CN104571068B - The operating and optimization control method and system of a kind of distributed energy resource system - Google Patents
The operating and optimization control method and system of a kind of distributed energy resource system Download PDFInfo
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- CN104571068B CN104571068B CN201510052320.6A CN201510052320A CN104571068B CN 104571068 B CN104571068 B CN 104571068B CN 201510052320 A CN201510052320 A CN 201510052320A CN 104571068 B CN104571068 B CN 104571068B
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Abstract
The invention discloses the operating and optimization control method and system of a kind of distributed energy resource system, methods described includes：S1, gathers environmental information and unit actual operating data, to obtain the hot and cold load of distributed busbar protection user with season and the Changing Pattern at moment, sets up cool and thermal power load forecasting model；S2, by introducing the verification factor and unit actual operating data, on-line optimization cool and thermal power load forecasting model in real time；S3, on the premise of efficiency of energy utilization is met, to realize that full factory's optimal economic benefit is target, hot and cold, electric load the dynamic need according to prediction sets up load dynamic optimization distribution model, output load dynamic optimization allocation result；S4, based on full factory's optimal economic benefit, Combinatorial Optimization Model is set up according to load dynamic optimization allocation result, exports unit running optimization order.The present invention can obtain high-precision load prediction information, form corresponding optimization order, and vehicle air-conditioning is carried out to load dynamic and unit operation.
Description
Technical field
It is particularly a kind of for firing the present invention relates to the operating and optimization control method and system of a kind of distributed energy resource system
Gas-Steam Combined Cycle adds the operating and optimization control method and system of the cooling heating and power generation system of UTILIZATION OF VESIDUAL HEAT IN.
Background technology
Distributed energy refers to the energy comprehensive utilization system for being distributed in user terminal, using natural gas or regenerative resource as
Main drive energy, based on hot and cold, CCHP technology, realizes directly to meet the energy step of the various demands of user
Utilize, be by efficiently, cleaning, flexibly with the characteristics of energy supplying system, it has also become the green emerging energy that the world today develops rapidly
Industry.
The distinguishing feature of distributed energy resource system operation is big load variations, and especially hot and cold load variations are big, randomness
By force.To meet cold and hot electrical load requirement, system often in variable parameter operation state, due to lacking load prediction link or prediction
Precision is relatively low, and the deviation of load optimal distribution constantly becomes big, and the response characteristic of unit and its control system occurs delayed, super
Adjust, even vibrate, the requirement of comprehensive utilization rate of energy source value when causing system to be difficult to reach design, economic benefit is also difficult to protect
Card.
Because the hot and cold of user side, electric load are being continually changing, the collocation operation mould of each main equipment of distributed busbar protection
Formula is more, throws more/moves back unit or main equipment collocation is unreasonable, and energy consumption increase, plant consumption increase, economy can be caused to drop
It is low, therefore, how the operational mode of reasonably optimizing multicomputer is also distributed energy resource system problem demanding prompt solution.And it is current,
The SIS systems of distributed busbar protection are only responsible for real-time production data transmission and form, not responsible decision-making in-situ optimal control and seek
Excellent management, thus the operation optimum management of field apparatus can not be instructed；And the DCS control systems of existing distributed busbar protection with
SIS production management system independent operatings, production management system fails to be associated with control system real-time online, without to whole
The real-time online running optimizatin function of distributed busbar protection.
The content of the invention
It is an object of the present invention to provide the operating and optimization control method and system of a kind of distributed energy resource system, can
High-precision load prediction information is obtained, corresponding optimization order is formed, load dynamic and unit operation is carried out online excellent
Change control.
In order to solve the above technical problems, the present invention is adopted the following technical scheme that：A kind of operation of distributed energy resource system
Optimal control method, comprises the following steps：
S1, gathers environmental information and unit actual operating data, with obtain the hot and cold load of distributed busbar protection user with
Season and the Changing Pattern at moment, further according to the Changing Pattern and user's steam demand plan, set up cool and thermal power load prediction
Model；
S2, the factor and unit actual operating data are verified by introducing in real time, on-line optimization cool and thermal power load forecasting model,
By when predict hot and cold, electric load dynamic need；
S3, on the premise of efficiency of energy utilization is met, to realize that full factory's optimal economic benefit is target, according to prediction
Hot and cold, electric load dynamic need sets up load dynamic optimization distribution model, output load dynamic optimization allocation result；
S4, based on full factory's optimal economic benefit, Combinatorial Optimization Model is set up according to load dynamic optimization allocation result, output
Unit running optimization order, optimizes and regulates and controls to load implementation.
In the operating and optimization control method of foregoing distributed energy resource system, the environmental information includes local atmospheric environment
Temperature, humidity information；The unit actual operating data includes the rate of load condensate and operating efficiency of unit.
In the operating and optimization control method of foregoing distributed energy resource system, the refrigeration duty in the step S1 is air-conditioning cold
Load, thermic load includes industrial steam load and air-conditioning thermic load, and the cool and thermal power load forecasting model is built by following steps
It is vertical：S11, with current time as starting point, collects the weather forecast information (including temperature, humidity etc.) in nearly 3 years, utilization index
Smoothing algorithm obtain by when Changes in weather curve, then contrasted with current weather forecast information, corrected, set up weather prognosis
Model, is predicted to the weather condition in following three days, calculate it is following one day by when Changes in weather curve；
S12, according to following one day by when Changes in weather curve, statistics energy source station user no less than 1 year in use energy
(hot and cold) data, calculate following one day hot and cold load with season and the change with time curve at moment, further according to following one day
Hot and cold load with the change with time curve and user's steam demand plan at season and moment, set up cool and thermal power load prediction mould
Type.
Following one week weather condition is generally predicted in weather forecast, and is directed to distributed energy resource system, mainly considers that it is practical
Property, three days futures of selection are used as prediction step；Because oversize then without practical value, too it is short then to ensuing Exact Forecast " not
Coming one day " support of data is insufficient.Calculate and the change with time curve of forecast " following one day " is in order to be able to be supplied to the energy
Operations staff's unit of second day of standing is opened and operational plan arrangement.
In the operating and optimization control method of foregoing distributed energy resource system, in the step S2, the real-time verification because
Son is the predicted load as obtained by instant online data amendment, and the instant data are carried including distributed busbar protection to user
The temperature and flow of backwater main pipe are supplied for air-conditioning hot water or cold water.
It is described hot and cold, electric negative in the step S2 in the operating and optimization control method of foregoing distributed energy resource system
The dynamic need of lotus includes the future load distribution situation of energy source station user and the generation moment and duration of peak load.
In the operating and optimization control method of foregoing distributed energy resource system, in the step S3, load dynamic optimization point
With hot and cold, electric load value that model is obtained according to prediction, output load dynamic optimization allocation result is each to distributed busbar protection
Set unit must complete load quantity and be allocated；The load dynamic optimization distribution model is set up according to the following steps：
S31, the addition of energy source station disbursement and be object function in a distributed manner, disbursement includes power consumption expense, consumption
Gas expense is used and operation and maintenance cost；
S32, to meet efficiency of energy utilization as constraints, constraints includes system cool and thermal power of the user with energy demand
(especially power system has the characteristics of i.e. product is used to energy resource system to product equilibrium condition, and it is electric, hot, cold that energy source station is provided
Product has to produce and use (dissolve) balance each other), unit capacity qualifications and environmental emission restrictive condition；
S33, by calculating, solution when showing that the object function met under constraints is minimum, so as to obtain optimal bearing
Lotus dynamic optimization allocation result.
It is dynamically excellent according to load in the step S4 in the operating and optimization control method of foregoing distributed energy resource system
Change the load completed needed for the often set unit that allocation result is obtained, to all possible energy supply (hot and cold, electricity) in single set unit inside
Mode is combined optimization and the regulation of relevant parameter control, meets load supply；The Combinatorial Optimization Model is according to the following steps
Set up：
S41, with the addition of unit disbursement and as object function, the power consumption expense of unit disbursement including unit and
Gas consumption expense；
S42, it is upper and lower that constraints meets supply values condition, the capacity regulating of unit supply unit including cold and hot electric load
(in variable working condition, variable load operation, the rate of change of its capacity or Load Regulation is uphill, downhill speed to unit to slope speed qualifications
Rate can not be too fast, otherwise causes system unstable, damages unit, thus must have speed to limit) and operation interval restriction bar
Part；
S43, by calculating, solution when showing that the object function met under constraints is minimum, so as to obtain optimal group
Conjunction mode.
A kind of running optimizatin control system of the distributed energy resource system for realizing preceding method, including：
Information acquisition module, for gathering environmental information and unit actual operating data；
Cool and thermal power load forecasting model, the data for being gathered according to information acquisition module obtain distributed busbar protection user
Hot and cold load with season and the Changing Pattern at moment, further according to the Changing Pattern and user's steam demand plan, set up cold
Thermoelectricity load forecasting model；
Load prediction optimization module, for by introducing the verification factor and unit actual operating data, on-line optimization in real time
Cool and thermal power load forecasting model, by when predict hot and cold, electric load dynamic need；
Load dynamic optimization distribute module, on the premise of efficiency of energy utilization is met, to realize that full factory's economy is imitated
It is target that benefit is optimal, and hot and cold, electric load the dynamic need according to prediction sets up load dynamic optimization distribution model, and output is negative
Lotus dynamic optimization allocation result；
Load implementation Optimum Regulation module, for based on full factory's optimal economic benefit, according to load dynamic optimization point
Combinatorial Optimization Model is set up with result, unit running optimization order is exported, load implementation is optimized and regulated and controled.
In the running optimizatin control system of foregoing distributed energy resource system, the cool and thermal power load forecasting model includes：
By when Changes in weather curve computing module, for current time as starting point, collect the weather forecast in nearly 3 years
Information (including temperature, humidity etc.), utilization index smoothing algorithm obtain by when Changes in weather curve, then with current weather forecast
Information is contrasted, corrected, and sets up weather prognosis model, and the weather condition in following three days is predicted, and calculates following one
It by when Changes in weather curve；
Cooling and heating load change with time curve computing module, according to following one day by when Changes in weather curve, count the energy
The user that stands no less than in 1 year with can (hot and cold) data, calculate following one day hot and cold load with season and moment by when
Change curve.
Compared with prior art, optimal control method of the present invention can overview be " certain, two optimization "；" certain " refers to
Required hot and cold, electric load is certain to user daily, and energy source station must be accomplished to supply according to quantity, in time, that is, load is constrained to and determines；
" certain " described herein mean " it is determined that " rather than " fixation ", i.e., workload demand is a determination value all the time, this determination value by
The cool and thermal power load prediction module of this method is provided；" two optimization " refers to the use of high steam and low-pressure steam two types steam
Way optimizes, i.e., under conditions of workload demand is met, the whereabouts and sendout for how optimizing two kinds of steam cause the warp of full factory
Ji benefit is optimal；Its control strategy is：Carry out load distribution in power plants first, then carry out load implementation optimization and
Its regulation and control.
The overall target of the economic benefit and comprehensive utilization rate of energy source to realize distributed energy resource system operation of the invention
Optimal is target, with the technologies such as load prediction, on-line identification, mathematical modeling, intelligence computation, safety communication, coupling system fortune
Capable real time data and historical data, by generate electricity, refrigeration, the efficiency data of three kinds of energy resource systems of heat supply assessment, set up
And the load dynamic optimization distribution model of optimization is solved, provide optimized control and traffic order (including mode of operation and phase
The numerical value answered), and distributed monitoring control system will be reached under order, generating, refrigeration, heating unit are controlled by DCS system
System, so as to realize the optimized operation of distributed energy resource system, reaches efficient low-consume, economic matching, reliable and secure operation target.
The present invention has advantages below：
(1) intelligent optimum load dispatch
The cold and hot electric load of full factory in real time, automatically realizes the optimum allocation between each unit unit.
(2) load -response-speed and degree of regulation higher
Rational unit plus-minus and start-stop time are given, optimize load overshoot, make system negative with cool and thermal power higher
The lotus speed of response improves 8% or so and degree of regulation raising 5% or so.
(3) best combination of economic benefit and comprehensive utilization rate of energy source
System can be run according to the best match mode of economic benefit and efficiency of energy utilization, and wherein economic benefit is improved
5% or so, efficiency of energy utilization improves 3% or so.
(4) unit operation more steady, security reliability is significantly improved
Mode is applied in combination by optimize unit, regulation and control load supply is smoothed, makes the operation of unit more steady, safety
Property, reliability be improved significantly, the extension of the service life of unit.
Brief description of the drawings
Fig. 1 is the method flow diagram of the embodiment of the present invention；
Fig. 2 is the system structure diagram of the embodiment of the present invention；
Fig. 3 is the system architecture diagram of the embodiment of the present invention.
The present invention is further illustrated with reference to the accompanying drawings and detailed description.
Specific embodiment
Embodiments of the invention 1：A kind of operating and optimization control method of distributed energy resource system, as shown in figure 1, including with
Lower step：
First, data acquisition
Collection environmental information and unit actual operating data；The environmental information includes local atmospheric temperature, humidity
Information；The unit actual operating data includes the rate of load condensate and operating efficiency of unit.
2nd, cool and thermal power load forecasting model is set up
General power plant is how many as target with generated energy, and other are all subsidiary products；And be with supply of cooling, heating and electrical powers technology
The distributed busbar protection on basis is then to use to be run in " cold (heat) fixed electricity " mode.That is, energy source station main purpose is to produce
Raw and cold load or thermic load, generating then become subsidiary product, in the energy source station design phase, according to cold or thermic load demand come
Determine that unit capacity is configured, generated energy is then that thus unit capacity is determined root, referred to as cold (heat) fixed electricity ".Thus cool and thermal power
Load optimal distribution is actually the Optimizing Allocation of cooling and heating load.Refrigeration duty is defined as air-conditioning refrigeration duty, and thermic load includes
Industrial steam load and air-conditioning thermic load.Wherein air conditioner cold-heat load by low-pressure steam as driving source, by absorption refrigeration
Unit and plate type heat exchanger are realized respectively；Industrial steam load high steam as driving source, and by extracted steam from turbine, point
The combination of one or more of three kinds of modes of peak boiler and temperature-decreased pressure reducer is realized.
The hot and cold load of distributed busbar protection user is obtained with the change at season and moment according to the environmental information for gathering
Rule, further according to the Changing Pattern and the plan of user's steam demand, (plan of user's steam demand mainly passes through 9 points of evening the previous day
The use of the energy source station of user's submission in the past can plan to obtain), cool and thermal power load forecasting model is set up, it is specific as follows：
1st, with current time as starting point, the weather forecast information (including temperature, humidity etc.) in nearly 3 years is collected, using referring to
Number smoothing algorithm obtain by when Changes in weather curve, then contrasted with current weather forecast information, corrected, set up meteorological pre-
Survey model, the weather condition in following three days be predicted, calculate it is following one day by when Changes in weather curve；
2nd, according to following one day by when Changes in weather curve, statistics energy source station user no less than 1 year in can (it is cold,
Heat) data, calculate the hot and cold load of following a day with season and the change with time curve at moment, further according to it is following one day it is cold,
Thermic load sets up cool and thermal power load forecasting model with the change with time curve and user's steam demand plan at season and moment.
In the application " by when " mean and be set out to come on an hourly basis.
3rd, optimal prediction model
To improve the precision of cool and thermal power load forecasting model, the verification factor and unit actual operating data in real time is introduced,
Line, real-time optimization cool and thermal power load forecasting model, come by when predict hot and cold, electric load dynamic need.
The real-time verification factor is the predicted load as obtained by instant online data amendment, the instant packet
Include distributed busbar protection and provide a user with temperature and flow of the air-conditioning hot water or cold water for backwater main pipe.
Hot and cold, electric load the dynamic need includes that the future load distribution situation and peak valley of energy source station user are negative
The generation moment of lotus and duration.
4th, load dynamic optimization distribution
On the premise of efficiency of energy utilization is met, to realize that full factory's optimal economic benefit is target, according to prediction it is cold,
The dynamic need of optimized distributionl sets up load dynamic optimization distribution model, output load dynamic optimization allocation result, to distribution
Energy source station respectively covers unit must be completed load quantity and allocated, and the main industrial steam load, low-pressure steam load of completing is covering more
Optimization distribution between Combined Cycle Unit, and the load association between boiler and Combined Cycle Unit of being met an urgent need during peak-load condition
Distributed with optimization.The optimization of the industrial steam load is assigned as the sharing of load between supplying heat source, and the supplying heat source includes connection
Close Cycle Unit extracted steam from turbine, spike boiler and temperature-decreased pressure reducer；The low-pressure steam load (or HVAC steam load)
Optimization be assigned as steam turbine filling, between plate type heat exchanger and absorption refrigeration unit optimization distribution.
Wherein, the load dynamic optimization distribution model is set up according to the following steps：
1st, the addition of energy source station disbursement and be object function in a distributed manner, disbursement includes power consumption expense, gas consumption
Expense and operation and maintenance cost；
2nd, to meet efficiency of energy utilization as constraints, constraints includes that user is produced with the system cool and thermal power of energy demand
With equilibrium condition, unit capacity qualifications and environmental emission restrictive condition；
3rd, by calculating, solution when showing that the object function met under constraints is minimum, so as to obtain optimal load
Dynamic optimization allocation result.
5th, the optimization of load implementation and regulation and control
Based on full factory's optimal economic benefit, Combinatorial Optimization Model is set up according to load dynamic optimization allocation result, acquisition
The load for often being completed needed for set unit, exports unit running optimization order, to all possible energy supply in single set unit inside (it is cold,
Heat, electricity) mode is combined optimization and relevant parameter (valve opening of such as drawing gas, pressure and temperature reducing valve opening) is adjusted control,
Meet load supply, meet the flatness requirement of Parameters variation.The main pattern completed between each regulation and control unit in single fighter inside
Regulation and control, draw gas mainly for steam turbine and meet the operational mode optimization of each train unit under the premise of heat supply, and the purpose of optimization is real
Existing single fighter maximizing the benefits, determines the mode of operation of single fighter.For example, under a certain industrial steam demand operating mode, to steam turbine
Draw gas, temperature-decreased pressure reducer, boiler etc. of meeting an urgent need optimize combination, and calculate optimal valve opening of drawing gas, steam converter valve and open
Degree and emergent boiler load amount etc., realize power unit in economic operation；Under a certain cooling load demand operating mode, HVAC steam heat exchange,
Optimum organization and optimal regulation between filling etc. etc..
The Combinatorial Optimization Model is set up according to the following steps：
1st, with the addition of unit disbursement and as object function, unit disbursement includes the power consumption expense and consumption of unit
Gas expense is used；
2nd, constraints meets supply values condition, the capacity regulating uphill, downhill of unit supply unit including cold and hot electric load
Speed qualifications and operation interval qualifications；
3rd, by calculating, solution when showing that the object function met under constraints is minimum, so as to obtain optimal combination
Mode.
Embodiments of the invention 2：A kind of running optimizatin control of the distributed energy resource system for realizing the methods described of embodiment 1
System, as shown in Fig. 2 including：
Information acquisition module, for gathering environmental information and unit actual operating data；
Cool and thermal power load forecasting model, the data for being gathered according to information acquisition module obtain distributed busbar protection user
Hot and cold load with season and the Changing Pattern at moment, further according to the Changing Pattern and user's steam demand plan, set up cold
Thermoelectricity load forecasting model；
Load prediction optimization module, for by introducing the verification factor and unit actual operating data, on-line optimization in real time
Cool and thermal power load forecasting model, by when predict hot and cold, electric load dynamic need；
Load dynamic optimization distribute module, on the premise of efficiency of energy utilization is met, to realize that full factory's economy is imitated
It is target that benefit is optimal, and hot and cold, electric load the dynamic need according to prediction sets up load dynamic optimization distribution model, and output is negative
Lotus dynamic optimization allocation result；
Load implementation Optimum Regulation module, for based on full factory's optimal economic benefit, according to load dynamic optimization point
Combinatorial Optimization Model is set up with result, unit running optimization order is exported, load implementation is optimized and regulated and controled.
Wherein, the cool and thermal power load forecasting model includes：By when Changes in weather curve computing module, for it is current when
Between be starting point, collect it is nearly 3 years in weather forecast information (including temperature, humidity etc.), utilization index smoothing algorithm obtain by when
Changes in weather curve, is then contrasted with current weather forecast information, is corrected, and sets up weather prognosis model, to following three days
Interior weather condition is predicted, calculate following one day by when Changes in weather curve；Cooling and heating load change with time curve is calculated
Module, according to following one day by when Changes in weather curve, statistics energy source station user no less than 1 year in can (hot and cold) number
According to following one day hot and cold load of calculating is with season and the change with time curve at moment.
By load prediction optimization module provide by when cold and hot electrical load requirement determination value, then by load dynamic optimization
Distribute module carries out the load optimal distribution of level of factory, and every rational cold and hot electric load of set unit is distributed to based on unit real-time performance
Setting value, finally completes the mode adjusting between each regulation and control unit in single fighter inside by load implementation Optimum Regulation module,
So as to realize the on-line operation decision optimization of distributed busbar protection.
The system can be divided into decision optimization station and energy efficiency management station two large divisions, mainly excellent by a set of configurable decision-making in real time
Change hardware system, a set of trilogy supply energy efficiency management and load prediction calculating platform and related software bag composition.To make system operation
In efficiency data optimum state, the system is arranged on DCS public systems part.
Decision optimization station is responsible for that real-time running data is calculated and optimized, and ultimately forms decision optimization order；Energy
Effect management station is responsible for classification and management to system operation data.
The main equipment such as including decision optimization station, energy efficiency management station, optimal controller, power transfer device of hardware device.
Decision optimization station and energy efficiency management station are arranged in engineer station's (including one main frame in every station and display)；Optimal controller
Electric room is placed on, other racks with DCS public systems are placed side by side；Operating desk and two power transfer devices are arranged in
Engineer station, is that decision optimization station and energy efficiency management station provide uninterrupted power source.
The system is attributed to " clear and definite, mutual cooperation of dividing the work " with the relation of DCS system, and it is excellent in real time that the system stresses system
Change, and DCS stresses system real-time control.As shown in figure 3, the system obtains live actual operating data by DCS, then carry out
Calculate and optimize, form optimization order and be sent to DCS system execution, complete the optimization and control to distributed busbar protection.
Additionally, verifying the system by following steps：
1st, simulation is accessed.Using the distributed energy resource system of national energy distributed energy Technology R ＆ D Center it is integrated with control
Research/development platform processed, simulates the system configuration of existing true distributed busbar protection, realizes the dry run of system, verifies repeatedly, really
The stability of insurance system, possesses the condition of reaching the standard grade.
2nd, on line open loop debugging.The system is connected with DCS system, data communication rates between the two and communication is tested
Capacity, and the correctness that verification data communicates.
3rd, line closed loop debugging.The system is carried out into on-line operation debugging, by each load section testing results after, collect and
Analysis field data and unit operation parameter, update the system associated control parameters.
Claims (9)
1. a kind of operating and optimization control method of distributed energy resource system, it is characterised in that comprise the following steps：
S1, gathers environmental information and unit actual operating data, to obtain the hot and cold load of distributed busbar protection user with season
With the Changing Pattern at moment, further according to the Changing Pattern and user's steam demand plan, cool and thermal power load forecasting model is set up；
S2, by introduce in real time verification the factor and unit actual operating data, on-line optimization cool and thermal power load forecasting model, by when
Hot and cold, electric load the dynamic need of prediction；
S3, on the premise of efficiency of energy utilization is met, to realize that full factory's optimal economic benefit is target, according to prediction it is cold,
The dynamic need of optimized distributionl sets up load dynamic optimization distribution model, output load dynamic optimization allocation result；
S4, based on full factory's optimal economic benefit, Combinatorial Optimization Model is set up according to load dynamic optimization allocation result, exports unit
Running optimizatin order, optimizes and regulates and controls to load implementation, and the Combinatorial Optimization Model is many energy-provision way, multiplex energy
Mode model；
Wherein, the unit actual operating data includes the rate of load condensate and operating efficiency of unit；The Combinatorial Optimization Model press with
Lower step is set up：
S41, with the addition of unit disbursement and as object function, unit disbursement includes the power consumption expense and gas consumption of unit
Expense；
S42, constraints meets supply values condition, the capacity regulating uphill, downhill of unit supply unit speed including cold and hot electric load
Rate qualifications and operation interval qualifications；
S43, by calculating, solution when showing that the object function met under constraints is minimum, so as to obtain optimal combination side
Formula.
2. the operating and optimization control method of distributed energy resource system according to claim 1, it is characterised in that：The environment
Information includes local atmospheric temperature, humidity information.
3. the operating and optimization control method of distributed energy resource system according to claim 1 and 2, it is characterised in that：It is described
Refrigeration duty in step S1 is air-conditioning refrigeration duty, and thermic load includes industrial steam load and air-conditioning thermic load, and the cool and thermal power is born
Lotus forecast model is set up by following steps：
S11, with current time as starting point, collect it is nearly 3 years in weather forecast information, utilization index smoothing algorithm obtain by when
Changes in weather curve, is then contrasted with current weather forecast information, is corrected, and sets up weather prognosis model, to following three days
Interior weather condition is predicted, calculate following one day by when Changes in weather curve；
S12, according to following one day by when Changes in weather curve, statistics energy source station user no less than 1 year in can data,
The hot and cold load of following one day is calculated with season and the change with time curve at moment, further according to following one day hot and cold load with
The change with time curve and user's steam demand plan at season and moment, set up cool and thermal power load forecasting model.
4. the operating and optimization control method of distributed energy resource system according to claim 1, it is characterised in that：The step
In S2, the real-time verification factor is the predicted load as obtained by instant online data amendment, and the instant data include
Distributed busbar protection provides a user with temperature and data on flows of the air-conditioning hot water or cold water for backwater main pipe.
5. the operating and optimization control method of the distributed energy resource system according to claim 1 or 4, it is characterised in that：It is described
In step S2, hot and cold, electric load the dynamic need includes that the future load distribution situation and peak valley of energy source station user are negative
The generation moment of lotus and duration.
6. the operating and optimization control method of distributed energy resource system according to claim 1 and 2, it is characterised in that：It is described
In step S3, hot and cold, electric load value that load dynamic optimization distribution model is obtained according to prediction, output load dynamic optimization point
With result, set unit each to distributed busbar protection must complete load quantity and allocate；The load dynamic optimization distribution model
Set up according to the following steps：
S31, the addition of energy source station disbursement and be object function in a distributed manner, disbursement includes that power consumption expense, gas consumption are taken
With and operation and maintenance cost；
S32, to meet efficiency of energy utilization as constraints, constraints includes that user is produced with the system cool and thermal power of energy demand and uses
Equilibrium condition, unit capacity qualifications and environmental emission restrictive condition；
S33, by calculating, solution when showing that the object function met under constraints is minimum, so as to obtain optimal load move
State optimizes allocation result.
7. the operating and optimization control method of distributed energy resource system according to claim 6, it is characterised in that：The step
In S4, the load completed according to needed for the often set unit that load dynamic optimization allocation result is obtained is all to single set unit inside
Energy-provision way is combined optimization and the regulation of relevant parameter control, meets load supply.
8. a kind of running optimizatin control system of the distributed energy resource system for realizing claim 1~7 any one methods described,
It is characterised in that it includes：
Information acquisition module, for gathering environmental information and unit actual operating data；
Cool and thermal power load forecasting model, the data for being gathered according to information acquisition module obtain distributed busbar protection user's
Hot and cold load, further according to the Changing Pattern and user's steam demand plan, sets up cold and hot with season and the Changing Pattern at moment
Electric load forecast model；
Load prediction optimization module, for by introducing the verification factor and unit actual operating data in real time, on-line optimization to be cold and hot
Electric load forecast model, by when predict hot and cold, electric load dynamic need；
Load dynamic optimization distribute module, on the premise of efficiency of energy utilization is met, to realize full factory's economic benefit most
Excellent is target, and hot and cold, electric load the dynamic need according to prediction sets up load dynamic optimization distribution model, and output load is moved
State optimizes allocation result；
Load implementation Optimum Regulation module, for based on full factory's optimal economic benefit, being distributed according to load dynamic optimization and being tied
Fruit sets up Combinatorial Optimization Model, exports unit running optimization order, and load implementation is optimized and regulated and controled.
9. the running optimizatin control system of distributed energy resource system according to claim 8, it is characterised in that：It is described cold and hot
Electric load forecast model includes：
By when Changes in weather curve computing module, for current time as starting point, collect the weather forecast information in nearly 3 years,
Utilization index smoothing algorithm obtain by when Changes in weather curve, then contrasted with current weather forecast information, corrected, set up
Weather prognosis model, is predicted to the weather condition in following three days, calculate it is following one day by when Changes in weather curve；
Cooling and heating load change with time curve computing module, according to following one day by when Changes in weather curve, statistics energy source station uses
Family is no less than in 1 year and uses energy data, calculates following one day hot and cold load with season and the change with time curve at moment.
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