CN104376504B - A kind of distribution system probabilistic reliability appraisal procedure based on analytic method - Google Patents
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Abstract
A kind of distribution system probabilistic reliability appraisal procedure based on analytic method：Multidomain treat-ment is carried out to given power distribution network, is divided into faulty section, isolated area, seamless isolated island area and without the zone of influence, sets up Failure Mode Effective Analysis Table storehouse, initialize each parameter；Initialization simulation clock, produces random number, the crash rate parameter in each element state model obtains minimum value non-failure operation time, calculates the Fault Isolation time and load turns the band time, promote simulation clock；Failure Mode Effective Analysis Table storehouse is inquired about, classification belonging to each cell is determined, judges whether to form isolated island, adopt and be treated variously for non-isolated island area for isolated island area；The energy storage device state-of-charge probability distribution obtained according to the computational methods of probabilistic reliability, sets up the state sampling of energy storage device；The probability distribution probability of each load point single failure index is overlapped, the probabilistic reliability index of each load point and system is calculated.The present invention improves analog rate while certain calculation accuracy is ensured, comprehensively reflects grid condition.
Description
Technical field
The present invention relates to a kind of distribution system probabilistic reliability appraisal procedure.It is more particularly to a kind of to be applied to containing distribution
The distribution system probabilistic reliability appraisal procedure based on analytic method of power supply.
Background technology
In face of the opportunity to develop that energy science and technology is innovated and energy system makes the transition, modern society's energy security consciousness is progressively carried
Height, distribution Power System Reliability and then as power consumer focal point；Meanwhile, between lifting distribution Power System Reliability and investment
Marginal cost relation, directly affects the economic benefit of electric power enterprise and society, in addition, the renewable distributed electrical such as blower fan, photovoltaic
The exert oneself influence of fluctuation and energy storage device operation characteristic of source more exacerbates the complex nature of the problem.Therefore, comment overall scientific
Estimate distribution Power System Reliability to have important practical significance.
After distributed power source (DG) access power distribution network, power network becomes the network that power supply is connected with load point more than one, distribution
Deep change will all occur for the structure and the method for operation of system.Therefore, how to consider this in reliability evaluation
The influence of new system architecture and the method for operation, and how to consider that distributed power source itself is exerted oneself the influence of fluctuation, it is to work as
Research focus in preceding Model in Reliability Evaluation of Power Systems field.
By analysis it can be found that traditional analysis method considers failure generation, Fault Isolation reparation and load power
The randomness of fluctuation, influence of the randomness to distribution network reliability while consideration DG exerts oneself, using the desired value of reliability index
The reliability of sign system, can not fully reflect the fluctuation and uncertainty of active power distribution network only by expectation description；Together
When, existing method, in order to embody randomness diversity, is taken out in power supply reliability after calculating failure using to DG and load sequential
The method processing of sample, with it is same when discontinuity surface data from the sample survey carries out balancing the load, multiple sampling is tried to achieve reliability and expected, so
Computational accuracy will be influenceed by the sampling interval.In the case of at this stage, how randomness and fluctuation containing distributed power source are entered
Row analysis, sets up suitable probabilistic reliability evaluation system, to evaluating reliability of distribution network important.
In traditional reliability evaluation, according to the characteristics of power distribution network " closed loop design, open loop operation ", normally
Power network is only powered by single power supply to load point during operation.When system interior element breaks down, in the load of fault feeder section
Point is because line powering is interrupted and causes to have a power failure, and the load point after fault feeder section is needed by determining whether there is connection
Can whether network or contact spare capacity be sufficient, and then draw and restore electricity.But after DG access distribution systems, network then becomes one
The structure that individual many power supplys are connected with load point, the basic characteristic of power distribution network is changed, and this is commented to the reliability of distribution system
Estimate process and bring many new influences and problem.
Most significantly affecting for distributed power source is not only only that deep become is occurred for the method for operation for causing distribution system by it
Change, but the uncertainties of DG in itself also have a major impact to power distribution network.Also DG outage model is included in fail-safe analysis,
Consider influence of the DG failures to system.As source element, DG outage model is more complicated than two state models, so DG
Access can be significantly increased state of electric distribution network scale, and the complexity and amount of calculation of fail-safe analysis increase therewith.
In addition, in order to reduce negative effect of the distributed power source to power network, different classes of distributed power source, energy storage are filled
Put, load and corresponding control device are linked into power distribution network, be to play distributed electrical source efficiency in terms of Perspective of Energy angle
Most effective mode.So, it is actually that the reliability evaluation containing distributed power source is asked to the reliability assessment of microgrid
The extension of topic, needs also exist for paying attention to.Thus more need new processing method and analysis means.
Therefore, the reliability estimation method that probability problem is considered based on analytic method is built, is practical problem urgently to be resolved hurrily,
With good application value and construction value.
The content of the invention
The technical problems to be solved by the invention are to provide a kind of to calculate the distribution class probability decision related to user
The distribution system probabilistic reliability appraisal procedure based on analytic method of property index.
The technical solution adopted in the present invention is：A kind of distribution system probabilistic reliability appraisal procedure based on analytic method,
Comprise the following steps：
1) distribution net work structure is inputted, includes each component information, line length, each load position and each load peak, break
Road device and disconnecting switch position, power distribution network communication relationship, carry out multidomain treat-ment to each several part in power distribution network, set up fault mode shadow
Ring analysis Table storehouse；Simulation step length is set as 1h, total simulated time N, N is positive integer；Set up blower fan power output, photovoltaic generation
The time series data sequence of system output power and each load power, it is 100% charged shape to initialize each energy storage device original state
The reliability index probability description matrix W of state, initialization power off time and scarce deliverykFor 1；
2) initialization simulation clock is 0, the random number between m 0-1 is randomly generated, according in each element state model
Crash rate parameter lambda try to achieve m non-failure operation time TTF, use TTFiRepresent the non-failure operation time of i-th of element；Look for
Go out the non-failure operation time TTF of minimumi, a random number is produced to i-th of element, according to i-th of element repair rate parameter μ
Try to achieve fault correction time TTRi；At the same time, Fault Isolation time ST and Fault Isolation are produced and turns band time SRT with load,
And simulation clock is advanced to the non-failure operation time TTF of i-th of elementi；
3) Failure Mode Effective Analysis Table storehouse is inquired about, classification belonging to each cell is determined, judges whether cell forms isolated island, it is right
The cell for forming isolated island calculates the probability point of power off time and the scarce delivery of load using the computational methods of isolated island probabilistic reliability
Cloth；Cell for not forming isolated island, determines that power off time and load lack power supply using the time series data sequence of load power
The probability distribution of amount.
4) the energy storage device state-of-charge probability distribution obtained according to the computational methods of isolated island probabilistic reliability, sets up distribution
The state sampling of energy storage device, return to step 2 when net is normally run) until reaching total simulated time N of setting；
5) the probability distribution probability of the reliability index of each load point single failure in distribution net work structure is overlapped,
Calculate the probabilistic reliability index of each load point and system.
Step 1) described in in power distribution network each several part carry out multidomain treat-ment, setting up Failure Mode Effective Analysis Table storehouse is,
Power distribution network after a certain section failure of establishing power network first, failure is divided into following 6 regions：
(1) faulty section refers to all load power failures, power off time in fault element place feeder line area, the faulty section
For the repair time of fault element；
(2) upstream isolated area is positioned at the upstream in fault feeder area, the feeder line area being connected with feeder line area by non-breaker, on
Trip isolated area has a power failure after a failure, is restored electricity after Fault Isolation, and power off time is the Fault Isolation time；
(3) refer to without the zone of influence and be connected with faulty section or upstream isolated area by breaker, and with the main electricity of active distribution system
Load point in the connected feeder line area in source, no influence is not influenceed by element fault, therefore is not had a power failure；
(4) the seamless isolated island area in upstream refers to by breaker be connected with faulty section or upstream isolated area, and includes distribution
The feeder line area of power supply；Timely action of the formation of active isolated island dependent on the seamless isolated island area outlet breaker in upstream, islet operation
Time is the Fault Isolation time, and whether load point has a power failure and power off time power balance situation in island is determined, after Fault Isolation,
Upstream is seamless, and isolated island area accesses distribution system again；
(5) isolation isolated island area in downstream refers to positioned at faulty section downstream, the feeder line area being connected with faulty section by non-breaker,
Before Fault Isolation, the downstream isolates all load power failures in isolated island area, until a wide range of with other downstream areas composition
Isolated island is formed, and the islet operation time is the repair time of fault element and the difference of Fault Isolation time；
(6) the seamless isolated island area in downstream refers to be located at faulty section downstream, isolates isolated island area with faulty section or downstream and passes through open circuit
The connected feeder line area of device, downstream is seamless, and isolated island area can immediately enter isolated island mode when failure occurs runs, during islet operation
Between be the Fault Isolation time, on the basis of subregion, one by one travel through power distribution network in each component information, construct correspondence specific fault
Power distribution network other region formational situations under element, set up Failure Mode Effective Analysis Table storehouse.
Step 1) described in foundation generation blower fan power output sequence be by wind speed v approximately using Weibull distribution describe,
It is located in view of most of the time wind speed between incision wind speed and rated wind speed, then blower fan power output PwProbability density function
It is expressed as with following formula：
In formula：K and C are the shape and scale parameter of wind speed Weibull distribution respectively；Coefficient a=Prvci/(vci-vr), b=
Pr/(vr-vci), PrIt is the rated output power of blower fan, vci,vrIt is the incision wind speed and rated wind speed of blower fan respectively.
Step 1) described in photovoltaic power generation system output power sequence of setting up be to use following manner：
According to the power output P of photovoltaic generating systemsImitated with intensity of illumination I, photovoltaic battery array area S and opto-electronic conversion
Relation between rate η, i.e. photovoltaic power generation system output power Ps=IS η, if intensity of illumination I obeys beta in certain period of time
It is distributed, the probability density for obtaining photovoltaic generating system is：
In formula：Ps,maxFor the peak power output of photovoltaic array；α, β are the form parameter of intensity of illumination beta distribution.
Step 1) described in each load power sequence of setting up be to use following manner：
It is superimposed according to different time dimension typical load curve, obtains the time series data sequence L of load powert=Lp×Pw
×Pd×Ph(t), LpBy research load point annual maximum, PwFor in year corresponding with t-th hour-week load curve
Value, PdFor the value in week-daily load curve corresponding with t-th hour, Ph(t) for it is corresponding with t-th hour -when it is negative
Value in lotus curve.
Step 3) described in isolated island probabilistic reliability computational methods, comprise the following steps：
(1) the isolated island cell formed is determined, distribution net work structure and relevant parameter in isolated island cell is read；
(2) according to the power sequence of blower fan power output, photovoltaic system power output and load point, the isolated island formation phase is set up
The probability Distribution Model of interior stochastic variable；According to the charge and discharge cycles of energy storage before failure, determine that the isolated island moment forms energy storage lotus
The probability distribution of electricity condition；
(3) each rank central moment of each stochastic variable is asked for by the Monte Carlo methods of sampling；
(4) 3 estimation points are chosen in each stochastic variable, position and the weight of estimation point is calculated, the estimation of the rank of n × 3 is formed
Point group matrix and weight coefficient matrix；
(5) reliability index under each estimation point group value is calculated one by one；
(6) form the valuation matrix of each load reliability index and energy storage charge state, calculated load reliability index and
Each rank moment of the orign of energy storage charge state；
(7) each rank central moment of target stochastic variable is calculated, Gram-Charlier series expansions is used, obtains islet operation
At the end of each load point reliability index and the probability distribution of energy storage charge state.
Step 4) described in energy storage device state sampling include two parts：One is taking out for the running status of energy storage device
Sample, two be the sampling of the state-of-charge of energy storage device；Wherein, the methods of sampling of energy storage device running status is batteries string
Parallel combination into various power combinations be ranked up, put in order after normalized in [0,1] is interval, and then produce one
[0,1] interval random number, determines energy storage device running status, the sampling of state-of-charge is by producing a random number, root
According to the distribution situation of different energy storage device state-of-charges, random number is converted into the value of corresponding state-of-charge.
Step 5) described in each load point of calculating and the probabilistic reliability of system refer to calibration method and be：Obtaining each load point
After reliability index probability distribution after primary fault, if X and Y represent same load point twice in the case of different faults can
By property index probability distribution, then the probability density function for having Z=X+Y is written as
The probabilistic reliability index of each load point and system is obtained according to the method for convolution algorithm.
A kind of distribution system probabilistic reliability appraisal procedure based on analytic method of the present invention, have studied distributed power source and connects
Enter the Failure Mode Effective Analysis process of rear distribution system, by classifying to network system, and using point estimations analysis
Power off time and scarce delivery in isolated island.To blower fan, photovoltaic, batteries decile on the premise of higher level's power supply capacity is sufficient
The state of cloth power supply carries out point estimations sampling, can reflect the randomness and fluctuation of distributed power source, and ensuring
Analog rate is improved while certain calculation accuracy, comprehensively reflects grid condition.
Brief description of the drawings
Fig. 1 is two state models of non-source element；
Fig. 2 is three condition element sampling schematic diagram；
Fig. 3 is cycle discharge and recharge strategy storage battery charge state situation of change；
Fig. 4 is the IEEE-RBTS distribution network systems of transformation；
Fig. 5 is active power distribution network probabilistic reliability estimation flow figure；
Fig. 6 is active power distribution network probabilistic reliability estimation flow figure isolated island evaluation part；
Fig. 7 a are No. 13 load point APOD probability density function figures in Fig. 4；
Fig. 7 b are No. 13 load point AENS probability density function figures in Fig. 4.
Embodiment
A kind of distribution system probabilistic reliability based on analytic method of the present invention is assessed with reference to embodiment and accompanying drawing
Method is described in detail.
A kind of distribution system probabilistic reliability appraisal procedure based on analytic method of the present invention is related to user for calculating
Distribution class probabilistic reliability index.And the concept in feeder line area is combined, distribution system after distributed power source access is have studied
Failure Mode Effective Analysis process, network system is classified, and remain lonely using didactic load cutting method
Power balance in island.On the premise of higher level's power supply capacity is sufficient to blower fan, photovoltaic, batteries distributed power supply shape
State carries out point estimations sampling, can improve analog rate while certain calculation accuracy is ensured.
The fault impact classification chart of system is established, after have found the feeder line area included by every class fault zone, system
The power-off condition of internal loading point just can according to the affiliated fault zone in feeder line area where each load point it is different respectively minute
Analysis.For faulty section, without the load point in the zone of influence and the class region of upstream isolated area three, its power-off condition can be determined directly：
The power off time of load point is fault correction time in faulty section；Do not have a power failure without the load point in the zone of influence；In the isolated area of upstream
The power off time of load point is the Fault Isolation time.And it is seamless for the seamless isolated island area in upstream, downstream isolation isolated island area and downstream
Isolated island area, the power balance that its power-off condition is depended in isolated island, it is impossible to directly determine.If distributed power source is total in isolated island
Exert oneself more than total load, then the load point in island will not have a power failure；And if in isolated island distributed power source undercapacity, just need
Carry out load reduction.
Distributed power source is handled using point estimations, while utilizing cumulative distribution function and probability density function energy
The probabilistic statistical characteristicses of complete description stochastic variable.But in some practical problems, it is difficult to determine or is not required to determine random change
The definite probability distribution (PDF or CDF) of amount, only can make analysis with its some numerical characteristic.The basic thought of point estimations
It is to select discrete estimation point in known continuous random variable according to certain principle, the estimation point formation of multiple random variables is estimated
Enumeration group, the numerical characteristic of output variable to be asked is estimated using these discrete estimation point groups, such as expectation, variance and each rank square
Deng.
By function y=h (x) in μxNearby carry out Taylor expansion
Note y's is desired for μy, can be obtained by above formula：
Further can in the hope of point estimations selected point specific weight.Same provable, y high-order moment of the orign also can use
Similar approach is calculated, and formula is as follows
Further genralrlization is into the function of many variables, the calculation formula of each rank moment of the orign
On this basis, each stochastic variable is handled.Load point Calculation of Reliability can pass through following non-linear letter
Number is represented：
Y=h (x)=h (x1,x2,…,xn) (5)
Wherein y is that m ties up target stochastic variable, ykRepresent the POD or ENS of each load point, or isolated island finish time energy storage
The SOC of device；X is n dimension input stochastic variables, xkRepresent that wind speed, light intensity, the isolated island of certain node form moment energy storage charge state
Or payload.For there is k1Individual load, k2Fans, k3Group photovoltaic and k4The isolated island of group energy storage device, has
If xkExpectation, standard deviation, v ranks moment of the orign and central moment be respectively μk、σk、αk,vAnd βk,v.These inputs are random to be become
The numerical characteristic of amount can be asked for by the probabilistic model to DG and load and energy storage device model sampling.
In each stochastic variable xk(k=1,2 ..., n) on choose 3 estimation points, be denoted as xk,1、xk,2And xk,3, expression formula
For
xk,i=μk+ξk,iσk, i=1,2,3 (7)
ξ is measured in position in formulak,iExpression formula be
Wherein λk,3And λk,4Respectively stochastic variable xkThe coefficient of skewness and coefficient of kurtosis, can be by σkAnd βk,vCalculate.
It can see by formula (8), 3 estimation points that each stochastic variable is taken are respectively mean variable value and its left and right neighborhood
Interior two points for determining distance, this 3 specified points can be used as to the stochastic variable probability distribution situation such as wind speed, light intensity, load
Estimation.
N dimension input stochastic variables have n × 3 estimation point.By the estimation point of each stochastic variable respectively with its dependent variable
Expect to be combined into estimation point group, can form the rank estimation point group matrix X of n × 3, matrix element is
Xk,i=[μ1,μ2,...,μk-1,xk,i,μk+1,...,μn], i=1,2,3 (9)
Meanwhile, with each estimation point (group) to that should have certain weight coefficient, weight coefficient represents stochastic variable probability point
The probability size of the point is taken as in cloth, ξ can be measured by the position of each estimation pointk,iCalculate.Correspondence estimation point group matrix X, generates n
× 3 rank weight coefficient matrix P, matrix element is
Obtain after estimation point group, it is believed that each stochastic variable is taken as determination value by this estimation point group in during isolated island, according to
Blower fan photovoltaic is exerted oneself, payload and energy storage charge status, and strategy is cut down with reference to load, carries out balancing the load, and then calculate
Load point reliability under the determination value.The probabilistic reliability of stochastic variable will thus be calculated and be converted into multiple estimation points
The determination Calculation of Reliability of group.
Use ylRepresent the POD or ENS, h of certain load pointlBalancing the load and the Calculation of Reliability process of this load point are represented, then
Certain estimation point group Xk,iLoad point reliability valuation under value is yl=hl(Xk,i), to each element in estimation point group matrix X one by one
Calculated, form the rank valuation matrix of n × 3.Then ylV ranks moment of the orign can be expressed as
The general of reliability index or energy storage SOC can be calculated by each rank moment of the orign by deploying series using Gram-Charlier
Rate density function and cumulative distribution function.ylStandardized random variableProbability density function be
Deploy the coefficient C of series in formulaiIt is on βk,vMultinomial, can be by formula (3-38).It is rightCarry out corresponding reactionary slogan, anti-communist poster
Standardization is converted, you can obtain reliability index or energy storage SOC probability density function f (yl), complete this isolated island probability decision
Property calculate.
As shown in figure 5, a kind of distribution system probabilistic reliability appraisal procedure based on analytic method of the present invention, is specifically included
Following steps：
1) distribution net work structure is inputted, includes each component information, line length, each load position and each load peak, break
Road device and disconnecting switch position, power distribution network communication relationship, carry out multidomain treat-ment to each several part in power distribution network, set up fault mode shadow
Ring analysis (FMEA) Table storehouse；Simulation step length is set as 1h, total simulated time N, N is positive integer；Set up blower fan power output, light
The time series data sequence of photovoltaic generating system power output and each load power, it is 100% to initialize each energy storage device original state
The reliability index probability description matrix W of state-of-charge, initialization power off time and scarce deliverykFor 1；Wherein,
Described carries out multidomain treat-ment to each several part in power distribution network, and setting up Failure Mode Effective Analysis (FMEA) Table storehouse is,
Power distribution network after a certain section failure of establishing power network first, failure can be divided into following 6 regions：
(1) faulty section refers to all load power failures, power off time in fault element place feeder line area, the faulty section
For the repair time of fault element；
(2) upstream isolated area is positioned at the upstream in fault feeder area, the feeder line area being connected with feeder line area by non-breaker, on
Trip isolated area has a power failure after a failure, is restored electricity after Fault Isolation, and power off time is the Fault Isolation time；
(3) refer to without the zone of influence and be connected with faulty section or upstream isolated area by breaker, and with the main electricity of active distribution system
Load point in the connected feeder line area in source (bus), no influence is not influenceed by element fault, therefore is not had a power failure；
(4) the seamless isolated island area in upstream refers to by breaker be connected with faulty section or upstream isolated area, and includes distribution
The feeder line area of power supply；Timely action of the formation of active isolated island dependent on the seamless isolated island area outlet breaker in upstream, islet operation
Time is the Fault Isolation time, and whether load point has a power failure and power off time power balance situation in island is determined, after Fault Isolation,
Upstream is seamless, and isolated island area can access distribution system again；
(5) isolation isolated island area in downstream refers to positioned at faulty section downstream, the feeder line area being connected with faulty section by non-breaker,
Before Fault Isolation, the downstream isolates all load power failures in isolated island area, until a wide range of with other downstream areas composition
Isolated island is formed, and the islet operation time is the repair time of fault element and the difference of Fault Isolation time；
(6) the seamless isolated island area in downstream refers to be located at faulty section downstream, isolates isolated island area with faulty section or downstream and passes through open circuit
The connected feeder line area of device, downstream is seamless, and isolated island area can immediately enter isolated island mode when failure occurs runs, during islet operation
Between be the Fault Isolation time, on the basis of subregion, one by one travel through power distribution network in each component information, construct correspondence specific fault
Power distribution network other region formational situations under element, set up Failure Mode Effective Analysis Table storehouse.
Existing research thinks that wind speed has statistical property, and generally positive skewness is distributed, the function for describing wind speed profile
Or curve is more, wherein Weibull and normal distribution are widely used.Described foundation generation blower fan power output sequence is to adopt
Use following manner：Wind speed v is approximately described using Weibull distribution, it is contemplated that most of the time wind speed is located at incision wind speed and volume
Determine between wind speed, then blower fan power output PwProbability density function approximately can be expressed as with following formula：
In formula：K and C are the shape and scale parameter of wind speed Weibull distribution respectively；Coefficient a=Prvci/(vci-vr), b=
Pr/(vr-vci), PrIt is the rated output power of blower fan, vci,vrIt is the incision wind speed and rated wind speed of blower fan respectively.
Described photovoltaic power generation system output power sequence of setting up is：According to the power output P of photovoltaic generating systemsWith light
According to the relation between intensity I, photovoltaic battery array area S and photoelectric transformation efficiency η, i.e. photovoltaic power generation system output power Ps=
IS η, if intensity of illumination I is approximate in certain period of time to obey beta distribution, the probability density for obtaining photovoltaic generating system is：
In formula：Ps,maxFor the peak power output of photovoltaic array；α, β are the form parameter of intensity of illumination beta distribution.
Described each load power sequence of setting up is to use following manner：It is folded according to different time dimension typical load curve
Plus, obtain the time series data sequence L of load powert=Lp×Pw×Pd×Ph(t), LpBy research load point whole year it is maximum
Value, PwFor the value in year corresponding with t-th hour-week load curve, PdFor week-daily load curve corresponding with t-th hour
In value, Ph(t) for it is corresponding with t-th hour -when load curve in value.
2) initialization simulation clock is 0, the random number between m 0-1 is randomly generated, according in each element state model
Crash rate parameter lambda try to achieve m non-failure operation time TTF, use TTFiRepresent the non-failure operation time of i-th of element；Look for
Go out the non-failure operation time TTF of minimumi, a random number is produced to i-th of element, according to i-th of element repair rate parameter μ
Try to achieve fault correction time TTRi；At the same time, Fault Isolation time ST and Fault Isolation are produced and turns band time SRT with load,
And simulation clock is advanced to the non-failure operation time TTF of i-th of elementi；
3) Failure Mode Effective Analysis (FMEA) Table storehouse is inquired about, classification belonging to each cell is determined, judges whether cell forms
Isolated island, calculates power off time using the computational methods of isolated island probabilistic reliability to the cell for forming isolated island and load lacks delivery
Probability distribution；Cell for not forming isolated island, power off time and load are determined using the time series data sequence of load power
Lack the probability distribution of delivery.
The computational methods of described isolated island probabilistic reliability, flow as shown in Figure 6 comprises the following steps：
(1) the isolated island cell formed is determined, distribution net work structure and relevant parameter in isolated island cell is read；
(2) according to the power sequence of blower fan power output, photovoltaic system power output and load point, the isolated island formation phase is set up
The probability Distribution Model of interior stochastic variable；According to the charge and discharge cycles of energy storage before failure, determine that the isolated island moment forms energy storage lotus
The probability distribution of electricity condition；
(3) each rank central moment of each stochastic variable is asked for by the Monte Carlo methods of sampling；
(4) 3 estimation points are chosen in each stochastic variable, position and the weight of estimation point is calculated, the estimation of the rank of n × 3 is formed
Point group matrix and weight coefficient matrix；
(5) reliability index under each estimation point group value is calculated one by one；
(6) form the valuation matrix of each load reliability index and energy storage charge state, calculated load reliability index and
Each rank moment of the orign of energy storage charge state；
(7) each rank central moment of target stochastic variable is calculated, Gram-Charlier series expansions is used, obtains islet operation
At the end of each load point reliability index and the probability distribution of energy storage charge state.
4) the energy storage device state-of-charge probability distribution obtained according to the computational methods of isolated island probabilistic reliability, sets up distribution
The state sampling of energy storage device, return to step 2 when net is normally run) until reaching total simulated time N of setting；
The state sampling of described energy storage device includes two parts：One is the sampling of the running status of energy storage device, and two are
The sampling of the state-of-charge of energy storage device；Because the energy storage device in each distributed power source is also by multiple battery connection in series-parallel
Form, wherein, the methods of sampling of energy storage device running status is that the various power combinations that batteries connection in series-parallel is combined into are entered
Put in order after row sequence, normalized in [0,1] is interval, and then produce one [0,1] interval random number, determine that energy storage is filled
Running status is put, as shown in Fig. 2 drop volume running status represents the failure of part battery.The sampling of state-of-charge, is by production
A raw random number, according to the distribution situation of different energy storage device state-of-charges, corresponding state-of-charge is converted into by random number
Value.
5) the probability distribution probability of the reliability index of each load point single failure in distribution net work structure is overlapped,
Calculate the probabilistic reliability index of each load point and system.
Described each load point of calculating and the probabilistic reliability of system, which refer to calibration method, is：Obtaining the once event of each load point
After reliability index probability distribution after barrier, if X and Y represent same load point, the reliability twice in the case of different faults refers to
Mark probability distribution, then the probability density function for having Z=X+Y can be written as
The probabilistic reliability index of each load point and system is obtained according to the method for convolution algorithm.
The present invention a kind of distribution system probabilistic reliability appraisal procedure based on analytic method in, probabilistic reliability calculate with
The stochastic variables such as wind speed, illumination, load and energy storage SOC are as input condition, with the reliability index of isolated island load and isolated island knot
Energy storage SOC etc., as target variable, is stochastic variable nonlinear conversion processes more than one during beam.Probability decision based on point estimation
Property computational methods, estimation point is chosen to input stochastic variable, estimation point group and corresponding valuation weight matrix is formed；Pass through Gram-
Charlier expansion series obtains the probabilistic reliability index of isolated island internal loading.
Under the premise of herein, the heuristic load that can be formulated in isolated island cuts down strategy：
1) assume first that all loads can be supplied, calculate each total delivery of load point during isolated island；
2) if DG exerts oneself can not meet existing workload demand with current energy storage EIAJ sum, current power supply is cut down negative
The minimum load of total delivery during isolated island in lotus, will be cut in load and cuts down the time that moment to isolated island terminates being designated as Tcut, and
Into step 3), otherwise into step 4)；
3) power balance calculating, repeat step (2) are carried out again, until meeting formula (5-9)；
4) changed according to energy storage SOC, constantly carry out judging in step (2), until isolated island terminates.
Model is cut down according to heuristic load, during isolated island can be calculated in be cut in successively with battery discharging
Load and its reduction moment, so as to calculate the POD and ENS of each load point.
MATLAB is the business mathematics software that MathWorks companies of the U.S. produce, and is one and can be used for algorithm development, data
The advanced techniques computational language and interactive environment of visualization, data analysis and numerical computations.The present invention is using MATLAB as base
Plinth, realizes the Distribution Network Reliability assessment models accessed containing distributed power source, and the present invention is applied wherein, and to scheme
Checking is tested to application effect based on IEEE RBTS power distribution network standard examples shown in 4.
Analyzed using the multiple-limb feeder line in the IEEE RBTS Bus6 of transformation as example.Improved system is as schemed
Shown in 4, including 1 section of bus, 30 feeder line sections, 26 nodes, 23 distribution transformings, 23 load points (LP1 to LP23), 5 distributions
Formula power supply, some breakers and disconnecting switch, no fuse.Each distributed power source includes that same model blower fan is some, 1 photovoltaic
Array and 1 batteries, design parameter are as follows.
1) blower fan：Separate unit blower fan rated power 335kW；Cut wind speed 2.5m/s；Rated wind speed 12.5m/s；Cut-out wind speed
25m/s；Fitting parameter A, B, C are respectively -39.58,6.37,2.02；Mean wind speed is 19.56m/s, and wind speed profile standard deviation is
10.06m/s。
2) photovoltaic array：Parameter RcAnd GstdRespectively 0.15kW/m2And 1kW/m2。
3) battery：Every piece of battery rating 3000Ah, rated voltage 2V (6kWh)；Parameter c=0.317, α=1,
K=1.22, ηc=ηd=0.927, Imax=610A.
4) element failure rate：Feeder fault rate is 0.065 times/year × km, and distribution transforming fault rate is 0.015 times/year, switch event
Barrier rate is 0.006 times/year, and mean repair time is 5h, obeys exponential distribution.Fault Isolation takes constant with the load turn band time
Value 1h.As shown in Table 1 and Table 2, the number of users of each load point is 1 family for each feeder line segment length and each load point peak value.Separate unit
Fan trouble state probability Pd=7.3%；Photovoltaic array is identical with the state model parameter of batteries, malfunction probability Pd
=3.2%, drop volume state probability Pe=5%.
The feeder line segment length of table 1
| Length (km) | Feeder line section sequence number |
| 0.6 | 7,13 |
| 0.75 | 9,27 |
| 0.8 | 21 |
| 0.9 | 4,10 |
| 1.6 | 3,5,8,15,20,28 |
| 2.5 | 2,6,18,23,26 |
| 2.8 | 1,12,16,22,25,30 |
| 3.2 | 11,17,19,24,29 |
| 3.5 | 14 |
The load data of table 2
| Load point sequence number | Load peak (kW) | Load point sequence number | Load peak (kW) |
| 1,6 | 360.1 | 7,23 | 796.2 |
| 2 | 380.6 | 8,11,14,19 | 337.6 |
| 3,13,17 | 653.4 | 9,21 | 737.4 |
| 4,18 | 686.4 | 10,12,16,22 | 340.9 |
| 5 | 434.7 | 15,20 | 501.8 |
Result of calculation shows that, for the load point of formation isolated island cell, its APOD and AENS show certain fluctuation
Property, some load point is for example chosen, its APOD and AENS probability density function image are as shown in Figure 7；For orphan can not be formed
The load point of island cell, its APOD is determination value, and AENS probability distribution situation is similar with Fig. 7.It can be seen that, single load point
Reliability index the approximate Normal Distribution of probability distribution.Because the electric estimation technique chooses 3 estimations to every n-dimensional random variable n
Point, only meter and the rank of each stochastic variable 5 and following central moment, therefore when using Gram-Charlier series expansions in calculating
The distribution of reliability index true probability can not be simulated completely, occur in that the situation that local probability is negative value.
Claims (4)
1. a kind of distribution system probabilistic reliability appraisal procedure based on analytic method, it is characterised in that comprise the following steps：
1) distribution net work structure is inputted, includes each component information, line length, each load position and each load peak, breaker
And disconnecting switch position, power distribution network communication relationship, by 6 regions of power distribution network, multidomain treat-ment is carried out to each region in power distribution network, built
Vertical Failure Mode Effective Analysis Table storehouse；Simulation step length is set as 1h, total simulated time N, N is positive integer；Set up blower fan output
The time series data sequence of power, photovoltaic power generation system output power and each load power, initializes each energy storage device original state
For 100% state-of-charge, the reliability index probability description matrix W of initialization power off time and scarce deliverykFor 1；
Described foundation generation blower fan power output sequence is approximately to describe wind speed v using Weibull distribution, it is contemplated that big portion
Wind speed is located between incision wind speed and rated wind speed between timesharing, then blower fan power output PwProbability density function represented with following formula
For：
In formula：K and C are the shape and scale parameter of wind speed Weibull distribution respectively；Coefficient a=Prvci/(vci-vr), b=Pr/
(vr-vci), PrIt is the rated output power of blower fan, vci,vrIt is the incision wind speed and rated wind speed of blower fan respectively；
Described photovoltaic power generation system output power sequence of setting up is to use following manner：
According to the power output P of photovoltaic generating systemsWith intensity of illumination I, photovoltaic battery array area S and photoelectric transformation efficiency η it
Between relation, i.e. photovoltaic power generation system output power Ps=IS η, if intensity of illumination I obeys beta distribution in certain period of time,
The probability density for obtaining photovoltaic generating system is：
In formula：Ps,maxFor the peak power output of photovoltaic array；α, β are the form parameter of intensity of illumination beta distribution；
2) initialization simulation clock is 0, the random number between m 0-1 is randomly generated, according to the mistake in each element state model
Efficiency parameters λ tries to achieve m non-failure operation time TTF, uses TTFiRepresent the non-failure operation time of i-th of element；Find out most
Small non-failure operation time TTFi, a random number is produced to i-th of element, tried to achieve according to i-th of element repair rate parameter μ
Fault correction time TTRi；At the same time, Fault Isolation time ST and Fault Isolation are produced and turns band time SRT with load, and will
Simulation clock is advanced to the non-failure operation time TTF of i-th of elementi；
3) Failure Mode Effective Analysis Table storehouse is inquired about, classification belonging to each cell is determined, judges whether cell forms isolated island, to being formed
The cell of isolated island calculates power off time using the computational methods of isolated island probabilistic reliability and load lacks the probability distribution of delivery；It is right
In the cell for not forming isolated island, determine that power off time and load lack the general of delivery using the time series data sequence of load power
Rate is distributed；
4) the energy storage device state-of-charge probability distribution obtained according to the computational methods of isolated island probabilistic reliability, is setting up power distribution network just
The state sampling of energy storage device, return to step 2 when often running) until reaching total simulated time N of setting；
The state sampling of described energy storage device includes two parts：One is the sampling of the running status of energy storage device, and two be energy storage
The sampling of the state-of-charge of device；Wherein, the methods of sampling of energy storage device running status is that batteries connection in series-parallel is combined into
Various power combinations be ranked up, put in order after normalized in [0,1] is interval, and then it is interval to produce one [0,1]
Random number, determines energy storage device running status, the sampling of state-of-charge is by producing a random number, according to different energy storage
The distribution situation of device state-of-charge, random number is converted into the value of corresponding state-of-charge；
5) the probability distribution probability of the reliability index of each load point single failure in distribution net work structure is overlapped, calculated
The probabilistic reliability index of each load point and system；
Described each load point of calculating and the probabilistic reliability of system, which refer to calibration method, is：After each load point primary fault is obtained
Reliability index probability distribution after, if X and Y represent same load point, the reliability index twice in the case of different faults is general
Rate is distributed, then the probability density function for having Z=X+Y is written as
The probabilistic reliability index of each load point and system is obtained according to the method for convolution algorithm.
2. a kind of distribution system probabilistic reliability appraisal procedure based on analytic method according to claim 1, its feature exists
In step 1) described in power distribution network in each several part carry out multidomain treat-ment, it is to set first to set up Failure Mode Effective Analysis Table storehouse
Power distribution network after a certain section failure of power distribution network, failure is divided into following 6 regions：
(1) all load power failures in feeder line area, the faulty section where faulty section refers to fault element, power off time is event
Hinder the repair time of element；
(2) upstream isolated area be located at fault feeder area upstream, the feeder line area being connected with feeder line area by non-breaker, upstream every
Have a power failure after a failure from area, restored electricity after Fault Isolation, power off time is the Fault Isolation time；
(3) refer to without the zone of influence and be connected with faulty section or upstream isolated area by breaker, and with active distribution system main power source phase
Load point in feeder line area even, no influence is not influenceed by element fault, therefore is not had a power failure；
(4) the seamless isolated island area in upstream refers to by breaker be connected with faulty section or upstream isolated area, and includes distributed power source
Feeder line area；Timely action of the formation of active isolated island dependent on the seamless isolated island area outlet breaker in upstream, islet operation time
For the Fault Isolation time, whether load point has a power failure and power off time power balance situation in island is determined, after Fault Isolation, upstream
Seamless isolated island area accesses distribution system again；
(5) isolation isolated island area in downstream refers to be located at faulty section downstream, the feeder line area by non-breaker being connected with faulty section, failure
Before isolation, the downstream isolates all load power failures in isolated island area, until a wide range of isolated island constituted with other downstream areas
Formed, the islet operation time is the repair time of fault element and the difference of Fault Isolation time；
(6) the seamless isolated island area in downstream refers to be located at faulty section downstream, isolates isolated island area with faulty section or downstream and passes through breaker phase
Feeder line area even, downstream is seamless, and isolated island area can immediately enter isolated island mode when failure occurs runs, and the islet operation time is
The Fault Isolation time, on the basis of subregion, each component information in power distribution network is traveled through one by one, construct correspondence specific fault element
Under power distribution network other region formational situations, set up Failure Mode Effective Analysis Table storehouse.
3. a kind of distribution system probabilistic reliability appraisal procedure based on analytic method according to claim 1, its feature exists
In step 1) described in each load power sequence of setting up be to use following manner：
It is superimposed according to different time dimension typical load curve, obtains the time series data sequence L of load powert=Lp×Pw×Pd
×Ph(t), LpBy research load point annual maximum, PwFor the value in year corresponding with t-th hour-week load curve,
PdFor the value in week-daily load curve corresponding with t-th hour, Ph(t) for it is corresponding with t-th hour -when load curve
In value.
4. a kind of distribution system probabilistic reliability appraisal procedure based on analytic method according to claim 1, its feature exists
In step 3) described in isolated island probabilistic reliability computational methods, comprise the following steps：
(1) the isolated island cell formed is determined, distribution net work structure and relevant parameter in isolated island cell is read；
(2) according to the power sequence of blower fan power output, photovoltaic system power output and load point, set up in during isolated island formation
The probability Distribution Model of stochastic variable；According to the charge and discharge cycles of energy storage before failure, determine that the isolated island moment forms the charged shape of energy storage
Probability of state is distributed；
(3) each rank central moment of each stochastic variable is asked for by the Monte Carlo methods of sampling；
(4) 3 estimation points are chosen in each stochastic variable, position and the weight of estimation point is calculated, forms the rank estimation point group of n × 3
Matrix and weight coefficient matrix；
(5) reliability index under each estimation point group value is calculated one by one；
(6) the valuation matrix of each load reliability index and energy storage charge state, calculated load reliability index and energy storage are formed
Each rank moment of the orign of state-of-charge；
(7) each rank central moment of target stochastic variable is calculated, Gram-Charlier series expansions is used, obtains islet operation and terminate
When each load point reliability index and the probability distribution of energy storage charge state.
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