CN103425619B - Prove without epidemic disease or the amount of sampling computer of discovery epidemic disease - Google Patents
Prove without epidemic disease or the amount of sampling computer of discovery epidemic disease Download PDFInfo
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- CN103425619B CN103425619B CN201310392690.5A CN201310392690A CN103425619B CN 103425619 B CN103425619 B CN 103425619B CN 201310392690 A CN201310392690 A CN 201310392690A CN 103425619 B CN103425619 B CN 103425619B
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Abstract
The present invention relates to a kind of computer proved in epidemic disease control without epidemic disease or the sample size finding epidemic disease, this computer includes input module, amount of sampling computing module and display module.Described computing module uses the sample calculation formula corresponding with sampling approach.This computer is a kind of intelligent computer, it is adaptable to professional and layman.
Description
Technical field
The present invention relates to a kind of computer, being specifically related to one proves without epidemic disease in epidemic disease control
Or find the computer of the sample size of epidemic disease.
Background technology
Field of Animal Epidemic Disease Control is a strongest job professional, technical, Field of Animal Epidemic Disease Control policy
Formulation, prevention and control goal, prevention and control planning, control plan and control measure formulation, enforcement, prevention and control
The basic processes such as effect assessment, not only need the support of veterinary's technology, in addition it is also necessary to bulk information support.
Animal epidemic Epidemiological study and monitoring, as collection, analytical data, the activity of acquisition information, are passed through
It is through at the whole process of Field of Animal Epidemic Disease Control.
Prove without epidemic disease or find that the purpose of epidemic disease determines that whether a group or an area exist infection, only
An example zoogenetic infection detected, it is possible to prove the existence of this area epidemic disease.If it is desired to determine one
Whether individual colony exists epidemic disease infect, the best way be by full group detection, generally this
It is infeasible for planting way.Under normal circumstances, for most animals epidemic disease, if group exists
This epidemic disease, its prevalence rate will flow in colony equal to or higher than certain minimum prevalence rate, i.e. epidemic disease
Row has one " threshold value ".Therefore, it can, based on this minimum prevalence rate, calculate and reach specific
During confidence level, at least it is able to detect that the sample number required for an animals showing positive or group, can demonstrate,prove
Bright without epidemic disease or do not find epidemic disease.
Traditional sample number calculates and is mostly manual calculation, has statistical function button in existing computer more,
But this function is common statistical function, such as read group total, square root etc., in statistics
More complicated statistical formula calculates, and needs professional very familiar to statistical formula, then uses
The computer commonly with statistical function calculates, to acquired results according to the confidence district in statistics
Between number tables be corrected.Layman is difficult to carry out this work.
Summary of the invention
For the problems referred to above, an object of the present invention is to provide the sample size of a kind of intelligence and calculates equipment,
This calculating equipment proves during being specifically designed for animal epidemic sampling survey without epidemic disease or the sample of discovery epidemic disease
The computer of amount.
It is a further object of the present invention to provide and the investigation of a kind of animal epidemic proves without epidemic disease or finds epidemic disease
The method of sampling survey, in the method, the sample size of extraction carries out calculating acquisition by above-mentioned calculating equipment.
The calculating equipment of the present invention includes input module, amount of sampling computing module and display module.The most defeated
Enter module include individual amount in the input of sampling approach, confidence level, target complex, expection prevalence rate,
Input with allowable error and the input of numeral, amount of sampling computing module is by Different Sampling Methods
Amount of sampling computing module forms.Amount of sampling computing module is provided with the input from described input module,
Go to the outfan of display module.This computer also can be powered by battery by AC-powered.
Sampling approach
Prove without epidemic disease or discovery epidemic disease sampling have two ways, one to be representative sampling, one be with
Sampling based on risk.For " infinitely " group, (i.e. total number is big, calculates sample size without shadow
Ring) and the sampling of " limited " group, it was demonstrated that without epidemic disease or find epidemic disease sample used by formula be different,
Simultaneously, it is adaptable to " limited " group sampling formula be also suitable " infinitely " group sample sample size calculating.
Representative sampling
Representative sampling refers to extract sampling unit from colony according to random principle, forms sample,
Inferring population parameter by measuring sample statistic, its principle is to ensure that each sampling unit is extracted
Probability equal.Field of Animal Epidemic Disease Control put into practice in, it was demonstrated that without epidemic disease or discovery epidemic disease typically by reality
Testing what room detection realized, at this moment proof without the sample size computing formula of epidemic disease or discovery epidemic disease is:
Wherein:
Se is the sensitivity of detection method；
N is sampling number；
CL is confidence level；
D is the animals showing positive number in group, equal to the product of number of individuals in group Yu predetermined prevalence rate,
I.e. D=N × p；
P is the predetermined prevalence rate of colony
N is number of individuals in group.
Formula 1 is not only suitable for " limited " group, is also applied for the sampling of " infinitely " group.
When individual amount is big in the group of source, infinite group can be regarded as, at this moment prove without epidemic disease or find epidemic disease
Sample size computing formula is:
Wherein:
α is acceptable error, equal to 1-confidence level (CL)；
P is predetermined prevalence rate；
Se is the sensitivity of detection method.
The sample size of risk-based calculates
The sampling of risk-based is had a mind to be more prone to sun after extraction is easier to infect or infect exactly
Property testing result unit, be used for proving without epidemic disease or find epidemic disease.For the sampling of risk-based,
It should be ensured that the sampling to each subgroup can represent this subgroup.Representative sampling is with risk as base
The basis of plinth sampling.
The sampling of risk-based, process is the same with representative survey sampling, but excellent in view of needing
First extraction excessive risk unit, needs the predetermined prevalence rate during correction samples, sample size, system
Sensitivity.In order to reach this purpose, need to obtain two extra parameters, between i.e. different subgroups
Relative risk and ratio shared in total group thereof.
Risk-based proves that infinite group without the Sample Size Calculation of epidemic disease or discovery epidemic disease is:
Wherein CL is confidence level
Se is the sensitivity of detection method
PrHFor sample medium or high risk unit proportion
PrLFor sample medium to low-risk unit proportion
P* HThe probability infected for revised excessive risk unit
P* LThe probability infected for revised low-risk unit
P* H=ARH×P*
P* L=ARL×P*
P* is total predetermined prevalence rate
ARiThe value-at-risk corrected for each subgroup；
ARi=RRi/Σ(RRi x PPri)
RRiRelative risk value for each subgroup；
PPriFor each subgroup proportion in target complex.
Σ(RRi x PPri) it is each risk group's relative risk and this risk group proportion in target complex
Seize the opportunity sum.So all can produce the Risk parameter of a correction for each risk group, use this
Individual Risk parameter is multiplied by predetermined prevalence rate, can obtain the Infection probability after this group of corrections.
Risk-based proves that finite group is without epidemic disease or the Sample Size Calculation of discovery epidemic disease:
Sample Size Calculation is formula 1, but the affected animal number D in formula is according to revised pre-constant current
Row rate calculates and obtains, i.e. D=N × (PrH×P*H+PrL×P*L), parameter therein and the ginseng in formula 3
Number is identical.
Accompanying drawing explanation
Fig. 1: be to prove without epidemic disease or the front elevation of the computer of the sample size finding epidemic disease.
Fig. 2: be to prove without epidemic disease or the block diagram of the computer schematic configuration of the sample size finding epidemic disease.
Fig. 3: be in present embodiment picture conversion schematic diagram.
Detailed description of the invention
Hereinafter, prove without epidemic disease or the calculating of the sample size of discovery epidemic disease according to the present invention with reference to accompanying drawing
Device illustrates.
Structure:
As it is shown in figure 1, computer of the present invention has input module 1 and display module 3.Described input mould
Block is made up of various buttons, and various buttons include sampling approach key, confidence level (CL) key, individuality
Quantity (N) key, expection prevalence rate (p) key, allowable error (a) key, Relative risk value (RR),
Target complex excessive risk animal accounting (PPrH) key, sample medium or high risk animal proportion (PrH) key,
Ten digital keys, decimal key (.), cancel button (UNDO) key, acknowledgement key (ENTER)
And directionkeys.
Sampling approach key: contain Different Sampling Methods and corresponding sample thereof in the data base of computer
The computing formula information of amount.Pressing this button, there is the menu of various sampling approach in display screen, passes through
Up and down arrow keys chooses a certain sampling approach, presses acknowledgement key and confirms, now computer enters this sampling
The sample size calculation procedure of method.
Confidence level (CL%) key: press this key, there is CL in display screen:, defeated by ten numeral keys
Enter corresponding confidence level, such as 95%, then input 95, press acknowledgement key and confirm.
Individual amount (N) key: press this key, there is N in display screen:, by ten numeral keys' input phases
The individual amount answered, such as 1000, then inputs 1000, presses acknowledgement key and confirms.
Expection prevalence rate (p) key: press this key, there is p in display screen:, by ten numeral keys' input phases
The expection prevalence rate answered, such as 15%, then inputs 0.15, presses acknowledgement key and confirms.
Sensitivity (Se) key: press this key, there is Se in display screen:, corresponding by the input of ten numeral keys
Sensitivity value, such as 90%, then input 90, press acknowledgement key confirm.
Relative risk value (RR) key: press this key, there is RR in display screen:, defeated by ten numeral keys
Enter corresponding Relative risk value, such as 3, then input 3, press acknowledgement key and confirm.
Target complex excessive risk animal accounting (PPrH) key: pressing this key, there is PPr in display screenH:, logical
Cross ten numeral keys and input corresponding Relative risk value, such as 20%, then input 20, press acknowledgement key and confirm.
Sample medium or high risk animal proportion (PrH) key: pressing this key, there is Pr in display screenH:,
Input corresponding Relative risk value by ten numeral keys, such as 60%, then input 60, press acknowledgement key true
Recognize.
Cancel button (UNDO) key: press this key, the data being strayed into can be deleted.
The key up and down of directionkeys realizes the scroll-up/down of menu option, and left and right scroll key realizes the display page
Advance and retrogressing.
The display screen of display module 3 correspondence shows in addition to the word or numeral pressed except corresponding various buttons,
Also showing various concrete sampling approach, user determines the sampling approach of needs by scroll key.
Function:
Below, the function composition of computer is illustrated.
Fig. 2 is the block diagram of calculator function structure, as shown in the figure, it was demonstrated that without epidemic disease or the sample of discovery epidemic disease
The computer of this amount have input unit 3, display part 4, ROM (Read only Memory) 5,
The functions such as RAM (Random Access Memory) 6 and CPU (Central Processing Unit) 7
Portion, each function part is connected by bus 9.
Input unit 3 has above-mentioned various button group, the information pressed to CPU7 input or select.
Display part 4 has above-mentioned display 2, shows in the display according to the signal from CPU7
Various information.
ROM5 preserves proves menu involved in the computer without epidemic disease or the sample size finding epidemic disease
At the computing of the concrete amount of sampling computing formula of display process or various keystroke handling and each sampling approach
Reasons etc. operate relevant various programs and for realizing the journey of the various functions that sample calculation device is had
Sequence etc..In the present embodiment, storage has the sampling sample size calculation procedure of each sampling approach, by CPU7
Read the program ROM5 from ROM5, be performed after launching in RAM6.
RAM6 is the various programs temporarily preserving and can writing CPU7 execution at any time or relates to this
The memorizer of the data etc. that a little programs perform.RAM6 such as has storage by user in the present embodiment
The information of each parameter of input or data or the operation result etc. of respective sample amount computing formula.
CPU7 and the instruction corresponding execution process based on established procedure inputted, carry out various functions portion
Instruction or the transmission of data, specifically, CPU7 according to inputted from input unit 3 operation letter
Number read the program that preserved in ROM5, perform process according to this program, thus, CPU7 to
Suitable display part 4 output is for showing the display control signal of result, and shows the aobvious of correspondence
Show information.
Specific embodiment
Operational instances 1:
Prove that a certain area does not has sheep brucellosis, it is believed that when sheep brucellosis prevalence rate is less than 0.02, both made a reservation for
Prevalence rate is P*When=0.02, will not be popular.In order to there be the assurance of 95% to prove that this area does not has sheep brucellosis
Exist, need to extract a how many sheep and detect？Assuming that sensitivity Se of detection method is 90%.As
Really this area one has 2600 sheep, needs to extract how many sheep and carries out detection proof without epidemic disease？
Below, use the flow process shown in Fig. 3 and picture conversion, sample sampling gauge is performed for CPU7
The operation example calculating device illustrates, and shows user operation in the left side of figure, in the display display of the right side of figure
Picture in screen.
Standby process was carried out before user operation button:
(1) according to the purpose selective sampling method of investigation, press sampling approach in input module by
Key, there is finite group representative sampling, infinite group representative sampling and risk-based in display screen
Sampling information；
(2) the sampling approach such as finite group representative sampling needed for being selected by scroll-up/down key, this
Time CPU bring into operation the computing formula of finite group representative sampling:
(3) confidence level key is pressed, display screen display CL:；
(4) confidence level such as 95% selected by the input of ten numeral keys, then display screen display CL:95,
Press acknowledgement key to confirm.
(5) individual amount key is pressed, display screen display N:；
(6) individual amount such as 2600 selected by the input of ten numeral keys, then display screen shows
N:2600, presses acknowledgement key and confirms；
(7) expection prevalence rate key is pressed, display screen display p:；
(8) by ten numeral keys's input expection prevalence rates such as 2%, input 0.02, then display screen shows
P:0.02, presses acknowledgement key and confirms；
(9) sensitivity value is pressed, display screen display Se:；
(10) by ten numeral keys's input corresponding sensitivity such as 90%, then input 90, show screen display
Show Se:90, press acknowledgement key and confirm, the operation result such as 161 of display display CPU7.
Example 2
For proving that a certain area does not has sheep brucellosis, study or this area's excessive risk before historical summary proof
The prevalence rate (or sickness rate) of sheep be 3 times of low-risk sheep (assuming that the relative risk of low-risk sheep is
RR=1, so relative risk RR=3 of excessive risk sheep), excessive risk sheep is proportion in this area group
It is 20%, it is believed that when sheep brucellosis prevalence rate is less than 0.02, the most predetermined prevalence rate is P*When=0.02,
Will not be popular.In order to prove that this area does not has sheep brucellosis with the presence of the assurance of 95%, need extraction how many
Sheep detects？Assuming that sensitivity Se of detection method is 90%.If this area one has 2600
Sheep, needs to extract how many sheep and carries out detection and prove without epidemic disease？
Standby process was carried out before user operation button；
(1) press the sampling approach button in input module, display screen occur finite group representative sampling,
Infinite group representative sampling and the sampling information of risk-based；
(2) finite group of the method risk-based needed for being selected by scroll-up/down key is sampled, at this moment
CPU brings into operation the Sample Size Calculation of finite group representative sampling:
Wherein D=N × (PrH×P*H+PrL×P*L)；
(3) confidence level key is pressed, display screen display CL:；
(4) confidence level 95% selected by the input of ten numeral keys, then display screen display CL:95, presses
Acknowledgement key confirms；
(5) individual amount key is pressed, display screen display N:；
(6) individual amount such as 2600 selected by the input of ten numeral keys, then display screen display N:2600,
Press acknowledgement key to confirm；
(7) expection prevalence rate key is pressed, display screen display p:；
(8) by ten numeral keys's input expection prevalence rates such as 2%, 0.02 is inputted, then display screen display p:
0.02, press acknowledgement key and confirm；
(9) pressing sensitivity key, display screen shows it is Se:；
(10) by ten numeral keys's input corresponding sensitivity value such as 90%, then input 90, show screen display
Show Se:0.05；
(11) press relative risk key, and display screen is shown as RR:；
(12), by ten numeral keys's input corresponding Relative risk values such as 3, display screen is shown as RR:3；
(13) press colony's medium or high risk animal accounting key, and display screen is shown as PPrH:；
(14) input corresponding excessive risk animal accounting such as 20 by ten numeral keys, and display screen is shown as
PPrH: 20,
(15) press sample medium or high risk animal accounting key, and display screen is shown as PrH:；
(16) input corresponding excessive risk animal accounting such as 70 by ten numeral keys, and display screen is shown as
PrH: 70；
(17) are pressed acknowledgement key and are confirmed, the operation result 95 of display display CPU7；
Its medium or high risk animal extracts 67, and low-risk animal extracts 28.
There is described herein the preferred embodiment of the present invention, realize the best of invention including inventor is known
Pattern.After reading the description above, the variation of those preferred implementations is for this area one
As technical staff will be apparent from.Inventor expects that those of skill in the art can use these suitably
Variation.Therefore, the present invention includes the master stated in the dependent claims that applicable law is allowed
All modifications of topic and equivalent, additionally, present invention resides in all possible variation is above-mentioned
Any combination of element.Unless had at this in other different explanations or context to have negate clearly.
Claims (2)
1. in epidemic disease controls, prove the computer without epidemic disease or the sample size finding epidemic disease, its
Being characterised by, described computer includes input module, computing module and display module, wherein said meter
Calculate the computing formula run in module corresponding with the sampling approach of input in input module, wherein input
Module include individual amount in the input of sampling approach, confidence level, target complex, expection prevalence rate,
Input with allowable error and the input of numeral, amount of sampling computing module is by Different Sampling Methods
Amount of sampling computing module forms, and amount of sampling computing module is provided with the input from described input module,
Going to the outfan of display module, this computer also can be powered by battery by AC-powered,
When described sampling approach is finite group representative sampling, corresponding computing formula is:
Wherein:
Se is the sensitivity of detection method；
N is sampling number；
CL is confidence level；
D is the animals showing positive number in group, equal to the product of number of individuals in group Yu predetermined prevalence rate,
I.e. D=N × p；
N is number of individuals in group；
When described sampling approach is infinite group representative sampling, corresponding computing formula is:
Wherein:
α is acceptable error, equal to 1-confidence level (CL)；
P is predetermined prevalence rate；
Se is the sensitivity of detection method；
When described sampling approach is the sampling of risk-based, and corresponding computing formula is:
Wherein:
CL is confidence level；
Se is the sensitivity of detection method；
PrHFor sample medium or high risk unit proportion；
PrLFor sample medium to low-risk unit proportion；
P* HThe probability infected for revised excessive risk unit；
P* LThe probability infected for revised low-risk unit.
2. in epidemic disease controls, prove that it is special without epidemic disease or a sampling approach for discovery epidemic disease
Levy the sample size being described sampling approach and calculated acquisition by the computer of claim 1.
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| CN102286916B (en) * | 2011-07-13 | 2014-10-29 | 东南大学 | Method for determining time varying reliability of prestressed concrete box girder bridge |
| CN102855384A (en) * | 2012-07-27 | 2013-01-02 | 中国农业科学院油料作物研究所 | Quantitative evaluation method for peanut aflatoxin B1 pollution on human health risk |
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