CN101776774A - Time predicting method when typhoon front reaches earth surface - Google Patents

Abstract

The invention discloses a time predicting method when typhoon front reaches the earth surface, which is characterized by comprising the following steps: 1) measuring the initial density rho1 and the thickness h1 when the typhoon is formed, and the density rho2 of the atmosphere layer on the other side of an interface when the typhoon is not formed; 2), measuring a first peak time T1 of typhoon mass centre disturbance root mean square (namely RMS) in the acquired data; 3), calculating a time scale ts1 of a mesoscale space, wherein ts1=(h1/[2g(rho1-rho2)/(rho1+rho2)])<1/2>; and g is gravity acceleration; and 4), calculating the time Tf when the typhoon front reaches the earth surface, wherein Tf=T1/ts1=Tf/day(0), and day(0) approaches 1. In the time predicting method when the typhoon front reaches the earth surface, the time Tf when the typhoon front reaches the earth surface is calculated by measuring the initial density rho1 and the thickness h1 when the typhoon is formed, and the density rho2 of the atmosphere layer on the other side of the interface when the typhoon is not formed, and the first peak time T1 of the typhoon mass centre disturbance root mean square; and the time predicting method is easy to realize, can predict the time effect when the density of the typhoon is dispersed in a gravity field, and has the great significance of protecting life and property and the engineering safety and the like.

Description

The typhoon forward arrives the Time Forecast method of earth surface

Technical field

The present invention relates to the Time Forecast method that a kind of typhoon forward arrives earth surface, belong in the engineering and the relevant time course of the vertical mixing of typhoon.

Background technology

The forward that detects a typhoon arrives the time of earth surface, and the time effect that the density of typhoon spreads in gravity field is predicted, has great significance at aspects such as protection lives and properties and engineering safeties.But the research to this respect does not also have ripe experience at present.Application number is the method for measurement that 200710019989.0 applications for a patent for invention disclose a kind of finite time blast, may further comprise the steps: turbulent mixing process, take place in the liquid of (1) tilt-stable layering; (2) measure two characteristic times: leading peak contacts the time T of lower boundary _fWith first time to peak of barycenter disturbance root mean square T ₁(3) defining scalar t _S1, i.e. the yardstick of time; (4) t _S1=(h ₁/ [2g (ρ ₁-ρ ₂)/(ρ ₁+ ρ ₂)]) ^1/2, measure both sides, incipient stability interface than heavy-fluid volume density ρ ₁And thickness h ₁With than the light liquid density p ₂, obvious ρ ₁＞ρ ₂(5) calculate measurement result: T ₁/ t _S1=T _f/ s (0) | _{S (0) → 1}The method that we deal with problems more than can using for reference realizes that a kind of typhoon forward arrives the Time Forecast method of earth surface.

Summary of the invention

Technical matters to be solved by this invention provides the Time Forecast method that a kind of typhoon forward arrives earth surface.

For solving the problems of the technologies described above, the invention provides the Time Forecast method that a kind of typhoon forward arrives earth surface, it is characterized in that may further comprise the steps:

1) measures the initial density ρ that typhoon forms ₁And thickness h ₁Atmospheric density p when not forming typhoon ₂

2) measure first time to peak of typhoon barycenter disturbance root mean square T in the data that obtain ₁

3) the time scale t in calculating mesoscale space _S1: t _S1=(h ₁/ [2g (ρ ₁-ρ ₂)/(ρ ₁+ ρ ₂)]) ^1/2, wherein g is an acceleration of gravity;

4) calculate the typhoon forward and arrive the earth surface time T _f: T _f=T ₁/ t _S1=T _f/ day (0) | _{Day (0) → 1}

The beneficial effect that the present invention reached:

Typhoon forward of the present invention arrives the Time Forecast method of earth surface, by measuring the initial density ρ that typhoon forms ₁And thickness h ₁Atmospheric density p when not forming typhoon with the interface opposite side ₂And first time to peak of measurement typhoon barycenter disturbance root mean square T ₁, calculate the time T that the typhoon forward arrives earth surface _f, be easy to realize, and the time effect that the density of typhoon spreads in gravity field is predicted, have great significance at aspects such as protection lives and properties and engineering safeties.

Description of drawings

Fig. 1 is the Forecasting Methodology synoptic diagram of typhoon forward time of arriving earth surface.

Typhoon barycenter disturbance root mean square curve is RMS in the data that round dot among the figure (zero) representative measurement obtains, dotted line (---) the possible barycenter disturbance RMS of representative, T ₁Be first time to peak of typhoon barycenter disturbance root mean square RMS that measures, T _fIt is the time that arrives earth surface by the typhoon forward that calculating dopes.

Embodiment

Methods such as remote sensing via satellite, Flame Image Process, field measurement have obtained the primary data of (mesoscale space) atmospheric density space distribution in the atmospheric envelope scope in meteorological survey, measure one side heavier gas density ρ in interface under the typhoon initial interface situation ₁(being that typhoon forms initial density) and thickness h thereof ₁With the interface opposite side than the lighter-than-air gas density p ₂(atmospheric density when promptly not forming typhoon) measures and obtains first time to peak of typhoon barycenter disturbance root mean square (Root meansquare) T in the data ₁, its time unit's yardstick in the mesoscale space usually in sky (day).Definition finite time unit: day (0).With reference to the method for measurement patent of finite time blast, definition typhoon time scale scalar t _S1, that is:

t _S1=(h ₁/ [2g (ρ ₁-ρ ₂)/(ρ ₁+ ρ ₂)]) ^1/2, wherein g is an acceleration of gravity; The typhoon forward arrives the time T of earth surface _f: T ₁/ t _S1=T _f/ day (0) | _{Day (0) → 1}

Claims (1)

1. a typhoon forward arrives the Time Forecast method of earth surface, it is characterized in that may further comprise the steps:

1) measures the initial density ρ that typhoon forms ₁And thickness h ₁Atmospheric density p when not forming typhoon ₂

2) measure first time to peak of typhoon barycenter disturbance root mean square T in the data that obtain ₁

3) the time scale t in calculating mesoscale space _S1: t _S1=(h ₁/ [2g (ρ ₁-ρ ₂)/(ρ ₁+ ρ ₂)]) ^1/2, wherein g is an acceleration of gravity;

4) calculate the typhoon forward and arrive the earth surface time T _f: T _f=T ₁/ t _S1=T _f/ day (0) | _{Day (0) → 1}

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