CN106842367A - A kind of power network typhoon method for prewarning risk - Google Patents
A kind of power network typhoon method for prewarning risk Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
Transmission line of electricity, particularly overhead transmission line power supply capacity are big, and distributed point is more, it is wide, open air is chronically exposed to, easily by Effect of Natural Disaster, once power-off, not only can cause heavy losses, and directly influence the production and construction of country and the orders of life of the people to electric power enterprise.The present invention relates to weather warning field, specifically a kind of power network typhoon method for prewarning risk.The power network typhoon method for prewarning risk that the present invention is provided, establish power network typhoon Warning System, according to typhoon fact, forecast information, provide risk circuit, shaft tower information and corresponding advanced warning grade that typhoon influence is received in estimation range, analysis means and the decision support of science are provided for operation of power networks, for power network quality supply and resist typhoon disaster and provide advanced technical guarantee.
Description
Technical field
The present invention relates to weather warning field, specifically a kind of power network typhoon method for prewarning risk.
Background technology
Transmission line of electricity, particularly overhead transmission line power supply capacity are big, and distributed point is more, wide, are chronically exposed to open air, easily
By Effect of Natural Disaster, once power-off, not only can cause heavy losses, and directly influence the production of country to electric power enterprise
Build the orders of life with the people.Especially in recent years, the continuous improvement with society to need for electricity, transmission and distribution network scale will
Fast Construction develops and extends through complicated landform and the transmission line of electricity in adverse weather condition area also will be increasing, and this will give
Operation power department brings extremely stern challenge and test, the shadow how effectively natural calamity such as pre- typhoon protection is caused to power network
Ring, successfully control large-scale power network, it is ensured that its safe operation, be the work mesh that power grid operation personnel are continually striving to and explore
Mark.The present invention proposes a kind of power network typhoon method for prewarning risk, by being calculated the early warning result of typhoon risk, and devises
Auto-correction method, improves the accuracy of early warning and the portability of system.
The content of the invention
In order to solve the above-mentioned technical problem, the present invention proposes a kind of power network typhoon method for prewarning risk, comprises the following steps：
（1）When typhoon crosses ocean warning line, system starts, meteorological observatory's observation station provides live Typhoon Information and forecast
Typhoon Information；
（2）By region grid division longitude and latitude, and the line information that will be included in the latitude and longitude information and grid of grid
Input system database；
（3）Region random time t1 moment typhoon forecast data are done with following treatment：According to O (x, y), R10, v and Ot1
(xt1,yt1)、R10 t1、vt1Determine the center of typhoon position O after ttLongitude and latitude（xt,yt), and determine ten grades of the typhoon of t
Solar or lunar halo radius R10 tWith typhoon wind speed vt：
；（1）
；（2）
；（3）
；（4）
；（5）
Wherein O (x, y) is the longitude and latitude of center of typhoon, and x is longitude, and y is latitude value；R10It is typhoon force 10 wind circle radius；v
It is center of typhoon wind speed；Ot1(xt1,yt1) be t1 moment center of typhoons longitude and latitude, xt1It is the longitude at t1 moment, yt1It is t1
The latitude value at moment；R10 t1It is t1 moment typhoon force 10 wind circle radiuses；vt1It is t1 moment typhoon wind speed；
（4）Judge all grid element center points comprising circuit to center of typhoon point OtApart from s and R10 tBetween magnitude relationship：
S ＞ R10 t, fault-free risk；
S≤R10 t, faulty risk；（6）
（5）Assuming that certain network is in t2-t3It is impacted grid in time period, and it be T to set the future position moment, and one time of consideration
It is spaced nargin t0, then part of path in the grid impacted time period is：
T+t2-t0—T+t3+t0；(7)
（6）The prediction of wind speed at the corresponding impacted grid element center of each t is calculated with linear interpolation method, and using it as in it
Containing the prediction of wind speed v that will be born after circuit prediction ty:
If a certain its central point of impacted grid is A, the grid element center point to center of typhoon OtDistance be s, i.e. s=| AOt|, A
Wind speed at point is the prediction of wind speed v born after the part of path t that the grid is includedy, A points institute is obtained using linear interpolation method
The prediction of wind speed v for bearingyFor：
（8）
Wherein, vc=24.5m/s；
（7）System carries out the Back ground Information correction of model, i.e., using the power network Back ground Information application form in prewarning area to design
Wind speed is targetedly corrected；
By the Back ground Information application form input system database of circuit, calculated by following principle further according to information above and judge wind speed
Value vp：
If without draught exclusion device, windage yaw tripping times are 3 times or more, and it is 3 times or more to return number with tower, and load class is one
Level, then by design wind speed value v0Reduce 5% conduct and judge wind speed vp；
If there is draught exclusion device, windage yaw tripping times are 1-2 times, and it is 2 times to return number with tower, and load class is two grades, keeps design wind
Fast value v0Constant conduct judges wind speed vp；
If there is draught exclusion device, windage yaw tripping times are 0 time, and it is 1 time to return number with tower, and load class is three-level, then by design wind speed
Value v0Increase by 5% conduct and judge wind speed vp；
（8）Result of calculation is stored in database, if region has excessive risk circuit, by the correlation letter of the transmission line of electricity
Breath is displayed in typhoon early warning list, and provides corresponding advanced warning grade.
Further, the step（1）Middle ocean surveillance line is ocean 24h warning lines.
Further, the step（1）In live Typhoon Information and forecast Typhoon Information every 3h update once.
Further, the step（2）Described in region 0.01 ° * 0.01 ° of grid is divided into by longitude, latitude.
Further, the step（3）The middle typhoon force 10 wind circle radius R that t is determined according to linear interpolation method10 tAnd platform
Wind wind speed vt。
Further, the step（3）In at interval of step-length be t0, t=nt0, wherein n=1,2 ..., m, mt0≤t1。
Further, step（5）The partiting step of advanced warning grade：According to each part of path prediction of wind speed value vyWith this section of circuit
Judge air speed value vpComparative result, determine the advanced warning grade of the impacted part of path of correspondence under each t：
Work as 0.7vp≤vy＜ 0.9vp, then advanced warning grade beLevel early warning；
Work as 0.9vp≤vy＜ 1.1vp, then advanced warning grade beLevel early warning；
Work as 1.1vp≤vy＜ 1.3vp, then advanced warning grade beLevel early warning；
Work as 1.3vp≤vy＜ 1.5vp, then advanced warning grade beLevel early warning；
Work as vy≥1.5vp, then advanced warning grade beLevel early warning.
Further, the step（7）Described in the wind-force size that is carried in unit length by circuit of load；It is described negative
Lotus rank returns number as basis for estimation using windage yaw tripping times and with tower.
Compared with prior art, the beneficial effects of the present invention are：The power network typhoon method for prewarning risk that the present invention is provided,
Power network typhoon Warning System is established, according to typhoon fact, forecast information, risk of the estimation range by typhoon influence is provided
Circuit, shaft tower information and corresponding advanced warning grade, analysis means and the decision support of science are provided for operation of power networks, are power network
Quality supply and resist typhoon disaster there is provided advanced technical guarantee.
Specific embodiment
Technical scheme for a better understanding of the present invention, makees further detailed to the present invention with reference to preferred embodiment
Describe in detail bright：
A kind of power network typhoon method for prewarning risk, comprises the following steps：
1）Preparation：When typhoon crosses ocean 24h warning lines, system starts, meteorological observatory's observation station provides live platform
Wind information and forecast Typhoon Information, the data update once every 3h；Region is divided into 0.01 ° * 0.01 ° of grid,
And the line information input system database that will be included in the latitude and longitude information and grid of grid；
2) risk sets of lines determines：Typhoon forecast data are done with following treatment, determines that this is interregional every receiving typhoon ten after the t1 moment
The risk sets of lines and its influence time section of level solar or lunar halo influence, for convenience of explanation, to future position（There is t1 hours typhoon forecast
Actual moment point）Center of typhoon position with its force 10 wind circle radius R10Circle is done, to the center of typhoon after prediction t1 hour
Put OtThe force 10 wind circle radius R predicted with it10 tCircle is done, finally makees granddad's line of two circles：
According to O (x, y), R10, v and Ot1(xt1,yt1)、R10 t1、vt1(it is t at interval of step-length after determining t0) typhoon in
Center of typhoon position O after the t of heart positiontLongitude and latitude（xt,yt), and ten grades of the typhoon of t is determined according to linear interpolation method
Solar or lunar halo radius R10 tWith typhoon wind speed vt（t=nt0（n=1,2,…,m,mt0≤t1））:
；（1）
；（2）
；（3）
；（4）
；（5）
Judgement includes all grid element center points of circuit to an individual center of typhoon point OtApart from s and R10 tBetween magnitude relationship：
S ＞ R10 t, fault-free risk；
S≤R10 t, faulty risk.（6）
Assuming that certain network is in t2-t3It is impacted grid in time period, and it be T to set the future position moment, and one time of consideration
Interval nargin, then the impacted time period of the part of path in the grid be：
T+t2-t0—T+t3+t0；(7)
3）Prediction of wind speed is calculated：The prediction wind at the corresponding impacted grid element center of each t is calculated using linear interpolation method again
Speed, and using it as its include circuit prediction t after the prediction of wind speed v that will beary：
If a certain impacted grid, its central point is A, the grid element center point to center of typhoon OtDistance be s, obtain s=| AOt
|, it is possible to think the prediction of wind speed v born after the part of path t that as grid is included of the wind speed at A pointsy, using line
Property interpolation method obtains the prediction of wind speed that A points are born：
（8）
Wherein, vc=v10=24.5m/s；
4）The Back ground Information correction of model:In order to improve the accuracy rate of early warning, system is using the power network basis letter in prewarning area
Breath application form is targetedly corrected as shown in the table to design wind speed：
The typhoon Risk-warning Back ground Information application form of table 1
Herein it should be noted that the size of the wind-force that load of the present invention refers to circuit to be born in unit length,
The load class is to return number as basis for estimation using windage yaw tripping times and with tower.
By the Back ground Information application form input system database of circuit, calculated by following principle further according to information above and judged
Air speed value vp：
If " A ", then by design wind speed value v0Reduce 5% conduct and judge wind speed vp；
If " B ", design wind speed value v is kept0Constant conduct judges wind speed vp；
If " C ", then by design wind speed value v0Increase by 5% conduct and judge wind speed vp。
5) advanced warning grade is divided：After being processed more than, you can according to each part of path prediction of wind speed value vyWith this section of circuit
Judgement wind quality vpComparative result, determine the advanced warning grade of the impacted part of path of correspondence under each t：
The advanced warning grade decision table of table 2
6）Typhoon disaster early warning information shows：Result of calculation is stored in database, if there is excessive risk circuit in region,
The relevant information of the transmission line of electricity is included in typhoon early warning list, and provides corresponding advanced warning grade.
Embodiment one
A kind of power network typhoon method for prewarning risk, comprises the following steps：
1）Preparation：When typhoon crosses ocean 24h warning lines, system starts, meteorological observatory's observation station provides live platform
Wind information and forecast Typhoon Information, the data update once every 3h；
Region is divided into 0.01 ° * 0.01 ° of grid, and the line that will be included in the latitude and longitude information and grid of grid
Road Message Entry System database.
2) risk sets of lines determines：Typhoon forecast data are done with following treatment, determines that this is interregional every receiving typhoon ten after 24h
The risk sets of lines and its influence time section of level solar or lunar halo influence, for convenience of explanation, to future position（There is 24h hours typhoon pre-
The actual moment point surveyed）Center of typhoon position with its force 10 wind circle radius R10Circle is done, to the center of typhoon position after prediction 24h
OtThe force 10 wind circle radius R predicted with it10 tCircle is done, finally makees granddad's line of two circles：
According to O (x, y), R10, v and O24h(x24h,y24h)、R10 24h、v24h(it is t at interval of step-length after determining t0) platform
Center of typhoon position O after the t of wind centertLongitude and latitude（xt,yt), and the typhoon of t is determined according to linear interpolation method
Force 10 wind circle radius R10 tWith typhoon wind speed vt（t=nt0（n=1,2,…,m,mt0≤t1））：
；（9）
；（10）
；（11）
；（12）
；（13）
Judgement includes all grid element center points of circuit to an individual center of typhoon point OtApart from s and R10 tBetween magnitude relationship：
S ＞ R10 t, fault-free risk；
S≤R10 t, faulty risk.（14）
Assuming that certain network is in t2-t3It is impacted grid in time period, and it be T to set the future position moment, and one time of consideration
Interval nargin, then the impacted time period of the part of path in the grid be：
T+t2-t0—T+t3+t0；(15)
3）Prediction of wind speed is calculated：The prediction wind at the corresponding impacted grid element center of each t is calculated using linear interpolation method again
Speed, and using it as its include circuit prediction t after the prediction of wind speed v that will beary：
If a certain impacted grid, its central point is A, the grid element center point to center of typhoon OtDistance be s, obtain s=| AOt
|, it is possible to think the prediction of wind speed v born after the part of path t that as grid is included of the wind speed at A pointsy, using line
Property interpolation method obtains the prediction of wind speed that A points are born：
（16）
Wherein, vc=v10=24.5m/s；
4）The Back ground Information correction of model：In order to improve the accuracy rate of early warning, system is using the power network basis letter in prewarning area
Breath application form is targetedly corrected as shown in the table to design wind speed：
The typhoon Risk-warning Back ground Information application form of table 3
By the Back ground Information application form input system database of circuit, calculated by following principle further according to information above and judge wind speed
Value vp：
If " A ", then by design wind speed value v0Reduce 5% conduct and judge wind speed vp；
If " B ", design wind speed value v is kept0Constant conduct judges wind speed vp；
If " C ", then by design wind speed value v0Increase by 5% conduct and judge wind speed vp。
5) advanced warning grade is divided：After being processed more than, you can according to each part of path prediction of wind speed value vyWith this section of circuit
Judgement wind quality vpComparative result, determine the advanced warning grade of the impacted part of path of correspondence under each t：
The advanced warning grade decision table of table 4
6）Typhoon disaster early warning information shows：Result of calculation is stored in database, if there is excessive risk circuit in region,
The relevant information of the transmission line of electricity is included in typhoon early warning list, and provides corresponding advanced warning grade.
Embodiment two
A kind of power network typhoon method for prewarning risk, comprises the following steps：
1）Preparation：When typhoon crosses ocean 24h warning lines, system starts, meteorological observatory's observation station provides live platform
Wind information and forecast Typhoon Information, the data update once every 3h；
Region is divided into 0.01 ° * 0.01 ° of grid, and the line that will be included in the latitude and longitude information and grid of grid
Road Message Entry System database.
2) risk sets of lines determines：Typhoon forecast data are done with following treatment, determines that this is interregional every receiving typhoon ten after 48h
The risk sets of lines and its influence time section of level solar or lunar halo influence, for convenience of explanation, to future position（There is 48h hours typhoon pre-
The actual moment point surveyed）Center of typhoon position with its force 10 wind circle radius R10Circle is done, to the center of typhoon position after prediction 48h
OtThe force 10 wind circle radius R predicted with it10 tCircle is done, finally makees granddad's line of two circles：
According to O (x, y), R10, v and O48h(x48h,y48h)、R10 48h、v48h(it is t at interval of step-length after determining t0) platform
Center of typhoon position O after the t of wind centertLongitude and latitude（xt,yt), and the typhoon of t is determined according to linear interpolation method
Force 10 wind circle radius R10 tWith typhoon wind speed vt（t=nt0（n=1,2,…,m,mt0≤t1））：
；（17）
；（18）
；（19）
；（20）
；（21）
Judgement includes all grid element center points of circuit to an individual center of typhoon point OtApart from s and R10 tBetween magnitude relationship：
S ＞ R10 t, fault-free risk；
S≤R10 t, faulty risk.（22）
Assuming that certain network is in t2-t3It is impacted grid in time period, and it be T to set the future position moment, and one time of consideration
Interval nargin, then the impacted time period of the part of path in the grid be：
T+t2-t0—T+t3+t0；(23)
3）Prediction of wind speed is calculated：The prediction wind at the corresponding impacted grid element center of each t is calculated using linear interpolation method again
Speed, and using it as its include circuit prediction t after the prediction of wind speed v that will beary:
If a certain impacted grid, its central point is A, the grid element center point to center of typhoon OtDistance be s, obtain s=| AOt
|, it is possible to think the prediction of wind speed v born after the part of path t that as grid is included of the wind speed at A pointsy, using line
Property interpolation method obtains the prediction of wind speed that A points are born：
（24）
Wherein, vc=v10=24.5m/s；
4）The Back ground Information correction of model:In order to improve the accuracy rate of early warning, system is using the power network basis letter in prewarning area
Breath application form is targetedly corrected as shown in the table to design wind speed：
The typhoon Risk-warning Back ground Information application form of table 5
By the Back ground Information application form input system database of circuit, calculated by following principle further according to information above and judge wind speed
Value vp：
If " A ", then by design wind speed value v0Reduce 5% conduct and judge wind speed vp；
If " B ", design wind speed value v is kept0Constant conduct judges wind speed vp；
If " C ", then by design wind speed value v0Increase by 5% conduct and judge wind speed vp。
5) advanced warning grade is divided：After being processed more than, you can according to each part of path prediction of wind speed value vyWith this section of circuit
Judgement wind quality vpComparative result, determine the advanced warning grade of the impacted part of path of correspondence under each t：
The advanced warning grade decision table of table 6
6）Typhoon disaster early warning information shows：Result of calculation is stored in database, if there is excessive risk circuit in region,
The relevant information of the transmission line of electricity is included in typhoon early warning list, and provides corresponding advanced warning grade.
The present invention is not limited to above-described specific embodiment, the foregoing is only preferable case study on implementation of the invention
, it is not intended to limit the invention, all any modifications made within the spirit and principles in the present invention, equivalent and change
Enter, should be included within the scope of the present invention.
Claims (8)
1. a kind of power network typhoon method for prewarning risk, it is characterised in that comprise the following steps：
（1）When typhoon crosses ocean warning line, system starts, meteorological observatory's observation station provides live Typhoon Information and forecast
Typhoon Information；
（2）By region grid division longitude and latitude, and the line information that will be included in the latitude and longitude information and grid of grid
Input system database；
（3）Region random time t1 moment typhoon forecast data are done with following treatment：According to O (x, y), R10, v and Ot1
(xt1,yt1)、R10 t1、vt1Determine the center of typhoon position O after ttLongitude and latitude（xt,yt), and determine ten grades of the typhoon of t
Solar or lunar halo radius R10 tWith typhoon wind speed vt：
；(1)
；(2)
；(3)
；(4)
；(5)
Wherein O (x, y) is the longitude and latitude of center of typhoon, and x is longitude, and y is latitude value；R10It is typhoon force 10 wind circle radius；V is
Center of typhoon wind speed；Ot1(xt1,yt1) be t1 moment center of typhoons longitude and latitude, xt1It is the longitude at t1 moment, yt1When being t1
The latitude value at quarter；R10 t1It is t1 moment typhoon force 10 wind circle radiuses；vt1It is t1 moment typhoon wind speed；
（4）Judge all grid element center points comprising circuit to center of typhoon point OtApart from s and R10 tBetween magnitude relationship：
S ＞ R10 t, fault-free risk；
S≤R10 t, faulty risk；(6)
（5）Assuming that certain network is in t2-t3It is impacted grid in time period, and it be T to set the future position moment, and one time of consideration
It is spaced nargin t0, then part of path in the grid impacted time period is：
T+t2-t0—T+t3+t0；(7)
（6）The prediction of wind speed at the corresponding impacted grid element center of each t is calculated with linear interpolation method, and using it as in it
Containing the prediction of wind speed v that will be born after circuit prediction ty：
If a certain its central point of impacted grid is A, the grid element center point to center of typhoon OtDistance be s, i.e. s=| AOt|, A
Wind speed at point is the prediction of wind speed v born after the part of path t that the grid is includedy, A points institute is obtained using linear interpolation method
The prediction of wind speed v for bearingyFor：
（8）
Wherein, vc=24.5m/s；
（7）System carries out the Back ground Information correction of model, i.e., using the power network Back ground Information application form in prewarning area to design
Wind speed is targetedly corrected；
By the Back ground Information application form input system database of circuit, calculated by following principle further according to information above and judge wind speed
Value vp：
If without draught exclusion device, windage yaw tripping times are 3 times or more, and it is 3 times or more to return number with tower, and load class is one
Level, then by design wind speed value v0Reduce 5% conduct and judge wind speed vp；
If there is draught exclusion device, windage yaw tripping times are 1-2 times, and it is 2 times to return number with tower, and load class is two grades, keeps design wind
Fast value v0Constant conduct judges wind speed vp；
If there is draught exclusion device, windage yaw tripping times are 0 time, and it is 1 time to return number with tower, and load class is three-level, then by design wind speed
Value v0Increase by 5% conduct and judge wind speed vp；
（8）Result of calculation is stored in database, if region has excessive risk circuit, by the correlation letter of the transmission line of electricity
Breath is displayed in typhoon early warning list, and provides corresponding advanced warning grade.
2. a kind of power network typhoon method for prewarning risk according to claim 1, it is characterised in that：The step（1）Middle sea
Foreign warning line is ocean 24h warning lines.
3. a kind of power network typhoon method for prewarning risk according to claim 1, it is characterised in that：The step（1）In
Live Typhoon Information and forecast Typhoon Information update once every 3h.
4. a kind of power network typhoon method for prewarning risk according to claim 1, it is characterised in that：The step（2）Middle institute
State the grid that region is divided into 0.01 ° * 0.01 ° by longitude, latitude.
5. a kind of power network typhoon method for prewarning risk according to claim 1, it is characterised in that：The step（3）Middle
The typhoon force 10 wind circle radius R of t is determined according to linear interpolation method10 tWith typhoon wind speed vt。
6. power network typhoon method for prewarning risk according to claim 1, it is characterised in that：The step（3）In at interval of
Step-length is t0, t=nt0, wherein n=1,2 ..., m, mt0≤t1。
7. power network typhoon method for prewarning risk according to claim 1, it is characterised in that：Step（5）Advanced warning grade draw
Step by step：According to each part of path prediction of wind speed value vyWith this section of judgement air speed value v of circuitpComparative result, determine each t
The advanced warning grade of the lower impacted part of path of correspondence：
Work as 0.7vp≤vy＜ 0.9vp, then advanced warning grade beLevel early warning；
Work as 0.9vp≤vy＜ 1.1vp, then advanced warning grade beLevel early warning；
Work as 1.1vp≤vy＜ 1.3vp, then advanced warning grade beLevel early warning；
Work as 1.3vp≤vy＜ 1.5vp, then advanced warning grade beLevel early warning；
Work as vy≥1.5vp, then advanced warning grade beLevel early warning.
8. power network typhoon method for prewarning risk according to claim 1, it is characterised in that：The step（7）Described in bear
The wind-force size that lotus is carried by circuit in unit length；The load class using windage yaw tripping times and with tower return number as
Basis for estimation.
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| CN108198090A (en) * | 2017-12-18 | 2018-06-22 | 广西电网有限责任公司电力科学研究院 | A kind of power grid power transmission and distribution facility Typhoon Monitoring points distributing method |
| CN109063894A (en) * | 2018-06-26 | 2018-12-21 | 广西电网有限责任公司电力科学研究院 | A kind of typhoon tracks forecast display system for power grid |
| CN111610579A (en) * | 2020-04-28 | 2020-09-01 | 国网江苏省电力有限公司电力科学研究院 | Power transmission line early warning method for typical microtopography |
| CN113191535A (en) * | 2021-04-14 | 2021-07-30 | 国网河南省电力公司电力科学研究院 | Design wind speed correction method in gale disaster early warning |
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| CN113222423B (en) * | 2021-05-19 | 2023-01-20 | 南方电网数字电网研究院有限公司 | Typhoon monitoring method for power grid equipment |
| CN113487139A (en) * | 2021-06-11 | 2021-10-08 | 中国水产科学研究院东海水产研究所 | Regional typhoon risk assessment method based on spatial position |
| CN113487139B (en) * | 2021-06-11 | 2022-09-16 | 中国水产科学研究院东海水产研究所 | Regional typhoon risk assessment method based on spatial position |
| CN114114466A (en) * | 2021-08-13 | 2022-03-01 | 广东省气象公共服务中心(广东气象影视宣传中心) | Intelligent meteorological safety guard system |
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