CN106570627B - Method for calculating crop irrigation water demand under future climate conditions - Google Patents
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Abstract
The invention discloses a method for calculating the water demand of crops under future climatic conditions, which is characterized in that the future climatic mode data are collected and corrected based on the historical actually-measured meteorological data, so that the method is suitable for evaluating the influence of climatic change of area or site scale; according to growth period data and a temperature accumulation formula of a crop field test, constructing a response model of crop seeding date and crop growth period length to temperature; calculating the daily water demand of the crops by utilizing a Peneman formula in combination with a single crop coefficient method and a soil water stress coefficient; and calculating the daily irrigation water requirement of the crops based on the crop irrigation system and the water balance principle. Aiming at the influence of climate change on agricultural water resource safety, the invention considers the change of crop seeding date and growth period caused by global warming, so that a water resource planning and management department can more accurately predict the future agricultural water resource utilization amount in the region, thereby providing a more reasonable water resource planning scheme.
Description
Technical Field
The invention relates to a method for calculating the water demand of crop irrigation under the future climatic conditions, and belongs to the field of agricultural irrigation.
Background
Climate change, which is mainly characterized by temperature rise and precipitation fluctuation, has already caused a significant impact on water demand for agricultural irrigation. The water demand for crop irrigation is an important component of agricultural water, the agricultural water is one of important links of hydrologic cycle, and climate changes such as temperature rise, precipitation abnormality and frequent disasters directly influence the hydrologic cycle process, thereby having great influence on the agricultural water pattern. Therefore, the prediction of the crop irrigation water demand under the future climatic conditions has great significance for guaranteeing agricultural production and saving water resources. Meanwhile, theoretical support is provided for agricultural safety and water resource utilization of China under the influence of future climate change, and the water resource planning and management department can conveniently and accurately estimate the future agricultural water resource utilization amount of the region, so that a more reasonable water resource planning scheme is provided.
At present, the calculation method of the crop irrigation water demand mainly adopts historical meteorological data and atmospheric circulation modes (GCMs) in combination with a crop coefficient method and a water balance principle or in combination with a crop model to deduce the crop irrigation water demand day by day. However, different irrigation modes correspond to different irrigation systems, and different upper and lower irrigation limits exist in different growth periods. In addition, the rising of the air temperature not only affects the evapotranspiration of the crops, but also changes the initial planting date and the growth period length of the crops.
Therefore, water balance calculations based on water demand, effective rainfall and average leakage do not fully reflect the rice irrigation process. How to more accurately estimate the influence of climate change on the initial planting date, the growth period and the irrigation water demand of crops is the urgent need of agricultural planting planning and future water resource planning, and is also a key problem solved by the technology.
Disclosure of Invention
The invention aims to solve the technical problem of providing a method for calculating the irrigation water demand of crops under the future climate condition, constructing an accumulated probability correction method of historical measured meteorological data and GCM climate mode historical period data, and determining the initial planting date and the growth period length of the crops according to the accumulated temperature principle of the corrected future climate mode data. Based on the crop irrigation system combined with the single crop coefficient method and the water balance principle, the crop irrigation water demand under the future climatic conditions is calculated, and the method is used for calculating the crop water demand, the crop irrigation water demand and the growth period, and has reasonability and operability.
The invention adopts the following technical scheme for solving the technical problems:
the invention provides a method for calculating the irrigation water demand of crops under future climatic conditions, which comprises the following steps:
step 2, based on the cumulative probability distribution of the historical actually-measured meteorological data and the cumulative probability distribution of the historical period data in the GCM climatic mode, carrying out deviation correction processing on the future climatic mode data;
step 3, determining the initial planting date of the crops and the equivalent accumulated temperature required by the growth period according to the crop field test data and the accumulated temperature principle;
and 4, calculating the water requirement for crop irrigation based on a crop irrigation system, a Peneman formula and a water balance principle by combining the corrected future climate mode data.
As a further optimization scheme of the invention, the historical measured meteorological data in the step 1 comprises data of precipitation, temperature, radiation, wind speed and water and air pressure day by day for not less than 30 years; the historical period data in the GCM climate mode data completely corresponds to the historical measured weather data.
As a further optimization scheme of the invention, the historical measured meteorological data are extracted according to the month and sequenced in the step 2, and the cumulative probability distribution of the historical measured meteorological data of the corresponding month is generated.
As a further optimization scheme of the invention, historical period data in the GCM climate mode is extracted according to the month and sorted in the step 2, and the cumulative probability distribution of the historical period data in the GCM climate mode of the corresponding month is generated.
As a further optimization scheme of the present invention, a specific method for performing deviation correction processing on future climate pattern data in step 2 is as follows: calculating the probability value of the meteorological factors in the future climate mode data, interpolating values in the cumulative probability distribution curve of the historical actually-measured meteorological data and the cumulative probability distribution curve of the historical period data in the GCM climate mode based on the probability value distribution to find corresponding values, and correcting the future climate mode data by taking the difference value or the ratio of the two corresponding values as an addition or multiplication correction coefficient so as to generate corrected future climate mode data.
As a further optimization scheme of the present invention, step 3 further comprises: determining the initial planting date and the growth period length of the actually measured crop based on the air temperature data of the observed year of the crop experiment and the field experiment data; determining the equivalent accumulated temperature required by the growth and development of the crop by adopting an accumulated temperature formula; and determining a future crop growth period start date and a crop growth period length based on the temperature data in the corrected future climate pattern data.
As a further optimization scheme of the present invention, step 4 further comprises: firstly, calculating the evapotranspiration amount in the growth and development period of crops by using a Peneman formula; then, combining a single crop coefficient method and a soil water stress coefficient, calculating the water demand of crops; and finally, calculating the water demand of the crops by utilizing a crop irrigation system and combining a field water balance principle.
Compared with the prior art, the invention adopting the technical scheme has the following technical effects: the invention adopts a crop irrigation system. Combining a single crop coefficient method, a temperature accumulation calculation formula and a water quantity balance principle. And calculating the water requirement for crop irrigation under the future condition, and providing theoretical support for agricultural safety and water resource utilization of China under the influence of future climate change.
Drawings
FIG. 1 is a flow chart of future crop irrigation water demand calculations.
FIG. 2 is a schematic diagram of bias correction based on cumulative probability.
FIG. 3 shows the rice transplanting date change.
FIG. 4 shows the rice growth period change.
FIG. 5 shows the variation of water demand for rice irrigation.
Detailed Description
The technical scheme of the invention is further described in detail by combining the drawings and the specific embodiments:
the invention provides a method for calculating the water demand of crops under future climatic conditions, as shown in figure 1, the specific method comprises the following steps:
(1) collecting GCM climate mode data and historical measured weather data of an agricultural weather station; wherein the historical actual measurement meteorological data comprises data of precipitation, temperature, radiation, wind speed and water and air pressure day by day for not less than 30 years; the historical period data in the GCM climate mode data completely corresponds to the historical measured weather data.
(2) And carrying out deviation correction processing on the future GCM data based on the cumulative probability distribution of the historical measured meteorological data and the cumulative probability distribution of the GCM historical period data.
Firstly, extracting a perennial sequence of historical actual measurement meteorological data according to months and sequencing the sequences to generate an accumulative probability distribution function f of a corresponding monthobs(x)＝Pobs(x) Wherein x is a probability value, fobs(x) Corresponding numerical values of the historical measured meteorological data under the probability;
then, extracting data of the historical period data of the GCM climate mode according to different months, and generating a cumulative probability distribution function f of the corresponding monthm-o(x)＝Pm-o(x) Wherein x is a probability value, fm-o(x) A numerical value corresponding to weather data in the historical period of the weather pattern under the probability;
and finally, calculating the probability value of the weather factor in the future weather pattern data, inserting values in the historical actual measurement probability curve and the historical period probability curve of the weather pattern based on the probability value to find corresponding values, and correcting the future weather pattern data by taking the difference (or proportion) of the two corresponding values as a correction coefficient so as to generate corrected future weather pattern data.
xm-p.adjst＝xm-p+fobs(x)-fm-o(x) （a）
Wherein x ism-p.adjstFor the corrected meteorological factor, xm-pTo correct for the pre-meteorological factors, formula a is used for temperature, radiation, water pressure, and formula b is used for precipitation and wind speed.
(3) And determining the initial planting date and the accumulated temperature required by the growth period of the crops according to field test data and an accumulated temperature principle.
The accumulated temperature calculation formula specifically comprises: divide a day into three phases, the first phase rising from the sun (H)n) Moment (H) corresponding to the highest temperaturex) (ii) a The second stage is from the moment corresponding to the highest temperature to the sunset moment (H)o) (ii) a The third stage is from sunset time to the lowest temperature corresponding time (H) of the second dayp). The second stage is a two-stage sinusoidal curve fit and the third stage is a square root function fit.
H0And HnDetermined according to the local latitude and longitude, Hx＝Ho-4，Hp＝Hn+24. Four moments Hn、Hx、Ho、HpThe corresponding temperatures are respectively: lowest temperature (T) of the dayn) Highest temperature on the day (T)x) Temperature at sunset (T)o) The lowest temperature (T) on the following dayp) Wherein T iso＝Tx-0.39(Tx-Tp)
The temperature function calculation formula at each time t in one day is as follows:
wherein α ═ Tx-Tn,R＝Tx-To,
And (4) integrating the formula (3), and summing the three integrated results to obtain the accumulated temperature value of one day.
(4) Calculating the irrigation water demand of crops based on a Peneman formula and a water balance principle, and specifically comprising the following steps of:
firstly, calculating the transpiration amount of a reference crop by using a Peneman formula:
wherein, ET0A mass transpiration for a reference crop (mmd-1); rnNet radiation (MJ m-2 d-1); g is the soil heat flux (MJm-2 d-1); e.g. of the typesIs the average saturated vapor pressure (kPa)) (ii) a T is the average temperature (. degree. C.); u. of2A wind speed at two meters high (ms-1); delta is the saturated water vapor pressure slope (kPa ℃ -1); gamma is a dry-wet constant (kPa ℃ -1); e.g. of the typeaActual water vapor pressure (kPa).
Then, the water demand (ET) of the crops is calculated day by adopting a single crop coefficient method and combining the water stress coefficientci）：
ETci＝KcKsET0i（5）
Wherein, ET0iThe amount of transpiration for the reference crop on day i, mm; kcIs the crop coefficient; ksIs the water stress coefficient.
And finally, determining the water demand for crop irrigation according to a crop irrigation system and by combining a field water balance principle.
Wherein, the water balance formula is as follows:
hi-hi-1＝Ri+Ii-Di-Si-ETci（6）
in the formula: h isi、hi-1The depth of the water layer on the ith day and the ith-1 is mm respectively; ri、Ii、Di、SiThe rainfall, irrigation, drainage and leakage on day i are expressed in mm.
The technical solution of the present invention is further illustrated by the following specific examples:
taking Kunshan station rice irrigation as an example, the invention relates to a method for calculating the water demand of crop irrigation under the future climatic conditions, which comprises the following specific implementation steps:
(1) collecting climate mode data and historical measured meteorological data of future 3 periods (2011-; the future climate mode data in the embodiment is derived from climate mode data in the fifth stage (CMIP 5) of the coupling mode comparison plan, the historical data is from the chinese meteorological data network, and the embodiment adopts four climate scenarios of the BCC-CSM1.1(m) climate mode.
(2) Based on the historical measured meteorological data cumulative probability distribution and the GCM historical period cumulative probability distribution, the future GCM data is subjected to deviation correction processing, and as shown in FIG. 2, the method specifically comprises the following steps:
1) extracting and sequencing the measured meteorological data for many years according to the month to generate the month cumulative probability function fobs(x)＝Pobs(x) Wherein x is a probability value, fobs(x) The measured meteorological data under the probability corresponds to a numerical value;
2) extracting data of the historical period data of the climate mode according to different months and generating a probability cumulative function f of the corresponding monthm-o(x)＝Pm-o(x) Wherein x is a probability value, fm-o(x) A numerical value corresponding to weather data in the historical period of the weather pattern under the probability;
3) calculating the probability value of the meteorological factor in the future meteorological sequence, interpolating values in the actually measured probability curve and the meteorological model historical period probability curve based on the probability value to find corresponding values, and correcting the meteorological factor in the future by taking the difference (or proportion) of the two corresponding values as a correction coefficient so as to generate the corrected meteorological sequence.
xm-p.adjst＝xm-p+fobs(x)-fm-o(x) （a）
Wherein x ism-p.adjstFor the corrected meteorological factor, xm-pTo correct for the pre-meteorological factors, formula a is used for temperature, radiation, water pressure, and formula b is used for precipitation and wind speed.
(3) Determining the initial planting date and the growth period length of crops according to field test data and a temperature accumulation principle; the accumulated temperature formula for calculating the accumulated temperature comprises the following specific steps: divide a day into three phases, the first phase rising from the sun (H)n) Moment (H) corresponding to the highest temperaturex) (ii) a The second stage is from the moment corresponding to the highest temperature to the sunset moment (H)o) (ii) a The third stage is from sunset time to the lowest temperature corresponding time (H) of the second dayp). One and twoThe stage temperature is curve fit with a two-stage sine function and the third stage is fit with a square root function. H0And HnDetermined according to the local latitude and longitude, Hx＝Ho-4，Hp＝Hn+24. Four moments Hn、Hx、Ho、HpThe corresponding temperatures are respectively: lowest temperature (T) of the dayn) Highest temperature on the day (T)x) Temperature at sunset (T)o) The lowest temperature (T) on the following dayp) Wherein T iso＝Tx-0.39(Tx-Tp). The temperature function calculation formula at each moment of the day is as follows:
wherein α ═ Tx-Tn,R＝Tx-To,
And integrating the above formula, and summing the three integrated results to obtain the accumulated temperature value of one day.
According to the method, the equivalent accumulated temperature of the transplanting date of the rice in the research area is 53000 ℃ and the equivalent accumulated temperature of the growing period is 73000 ℃ based on the growing period data of the rice in the Kunshan station 2011, so that the transplanting date and the growing period length of the rice under the future climatic conditions are calculated. The calculation results are shown in fig. 3 and 4.
(4) The method is characterized by calculating the irrigation water demand of crops based on a Peneman formula and a rice irrigation system in combination with a water balance principle, and specifically comprises the following steps:
firstly, calculating the transpiration amount of a reference crop by using a Peneman formula:
wherein, ET0A mass transpiration for a reference crop (mmd-1); rnNet radiation (MJ m-2 d-1); g is the soil heat flux (MJm-2 d-1); e.g. of the typesIs flatSaturated vapor pressure (kPa)); t is the average temperature (. degree. C.); u. of2A wind speed at two meters high (ms-1); delta is the saturated water vapor pressure slope (kPa ℃ -1); gamma is a dry-wet constant (kPa ℃ -1); e.g. of the typeaActual water vapor pressure (kPa).
Then, the crop coefficient method and the water stress coefficient are adopted to calculate the daily water demand (ET) of the cropsci）：
ETci＝KcKsET0i
In the formula: ET0iThe amount of transpiration for the reference crop on day i, mm; kcIs the crop coefficient; ksIs the water stress coefficient. KcThe coefficient is corrected by adopting the coefficient of Kunshan single-season mid-season rice, and is respectively 1.05, 1.2 and 1.0 at the initial stage, the middle stage and the final stage of the growth period.
Different irrigation modes correspond to different irrigation systems, the rice irrigation of the embodiment adopts a control irrigation system, and the control irrigation refers to setting reasonable soil moisture supply in each growth period according to the difference of the sensitivity degree of the rice to moisture in different periods. Except for keeping a water layer of 5-25mm in the green turning period, water layers are not established in other growth stages, only the upper limit of soil moisture control is kept at the saturated water content, and the lower limit is respectively 60% -80% of the saturated water content in different growth periods (wherein, in the calculation process, the negative value of the depth of the water layer is converted into the depth of the water layer by the water content of the soil).
And finally, determining the irrigation water demand of crops according to a field water balance principle, wherein a water balance formula is as follows:
hi-hi-1＝Ri+Ii-Di-Si-ETci（6）
in the formula: h isi、hi-1The depth of the water layer on the ith day and the ith-1 is mm respectively; ri、Ii、Di、SiThe rainfall, irrigation, drainage and leakage on day i are expressed in mm.
The leakage calculation method is as follows:
i. when the water layer exists in the field, the water layer,
Si＝Ki
in the formula: kiTaking the mean value of the actual leakage in mm when water layers exist in the field for the daily average leakage of the rice field under the condition of normal water supply.
When the field has no water layer, estimate as follows:
in the formula: siThe leakage rate of the paddy field on the ith day is mm; k0The saturated hydraulic conductivity is mainly related to the soil texture and is generally 0.1-1.0 m/d, β is an empirical constant and is generally 50-250, the higher the viscosity of the soil, the higher the value, tiD, the time elapsed when the water content of the soil reaches the ith day level from the saturation state; h is the depth of the main root layer of the rice, m. The variation of the water demand for rice irrigation is calculated as shown in fig. 5.
The above description is only an embodiment of the present invention, but the scope of the present invention is not limited thereto, and any person skilled in the art can understand that the modifications or substitutions within the technical scope of the present invention are included in the scope of the present invention, and therefore, the scope of the present invention should be subject to the protection scope of the claims.
Claims (6)
1. A method for calculating the irrigation water demand of crops under the future climatic conditions is characterized by comprising the following specific steps:
step 1, collecting atmospheric circulation mode GCM climate mode data and historical measured weather data of an agricultural weather station;
step 2, based on the cumulative probability distribution of the historical actually-measured meteorological data and the cumulative probability distribution of the historical period data in the GCM climatic mode, carrying out deviation correction processing on the future climatic mode data; the method specifically comprises the following steps: calculating probability value of meteorological factor in future climate mode data, interpolating values in cumulative probability distribution curve of historical actual measurement meteorological data and cumulative probability distribution curve of historical period data in GCM climate mode based on probability value distribution to find corresponding value, and comparing difference value or ratio of two corresponding valuesCorrecting the future climate mode data by taking the value as an addition or multiplication correction coefficient so as to generate corrected future climate mode data; wherein, the meteorological factors of temperature, radiation and water pressure adopt a formula xm-p.adjst＝xm-p+fobs(x)-fm-o(x) Correcting by formula of weather factors of precipitation and wind speed
Correction is made, xm-p.adjstFor the corrected meteorological factor, xm-pTo correct for meteorological factors, where x is a probability value, fobs(x) Is the corresponding value of the actually measured meteorological data under the probability, fm-o(x) A numerical value corresponding to weather data in the historical period of the weather pattern under the probability;
step 3, determining the initial planting date of the crops and the equivalent accumulated temperature required by the growth period according to the crop field test data and the accumulated temperature principle;
and 4, calculating the water requirement for crop irrigation based on a crop irrigation system, a Peneman formula and a water balance principle by combining the corrected future climate mode data.
2. The method of claim 1, wherein the historical measured weather data in step 1 includes data on precipitation, temperature, radiation, wind speed, and water pressure, day by day, for no less than 30 years; the historical period data in the GCM climate mode data completely corresponds to the historical measured weather data.
3. The method of claim 1, wherein the historical measured weather data is extracted and sorted by month in step 2 to generate the cumulative probability distribution of the historical measured weather data for the corresponding month.
4. The method of claim 1, wherein the historical period data in the GCM climate pattern is extracted and sorted by month in step 2 to generate the cumulative probability distribution of the historical period data in the GCM climate pattern for the corresponding month.
5. The method of calculating crop irrigation water demand under future climatic conditions of claim 1, wherein step 3 further comprises: determining the initial planting date and the growth period length of the actually measured crop based on the air temperature data of the observed year of the crop experiment and the field experiment data; determining the equivalent accumulated temperature required by the growth and development of the crop by adopting an accumulated temperature formula; and determining a future crop growth period start date and a crop growth period length based on the temperature data in the corrected future climate pattern data.
6. The method of claim 1, wherein step 4 further comprises: firstly, calculating the evapotranspiration amount in the growth and development period of crops by using a Peneman formula; then, combining a single crop coefficient method and a soil water stress coefficient, calculating the water demand of crops; and finally, calculating the water demand of the crops by utilizing a crop irrigation system and combining a field water balance principle.
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| US9131642B2 (en) * | 2011-05-13 | 2015-09-15 | Hydrobio, Inc. | Method and system to control irrigation across large geographic areas using remote sensing, weather and field level data |
| CN103413035B (en) * | 2013-07-30 | 2017-06-16 | 中国科学院遥感与数字地球研究所 | A kind of method of model for farmland net irrigation water and estimation irrigation water capacity |
| CN103886392A (en) * | 2014-03-26 | 2014-06-25 | 中国农业科学院农田灌溉研究所 | Winter wheat water consumption predicting method based on weather forecast information |
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