CN102663579A - Origin-destination (OD) estimation method for traffic demand of port roadway based on freight processes - Google Patents
Origin-destination (OD) estimation method for traffic demand of port roadway based on freight processes Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The invention discloses an origin-destination (OD) estimation method for the traffic demand of a port roadway based on freight processes. The method is based on an activity theory, the entire freight logistics procedure is taken as a research unit, the main traffic generation and attraction point of a harbor district is taken as a starting point, and the typical freight logistics procedure of cargo vehicles in the harbor district is taken as an analysis object. Under the precondition of obtaining these basic data which are the basic parameters of the storage yards of the harbor district, the flow rate of each egress and ingress sluice gate in the harbor district and the collecting and distributing proportion of a dock roadway, the cargo quantity of each storage yard and the cargo collecting and distributing quantity of the dock roadway are estimated, the attraction intensity of each sluice gate, each storage yard and each dock in the harbor district is analyzed, the selective probability of different travelling routes of different freight process modes is also calculated, the generation and attraction quantity of each OD pair of the harbor district is estimated so as to obtain an OD matrix for the traffic generation and attraction of a port roadway, finally a macroscopic model of the harbor district is constructed by utilizing a VISUM, the OD of the harbor district is inversed according to the measured flow rate, and the relative error of the OD matrix and the OD is compared so as to verify the reliability of model estimation.
Description
Technical field
The present invention relates to the traffic programme field, be specifically related to a kind of harbour road traffic demand OD method of estimation based on the shipping flow process.
Background technology
Traffic Demand Forecasting is one of core content in the traffic programme, is the basis of traffic and transportation system of making rational planning for.Transport development policy making, transportation network design and evaluate alternatives all have close getting in touch with Traffic Demand Forecasting.1962, the Forecasting Methodology that proposes " generation-distribution-mode is divided-distributed " in the traffic programme research of Chicago,U.S city indicated the formation of " stage " traffic prediction model.
From Traffic Demand Forecasting model development course; Up to the present, the Traffic Demand Forecasting model can be divided into for 3 generations, and first on behalf of the Urban Transportation Planning System model; With the Four-stage Method is representative; Second on behalf of Discrete Choice Model, and the third generation is based on movable travel demand model, and this model I can be divided into again based on the Discrete Choice Model of activity with based on the realistic model of activity.
Present most Traffic Demand Forecasting model all is to general urban transportation; Demand forecast is generally adopted and is simply applied mechanically conventional Four-stage Method like the current port road volume of traffic, but the port road traffic is different from general urban transportation, and harbor district is mainly served the inland transport traffic; Be main mainly with shipping; The shared ratio of lorry is higher, and harbor district freight traffic generation attraction is more fixing on the other hand, and great majority all concentrate on turnover harbor district sluice gate, goods yard and harbour.The harbor district Traffic Demand Forecasting is different from the urban transportation demand forecast, and the harbor district volume of traffic generates influence factor and urban transportation amount generation influence factor has a great difference.The harbor district volume of traffic is that to get in touch vehicle with harbor service be main to produce vehicle, and its specific regularity is arranged.If the harbor district traffic is to be main with encased conveying, the groceries that loose, the harbor district traffic volume forecast just should be with container truck, the groceries fortune of loosing vehicle, roll that vehicle is failed in shipment and the related service vehicle is main.In addition, harbor bound is compared with the urban area, and is less relatively; The pedestrian is less; Vehicle Speed is slower, and pavement of road is arranged and traffic administration also all has very big difference with urban transportation, because simply adopt Four-stage Method prediction port road volume of traffic demand very not suitable.
Summary of the invention
To the deficiency of above-mentioned prior art, the purpose of this invention is to provide a kind ofly according to port road traffic characteristics, with the freight traffic main road traffic demand OD appraisal procedure.
For solving the problems of the technologies described above, the present invention adopts following technical scheme:
A kind of harbour road traffic demand OD method of estimation based on the shipping flow process, it comprises the steps:
1) confirm main OD point in the harbor district, i.e. each sluice gate, stockyard, harbour in the harbor district, the road inland transport ratio of area, the number of plies and area utilization and each harbour in each stockyard of harbor district is obtained in investigation;
2) dredge the volume of goods transported according to area, the number of plies and the area utilization in each stockyard, car loading and each the Wharf Road collection that road inland transport ratio is calculated each stockyard;
3) analyze shipping process mode in the harbor district;
4) according to the car loading in each stockyard, each Wharf Road collection dredge in the volume of goods transported and the harbor district shipping process mode calculate each sluice gate to each stockyard, each stockyard is to each harbour; Each sluice gate arrives the selection probability of each sluice gate to each harbour, each harbour;
5) obtain the entering and leaving port flow of each entering and leaving port sluice gate, the turnover flow that conversion obtains each stockyard and harbour according to actual measurement; And, obtain harbor district and estimate the OD matrix according to the traffic generation traffic attraction between corresponding all sluice gates of selection probability calculation harbor district, stockyard and each OD of harbour;
6) adopt VI SUM macromodel to carry out that OD is counter to be pushed away; Obtain harbor district and calculate the OD matrix; Relatively calculate the OD matrix and estimate that the OD matrix whether in error range, is final OD matrix as in error range, then estimating the OD matrix, as not within error range; Then the area utilization in each stockyard and the road inland transport ratio of each harbour are adjusted in planning again, and return step 2).
Preferably, in the harbor district in the step 3) shipping process mode comprise sluice gate-stockyard-harbour, sluice gate-sign indicating number first two.
Technique scheme has following beneficial effect: each link that should take into full account the harbor district shipping based on the harbour road traffic demand OD method of estimation of shipping flow process; Analyzed the sucting strength of main traffic generation attraction; Make up harbour road traffic demand estimation model on this basis; Proposition is based on the harbour road traffic demand OD method of estimation of shipping flow process; Have calculate simple, to the outstanding freight traffic of harbor district and consider that the detailed process in the freight transportation process carries out advantages such as Traffic Distribution.
Above-mentioned explanation only is the general introduction of technical scheme of the present invention, understands technological means of the present invention in order can more to know, and can implement according to the content of instructions, below with preferred embodiment of the present invention and conjunction with figs. this patent is elaborated.
Description of drawings
Fig. 1 is the process flow diagram of the embodiment of the invention.
Fig. 2 is embodiment of the invention sluice gate-stockyard-Freight Dock process mode synoptic diagram.
Fig. 3 is embodiment of the invention sluice gate-Freight Dock process mode synoptic diagram.
Fig. 4 is that embodiment of the invention sluice gate-stockyard-harbour is selected the limb synoptic diagram.
Fig. 5 is that embodiment of the invention sluice gate-harbour is selected the limb synoptic diagram.
Embodiment
Below in conjunction with accompanying drawing the preferred embodiments of the present invention are described in detail.
The present invention is directed to the harbour road traffic is main prominent feature with the freight traffic; Particularly to the typical shipping flow process of harbor district; A kind of method of estimation of the harbour road traffic demand based on the shipping flow process is proposed; Take into full account each link of harbor district shipping, analyze the sucting strength of main traffic generation attraction, make up harbour road traffic demand estimation model on this basis.
The present invention has following characteristics:
(1) based on activity theory, serve as the research unit with whole shipping flow process, be starting point with the main traffic generation of harbor district attraction, be analytic target with the typical shipping flow process of goods vehicle in the harbor district;
(2) because the inland transport traffic is mainly served at the harbour; Its traffic origination point and attraction are more fixing; Main traffic origination point of harbor district and attraction concentrate on entering and leaving port sluice gate, stockyard and harbour, therefore carry out harbour road traffic demand with sluice gate, stockyard, harbour as traffic zone and estimate;
(3) in long-time scope (such as 1 year); For road transport; The total car loading of road transport of all harbours is maintenance balances in the goods total amount of harbor district turnover sluice gate and the port, then should equal total car loading of harbour from sluice gate-stockyard-harbour and the goods total amount under first two pattern of sluice gate-sign indicating number;
(4) factor that influences harbour stacks of cargo field energy holding freight amount comprises storage space, stores up the number of plies, area utilization, estimates the goods total amount in each stockyard, harbour with these 3 influence factors;
(5) the road inland transport occupies an important position in the comprehensive inland transport in harbour system.And at different harbor districts, in the transporting something containerized of different goods and the transport process, roadnet plays different effects.For the turnover hour road Traffic Volume of port and pier, calculate each Wharf Road freight total amount according to the ratio that the road inland transport is shared;
(6) with the cargo handling capacity be the factor that influences effectiveness, analyze of the route selection of the sucting strength of each sluice gate, stockyard and harbour in the harbor district, estimate travel amount and traffic attraction that each OD of harbor district is right on this basis each trip.
In order to reach above purpose,, at first want clear and definite following key concept to the harbour road traffic demand estimation model that the present invention proposes based on the shipping flow process:
1) logistics
A logistics is meant that goods stock directly approaches through sluice gate and transports goods to harbour after foreign goods seedbed, port vanning, midway without any need for transfer or stop.
2) freight transfer station
Freight transfer station be meant when the ship that conveys goods also not when harbour or harbour do not have the berth of stop, goods can not directly advance harbour but need transport goods yard to wait for, be the equal of freight transfer station in the Goods in Port Area stockyard.
3) second logistic
Second logistic is meant that freight transportation need pass through the process that just can transport harbour after the freight transfer station to.
4) goods is assembled
Goods is assembled the connotation that comprises two aspects:
(1) assembly of approaching: goods approaches and is transported to freight station or harbour in the foreign goods seedbed from the port,
Form the process that lot cargo is stacked at freight station and harbour place.
(2) assembly of leaving the port: goods forms at harbour after external or nonlocal ship are transported to harbour
The process that lot cargo leaves the port and waits for.
5) goods is evacuated
Goods is evacuated to assemble with goods and is comparatively speaking, and when lot cargo is waited for when transporting the entering and leaving port, vehicle arrives the process that harbour or terminal are evacuated goods successively.
6) typical shipping process mode
(1) sluice gate-stockyard-harbour: stacks of cargo is placed on the stockyard; Before the ship landing pier, the lorry empty wagons arrives through sluice gate and leaves for the harbour shipment of unloading after the vanning of stockyard, afterwards again along harbour-stockyard-and sluice gate returns; Belong to the second logistic process, detailed process is seen accompanying drawing 2;
(2) sluice gate-harbour: vehicle directly is transported to harbour from sluice gate with goods after goods is loaded onto in foreign goods seedbed, port, unsnatches goods and leaves the port through sluice gate from harbour more afterwards, belongs to logistics progress one time,
Detailed process is seen accompanying drawing 3.
The harbour road traffic demand method of estimation that the present invention proposes based on the shipping flow process; Its basic ideas are following: based on activity theory; With whole freight logistics process is the research unit; With the main traffic generation of harbor district attraction is starting point, is analytic target with the typical freight logistics process of goods vehicle in the harbor district, in obtaining harbor district stockyard basic parameter (comprising storage space, the stockyard number of plies and storage space utilization factor), harbor district under the prerequisite of each come in and go out sluice gate flow, these master datas of Wharf Road inland transport ratio; Estimate each stockyard car loading and Wharf Road inland transport car loading; With the goods traffic attraction is the factor that influences effectiveness, and the sucting strength of analyzing each sluice gate, stockyard and harbour in the harbor district is estimated travel amount and traffic attraction that each OD of harbor district is right on this basis to each trip route selection; Obtain the OD matrix that attraction takes place the harbour road traffic; Utilize VISUM to set up the harbor district macromodel at last, according to the anti-harbor district OD that pushes away of measured discharge, the reliability that adopts both relative error to come verification model to estimate.Its basic procedure is shown in accompanying drawing 1:
At first confirm main OD point in the harbor district, i.e. each sluice gate, stockyard, harbour in the harbor district, the road inland transport ratio of area, the number of plies and area utilization and each harbour in each stockyard is obtained in investigation; Dredge the volume of goods transported according to area, the number of plies and the area utilization in each stockyard, car loading and each the Wharf Road collection that road inland transport ratio is calculated each stockyard then.
Suppose that investigation obtains harbor district m sluice gate arranged, n stockyard, l harbour, need obtain following data:
(1) each sluice gate flow O that approaches
EiWith the flow O that leaves the port
Oi
(2) turnover goods total amount H in each stockyard
Dj
(3) each harbour goods total amount H
Ek, H
Ok
I=1 wherein, 2,3 ..., m, j=1,2,3 ..., n, k=1,2,3 ..., l, e represent that into, o expresses, d representes the stockyard.
Influence Container Yard can holding freight the factor of amount comprise storage space, store up the number of plies, area utilization.The concrete computing formula of Container Yard car loading is:
H
d＝s·ρ·β/s
0
(1)
In the formula: H
dBut---stockyard holding freight amount (TEU);
ρ---container is stored up the average number of plies;
β---case position utilization factor, interval 0.7-0.8.
S---storage space, square metre;
s
0---single standard truck accounts for storage space, and value is 15 square metres.
Investigation obtains the situation in each stockyard of harbor district, calculates each stockyard stack goods total amount by following formula after understanding storage space and storing up the number of plies.
Sluice gate entering and leaving port flow O
EiAnd O
OiAll be a hour flow (TEU (Twenty-foot Equivalent Unit)/hour, i.e. TEU/h), and stockyard and harbour year goods total amount H
d, H
Ek, H
OkBe ton/year, at first will the goods total amount in stockyard and the harbour be converted into TEU/h.The maximum cargo total amount that 1 TEU (Twenty-foot Equivalent Unit) (40 feet casees) can transport is 30.48 tons, establishes the harbor district peak hour flow than being k
1, then each stockyard turnover hourly traffic volume is calculated as follows.
The road inland transport occupies an important position in the comprehensive inland transport in PORT OF TIANJIN system.And at different harbor districts, in the transporting something containerized of different goods and the transport process, roadnet plays different effects.For the turnover hourly traffic volume of harbour, at first calculate the goods total amount of road transport according to the shared ratio of road inland transport.
H
tek＝H
ek·k
2
H
tok＝H
ok·k
3
In the formula: k
2Be road transport collection port ratio, k
3Be the road transport ratio of clearing out a harbour.
Each harbour turnover hourly traffic volume is calculated as follows.
Analyze shipping process mode in the harbor district then; In long-time scope (such as 1 year); For road transport; The total car loading of road transport of all harbours is maintenance balances in the goods total amount of harbor district turnover sluice gate and the port, then should equal total car loading of harbour from sluice gate-stockyard-harbour (pattern one) and the goods total amount under two kinds of patterns of sluice gate-harbour (pattern two).Based on this level theory, at first calculate the selection probability of two kinds of mode of freight transportations.
Freight transportation selects the probability of mode of freight transportation one to be:
The selection probability of mode of freight transportation two is: P
1=1-P
Between each traffic origination point and attraction, the year car loading of each stockyard and harbour accounts for the sucting strength of the ratio of all stockyards and the total car loading of harbour for this stockyard and harbour.
● mode of freight transportation one
If select shipping process mode one during the vehicle transport goods, then at each sluice gate place, going to the stockyard has n to select limb, after the loading of entering stockyard finishes, goes to harbour to have l to select limb, shown in accompanying drawing 4:
(1) vehicle approaches from the i sluice gate, and then the probability in its selection j stockyard is
(2) probability of j entering k harbour is
from the stockyard
(3) from the k harbour return stockyard j probability is
(4) j is
to the probability of i sluice gate from the stockyard
● mode of freight transportation two
If vehicle is selected shipping process mode two, vehicle directly goes to harbour through behind the sluice gate, and the turnover harbor district has the m kind to select, and has the l kind to select through going to harbour behind the sluice gate, shown in accompanying drawing 5:
(1) vehicle approaches from the i sluice gate, and the probability that goes to the k harbour is
(2) turn back to the probability of i sluice gate from harbour k:
Sluice gate turnover flow O
Ei, O
Oi, stockyard turnover flow E
Ej, E
Oj, harbour turnover flow D
Ej, D
Oj
Each sluice gate that last basis calculates arrives each stockyard, each stockyard to each harbour; Each sluice gate arrives the selection probability of each sluice gate to each harbour, each harbour; And actual measurement obtain each entering and leaving port sluice gate the entering and leaving port flow, each stockyard obtain and the turnover flow of harbour convert; Calculate traffic generating capacity and traffic attraction between all sluice gates of harbor district, stockyard and each OD of harbour; Obtain the harbour estimated matrix, calculate to gather and see table.
Table 1 OD calculates summary sheet
Adopt the VISUM macromodel to carry out that OD is counter to be pushed away at last; Obtain harbor district and calculate the OD matrix; Relatively calculate the OD matrix and estimate that the OD matrix whether in error range, is final OD matrix as in error range, then estimating the OD matrix, as not within error range; Then reset the road inland transport ratio of area utilization and each harbour in each stockyard; And the repetition above-mentioned steps, the area utilization of the area in each stockyard of planning adjustment and the number of plies and setting, the road inland transport ratio car loading and each the Wharf Road collection that calculate each stockyard dredged the volume of goods transported again, until calculating that OD matrix and the error range of estimating the OD matrix are within specialized range.
Should take into full account each link of harbor district shipping based on the harbour road traffic demand OD method of estimation of shipping flow process; Analyzed the sucting strength of main traffic generation attraction; Make up harbour road traffic demand estimation model on this basis; Proposition is based on the port road functional classification method of shipping flow process, have calculate simple, to the outstanding freight traffic of harbor district and consider that the detailed process in the freight transportation process carries out advantages such as Traffic Distribution.
With a specific embodiment, the present invention is further specified below:
The harbour road traffic demand method of estimation of present embodiment is used for certain harbor district road network, and this harbor district road network has 6 main turnover sluice gates, 15 goods yards, 13 harbours and company.This storage yard area utilization is 0.78, and it is 3 layers that the stockyard goods is stacked the number of plies.This harbour is divided into North SinKiang and South Sinkiang two parts, and the North SinKiang harbor district is mainly container set transport traffic, and the South Sinkiang harbor district mainly is the traffic of bulk goods inland transport.
Table 2 North SinKiang and South Sinkiang peak hour factor and highway inland transport ratio
Table 3 harbor district mainly passes in and out the sluice gate flowmeter
The main goods yard of table 4 harbor district
| Numbering | The stockyard title | Area (sq-km) | The container number | Goods total amount (ton/year) | TEU/h |
| 1 | China South Korean products field | 0.674 | 202200 | 3081528 | 100 |
| 2 | Accumulating incorporated company | 0.508 | 143933 | 2193544 | 71 |
| 3 | The prompt stockyard of thing | 0.45 | 127500 | 1943100 | 63 |
| 4 | Container Yard | 0.613 | 183900 | 2802636 | 91 |
| 5 | The gloomy Container Yard in sea | 1.148 | 325267 | 4957064 | 160 |
| 6 | Magnificent stockyard shakes | 0.304 | 96267 | 1467104 | 47 |
| 7 | Strong stockyard, port | 0.447 | 126650 | 1930146 | 62 |
| 8 | Stockyard 1 | 0.672 | 201600 | 3072384 | 99 |
| 9 | Stockyard 2 | 0.601 | 170283 | 2595118 | 84 |
| 10 | The container cargo distribution center | 0.586 | 166033 | 2530348 | 82 |
| 11 | |
0.48 | 136000 | 2072640 | 67 |
| 12 | Stockyard 4 | 0.591 | 187150 | 2852166 | 92 |
| 13 | Stockyard 5 | 0.695 | 196917 | 3001010 | 97 |
| 14 | Stockyard 6 | 0.551 | 156117 | 2379218 | 77 |
| 15 | Stockyard 7 | 0.455 | 128917 | 1964690 | 64 |
The main harbour of table 5 harbor district
Calculate the traffic generation traffic attraction that each main OD is ordered according to the model formation in the table 1, finally obtain showing the OD matrix of 5-1 to 5-6.
Table 5-1 sluice gate-stockyard
Table 5-2 stockyard-harbour
Table 5-3 harbour-stockyard
Table 5-4 stockyard-sluice gate
Table 5-5 sluice gate-harbour
Table 5-6 harbour-sluice gate
More than a kind of harbour road traffic demand OD method of estimation based on the shipping flow process that the embodiment of the invention provided has been carried out detailed introduction; For one of ordinary skill in the art; According to the thought of the embodiment of the invention, the part that on embodiment and range of application, all can change, in sum; This description should not be construed as limitation of the present invention, and all any changes of making according to design philosophy of the present invention are all within protection scope of the present invention.
Claims (2)
1. the harbour road traffic demand OD method of estimation based on the shipping flow process is characterized in that it comprises the steps:
1) confirm main OD point in the harbor district, i.e. each sluice gate, stockyard, harbour in the harbor district, the road inland transport ratio of area, the number of plies and area utilization and each harbour in each stockyard of harbor district is obtained in investigation;
2) dredge the volume of goods transported according to area, the number of plies and the area utilization in each stockyard, car loading and each the Wharf Road collection that road inland transport ratio is calculated each stockyard;
3) analyze shipping process mode in the harbor district;
4) according to the car loading in each stockyard, each Wharf Road collection dredge in the volume of goods transported and the harbor district shipping process mode calculate each sluice gate to each stockyard, each stockyard is to each harbour; Each sluice gate arrives the selection probability of each sluice gate to each harbour, each harbour;
5) obtain the entering and leaving port flow of each entering and leaving port sluice gate, the turnover flow that conversion obtains each stockyard and harbour according to actual measurement; And, obtain harbor district and estimate the OD matrix according to the traffic generation traffic attraction between corresponding all sluice gates of selection probability calculation harbor district, stockyard and each OD of harbour;
6) adopt VI SUM macromodel to carry out that OD is counter to be pushed away; Obtain harbor district and calculate the OD matrix; Relatively calculate the OD matrix and estimate that the OD matrix whether in error range, is final OD matrix as in error range, then estimating the OD matrix, as not within error range; Then the area utilization in each stockyard and the road inland transport ratio of each harbour are adjusted in planning again, and return step 2).
2. the harbour road traffic demand OD method of estimation based on the shipping flow process according to claim 1 is characterized in that: in the harbor district in the step 3) shipping process mode comprise sluice gate-stockyard-harbour, sluice gate-sign indicating number first two.
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