CN102681035B - Method for realizing error prediction by combining tangent method and tropical cyclone prediction path - Google Patents
Method for realizing error prediction by combining tangent method and tropical cyclone prediction path Download PDFInfo
- Publication number
- CN102681035B CN102681035B CN 201210155515 CN201210155515A CN102681035B CN 102681035 B CN102681035 B CN 102681035B CN 201210155515 CN201210155515 CN 201210155515 CN 201210155515 A CN201210155515 A CN 201210155515A CN 102681035 B CN102681035 B CN 102681035B
- Authority
- CN
- China
- Prior art keywords
- circle
- prediction
- error range
- forecast
- hours
- Prior art date
- Legal status (The legal status is an assumption and is not a legal conclusion. Google has not performed a legal analysis and makes no representation as to the accuracy of the status listed.)
- Active
Links
Images
Landscapes
- Management, Administration, Business Operations System, And Electronic Commerce (AREA)
Abstract
The invention relates to a method for realizing error prediction by combining a tangent method and a tropical cyclone prediction path. The method comprises the steps of providing a current position point and a plurality of prediction nodes with the quantity of an integer number, creating an error range circle for each prediction node, joining tangent lines of the error range circles of two adjacent different prediction nodes by utilizing a circular tangent method and adopting the current position point as a starting point, forming an error range circle, and effectively verifying the accuracy of the future prediction data through the error range circle. The accuracy of the future prediction data is effectively verified through the error range circle, so that the application reference added value of the prediction data can be improved, and a more-intuitive exhibition application effect can be realized. Meanwhile, the controllability of the prediction range of the future prediction data by tropical cyclone prediction personnel can be improved, the prediction of the dotted line is upgraded to the regional prediction, and the prediction amplitude and anticipation degree are more complete.
Description
Technical field
The present invention relates to flood control informationization and meteorological application, particularly a kind of application process of tangential method in conjunction with tropical cyclone forecast path implement prediction error scope that utilize.
Background technology
When existing Tropical Cyclone Route displaying and individual's forecast path, usually all adopt following steps to be showed:
1, receiving meteorological department issues longitude, latitude, central pressure, center wind speed, translational speed that each time carves, affects the information such as solar or lunar halo;
2, the information such as the reception forecast longitude of following 24 hours, 48 hours, 72 hours, latitude, central pressure, center wind speed;
3, the historical path data of each time being carved and forecast path data form a point set of arranging in chronological order;
4, by point set, the node mode that Makes Path carries out combination by historical latitude and longitude information by solid wire, and by the GIS mode, path is shown.
5,, by point set, will forecast routing information by a dotted line or different colours is connected and shows.
6, Tropical Cyclone Route needs the individual to give the correct time in advance, is also to adopt first the information such as the longitude and latitude of determining 24,48,72,96,120 hours and wind-force, wind speed, and the rower of going forward side by side plots line to be showed.The Tropical Cyclone Route data form shows as shown in Figure 1.
Existing tropical cyclone route display mode, longitude and latitude that can history is frequent and the tendency of predictions for future are showed intuitively.But all there is very large error in the forecast path usually, likely can depart from original forecast circuit, this just allows flood control client and meteorological client in informationization application and decision-making, has reduced the reference significance to these data.How could allow these data that better reference significance is arranged, how allow the individual carry out path and give the correct time in advance, consider the combination of its error range, so, a kind of application process of tangential method in conjunction with tropical cyclone forecast path implement prediction error scope that utilize proposed.
Summary of the invention
The purpose of this invention is to provide a kind of method of tangential method in conjunction with tropical cyclone forecast path implement prediction error of utilizing, can realize the accuracy of predictions for future data is carried out to effective verification, improve the application reference added value of forecast data.
The present invention adopts following scheme to realize: a kind of method of tangential method in conjunction with tropical cyclone forecast path implement prediction error of utilizing, comprise current location point and an integer forecast node are provided, it is characterized in that: by for each forecast node, creating the error range circle, utilize the circle tangential method, the current location point of take forecasts that as working the adjacent difference of the two-phase of naming a person for a particular job the tangent line of the error range circle of nodes couples together, form a prediction error scope circle, by this prediction error scope circle, the accuracy of predictions for future data is carried out to effective verification.
In an embodiment of the present invention, described error range circle is that to take corresponding forecast node be the center of circle, and the milimeter number set according to the Practical Meteorological Requirements situation of take is created as radius.
In an embodiment of the present invention, the account form of described prediction error scope circle comprises the following steps:
Step 1: described integer forecast node and error range radius of a circle are set, and take this forecast node is the center of circle, creates error range and justifies;
Step 2: build the round outer tangent line of circle of error range that first of described current location point and described forecast node forecasts that node is set up;
Step 3: the tangent line that builds described two adjacent error range circles;
Step 4: the tangent line of structure is connected in turn and forms the error range circle, and the zone that this prediction error scope circle is covered deposits a set in, and this set is plotted on a GIS map.
In an embodiment of the present invention, described error range circle comprises the forecast node error range circle in 24 hours, 48 hours, 72 hours, 96 hours future and 120 hours; Radius corresponding to each circle is respectively: 140 kilometers, 240 kilometers, 360 kilometers, 480 kilometers and 600 kilometers.
The invention has the beneficial effects as follows: utilize point and the outer tangent line of circle and the tropical meteorological forecast tracking error scope circle of circumscribed line computation of circle and circle, general this error range circle can carry out effective verification to the accuracy of predictions for future data, improve the application reference added value of forecast data, possess more intuitive displaying effect on effect.Simultaneously, also increased the controllability of tropical cyclone forecast personnel to predictions for future data forecast scope, will be upgraded to from the forecast of dotted line regional forecast, amplitude and the participation of forecast are more comprehensive.
The accompanying drawing explanation
Fig. 1 is that traditional ligament trajectory of cyclone data form exploded view.
Fig. 2 is the connection status schematic diagram of embodiment of the present invention error range circle.
Fig. 3 is the regional calculation flow chart of current location point and 24 hours prediction error range circle.
Fig. 4 is the regional calculating chart of current location point and 24 hours prediction error range circle.
Fig. 5 is the regional calculation flow chart between adjacent two forecast point tolerance range circle.
Fig. 6 is the calculating chart at P1 point of contact and P2 point of contact in Fig. 5.
Fig. 7 is the calculating chart at P3 point of contact and P4 point of contact in Fig. 5.
Wherein, 1,21 is the current location point; 2,22 is 24 hours forecast nodes; 3,23 is 48 hours forecast nodes; 4,24 is 72 hours forecast nodes.
Embodiment
Below in conjunction with drawings and Examples, the present invention will be further described.
The present embodiment provides a kind of method of tangential method in conjunction with tropical cyclone forecast path implement prediction error of utilizing, comprise current location point and an integer forecast node are provided, the method is by creating the error range circle for each forecast node, utilize the circle tangential method, the current location point of take forecasts that as working the adjacent difference of the two-phase of naming a person for a particular job the tangent line of the error range circle of nodes couples together, form a prediction error scope circle, by this prediction error scope circle, the accuracy of predictions for future data is carried out to effective verification.Described error range circle is that to take corresponding forecast node be the center of circle, and the milimeter number set according to the Practical Meteorological Requirements situation of take is created as radius.
In the present embodiment, the account form of described prediction error scope circle comprises the following steps:
Step 1: described integer forecast node and error range radius of a circle are set, and take this forecast node is the center of circle, creates error range and justifies;
Step 2: build the round outer tangent line of circle of error range that first of described current location point and described forecast node forecasts that node is set up;
Step 3: the tangent line that builds described two adjacent error range circles;
Step 4: the tangent line of structure is connected in turn and forms the error range circle, and the zone that this error range circle is covered deposits a set in, and this set is plotted on a GIS map.
Concrete, the forecast node error range circle of take here 24,48,72,96,120 hours is example, is elaborated, and is stressed that, this explanation is only in order to allow those skilled in the art better understand the present invention, but not as limit.
The zone that prediction error scope circle of the present invention covers, be all can reference value region, in the account form of being forecast tracking error scope circle, can be operated according to the following steps flow process:
1, the set of initialization forecast path domain circle, delete the set of forecasting path last time, creates new scope set;
2, the forecast node error radius of a circle milimeter number of 24,48,72,96,120 hours is carried out to initialization, the acquiescence error radius is: within 24 hours, be within 140 kilometers, 48 hours, be within 240 kilometers, 72 hours, be within 360 kilometers, 96 hours, be 480 kilometers, 120 hours be 600 kilometers; Carry out node and give the correct time in advance, can revise corresponding error-circular radius milimeter number according to the Practical Meteorological Requirements situation;
3, form the prediction error circle of each forecast node by forecast node and prediction error radius milimeter number;
4, utilize outer tangent line formula between circle of uncertainty utilization point that the forecast point of current location point and 24 hours sets up and circle to be calculated, result is deposited in set;
5, for the error range circle of setting up between 24 hours and 48 hours, 48 hours and 72 hours, 72 hours and 96 hours, 96 hours and 120 hours, utilize circle and the outer tangent line formula between round to be calculated, result deposits in set;
6, forecast path domain circle set drafting, its result is plotted on the GIS map.
Wherein between above-mentioned steps 4 mid points and circle, circumscribed line computation mode please refer to Fig. 3 and Fig. 4; In Fig. 3:
Step 31: the latitude and longitude value by forecast node P and forecast center of circle C is calculated the distance B between the two;
Step 32: the right-angle triangle that radius of circle R and distance B form, calculate by Math.asin the deviation angle value a that radius is corresponding;
Step 33: the parallel X transverse axis line X ' put by forecast, and the right-angle triangle of the perpendicular line of the forecast center of circle and X ' line formation, deduct by the center of circle C ordinate value height value that forecast P point ordinate value obtains H, center of circle C abscissa value deducts P point abscissa value and obtains the length value of M, and utilizes Math.atan to calculate deviation angle b;
Step 34: by hooking a burst principle, utilize distance B, radius R calculates the distance L of tangent line, and, by utilizing deviation angle a to deduct deviation angle b, obtains the linear angled e of tangent line and X ';
Step 35: do a tangent point P1 and the perpendicular line that X ' line intersects, utilize tangent distance L and deviation angle e, by Math.sin and Math.cos, calculate respectively deflected length Dx and Dy;
Step 36: the transverse and longitudinal coordinate of orderring by P adds off-set value Dx, and Dy has obtained point of contact P1 transverse and longitudinal coordinate figure, utilizes above the same manner to calculate the transverse and longitudinal coordinate figure that tangent line P2 is ordered, and utilizes above the same manner to calculate the transverse and longitudinal coordinate that tangent line P2 is ordered, and is depicted as line.
In wherein said step 5, for the error range circle of setting up between 24 hours and 48 hours, 48 hours and 72 hours, 72 hours and 96 hours, 96 hours and 120 hours, the mode of utilizing circle and outer tangent line formula between round to be calculated please refer to Fig. 5, Fig. 6 and Fig. 7.Specifically comprise the following steps:
Step 51: utilize forecast center of circle C1 and the C2 of two circles, draw two X1 line and X2 lines that are parallel to X-axis, and calculate the center of circle distance B between the two by the latitude and longitude value of two forecast center of circle C1 and C2;
Step 52: deduct center of circle C1 ordinate value by center of circle C2 ordinate value and obtain height difference H between the two, and utilize center of circle distance B, the Math.asin method is calculated deviation angle a;
Step 53: calculate the difference R ' of two radius of circles, and utilize center of circle distance B, Math.asin method to calculate corresponding deviation angle b;
Step 54: due to symmetrical reason, the deviation angle value of b ' is identical with b, deviation angle a is deducted to deviation angle b simultaneously, obtains deviation angle e;
Step 55: by 90 degree values, add that deviation angle a adds that deviation angle b ' obtains the deviation angle f1 at first circle C1 point of contact, obtains circle C2 point of contact deviation angle f2 by parallel principle consistent with f1;
Step 56: utilize the radius value R1 of deviation angle value f1 and forecast circle C1, calculate point of contact off-set value Dx1 and the Dy1 of circle C1 by Math.cos and Math.sin, in like manner obtain point of contact off-set value Dx2 and the Dy2 of C2;
Step 57: the transverse and longitudinal coordinate by center of circle C1 adds off-set value Dx1, and Dy1 has obtained point of contact P1 transverse and longitudinal coordinate figure, in like manner obtains point of contact P2 transverse and longitudinal coordinate figure, and is depicted as line;
Step 58: utilize deviation angle e to deduct the deviation angle f3 that 90 degree obtain second point of contact of circle C1, obtain f3 by parallel principle consistent with the point of contact deviation angle f4 of circle C2;
Step 59: in like manner, utilize deviation angle f3 and the radius R 1 of circle C1 to calculate the offset value of point of contact P3, utilize deviation angle f4 and the radius R 2 of circle C2 to calculate the offset value of point of contact P4;
Step 60: by the coordinate figure in two centers of circle, add corresponding offset value, obtain P3, the transverse and longitudinal coordinate figure at P4 point of contact, and be depicted as line.In above-mentioned steps, Math. is the acute pyogenic infection of finger tip trigonometric function.
The foregoing is only preferred embodiment of the present invention, all equalizations of doing according to the present patent application the scope of the claims change and modify, and all should belong to covering scope of the present invention.
Claims (3)
1. one kind is utilized the method for tangential method in conjunction with tropical cyclone forecast path implement prediction error, comprise current location point and an integer forecast node are provided, it is characterized in that: by for each forecast node, creating the error range circle, utilize the circle tangential method, the current location point of take forecasts that as working the adjacent difference of the two-phase of naming a person for a particular job the tangent line of the error range circle of nodes couples together, form a prediction error scope circle, by this prediction error scope circle, the accuracy of predictions for future data is carried out to effective verification; Described error range circle is that to take corresponding forecast node be the center of circle, and the milimeter number set according to the Practical Meteorological Requirements situation of take is created as radius.
2. the tangential method that utilizes according to claim 1 forecasts the method for path implement prediction error in conjunction with tropical cyclone, and it is characterized in that: the account form of described prediction error scope circle comprises the following steps:
Step 1: described integer forecast node and error range radius of a circle are set, and take this forecast node is the center of circle, creates error range and justifies;
Step 2: build the round outer tangent line of circle of error range that first of described current location point and described forecast node forecasts that node is set up;
Step 3: the tangent line that builds described two adjacent error range circles;
Step 4: the tangent line of structure is connected in turn and forms the error range circle, and the zone that this prediction error scope circle is covered deposits a set in, and this set is plotted on a GIS map.
3. the tangential method that utilizes according to claim 2 forecasts the method for path implement prediction error in conjunction with tropical cyclone, it is characterized in that: described error range circle comprises the forecast node error range circle in 24 hours, 48 hours, 72 hours, 96 hours future and 120 hours; Radius corresponding to each circle is respectively: 140 kilometers, 240 kilometers, 360 kilometers, 480 kilometers and 600 kilometers.
Priority Applications (1)
| Application Number | Priority Date | Filing Date | Title |
|---|---|---|---|
| CN 201210155515 CN102681035B (en) | 2012-05-18 | 2012-05-18 | Method for realizing error prediction by combining tangent method and tropical cyclone prediction path |
Applications Claiming Priority (1)
| Application Number | Priority Date | Filing Date | Title |
|---|---|---|---|
| CN 201210155515 CN102681035B (en) | 2012-05-18 | 2012-05-18 | Method for realizing error prediction by combining tangent method and tropical cyclone prediction path |
Publications (2)
| Publication Number | Publication Date |
|---|---|
| CN102681035A CN102681035A (en) | 2012-09-19 |
| CN102681035B true CN102681035B (en) | 2013-12-25 |
Family
ID=46813238
Family Applications (1)
| Application Number | Title | Priority Date | Filing Date |
|---|---|---|---|
| CN 201210155515 Active CN102681035B (en) | 2012-05-18 | 2012-05-18 | Method for realizing error prediction by combining tangent method and tropical cyclone prediction path |
Country Status (1)
| Country | Link |
|---|---|
| CN (1) | CN102681035B (en) |
Families Citing this family (4)
| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CN103955009B (en) * | 2014-04-25 | 2016-03-09 | 宁波市气象台 | A kind of method extracting Objective Typhoon forecast information from numerical forecasting product |
| CN107992607B (en) * | 2017-12-14 | 2020-05-22 | 广州数鹏通科技有限公司 | Typhoon forecast picture drawing method and device, computer equipment and storage medium |
| CN109271474B (en) * | 2018-10-09 | 2019-05-17 | 珠江水利委员会珠江水利科学研究院 | A kind of Forecasting of Tropical Cyclone method based on grid big data statistical method |
| CN110908013A (en) * | 2019-11-27 | 2020-03-24 | 江苏航运职业技术学院 | Tropical cyclone prevention method |
Family Cites Families (3)
| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US7219015B2 (en) * | 2004-02-26 | 2007-05-15 | Swiss Reinsurance Company | Methods for generating data set |
| CN101339240B (en) * | 2008-08-26 | 2011-06-22 | 中国人民解放军海军工程大学 | Wireless sensor network object tracking method based on double layer forecast mechanism |
| CN202196189U (en) * | 2011-08-30 | 2012-04-18 | 长春希迈气象科技股份有限公司 | Comparison device of six-element automatic meteorological station |
-
2012
- 2012-05-18 CN CN 201210155515 patent/CN102681035B/en active Active
Also Published As
| Publication number | Publication date |
|---|---|
| CN102681035A (en) | 2012-09-19 |
Similar Documents
| Publication | Publication Date | Title |
|---|---|---|
| CN102681035B (en) | Method for realizing error prediction by combining tangent method and tropical cyclone prediction path | |
| CN107437122B (en) | Determine that businessman dispenses the method and device of range | |
| CN102997928B (en) | Inter-city road network index and matching method | |
| CN108055301B (en) | Vehicle dispatching method, server, client and system | |
| CN110708659B (en) | Personnel positioning method and system suitable for mine path | |
| CN102903037B (en) | The method of Location of Distribution Centre | |
| CN102903134B (en) | Fast Drawing is the method for curve repeatedly | |
| CN105674995A (en) | Method for acquiring commuting route based on user's travel locus, and apparatus thereof | |
| CN106323313A (en) | A mobile device and method and system for transmission of data thereto | |
| US20140067270A1 (en) | Weather information system | |
| CN102129484A (en) | Method and device for generating digitalized flat cross-section diagram of transmission line | |
| CN102830446B (en) | Intelligent meteorological station system capable of forecasting meteorological data | |
| CN103824510A (en) | Voronoi diagram-based electronic map point element screening method | |
| CN104794755A (en) | Method for constructing high-voltage cable three-dimensional pipeline scene | |
| CN102238687A (en) | Pseudo-three-dimensional wireless sensor network routing method based on geographical position | |
| CN105760392A (en) | Data processing method and device based on electronic map | |
| CN103258348B (en) | A kind of sea island reef dynamic and visual method based on tide process | |
| CN102802229A (en) | Determination method of QOS (quality of service) route longevity path of wireless sensor network in water environment | |
| CN104864864A (en) | Navigation method | |
| CN106127682A (en) | A kind of controlled fractal regressive method taking coastline geographical feature constraint into account and system | |
| CN105352506B (en) | Indoor railway network planning method and device | |
| CN104567853A (en) | Position calibration device and method based on LED visible light source | |
| CN109241212B (en) | Retrieval method for historical rainfall based on mesoscale numerical atmospheric mode and high resolution | |
| CN104680021A (en) | Method and system for solving backward trajectory of pollutant | |
| CN110366104A (en) | Localization method, device, system and electronic equipment and computer readable storage medium |
Legal Events
| Date | Code | Title | Description |
|---|---|---|---|
| C06 | Publication | ||
| PB01 | Publication | ||
| C10 | Entry into substantive examination | ||
| SE01 | Entry into force of request for substantive examination | ||
| C14 | Grant of patent or utility model | ||
| GR01 | Patent grant | ||
| CP03 | Change of name, title or address | ||
| CP03 | Change of name, title or address |
Address after: 350001 unit 6, 4 building, 245 Xiu Shan Road, Xin Dian Town, Jinan District, Fuzhou, Fujian, 608 Patentee after: Four creation technology limited company Address before: 350001 Fuzhou, Fujian, Jinan District, Jinshan District, three Town Road, D, 19 floor, 305 unit Patentee before: Fujian Strong Software Co., Ltd. |