CN103138256B - A kind of new energy electric power reduction panorama analytic system and method - Google Patents

Abstract

The present invention discloses a kind of new forms of energy and to dissolve panorama analytical method system and method, comprise input module, electric system generator group maintenance scheduling module, Stochastic Production Simulation and unit commitment module, Analysis of peak shaving module, frequency modulation analysis module, panorama type new forms of energy are dissolved scale computing module and output module.It constructs comprehensive new forms of energy large-scale development and to dissolve panorama analytical method processing platform, by the calculating of generation of electricity by new energy model insertion electric power system maintenance scheduling, Stochastic Production Simulation and unit commitment, Analysis of peak shaving and frequency modulation analyses such as wind-powered electricity generations, and new forms of energy scale of dissolving calculates, constructing the overall evaluation system to New-energy power system and method, is the system that the analysis new forms of energy wind-powered electricity generation large-scale grid connection of the comprehensive all the period of time containing systems organization, operation, scheduling and Nian Zhouyue day minute (interior) level is dissolved.

Description

A kind of new energy electric power reduction panorama analytic system and method

Technical field

The present invention relates to a kind of energy technology field, particularly relate to power system operation and control analysis processing technology field, the new forms of energy electric power large-scale development especially relating to a kind of multizone Multiple Time Scales is dissolved panorama analytical method treatment system and method.

Background technology

The utilization of traditional fossil energy exacerbates the problem such as environmental pollution, global warming, make to be that the new forms of energy of representative are obtaining large development in recent years with wind-powered electricity generation, along with the continuous growth of the new forms of energy proportions such as wind-powered electricity generation, it is dispatched normally on electrical network, run and impact that administrative institute causes also will become increasing.

The all units comprising fired power generating unit, Hydropower Unit and Wind turbines are called the whole network unit by current electric power system, wherein, the electric power energy of the composition such as fired power generating unit, Hydropower Unit is called traditional energy electric power, and the electric power energy of the composition such as Wind turbines is called new forms of energy electric power.

At present, the new forms of energy extensive development such as wind-powered electricity generation realize the inevitable choice that China's energy development mode changes, and for realizing, China's non-fossil energy developing goal, the overall security improving energy industry system and spatter property etc. are most important.

New forms of energy are converted mainly into electric energy and are used, but the generations of electricity by new energy such as wind-powered electricity generation have randomness, intermittent feature, also face extensive concentrated development problem in China.

A kind of power dispatching method of wind power integration the whole network unit is there is in prior art, it comprises several wind energy turbine set in electrical network, multiple stage Wind turbines forms a wind energy turbine set, it adopts plan a few days ago to add real-time automatic generation control (AutomaticGeneration Control, AGC) pattern is dispatched, but this scheduling method major defect is, very large deviation is often there is with actual exerting oneself because wind-powered electricity generation predicts the outcome a few days ago, make to plan in commission a few days ago and between actual conditions, there is very large deviation, the output of wind electric field plan made is too small and cause larger windage loss of abandoning to lose, and the excessive generation load deviation of system that causes of some output of wind electric field plans widens, increase the weight of the burden of AGC unit.

And, the research of dissolving of the new forms of energy electric power of large-scale wind power, water power etc. not yet forms generally acknowledged method system, current existing method lays particular emphasis on the aspects such as peak shaving, fan characteristic, the quality of power supply, section stability, lack systematic method system, the needs of new energy technology development cannot be met.

Summary of the invention

The object of the present invention is to provide a kind of new energy electric power reduction panorama analytic system and method, it is effectively by generation of electricity by new energy model insertion traditional energy electric power systems such as wind-powered electricity generations, carry out maintenance to calculate, Stochastic Production Simulation, and peak regulation and frequency-modulating process analyzing and processing, solve the overall technology economic evaluation containing whole electric power system the whole network after the access of multizone extensive new forms of energy electric power, reliability assessment, the series of problems such as peak-frequency regulation analysis, and calculate respectively and provide new forms of energy based on peak regulation and frequency modulation analysis and to dissolve scale result of calculation, the analysis of dissolving of new forms of energy large-scale development for multizone Multiple Time Scales provides effective means.

For realizing a kind of new energy electric power reduction panorama analytic system that the object of the invention provides, comprise input module, electric system generator group maintenance scheduling module, Stochastic Production Simulation and unit commitment module, wherein:

Described input module, analyzes desired data parameter for inputting;

Described GENERATOR MAINTENANCE SCHEDULING IN module, for the technical costs parameter according to described New-energy power system generating set layout data, New-energy power system, part throttle characteristics parameter and generation of electricity by new energy power producing characteristics data, calculate the GENERATOR MAINTENANCE SCHEDULING IN result of described New-energy power system;

Described Stochastic Production Simulation and unit commitment computing module, for the technical costs parameter according to described New-energy power system generating set layout data, electricity power system, part throttle characteristics parameter and generation of electricity by new energy power producing characteristics data, according to equivalent electric quantity frequency method, production simulation calculating is carried out to described New-energy power system, obtains the working train family data of described New-energy power system.

More preferably, described new energy electric power reduction panorama analytic system, also comprises Analysis of peak shaving module, frequency modulation analysis module, and panorama type new forms of energy are dissolved scale computing module and output module, wherein:

Described Analysis of peak shaving module, for the technical costs parameter according to maintenance scheduling and unit commitment data, New-energy power system, part throttle characteristics data and generation of electricity by new energy power producing characteristics data, select the period, the peak shaving ability of described New-energy power system is analyzed, and receive new forms of energy electric power to adjust described unit commitment data for target preferentially to meet, obtain Analysis of peak shaving adjustment result;

Described frequency modulation analysis module, for the data parameters inputted according to described input module, in conjunction with Analysis of peak shaving adjustment result, analyzes the frequency stabilization of described New-energy power system, Steam Generator in Load Follow, obtains frequency modulation analysis result;

Described panorama type new forms of energy are dissolved scale computing module, to dissolve scale result of calculation for the new forms of energy calculated based on peak regulation and frequency modulation analysis;

Described output module, for exporting analysis result.

Also providing a kind of new energy electric power reduction panorama analytic method for realizing the object of the invention, comprising the following steps:

Steps A, desired data parameter is analyzed in input, comprise New-energy power system generating set layout data and the transmission system layout data of generation of electricity by new energy unit and traditional energy generating set, the default technical costs parameter comprising the New-energy power system of generation of electricity by new energy unit, traditional energy generating set and transmission system, and default part throttle characteristics data and generation of electricity by new energy power producing characteristics data;

Step B, according to the technical costs parameter of described New-energy power system generating set layout data, New-energy power system, part throttle characteristics parameter and generation of electricity by new energy power producing characteristics data, calculates the maintenance scheduling result of described New-energy power system;

Step C, according to the technical costs parameter of New-energy power system generating set layout data, electricity power system, part throttle characteristics parameter and generation of electricity by new energy power producing characteristics data, and described maintenance scheduling result, according to equivalent electric quantity frequency method, production simulation calculating is carried out to described New-energy power system, obtains the working train family data of described New-energy power system.

More preferably, new forms of energy power consumption analytical method of the present invention, also comprises the steps:

Step D, according to the technical costs parameter of maintenance scheduling result and unit commitment data, New-energy power system, part throttle characteristics data and generation of electricity by new energy power producing characteristics data, select the period, the peak modulation capacity of described New-energy power system is analyzed, and described unit commitment data are adjusted, obtain Analysis of peak shaving adjustment result;

Step e, according to the data parameters that described input module inputs, in conjunction with Analysis of peak shaving adjustment result, carries out frequency modulation analysis again to the frequency stabilization of described New-energy power system, Steam Generator in Load Follow, obtains the frequency modulation analysis result of described New-energy power system;

Step F, based on Analysis of peak shaving adjustment result and frequency modulation analysis result, the new forms of energy calculated based on peak regulation and frequency modulation analysis are dissolved scale result of calculation;

Step G, exports analysis result.

The invention has the beneficial effects as follows: new energy electric power reduction panorama analytic system and method for the present invention, when it is effectively by the New-energy power system of the generation of electricity by new energy model insertion traditional energy electric power system compositions such as wind-powered electricity generation, carry out maintenance to calculate, Stochastic Production Simulation, and peak regulation and frequency-modulating process Treatment Analysis, solve the overall technology economic evaluation containing New-energy power system the whole network after the extensive new forms of energy electric power access of multizone, reliability assessment, the series of problems such as peak-frequency regulation analysis, and calculate and to dissolve scale result of calculation etc. based on the new forms of energy of peak regulation and frequency modulation analysis respectively, the present invention is that the analysis of dissolving of the new forms of energy large-scale development of multizone Multiple Time Scales provides effective analyzing and processing means, solve the Comprehensive Evaluation Problem that new forms of energy large-scale development is dissolved, meet the needs of new energy technology development.

Accompanying drawing explanation

Fig. 1 is embodiment of the present invention new energy electric power reduction panorama analytic system configuration schematic diagram;

Fig. 2 is the principle schematic that the polymerization parameter identification of speed-changing draught fan calculates.

Embodiment

In order to make object of the present invention, technical scheme and advantage clearly understand, below in conjunction with drawings and Examples, new energy electric power reduction panorama analytic system and method for the present invention is further elaborated.Should be appreciated that specific embodiment described herein only in order to explain the present invention, be not intended to limit the present invention.

The embodiment of the present invention realizes a kind of new forms of energy and to dissolve panorama analytical method system and method, it is in conjunction with new forms of energy, the planning of traditional energy the whole network Construction of Unit, build the exploitation of panorama type to dissolve analysis platform, the new energy development that can realize multizone Multiple Time Scales is dissolved panorama analytical method, for new forms of energy planning of science activities and sound development provide technical support, comprehensive analytical calculation is carried out to the global index, reliability etc. of the entire system Technical Economy of the whole network unit after the extensive new forms of energy access of multizone, meets the needs of new power technical development.

In the embodiment of the present invention; for Wind turbines; the new forms of energy of embodiment of the present invention panorama analytical method system and method for dissolving is described in detail; but should be noted that; it is not limitation of the present invention; the present invention is equally applicable to the panorama analytical method of dissolving of the new forms of energy such as solar power generation unit, tidal power unit, and request protection range of the present invention, should be as the criterion with claim request protection range.

As shown in Figure 1, as a kind of embodiment, the new energy electric power reduction panorama analytic system of the embodiment of the present invention comprises input module 1, GENERATOR MAINTENANCE SCHEDULING IN module 2, Stochastic Production Simulation and unit commitment module 3;

Wherein:

Described input module 1, desired data parameter is analyzed for inputting, comprise New-energy power system generating set layout data and the transmission system layout data of generation of electricity by new energy unit and traditional energy generating set, the default technical costs parameter comprising the New-energy power system of generation of electricity by new energy unit, traditional energy generating set and transmission system, and default part throttle characteristics data and generation of electricity by new energy power producing characteristics data;

Preferably, as a kind of embodiment, the New-energy power system generating set layout data that described input module 1 inputs includes but not limited to the installation scale capacity of generation of electricity by new energy unit and traditional energy generating set, and sequential, layout, planning area, planning horizon; Transmission system layout data includes but not limited to transmission line electric pressure, transmission capacity and circuit landing point, and sequential, planning horizon; The technical costs parameter of described New-energy power system include but not limited to generating set maximum/minimum load, the constraint of climbing rate, the constraint of lower ratio of slope, forced outage rate, the time between overhauls(TBO), maintenance constraint, fixed operating cost with, variation operating cost, fuel cost, switching cost;

Described GENERATOR MAINTENANCE SCHEDULING IN module 2, for the technical costs parameter according to New-energy power system generating set layout data, New-energy power system, part throttle characteristics parameter and generation of electricity by new energy power producing characteristics data, calculate the GENERATOR MAINTENANCE SCHEDULING IN result of described New-energy power system;

Described GENERATOR MAINTENANCE SCHEDULING IN module 2 according to the generating set of New-energy power system maximum/the generating set technical costs data such as minimum load, forced outage rate, time between overhauls(TBO), and Sunday in load year characteristic and the part throttle characteristics data such as peak load, in conjunction with new forms of energy power producing characteristics data such as wind energy turbine set monthly average wind speed, calculate GENERATOR MAINTENANCE SCHEDULING IN result of calculation when the generation of electricity by new energy units such as wind-powered electricity generation access electric power system on a large scale;

Described Stochastic Production Simulation and unit commitment computing module 3, for the technical costs parameter according to described New-energy power system generating set layout data, electricity power system, part throttle characteristics parameter and generation of electricity by new energy power producing characteristics data, according to equivalent electric quantity frequency method, production simulation calculating is carried out to described New-energy power system, obtains the working train family data of described New-energy power system.

Described Stochastic Production Simulation and unit commitment computing module 3 are according to described New-energy power system generating set layout data, the technical costs parameter of electricity power system, part throttle characteristics parameter and generation of electricity by new energy power producing characteristics data, according to equivalent electric quantity frequency method, calculate described New-energy power system overall objective, reliability index, the i.e. production cost of New-energy power system, desired value that system charge is not enough, loss of load probability, expect start number of times and unit unit capacity stop frequency, and unit commitment data, as the working train family data of described new forms of energy power consumption analyzing and processing.

Preferably, as a kind of embodiment, the described new energy electric power reduction panorama analytic system of the embodiment of the present invention, also comprises Analysis of peak shaving module 4, frequency modulation analysis module, and 5 panorama type new forms of energy are dissolved scale computing module 6 and output module 7, wherein:

Described Analysis of peak shaving module 4, for according to maintenance scheduling and unit commitment data, the part throttle characteristics data of New-energy power system inputted and generation of electricity by new energy power producing characteristics data, select the period, the peak shaving ability of described New-energy power system analyzed and for target, described unit commitment data is adjusted with Preferred Acceptance new forms of energy electric power, obtaining Analysis of peak shaving adjustment result.

The unit commitment data point reuse of described Analysis of peak shaving module 4, according to the sequence of generating set fuel cost, adjustment does not also reach electric power unit output value in the New-energy power system of lower limit of exerting oneself, with Preferred Acceptance new forms of energy electric power for target adjusts described unit commitment data;

Described peak shaving capability analysis is a kind of prior art, as a kind of embodiment, the basic calculation of electric power system peak can be adopted to realize, therefore, repeat no more in embodiments of the present invention.

Described frequency modulation analysis module 5, for the data parameters inputted according to described input module, in conjunction with Analysis of peak shaving adjustment result, frequency modulation analysis is carried out to the frequency stabilization of described New-energy power system, Steam Generator in Load Follow, obtains the frequency modulation analysis result of described New-energy power system;

The New-energy power system generating set layout data comprising generation of electricity by new energy unit and traditional energy generating set that frequency modulation analysis module 5 inputs according to input module and transmission system layout data, defaultly comprise generation of electricity by new energy unit, the technical costs parameter of the New-energy power system of traditional energy generating set and transmission system, and default part throttle characteristics data and generation of electricity by new energy power producing characteristics data, set up the wind energy turbine set dynamic aggregation parameter model that electric power system frequency modulation analysis time domain simulation model comprises model class, fired power generating unit model, Hydropower Unit model, pumped storage unit model, nuclear power generating sets model, AC/DC transmission line model, load model etc., the frequency adjustment, voltage-regulation (reactive management), Generation Control etc. of control plane, and analyze time-domain-simulation analysis by frequency modulation, analyze containing extensive New-energy power system frequency stabilization, Steam Generator in Load Follow etc. such as wind-powered electricity generations,

Wherein, time-domain-simulation block mold is prior art, in the embodiment of the present invention, have employed dynamic aggregation parameter model process for the system frequency modulation wind energy turbine set model analyzed in time-domain-simulation block mold.

Described panorama type new forms of energy are dissolved scale computing module 6, to dissolve scale result of calculation for the new forms of energy calculated based on peak regulation and frequency modulation analysis.

In the embodiment of the present invention, as a kind of embodiment, panorama type new forms of energy are dissolved in scale computing module 6, new forms of energy based on frequency modulation analysis scale of dissolving calculates and first arranges frequency modulation event, namely classify according to 8760 hours of net load level to the whole year, reconfiguring is 10 intervals, and the interior hourage closest to the net load mean value in this interval in selection area is as typical period of time, then turn to 10 frequency modulation events by discrete for the net load change rate of these 10 typical period of time, therefore have 100 frequency modulation events; Then utilize Monte Carlo method, the history of coupling system load and output of wind electric field fluctuating range probability and prediction data, calculate the probability that each frequency modulation event occurs, and by frequency modulation simulation analysis, calculate each frequency modulation event and rear system frequency modulation threshold crossing time occurs; The described New-energy power system variable capacity that following calculating each frequency modulation event is corresponding, and the electricity corresponding to generation of electricity by new energy capacity discarded in New-energy power system under each frequency modulation event; Finally calculate the electricity corresponding to generation of electricity by new energy capacity discarded the whole year based on frequency modulation analysis, and exert oneself according to the generation of electricity by new energy theory in described new forms of energy power producing characteristics data and calculate generation of electricity by new energy and to dissolve scale.

Described output module 7, for exporting the result of described New-energy power system panorama analytical method.Described analysis result comprises the maintenance scheduling result of the described New-energy power system that new forms of energy access on a large scale, production cost, system charge is not enough desired value, loss of load probability, expectation start number of times and unit unit capacity stop frequency, unit commitment data, scale result of dissolving based on the new forms of energy of Analysis of peak shaving, to dissolve based on the new forms of energy of frequency modulation analysis scale result and frequency stability analysis result etc.

Output generator group maintenance scheduling module, Stochastic Production Simulation and unit commitment module, Analysis of peak shaving adjusting module, frequency modulation analysis module and panorama type new forms of energy are dissolved the result of calculation of scale computing module, comprise the maintenance scheduling that new forms of energy access electric power system on a large scale, production cost, desired value that system charge is not enough, loss of load probability, expect start number of times and unit unit capacity stop frequency, unit commitment, new forms of energy based on Analysis of peak shaving are dissolved scale result, new forms of energy based on frequency modulation analysis are dissolved scale result, and frequency stability analysis result etc.

As a kind of embodiment, the new energy electric power reduction panorama analytic system of the embodiment of the present invention, according to the New-energy power system generating set layout data and the transmission system layout data that comprise generation of electricity by new energy unit and traditional energy generating set, defaultly comprise generation of electricity by new energy unit, the technical costs parameter of the New-energy power system of traditional energy generating set and transmission system, and default part throttle characteristics data and new forms of energy power producing characteristics data calculate the production cost of described New-energy power system, desired value that system charge is not enough, loss of load probability, expect start number of times and unit unit capacity stop frequency, maintenance scheduling result and unit commitment data, thus obtain the economic index of New-energy power system, reliability index etc., and the new forms of energy calculated based on Analysis of peak shaving are dissolved, the Calculation results of scale result and unit commitment adjustment result, to dissolve based on the new forms of energy of frequency modulation analysis scale result and frequency stabilization, Steam Generator in Load Follow position etc., is obtained final result and is exported by output module.

Correspondingly, the embodiment of the present invention also provides a kind of new energy electric power reduction panorama analytic method, comprises the following steps:

Steps A, desired data parameter is analyzed in input, comprise New-energy power system generating set layout data and the transmission system layout data of generation of electricity by new energy unit and traditional energy generating set, the default technical costs parameter comprising the New-energy power system of generation of electricity by new energy unit, traditional energy generating set and transmission system, and default part throttle characteristics data and generation of electricity by new energy power producing characteristics data; ;

Step B, according to the technical costs parameter of described New-energy power system generating set layout data, New-energy power system, part throttle characteristics parameter and generation of electricity by new energy power producing characteristics data, calculates the maintenance scheduling result of described New-energy power system;

Preferably, as a kind of embodiment, described step B comprises following analytical calculation step:

Step B1, according to described New-energy power system generating set layout data, part throttle characteristics data, in conjunction with described generation of electricity by new energy power producing characteristics data, according to the maintenance order of generating set described in the unit capacity data of the generating set of described New-energy power system and the long-pending descending sequencing of the repair time of described generating set;

As a kind of embodiment, the repair time of described generating set can be that in 1 year, this generating set should stop producing the time span accepting maintenance.

Step B2, calculates the load of the generating set of described New-energy power system and each rank cumulant of generating set, obtains the lasting load curve result that each maintenance is interval;

Wherein, calculate the method for cumulant and to obtain lasting load curve result be prior art, therefore describe in detail no longer one by one in embodiments of the present invention.

In the embodiment of the present invention, utilize each rank cumulant of generation of electricity by new energy unit, describe the randomness of generation of electricity by new energy unit output.

Step B3, arranges the fixing lasting load curve overhauling the interval interior equivalence of (period such as selecting Wind turbines to exert oneself little according to the Seasonal Characteristics of wind farm wind velocity arranges the maintenance of wind energy turbine set) corrected Calculation maintenance according to generation of electricity by new energy power producing characteristics parameter by artificial;

Step B4, according to the order of the arrangement maintenance for generation companies that step B1 obtains, a generator in generating set in New-energy power system described in Stochastic choice, calculate the accumulative risk angle value in each maintenance period interval to be selected of this generator, the maintenance period selecting accumulative risk angle value minimum, the interval maintenance as this generator was interval;

As a kind of embodiment, be the accumulative risk degree of computing system, the relevant functional value put on the lasting load curve needing to calculate equivalence by each rank cumulant.

As a kind of embodiment, in the embodiment of the present invention, calculated the functional value of this Random Variable Distribution Function by each rank cumulant of stochastic variable, and adopt Gram-Charlier series expansion to calculate.Namely described Random Variable Distribution Function is expressed as the progression be made up of normal random variable all-order derivative, the coefficient of progression is then made up of each rank cumulant of this stochastic variable.

Concrete formula is as follows:

System accumulative risk degree=f (C _g)

In formula: C _gfor not arranging the total capacity of overhauling unit, g is integer, represents and does not arrange maintenance unit quantity; Function f (.) is Gram-Charlier series expansion.

$f\left(x\right)=\underset{\stackrel{\‾}{x}}{\overset{\∞}{\∫}}N\left(x\right)\mathrm{dx}+N\left(\stackrel{\‾}{x}\right)[\frac{g_3}{3!}{H}_2\left(\stackrel{\‾}{x}\right)+\frac{g_4}{4!}{H}_3\left(\stackrel{\‾}{x}\right)+\frac{g_5}{5!}{H}_4\left(\stackrel{\‾}{x}\right)+\frac{g_6+{10g}_3^2}{6!}{H}_5\left(\stackrel{\‾}{x}\right)$

$+\frac{g_7+35g_3{g}_4}{7!}{H}_6\left(\stackrel{\‾}{x}\right)+\frac{g_8+56g_3{g}_5+35g_4^2}{8!}{H}_7\left(\stackrel{\‾}{x}\right)+L]$

In formula: f (x) is the probability that stochastic variable value is more than or equal to x; N (x) is standard normal density function; hr (x) is Hermite multinomial; for normalization stochastic variable, μ is the desired value of random distribution.

Step B5, whether the maintenance interval selected by judgement meets maintenance constraint (comprising repair time, service ability, maintenance interval and year maintenance count constraint), if do not meet, judge whether next maintenance interval meets maintenance constraint, until determine that the maintenance of this generator is interval;

Maintenance constraint comprises repair time, ability, interval and year maintenance count constraint.These constrained parameters can be used as input parameter and obtain, and also directly can choose canonical parameter.

Step B6, interval for the maintenance determined in step B5, from the cumulant of the lasting load curve of equivalence, deduct the cumulant of the stoppage in transit capacity of this generator, revise the lasting load curve result of the equivalence in maintenance interval;

Step B7, according to the order of the arrangement maintenance for generation companies that step B1 obtains, selects next generator, repeats step B4 to step B6, and to the last a unit has arranged to overhaul interval, obtains the maintenance scheduling result of whole generating set, enters step C.

Step C, according to the technical costs parameter of described New-energy power system generating set layout data, electricity power system, part throttle characteristics parameter and generation of electricity by new energy power producing characteristics data, and described maintenance scheduling result, according to equivalent electric quantity frequency method, production simulation calculating is carried out to described New-energy power system, obtain the working train family data of described New-energy power system, comprise production cost, system charge deficiency desired value, loss of load probability, expectation start number of times and unit unit capacity stop frequency, and unit commitment data etc.

Preferably, as a kind of embodiment, described step C comprises the steps:

Step C1, according to generation of electricity by new energy power producing characteristics data, GENERATOR MAINTENANCE SCHEDULING IN result, simulation obtains wind energy turbine set sequential power curve;

As a kind of embodiment, described simulation wind energy turbine set sequential power curve step is as follows:

Step C11, according to the wind energy turbine set mean wind speed historical data in generation of electricity by new energy power producing characteristics data, utilizes Two-parameter Weibull Distribution model prediction wind farm wind velocity, produces the time series of wind speed.

Step C12, the wind unit maintenance scheduling result utilizing step B to obtain, and the Wind turbines forced outage rate in the technical costs parameter of described New-energy power system, the availability factor of every typhoon group of motors is sampled, obtains the Wind turbines number of units being in running status.

Method to the availability factor of Wind turbines is sampled: set Wind turbines outage rate as r.During each sampling, between [0,1], extract one obey equally distributed stochastic variable u, if u < is r, then think that this Wind turbines is in down state, otherwise, think that this Wind turbines is in upstate.

Step C13, normally runs the exerting oneself of Wind turbines under calculating wind speed time series according to Wind turbines output characteristic data;

Step C14, the described Wind turbines of cumulative normal operation is exerted oneself and is obtained wind energy turbine set sequential power curve;

Step C15, if the simulation of all time serieses is complete, simulation terminates; Otherwise, go to step C12, simulation future time point;

Step C2, is separated wind energy turbine set sequential power curve, obtains net load curve from lasting load curve;

Step C3, chooses suitable default step-length (being chosen as 1% of system total load), according to equivalent electric quantity frequency method, obtains initial equivalent electric quantity function and load transfer plan frequency function;

As a kind of embodiment, if original lasting load curve is F ⁽⁰⁾x (), corresponding electric quantity function is E ⁽⁰⁾k (), obtains the lasting load curve F of equivalence after having arranged the i-th-1 generating set to run ^(i-1)x (), corresponding equivalent electric quantity function is E ^(i-1)(k).

If the installed capacity of i-th generating set is C _i, forced outage rate is q _i, then arrangement i-th postrun equivalent electric quantity function of generating set is:

E ⁽ⁱ⁾(k)＝p _iE ^(i-1)(k)+q _iE ^(i-1)(k-m _i)

In formula: p _i=1-q _i; m _i=C _i/ Δ x (Δ x is step-length).

The lasting load curve F of equivalence is obtained after having arranged the i-th-1 generating set to run ^(i-1)x (), the load transfer plan frequency function of corresponding equivalence is then arrange the load transfer plan frequency function of i-th postrun equivalence of generating set for:

$f_e^{\left(i\right)}\left(k\right)=p_i{f}_e^{(i-1)}\left(k\right)+q_i{f}_e^{(i-1)}(k-m_i)+\frac{1}{{\mathrm{\&tau;}}_i}\{F^{(i-1)}(k-m_i)-F^{(i-1)}\left(k\right)\}---\left(5\right)$

In formula (5): τ _iit is the mean time between failures (MTBF) of i-th generating set.

Step C4, based on priority method, arranges each generator operation in the generating set of described New-energy power system successively, calculates its energy output and production cost;

As a kind of embodiment, described energy output is calculated as:

If the installed capacity of i-th generating set is C _i, forced outage rate is q _i, the energy output of i-th generating set according to equivalent electric quantity function E ^(i-l)k () calculates:

$E_{G_i}=p_i\underset{k_{i-1}+1}{\overset{k_i}{\mathrm{\&Sigma;}}}{E}^{(i-1)}\left(k\right)$

In formula: p _i=1-q _i; k _i-1=x _i-1/ Δ x; k _i=(x _i-1+ C _i)/Δ x.

As a kind of embodiment, described production cost is calculated as:

C _total＝C _fuel+C _O&M+C _UEC+C _envi+C _tsu+C _bsu+C _sd

In formula: C _fuelfor fuel cost; C _{o & M}for operation and maintenance cost; C _uECfor outage cod; C _envifor Environmental costs; C _tsufor the steam turbine payment for initiation of fired power generating unit is used; C _bsufor boiler startup expense; C _sdfor idleness expense.

Step C5, according to the described New-energy power system generating set start data arranged successively, revises equivalent electric quantity function and equivalent load frequency curve;

As a kind of embodiment, described in be modified to the calculating makeover process of equivalent electric quantity function and equivalent load frequency curve.

Step C6, judges whether whether all traditional energy generating sets are disposed, if otherwise get back to step C4; Otherwise enter step C7;

Step C7, calculates system charge not enough desired value EENS, the loss of load probability LOLP of described New-energy power system, expects start number of times with unit unit capacity stop frequency FGSUC, enter step D.

Wherein, as a kind of embodiment, described system charge is not enough, and desired value is:

Desired value that system charge is not enough $\mathrm{EENS}=\underset{k_n+1}{\overset{k_{\max }}{\mathrm{\&Sigma;}}}{E}^{\left(n\right)}\left(k\right)$

In formula: k _maxdiscrete variable value corresponding to electric power system peak load, i.e. k _max=< P _lmax/ Δ x >+1, P _lmaxfor electric power system peak load, Δ x is step-length; E ⁽ⁿ⁾k () has arranged postrun equivalent electric quantity function all for n platform unit.

Described loss of load probability is:

Loss of load probability $\mathrm{LOLP}\&cong;\frac{E^{\left(n\right)}\left(k_n\right)+E^{\left(n\right)}(k_n+1)}{2\mathrm{T\&Delta;x}}$

In formula: T is the time span of production simulation research, is preferably 1 year.

Described expectation start number of times is:

Expect number of times of starting shooting $F_i^s=p_{i}T\{f_e^{\left(i\right)}(k-K_i)+\frac{E^{\left(i\right)}(k-K_i)}{{\mathrm{\&tau;}}_i\mathrm{g\&Delta;x}}\}$

In formula: p _i=1-q _i, q _iit is the forced outage rate of i-th generating set; K _i=(x _i-1+ C _i)/Δ x; τ _iit is the mean time between failures (MTBF) of i-th generating set.

Described unit unit capacity stop frequency is:

Unit unit capacity stop frequency $\mathrm{FGSUC}=\frac{\underset{i=1}{\overset{n}{\mathrm{\&Sigma;}}}{F}_i^{s}g{C}_i}{\underset{i=1}{\overset{n}{\mathrm{\&Sigma;}}}{C}_i}$

In formula: p _i=1-q _i, C _iit is the installed capacity of i-th generating set.

Step D, according to part throttle characteristics data and the generation of electricity by new energy power producing characteristics data of maintenance scheduling result and unit commitment data, New-energy power system, as wind power output performance data, select the period, the peak shaving ability of described New-energy power system is analyzed and described unit commitment data are adjusted;

As a kind of embodiment, described step D comprises the steps:

Step D1, according to generating set fuel cost, on cost sorts each generating set;

Step D2, searches the generating set not meeting the constraint of climbing rate, revises it and exerts oneself and make its satisfied climbing rate constraint;

Step D3, amendment cost is higher, do not reach generating set exert oneself lower limit, meet the exerting oneself of generating set of climbing rate constraint, make it exert oneself and to balance each other with load;

Step D4, when generating set cannot carry out Steam Generator in Load Follow due to the restriction being subject to lower ratio of slope and minimum load, then discards a part of wind-powered electricity generation, records this and abandon the wind moment and abandon wind capacity, enter step e.

Using maintenance scheduling result and unit commitment data, part throttle characteristics data and wind power output performance data as input, adopt the basic calculation of existing electric power system peak, obtain the result of described peak shaving capability analysis, select the foundation of period as described choosing period of time of peak modulation capacity deficiency according to this result.

Wherein, the wind-powered electricity generation capacity discarded can set according to the not enough situation of peak.

Step e, according to the data parameters that described input module inputs, in conjunction with Analysis of peak shaving adjustment result, selects the described period, analyzes the frequency stabilization of New-energy power system, Steam Generator in Load Follow;

According to the New-energy power system generating set layout data comprising generation of electricity by new energy unit and traditional energy generating set and the transmission system layout data of input module input, defaultly comprise generation of electricity by new energy unit, the technical costs parameter of the New-energy power system of traditional energy generating set and transmission system, and default part throttle characteristics data and generation of electricity by new energy power producing characteristics data, set up electric power system frequency modulation and analyze time domain simulation model, comprise the wind energy turbine set dynamic aggregation parameter model of model class, fired power generating unit model, Hydropower Unit model, pumped storage unit model, nuclear power generating sets model, AC/DC transmission line model, load model etc., the frequency adjustment, voltage-regulation (reactive management), Generation Control etc. of control plane, and analyze time-domain-simulation analysis tool by frequency modulation, analyze containing extensive New-energy power system frequency stabilization, Steam Generator in Load Follow etc. such as wind-powered electricity generations,

Analyze in described step e, as a kind of embodiment, it utilizes Wind turbines to hive off and parameter aggregation method, analyzes, comprise the steps: in conjunction with the algebraically-differential equation power system dynamic model with continuously-discrete variable

Step e 1, utilize multimachine characterization method, there is close operating point as Wind turbines grouping method using Wind turbines, equivalent process is merged to the unit of same group, carry out Wind turbines classification indicators to build and polymerization parameter identification calculating, obtain the frequency modulation analysis result of equivalent polymerization parameter as described New-energy power system.

Described have close operating point, is to refer to that with a certain Wind turbines every other Wind turbines in predeterminable range is as operating point.

In the embodiment of the present invention, as a kind of embodiment, rotating speed is utilized to build Wind turbines classification indicators, shown in (1):

$\mathrm{\&tau;}={\mathrm{\&omega;}}_0+\mathrm{\&Delta;\&omega;}$

$=(1+\frac{U^2{r}_2-\sqrt{U^4{r}_2^2-4P_m^2{(x_1+x_2)}^2{r}_2^2}}{2P_m{(x_1+x_2)}^2})+\frac{K_s{T}_m\mathrm{at}\sqrt{c}+K_s{T}_{m}b\sin \left(t\sqrt{c}\right)}{2H_g\sqrt{c}}---\left(1\right)$

Wherein,

$a=\frac{H_g}{K_s(H_t+H_g)},$ $b=\frac{H_t}{K_s(H_t+H_g)},$ $c=\frac{K_s(H_t+H_g)}{2H_t{H}_g}$

In formula, τ is group of planes classification indicators; ω ₀for the incremental speed that initial speed, Δ ω are during disturbance; x ₁, x ₂be respectively generator unit stator reactance and rotor reactance; r ₂for generator amature resistance; S is slip; U is generator terminal voltage; P _mfor mechanical output; H _t, H _gbe respectively the rotor inertia time constant of wind energy conversion system and generator; T _m, T _ebe respectively the machine torque of wind energy conversion system and the electromagnetic torque of generator; K _sfor axis rigidity coefficient; T is disturbance duration.

As a kind of embodiment, in the invention process, carry out polymerization parameter identification calculate concrete steps as follows:

As shown in Figure 2, be principle schematic that the polymerization parameter identification of speed-changing draught fan calculates.

Detailed blower fan model and equivalent blower fan model are at same test wind speed v _wunder the effect of (t), produce detailed model output signal P (t) and Equivalent Model output signal P _eq(t).Definition cost function E (θ) is such as formula shown in (2):

$E\left(\mathrm{\&theta;}\right)={\left(\underset{k=1}{\overset{N}{\mathrm{\&Sigma;}}}{(P\left(t_k\right)-P_{\mathrm{eq}}(t_k,\mathrm{\&theta;}))}^2\right)}^{\frac{1}{2}}---\left(2\right)$

T in formula _kfor the sampling time, N is sample size.

Carrying out identification through formula (2) and calculate E (θ), then revising Equivalent Model parameter, by iterating, until search out one group of polymerization parameter θ ₀make cost function minimum, then θ ₀it is exactly equivalent polymerization parameter.

Step e 2, utilizes the algebraically-differential equation power system dynamic model with continuously-discrete variable of formula (3) ~ (6) to carry out frequency modulation analysis.

0＝g[x(t)，y(t)，z _c(t)，z _d(t)，u(t)] (4)

$z_d\left(t_d^{+}\right)=h_d[x\left(t\right),y\left(t\right),z_c\left(t\right),z_d\left(t_d^{-}\right),u\left(t\right)]---\left(6\right)$

Wherein, in formula (3) ~ (6), x is electrical power system transient variable column vector; Y is the column vector be made up of node voltage amplitude and phase angle algebraic variable; z _cfor continuous state variable column vector; z _dfor discrete state variable column vector, it is at moment t _dexperience one from arrive spline smoothing; U is the column vector that control variables is formed.

Formula (3) is used for representing the equilibrium equation of synchronous generator and wind-driven generator etc.; Formula (4) represents electric power networks equation; Formula (5) describes the continuous dynamic process changed at a slow speed, as the mechanical transient process of wind-driven generator; Formula (6) describes Discrete Dynamic event, as on-load voltage regulation transformer action etc.

By carrying out numerical computations to described New-energy power system dynamic model, the variation track of operation states of electric power system can be obtained, wherein contain the change procedure of power system frequency, whether meet power system stability service requirement by the amplitude of variation of system frequency during observing the emulation of described New-energy power system dynamic model, the analysis result whether New-energy power system possesses frequency stability can be obtained.

Step F, based on Analysis of peak shaving adjustment result and frequency modulation analysis result, the new forms of energy such as wind-powered electricity generation calculated based on peak regulation and frequency modulation analysis are dissolved scale result of calculation.

Step F 1, what obtain according to step D abandons the wind moment and abandons wind capacity, what calculate (being generally 1 year) in the default research period based on Analysis of peak shaving abandons wind-powered electricity generation amount, and exerts oneself according to the generation of electricity by new energy theory in described new forms of energy power producing characteristics data and calculate generation of electricity by new energy and to dissolve scale;

Step F 2, frequency modulation event is set, namely according to net load level, the hourage of the whole year is reconfigured as M (as 10) are interval, and the interior hourage closest to the net load mean value in this interval in selection area is as typical period of time, then N number of (as 10) frequency modulation event is turned to by discrete for the net load change rate of this M typical period of time, therefore total M × N number of frequency modulation event;

Step F 3, utilizes Monte Carlo method (Monte Carlo), the history of coupling system load and output of wind electric field fluctuating range probability and prediction data, calculates the probability that each frequency modulation event occurs;

Step F 4, by frequency modulation simulation analysis, calculates each frequency modulation event and rear system frequency modulation threshold crossing time occurs;

Frequency modulation simulation analysis is complete, namely can obtain system frequency modulation threshold crossing time, and system frequency modulation threshold crossing time refers under frequency modulation event, system by steady operational status to the time span losing frequency stabilization process and experience.

Step F 5, calculates the described New-energy power system variable capacity that each frequency modulation event is corresponding, shown in (7):

In formula, the quantity of n---fired power generating unit and Hydropower Unit

The quantity of m---pump-storage generator

The lower ratio of slope of Ramp---all types of generating set

Δ t---system frequency threshold crossing time

P _i, p _j---generating set is at the switch on condition of this typical period of time

Step F 6, what calculate New-energy power system under each frequency modulation event abandons wind-powered electricity generation amount:

C=0.5 × (Δ P-P _adjustable) ²/ Ramp _total

In formula, Δ P---the slippage of net load in frequency modulation event

Ramp _total---the total lower ratio of slope of all types of generating set

Step F 7, abandon wind-powered electricity generation amount the whole year calculated based on frequency modulation analysis, shown in (8):

$W=\underset{j=1}{\overset{M}{\mathrm{\&Sigma;}}}{m}_j(\underset{i=1}{\overset{N}{\mathrm{\&Sigma;}}}{P}_{j,i}\&CenterDot;C_{j,i})---\left(8\right)$

In formula, P _{j, i}---i-th frequency modulation event occurs in the probability (step F 3 obtains) of typical period of time in a jth interval

C _{j, i}---what i-th frequency modulation event occurred in that typical period of time in a jth interval produces abandons wind-powered electricity generation amount

M _j---a jth interval time hop count comprised.

Step G, the analysis result of described New-energy power system, include but not limited to that new forms of energy access the maintenance scheduling result of electric power system, production cost, system charge is not enough desired value, loss of load probability, expectation start number of times and unit unit capacity stop frequency, unit commitment data, scale result of dissolving based on the new forms of energy such as wind-powered electricity generation of Analysis of peak shaving, scale result of dissolving based on the new forms of energy such as wind-powered electricity generation of frequency modulation analysis on a large scale, and frequency stability analysis result etc.

The new energy electric power reduction panorama analytic system and method for the embodiment of the present invention, by the maintenance calculating of the generation of electricity by new energy model insertion New-energy power systems such as wind-powered electricity generation, Stochastic Production Simulation and unit commitment calculating, Analysis of peak shaving and frequency modulation analysis, and new forms of energy scale of dissolving calculates, the panorama analytical method treatment system that the new forms of energy large-scale development containing the comprehensive all the period of time of systems organization, operation, scheduling and Nian Zhouyue day minute (interior) level obtaining the new forms of energy access electric power systems such as large-scale wind power is dissolved and method.And the embodiment of the present invention can be dissolved scale according to the new forms of energy obtained under Different time scales such as the analysis result of peak-frequency regulation etc.The embodiment of the present invention is that the analysis of dissolving of the new forms of energy large-scale development of multizone Multiple Time Scales provides effective means, significantly solves the Comprehensive Evaluation Problem that new forms of energy large-scale development is dissolved.

Finally it should be noted that obviously, those skilled in the art can carry out various change and modification to the present invention and not depart from the spirit and scope of the present invention.Like this, if these amendments of the present invention and modification belong within the scope of the claims in the present invention and equivalent technologies thereof, then the present invention is also intended to comprise these change and modification.

Claims (12)

1. a new energy electric power reduction panorama analytic system, it is characterized in that, comprise input module, electric system generator group maintenance scheduling module, Stochastic Production Simulation and unit commitment module, Analysis of peak shaving module, frequency modulation analysis module, panorama type generation of electricity by new energy is dissolved scale computing module and output module, wherein:

Described input module, desired data parameter is analyzed for inputting, comprise New-energy power system generating set layout data and the transmission system layout data of generation of electricity by new energy unit and traditional energy generating set, the default technical costs parameter comprising the New-energy power system of generation of electricity by new energy unit, traditional energy generating set and transmission system, and default part throttle characteristics data and generation of electricity by new energy power producing characteristics data;

Described GENERATOR MAINTENANCE SCHEDULING IN module, for the technical costs parameter according to described New-energy power system generating set layout data, New-energy power system, part throttle characteristics data and generation of electricity by new energy power producing characteristics data, calculate the GENERATOR MAINTENANCE SCHEDULING IN result of described New-energy power system;

Described Stochastic Production Simulation and unit commitment module, for the technical costs parameter according to described New-energy power system generating set layout data, New-energy power system, part throttle characteristics data and generation of electricity by new energy power producing characteristics data, and in conjunction with the maintenance scheduling result that described GENERATOR MAINTENANCE SCHEDULING IN module calculates, according to equivalent electric quantity frequency method, production simulation calculating is carried out to described New-energy power system, obtains the working train family data of described New-energy power system;

Described Analysis of peak shaving module, for the technical costs parameter according to the unit commitment data in maintenance scheduling and described working train family data, New-energy power system, part throttle characteristics data and generation of electricity by new energy power producing characteristics data, select the period, the peak shaving ability of described New-energy power system is analyzed, and receive new forms of energy electric power to adjust described unit commitment data for target preferentially to meet, obtain Analysis of peak shaving adjustment result;

Described frequency modulation analysis module, for the data parameters inputted according to described input module, in conjunction with Analysis of peak shaving adjustment result, analyzes the frequency stabilization of described New-energy power system, Steam Generator in Load Follow, obtains frequency modulation analysis result;

Described panorama type generation of electricity by new energy is dissolved scale computing module, to dissolve scale result of calculation for the generation of electricity by new energy calculated based on peak regulation and frequency modulation analysis;

Described output module, for exporting analysis result.

2. new energy electric power reduction panorama analytic system according to claim 1, it is characterized in that, described working train family data, comprise production cost, system charge deficiency desired value, loss of load probability, expectation start number of times and unit unit capacity stop frequency, and unit commitment data.

3. new energy electric power reduction panorama analytic system according to claim 1, it is characterized in that, the data that described input module inputs and parameter comprise the New-energy power system generating set layout data and transmission system layout data that comprise generation of electricity by new energy unit and traditional energy generating set, the default technical costs parameter comprising the New-energy power system of generation of electricity by new energy unit, traditional energy generating set and transmission system, and default part throttle characteristics data and generation of electricity by new energy power producing characteristics data;

Wherein, described New-energy power system generating set layout data comprises the installation scale capacity of generation of electricity by new energy unit and traditional energy generating set, and sequential, layout, planning area, planning horizon; Transmission system layout data comprises transmission line electric pressure, transmission capacity and circuit landing point, and sequential, planning horizon; The technical costs parameter of described New-energy power system comprise generating set maximum/minimum load, the constraint of climbing rate, the constraint of lower ratio of slope, forced outage rate, the time between overhauls(TBO), maintenance constraint, fixed operating cost with, variation operating cost, fuel cost, switching cost.

4. new energy electric power reduction panorama analytic system according to claim 1, it is characterized in that, the described analysis result that described output module exports comprises new forms of energy and accesses maintenance scheduling result, the production cost of electric power system, system charge is not enough desired value, loss of load probability, expectation start number of times and unit unit capacity stop frequency, unit commitment data, scale result of dissolving based on the generation of electricity by new energy of Analysis of peak shaving, to dissolve based on the generation of electricity by new energy of frequency modulation analysis scale result and frequency stability analysis result on a large scale.

5. a new energy electric power reduction panorama analytic method, is characterized in that, comprises the following steps:

Steps A, desired data parameter is analyzed in input, comprise New-energy power system generating set layout data and the transmission system layout data of generation of electricity by new energy unit and traditional energy generating set, the default technical costs parameter comprising the New-energy power system of generation of electricity by new energy unit, traditional energy generating set and transmission system, and default part throttle characteristics data and generation of electricity by new energy power producing characteristics data;

Step B, according to the technical costs parameter of described New-energy power system generating set layout data, New-energy power system, part throttle characteristics data and generation of electricity by new energy power producing characteristics data, calculates the maintenance scheduling result of described New-energy power system;

Step C, according to described New-energy power system generating set layout data, technical costs parameter, part throttle characteristics data and generation of electricity by new energy power producing characteristics data, and described maintenance scheduling result, according to equivalent electric quantity frequency method, production simulation calculating is carried out to described New-energy power system, obtains the working train family data of described New-energy power system;

Step D, according to the technical costs parameter of the unit commitment data in maintenance scheduling result and described working train family data, New-energy power system, part throttle characteristics data and generation of electricity by new energy power producing characteristics data, select the period, the peak modulation capacity of described New-energy power system is analyzed, and described unit commitment data are adjusted, obtain Analysis of peak shaving adjustment result;

Step e, according to the described analysis desired data parameter of input, in conjunction with Analysis of peak shaving adjustment result, carries out frequency modulation analysis again to the frequency stabilization of described New-energy power system, Steam Generator in Load Follow, obtains the frequency modulation analysis result of described New-energy power system;

Step F, based on Analysis of peak shaving adjustment result and frequency modulation analysis result, the generation of electricity by new energy calculated based on peak regulation and frequency modulation analysis is dissolved scale result of calculation;

Step G, exports analysis result.

6. new energy electric power reduction panorama analytic method according to claim 5, it is characterized in that, described working train family data comprise production cost, system charge is not enough desired value, loss of load probability, expectation start number of times and unit unit capacity stop frequency, and unit commitment data.

7. new energy electric power reduction panorama analytic method according to claim 5, is characterized in that, described step B comprises following analytical calculation step:

Step B1, according to described New-energy power system generating set layout data, part throttle characteristics data, in conjunction with described generation of electricity by new energy power producing characteristics data, according to the maintenance order of generating set described in the unit capacity data of the generating set of described New-energy power system and the long-pending descending sequencing of the repair time of described generating set;

Step B2, calculates each rank cumulant of described New-energy power system load and generating set, obtains the equivalent load duration curve that each maintenance is interval;

Step B3, calculates the interval interior equivalent load duration curve of maintenance according to generation of electricity by new energy power producing characteristics data correction;

Step B4, according to the order of the arrangement maintenance for generation companies that step B1 obtains, a generator in New-energy power system described in Stochastic choice, calculate the system accumulative risk angle value in each maintenance period interval to be selected, the maintenance period selecting accumulative risk angle value minimum, the interval maintenance as this generator was interval;

Step B5, whether the maintenance interval selected by judgement meets maintenance constraint, if do not meet, judges whether next maintenance interval meets maintenance constraint, until determine that the maintenance of this generator is interval;

Step B6, interval for the maintenance determined in step B5, from the cumulant of the lasting load curve of equivalence, deduct the cumulant of this generator stoppage in transit capacity, revise the lasting load curve of the equivalence in maintenance interval;

Step B7, according to the order of the arrangement maintenance for generation companies that step B1 obtains, selects next generator, repeats step B4 to step B6, and to the last a unit has arranged to overhaul interval, obtains the maintenance scheduling result arrangement of whole generating set, enters step C.

8. new energy electric power reduction panorama analytic method according to claim 5, is characterized in that, described step C comprises following analytical calculation step:

Step C1, according to generation of electricity by new energy power producing characteristics data, GENERATOR MAINTENANCE SCHEDULING IN result, simulation obtains new energy electric field sequential power curve;

Step C2, is separated new energy electric field sequential power curve, obtains net load curve from lasting load curve;

Step C3, chooses default step-length, according to equivalent electric quantity frequency method, obtains equivalent electric quantity function and equivalent load frequency curve;

Step C4, arranges each generator operation in the generating set of New-energy power system successively, calculates its energy output and production cost;

Step C5, according to the described New-energy power system generating set start data arranged successively, revises equivalent electric quantity function and equivalent load frequency curve;

Step C6, judges whether that the start of all traditional energy generating sets arranges processed complete, if not, then gets back to step C4; If so, then step C7 is entered;

Step C7, calculates the expected loss of energy of described New-energy power system, loss of load probability, expectation start number of times and unit unit capacity stop frequency, enters step D.

9. new energy electric power reduction panorama analytic method according to claim 5, is characterized in that, described step D, comprises following preferentially to meet the step of receiving new forms of energy electric power to adjust described unit commitment data for target:

Step D1, according to generating set fuel cost, on cost sorts each generating set;

Step D2, searches the generating set not meeting the constraint of climbing rate, revises it and exerts oneself and make its satisfied climbing rate constraint;

Step D3, amendment cost is higher, do not reach generating set exert oneself lower limit, meet the exerting oneself of generating set of Climing constant, make it exert oneself and to balance each other with load;

Step D4, when generating set cannot carry out Steam Generator in Load Follow due to the restriction being subject to lower ratio of slope and minimum load, then discards part generation of electricity by new energy capacity, records this moment and generation of electricity by new energy capacity of abandoning, enter step e.

10. new energy electric power reduction panorama analytic method according to claim 9, it is characterized in that, in described step e, described frequency modulation analysis is analyze time domain simulation model based on electric power system frequency modulation, and utilizes generation of electricity by new energy machine component group and parameter aggregation method to carry out frequency modulation analysis.

11. new energy electric power reduction panorama analytic methods according to claim 5, it is characterized in that, described step F, comprises the steps:

Step F 1, the moment discarding part generation of electricity by new energy capacity obtained according to step D and capacity data, calculate based on the electricity corresponding to the generation of electricity by new energy capacity discarded in institute's preset period of time of Analysis of peak shaving, and exert oneself according to the generation of electricity by new energy theory in described generation of electricity by new energy power producing characteristics data and calculate generation of electricity by new energy and to dissolve scale;

Step F 2, frequency modulation event is set, namely according to net load level, the hourage of the whole year is reconfigured as M interval, and the interior hourage closest to the net load mean value in this interval in selection area is as typical period of time, then N number of frequency modulation event is turned to by discrete for the net load change rate of this M typical period of time, therefore total M × N number of frequency modulation event;

Step F 3, utilizes Monte Carlo method, the history of coupling system load and output of wind electric field fluctuating range probability and prediction data, calculates the probability that each frequency modulation event occurs;

Step F 4, by frequency modulation simulation analysis, calculates each frequency modulation event and rear system frequency modulation threshold crossing time occurs;

Step F 5, calculates the described New-energy power system variable capacity that each frequency modulation event is corresponding;

Step F 6, calculates the electricity corresponding to generation of electricity by new energy capacity discarded in New-energy power system under each frequency modulation event;

Step F 7, calculates the electricity corresponding to generation of electricity by new energy capacity discarded the whole year based on frequency modulation analysis, and exerts oneself according to the generation of electricity by new energy theory in described generation of electricity by new energy power producing characteristics data and calculate generation of electricity by new energy and to dissolve scale.

12. new energy electric power reduction panorama analytic methods according to claim 5, it is characterized in that, the described analysis result that described step G exports comprises new forms of energy and accesses maintenance scheduling result, the production cost of electric power system, system charge is not enough desired value, loss of load probability, expectation start number of times and unit unit capacity stop frequency, unit commitment data, scale result of dissolving based on the generation of electricity by new energy of Analysis of peak shaving, to dissolve based on the generation of electricity by new energy of frequency modulation analysis scale result and frequency stability analysis result on a large scale.