Summary of the invention
The present invention carries out various dimensions assessment from aspects such as quantity of state score, evaluation period and evaluation sections to outlet line, sets up a kind of transmission facility state evaluating method combining state, time, these three dimensions of space.First the present invention establishes the transmission facility state evaluation model with multi-layer framework, establishes special evaluation period and special track section.Then using the basic methods of marking of accumulated deduction method each parameter in evaluation model, combining assessment period and evaluation section provide each parameter actual weight and actual deduction of points value.Finally calculate each sub-unit of transmission facility, tower position section, overall score value successively according to parameter score value, and the integrality of combining assessment period and these two dimension Comprehensive Evaluation transmission facilities of evaluation section.
Fuzzy transmission facility state evaluating method is weighed in change based on combination weighting of the present invention, comprises the following steps:
Step S1, establishes the transmission facility state evaluation model with multi-layer framework, and asserted state evaluating system;
Step S2, describes evaluation method and the standard of deducting point of each parameter, defines special evaluation period and special track section, and combining assessment period and these two dimensions of evaluation section establish the computing method of each parameter actual weight and actual deduction of points value;
Step S3, calculates each sub-unit of transmission facility, tower position section, overall score value successively according to parameter score value, and the integrality of combining assessment period and these two dimension Comprehensive Evaluation transmission facilities of evaluation section.
In above-mentioned transmission facility state evaluating method, described step S1 comprises:
The principle of and extensibility comprehensive based on transmission facility state estimation, sets up the state evaluation model with multi-layer framework as shown in Figure 1.State evaluation model is divided into transmission facility parts, tower position section, three, overall circuit evaluation layer.Transmission facility is divided into 9 parts by transmission facility component layer, and the evaluation parameter of each parts is as shown in table 1; Tower position section layer is made up of the evaluation of each base tower position section, and in the section of adjacent towers position, the state of each sub-unit influences each other; Overall line layer refers to the evaluation to whole piece transmission line of electricity, its combine each sub-unit, tower position section status information and evaluate the various dimensions such as period, section information, finally realize the comprehensive evaluation of circuit.
The state evaluation parameter of each sub-unit of table 1
In above-mentioned transmission facility state evaluating method, described step S2 comprises:
Describe evaluation method and the standard of deducting point of each parameter, distribute according to the fault of circuit, external force, environment distribution etc. establish the special evaluation period of circuit and special track section, the time of evaluation, spatial information are converted into coefficient factor and are integrated in the standard of deducting point of each parameter simultaneously, establish the computing method of each parameter actual weight and actual deduction of points value in conjunction with actual evaluation period and evaluation section.
1) methods of marking and the standard of deducting point of each parameter is established
Described each parameter refers to all state evaluation parameters in table 1, and parameter combines existing directive/guide, industry standard, specification etc. and obtains, the daily tour of the obtain manner of parametric data.
Accumulated deduction method is used to the methods of marking of each parameter.First establish the score range of equipment running status, full marks are 100 points, and 0 point of indication equipment needs to overhaul immediately, 100 points of then indication equipment normal operations, without the need to maintenance.According to the influence degree of quantity of state to equipment safety operation, equipment state is divided into level Four, represent impact from small to large, weight arranges and is respectively 1,2,3,4, the degradation of quantity of state is also divided into level Four from light to heavy, corresponding basic deduction of points is 2,4,6,8 points, and the weight that deduction of points value equals quantity of state is multiplied by deduction of points value.
2) special period and the special sector of transmission facility state evaluation is established
Transmission facility is because its distribution area is wide in operational process, and suffered external force, natural environment influence are complicated and changeable, therefore should consider the impact of Time and place position when evaluating.By the statistical study to circuit fault distribution over the years, external force, environment distribution, establish the special evaluation period of transmission facility and special track section.
Comprise that thunderbolt takes place frequently the period (3 ~ September), mountain fire takes place frequently the period (September ~ January next year), icing takes place frequently the period (November ~ February next year), typhoon takes place frequently the period (6 ~ October), bird pest takes place frequently the period (9 ~ November), outside destroy takes place frequently the period (9 ~ November) the special evaluation period.
Special evaluation section comprises thunderbolt section, mountain fire section, icing section, typhoon take place frequently section, the outside destroy of section, bird pest that take place frequently that take place frequently that take place frequently that take place frequently and to take place frequently section.Special evaluation section presents different geographic position according to the difference evaluating circuit, for the administrative circuit of south electric network, the thunderbolt section that takes place frequently is Guangzhou office, Baise office, Wuzhou office, the administrative section of Liuzhou office, the mountain fire section that takes place frequently is Liuzhou office, the administrative section of natural bridge office, the icing section that takes place frequently is Kweiyang office, natural bridge office, the administrative section of Nanning office, the typhoon section that takes place frequently is Guangzhou office, Kweiyang office, the administrative section of Wuzhou office, the bird pest section that takes place frequently is the administrative section of Qujing office, and the outside destroy section that takes place frequently is Guangzhou office, the administrative section of Kweiyang office.
3) actual weight and the deduction of points value of each parameter is calculated
1. under regular time periods, section, the mark system of each parameter and weight divide
Under regular time periods, section, with the state evaluation directive/guide of national standard, industry standard, state's net and south net for foundation, the weight obtaining each parameter divides and standard of deducting point.
2. under special period or special sector, the mark system of each parameter and weight divide
2.1 special evaluation periods
When parameter is in the special evaluation period, standard of deducting point is consistent with regular time periods, section, but the weight of parameter and deduction of points value should be multiplied by specific factor on the basis of regular time periods.
Concrete formula is as follows:
λ
2=α
1*λ
1
Wherein: λ
1quantity of state weight under regular time periods, λ
2for quantity of state weight under the special period, α
1for the coefficient factor of special period.
K
2=α
1*K
1
Wherein: K
1quantity of state deduction of points value substantially under regular time periods, K
2for quantity of state deduction of points value substantially under the special period, α
1for the coefficient factor of special period.
The distribution function of coefficient factor α is drawn by the statistics of line fault over the years, defect monthly frequency, the distribution function that the different special period is corresponding different.
2.1.1 icing takes place frequently the period
The icing of transmission line of electricity mainly occurs between February November to next year, and the frequency that especially icing occurs when entering winter and cold spell in later spring is the highest.January and Dec are almost the months that all heavy ice-covering areas temperature on average is minimum, but humidity is relatively little, and therefore line ice coating is lighter relative to November, February.
Coefficient factor α obeys the normal distribution of N (12,2), and formula is:
Wherein, x is month (January next year, x=13).Its value is as shown below, can draw the value of coefficient factor α according to the period of state evaluation, thus the weight of quantity of state and deduction of points value under calculating the special period.Owing to considering the impact of special period during state evaluation, the α value therefore between November ~ February next year draws from figure, and the α value in other month gets 1.
2.1.2 thunder and lightning takes place frequently the period
China's thunder and lightning mostly occurs at the beginning of summer, the end of spring and the beginning of summer, autumn late summer (5 to September), but does not also get rid of the possibility that other seasons, thunder and lightning took place frequently, especially in south, as long as ground steam is abundant, cold and heat air crosses many, and air-flow lifting campaign is obvious, just easily produces the strong convective weathers such as thunder and lightning.
Coefficient factor α obeys the t distribution of t (3), and formula is:
Its value is as shown below, owing to only considering the impact of special period when evaluating, therefore May ~ September between α value draw from figure, the α value in other month gets 1.
2.1.3 mountain fire takes place frequently the period
Mountain fire occur environmental baseline and line channel in vegetation, surrounding enviroment, terrain and personnel activity's situation closely related.Autumn and first winter (September ~ January next year) are all that mountain fire takes place frequently the period, this is because dry weather, windy, now peasant burns the grass on waste land easily, causes mountain fire occurred frequently.The statistics of mountain fire trip accident occurs from each department, and Guizhou, Yunnan are the districts occurred frequently that mountain fire causes line tripping, and Liuzhou office, the administrative circuit of Guizhou office are mountain fire guard key districts.
Coefficient factor α obeys the weibull distribution of weib (1,1.2), and formula is:
α
1(x)=1.2(x-11)
0.2exp(-(x-11)
1.2)
Its value is as shown below, and owing to only considering the impact of special period when evaluating, the α value therefore between September ~ January next year draws from figure, and the α value in other month gets 1.
2.1.4 typhoon takes place frequently the period
Northern Hemisphere typhoon mostly occurred in 6 ~ October.Coefficient factor α obeys the beta distribution of beta (2,5), and x represents month, and formula is:
Its value is as shown below, and owing to only considering the impact of special period when evaluating, the α value therefore between 6 ~ October draws from figure, and the α value in other month gets 1.
2.1.5 bird pest and external force take place frequently the period
Bird pest and external force period that takes place frequently is all 9 ~ November.Coefficient factor α obeys the distribution of cauchy (8,1),
Its value is as shown below, and owing to only considering the impact of special period when evaluating, the α value therefore between 9 ~ November draws from figure, and the α value in other month gets 1.
2.2 special evaluation sections
When parameter is in special evaluation section, standard of deducting point is consistent with regular time periods, section, but the weight of parameter and deduction of points value should be multiplied by specific factor on the basis of regular time periods.
The concrete formula of quantity of state weight is
λ
3=α
2*λ
1
Wherein: λ
1quantity of state weight under regular time periods, λ
3for quantity of state weight under special sector, α
2for the coefficient factor of special sector.
The concrete formula of quantity of state deduction of points value is
K
3=α
2*K
1
Wherein: K
1quantity of state deduction of points value under regular time periods, K
3for quantity of state deduction of points value under the special period, α
2for the coefficient factor of special sector.
Coefficient factor α
2value drawn by the statistical study of trouble spot density in Frequent Troubles region. according to the statistics in the geographic position of fault over the years in Frequent Troubles region (in figure. be trouble spot), with Frequent Troubles regional center for density center O, draw the trouble spot density function φ centered by O, φ is normal distyribution function, is designated as φ ~ N (μ
2, δ
2 2).
This density function φ shows, from density center more away from, the distribution of trouble spot is more sparse, and the probability of line failure is less. the coefficient factor α distribution function that different special sector is corresponding different.
The section 2.2.1 icing takes place frequently
The icing section that takes place frequently is Kweiyang office, natural bridge office, the administrative section of Nanning office, and coefficient factor α obeys the normal distribution of N (0,1.63), and formula is
Wherein x represents the distance (unit is km) at parameter geographic location to be evaluated and special sector center.α value is as shown below, and owing to only considering the impact of special period when evaluating, the α value be therefore between 0 ~ 30km as x draws from figure, and α value when x is greater than 30km gets 1.
The section 2.2.2 thunderbolt takes place frequently
The thunderbolt section that takes place frequently is Guangzhou office, Baise office, Wuzhou office, the administrative section of Liuzhou office, and coefficient factor α obeys index distribution, formula is
Wherein x represents the distance (unit is km) at parameter geographic location to be evaluated and special sector center.α value is as shown below, and along with the increase of x, the value of α trends towards 1. gradually
The section 2.2.3 mountain fire takes place frequently
The mountain fire section that takes place frequently is Liuzhou office, the administrative section of natural bridge office, and coefficient factor α obeys the f distribution of f (2,5), and formula is
Wherein x represents the distance (unit is km) at parameter geographic location to be evaluated and special sector center.α value is as shown below, and along with the increase of x, the value of α trends towards 1. gradually
The section 2.2.4 typhoon takes place frequently
The typhoon section that takes place frequently is Guangzhou office, the administrative section of Nanning office, and coefficient factor α obeys the gamma distribution of gamma (1,2), and formula is
Wherein x represents the distance (unit is km) at parameter geographic location to be evaluated and special sector center.Wherein x represents the distance (unit is km) at parameter geographic location to be evaluated and special sector center.α value is as shown below, and along with the increase of x, the value of α trends towards 1. gradually
2.2.5 bird pest, outside destroy take place frequently section
The mountain fire section that takes place frequently is Liuzhou office, the administrative section of natural bridge office, and coefficient factor α obeys card side's distribution of chi2 (4), and formula is
Wherein x represents the distance (unit is km) at parameter geographic location to be evaluated and special sector center.α value is as shown below, and along with the increase of x, the value of α trends towards 1 gradually.
2.3 parameters to be evaluated are in special period and special sector simultaneously
When parameter to be evaluated is in special period or special sector simultaneously, obtain the coefficient factor α that it corresponds to special period and special sector respectively
1and α
2,
α=α
1·α
2
By α
1and α
2product as actual coefficients factor-alpha, thus calculate actual weight and actual deduction of points value.
In above-mentioned transmission facility state evaluating method, described step S3 comprises:
The each sub-unit of transmission facility, tower position section, overall score value is calculated successively according to parameter score value, and the integrality of combining assessment period and these two dimension Comprehensive Evaluation transmission facilities of evaluation section.
1) score value of each sub-unit of every base tower position section is calculated
Each sub-unit total score of every base tower position section is 100 points, and each sub-unit total penalties upper limit is 100 points.According to evaluation method and the standard of deducting point of parameter each in step S2, the score value computation process of each sub-unit of every base tower position section is as follows:
The deduction of points value B of single parameter
B=K×Z
Wherein: K is the basic deduction of points value of quantity of state, and Z is the weighted value of quantity of state.Choose corresponding weight and deduction of points value according to virtual condition evaluation time, assessment circuit, when being in regular time periods, section, K and Z draws according to standard of deducting point in existing state net and southern net state assessment directive/guide; When being in special evaluation period or special evaluation section, K and Z draws according to the computing method of actual weight in step S2 and reality deduction of points value substantially.
The deduction of points value Y of each sub-unit of every base tower position section
Wherein: X is the deduction of points quantity of state item number of each sub-unit of every base tower position section, and B is the deduction of points value of each quantity of state.
The score value Q of each sub-unit of every base tower position section
Q=100-Y
2) what calculate every base tower position section must score value
The section evaluation of tower position is made up of the section sub-unit evaluation of tower position, and its evaluation procedure is as follows:
The weight score value R of each sub-unit of every base tower position section
R=Q×P
Wherein: Q is the sub-unit score value calculated, and P is the weight of this sub-unit.
The PTS S of every base tower position section
Wherein: R1 ~ R8 is the weight score value of 8 sub-units in every base tower position section.
3) score value of computational scheme entirety
The overall scores O of circuit sub-unit:
Wherein: N is the tower position hop count amount that this circuit exists deduction of points, Q is the score value that this circuit exists corresponding sub-unit in the tower position section of deduction of points.
The score T of circuit entirety:
Wherein: N is the tower position hop count amount that this circuit exists deduction of points, S is the score value that this circuit exists the tower position section of deduction of points.
4) transmission facility integrality is evaluated
According to various dimensions interpretational criteria, according to the integrality evaluating period, the geographical section of circuit, overall these three the dimension comprehensive descision circuits of score value of circuit, evaluating principle is:
1. evaluate state score table according to circuit under normal circumstances and provide circuit opinion rating;
According to the overall score T of the circuit calculated, obtain the integrality of circuit.The score range of the various evaluation states of circuit is as shown in table 3.
2. table 3 circuit overall evaluation state score scope table
Score value |
100~95 |
85 ~ 95 (containing) |
75 ~ 85 (containing) |
75 (containing) below |
Evaluation state |
Normal condition |
Attention state |
Abnormality |
Severe conditions |
2., when the evaluation of circuit is when being in special period or special sector, strengthen and occur abnormal quantity of state weight and deduction of points value, if desired the section evaluation of tower position is reduced a grade.
Following several situation is divided into when being in the circuit overall assessment of special evaluation period or special evaluation section:
A. show as normal or attention state as circuit PTS T and do not occur situation listed in table 4, then this circuit overall evaluation is normal condition;
B. when all sub-units must be divided into normal or attention state, but occur one of situation listed in table 4, then this circuit overall evaluation is abnormality.
C., when arbitrary circuit has 5 bases and above tower position section must be divided into attention state, no matter circuit sub-unit score and circuit must be divided into how many, and the circuit overall evaluation is attention state.
D., when arbitrary circuit has 3 bases and above tower position section must be divided into abnormality, no matter circuit sub-unit score and circuit must be divided into how many, and the circuit overall evaluation is abnormality.
E., when arbitrary circuit has 1 base and above tower position section must be divided into severe conditions, no matter circuit sub-unit score and circuit must be divided into how many, and the circuit overall evaluation is severe conditions.
Abnormal state list in table 4 circuit special period, section
Embodiment
Below in conjunction with drawings and Examples, the present invention is elaborated.
According to various dimensions evaluation method of the present invention, state evaluation is carried out to the 500kV transmission line of electricity osmanthus naze line of south electric network subordinate, and verifies in conjunction with the result of practical operation situation to this various dimensions state evaluation.The part tour of this section of transmission line of electricity is recorded as shown in table 5:
Table 5 patrolling transmission line record
The state evaluation parameter system of this section of transmission line of electricity is as shown in table 1, and its state Comment gathers is that V={ is good, generally, notes, serious }, the state evaluation process of method for evaluating state according to the present invention to this transmission line of electricity is as follows:
1. calculate the score value of sub-unit
According to the parameter standard of deducting point making an inspection tour record and component leads, suppose that the score value should detained under the normal evaluation period is 4 points, 5 points and 5 points.
(1) owing to being Dec take place frequently the period for icing, the weight of therefore relevant with icing parameter and deduction of points value should be multiplied by coefficient factor on the basis of regular time periods.Icing takes place frequently coefficient factor α corresponding to period
1obey the distribution of N (12,2), formula is:
Wherein, x is month (January next year, x=13).α
1value is as shown below, can draw the value of coefficient factor α according to the period of state evaluation, thus the weight of quantity of state and deduction of points value under calculating the special period.
Because the state evaluation time is Dec, therefore coefficient factor α can be obtained from figure
1value be 1.2.
(2) #230 ~ #231 tower position section of osmanthus naze line is in icing and takes place frequently section, and the weight of therefore relevant with icing parameter and deduction of points value should be multiplied by coefficient factor on the basis of regular time periods.Icing takes place frequently coefficient factor α corresponding to section
2obey the distribution of N (0,1.63), formula is:
Wherein x represents the distance (unit is km) at parameter geographic location to be evaluated and special sector center.α
2value can directly read from figure. coefficient factor α
2distribution show from special sector center more away from, coefficient factor α
2value more close to 1, when being greater than 30km from special sector centre distance, α
2value be all 1.
Because the section distance icing section center, #230 ~ #231 tower position of osmanthus naze line is 23km, therefore from figure, directly read α
2value be 1.05.
(3) when occurring that the parameter of deterioration is in special evaluation period or special evaluation section simultaneously, the coefficient factor that peek value is larger substitutes in the computing formula of actual weight, therefore actual coefficients factor-alpha=1.2.Calculate actual weight and the reality deduction of points value substantially of three parameters occurring deterioration, as shown in table 6 below:
Table 6 parameter deduction of points value
The total penalties value calculating component leads is 80.6, therefore wire must be divided into 19.4.
According to tour record, there is not deduction of points phenomenon in other parts, therefore other parts must be divided into 100 points.
2. calculate the score value of tower position section
The weight of each sub-unit and score, what weighting obtained this base tower position section must score value, as shown in table 7 below:
The each sub-unit score value of table 7
Sequence |
Sub-unit |
Sub-unit weight (P) |
Sub-unit score |
Sub-unit weighting obtains |
1 |
Basis |
0.1 |
100 |
10 |
2 |
Shaft tower |
0.1 |
100 |
10 |
3 |
Lead, ground wire |
0.2 |
19.4 |
3.88 |
4 |
Insulator |
0.15 |
100 |
15 |
5 |
Gold utensil |
0.15 |
100 |
15 |
6 |
Earthing device |
0.1 |
100 |
10 |
7 |
Affiliated facility |
0.1 |
100 |
10 |
8 |
Channel environment |
0.1 |
100 |
10 |
Therefore osmanthus naze line #230 ~ #231 tower position section must be divided into S=84.
3. the score value of computational scheme entirety
All there is similar tour phenomenon in these 4 adjacent base tower position sections of osmanthus naze line #228 ~ #231, the score value in like manner obtaining this 4 base tower position section is 84 points.
According to the computing formula of the overall score of circuit, obtaining circuit must be divided into T=84.
4. comprehensive descision transmission facility integrality
First, combined circuit PTS 84 points and condition grading table, can judge that circuit is in "abnormal" state.
Secondly, because osmanthus naze line is in special evaluation period (icing takes place frequently the period), and the wire that there is degradation phenomena is in special evaluation section (icing take place frequently section), therefore answers combined circuit score, time, these three dimensions of space to evaluate transmission facility entirety." when arbitrary circuit has 3 bases and above tower position section must be divided into abnormality, no matter circuit sub-unit score and circuit must be divided into how many, and the circuit overall evaluation is abnormality with the evaluation principle in step S3." corresponding, judge that circuit is in "abnormal" state.
Finally reach a conclusion, this transmission line status evaluation result is "abnormal" state, and represent the quantity of state slight degradation of circuit, running status integral working is not good enough, should keep a close eye on its follow-up state development, arranges maintenance as early as possible.
The actual conditions of this section of transmission line of electricity are: the heavy snow weather being in winter at that time, and on transmission line of electricity, ice covering thickness is close to design load, and because the sag affecting wire of icing departs from normal value, wire exists abnormal vibrations; Maintenance record had been carried out before showing this section lead about splicing fitting and the maintenance of repairing wire strand breakage.Comprehensive above actual conditions, can judge this section of transmission line of electricity had part important state amount close to or only slight beyond standard value, should operation be monitored, and need to arrange as early as possible to overhaul.This is consistent with the conclusion that appraisal procedure in the present invention draws.
5. contrast with the evaluation result of other method
If only consider the deduction of points value of regular time periods line, and not comprehensive evaluation period, these two dimensions of section, then obtain must being divided into of these parts of wire: Q=100-(4 × 4+4 × 5+4 × 5)=44
Tower position section must be divided into: S=88.8
Circuit must be divided into: S=88.8
: state that transmission facility is in " attention " only need to pay close attention to its ruuning situation, according to plan periodic maintenance in real time according to the conclusion that circuit PTS draws.Obviously, this conclusion and actual conditions are not inconsistent.Therefore, by the contrast of two kinds of methods, use multi dimensional analysis method than the impact only considering circuit score and more can objectively respond some parameter drift-out normal value of transmission facility to bring to integrality, its assessment result can closer to actual motion state.