CN103400053A - Punctual flight takeoff forecasting method - Google Patents
Punctual flight takeoff forecasting method Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The invention discloses a punctual flight takeoff forecasting method. The method comprises the steps of firstly acquiring the basic information of a flight, and then comprehensively investigating the probability of punctual flight takeoff according to the expected takeoff time, the current status of the flight, the conditions of the preceding flight of the current flight, influences of the airport flow factor and influences of the aircraft age factor of the flight before takeoff. The punctual flight takeoff forecasting method has the advantages that the probability of punctual flight takeoff is deduced by the method, so that passengers know the probability of punctual flight takeoff as planned and can simply and clearly know the probability of punctual takeoff of the flight according to the punctuality rate of the day.
Description
Technical field
The present invention relates to the civil aviaton field, especially relate to the predictor method that flight takes off on schedule.
Background technology
At present, the software of existing Scheduled Flight " flies Chang Zhun ", shows the information data of each flight to the client.The present flight landing time that provides and flight status information are not provided the user and needs are known more about the information of situation on schedule on flight same day.And flight same day on schedule situation affected by many reasons, the computation process more complicated, the reference factor kind is complicated, therefore, for this type of user's request, a kind of algorithm of active demand development calculates flight punctuality rate on the same day, and the client is provided reference.
Summary of the invention
The present invention is just for the deficiencies in the prior art, the predictor method that provides flight on schedule to take off, and by the preorder flight, airport traffic, aircraft machine age is a series of can be affected the flight takeoff factor and judge whether flight can take off according to plan on schedule.
In order to solve the problems of the technologies described above, the technical scheme that the present invention realizes is as follows.
The predictor method that flight takes off on schedule, be applied to Scheduled Flight AP services P and fly normal Barebone, it is characterized in that: comprise the following steps.
(1) obtain the flight essential information, comprise the following steps.
1. fly flight basic data in normal Barebone according to Scheduled Flight AP services P and obtain the flight essential information of current required definite punctuality rate, this flight essential information comprises: flight planning departure time T1, E.T.D(estimated time of departure) T3, historical punctuality rate r.
2. obtain current time T2, and judgement current time T2 and flight planning departure time T1 interval time T:T=T1-T2.
, if T, less than or equal to 4 hours, needs to calculate punctuality rate on the same day according to affecting flight factor judgement on schedule, enter step (2).
(2) before flight does not take off, the departure time judges flight situation on schedule on the estimation, determines time interval T4:T4=T3-T1 between flight E.T.D(estimated time of departure) T3 and flight planning departure time T1.
If the interval T 4 of E.T.D(estimated time of departure) T3 and flight planning departure time T1 was less than or equal to 0.5 hour, the same day, accurate rate zdl kept initial value constant, and the same day, accurate rate zdl initial value was 0.95, entered step (3);
(3) judge whether on schedule situation of flight according to the flight current state, the punctuality rate that step (3) draws is zdl3, by the Scheduled Flight system, if the flight status value for " may incur loss through delay " the same day punctuality rate zdl=zdl3=0.5, if the flight status value be " normally " the same day punctuality rate zdl=zdl3=0.95, the punctuality rate that step (3) draws is zdl3, enters step (4).
(4) judge flight punctuality rate on same day situation according to the preorder flight situation of current flight, the punctuality rate that step (4) draws is zdl4, at first need to obtain preorder flight relevant information from the Scheduled Flight system, this preorder flight relevant information comprises: preorder flight current state, the preorder flight planning departure time, preorder flight E.T.D(estimated time of departure), preorder flight actual time of departure, preorder flight planning time of arrival, preorder flight estimated time of arrival (ETA), preorder flight actual time of arrival, concrete steps are as follows.
(I) preorder flight current state value, for calculating flight punctuality rate on the same day in the situation of taking off, is at first determined current flight departure airfield.
, if 1. departure airfield is capital, Beijing, Hongqiao in Shanghai, PVG or Guangzhou's Baiyun International Airport, need to judge whether flight has the possibility of more transfer to flight, and whether obtain flight from the Scheduled Flight system has more transfer to flight possibility.
(a) possibility of more transfer to flight is arranged.
If preorder flight estimated time of arrival (ETA) current flight planning departure time of distance is greater than 60 minutes, the same day punctuality rate: zdl=zdl4=zdl3*1.05.
If preorder flight estimated time of arrival (ETA) current flight planning departure time of distance at 30 minutes in 60 minutes, the same day punctuality rate: zdl=zdl4=zdl3*0.85.
If preorder flight estimated time of arrival (ETA) current flight planning departure time of distance is less than or equal to 30 minutes, the same day punctuality rate: zdl=zdl4=zdl3*0.6.
(b) without the possibility of transfer to flight more.
Preorder flight estimated time of arrival (ETA) current flight planning departure time of distance is greater than 60 minutes, the same day punctuality rate: zdl=zdl4=zdl3*1.
If preorder flight estimated time of arrival (ETA) current flight planning departure time of distance at 30 minutes in 60 minutes, the same day punctuality rate: zdl=zdl4=zdl3*0.75.
If its preorder flight estimated time of arrival (ETA) current flight planning departure time of distance is less than or equal to 30 minutes, the same day punctuality rate: zdl=zdl4=zdl3*0.45.
, if 2. departure airfield is other airports,, except capital, Beijing, Hongqiao in Shanghai, PVG and Guangzhou's Baiyun International Airport, do not consider the transfer to flight possibility.
If preorder flight estimated time of arrival (ETA) current flight planning departure time of distance is greater than 60 minutes, the same day punctuality rate: zdl=zdl4=zdl3*1.05.
If preorder flight estimated time of arrival (ETA) current flight planning departure time of distance at 30 minutes in 60 minutes, the same day punctuality rate: zdl=zdl4=zdl3*0.8.
If preorder flight estimated time of arrival (ETA) current flight planning departure time of distance is less than or equal to 30 minutes, the same day punctuality rate: zdl=zdl4=zdl3*0.5.
According to actual conditions, replacement zdl, enter step (5).
(5) airport traffic factor impact, the punctuality rate that step (5) draws is zdl5, obtains the flight flow situation that arrives at the airport from the Scheduled Flight system.
When airport traffic was normal, the same day, punctuality rate was constant: zdl=zdl5=zdl4.
When airport traffic is small size while incuring loss through delay, the same day punctuality rate: zdl=zdl5=zdl4*0.95.
When airport traffic is large tracts of land when incuring loss through delay, the same day punctuality rate: zdl=zdl5=zdl4*0.85.
According to actual conditions, replacement punctuality rate zdl, enter step (6).
(6) hold aircraft machine factor in the age impact of flight class, the punctuality rate that step (6) draws is zdl6.
When holding aircraft machine age of flying during less than 15 years, the constant zdl=zdl6=zdl5 of punctuality rate on the same day.Output punctuality rate zdl on the same day.
As the further improvement of such scheme, if current time T2 and flight planning departure time T1 interval time T greater than 4 hours, the value that same day, flight punctuality rate zdl got the historical punctuality rate r of flight, that is: zdl=r, directly Output rusults zdl.
As the further improvement of such scheme, if the interval T 4 of E.T.D(estimated time of departure) T3 and Proposed Departure time T 1 more than or equal to 0.5 hour, the same day punctuality rate zdl=0, EOP (end of program), output zdl.
Further improvement as such scheme, by the Scheduled Flight system, determine flight current state status, if return state status value is " delay ", " making a return voyage ", " may make preparation for dropping ", " may make a return voyage ", " may cancel ", when any state, judge punctuality rate zdl=0 on the same day in " cancellation ", obtain punctuality rate zdl on the same day, EOP (end of program), output zdl.
As the further improvement of such scheme, described preorder flight does not take off in situation and calculates flight punctuality rate on the same day, at first determines current flight departure airfield.
, if 1. departure airfield is capital, Beijing, Hongqiao in Shanghai, PVG or Guangzhou's Baiyun International Airport, need to judge whether flight has more transfer to flight possibility, obtains more transfer to flight possibility of flight from the Scheduled Flight system.
(a) if departure airfield is capital, Beijing, Hongqiao in Shanghai, PVG or Guangzhou's Baiyun International Airport, more transfer to flight possibility is arranged.
If the preorder flight E.T.D(estimated time of departure) is at Proposed Departure before the time, flight punctuality rate on the same day: zdl=zdl4=zdl3*1.05.
If the preorder flight E.T.D(estimated time of departure) is at Proposed Departure after the time in 0-30 minute, flight punctuality rate on the same day: zdl=zdl4=zdl3*0.85.
If the preorder flight E.T.D(estimated time of departure) is later than 30 minutes preorder flight planning departure times, the same day punctuality rate: zdl=zdl4=0.
(b) if departure airfield is other airports, except capital, Beijing, Hongqiao in Shanghai, PVG and Guangzhou's Baiyun International Airport, without more transfer to flight possibility.
If the preorder flight E.T.D(estimated time of departure) is at Proposed Departure before the time, flight punctuality rate on the same day: zdl=zdl4=zdl3*1.
If the preorder flight E.T.D(estimated time of departure) is at Proposed Departure after the time in 0-30 minute, flight punctuality rate on the same day: zdl=zdl4=zdl3*0.75.
If the preorder flight E.T.D(estimated time of departure) is later than 30 minutes preorder flight planning departure times, the same day punctuality rate: zdl=zdl4=0.
, if 2. departure airfield is other airports, except capital, Beijing, Hongqiao in Shanghai, PVG and Guangzhou's Baiyun International Airport, namely do not consider the transfer to flight possibility.
If the preorder flight E.T.D(estimated time of departure) is at Proposed Departure before the time, flight punctuality rate on the same day: zdl=zdl4=zdl3*1.05.
If the preorder flight E.T.D(estimated time of departure) is at Proposed Departure after the time in 0-30 minute, flight punctuality rate on the same day: zdl=zdl4=zdl3*0.85.
According to above analysis situation, replacement zdl.
As the further improvement of such scheme, if the normal zdl5=zdl4 of airport traffic, and when holding aircraft machine age of flying during greater than 15 years, the same day punctuality rate: zdl=zdl6=zdl5*0.9, replacement zdl, output zdl.
The predictor method that flight of the present invention takes off on schedule, by the preorder flight, airport traffic, a series of meetings in age of aircraft machine affect the flight takeoff factor and estimate the probability whether flight can take off according to plan on schedule.The user can judge the flight probability that on schedule takes off of time according to plan according to punctuality rate, can accomplish the probability that the user can simply and clearly according to punctuality rate understanding on the same day flight of taking advantage of, be taken off on schedule, thereby can allow the user accomplish to know what's what in waiting the flight takeoff process rather than anxious wait of not knowing situation.
Description of drawings
Fig. 1 is the process flow diagram of the predictor method that on schedule takes off of flight provided by the invention.
Embodiment
, in order to make purpose of the present invention, technical scheme and advantage clearer, below in conjunction with drawings and Examples, the present invention is further elaborated.Should be appreciated that specific embodiment described herein, only in order to explain the present invention, is not intended to limit the present invention.
See also Fig. 1, the process flow diagram of the predictor method that on schedule takes off for flight provided by the invention.
Flight punctuality rate on the same day is affected by following factor: preorder flight situation, the flow situation that arrives at the airport of setting out, hold flight class aircraft machine information in age.
Flight punctuality rate on the same day determine a kind of method that adopts computer program to calculate, the method is calculated punctuality rate and is needed before flight takeoff; After flight takeoff, the same day, punctuality rate was not provided, namely system do not provide the same day punctuality rate information.
Determine flight punctuality rate on same day process, concrete steps are as follows.
Step (1): program starts, and carries out flow process 11.
Step (2): carry out flow process 12, obtain the flight essential information, comprise the following steps:
1. fly flight basic data in normal Barebone according to Scheduled Flight AP services P and obtain the flight essential information of current required definite punctuality rate, comprising: flight planning departure time T1, E.T.D(estimated time of departure) T3, historical punctuality rate r.
2. obtain current time T2, and judgement current time T2 and flight planning departure time T1 interval time T:T=T2-T1, carry out flow process 1, judgement T2-T1〉4.
If T2-T1〉4 hours, the value that same day, flight punctuality rate zdl got the historical punctuality rate r of flight, carry out flow process 18, assignment punctuality rate: zdl=r, directly Output rusults zdl, carry out flow process 17, EOP (end of program).
If interval time, T was less than or equal to 4 hours, flight punctuality rate initialization assignment 0.95, enter step (3), needs to calculate punctuality rate on the same day according to affecting flight factor judgement on schedule.
Fly normal accurate statistical study according to the client that flies friend science and technology research and development, at flight takeoff, calculated the tool reference value of punctuality rate on the same day in front 4 hours.It is also to obtain according to flying normal accurate the analysis that initialization punctuality rate on same day value gets 0.95.
Step (3): before flight did not take off, the departure time judged flight situation on schedule on the estimation.Carry out flow process 13, determine flight E.T.D(estimated time of departure) T3, time interval T:T=T3-T1 between flight E.T.D(estimated time of departure) T3 and flight planning departure time T1, carry out flow process 2 judgement T3-T1〉0.5.
If the interval T of E.T.D(estimated time of departure) T3 and Proposed Departure time T 1 is more than or equal to 0.5 hour, the same day punctuality rate zdl=0, directly Output rusults zdl, carry out flow process 17, EOP (end of program);
If the interval T of E.T.D(estimated time of departure) T3 and Proposed Departure time T 1 was less than or equal to 0.5 hour, the same day, accurate rate kept initial value constant, and zdl=0.95, enter step (4).
E.T.D(estimated time of departure) and Proposed Departure time phase difference are planned for surpassing of regulation half an hour, do not take off in 0.5 hour, are defined as the delay state in Civil Aviation System.
Step (4): whether on schedule carry out flow process 3, according to the flight current state, judge flight situation, it is zdl4 that step 4 obtains punctuality rate.
By the Scheduled Flight system, determine flight current state status, carry out flow process 14, judge whether punctuality rate=0 sets up, if the flight current state is " delay ", " making a return voyage ", " may make preparation for dropping ", " may make a return voyage ", " may cancel ", in " cancellation " when any state, the same day punctuality rate zdl=0, directly output zdl, carry out flow process 17, EOP (end of program);
If flight status status value for " may incur loss through delay " the same day punctuality rate zdl=zdl4=0.5;
If flight status status value be " normally " the same day punctuality rate zdl=zdl4=0.95;
Replacement flight punctuality rate, zdl=zdl4, enter step (5).
Step (5): carry out flow process 4, according to preorder flight situation judgement flight punctuality rate on the same day situation of current flight, the punctuality rate that step (5) draws is zdl5.
At first need to obtain preorder flight relevant information from the Scheduled Flight system, comprise: preorder flight current state, the preorder flight planning departure time, the preorder flight E.T.D(estimated time of departure), the preorder flight actual time of departure, preorder flight planning time of arrival, preorder flight estimated time of arrival (ETA), preorder flight actual time of arrival.Concrete steps are as follows.
(I), preorder flight current state value are for calculating flight punctuality rate on the same day in the situation of taking off.At first determine current flight departure airfield.
, if 1. departure airfield is capital, Beijing, Hongqiao in Shanghai, PVG or Guangzhou's Baiyun International Airport, need to judge whether flight has the possibility of more transfer to flight.Obtain flight from the Scheduled Flight system whether more transfer to flight possibility arranged:
(a) if flight has the possibility of more transfer to flight.
When distance current flight planning departure time preorder flight estimated time of arrival (ETA) greater than 60 minutes, the same day punctuality rate: zdl=zdl5=zdl4*1.05.
When distance current flight planning departure time preorder flight estimated time of arrival (ETA) at 30 minutes in 60 minutes, the same day punctuality rate: zdl=zdl5=zdl4*0.85.
When distance current flight planning departure time preorder flight estimated time of arrival (ETA) less than or equal to 30 minutes, the same day punctuality rate: zdl=zdl5=zdl4*0.6.
The preorder flight estimated time of arrival (ETA) current flight planning departure time of distance arranges 30-60 minute and is boundary's point, learn according to flying normal prospect's end, the preliminary works such as the front aircraft passenger compartment cleaning of passenger boarding need the time of at least 30 minutes, so interval time is well-to-do, and flight takeoff more can be protected.
(b) if flight without the possibility of transfer to flight more.
Preorder flight estimated time of arrival (ETA) current flight planning departure time of distance is greater than 60 minutes, the same day punctuality rate: zdl=zdl5=zdl4*1.
If preorder flight estimated time of arrival (ETA) current flight planning departure time of distance at 30 minutes in 60 minutes, the same day punctuality rate: zdl=zdl5=zdl4*0.75.
Its preorder flight estimated time of arrival (ETA) current flight planning departure time of distance is less than or equal to 30 minutes, the same day punctuality rate zdl=zdl5=zdl4*0.45.
If 2. departure airfield is other airport, except capital, Beijing, Hongqiao in Shanghai, outside PVG and Guangzhou's Baiyun International Airport, do not consider the transfer to flight possibility.
When distance current flight planning departure time preorder flight estimated time of arrival (ETA) greater than 60 minutes, the same day punctuality rate: zdl=zdl5=zdl4*1.05.
When distance current flight planning departure time preorder flight estimated time of arrival (ETA) at 30 minutes in 60 minutes, the same day punctuality rate: zdl=zdl5=zdl4*0.8.
When distance current flight planning departure time preorder flight estimated time of arrival (ETA) less than or equal to 30 minutes, the same day punctuality rate: zdl=zdl5=zdl4*0.5.
(II), under the preorder flight does not take off situation, calculate flight punctuality rate on the same day.At first determine current flight departure airfield.
, if 1. departure airfield is capital, Beijing, Hongqiao in Shanghai, PVG or Guangzhou's Baiyun International Airport, need to judge whether flight has more transfer to flight possibility, obtains more transfer to flight possibility of flight from the Scheduled Flight system.
(a) more transfer to flight possibility is arranged.
If the preorder flight E.T.D(estimated time of departure) is at Proposed Departure before the time, flight punctuality rate on the same day: zdl=zdl5=zdl4*1.05.
If the preorder flight E.T.D(estimated time of departure) is at Proposed Departure after the time in 0-30 minute, flight punctuality rate on the same day: zdl=zdl5=zdl4*0.85.
If the preorder flight E.T.D(estimated time of departure) is later than 30 minutes preorder flight planning departure times, the same day punctuality rate: zdl=zdl5=0.
(b) without more transfer to flight possibility.
If the preorder flight E.T.D(estimated time of departure) is at Proposed Departure before the time, flight punctuality rate on the same day: zdl=zdl5=zdl4*1.
If the preorder flight E.T.D(estimated time of departure) is at Proposed Departure after the time in 0-30 minute, flight punctuality rate on the same day: zdl=zdl5=zdl4*0.75.
If the preorder flight E.T.D(estimated time of departure) is later than 30 minutes preorder flight planning departure times, the same day punctuality rate: zdl=zdl5=0.
2. departure airfield is other airport, and except capital, Beijing, Hongqiao in Shanghai, outside PVG and Guangzhou's Baiyun International Airport, namely do not consider the transfer to flight possibility.
If the preorder flight E.T.D(estimated time of departure) is at Proposed Departure before the time, flight punctuality rate on the same day: zdl=zdl5=zdl4*1.05.
If the preorder flight E.T.D(estimated time of departure) is at Proposed Departure after the time in 0-30 minute, flight punctuality rate on same day zdl=zdl5=zdl4*0.85.
If the preorder flight E.T.D(estimated time of departure) is later than 30 minutes preorder flight planning departure times, the same day punctuality rate: zdl=zdl5=0.
If without the preorder flight, omit above analysis, directly access step (6).
If the preorder flight is arranged,, according to above analysis replacement zdl, carry out flow process 15, enter step (6).
Step (6): carry out flow process 5,, according to the impact of airport traffic factor, obtain the flight flow situation that arrives at the airport from the Scheduled Flight system, the punctuality rate that step (6) draws is zdl6.
When airport traffic was normal, the same day, punctuality rate was constant: zdl=zdl6.
When airport traffic is small size while incuring loss through delay, the same day punctuality rate: zdl=zdl6=zdl5*0.95.
When airport traffic is large tracts of land when incuring loss through delay, the same day punctuality rate: zdl=zdl6=zdl5*0.85.
, according to airport traffic situation replacement zdl, enter step (7).
Step (7): carry out flow process 6, according to the aircraft machine factor in age of holding flight class, judgement machine age〉15 whether, estimate punctuality rate, the punctuality rate that step (7) draws is zdl7.
When holding aircraft machine age of flying during less than or equal to 15 years, the same day punctuality rate zdl=zdl7=zdl6.
When holding aircraft machine age of flying during greater than 15 years, the same day punctuality rate: zdl=zdl7=zdl6*0.9.
Carry out flow process 17, EOP (end of program), output zdl.
The punctuality rate algorithm that flight takes off on schedule, by the preorder flight, airport traffic, a series of meetings in age of aircraft machine affect the flight takeoff factor and estimate the punctuality rate whether flight can take off according to plan on schedule.The passenger is according to the punctuality rate judgement flight probability that takes off of time according to plan on schedule, the probability that the passenger can simply and clearly according to punctuality rate understanding on the same day flight of taking advantage of, be taken off on schedule, thus can allow the passenger accomplish to know what's what in waiting the flight takeoff process rather than anxious wait of not knowing situation.
The foregoing is only preferred embodiment of the present invention,, not in order to limit the present invention, all any modifications of doing within the spirit and principles in the present invention, be equal to and replace and improvement etc., within all should being included in protection scope of the present invention.
Claims (6)
1. the predictor method that on schedule takes off of flight, be applied to Scheduled Flight AP services P and fly normal Barebone, it is characterized in that: comprise the following steps:
(1) obtain the flight essential information, comprise the following steps:
1. fly flight basic data in normal Barebone according to Scheduled Flight AP services P and obtain the flight essential information of current required definite punctuality rate, this flight essential information comprises: flight planning departure time T1, E.T.D(estimated time of departure) T3, historical punctuality rate r;
2. obtain current time T2, and judgement current time T2 and flight planning departure time T1 interval time T:T=T1-T2;
, if T, less than or equal to 4 hours, needs to calculate punctuality rate on the same day according to affecting flight factor judgement on schedule, enter step (2);
(2) before flight does not take off, the departure time judges flight situation on schedule on the estimation, determines time interval T4:T4=T3-T1 between flight E.T.D(estimated time of departure) T3 and flight planning departure time T1;
If the interval T 4 of E.T.D(estimated time of departure) T3 and flight planning departure time T1 was less than or equal to 0.5 hour, the same day, accurate rate zdl kept initial value constant, and the same day, accurate rate zdl initial value was 0.95, entered step (3);
(3) judge whether on schedule situation of flight according to the flight current state, the punctuality rate that step (3) draws is zdl3, by the Scheduled Flight system, if the flight status value for " may incur loss through delay " the same day punctuality rate zdl=zdl3=0.5, if the flight status value be " normally " the same day punctuality rate zdl=zdl3=0.95, the punctuality rate that step (3) draws is zdl3, enters step (4);
(4) judge flight punctuality rate on same day situation according to the preorder flight situation of current flight, the punctuality rate that step (4) draws is zdl4, at first need to obtain preorder flight relevant information from the Scheduled Flight system, this preorder flight relevant information comprises: preorder flight current state, the preorder flight planning departure time, preorder flight E.T.D(estimated time of departure), preorder flight actual time of departure, preorder flight planning time of arrival, preorder flight estimated time of arrival (ETA), preorder flight actual time of arrival, concrete steps are as follows:
(I) preorder flight current state value, for calculating flight punctuality rate on the same day in the situation of taking off, is at first determined current flight departure airfield:
, if 1. departure airfield is capital, Beijing, Hongqiao in Shanghai, PVG or Guangzhou's Baiyun International Airport, need to judge whether flight has the possibility of more transfer to flight, and whether obtain flight from the Scheduled Flight system has more transfer to flight possibility:
(a) possibility of more transfer to flight is arranged:
If preorder flight estimated time of arrival (ETA) current flight planning departure time of distance is greater than 60 minutes, the same day punctuality rate: zdl=zdl4=zdl3*1.05;
If preorder flight estimated time of arrival (ETA) current flight planning departure time of distance at 30 minutes in 60 minutes, the same day punctuality rate: zdl=zdl4=zdl3*0.85;
If preorder flight estimated time of arrival (ETA) current flight planning departure time of distance is less than or equal to 30 minutes, the same day punctuality rate: zdl=zdl4=zdl3*0.6;
(b) without the possibility of transfer to flight more:
Preorder flight estimated time of arrival (ETA) current flight planning departure time of distance is greater than 60 minutes, the same day punctuality rate: zdl=zdl4=zdl3*1;
If preorder flight estimated time of arrival (ETA) current flight planning departure time of distance at 30 minutes in 60 minutes, the same day punctuality rate: zdl=zdl4=zdl3*0.75;
If its preorder flight estimated time of arrival (ETA) current flight planning departure time of distance is less than or equal to 30 minutes, the same day punctuality rate: zdl=zdl4=zdl3*0.45;
, if 2. departure airfield is other airports,, except capital, Beijing, Hongqiao in Shanghai, PVG and Guangzhou's Baiyun International Airport, do not consider the transfer to flight possibility:
If preorder flight estimated time of arrival (ETA) current flight planning departure time of distance is greater than 60 minutes, the same day punctuality rate: zdl=zdl4=zdl3*1.05;
If preorder flight estimated time of arrival (ETA) current flight planning departure time of distance at 30 minutes in 60 minutes, the same day punctuality rate: zdl=zdl4=zdl3*0.8;
If preorder flight estimated time of arrival (ETA) current flight planning departure time of distance is less than or equal to 30 minutes, the same day punctuality rate: zdl=zdl4=zdl3*0.5;
According to actual conditions, replacement zdl, enter step (5)
(5) airport traffic factor impact, the punctuality rate that step (5) draws is zdl5, obtains the flight flow situation that arrives at the airport from the Scheduled Flight system;
When airport traffic was normal, the same day, punctuality rate was constant: zdl=zdl5=zdl4;
When airport traffic is small size while incuring loss through delay, the same day punctuality rate: zdl=zdl5=zdl4*0.95;
When airport traffic is large tracts of land when incuring loss through delay, the same day punctuality rate: zdl=zdl5=zdl4*0.85;
According to actual conditions, replacement punctuality rate zdl, enter step (6)
(6) hold aircraft machine factor in the age impact of flight class, the punctuality rate that step (6) draws is zdl6,
When holding aircraft machine age of flying during less than 15 years, the constant zdl=zdl6=zdl5 of punctuality rate on the same day;
Output punctuality rate zdl on the same day.
2. the predictor method that on schedule takes off of flight according to claim 1, it is characterized in that: if current time T2 and flight planning departure time T1 interval time T were greater than 4 hours, the value that same day, flight punctuality rate zdl got the historical punctuality rate r of flight, that is: zdl=r, directly Output rusults zdl.
3. the predictor method that on schedule takes off of flight according to claim 1 is characterized in that: if the interval T 4 of E.T.D(estimated time of departure) T3 and Proposed Departure time T 1 more than or equal to 0.5 hour, the same day punctuality rate zdl=0, EOP (end of program), output zdl.
4. the predictor method that on schedule takes off of flight according to claim 1, it is characterized in that: by the Scheduled Flight system, determine flight current state status, if return state status value is " delay ", " making a return voyage ", " may make preparation for dropping ", " may make a return voyage ", " may cancel ", when any state, judge punctuality rate zdl=0 on the same day in " cancellation ", obtain punctuality rate zdl on the same day, EOP (end of program), output zdl.
5. the predictor method that on schedule takes off of flight according to claim 1 is characterized in that: to step (4), described preorder flight does not take off in situation and calculates flight punctuality rate on the same day, at first determines current flight departure airfield:
, if 1. departure airfield is capital, Beijing, Hongqiao in Shanghai, PVG or Guangzhou's Baiyun International Airport, need to judge whether flight has more transfer to flight possibility, obtains more transfer to flight possibility of flight from the Scheduled Flight system:
(a) if departure airfield is capital, Beijing, Hongqiao in Shanghai, PVG or Guangzhou's Baiyun International Airport, more transfer to flight possibility is arranged;
If the preorder flight E.T.D(estimated time of departure) is at Proposed Departure before the time, flight punctuality rate on the same day: zdl=zdl4=zdl3*1.05;
If the preorder flight E.T.D(estimated time of departure) is at Proposed Departure after the time in 0-30 minute, flight punctuality rate on the same day: zdl=zdl4=zdl3*0.85;
If the preorder flight E.T.D(estimated time of departure) is later than 30 minutes preorder flight planning departure times, the same day punctuality rate: zdl=zdl4=0;
(b) if departure airfield is other airports, except capital, Beijing, Hongqiao in Shanghai, PVG and Guangzhou's Baiyun International Airport, without more transfer to flight possibility;
If the preorder flight E.T.D(estimated time of departure) is at Proposed Departure before the time, flight punctuality rate on the same day: zdl=zdl4=zdl3*1;
If the preorder flight E.T.D(estimated time of departure) is at Proposed Departure after the time in 0-30 minute, flight punctuality rate on the same day: zdl=zdl4=zdl3*0.75;
If the preorder flight E.T.D(estimated time of departure) is later than 30 minutes preorder flight planning departure times, the same day punctuality rate: zdl=zdl4=0;
, if 2. departure airfield is other airports, except capital, Beijing, Hongqiao in Shanghai, PVG and Guangzhou's Baiyun International Airport, namely do not consider the transfer to flight possibility;
If the preorder flight E.T.D(estimated time of departure) is at Proposed Departure before the time, flight punctuality rate on the same day: zdl=zdl4=zdl3*1.05;
If the preorder flight E.T.D(estimated time of departure) is at Proposed Departure after the time in 0-30 minute, flight punctuality rate on the same day: zdl=zdl4=zdl3*0.85;
According to above analysis situation, replacement zdl.
6. the predictor method that on schedule takes off of flight according to claim 5 is characterized in that: if the normal zdl5=zdl4 of airport traffic, and when holding aircraft machine age of flying during greater than 15 years, the same day punctuality rate: zdl=zdl6=zdl5*0.9, replacement zdl, output zdl.
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