CN102289734A - Dynamic risk evaluation and management method for foundation pit engineering - Google Patents
Dynamic risk evaluation and management method for foundation pit engineering Download PDFInfo
- Publication number
- CN102289734A CN102289734A CN2011102046237A CN201110204623A CN102289734A CN 102289734 A CN102289734 A CN 102289734A CN 2011102046237 A CN2011102046237 A CN 2011102046237A CN 201110204623 A CN201110204623 A CN 201110204623A CN 102289734 A CN102289734 A CN 102289734A
- Authority
- CN
- China
- Prior art keywords
- risk
- pit engineering
- base pit
- level
- grades
- Prior art date
- Legal status (The legal status is an assumption and is not a legal conclusion. Google has not performed a legal analysis and makes no representation as to the accuracy of the status listed.)
- Pending
Links
Images
Landscapes
- Management, Administration, Business Operations System, And Electronic Commerce (AREA)
Abstract
The invention relates to a dynamic risk evaluation and management method for foundation pit engineering. The method comprises the following steps of: (1) recognizing foundation pit engineering risk factors with a Delphi method and classifying; (2) measuring and estimating a risk according to the level standards of three indexes, including a foundation pit engineering risk occurrence probability, risk loss and risk controllability; (3) evaluating a foundation pit engineering risk with an improved analytic hierarchy process based on a triangular fuzzy number and a fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method; (4) putting forward a risk response decision according to a risk evaluation result; and (5) tracking and monitoring the foundation pit engineering risk, returning to the step (1) for performing risk recognition, risk estimation, risk evaluation, risk decision and risk tracking once again if a new risk source is found, and ending the risk managing process if no new risk source is found. By adopting the method, the defect that the change of the risk factors along with the development of engineering construction is not considered during static risk evaluation is overcome, the risk evaluation indexes and a grading standard are more systematic and complete, and a risk evaluation model is more accurate and reasonable.
Description
Technical field
The present invention relates to a kind of civil construction project risk assessment and management method, relate in particular to a kind of base pit engineering dynamic risk assessment and management method.
Background technology
Along with large-scale developing and utilizing of China's urban underground space, base pit engineering is increasing, and Foundation Pit Construction conditions and environment condition is complicated day by day, and its engineering construction risk is also increasing.The base pit engineering accident frequently takes place, and according to relevant document statistics, the regional base pit engineering success ratio that has has only 1/3, and all more or less there is such or such problem in all the other foundation ditches of 2/3.In a single day deep-foundation pit engineering risk accidents occurs in process of construction, not only incur loss through delay the duration, cause enormous economic loss, and can produce bad social influence.As seen, deep-foundation pit engineering is an excessive risk construction project.So, how the risk of base pit engineering construction is assessed? how the base pit engineering risks of construction are managed and control? to reduce the loss of risk probability of happening and risk, become a problem that presses for solution.
Deep-foundation pit engineering has characteristics such as regionality, comprehensive, uncertainty and environmental effect, carrying out along with the base pit engineering construction, because the variation of geologic condition, environmental baseline and execution conditions, the various factors that influences the base pit engineering risk will change thereupon, risk factors in the deep-foundation pit engineering may increase or reduce, some risk can be well controlled after having taked effective measures, and bigger variation has taken place for the size of some risk or character.The variation of these risk factors will inevitably have influence on the risk status of whole engineering.Therefore, adopt existing " static risk assessment and management method ", be difficult to follow the tracks of the risk that changes constantly in the construction, and be difficult to accurately assess the risk of deep-foundation pit engineering.
In addition, in existing risk assessment was analyzed, risk assessment had considered that mainly risk probability of happening and risk lose this two factors.Yet, in the actual engineering, except these two factors of evaluation, also have a lot of other factors (as: transferability of the predictability of risk, the controllability of risk, risk loss etc.) also can influence even determine the degree of risk of engineering, it is not comprehensive, inaccurate only weighing risk with these two indexs.On the other hand, in the risk assessment weight calculation, adopt analytical hierarchy process analysis commonly used can not fully reflect various ambiguities and the uncertainty that exists in the risk score.
Therefore, be necessary in the deep-foundation pit engineering construction, to set up a kind of suitable dynamic risk assessment and management method,, effectively reduce the generation of risk accidents in the deep-foundation pit engineering construction, guarantee engineering construction safety so that accurately assess risk in the deep-foundation pit engineering construction.
Summary of the invention
The objective of the invention is to overcome the deficiency that prior art exists, a kind of dynamic risk of deep-foundation pit engineering accurately and reliably assessment and management method are provided.
In order to realize the foregoing invention purpose, can be achieved through the following technical solutions:
A kind of base pit engineering dynamic risk assessment and management method may further comprise the steps:
1) adopts Delphi method identification base pit engineering risk factors, and risk factors are classified by prospective design, construction, management, monitoring and environment five aspects;
2) grade of risk probability of happening, risk loss and three indexs of risk controllability of each risk factors of base pit engineering is estimated in measurement;
3) employing is based on the improvement stratification calculation risk factor weight vector of Triangular Fuzzy Number; Adopt fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method simultaneously, and, estimate the base pit engineering risk according to the classification standard of base pit engineering risk assessment;
4), the base pit engineering decision in the face of risk is proposed according to the risk assessment result;
5) the base pit engineering risk after the proposition decision-making is carried out tracing and monitoring, if any new risk source, returns step 1), repeating step 1)-step 5), carry out risk identification, evaluation of risk, risk assessment, decision in the face of risk and risk again and follow the tracks of; As do not have new risk source, risk management processes finishes.
Among the present invention, described step 2) the risk probability of happening P classification standard in is divided into, when P＜0.01% be 1 grade impossible, when 0.01%≤P＜0.1% be 2 grades rare, when 0.1%≤P＜1% being 3 grades takes place once in a while, being 4 grades when 1%≤P＜10% may take place, and is 5 grades of frequent generations when P 〉=10%;
Risk loss grade EL standard is divided into: when EL＜5,000,000 yuan is that the A level is slightly damaged, insignificant, big for the loss of B level when 5,000,000 yuan≤EL＜1,000 ten thousand yuan, need to consider, serious for the loss of C level when 1,000 ten thousand yuan≤EL＜5,000 ten thousand yuan, very serious for the loss of D level when 5,000 ten thousand yuan≤EL＜10,000 ten thousand yuan, when EL 〉=10,000 ten thousand yuan for the E level is suffered heavy losses, catastrophic five grades;
Risk controllability classification standard is divided into 5 grades, is respectively: the I level is very easily controlled, and the II level is more easy to control, and the III level can be controlled, and difficult control of IV level and V level are difficult to control.
Among the present invention, the classification standard of the base pit engineering risk assessment in the described step 3) is the three-dimensional risk assessment matrix of setting up according to base pit engineering risk probability of happening, risk loss and three indexs of risk controllability.
Among the present invention, the grade scale of the base pit engineering decision in the face of risk in the described step 4) is divided into: one-level safe condition, secondary are paid close attention to state, three grades of alert status, level Four alarm condition and five grades of Pyatyi precarious position, and adopt green, blue, yellow, orange and red five kinds of colors are represented the grade of each risk factors and the safe condition of whole deep-foundation pit engineering intuitively.
Compared with prior art, the present invention has the following advantages:
(1) the present invention considered base pit engineering build in the dynamic and the cyclicity of risk, can tackle effectively base pit engineering build in risk factors complicated and changeable, improve engineering risk assessment accuracy and reliability.
(2) the present invention has adopted risk probability, risk loss and three indexs of risk controllability to weigh the base pit engineering risk, sets up base pit engineering risk assessment classification standard, and the index system of estimated risk and classification standard ratio more comprehensively, rationally and accurately in the past.
(3) the present invention has adopted the improving layer fractional analysis based on Triangular Fuzzy Number, various ambiguities and the uncertainty of having avoided the common layer fractional analysis to exist in risk score in base pit engineering risk assessment weight calculation.
Description of drawings
Fig. 1 is the assessment of base pit engineering dynamic risk and management process synoptic diagram of the embodiment of the invention;
Fig. 2 is the Shanghai Underground base pit engineering risk assessment index system figure of the embodiment of the invention.
Embodiment
The present invention is described in detail below in conjunction with the drawings and specific embodiments.
Embodiment 1:
As shown in Figure 1, a kind of base pit engineering dynamic risk assessment and management method may further comprise the steps:
1) adopts Delphi method identification base pit engineering risk factors, and risk factors are classified by prospective design, construction, management, monitoring and environment five aspects;
2) grade of risk probability of happening, risk loss and three indexs of risk controllability of each risk factors of base pit engineering is estimated in measurement;
3) employing is based on the improvement stratification calculation risk factor weight vector of Triangular Fuzzy Number; Adopt fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method simultaneously, and, estimate the base pit engineering risk according to the classification standard of base pit engineering risk assessment;
4), the base pit engineering decision in the face of risk is proposed according to the risk assessment result;
5) the base pit engineering risk after the proposition decision-making is carried out tracing and monitoring,, return step 1), carry out risk identification, evaluation of risk, risk assessment, decision in the face of risk and risk again and follow the tracks of if any new risk source; As do not have new risk source, risk management processes finishes.
The present invention implements in the Shanghai Underground base pit engineering, this base pit engineering is positioned at urban center, the surrounding buildings thing is intensive, and the station periphery has the garden villa that is built in the twenties in 20th century, also has buildingss such as Shanghai research institute, high-rise office building and commercial street, Huai-Hai road.The long 155.2m of station structure, the standard paragraphs excavation of foundation pit degree of depth is 24.1m, end well segment base hole cutting depth is about 26.0m, is one of bigger station of Shanghai cutting depth of the same type.Actual conditions in conjunction with this base pit engineering, adopt the present invention that this base pit engineering has been carried out dynamic risk assessment and management, at first adopt Delphi method that the risk factors in this base pit engineering process of construction are discerned, and according to prospective design, construction, management, monitoring and environment five aspects risk factors are classified, as shown in Figure 2; The expert gives a mark according to the classification standard table 1～3 pair base pit engineering risk factors of base pit engineering risk probability of happening, risk loss and risk controllability then, and table 4 is a construction risk factor grade form; Adopt the improving layer fractional analysis calculation risk factor weight vector of Triangular Fuzzy Number again, adopt fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method, and according to the classification standard (as shown in table 5) of base pit engineering risk assessment, this deep-foundation pit engineering has been carried out risk assessment, table 6 is the degree of membership matrix of base pit engineering risk factors, and table 7 is the risk evaluation result of base pit engineering embodiment; At last, according to assessment result and decision in the face of risk grade scale table 8, propose some and reduced the countermeasure and the control measure of base pit engineering risk, by dynamic risk management carry out risk identification again, reevaluate and decision-making again, table 9 is for taking the degree of membership matrix of base pit engineering risk factors after the decision-making measure, and table 10 is for taking the dynamic risk assessment result of base pit engineering embodiment after the decision-making measure.
Use the inventive method, can tackle effectively base pit engineering build in risk factors complicated and changeable, realize dynamic, the processor-oriented risk management of base pit engineering, improve the accuracy and the reliability of base pit engineering risk assessment, reduce the generation of deep-foundation pit engineering accident, guarantee engineering construction safety.
Table 1 base pit engineering risk probability classification standard
Table 2 base pit engineering risk loss classification standard
| Grade | A | B | C | D | E |
| Causality loss is described | Insignificant | Need consider | Serious | Very serious | Catastrophic |
Table 3 base pit engineering risk controllability classification standard
| Grade | Ⅰ | Ⅱ | Ⅲ | Ⅳ | Ⅴ |
| Controllability is described | Very easily control | More easy to control | Can control | Difficult control | Be difficult to control |
Table 4 construction risk factor grade form
The classification standard of table 5 base pit engineering risk assessment (three-dimensional risk assessment matrix)
The degree of membership matrix of table 6 base pit engineering risk factors
Table 7 base pit engineering risk assessment result
The grade scale of table 8 base pit engineering decision in the face of risk
The degree of membership matrix of table 9 base pit engineering dynamic risk factor
Table 10 base pit engineering dynamic risk evaluation result
Claims (4)
1. a base pit engineering dynamic risk is assessed and management method, it is characterized in that, may further comprise the steps:
1) adopts Delphi method identification base pit engineering risk factors, and risk factors are classified by prospective design, construction, management, monitoring and environment five aspects;
2) grade of risk probability of happening, risk loss and three indexs of risk controllability of base pit engineering risk factors is estimated in measurement;
3) employing is based on the improvement stratification calculation risk factor weight vector of Triangular Fuzzy Number; Adopt fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method simultaneously, and, estimate the base pit engineering risk according to the classification standard of base pit engineering risk assessment;
4), the base pit engineering decision in the face of risk is proposed according to the risk assessment result;
5) the base pit engineering risk after the proposition decision-making is carried out tracing and monitoring, if any new risk source, returns step 1), repeating step 1)-step 5), carry out risk identification, evaluation of risk, risk assessment, decision in the face of risk and risk again and follow the tracks of; As do not have new risk source, risk management processes finishes.
2. a kind of base pit engineering dynamic risk assessment according to claim 1 and management method, it is characterized in that, described step 2) the risk probability of happening P classification standard in is divided into, when P＜0.01% be 1 grade impossible, when 0.01%≤P＜0.1% be 2 grades rare, being 3 grades and taking place once in a while that being 4 grades when 1%≤P＜10% may take place when 0.1%≤P＜1%, is 5 grades of frequent generations when P 〉=10%;
Risk loss grade EL standard is divided into: when EL＜5,000,000 yuan is that the A level is slightly damaged, insignificant, big for the loss of B level when 5,000,000 yuan≤EL＜1,000 ten thousand yuan, need to consider, serious for the loss of C level when 1,000 ten thousand yuan≤EL＜5,000 ten thousand yuan, very serious for the loss of D level when 5,000 ten thousand yuan≤EL＜10,000 ten thousand yuan, when EL 〉=10,000 ten thousand yuan for the E level is suffered heavy losses, catastrophic five grades;
Risk controllability classification standard is divided into 5 grades, is respectively: the I level is very easily controlled, and the II level is more easy to control, and the III level can be controlled, and difficult control of IV level and V level are difficult to control.
3. a kind of base pit engineering dynamic risk assessment according to claim 1 and management method, it is characterized in that the classification standard of the base pit engineering risk assessment in the described step 3) is the three-dimensional risk assessment matrix of setting up according to base pit engineering risk probability of happening, risk loss and three indexs of risk controllability.
4. a kind of base pit engineering dynamic risk assessment according to claim 1 and management method, it is characterized in that, the grade scale of the base pit engineering decision in the face of risk in the described step 4) is divided into: one-level safe condition, secondary are paid close attention to state, three grades of alert status, level Four alarm condition and five grades of Pyatyi precarious position, and adopt green, blue, yellow, orange and red five kinds of colors are represented the grade of each risk factors and the safe condition of whole deep-foundation pit engineering intuitively.
Priority Applications (1)
| Application Number | Priority Date | Filing Date | Title |
|---|---|---|---|
| CN2011102046237A CN102289734A (en) | 2011-07-21 | 2011-07-21 | Dynamic risk evaluation and management method for foundation pit engineering |
Applications Claiming Priority (1)
| Application Number | Priority Date | Filing Date | Title |
|---|---|---|---|
| CN2011102046237A CN102289734A (en) | 2011-07-21 | 2011-07-21 | Dynamic risk evaluation and management method for foundation pit engineering |
Publications (1)
| Publication Number | Publication Date |
|---|---|
| CN102289734A true CN102289734A (en) | 2011-12-21 |
Family
ID=45336136
Family Applications (1)
| Application Number | Title | Priority Date | Filing Date |
|---|---|---|---|
| CN2011102046237A Pending CN102289734A (en) | 2011-07-21 | 2011-07-21 | Dynamic risk evaluation and management method for foundation pit engineering |
Country Status (1)
| Country | Link |
|---|---|
| CN (1) | CN102289734A (en) |
Cited By (12)
| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CN102521710A (en) * | 2011-12-22 | 2012-06-27 | 上海建科工程咨询有限公司 | Building construction quality safety online risk assessment system |
| CN102682213A (en) * | 2012-05-11 | 2012-09-19 | 广州市地下铁道总公司 | Quality assessment method of rail transit equipment |
| CN103488897A (en) * | 2013-09-24 | 2014-01-01 | 柳州市博源环科科技有限公司 | Evaluation method of risk levels of dangerous substances of mining industry |
| CN103984995A (en) * | 2014-05-20 | 2014-08-13 | 上海建科工程咨询有限公司 | Judgment method of deep foundation pit engineering risk early-warning index based on benefit-danger balance point |
| CN105095679A (en) * | 2015-09-10 | 2015-11-25 | 北京安捷工程咨询有限公司 | Security risk early warning measurement and judgment method of foundation pit tunnel engineering |
| CN107273579A (en) * | 2017-05-20 | 2017-10-20 | 汕头市建设工程质量监督检测站 | A kind of integrated evaluating method of inner support building foundation pit security |
| CN107818665A (en) * | 2017-07-06 | 2018-03-20 | 浙江海洋大学 | A kind of construction method of safety pre-warning system |
| CN109034286A (en) * | 2018-05-22 | 2018-12-18 | 广东工业大学 | Based on BIM and RFID construction risk source identification and management method |
| CN110910031A (en) * | 2019-11-29 | 2020-03-24 | 江苏建筑职业技术学院 | Online risk assessment system of building construction quality safety |
| CN111612356A (en) * | 2020-05-21 | 2020-09-01 | 盛安保险技术股份有限公司 | Engineering quality insurance risk management effect and scheme analysis method and system |
| CN113537684A (en) * | 2020-04-22 | 2021-10-22 | 中国石油化工股份有限公司 | Overseas refining engineering risk management control method under multi-target coupling constraint |
| CN114654090A (en) * | 2022-04-20 | 2022-06-24 | 广州明珞装备股份有限公司 | Laser welding tracing method, system, device, workstation and production line |
-
2011
- 2011-07-21 CN CN2011102046237A patent/CN102289734A/en active Pending
Cited By (18)
| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CN102521710B (en) * | 2011-12-22 | 2016-07-06 | 上海建科工程咨询有限公司 | A kind of online risk evaluating system of Construction Quality safety |
| CN102521710A (en) * | 2011-12-22 | 2012-06-27 | 上海建科工程咨询有限公司 | Building construction quality safety online risk assessment system |
| CN102682213A (en) * | 2012-05-11 | 2012-09-19 | 广州市地下铁道总公司 | Quality assessment method of rail transit equipment |
| CN103488897A (en) * | 2013-09-24 | 2014-01-01 | 柳州市博源环科科技有限公司 | Evaluation method of risk levels of dangerous substances of mining industry |
| CN103488897B (en) * | 2013-09-24 | 2017-06-06 | 河南城建学院 | A kind of evaluation method of mining industry dangerous substance risk level |
| CN103984995A (en) * | 2014-05-20 | 2014-08-13 | 上海建科工程咨询有限公司 | Judgment method of deep foundation pit engineering risk early-warning index based on benefit-danger balance point |
| CN105095679A (en) * | 2015-09-10 | 2015-11-25 | 北京安捷工程咨询有限公司 | Security risk early warning measurement and judgment method of foundation pit tunnel engineering |
| CN105095679B (en) * | 2015-09-10 | 2018-07-13 | 北京安捷工程咨询有限公司 | Method is sentenced in a kind of foundation pit Tunnel Engineering security risk early warning survey |
| CN107273579B (en) * | 2017-05-20 | 2022-01-25 | 汕头市建设工程质量监督检测站 | Comprehensive evaluation method for safety of inner support building foundation pit |
| CN107273579A (en) * | 2017-05-20 | 2017-10-20 | 汕头市建设工程质量监督检测站 | A kind of integrated evaluating method of inner support building foundation pit security |
| CN107818665A (en) * | 2017-07-06 | 2018-03-20 | 浙江海洋大学 | A kind of construction method of safety pre-warning system |
| CN109034286A (en) * | 2018-05-22 | 2018-12-18 | 广东工业大学 | Based on BIM and RFID construction risk source identification and management method |
| CN110910031A (en) * | 2019-11-29 | 2020-03-24 | 江苏建筑职业技术学院 | Online risk assessment system of building construction quality safety |
| CN113537684A (en) * | 2020-04-22 | 2021-10-22 | 中国石油化工股份有限公司 | Overseas refining engineering risk management control method under multi-target coupling constraint |
| CN113537684B (en) * | 2020-04-22 | 2024-03-29 | 中国石油化工股份有限公司 | Overseas refining chemical engineering risk management control method under multi-target coupling constraint |
| CN111612356A (en) * | 2020-05-21 | 2020-09-01 | 盛安保险技术股份有限公司 | Engineering quality insurance risk management effect and scheme analysis method and system |
| CN114654090A (en) * | 2022-04-20 | 2022-06-24 | 广州明珞装备股份有限公司 | Laser welding tracing method, system, device, workstation and production line |
| CN114654090B (en) * | 2022-04-20 | 2024-05-14 | 广州明珞装备股份有限公司 | Laser welding traceability method, system, device, workstation and production line |
Similar Documents
| Publication | Publication Date | Title |
|---|---|---|
| CN102289734A (en) | Dynamic risk evaluation and management method for foundation pit engineering | |
| CN106021875B (en) | Multi-scale debris flow risk assessment method for seismic disturbance zone | |
| Yu et al. | Analysis of factors influencing safety management for metro construction in China | |
| CN103400044B (en) | A kind of water environment safety evaluation analysis method of improvement | |
| CN107704637B (en) | knowledge graph construction method for emergency | |
| CN106228808A (en) | City expressway travel time prediction method based on Floating Car space-time grid data | |
| CN111042143A (en) | Foundation pit engineering early warning method and system based on analysis of large amount of monitoring data | |
| CN104778369A (en) | Method and system for decision making and early warning based on ground subsidence monitoring | |
| Yang et al. | The fuzzy comprehensive evaluation of water and sand inrush risk during underground mining | |
| CN111859779B (en) | Method and device for early warning of third party construction damage risk of gas pipe network | |
| CN102184423B (en) | Full-automatic method for precisely extracting regional impervious surface remote sensing information | |
| CN112182234A (en) | Drainage basin flood control planning data knowledge graph construction method | |
| CN108922168A (en) | A kind of mid-scale view Frequent Accidents road sentences method for distinguishing | |
| CN109034286A (en) | Based on BIM and RFID construction risk source identification and management method | |
| CN105893352A (en) | Air quality early-warning and monitoring analysis system based on big data of social network | |
| CN111445369A (en) | Urban large-scale gathering activity intelligence early warning method and device based on L BS big data | |
| CN111144637A (en) | Regional power grid geological disaster forecasting model construction method based on machine learning | |
| CN115654381A (en) | Water supply pipeline leakage detection method based on graph neural network | |
| CN104318086A (en) | Channel smooth blasting quality evaluation prediction method | |
| CN110084460A (en) | A kind of quantization assessment method of obstacle free airspace condition | |
| Li et al. | Comprehensive Evaluation Model of Coal Mine Safety under the Combination of Game Theory and TOPSIS | |
| Nie et al. | Diagnosis of critical risk sources in the operation safety of the central route project of South-to-North water diversion based on the improved FMEA method | |
| CN105912775B (en) | The multi-modal modeling method of bridge dynamic weighing system vehicle axle weight data | |
| CN109064036B (en) | Ecosystem service supply and demand index change detection method facing management field | |
| Yu et al. | Vulnerability assessment and spatiotemporal differentiation of provinces tourism economic system based on the projection pursuit clustering model |
Legal Events
| Date | Code | Title | Description |
|---|---|---|---|
| C06 | Publication | ||
| PB01 | Publication | ||
| C10 | Entry into substantive examination | ||
| SE01 | Entry into force of request for substantive examination | ||
| C12 | Rejection of a patent application after its publication | ||
| RJ01 | Rejection of invention patent application after publication |
Application publication date: 20111221 |