CN105740615B - Utilize the method for the mobile phone trajectory track infection sources and prediction disease transmission trend - Google Patents
Utilize the method for the mobile phone trajectory track infection sources and prediction disease transmission trend Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The invention discloses utilize the mobile phone trajectory track infection sources and the method for predicting disease transmission trend, including step：From Disease Control and Prevention Center's person's data that obtain new infections, the person that determines new infections；It obtains before the onset of the new infections person and the mobile phone traffic data in a period of time after the onset and its associated base stations data；The track visual analyzing of new infections person is carried out in GIS platform to the mobile phone traffic data and associated base stations data；High risk zone with analysis disease transmission and crowd, predict disease transmission trend.The present invention can quickly and accurately judge the area and environmental aspect that the infection sources passes through by the mobile phone track combining geographic information system of new infections person, be conducive to determine high risk zone and crowd, take prevention and control measure in time.
Description
Technical field
The present invention relates to the prevention of infectious disease and control field more particularly to a kind of utilization mobile phone trajectory track infection sources and in advance
The method for surveying disease transmission trend.
Background technology
Currently, China is mainly focused on " remedial " measure of emerging infectious disease control and high-risk people to patient
The isolation etc. of group, but some diseases, because the characteristics of spread path, potential people at highest risk is widely distributed, and the pathogeny of infectious disease determines
It is more difficult with the prediction of fashion trend.In the past for the judgement of infectious disease transmission mode, pass through clinical symptoms and epidemiology
Investigation, has tunnel vision, process is complicated, the used time is longer, and is likely to not study result.
GIS-Geographic Information System (GIS) is a kind of specific system, refers to computer under hardware and software support, to entire or portion
The related geographic distribution data divided in earth surface (including atmosphere) space is acquired, stores, managing, operation, analysis, showing
Show and describes and the technological system of aid decision.The object of processing, the management of GIS-Geographic Information System is that a variety of geographical spaces are real
Volume data and its relationship, including space orientation data, graph data, remote sensing image data, attribute data etc., for analyzing and locating
The various phenomenons and process being distributed in certain geographic area are managed, complicated planning, decision and problem of management are solved.
GIS is widely used in the research of multiple fields due to its powerful function, and reaps in abundant.GIS is in foreign countries
Be applied to field of public health very early, in recent years in China field of public health also begin to obtain it is extensive with such as Hangzhou and
The CDC such as Jinan are assembled with GIS for control and prevention of disease.GIS has been applied to pandemic preparedness control, disease surveillance, has defended at present
The many aspects such as raw resource distribution, health need, hygiene health education, community sanitary evaluation, Environmental Monitoring and Assessment simultaneously obtain
Good effect.
ArcGIS (the commercial GIS platforms of U.S. environment system research institute research and development)：ArcGIS product lines are to use
Family provides telescopic, a comprehensive GIS platform.ArcObjects contains a large amount of programmable component, from fine-grained
The object (such as the map object interacted with existing ArcMap documents) of object (such as single geometric object) to coarseness relates to
And face is extremely wide, these objects are that developer is integrated with comprehensive GIS functions.Each ArcGIS built up using ArcObjects
Product all provides the container of an application and development, including desktop GIS (ArcGIS Desktop), Embedded GIS for developer
(ArcGIS Engine) and server-side GIS (ArcGIS Server).
Apriori algorithm is a kind of algorithm of most influential Mining Boolean Association Rules frequent item set.Its core is base
Collect the recursive algorithm of thought in two benches frequency.The correlation rule belongs to one-dimensional, single layer, Boolean Association Rules in classification.At this
In, the item collection that all supports are more than minimum support is known as frequent item set, and referred to as frequency collects.
Currently, China mobile phone user is up to as many as 900,000,000, mobile communication is popularized and modern cell phones location technology
Prosperity collects mobile phone signal for us to analyze useful information, track is visualized, for we using mobile phone signal as
Tool application is positioned in area of infectious disease, the location information of user and the health and fitness information of user are connected, is that infectious disease is pre-
Anti- and control provides a kind of new method.
Invention content
The universal present situation of combined handset communication of the present invention and modern cell phones location technology, using GIS-Geographic Information System to infecting
The propagation of source and infectious disease quickly position and track, and modern cell phones are communicated first Application to the tracking to infectious disease
In control.
The present invention proposes a kind of method using the mobile phone trajectory track infection sources and prediction disease transmission trend, including step
Suddenly：
S1：From Disease Control and Prevention Center's person's data that obtain new infections, determine that the new infections person is the infection sources；
S2：It obtains before the onset of the new infections person and the mobile phone traffic data in a period of time after the onset and its dependency basis
It stands data；
S3：New infections person is carried out in GIS platform to the mobile phone traffic data and associated base stations data
Track visual analyzing；
S4：High risk zone and the crowd for analyzing disease transmission, predict disease transmission trend.
Further, it is one week to two weeks for a period of time described in step S2.
Further, the mobile phone traffic data of new infections person described in step S2 include user trigger traffic time,
User communication business type and ID users；The associated base stations data include and the mobile phone traffic data relevant base station position
Set region recognition number and base station section station location marker number.
Further, GIS platform described in step S3 is ArcGIS Visualization Platforms.
Further, step S3 includes step：Using Apriori algorithm to the mobile phone traffic data and associated base stations
Data carry out the track visual analyzing of new infections person on ArcGIS Visualization Platforms.
Further, step S3 includes step：
S31：Track characteristic extracts, and is pre-processed to mobile phone traffic data and associated base stations data, obtains new infections
The trip feature and its dwell point of person；
S32：Pretreated data are inputted the GIS platform, carry out new infections by visual analyzing
The visual analyzing of person's trip track data.
Closer, step S32 includes the semantization of location data, and the semantization of location data includes step：
S321：The semantization of track data geographic location；
S322：Dwell point is extracted and track semantization.
Further, step S4 includes step：According to the mobile phone track of single new infections person infer its infection time and
Possible plague area and the initial infection sources are learnt in place by the mobile phone track similitude of different new infections persons.
Further, predict that the fashion trend of infectious disease, method are including but not limited to single described in the step S4
Group's method, one kind or combinations thereof in compound population method and microscopic individual method.
The beneficial effects of the present invention are the present invention utilizes the mobile phone trajectory track infection sources and prediction disease transmission trend
Method can quickly and accurately judge what the infection sources passed through by the mobile phone track combining geographic information system of new infections person
Area and environmental aspect are conducive to determine high risk zone and crowd, take prevention and control measure in time.
Description of the drawings
Fig. 1 is flow chart of the method for the present invention.
Specific implementation mode
Following will be combined with the drawings in the embodiments of the present invention, and technical solution in the embodiment of the present invention carries out clear, complete
Site preparation describes, it is clear that described embodiments are only a part of the embodiments of the present invention, instead of all the embodiments.It is based on
Embodiment in the present invention, those of ordinary skill in the art are obtained every other without creative efforts
Embodiment shall fall within the protection scope of the present invention.
Refer to Fig. 1, the present invention using the mobile phone trajectory track infection sources and the method for predicting disease transmission trend, including
Step：
S1：From Disease Control and Prevention Center's person's data that obtain new infections, determine that the new infections person is the infection sources；
S2：Obtain before the onset of the new infections person to mobile phone traffic data in a period of time after the onset and its related
Base station data；
S3：New infections person is carried out in GIS platform to the mobile phone traffic data and associated base stations data
Track visual analyzing；
S4：High risk zone and the crowd for analyzing disease transmission, predict disease transmission trend.
In step s 2, it by the common carrier such as communications such as China Mobile, China Unicom and China Telecom, can get new
Mobile phone traffic data before the onset of sending out the infected and in a period of time such as one week to two weeks after the onset, the hand of the new infections person
Machine traffic data includes time, user communication business type and the ID users that user triggers traffic；The associated base stations data
Including with the relevant base station location region recognition number of the mobile phone traffic data and base station section station location marker number.
In step s3, ArcGIS Visualization Platforms can be used in the GIS platform, and are calculated using Apriori
The track that method carries out the mobile phone traffic data and associated base stations data new infections person on ArcGIS Visualization Platforms can
It is analyzed depending on changing.
Step S3 includes step S31 and step S32.
Step S31：Track characteristic extracts, and is pre-processed to mobile phone traffic data and its associated base stations data, obtains new
Send out the trip feature and its dwell point of the infected.The clustering algorithm of use space and time, to mobile phone traffic data and its correlation
Base station data is pre-processed, and the dwell point for having Special Significance to new infections person can be extracted, resident to be often referred to user and exist
Certain geospatial area stops the region more than certain time, and often there is new infections person in such region special meaning
Justice, so also referred to as point of interest or interest region.
Step S32：Pretreated data are inputted the GIS platform, are newly sent out by visual analyzing
The visual analyzing of the infected's trip track data.By taking ArcGIS visual analyzing platforms as an example, pretreated data are united
One input Access databases unified management, realizes the visual analyzing of new infections person trip track data.Then determined
Semantization (the semantic track of position data：Including people moves reason and mobile approach relevant information), further to excavate user's rail
Mark provides abundant Information base
Wherein, step S32 includes the semantization of location data, and the semantization of location data includes step S321 and step
S322。
Step S321：The semantization of track data geographic location.Semantization is carried out based on POI data geographical location：
From map datum manufacturer, such as Amap, POI keywords are directly obtained by purchase.It selects all in region and infects
The sick infection sources and the related geographical location of propagation model, such as birds trade market, slaughterhouse, zoo, agriculture and animal husbandry field, with
The application field data (social and economic level, population mobility, folkways and customs feature etc.) and environmental geography of realistic meaning are carried on the back
Scape data (climate characteristic, animal distribution, water source distribution etc.) are shown by spaces union, realize that geographical position semantic to mark
It signs content and infectious disease is closely related.
Step S322：Dwell point is extracted and track semantization.Track dwell point is extracted, prominent new infections person trip rises
Initial point and destination obtain the resident position of new infections person, realize data compression, reduce hash amount.Time threshold is set
Value and capacity-threshold extract dwell point, then extract to obtain the geographical semantics information of the centre of location, infer going out for new infections person
Professional etiquette is restrained.
In step s 4, the area and environmental aspect that it passes through can be inferred according to the mobile phone track of single new infections person,
Possible plague area and the initial infection sources are learnt by the mobile phone track similitude of different new infections persons.For different type
The infectious disease method that carries out the fashion trend of prediction infectious disease include but not limited to single-population method, compound population method and
One kind or combinations thereof in microscopic individual method.Using these existing achievements in research, propagation model can be established, predicts its prevalence
Trend.
By the visual analyzing of mobile phone track data as a result, can accomplish that early discovery, morning isolation, morning are controlled to the infection sources
It treats, cuts off route of transmission, protect Susceptible population, control breaking out for infectious disease.The method that the outburst of control infectious disease can be taken
Including to environment ArcMap (ArcMap：Geographic information data visualization interface and data analysing method are provided in ArcGIS) on
Resident place carries out dissipation, slaughters the animal eliminated and there is the risk that spreads the disease；It determines Susceptible population, carries out early intervention and (connect
The modes such as kind vaccine, health monitoring, communication and education)；The infection sources and the route of transmission for analyzing emerging infectious disease, carry for epidemic prevention and control
For instruction.
Disease transmission is the process of the complicated diffusion occurred in crowd, from discovery disease, determines pathogen, true
Determine route of transmission and spread path, controlled to disease, at present for be a very long process, conventional method is being found
After the infection sources, usually carry out questionnaire survey, to analyze the place that patient went, expend so a large amount of manpowers, with duration, result not
Accurately, this stage has often missed the good opportunity of many control diseases.And the technical approach of the present invention is gone on a journey by mobile phone
Data can fast and effeciently recognize the trip feature and route of primary infection person, in special circumstances can also be to the infection sources
Real-time dynamic tracing is carried out, the people timely and effectively contacted to it and ground carry out Disease Intervention, not only accurate convenient, also save
A large amount of a large amount of manpower, material resources and financial resources.
The hand data collection that the tracking of the infection sources is used in the prior art, in being described by the interview of respondent
Personal subjective judgement or forgotten memory etc. may be adulterated so that the data of acquisition are not accurate enough, not comprehensive enough, not main enough
It sees.And technical scheme of the present invention directly can obtain data from data set provider third party, and then data are analyzed, this
Sample substantially increases the confidence level of data.Meanwhile that disease is generally required in gathered data is existing by staff in conventional method
Remove real-time investigation, be exposed under disease settings, the close contact infection sources and increase risk of catching an illness.And the technology of the present invention
Scheme allows staff directly to intercept data in the data of cooperation offer third party, this has ensured the peace of staff
Entirely.
The above is the preferred embodiment of the present invention, it is noted that for those skilled in the art
For, various improvements and modifications may be made without departing from the principle of the present invention, these improvements and modifications are also considered as
Protection scope of the present invention.
Claims (7)
1. utilizing the method for mobile phone trajectory predictions disease transmission trend, which is characterized in that including step：
S1：From Disease Control and Prevention Center's person's data that obtain new infections, determine that the new infections person is the infection sources；
S2：It obtains before the onset of the new infections person and the mobile phone traffic data in a period of time after the onset and its associated base stations number
According to；
S3：The rail of new infections person is carried out in GIS platform to the mobile phone traffic data and associated base stations data
Mark visual analyzing；Specifically,
S31：Track characteristic extract, mobile phone traffic data and associated base stations data are pre-processed, obtain new infections person's
Trip feature and its dwell point；
S32：Pretreated data are inputted the GIS platform by visual analyzing, are carried out new infections person and are gone out
The visual analyzing of row track data；
S4：High risk zone and the crowd for analyzing disease transmission, predict disease transmission trend；Specifically, according to single new hair
Its infection time and place are inferred in the mobile phone track of the infected, and are learnt by the mobile phone track similitude of different new infections persons
Possible plague area and the initial infection sources；Disease transmission trend is predicted according to plague area and the initial infection sources.
2. the method for utilizing mobile phone trajectory predictions disease transmission trend as described in claim 1, which is characterized in that step S2
Described in for a period of time be one week to two weeks.
3. the method for utilizing mobile phone trajectory predictions disease transmission trend as described in claim 1, which is characterized in that step S2
Described in new infections person mobile phone traffic data include user trigger traffic time, user communication business type and User ID
Number；The associated base stations data include and the relevant base station location region recognition number of the mobile phone traffic data and base station section
Station location marker number.
4. the method for utilizing mobile phone trajectory predictions disease transmission trend as described in claim 1, which is characterized in that step S3
Described in GIS platform be ArcGIS Visualization Platforms.
5. the method for utilizing mobile phone trajectory predictions disease transmission trend as claimed in claim 4, which is characterized in that step S3
Including step：Using Apriori algorithm to the mobile phone traffic data and associated base stations data on ArcGIS Visualization Platforms
Carry out the track visual analyzing of new infections person.
6. the method for utilizing mobile phone trajectory predictions disease transmission trend as described in claim 1, which is characterized in that step
S32 includes the semantization of location data, and the semantization of location data includes step：
S321：The semantization of track data geographic location；
S322：Dwell point is extracted and track semantization.
7. the method for utilizing mobile phone trajectory predictions disease transmission trend as described in claim 1, which is characterized in that the step
Predict the fashion trend of infectious disease described in rapid S4, method include but not limited to single-population method, compound population method and
One kind or combinations thereof in microscopic individual method.
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