CN101634721B - Historical data based intelligent early warning system for typhoon and flood - Google Patents
Historical data based intelligent early warning system for typhoon and flood Download PDFInfo
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- Y02—TECHNOLOGIES OR APPLICATIONS FOR MITIGATION OR ADAPTATION AGAINST CLIMATE CHANGE
- Y02A—TECHNOLOGIES FOR ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE
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- Y02A10/40—Controlling or monitoring, e.g. of flood or hurricane; Forecasting, e.g. risk assessment or mapping
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- Y—GENERAL TAGGING OF NEW TECHNOLOGICAL DEVELOPMENTS; GENERAL TAGGING OF CROSS-SECTIONAL TECHNOLOGIES SPANNING OVER SEVERAL SECTIONS OF THE IPC; TECHNICAL SUBJECTS COVERED BY FORMER USPC CROSS-REFERENCE ART COLLECTIONS [XRACs] AND DIGESTS
- Y02—TECHNOLOGIES OR APPLICATIONS FOR MITIGATION OR ADAPTATION AGAINST CLIMATE CHANGE
- Y02A—TECHNOLOGIES FOR ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE
- Y02A50/00—TECHNOLOGIES FOR ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE in human health protection, e.g. against extreme weather
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- Y—GENERAL TAGGING OF NEW TECHNOLOGICAL DEVELOPMENTS; GENERAL TAGGING OF CROSS-SECTIONAL TECHNOLOGIES SPANNING OVER SEVERAL SECTIONS OF THE IPC; TECHNICAL SUBJECTS COVERED BY FORMER USPC CROSS-REFERENCE ART COLLECTIONS [XRACs] AND DIGESTS
- Y02—TECHNOLOGIES OR APPLICATIONS FOR MITIGATION OR ADAPTATION AGAINST CLIMATE CHANGE
- Y02A—TECHNOLOGIES FOR ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE
- Y02A90/00—Technologies having an indirect contribution to adaptation to climate change
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- Y—GENERAL TAGGING OF NEW TECHNOLOGICAL DEVELOPMENTS; GENERAL TAGGING OF CROSS-SECTIONAL TECHNOLOGIES SPANNING OVER SEVERAL SECTIONS OF THE IPC; TECHNICAL SUBJECTS COVERED BY FORMER USPC CROSS-REFERENCE ART COLLECTIONS [XRACs] AND DIGESTS
- Y02—TECHNOLOGIES OR APPLICATIONS FOR MITIGATION OR ADAPTATION AGAINST CLIMATE CHANGE
- Y02A—TECHNOLOGIES FOR ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE
- Y02A90/00—Technologies having an indirect contribution to adaptation to climate change
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Abstract
The invention relates to a historical data based intelligent early warning system for typhoon and flood, comprising a database system used for storing historical data, predicting data and GIS base map data, a neural network prediction server, a WEBGIS graph display system and a WEB server, wherein the neural network prediction server is used to process the historical data to obtain prediction data which is then stored in the database system; the WEBGIS graph display system displays data in the database system graphically and publishes the data through the WEB server; the WEB server receives prediction request data inform a user client and displays the corresponding prediction result to the user in the form of WEB. Compared with the prior art, the invention has the characteristics of high prediction accuracy, intuitive display of the current storm surge information and forecasting of storm surge information. Besides, the historical data based intelligent early warning system for typhoon and flood can be taken as an auxiliary decision making system for forecasters to forecast storm surges.
Description
Technical field
The present invention relates to the typhoon and flood forecasting techniques, particularly relate to a kind of intelligent early warning system for typhoon and flood based on historical data.
Background technology
This disaster of typhoon has been brought many troubles to coastal cities.Yet Shanghai faces the East Sea, leans against Taihu Lake, and the entrance of Changjiang River is held in north under the arm, Hangzhou Wan is on the point of in south, belongs to the area, the former tidal network of waterways of typical flat in the Changjiang river and Taihu Lake basin downstream.The geographic position in Shanghai is special, thereby causes that through regular meeting the situation of " three meet and discuss " or " four meet and discuss " takes place.At present, main for the forecast of surging of typhoon still based on the artificial experience forecast, because human factor is too high, make prediction precision be affected.
Summary of the invention
Technical matters to be solved by this invention is exactly to provide a kind of intelligent early warning system for typhoon and flood based on historical data for the defective that overcomes above-mentioned prior art existence.
Purpose of the present invention can be achieved through the following technical solutions: a kind of intelligent early warning system for typhoon and flood based on historical data, it is characterized in that, comprise and be used for store historical data, the Database Systems of predicted data and GIS base map data, the neural network prediction server, WEBGIS graphic display system and WEB server, described neural network prediction server is handled historical data and is obtained predicted data, and deposit Database Systems in, described WEBGIS graphic display system is with the data in the system of graphics mode video data storehouse, and by the issue of WEB server, described WEB server receives the predictions request data of subscription client, and with the WEB form corresponding predicting the outcome is showed the user.
Described Database Systems comprise historical typhoon and hydrologic regime data database, typhoon and storm tide predicted data database, and GIS base map data database;
Described historical typhoon and hydrologic regime data database comprise that storage typhoon actual measurement and forecast data, storage are from the astronomical tide bit data of hydrology department, storage actual measurement hydrologic regime data and the storage typhoon name data from hydrology department;
Described typhoon and storm tide predicted data database comprise storage during each typhoon hydrologic regime data and forecast data and store each typhoon during to the forecast data of 6 hours, 12 hours, 24 hours typhoon tracks;
Described GIS base map data database comprises base electronic base map data and remote sensing image data.
Described neural network prediction server is the neural network prediction server based on Matlab, and this server is connected with the WEB server by the CGI expansion.
Described WEBGIS graphic display system comprises that with the data in the system of graphics mode video data storehouse the typhoon multipath shows, the typhoon thematic map shows and data presentation;
Described typhoon multipath shows by WEBGIS graphic display system accessing database system, according to the path of data generation typhoon;
Described typhoon thematic map is shown as tropical cyclone is divided into six grades by ground, nearly center maximum wind power, and each grade is with different color showings;
Described data presentation is with form display station wind data and hydrologic regime data.
Described WEBGIS graphic display system adopts the ArcIMS system of U.S. ESRI.
Described WEB server provides data display by JavaScript and html language for the user.
Compared with prior art, precision of prediction height of the present invention can show current and forecast storm tide information intuitively, simultaneously also can be as the aid decision-making system of forecaster when forecasting storm tide.
Description of drawings
Fig. 1 is a schematic diagram of the present invention;
Fig. 2 is typhoon track special topic screenshotss synoptic diagram;
Fig. 3 is the regimen information screenshotss synoptic diagram at the hydrometric station, park, Huangpu during the 0813 gloomy clarke typhoon;
Fig. 4 is for carrying out the submission page screenshotss synoptic diagram of typhoon information input with form web page;
Fig. 5 shows historical forecast screenshotss synoptic diagram as a result with form;
Fig. 6 shows the screenshotss synoptic diagram for the odd-numbered day tide curve.
Embodiment
The invention will be further described below in conjunction with accompanying drawing.
As shown in Figure 1, a kind of intelligent early warning system for typhoon and flood based on historical data, comprise and be used for store historical data, the Database Systems 1 of predicted data and GIS base map data, neural network prediction server 2, WEBGIS graphic display system 3 and WEB server 4,2 pairs of historical datas of described neural network prediction server are handled and are obtained predicted data, and deposit Database Systems 1 in, described WEBGIS graphic display system 3 is with the data in the system of graphics mode video data storehouse, and by 4 issues of WEB server, described WEB server 4 receives the predictions request data of subscription client, and with the WEB form corresponding predicting the outcome is showed the user.
Described Database Systems comprise historical typhoon and hydrologic regime data database, typhoon and storm tide predicted data database, and GIS base map data database; Described historical typhoon and hydrologic regime data database comprise that storage typhoon actual measurement and forecast data, storage are from the astronomical tide bit data of hydrology department, storage actual measurement hydrologic regime data and the storage typhoon name data from hydrology department; Described typhoon and storm tide predicted data database comprise storage during each typhoon hydrologic regime data and forecast data and store each typhoon during to the forecast data of 6 hours, 12 hours, 24 hours typhoon tracks; Described GIS base map data database comprises base electronic base map data and remote sensing image data; Described neural network prediction server is the neural network prediction server based on Matlab, and this server is connected with the WEB server by the CGI expansion; Described WEBGIS graphic display system comprises that with the data in the system of graphics mode video data storehouse the typhoon multipath shows, the typhoon thematic map shows and data presentation; Described typhoon multipath shows by WEBGIS graphic display system accessing database system, according to the path of data generation typhoon; Described typhoon thematic map is shown as tropical cyclone is divided into six grades by ground, nearly center maximum wind power, and each grade is with different color showings; Described data presentation is with form display station wind data and hydrologic regime data; Described WEBGIS graphic display system adopts the ArcIMS system of U.S. ESRI; Described WEB server provides data display by JavaScript and html language for the user.
Embodiment
Present embodiment is based on the typhoon of Matlab Web Server and the prediction of surging, and utilizes combining of Matlab and Web technology, and the Matlab program can be moved by web access on the computer that the Matlab program is not installed.Web server interrelates by CGI expansion and matlab service, and simultaneously, the kernel of matlab service and matlab program interrelates.Use the web server, we just can use matlab anywhere or anytime.The neural network prediction typhoon finished writing and the program of storm tide are placed on server end, calculate typhoon forecast information and storm tide information and return to client by html document and standard list then, simultaneously this result of calculation is stored in the data predicted storehouse, is convenient to call.
Present embodiment adopts ArcIMS graphic presentation platform: Geographic Information System (GIS) is under computing machine hardware and software system supports, to the relevant geographic distribution data in whole or part epigeosphere (the comprising atmospheric envelope) space gather, store, the technological system of management, computing, analysis, demonstration and description.The GIS groupware that U.S. ESRI company releases is the system of powerful, unified, complete, a scalable structure of integration system.ArcIMS is as the latest generation WebGIS software of ESRI company, have the product maturation, simply based on the interface of guide, powerful intelligent client, map edit and map annotation function, easily customization function, high-quality drawing function, telescopic architecture, support characteristics such as multiple development scheme.For needs management and issue figure and geodata, ArcIMS is a desirable graphic presentation software, by the instrument customization, needs hardly to programme and just can realize the Web publishing of graph data.The user can browse spatial data like a cork, make thematic maps by browsers such as IE.
The Database Systems of present embodiment:
1, historical typhoon, hydrologic regime data
Three research station data of typhoon data and Shanghai City of collecting are put in order and put in storage, be convenient to retrieval, call at any time, so that make various figures, image processing.SQL Server is the relational database management system (DBMS) by Microsoft exploitation and popularization, SQL Server is that data management and analysis have brought dirigibility, can easily store and retrieve data, can also service routine insert easily, renewal and deleted data.Typhoon and hydrologic regime data storehouse have been set up with unified standard standard, data layout is MS SQL Server, data comprise: (1) NORTHWESTERN PACIFIC TYPHOON data comprises nineteen twenty-one---typhoon track in 2008, every 6 hours center of typhoon air pressure, maximum wind velocity, translational speed, moving direction.(2) the Shanghai City rice market crosses hydrometric station, park, Huangpu hydrometric station and Wusong hydrometric station nineteen twenty-one---tidal level information during the typhoon in 2008 (every day twice climax and two Lower Low Waters astronomical tide and the time and the tidal level of actual measurement tide) and the tidal range information of the actual measurement tide in climax period and astronomical tide.Be divided into 4 table storages:
Storage list 1: table name is that taifeng is typhoon actual measurement and forecast data.Information comprises typhoon numbering, time, north latitude, east longitude, central pressure, nearly center wind-force, wind speed, translational speed, moving direction, 24h north latitude, 24h east longitude, 48h north latitude, 48h east longitude.In addition, the forecast data that has also comprised the U.S., Japan, Hong-Kong, TaiWan, China.
Storage list 2: table name is the astronomical tide bit data that TianwenChaowei storage comes from Shanghai City hydrology department, comprises on Huangpu River that three discharge sites were every astronomical tidal level, time of tide of 1 hour.
Storage list 3: table name is that ShiceChaowei is that storage comes from the actual measurement hydrologic regime data of Shanghai City hydrology department, comprises on Huangpu River that three discharge sites were every actual measurement tidal level, time of tide of 5 minutes.
Storage list 4: to be taifengbianhao be described the English name of each typhoon since 2000, Chinese, name source, expression meaning etc. table name.As the Longwang typhoon, Chinese " Dragon King " by name, this numbering is provided by China, and its meaning is " god of the department's rain in the mythical legend ".
2, typhoon, storm tide predicted data
Typhoon data and the typhoon information of surging of the prediction 24h that will calculate according to neural network are set up database, are convenient to show, add up.Be divided into two table storages:
Storage list 1: table name is hydrologic regime data and the system's forecast data during YubaoChaowei stores each typhoon, the typhoon that comprises corresponding astronomical climax, the forecast of actual measurement climax and the system data of surging.
Storage list 2: table name is that YubaoTaifeng stores system during each typhoon to the forecast information of 6 hours, 12 hours, 24 hours typhoon tracks, comprises north latitude, east longitude, central pressure, nearly center wind-force, wind speed, translational speed, moving direction.
3, base map data
Collect typhoon track and shown necessary electronic chart data, and carried out processing.
1. base electronic map: comprise global longitude and latitude grid (1 ° and 5 ° at interval), world's administration regional boundary, china administration zoning map (comprising provincial boundaries, prefecture-level city or area, county or county-level city, provincial capital, coastal important city), railway, river, lake.
2. remote sensing image: remote sensing is as a kind of new tool of Data Update, have visual pattern, in time, characteristics that quantity of information is abundant.Mainly collected global TM satellite remote-sensing image.
The system of present embodiment realizes:
1, typhoon and hydrologic regime data show
The typhoon data of collecting and hydrologic regime data and predicted data are set up database, show, show with form intuitively in the mode of ELEMENT CLASSIFICATION OF GIS VISUALIZATION.
1) multipath shows
System draws typhoon track by access station wind data storehouse automatically, accurately, fast at the ArcIMS server end.All typhoon tracks generate automatically by server, need not manual manufacture.The actual measurement of typhoon and predicted path are used different colours respectively, and distinguish with different colours with other position constantly at 2 o'clock every day, and the temporal information of typhoon the beginning and the end time and 2 o'clock every days is marked.
2) the typhoon thematic map shows
Tropical cyclone is divided into six grades by ground, nearly center maximum wind power: tropical depression (TD), maximum wind velocity 10.8～17.1m/s; Tropical storm (TS), maximum wind velocity 17.2～24.4m/s; Severe tropical storm (STS), maximum wind velocity 24.5～32.6m/s; Typhoon (TY), maximum wind velocity 32.7～41.4m/s; Violent typhoon (STY), maximum wind velocity 41.5～50.9m/s; Super Typhoon (SuperTY), maximum wind velocity＞51.0m/s.
Fig. 2 is the typhoon track thematic map, by the symbol demonstration of different colours, has intuitively expressed wind-force intensity and variation tendency in typhoon generation, the evolution.
3) data information shows
Form with form shows typhoon data and hydrologic regime data.Wherein the typhoon data presentation comprises typhoon numbering, time, north latitude, east longitude, central pressure, nearly center wind-force, wind speed, translational speed, moving direction etc.Hydrologic regime data shows is climax, the low tide of astronomical climax, low tide and the actual measurement of every day during the typhoon, and calculates typhoon and surge.
Fig. 3 is the regimen information at the hydrometric station, park, Huangpu during the 0813 gloomy clarke typhoon.
The neural network prediction server of present embodiment is to the processing of historical summary data:
A. the processing of typhoon early warning data
1, neural network parameter is selected:
The choice relation of neural network input and output parameter is to the accuracy of neural network algorithm, therefore, on the basis of list of references, seek the opinion of expert opinion simultaneously, choose longitude, latitude, central pressure, maximum wind velocity, translational speed and the moving direction of typhoon input parameter, 24 hours difference of longitudes, difference of latitude, the central pressure after 24 hours, maximum wind velocity, translational speed are supplied neural network learning as target component as neural network.Target component is calculated, 24h difference of longitude=Long24h-Long; 24h difference of latitude=Lat24h-Lat; Wherein Long24h, Lat24h represent the longitude and latitude behind the same typhoon 24h, and Long, Lat represent the current longitude and latitude of same typhoon input parameter.Typhoon parameter after 24h central pressure, 24h maximum wind velocity, 24h translational speed all adopt same typhoon with respect to input parameter 24h.See Table 1:
Table 1
2, neural network parameter is handled:
Because there is disappearance to a certain degree in data, therefore need screen data.In the typhoon parameter, longitude, latitude, central pressure, maximum wind velocity data integrity, therefore translational speed and moving direction data disappearance, delete the data item of translational speed and moving direction disappearance less than 5%.
Owing to be necessary for numeric type in the computation model, and moving direction is a character set, therefore moving direction must be converted to numeric type.Employing is designated as 1 with direct north, is recorded as 2 successively clockwise then---and 16, have 16 directions altogether.See Table 2:
Table 2
Based on the neural network convergent is considered, the processing of mobile degree is carried out in network input and target component.For the neural network simulation result is not limited in certain scope, network input and output parameter adopts carries out " normalization " divided by the method for a constant, and data are concentrated near 1 as far as possible.See Table 3:
Table 3
3, neural network learning and simulation:
In the Matlab environment, utilize Neural Network Toolbox to set up the BP neural network model, the e-learning data tape of handling well is gone into neural network learn and simulate.
Neural network foundation and study code are as follows:
The network analog code:
B. the processing of floods early warning data
1, data are selected
Because the stack of astronomical tide and typhoon storm tide causes flood easily, therefore adopting the typhoon data and 1999 of the data integrity of surging---the typhoon in 2008 and the corresponding data of surging carry out the neural network prognosis modelling of surging.See Table 4:
Table 4
Select the information of the corresponding typhoon of prediction climax in the morning (about 2), comprise the typhoon information of point observation the previous days 14 and the typhoon information of 20 point observation, wherein the typhoon information of 20 point observation is used to revise the 14 point predictions information of surging; Select the corresponding typhoon information of climax in afternoon (about 14) simultaneously, comprise the typhoon information of point observation on the same day 2 and the typhoon information of 8 point observation, wherein 8 typhoon information is used to revise the information of surging of 2 point predictions.
2, data pre-service
With Wusong, Shanghai City hydrometric station (31.38 ° of N, 121.05 ° E) as the fixed position of typhoon to the Shanghai regional influence, with its as typhoon apart from the starting at a little of Shanghai, the longitude and latitude that deducts Wusong hydrometric station with the observation position longitude and latitude of typhoon is as the typhoon of the network input distance apart from Shanghai.
See Table 5, for the convergence that realizes network and prediction accurately, data are carried out following processing:
Table 5
3, neural network learning and simulation
Utilize Matlab Neural Network Toolbox function to set up neural network, the typhoon of handling well and the data tape of surging are gone into neural network learn and simulate
Neural network makes up and the study code:
The network simulation code:
Corresponding twice climax every day of 4 times typhoon observation data every day (2 points, 8 points, 14 and 20 points) during utilizing above neural network learning and simulation code to typhoon (morning tide and afternoon tide) surged and simulated.
Present embodiment utilizes Matlab Web Server that the program of neural network prediction typhoon and storm tide is issued on server, and client can be under the situation that Matlab is not installed, and by the web access server, the input correlation parameter detects a typhoon and surges information.
Fig. 4 is the submission page that form web page carries out the input of typhoon information.
Fig. 5 is to the history forecast result of hydrometric station, park, Huangpu during all previous typhoon, when comprising astronomical tide, the time of tide, tidal level and the climax of tidal level and forecast at that time surge.
Fig. 6 is intraday tide curve, and transverse axis express time wherein is when unit is; The longitudinal axis is represented tidal level, and unit is a rice.Red curve is an astronomical tide, and blue curve is actual measurement tide, and blue round dot be actual climax information, coffee-like round dot and figure denote be the historical climax information of forecasting.Coffee-like round dot is near more from blue round dot, just represents that this forecast precision is high more.
Claims (4)
1. intelligent early warning system for typhoon and flood based on historical data, it is characterized in that, comprise and be used for store historical data, the Database Systems of predicted data and GIS base map data, the neural network prediction server, WEBGIS graphic display system and WEB server, described neural network prediction server is handled historical data and is obtained predicted data, and deposit Database Systems in, described WEBGIS graphic display system is with the data in the system of graphics mode video data storehouse, and by the issue of WEB server, described WEB server receives the predictions request data of subscription client, and with the WEB form corresponding predicting the outcome is showed the user;
Described Database Systems comprise historical typhoon and hydrologic regime data database, typhoon and storm tide predicted data database, and GIS base map data database;
Described historical typhoon and hydrologic regime data database comprise that storage typhoon actual measurement and forecast data, storage are from the astronomical tide bit data of hydrology department, storage actual measurement hydrologic regime data and the storage typhoon name data from hydrology department;
Described typhoon and storm tide predicted data database comprise storage during each typhoon hydrologic regime data and forecast data and store each typhoon during to the forecast data of 6 hours, 12 hours, 24 hours typhoon tracks;
Described GIS base map data database comprises base electronic base map data and remote sensing image data;
Described neural network prediction server handles to historical data that to obtain predicted data as follows:
A. the processing of typhoon early warning data: 1, neural network parameter is selected, and 2, neural network parameter handles, 3, neural network learning and simulation;
B. the processing of floods early warning data: 1, data are selected, and 2, the data pre-service, 3, neural network learning and simulation.
2. a kind of intelligent early warning system for typhoon and flood according to claim 1 based on historical data, it is characterized in that, described neural network prediction server is the neural network prediction server based on Matlab, and this server is connected with the WEB server by the CGI expansion.
3. a kind of intelligent early warning system for typhoon and flood according to claim 2 based on historical data, it is characterized in that described WEBGIS graphic display system comprises that with the data in the system of graphics mode video data storehouse the typhoon multipath shows, the typhoon thematic map shows and data presentation;
Described typhoon multipath shows by WEBGIS graphic display system accessing database system, according to the path of data generation typhoon;
Described typhoon thematic map is shown as tropical cyclone is divided into six grades by ground, nearly center maximum wind power, and each grade is with different color showings;
Described data presentation is with form display station wind data and hydrologic regime data.
4. a kind of intelligent early warning system for typhoon and flood based on historical data according to claim 1 is characterized in that described WEB server provides data display by JavaScript and html language for the user.
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