
Manage decision-making and quantitative support is provided.
B) technical scheme：
Step one：Project is carried out in groups.The similitude between aerospace project is recognized, similar aerospace project is classified as one
Group, it is considered herein that being included into same group and being only included into its Risk Comprehensive Evaluation result with the aerospace project of group directly to enter
Row is compared.
Step 2：Renewal speed to project risk information carries out evaluation.The renewal speed of project risk information is used for commenting
Whether single risk is sentenced by conscientious concern and disposal, and the risk " blocked " during identification management, these risks are likely to be
Because disposal difficulty is larger, it is also possible to pass into silence, its information is long-term without renewal.
Step 3：Project risk disposal efficiency is carried out and evaluated.Risk disposal efficiency is used for judging project risk disposal
Efficiency, the efficiency both including risk in project is judged, the efficiency judge for having risk between same group of project again.
Step 4：Enthusiasm to project risk identification carries out evaluation.The enthusiasm of project risk identification is used for project
Whether actively recognize, report risk to be judged.
Step 5：Project risk level is carried out and evaluated.Project risk level is used for being high to project overall risk level
It is low judged.
Wherein, the similitude between aerospace project is recognized described in step one, similar aerospace project is classified as one group, it has
Body implementation process is as follows：(1) project essential characteristic data, including product type, the project cycle, project funds, project people are obtained
Member's scale data；(2) similarity determination threshold value in groups is set；(3) project essential characteristic data are based on, aerospace project are calculated similar
Property, judge project of the similitude in threshold value as same group.
Wherein, evaluation is carried out to the renewal speed of project risk information described in step 2, it is as follows that it implements process：
(1) project is obtained and its with group project risk management data, including each renewal time of risk information；(2) calculation risk information
Renewal time interval；(3) each risk is directed to, the last information updating time interval of the risk is compared and is updated with historical information
The last information updating speed of single risk is evaluated on time interval, longitudinal direction；(4) it is risky for, compare each risk
The last information updating speed of single risk is evaluated in the last information updating time interval, transverse direction；(5) setting updates speed
Spend decision threshold；(6) comprehensive longitudinal evaluation conclusion and lateral appraisement conclusion, according to renewal speed decision threshold, identification information is more
New slower risk.
Wherein, project risk disposal efficiency is carried out described in step 3 and evaluated, it is as follows that it implements process：(1) obtain
Project and its same group project risk management data, including stage residing for risk (refer to and have reported, recognized, having made a plan, having planned
Implement, close), each stage duration of risk；(2) assay risk identification confirms efficiency；(3) assay planning replying risk
Formulate efficiency；(4) assay planning replying risk confirms efficiency；(5) assay implementing plan efficiency；(6) analyze remaining
Risk identification efficiency；(7) assessment item risk integrative disposal efficiency.
Wherein, the enthusiasm that project risk identification works is carried out described in step 4 and evaluated, it is as follows that it implements process：
(1) obtain project and its with group project risk management data, including project process, confirm risk schedule seriousness, confirm
Risk possibility occurrence, risk identification time point；(2) calculation risk integrated level；(3) calculate with the relative risk identification of group project
Relative active；(4) enthusiasm of overall merit item recognition risk.
Wherein, project risk level is carried out described in step 5 and evaluated, it is as follows that it implements process：(1) project is obtained
Risk management data, including Project Product include the product maturity of unit, project personnel's working experience data, project equipment
Situation data, project task cross-sectional data, residual risk consequence seriousness, residual risk possibility occurrence, item recognition risk
Enthusiasm；(2) according to Project Product maturity, project personnel's working experience, project equipment situation, project task section number
According to calculating project potential risk penalty coefficient；(3) overall merit project risk level.
The beneficial effects of the present invention are：(1) project group technology is used, the scope of overall merit is expanded out of project team
Open up between project team, can be with lateral comparison with the risk intervention level between group project, disposal speed etc.；(2) make full use of
All kinds of process datas of risk management, item characteristic data, realize real-time Risk Comprehensive Evaluation；(3) from project risk information
Renewal speed, risk disposal efficiency, project risk level, the enthusiasm many aspects of project risk identification are to project risk management
Evaluated, providing quantization for decision-making supports.
Brief description of the drawings
Fig. 1 is basic implementing procedure figure of the invention.
Fig. 2 is drafting projectAndOverall risk level radar figure.
Symbol description is as follows：
Pi, (i=1,2 ..., n), n is project total number to i-th of project.
SLi, i-th of project system level.
CLi, i-th of Project Product type.
I-th of Project Product Type C LiAffiliated higher level's product type.
PTi, the project development time that i-th of Project contract or developing requirement are arranged.
PCi, the project funds that i-th of Project contract or developing requirement are arranged.
PPi, participate in the staff size that i-th of project is developed, particularly, PPi ω, the project people that the interior numbering of the ω group is i
Member's scale.
ε, in groups similarity determination threshold value, 0≤ε≤1.
εp, item similarity, particularly,Finger project PiWith project PjBetween item similarity.
εsc, product type similarity, particularly,Finger project PiWith project PjBetween product type similarity.
εpt, project cycle similarity, particularly,Finger project PiWith project PjBetween project cycle similarity.
εpc, project funds similarity, particularly,Finger project PiWith project PjBetween project funds similarity.
εpp, project personnel's scale similarity, particularly,Finger project PiWith project PjBetween project personnel's scale it is similar
Degree.
W, project number in groups, i.e., n project is divided into W group.
Nω, the project number that includes in the ω group.
Pi ω, the ω group interior i-th project (i=1,2 ..., Nω)。
SPω, the ω group item destination aggregation (mda).
R, risk, particularly,I-th of project P in the ω groupi ωJ-th of risk (j=1,2 ..., Ω), Ω
For the project risk quantity.
I-th of project P in the ω groupi ωNumbering j the risk kth time information updating time (k=1,2 ...,
Ψ), Ψ is the total update times of the risk information.
I-th of project P in the ω groupi ωNumbering j+1 information updating of risk kth and kth time information more
New time interval, whereinFor last time information updating time and the time interval of current time.
tnow, current time.
θ,The exponential distribution function parameter of obedience,For the estimation carried out to it.
The exponential distribution function parameter of obedience,For the estimation carried out to it.
The longitudinal renewal speed of the last information of i-th of bullets j risk in the ω group.
The horizontal renewal speed of the last information of i-th of bullets j risk in the ω group.
Renewal speed decision threshold,
RHUS, longitudinal slow risk aggregate of risk information updating.
RMUS, the horizontal slow risk aggregate of risk information updating.
I-th of project average risk information updating speed in the ω group.
Tj Γ,ω,i, the ω group in i-th of bullets j risk reported, recognized, having made a plan, plan reality
Apply, close each stage duration, Γ=reg, plan, check, do, close.
θreg, Tj reg,ω,iThe exponential distribution function parameter of obedience,For the estimation carried out to it.
Ereg, risk identification confirmation efficiency, particularly,I-th of bullets j risk identification in the ω group
Confirm efficiency.
EPreg, project risk identification confirmation efficiency, particularly, EPi reg,ω, the ω group in i-th of project risk identification it is true
Recognize efficiency θplan, Tj plan,ω,iThe exponential distribution function parameter of obedience,For the estimation carried out to it.
Eplan, planning replying risk formulation efficiency, particularly,I-th of bullets j wind in the ω group
Dangerous preparedness plan formulates efficiency.
EPplan, project risk preparedness plan formulation efficiency, particularly, EPi plan,ω, interior i-th of the project risk of the ω group
Preparedness plan formulates efficiency.
θcheck, Tj check,ω,iThe exponential distribution function parameter of obedience,For the estimation carried out to it.
Echeck, planning replying risk confirmation efficiency, particularly,I-th of bullets j wind in the ω group
Dangerous preparedness plan confirms efficiency.
EPcheck, project risk preparedness plan confirmation efficiency, particularly, EPi check,ω, interior i-th of the project wind of the ω group
Dangerous preparedness plan confirms efficiency.
θdo, Tj do,ω,iThe exponential distribution function parameter of obedience,For the estimation carried out to it.
Edo, planning replying risk efficiency of the practice, particularly,I-th of bullets j risk should in the ω group
To implementing plan efficiency.
EPdo, project risk preparedness plan efficiency of the practice, particularly, EPi do,ω, interior i-th of the project risk of the ω group should
To implementing plan efficiency.
θclose, Tj close,ω,iThe exponential distribution function parameter of obedience,For the estimation carried out to it.
Eclose, residual risk confirmation efficiency, particularly,I-th of bullets j risk in the ω group
Residual risk confirms efficiency.
EPclose, project residual risk confirmation efficiency, particularly, EPi close,ω, the remaining wind of interior i-th of the project of the ω group
Danger confirms efficiency.
Tj ω,i, interior i-th of the bullets j of the ω group risk disposal total duration.
θall, Tj ω,iThe exponential distribution function parameter of obedience,For the estimation carried out to it.
Eclose, residual risk confirmation efficiency, particularly,I-th of bullets j risk in the ω group
Residual risk confirms efficiency.
EPclose, project residual risk confirmation efficiency, particularly, EPi close,ω, the remaining wind of interior i-th of the project of the ω group
Danger confirms efficiency.
E, risk integrative disposal efficiency, particularly,I-th of bullets j joint disposal efficiency in the ω group.
EPi ω, interior i-th of the project risk joint disposal efficiency of the ω group.
PDTi ω, the duration of interior i-th of the project self-starting of the ω group to current point in time.
I-th of project process in the ω group.
I-th of bullets j risk schedule seriousness in the ω group.
I-th of bullets j risk possibility occurrence in the ω group.
TPj plan,ω,i, interior i-th of the bullets j of the ω group risk identification time point.
CRL, risk integrative grade, particularly,I-th of bullets j risk integrative grade in the ω group.
I-th of project and less value in the progress of k-th of project in ω group.
I-th of project carries out the time in corresponding the ω group under progress.
Project Pi ωSince the project untilEach integrated level CRL risk amounts when duration.
∈, risk integrative grade weight.
Project Pi ωWith projectRisk identification relative active.
The project P that numbering is i in the ω groupi ωRecognize risk enthusiasm.
The project P that numbering is i in the ω groupi ωInclude unit quantity.
The project P that numbering is i in the ω groupi ωThe unit that numbering is j.
The project P that numbering is i in the ω groupi ωThe product maturity for the unit that numbering is j.
The project P that numbering is i in the ω groupi ωThe personnel that numbering is j.
The related work time limit.
MEMTj ω,i,Academic title.
The project P that numbering is i in the ω groupi ωAltogether using equipment (containing Software tool) quantity.
The project P that numbering is i in the ω groupi ωFirst using novel device (containing Software tool) quantity.
MTi ω, the project P that the interior numbering of the ω group is ii ωMain task and working condition and its residing environment species number
Mesh.
UMTi ω, not yet carry out the project P that numbering is i in the ω group of flight examinationi ωMain task and working condition and
Environment species number residing for it.
I-th of bullets j residual risk consequence seriousness in the ω group.
I-th of bullets j residual risk possibility occurrence in the ω group.
I-th of Project Product maturity in the ω group.
I-th of project personnel's experience level in the ω group.
I-th of project new equipment service condition in the ω group.
TMTi ω, interior i-th of the project new task situation of the ω group.
I-th of project potential risk penalty coefficient in the ω group.
I-th of project residual risk integrated level in the ω group.
Each integrated level quantity of i-th of project residual risk in the ω group.
R ∈, residual risk integrated level weight.
I-th of project P in the ω groupi ωResidual risk level.
I-th of project P in the ω groupi ωProject risk quantization level.
Embodiment
The specific implementation step of the present invention is further described 1-2 below in conjunction with the accompanying drawings.
Step one：Project is carried out in groups.The similitude between aerospace project is recognized, similar aerospace project is classified as one
Group, it is considered herein that being included into same group and being only included into its Risk Comprehensive Evaluation result with the aerospace project of group directly to be carried out
Compare.
1.1 obtain project essential characteristic data, including product type, the project cycle, project funds, project personnel's scale
Data.For project Pi, (i=1,2 ..., n),
1.1.1 product type data：Aerospace project said system level SLiAnd product type CLi.Aerospace project product
System-level, subsystem level, unit level, portion (group) part level are divided into according to level.It is system-level (to be defended including carrier rocket, spacecraft
Star, manned spaceship) two major classes.Carrier rocket, spacecraft etc. are made up of each subsystem.For example, carrier rocket is by rocket body structure
System, power plant system, control system, propellant utilization system, PUS, telemetry system, exterior measuring security system, fault detect processing
System, escape system, spare system, ground equipment system etc. are constituted.Subsystem is made up of unit, and such as rocket body structure system is by arrow
Body structure, separation priming system, separator are constituted.Unit is made up of parts, and such as separator is by Booster separation device, level
Between separator, radome fairing lateral separation device, radome fairing be longitudinally separated device, star (ship) separator, escape parting surface point
Constituted from device, escape tower parting surface separator etc..
1.1.2 the project cycle：The project development time PT of Project contract or developing requirement agreementi.According to the task of development
Difference, project may periods of months to the several years.
1.1.3 project funds：The project funds PC of Project contract or developing requirement agreementi。
1.1.4 project personnel's scale：The staff size PP that participation project is developedi。
1.2 set similarity determination threshold epsilon (0≤ε≤1) in groups, and ε values are higher, represent that similarity determination is stricter,
Otherwise looser, ε represents product type, the project cycle, project funds, project personnel's scale identical two items when taking 1
Mesh can just be included in same group, and ε represents that all items can be included in same group when taking 0.
1.3 are based on project essential characteristic data, calculate aerospace project similitude, judge project of the similitude in threshold value
For same group.
1.3.1 product type similarity ε is calculatedsc。
1.3.1.1 the different project P of project said system leveliWith project Pj, i.e. SLi≠SLj,
1.3.1.2 systemic hierarchial belongs to system-level project P togetheriWith project Pj, i.e. SLi=SLj=system-level.When project production
When category type is identical,OtherwiseI.e.
1.3.1.3 systemic hierarchial is identical but the project P of nonsystematic leveliWith project Pj, i.e. SLi=SLj≠ system-level, note
CLiAffiliated higher level's product type isCLjAffiliated higher level's product type isWhen Project Product type is identical, and belonging to it
Higher level's product type is identical,When Project Product type is identical, and its affiliated higher level's product type is different,
When Project Product type difference,I.e.
Project P1" development of Long March 3-A carrier rocket Upper Stage separator " and project P2" long diformazan carrier rocket Upper Stage
Separator is developed ", P1Said system level SL1=unit level, P2Said system level SL2=unit level, both said systems
Level is identical, and nonsystematic level；P1Product type CL1=separator, affiliated higher level's product type isP2Product type CL2=separator, affiliated higher level's product type isThere is CL1=
CL2,Obtain project P1With project P2Product type similarity
1.3.2 calculate project cycle phase and seemingly spend εpt。
Any project PiWith project PjProject cycle similarityFor：
Project P1Cycle is 8 months, project P2Cycle is 6 months, obtains project P1With project P2Cycle similarity
1.3.3 project funds similarity ε is calculatedpc。
Any project PiWith project PjProject funds similarityFor：
Project P1Funds are 1,200,000 yuan, project P2Funds are 1,000,000 yuan, obtain project P1With project P2Funds similarity
1.3.4 project staff size similarity ε is calculatedpp。
Any project PiWith project PjProject personnel's scale similarityFor：
Project P1Ginseng grinds the people of personnel 12, project P2Ginseng grinds the people of personnel 10, obtains project P1With project P2Staff size similarity
1.3.5 calculate item similarity εp
Any project PiWith project PjItem similarityFor：Special, as i=j,Project P1With project P2Item similarity
1.3.6 project is in groups
1.3.6.1 find and project P1With the project of group.M is calculating process intermediate variable；
Work as m=1, then project P1Individually in groups, with project P1Terminate in groups for the project of starting point, otherwise P1With PmIn groups.Continually look for
P1、PmGroups of project:Assuming that including M project P in group at present1、Pm,…,PkIf there is o satisfactions Then by project PoIn addition group, otherwise with project P1For the item of starting point
Mesh terminates in groups.
1.3.6.2 groups of project is removed, to are remaining items, 1.3.6.1 operations are re-started, until all items
Mesh is in groups.Project in groups after, be divided into W group, be designated as SPω={ Pi ω, (i=1,2 ..., Nω), ω=1,2 ..., W,
∑ωNω=n.
Project P1, project P2, project P3, project P4, project P5Between item similarity such as following table：
Similarity determination threshold epsilon=0.5 is taken, is hadThere is project P1, project P2In groups；Have againThere is project P1, project P2, project P3In groups；Have again There is project P4, project P5Can not be with project P1, project P2, project P3In groups；Then obtain
First similar terms group SP1, SP1By project P1, project P2, project P3Constitute, be designated as SP1={ Pi 1, (i=1,2 ..., N1=
3)}.Investigate are remaining items P4, project P5, haveThere is project P4, project P5In groups, it is designated as SP2。
Step 2：Renewal speed to project risk information carries out evaluation.The renewal speed of project risk information is used for commenting
Whether single risk is sentenced by conscientious concern and disposal, and the risk " blocked " during identification management, these risks are likely to be
Because disposal difficulty is larger, it is also possible to pass into silence, its information is long-term without renewal.
2.1 obtain project and its with group project risk management data, including each renewal time of risk information；
Each renewal time of risk information:Remember i-th of project P in the ω groupi ωIncluding risk
I.e. the project has Ω risk, wherein j-th of risk information renewal time is designated asWherein,It is
The time that i-th of bullets j risk is reported for the first time in the ω group,It is i-th of bullets j in the ω group
Risk last time information updating time.
Project team SP1Interior projectThere are three risksIts each risk information renewal time be：
2.2 calculation risk information updating time intervals；
Note current time is tnow, calculation risk information updating time interval
Particularly, remember
It is assumed that current time tnow=2017-03-31, calculates project team SP1Interior projectThere are three risksRenewal time interval：
2.3 are directed to each risk, compare the last information updating time interval of the risk and historical information renewal time
The last information updating speed of single risk is evaluated on interval, longitudinal direction；
2.3.1 current invention assumes that risk information renewal time intervalObey exponential distribution Calculate θ estimate
2.3.2 the longitudinal renewal speed of the last information of risk of i-th of bullets j in the ω group is calculated
For riskCalculateIts last information is calculated longitudinally to update
Speed
For riskCalculateCalculate the longitudinal renewal speed of its last information
For riskCalculateIts last information is calculated to indulge
To renewal speed
2.4 is risky for institute, compares and evaluates single in the last information updating time interval of each risk, transverse direction
Risk the last time information updating speed；
2.4.1 current invention assumes that each risk the last time information updating time interval Obey exponential distributionCalculateEstimate
2.4.2 the horizontal renewal speed of the last information of risk of i-th of bullets j in the ω group is calculated
Project team SP1Interior projectThere are three risksIts last time information updating time interval point
It is notIt is assumed that projectThere are four risks
Its last time information updating time interval is respectively
MeshThere are two risksIts last time information updating time interval is respectively
Calculate
Calculating projectRiskProject risk the last time horizontal renewal speed of information：
Calculating projectRiskProject risk the last time horizontal renewal speed of information：
Calculating projectRiskProject risk the last time horizontal renewal speed of information：
Calculating projectRiskProject risk the last time horizontal renewal speed of information：
Calculating projectRiskProject risk the last time horizontal renewal speed of information：
Calculating projectRiskProject risk the last time horizontal renewal speed of information：
Calculating projectRiskProject risk the last time horizontal renewal speed of information：
Calculating projectRiskProject risk the last time horizontal renewal speed of information：
Calculating projectRiskProject risk the last time horizontal renewal speed of information：
2.5 setting renewal speed decision thresholds Value is higher, represents that renewal speed judges stricter, instead
It is looser,Characterize and statistically require that renewal speed will be faster thanOther it is similar update, according to small probability thing
The principle that part can not possibly occur,Recommend value 0.1.
2.6 integrate longitudinal evaluation conclusion and lateral appraisement conclusion, and according to renewal speed decision threshold, identification information updates
Slower risk.
2.6.1 certain project (i-th of project in the ω group) slow risk of longitudinal risk information updating is recognized,
I.e.For risk R ∈ RHUS,
Its last time risk information renewal speed information updating speed conventional compared with the risk is slow.
Investigate project team SP1Interior projectThere are three risksIts last information longitudinally updates speed
Degree is respectively risk0.0481, risk0.483, risk0.579. setHave That is riskLast time risk information renewal speed is conventional compared with the risk
Information updating speed it is slow, should give concern.
2.6.2 certain project (i-th of project in the ω group) slow risk of horizontal risk information updating is recognized,
I.e.For risk R ∈ RMUS,
Its last time risk information renewal speed is slow compared with the information updating speed of other similar risks.
Investigate project team SP1Interior projectThere are three risksProjectFour risks ProjectThere are two risksIts horizontal risk information updating speed is respectively risk
0.089, risk0.415, risk0.802, risk0.517, risk0.645, risk0.802, risk0.517, risk0.517, risk0.645. setHave
That is riskLast time risk information renewal speed is slow compared with the information updating speed of other similar risks, should give concern.
2.6.3 i-th of project average risk information updating speed in the ω group is calculated
In units of group, the slow project of average risk information updating is (for example, average risk information updating speed is most in identification group
Five slow projects), compared with similar projects, these project risk information updating speed have much room for improvement, to risk degree of concern
And the detailed information record of risk disposal has much room for improvement.
Project team SP1Interior projectThere are three risksCalculating project average risk information updating speed
Spend and beSimilarly, project is calculatedAverage risk information updating speed
Spend and beCalculating projectAverage risk information updating speed isAmong three projects,Minimum, i.e. projectRisk information renewal speed is most slow.
Step 3：Project risk disposal efficiency is carried out and evaluated.Risk disposal efficiency is used for judging project risk disposal
Efficiency, the efficiency both including risk in project is judged, the efficiency judge for having risk between same group of project again.
3.1 obtain project and its (refer to group project risk management data, including stage residing for risk and reported, known
, do not made a plan, implementing plan, closing), each stage duration of risk；
3.1.1 the stage has been reported, has referred to make a report on (i.e. risk is reported) from risk identification and makes a report on content to risk identification and obtain
The stage of confirmation, generally, the identification for carrying out risk by designer make a report on, and confirm that risk identification makes a report on content by director designer,
Whether the consequence that identification, the probability of happening of risk including risk, risk are likely to result in is accurate.
3.1.2 cognitive phase, refers to make a report on content check from risk identification to formulate to planning replying risk and completes and fill out
The stage of report, risk identification is made a report on after content check, and director designer can specify the director of the risk, by risk director
Formulate and make a report on planning replying risk.
3.1.3 made a plan the stage, referred to make a report on the rank being given the ratification to planning replying risk from planning replying risk
Section, after planning replying risk is made a report on, feasibility, the reasonability of planning replying risk are confirmed by modes such as experts' evaluations.
3.1.4 in the implementing plan stage, refer to go to the rank being finished since after planning replying risk is given the ratification
Section.
3.1.5 risk dwell period, refers to carry out residual risk confirmation after being finished from planning replying risk and closes
In the stage of risk, generally carried out by modes such as experts' evaluations.
3.1.6 each stage duration is obtained：Remember that the risk of i-th of bullets j in the ω group has been reported, recognized,
Make a plan, implementing plan, close each stage when a length of Tj Γ,ω,i, wherein ω=1,2 ..., W, i=1,2 ..., Nω, j=1,
2 ..., Ω, Γ=reg, plan, check, do, close.Note：For the risk being not turned off, before only obtaining its current generation
The duration in stage, is such as in the risk in the stage of having made a plan, and obtains it and cognitive phase duration and has reported stage duration,
Other durations are set to count e greatly+∞。
Project team SP2Interior two projectsAndProjectThere are three risksProjectThere are four wind
Danger The stage duration information collected is as follows：
It is turned off, has reported stage durationCognitive phase durationMake a plan
Stage durationImplementing plan stage durationDwell period duration
It is turned off, has reported stage durationCognitive phase durationMake a plan rank
Duan ShichangImplementing plan stage durationDwell period duration
In the implementing plan stage, stage duration has been reportedCognitive phase duration
Make a plan stage durationImplementing plan stage durationDwell period duration
It is turned off, has reported stage durationCognitive phase durationMake a plan
Stage durationImplementing plan stage durationDwell period duration
It is turned off, has reported stage durationCognitive phase durationMake a plan
Stage durationImplementing plan stage durationDwell period duration
It is turned off, has reported stage durationCognitive phase durationMake a plan
Stage durationImplementing plan stage durationDwell period duration
It is turned off, has reported stage durationCognitive phase durationMake a plan
Stage durationImplementing plan stage durationDwell period duration
3.2 assay risk identifications confirm efficiency
3.2.1 current invention assumes that having reported stage durationObey exponential distribution
Calculate θregEstimate
Project team SP2It is related to seven risks,These risks on
Report stage duration is respectively 3,4,7,3,6,8,8, is calculated
3.2.2 the risk identification for calculating i-th of bullets j in the ω group confirms efficiency
Particularly, just made a report on for risk, in the risk for having reported the stage, due to its Treg=e+∞, its risk identification confirmation effect
Rate is Ereg=0, i.e., the recognition and verification work of risk is only completed, its efficiency could be evaluated.Risk identification confirms efficiency
EregSpan (0,1), EregCharacterize statistically risk identification and confirm that efficiency is faster than 100*Ereg% other similar wind
Danger, EregHigher, efficiency is higher.
CalculateConfirm efficiency Deng each risk identification, it is as follows.
Risk identification confirms efficiency：
Risk identification confirms efficiency：
Risk identification confirms efficiency：
Risk identification confirms efficiency：
Risk identification confirms efficiency：
Risk identification confirms efficiency：
Risk identification confirms efficiency：
Then, haveThe recognition and verification of two risks is relatively inefficient, andThe knowledge of two risks
Not Que Ren efficiency it is of a relatively high.
3.2.3 calculate i-th of project risk identification in the ω group and confirm efficiency In units of group, it is believed that for group project, EPregHigher, project risk identification confirms that efficiency is higher.
Calculate project team SP2Interior two projectsAndRisk identification confirm efficiency, it is as follows.
Project risk identification confirms efficiency
Project risk identification confirms efficiency
It can draw, projectRisk identification confirm efficiency be higher than
3.3 assay planning replying risks formulate efficiency
3.3.1 current invention assumes that cognitive phase duration Tj plan,ω,iObey exponential distributionMeter
Calculate θplanEstimate
Project team SP2The risk being related to,Cognitive phase
Duration is respectively 10,7,5,15,12,13,10, is calculated
3.3.2 the planning replying risk for calculating i-th of bullets j in the ω group formulates efficiencyParticularly, for having been acknowledged that risk is present, during planning replying risk is formulated
Risk, and risk to be confirmed has just been recognized, due to its Tplan=e+∞, it is E that its planning replying risk, which formulates efficiency,plan=0,
The formulation work of planning replying risk is only completed, its efficiency could be evaluated.Planning replying risk formulates efficiency
EplanSpan (0,1), EplanCharacterize statistically planning replying risk formulation efficiency and be faster than 100*EplanOther of % are same
Class risk, EplanHigher, efficiency is higher.
CalculateEfficiency is formulated Deng each planning replying risk, such as
Under：
Planning replying risk formulates efficiency：
Planning replying risk formulates efficiency：
Planning replying risk formulates efficiency：
Planning replying risk formulates efficiency：
Planning replying risk formulates efficiency：
Planning replying risk formulates efficiency：
Planning replying risk formulates efficiency：
Then,Planning replying risk formulates efficiency,It is of a relatively high that planning replying risk formulates efficiency.
3.3.3 calculate i-th of project risk preparedness plan in the ω group and formulate efficiencyIn units of group, it is believed that for group project, EPplan,ω
Higher, it is higher that project risk preparedness plan formulates efficiency.
Calculate project team SP2Interior two projectsAndPlanning replying risk formulate efficiency, it is as follows：
Project risk preparedness plan formulates efficiency
Project risk preparedness plan formulates efficiency
It can draw, projectPlanning replying risk formulate efficiency be higher than
3.4 assay planning replying risks confirm efficiency
3.4.1 current invention assumes that the stage duration T that made a planj check,ω,iObey exponential distribution Calculate θcheckEstimate
Project team SP2The risk being related to,Made a plan
Stage duration is respectively 5,3,15,8,3,15,9, is calculated
3.4.2 the planning replying risk for calculating i-th of bullets j in the ω group confirms efficiencyParticularly, stage, cognitive phase, rank of having made a plan have been reported for being still in
The risk of section, due to its Tcheck=e+∞, its planning replying risk confirmation efficiency is Echeck=0, i.e., only complete to risk resolution
The confirmation work of plan, could be evaluated its efficiency.Planning replying risk confirms efficiency EcheckSpan (0,1),
EcheckCharacterize statistically planning replying risk and confirm that efficiency is faster than 100*Echeck% other similar risks, EcheckIt is higher,
Efficiency is higher.
CalculateConfirm efficiency Deng each planning replying risk, such as
Under：
Planning replying risk confirms efficiency：
Planning replying risk confirms efficiency：
Planning replying risk confirms efficiency：
Planning replying risk confirms efficiency：
Planning replying risk confirms efficiency：
Planning replying risk confirms efficiency：
Planning replying risk confirms efficiency：
Then,Planning replying risk confirms that efficiency is of a relatively high,Planning replying risk confirms that efficiency is relative
It is relatively low.
3.4.3 calculate i-th of project risk preparedness plan in the ω group and confirm efficiencyIn units of group, it is believed that for same group project,
EPcheckHigher, project risk preparedness plan confirms that efficiency is higher.
Calculate project team SP2Interior two projectsAndPlanning replying risk confirm efficiency, it is as follows：
Project risk preparedness plan confirms efficiency
Project risk preparedness plan confirms efficiency
It can draw, projectPlanning replying risk confirm efficiency be higher than
3.5 assay implementing plan efficiency
3.5.1 current invention assumes that implementing plan stage duration Tj do,ω,iObey exponential distribution
Calculate θdoEstimate
Project team SP2The risk being related to,Implementing plan rank
Duan Shichang is respectively 25,35, e+∞, 35,28,45,15, calculate
3.5.2 the risk implementing plan efficiency of i-th of bullets j in the ω group is calculated
Particularly, for be still in reported the stage, cognitive phase, the stage of having made a plan, the implementing plan stage risk, due to
Its Tdo=e+∞, its implementing plan efficiency is Edo=0, i.e., the implementation of planning replying risk is only completed, could be to its efficiency
Evaluated.Risk implementing plan efficiency EdoSpan (0,1), EdoCharacterize the implementation of statistically planning replying risk
Efficiency is faster than 100*Edo% other similar risks, EdoHigher, efficiency is higher.
CalculateIt is as follows Deng each risk implementing plan efficiency：
Risk implementing plan efficiency：
Risk implementing plan efficiency：
In the risk implementing plan stage, the stage not yet terminates, and its risk implementing plan efficiency is not calculated；
Risk implementing plan efficiency：
Risk implementing plan efficiency：
Risk implementing plan efficiency：
Risk implementing plan efficiency：
Then,Risk implementing plan efficiency is of a relatively high,Risk implementing plan is relatively inefficient.
3.5.3 the efficiency of the practice of i-th of project risk preparedness plan in the ω group is calculated In units of group, it is believed that for group project, EPdoHigher, the efficiency of the practice of project risk preparedness plan is got over
It is high.
Calculate project team SP2Interior two projectsAndPlanning replying risk efficiency of the practice, it is as follows：
Project risk preparedness plan efficiency of the practice
Project risk preparedness plan efficiency of the practice
It can draw, projectPlanning replying risk efficiency of the practice it is a little higher than
3.6 analysis residual risks confirm efficiency
3.6.1 current invention assumes that risk dwell period duration Tj close,ω,iObey exponential distribution Calculate θcloseEstimate
Project team SP2The risk being related to,Implementing plan rank
Duan Shichang is respectively 5,7, e+∞, 5,4,10,7, calculate
3.6.2 calculate the residual risk in the ω group after i-th of bullets j risk resolution and confirm efficiency Particularly, for be still in reported the stage, cognitive phase, the stage of having made a plan,
Implementing plan stage, the risk of risk dwell period, due to its Tclose=e+∞, its residual risk confirmation efficiency is Eclose=0,
Its efficiency could only be evaluated for the risk having been switched off.Residual risk confirms efficiency EcloseSpan (0,
1), EcloseCharacterize statistically residual risk and confirm that efficiency is faster than 100*Eclose% other similar risks, EcloseIt is higher,
Efficiency is higher.
CalculateResidual risk Deng each risk confirms efficiency,
It is as follows：
Residual risk confirms efficiency：
Residual risk confirms efficiency：
In the risk implementing plan stage, its residual risk is not calculated and confirms efficiency；
Residual risk confirms efficiency：
Residual risk confirms efficiency：
Residual risk confirms efficiency：
Residual risk confirms efficiency：
Then,Residual risk confirms that efficiency is of a relatively high,Residual risk confirms relatively inefficient.
3.6.3 calculate i-th of project residual risk in the ω group and confirm efficiency In units of group, it is believed that for group project, EPcloseHigher, project residual risk confirms that efficiency is got over
It is high.
Calculate project team SP2Interior two projectsAndResidual risk confirm efficiency, it is as follows：
Project residual risk confirms efficiency
Project residual risk confirms efficiency
It can draw, projectResidual risk confirm efficiency it is a little higher than
3.7 assessment item risk integrative disposal efficiencies.
3.7.1 the risk disposal total duration T of i-th of bullets j in the ω group is calculatedj ω,i=
∑Γ=reg, plan, check, do, close Tj Γ,ω,i, particularly, for be still in reported the stage, cognitive phase, made a plan
Stage, implementing plan stage, the risk of risk dwell period, because its risk disposal total duration is e+∞。
Calculate project team SP2Interior two projectsAndEach risk disposes total duration.
Risk disposes total duration
Risk disposes total duration
Risk disposes total duration
Risk disposes total duration
Risk disposes total duration
Risk disposes total duration
Risk disposes total duration
3.7.2 current invention assumes that risk disposal total duration Tj ω,iObey exponential distributionMeter
Calculate θallEstimate
Project team SP2The risk being related to,Disposal total duration
Respectively 48,56, e+∞, 66,53,91,49, calculate
3.7.3 the joint disposal efficiency of i-th of bullets j in the ω group is calculated Joint disposal efficiency E spans (0,1), E characterizes system
Meter learns other similar risks that upper joint disposal efficiency is faster than 100*E%, and E is higher, and efficiency is higher.
CalculateIt is as follows Deng the joint disposal efficiency of each risk：
Joint disposal efficiency：
Joint disposal efficiency：
In the risk implementing plan stage, its joint disposal efficiency is not calculated；
Joint disposal efficiency：
Joint disposal efficiency：
Joint disposal efficiency：
Joint disposal efficiency：
Then,Joint disposal efficiency is of a relatively high,Joint disposal is relatively inefficient.
3.7.4 i-th of project risk joint disposal efficiency in the ω group is calculated
In units of group, it is believed that for group project, EPi ωHigher, project risk joint disposal efficiency is higher.
Calculate project team SP2Interior two projectsAndRisk integrative disposal efficiency, it is as follows：
Project risk joint disposal efficiency
Project risk joint disposal efficiency
It can draw, projectRisk integrative disposal efficiency be higher than
Step 4：Enthusiasm to project risk identification carries out evaluation.The enthusiasm of project risk identification is used for project
Whether actively recognize, report risk to be judged.
4.1 obtain project and its serious with group project risk management data, including project process, the risk schedule of confirmation
Property, confirm risk possibility occurrence, risk identification time point；
4.1.1 project process：The self-starting of finger project accounts for the ratio of the whole project cycle to the duration of current point in time.Note
When a length of PDT of i-th of project self-starting to current point in time in the ω groupi ω, project process
Project team SP2Interior two projectsAndCycle is respectivelyIndividual month (150 days),Individual month (180
My god), the duration of project self-starting to current point in time is respectivelyMy god,My god.Then projectProgress Progress
4.1.2 the risk schedule seriousness confirmed, refers to that the risk schedule after content confirms is made a report on to risk identification is tight
Principal characteristic, that is, enter the effect of risk seriousness of cognitive phase, remembers in the ω group after i-th of bullets j risk
Fruit seriousness isHaveWhereinRepresent risk schedule seriousness etc.
Level be it is slight,Represent risk schedule severity level be it is slight,Represent that risk schedule severity level is
It is medium,Represent risk schedule severity level be it is serious,It is disaster to represent risk schedule severity level.
Each grade is described in detail and is shown in Table 1.
The risk schedule severity level of table 1 is classified
ProjectThere are four risksIts risk schedule severity level is respectively：
RiskConsequence severity level
RiskConsequence severity level
RiskConsequence severity level
RiskConsequence severity level
4.1.3 the risk possibility occurrence confirmed, refer to risk identification is made a report on the risk after content confirms occur can
Energy property, that is, enter the risk possibility occurrence of cognitive phase, remembers that the risk of i-th of bullets j in the ω group occurs
Possibility isHaveWhereinRepresent that risk possibility occurrence grade is
Seldom,Represent risk possibility occurrence grade be it is seldom,Represent risk possibility occurrence grade be it is few,It is possible to represent risk possibility occurrence grade,Risk possibility occurrence grade is represented to be likely to.Respectively
Individual grade is described in detail and is shown in Table 2.
The risk possibility occurrence grade separation of table 2
| Degree | Grade | Risk possibility degree is stated |
| Seldom | a | Hardly occur, probability of happening p ＜ 0.01% |
| Seldom | b | Seldom occur, 0.01%≤p of probability of happening ＜ 0.1% |
| It is few | c | Occur once in a while, 0.1%≤p of probability of happening ＜ 1% |
| May | d | Frequently occur, 1%≤p of probability of happening ＜ 10% |
| It is likely to | e | It is likely occurred, probability of happening p >=10% |
ProjectThere are four risksIts risk possibility occurrence grade is respectively：
RiskPossibility occurrence grade
RiskPossibility occurrence grade
RiskPossibility occurrence grade
RiskPossibility occurrence grade
4.1.4 risk identification time point, i.e. risk enter the time point in the stage that has confirmed that, remember in the ω group i-th
Mesh numbering j risk identification time point is TPj plan,ω,i。
ProjectThere are four risksIts risk identification time point is respectively：
RiskRisk identification time pointConfirm the risk within the 15th day i.e. after project starts,
Similarly hereinafter；
RiskRisk identification time point
RiskRisk identification time point
RiskRisk identification time point
4.2 calculation risk integrated levels
According to the risk schedule seriousness of confirmation and the risk possibility occurrence of confirmation, integrated according to the calculation risk of table 3
GradeWhereinRepresent that risk integrative grade is minimum,Represent risk integrative grade highest.Risk integrative higher grade, and risk is bigger.
The risk integrative rating calculation of table 3
ProjectThere are four risksIts risk integrative grade is respectively：
RiskRisk integrative grade
RiskRisk integrative grade
RiskRisk integrative grade
RiskRisk integrative grade
The project P that numbering is i in 4.3 pairs of the ω groupsi ω, calculate its project for being k with another numberingWind
Danger identification relative active.
4.3.1 calculateCalculate
Project team SP2Interior two projectsAndProjectProgress Progress
HaveThen to projectHave
4.3.2 the project of calculating Pi ωSince the project untilEach integrated level risk amount when duration
ProjectSince the project untilIt when when, investigate arrive projectThere are four risks ExistIt was confirmed before time point, then each integrated level risk amount
4.3.3, risk integrative grade weight is set
4.3.4 the project of calculating Pi ωWith projectRisk identification relative active
Then there is projectWith project Pi ωRisk identification relative activeParticularly,
Assuming that project Before time point, each integrated level risk amount is：
Project can be calculatedWith projectRisk identification relative active
Accordingly, projectWith projectRisk identification relative active
The project P that numbering is i in 4.4 pairs of the ω groupsi ω, the enthusiasm of its item recognition risk of overall merit.
Calculate the project P that numbering is i in the ω groupi ωRecognize risk enthusiasm Risk enthusiasmIt is higher, the project to the identification of risk in same group be it is higher.
ProjectRecognize risk enthusiasm
ProjectRecognize risk enthusiasm
Then, project team SP2Interior two projectsAndProjectRecognize that risk enthusiasm is slightly higher.
Step 5：Project risk level is carried out and evaluated.Project risk level is used for being high to project overall risk level
It is low judged.
5.1 obtain project risk management data, including Project Product includes the product maturity of unit, project personnel
Working experience data, project equipment situation data, project task cross-sectional data, residual risk consequence seriousness, residual risk hair
Raw possibility, the enthusiasm of item recognition risk；
5.1.1 Project Product includes the product maturity of unit, and unit refers to the composition portion of carrier rocket or spacecraft
Point, it is assembled together by required component, part, specific function can be completed, and with relatively independent physical configuration and clearly
External interface product unit, product maturity according to the design of unit product, production, test and applicable cases, to its matter
Amount with reliability and can level of application measurement.Remember the project P that numbering is i in the ω groupi ωInclude unitProduct maturity beWhereinRepresent the list
Machine product maturity grade is principle prototype product,Represent that the unit product maturity grade is produced for principle prototype
Product,It is engineering prototype product to represent the unit product maturity grade,Represent the unit product
Maturity grade is flying product,Represent that the unit product maturity grade examines product for flight,It is repeatedly flight examination product to represent the unit product maturity grade,Represent the unit product
Maturity grade is three-level approved product,It is two grades of approved products to represent the unit product maturity grade,It is one-level approved product to represent the unit product maturity grade.Unit product maturity grade, which is described in detail, sees
Table 4.
The aerospace unit product maturity of table 4 is described
Note：The content of table 4 is quoted from QJA 53-2010 aerospace unit products maturity deciding grade and level specification.
Project team SP2Interior two projectsAndWherein projectComprising unit and unit maturity it is as follows：
UnitMaturity
UnitMaturity
UnitMaturity
UnitMaturity
UnitMaturity
ProjectComprising unit and unit maturity it is as follows：
UnitMaturity
UnitMaturity
UnitMaturity
UnitMaturity
UnitMaturity
5.1.2 project personnel's working experience data, are made up of personnel's related work time limit, personnel academic title's data.Remember ω
The project P that numbering is i in individual groupi ωCertain personnelRelated work year is limited toAcademic title is
MEMTj ω,i。
Project team SP2Interior two projectsAndWherein projectAnd projectPerson works' time limit and academic title are as follows：
5.1.3 project equipment situation data, the novel device used during referring to (containing Software tool) data.Remember ω
The project P that numbering is i in individual groupi ωAltogether using equipment (containing Software tool)Part/set, wherein (being contained using novel device first
Software tool)Part/set.
Project team SP2Interior two projectsAndProjectAltogether using equipment (containing Software tool)Part/set, its
In first using novel device (contain Software tool)Part/set.ProjectAltogether using equipment (containing Software tool)Part/set, wherein first using novel device (containing Software tool)Part/set.
5.1.4 project task cross-sectional data, mission profile is aerospace project product in test, experiment, storage, transport, flown
The description of row and the in-orbit main task and working condition, residing environment used etc. in link etc., project task cross-sectional data
Including main task and working condition and its residing environment species number, and wherein not yet carry out flight examination task and
Working condition and its residing environment species.Remember the project P that numbering is i in the ω groupi ωMain task and working condition and its
Residing environment species number is MTi ω, wherein the species number for not yet carrying out flight examination is UMTi ω。
Project team SP2Interior two projectsAndProjectMain task and working condition and its residing environment species
Number isWherein not yet carry out flight examination species number beProjectMain task and working condition
And its residing environment species number isWherein not yet carry out flight examination species number be
5.1.5 residual risk consequence seriousness, refers to the consequence seriousness of residual risk after being closed to risk, note ω
I-th of bullets j residual risk consequence seriousness is in groupHave
Wherein each grade of the consequence seriousness of residual risk is described in detail and is shown in Table 1.
Project team SP2Interior two projectsAndProjectThere are three risksIts residual risk
Consequence severity level is respectively：
RiskResidual risk consequence severity level
RiskResidual risk severity level
RiskNot yet close, it is impossible to assess residual risk severity level.
ProjectThere are four risksThe consequence severity level of its residual risk is respectively：
RiskResidual risk consequence severity level
RiskResidual risk severity level
RiskResidual risk severity level
RiskResidual risk severity level
5.1.6 residual risk possibility occurrence, refers to residual risk possibility occurrence after risk is closed, and remembers in the ω group
I-th of bullets j residual risk possibility occurrence isHaveIt is remaining
Each grade of risk possibility occurrence, which is described in detail, is shown in Table 2.
Project team SP2Interior two projectsAndProjectThere are three risksIts residual risk
Possibility occurrence is respectively：
RiskResidual risk possibility occurrence
RiskResidual risk possibility occurrence
RiskNot yet close, it is impossible to assess residual risk possibility occurrence.
ProjectThere are four risksIts residual risk possibility occurrence is respectively：
RiskResidual risk possibility occurrence
RiskResidual risk possibility occurrence
RiskResidual risk possibility occurrence
RiskResidual risk possibility occurrence
5.1.7 the project P that numbering is i in the ω groupi ωRecognize the enthusiasm of risk
Note：A, b, c, d item data are generally in aerospace project Main Stage node, including product design, manufacture, assembling, survey
Examination, experiment, transport, filling, transmitting etc. carry out the renewal of data.
ProjectRecognize risk enthusiasm
ProjectRecognize risk enthusiasm
Then, project team SP2Interior two projectsAndProjectRecognize that risk enthusiasm is slightly higher.
5.2 according to Project Product maturity, project personnel's working experience, project equipment situation, project task section number
According to calculating project potential risk penalty coefficient；
5.2.1 the product maturity of unit is included according to Project ProductCalculate Project Product maturity Wherein σjDetermined, typically taken by whether unit is equipped with the design such as redundancy details
σj=1.
Take σj=1, calculate projectAndProduct maturity.
ProjectProduct maturity
ProjectProduct maturity
5.2.2 according to project personnel's working experience data, project personnel's experience level is calculated
Wherein
Calculating projectAndProject personnel's experience level.
ProjectProject personnel's experience level
ProjectProject personnel's experience level
5.2.3 according to project equipment situation data, project new equipment service condition is calculated
Calculating projectAndNew equipment service condition.
ProjectNew equipment service condition
ProjectNew equipment service condition
5.2.4 according to project task cross-sectional data, project new task situation TMT is calculatedi ω=1-UMTi ω/MTi ω。
Calculating projectAndProject new task situation.
ProjectNew task situation
ProjectNew task situation
5.2.5 project potential risk penalty coefficient is calculated
Calculating projectAndPotential risk penalty coefficient.
ProjectPotential risk penalty coefficient
ProjectPotential risk penalty coefficient
5.3 overall merit project risk levels
5.3.1 according to residual risk consequence seriousness and residual risk possibility occurrence, remaining wind is calculated according to table 3
Dangerous integrated level
ProjectThere are three risksIts residual risk integrated level is respectively：
RiskResidual risk integrated level
RiskResidual risk integrated level
RiskNot yet close, it is impossible to assess residual risk integrated level.
ProjectThere are four risksIts residual risk integrated level is respectively：
RiskResidual risk integrated level
RiskResidual risk integrated level
RiskResidual risk integrated level
RiskResidual risk integrated level
5.3.2 the project of calculating Pi ωEach integrated level residual risk quantity
ProjectEach integrated level risk amount of residual risk is
ProjectEach integrated level risk amount of residual risk is
5.3.3, residual risk integrated level weight is set
5.3.4 the project of calculating Pi ωResidual risk level
Calculating projectAndResidual risk level.
ProjectResidual risk level
ProjectResidual risk level
5.3.5 use the qualitative item compared integrated risk level of radar map, wherein radar map dimension include Project Product into
Ripe degreeProject personnel's experience levelProject new equipment service conditionProject new task situation TMTi ω、
The inverse of project residual risk levelIndices are higher, represent that project overall risk level is lower.
Drafting projectAndOverall risk level radar figure is shown in accompanying drawing 2.Note：Each dimension is entered in radar map drawing process
Normalized is gone, red line represents projectBlue line represents project
5.3.6 potential risk penalty coefficient is used, overall merit project risk quantization level is calculated
Index dimensionless, for same group project,Higher, its overall risk level is higher.
Calculating projectAndOverall risk level.
ProjectOverall risk level
ProjectOverall risk level
ProjectOverall risk level is higher.
Note 1：Specific implementation step of the present invention provides example chronomere for day, in actual applications, can be according to demand
Be set as the moon, day, when, grade.
Note 2：The example that specific implementation step of the present invention is provided, is merely illustrative of the technical solution of the present invention and unrestricted,
Although the present invention is described in detail these samples, it will be understood by those of skill in the art that can be to skill of the invention
Art scheme is modified or equivalent substitution, without departing from the spirit and scope of technical solution of the present invention.
Claims (6)
1. a kind of aerospace project Risk Comprehensive Evaluation method that decision making-oriented is supported, it is characterised in that：
Step one：Project is carried out in groups；The similitude between aerospace project is recognized, similar aerospace project is classified as one group,
Think to be included into same group and be only included into its Risk Comprehensive Evaluation result with the aerospace project of group and can directly be compared；
Step 2：Renewal speed to project risk information carries out evaluation；The renewal speed of project risk information is used for judging list
Whether individual risk is by conscientious concern and disposal, the risk blocked during identification management, and these risks are either due to disposal
Difficulty is larger, or passes into silence, and its information is long-term without renewal；
Step 3：Project risk disposal efficiency is carried out and evaluated；Risk disposal efficiency is used for judging the efficiency of project risk disposal,
Efficiency including risk in project is judged, the efficiency judge for having risk between same group of project again；
Step 4：Enthusiasm to project risk identification carries out evaluation；The enthusiasm of project risk identification be used for project whether
Actively recognize, report risk to be judged；
Step 5：Project risk level is carried out and evaluated；It is that height is low to project overall risk level that project risk level, which is used for,
Judged.
2. the aerospace project Risk Comprehensive Evaluation method that a kind of decision making-oriented according to claim 1 is supported, its feature exists
In：The similitude between aerospace project is recognized described in step one, similar aerospace project is classified as one group, process is implemented such as
Under：(1) project essential characteristic data, including product type, the project cycle, project funds, project personnel's scale data are obtained；
(2) similarity determination threshold value in groups is set；(3) project essential characteristic data are based on, aerospace project similitude is calculated, judged similar
Property project in threshold value be same group.
3. the aerospace project Risk Comprehensive Evaluation method that a kind of decision making-oriented according to claim 1 is supported, its feature exists
In：Evaluation is carried out to the renewal speed of project risk information described in step 2, it is as follows that it implements process：(1) project is obtained
And its with group project risk management data, including each renewal time of risk information；(2) between the calculation risk information updating time
Every；(3) each risk is directed to, the last information updating time interval of the risk and historical information renewal time interval is compared,
The last information updating speed of single risk is evaluated on longitudinal direction；(4) it is risky for institute, compare each risk the last time letter
Cease and the last information updating speed of single risk is evaluated in renewal time interval, transverse direction；(5) renewal speed decision threshold is set
Value；(6) comprehensive longitudinal evaluation conclusion and lateral appraisement conclusion, according to renewal speed decision threshold, identification information updates slower
Risk.
4. the aerospace project Risk Comprehensive Evaluation method that a kind of decision making-oriented according to claim 1 is supported, its feature exists
In：Project risk disposal efficiency is carried out described in step 3 and evaluated, it is as follows that it implements process：(1) project is obtained and its same
Group project risk management data, including stage residing for risk, refer to reported, recognized, having made a plan, implementing plan, closing,
Each stage duration of risk；(2) assay risk identification confirms efficiency；(3) assay planning replying risk formulates efficiency；
(4) assay planning replying risk confirms efficiency；(5) assay implementing plan efficiency；(6) analysis residual risk confirms effect
Rate；(7) assessment item risk integrative disposal efficiency.
5. the aerospace project Risk Comprehensive Evaluation method that a kind of decision making-oriented according to claim 1 is supported, its feature exists
In：The enthusiasm that project risk identification works is carried out described in step 4 and evaluated, it is as follows that it implements process：(1) item is obtained
Mesh and its with group project risk management data, including project process, confirm risk schedule seriousness, confirm risk occur can
Can property, risk identification time point；(2) calculation risk integrated level；(3) calculate with group project relative risk identification relative active
Property；(4) enthusiasm of overall merit item recognition risk.
6. the aerospace project Risk Comprehensive Evaluation method that a kind of decision making-oriented according to claim 1 is supported, its feature exists
In：Project risk level is carried out described in step 5 and evaluated, it is as follows that it implements process：(1) project risk management number is obtained
According to, including Project Product include the product maturity of unit, project personnel's working experience data, project equipment situation data,
Project task cross-sectional data, residual risk consequence seriousness, residual risk possibility occurrence, the enthusiasm of item recognition risk；
(2) according to Project Product maturity, project personnel's working experience, project equipment situation, project task cross-sectional data, project is calculated
Potential risk penalty coefficient；(3) overall merit project risk level.
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