WO2020083091A1 - 电网故障的风险分析方法及系统 - Google Patents

电网故障的风险分析方法及系统 Download PDF

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WO2020083091A1
WO2020083091A1 PCT/CN2019/111671 CN2019111671W WO2020083091A1 WO 2020083091 A1 WO2020083091 A1 WO 2020083091A1 CN 2019111671 W CN2019111671 W CN 2019111671W WO 2020083091 A1 WO2020083091 A1 WO 2020083091A1
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combination
cascading
failure
deterministic
transmission line
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French (fr)
Inventor
陆佳政
张孝军
郭俊
李波
简洲
徐勋建
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State Grid Hunan Electric Power Co Ltd
Disaster Prevention and Mitigation Center of State Grid Hunan Electric Power Co Ltd
State Grid Corp of China SGCC
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State Grid Hunan Electric Power Co Ltd
Disaster Prevention and Mitigation Center of State Grid Hunan Electric Power Co Ltd
State Grid Corp of China SGCC
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Priority to AU2019280042A priority Critical patent/AU2019280042A1/en
Publication of WO2020083091A1 publication Critical patent/WO2020083091A1/zh
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    • H—ELECTRICITY
    • H02—GENERATION; CONVERSION OR DISTRIBUTION OF ELECTRIC POWER
    • H02J—ELECTRIC POWER NETWORKS; CIRCUIT ARRANGEMENTS OR SYSTEMS FOR SUPPLYING OR DISTRIBUTING ELECTRIC POWER; SYSTEMS FOR STORING ELECTRIC ENERGY
    • H02J3/00—Circuit arrangements for AC mains or AC distribution networks
    • G—PHYSICS
    • G06—COMPUTING OR CALCULATING; COUNTING
    • G06Q—INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY [ICT] SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES; SYSTEMS OR METHODS SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES, NOT OTHERWISE PROVIDED FOR
    • G06Q10/00—Administration; Management
    • G06Q10/06—Resources, workflows, human or project management; Enterprise or organisation planning; Enterprise or organisation modelling
    • G06Q10/063—Operations research, analysis or management
    • G06Q10/0635—Risk analysis of enterprise or organisation activities
    • G—PHYSICS
    • G06—COMPUTING OR CALCULATING; COUNTING
    • G06Q—INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY [ICT] SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES; SYSTEMS OR METHODS SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES, NOT OTHERWISE PROVIDED FOR
    • G06Q50/00—Information and communication technology [ICT] specially adapted for implementation of business processes of specific business sectors, e.g. utilities or tourism
    • G06Q50/06—Energy or water supply
    • H—ELECTRICITY
    • H02—GENERATION; CONVERSION OR DISTRIBUTION OF ELECTRIC POWER
    • H02J—ELECTRIC POWER NETWORKS; CIRCUIT ARRANGEMENTS OR SYSTEMS FOR SUPPLYING OR DISTRIBUTING ELECTRIC POWER; SYSTEMS FOR STORING ELECTRIC ENERGY
    • H02J3/00—Circuit arrangements for AC mains or AC distribution networks
    • H02J3/001—Arrangements for handling faults or abnormalities, e.g. emergencies or contingencies

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  • This application relates to the field of power grid protection, for example, a risk analysis method and system for power grid failure.
  • mountain fire disasters in China is increasing year by year. According to statistics, there are more than 80,000 mountain fire disasters nationwide.
  • the mountain fire disaster will reduce the air insulation, resulting in a mountain fire trip accident on the transmission line, and due to the long duration of the mountain fire disaster, the transmission line cannot be reclosed successfully.
  • the wildfire disaster is serious, there are more than a thousand places a day, which can easily lead to the simultaneous occurrence of wildfire trip accidents on multiple lines, especially the current UHV lines are gradually put into operation, and may cause multiple concurrent chain failures, which constitutes a safe operation of the power grid serious threat.
  • the main research focuses on the impact of mountain fire disasters on the transmission line itself, without considering the cascading failures caused by the mountain fire disasters. At the same time, due to the possibility of simultaneous outbreaks of the mountain fire disasters, it may also lead to Multiple concurrent chain failures.
  • This application provides a risk analysis method and system for power grid faults to avoid the cascading failure of grid fire disasters.
  • a power grid failure risk analysis method including: determining the affected transmission line based on the real-time monitoring and early warning results of wildfire, and calculating the probability of wildfire tripping of the affected transmission line; based on all the affected transmission lines ’ Mountain fire trip probability, construct an initial fault combination; calculate the deterministic cascading fault combination under the condition of the initial fault combination; based on the affected transmission line, the operating characteristics of the protection element of the affected transmission line, and the The deterministic cascading failure combination generates a probabilistic cascading failure combination under the condition of the initial failure combination; for each probabilistic cascading failure combination, calculate the grid stability margin under the condition of the probabilistic cascading failure combination; according to the grid stability Margin, calculate the degree of risk for each of the affected transmission lines.
  • the present application also provides a computer system, including a memory, a processor, and a computer program stored on the memory and executable on the processor.
  • a computer program stored on the memory and executable on the processor.
  • FIG. 1 is a schematic flowchart of a power grid fault risk analysis method provided by an embodiment of the present application
  • FIG. 2 is a schematic flowchart of a power grid fault risk analysis method provided by another embodiment of the present application.
  • the risk analysis method of power grid failure of the present application includes steps S1 to S8.
  • step S1 based on the real-time monitoring and early warning results of the mountain fire, the affected transmission line is determined and the probability of the mountain fire trip of the affected transmission line is calculated.
  • step S2 an initial fault combination is constructed based on the hill fire trip probability of all affected transmission lines.
  • step S3 the deterministic cascading failure combination under the initial failure combination condition is calculated.
  • step S4 based on the affected transmission line, the operating characteristics of the protection elements of the affected transmission line and the deterministic cascading fault combination, a probabilistic cascading fault combination under the deterministic cascading fault combination condition is generated.
  • step S6 for each probabilistic cascading failure combination, the grid stability margin under the condition of the probabilistic cascading failure combination is calculated.
  • step S7 according to the grid stability margin, the risk degree of each affected transmission line is calculated.
  • the above steps can quickly obtain the combination of concurrent cascading failures of the power grid under a mountain fire disaster, thereby calculating the risk level of each affected transmission line.
  • the risk analysis method of a power grid fault in this embodiment includes the following steps S1 to S8.
  • step S1 based on the real-time monitoring and early warning results of the mountain fire, the affected transmission line is determined and the probability of the mountain fire trip of the affected transmission line is calculated.
  • step S2 based on the hill fire trip probability of all affected transmission lines, an initial fault combination is constructed as follows:
  • step S201 for each affected transmission line, a floating point number of [0,1] is randomly generated. If the floating point number is less than the probability of wildfire trip of the line, the line is included in the initial fault combination in;
  • step S202 step S201 is repeated until all lines have completed step S201, and the initial fault combination is finally obtained:
  • step S3 set the cascading failure weight T, where T takes the value range [2, 8].
  • T takes the value range [2, 8].
  • I the second deterministic cascading fault combination of the ith fault combination
  • q is the number of lines in the second deterministic cascading fault combination
  • It is the g-th line in the second cascading fault of the i-th fault combination.
  • step S4 according to the operating characteristics of the affected transmission line and the protection elements of the affected transmission line, analyze the failure probability of the protection element (including protection element refusal or misoperation), and determine the corresponding response caused by the failure of the protection element According to the T-deterministic cascading fault combination, the faulty line generates a T-fold probabilistic cascading fault combination under the condition of T-deterministic cascading fault combination.
  • the 1-fold probabilistic cascading failure combination is generated according to the T-th deterministic cascading failure combination, as follows:
  • I the first probabilistic cascading failure combination of the i-th fault combination
  • h is the number of lines in the first probabilistic cascading failure combination
  • It is the t-th line in the first cascading fault of the i-th fault combination.
  • step S5 steps S2 to S4 are repeated K times to generate K T-fold probabilistic cascading failure combinations.
  • the value range of K is [50, 1000].
  • step S6 for each T-fold probabilistic cascading failure combination, the grid stability margin under the condition of the T-probability cascading failure combination is calculated.
  • the calculation formula of grid stability margin is:
  • Stability margin for static power grid Is the transient power grid stability margin; It is the stability margin of dynamic power grid.
  • step S7 according to the grid stability margin, the risk degree of each affected transmission line is calculated.
  • the calculation formula of the risk degree of the affected transmission line is:
  • step S8 according to the magnitude of the risk of each affected line, measures to prevent fire on the transmission line are determined.
  • the power grid fault risk analysis method of this embodiment includes the following steps:
  • the transmission lines affected at a certain time mainly include ⁇ 500kV line 1, 500kV line 3, 500kV line 8, 220kV line 4, 220kV line 6 ⁇ , and calculate each affected
  • the probability of tripping a fire on a transmission line is ⁇ 0.6, 0.2, 0.7, 0.5, 0.3 ⁇ .
  • step S201 for each affected transmission line, a floating point number of [0, 1] is randomly generated, and if the floating point number is less than the probability of wildfire trip of the line, the line is included in the initial fault combination in.
  • step S202 step S201 is repeated until all lines have completed step S201, and the initial fault combination is finally obtained:
  • step S4 on the basis of step S3, 500kV line 6 protection refuses to operate, which will cause the protection action of 500kV line 11 and 500kV line 12 to trip, and then generate a single probability cascading fault under the condition of a double deterministic cascading fault
  • 500kV line 6 protection refuses to operate, which will cause the protection action of 500kV line 11 and 500kV line 12 to trip, and then generate a single probability cascading fault under the condition of a double deterministic cascading fault
  • F i 1 ⁇ 500kV line 11, 500kV line 12 ⁇ .
  • step S5 steps S201-S4 are repeated to generate 100 double probability chain failure combinations.
  • step S6 for each two-fold probabilistic cascading fault combination, the grid stability margin under the condition of the two-probability fault combination is calculated, and the calculation formula is as follows:
  • Stability margin for static power grid Is the transient power grid stability margin;
  • For the dynamic power grid stability margin It is the stability margin of the power grid under the condition of the i-th double probability cascading failure combination.
  • step S7 the risk degree of each affected line is calculated, the calculation formula is as follows:
  • Y i is the risk degree of the ith line
  • q is the number of initial fault combinations including the ith line
  • I is the stability margin under the jth 2-fold probabilistic cascading failure combination (and the initial fault combination corresponding to the 2-probability cascading failure combination contains the ith line)
  • N is the total number of 2-probability cascading failure combinations
  • m The number of transmission lines.
  • the top 3 lines with the highest degree of risk are: 500kV line 1, 500kV line 8, 500kV line 7.
  • step S8 according to the magnitude of the risk of each affected line, scientific guidance on the transmission line fire protection measures should focus on 500kV line 1, 500kV line 8 and 500kV line 7.
  • This embodiment provides a computer system, including a memory, a processor, and a computer program stored on the memory and executable on the processor.
  • the processor executes the computer program, the power grid failure of any of the foregoing embodiments is implemented Risk analysis methods.
  • this application can quickly analyze the risk of multiple concurrent cascading failures of the power grid under the conditions of mountain fires, calculate the risk level of each transmission line, quantify the areas with high power grid risks, and guide the grid to prevent and control fire prevention measures. Safe and stable operation of large power grids. The principle is clear, the operation is convenient, and it has high practical value. It has a scientific guiding role in the targeted disposal of power grid risks under the fire disaster.

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Abstract

一种电网故障的风险分析方法及系统，该方法包括：根据山火实时监测预警结果，确定受影响的输电线路并计算输电线路的山火跳闸概率（S1）；根据所有受影响的输电线路的山火跳闸概率，构建初始故障组合（S2）；计算初始故障组合条件下的确定性连锁故障组合（S3）；根据受影响的输电线路，受影响的输电线路的保护元件的运行特性以及确定性连锁故障组合，生成确定性连锁故障组合条件下的概率性连锁故障组合（S4）；针对每个概率性连锁故障组合，计算所述概率性连锁故障组合条件下的电网稳定裕度（S6）；根据所述电网稳定裕度，计算每条受影响的输电线路的风险程度（S7）。

Description

电网故障的风险分析方法及系统
本申请要求在2018年10月25日提交中国专利局、申请号为201811250188.X的中国专利申请的优先权，该申请的全部内容通过引用结合在本申请中。
技术领域
本申请涉及电网防护领域，例如一种电网故障的风险分析方法及系统。
背景技术
当前，中国山火灾害发生呈逐年上升趋势，据统计，全国范围一年山火火点数量高达8万多起。山火灾害会降低空气绝缘，导致输电线路发生山火跳闸事故，且由于山火灾害持续时间较长，输电线路无法重合闸成功。山火灾害严重时一天多多达上千处，极易导致多条线路同时发生山火跳闸事故，特别是当前特高压线路逐步投入运行，还有可能引发多条并发连锁故障，对电网安全运行构成严重威胁。
目前，主要研究集中于山火灾害对输电线路本身的影响，未考虑山火灾害导致发生连锁故障的情形，同时，由于山火灾害存在同时集中爆发的可能性，因此，还有可能会导致引发多条并发连锁故障。
发明内容
本申请提供了一种电网故障的风险分析方法及系统以避免电网山火灾害并发连锁故障的情况。
本申请提出的技术方案为：
一种电网故障的风险分析方法，包括：根据山火实时监测预警结果，确定受影响的输电线路并计算所述受影响的输电线路的山火跳闸概率；根据所有所述受影响的输电线路的山火跳闸概率，构建初始故障组合；计算所述初始故障组合条件下的确定性连锁故障组合；根据所述受影响的输电线路，所述受影响的输电线路的保护元件的运行特性，以及所述确定性连锁故障组合，生成所述初始故障组合条件下的概率性连锁故障组合；针对每个概率性连锁故障组合，计算概率性连锁故障组合条件下的电网稳定裕度；根据所述电网稳定裕度，计算每条所述受影响的输电线路的风险程度。
本申请还提供一种计算机系统，包括存储器、处理器以及存储在所述存储器上并可在所述处理器上运行的计算机程序，所述处理器执行所述计算机程序时，实现上述电网故障风险分析方法。
附图说明
图1是本申请一实施例提供的电网故障的风险分析方法的流程示意图；
图2是本申请又一实施例提供的电网故障的风险分析方法的流程示意图。
具体实施方式
以下结合附图对本申请的实施例进行详细说明，但是本申请可以由权利要 求限定和覆盖的多种不同方式实施。
参见图1，本申请的电网故障的风险分析方法，包括步骤S1至步骤S8。
在步骤S1中，根据山火实时监测预警结果，确定受影响的输电线路并计算受影响的输电线路的山火跳闸概率。
在步骤S2中，根据所有受影响的输电线路的山火跳闸概率，构建初始故障组合。
在步骤S3中，计算初始故障组合条件下的确定性连锁故障组合。
在步骤S4中，根据受影响的输电线路，所述受影响的输电线路的保护元件的运行特性以及确定性连锁故障组合，生成确定性连锁故障组合条件下的概率性连锁故障组合。
在步骤S6中，针对每个概率性连锁故障组合，计算概率性连锁故障组合条件下的电网稳定裕度。
在步骤S7中，根据电网稳定裕度，计算每条受影响的输电线路的风险程度。
上述步骤，可快速得到山火灾害下电网并发连锁故障组合，从而计算得到每条受影响的输电线路的风险程度。
实际实施时，以上的方法还能进行以下的扩充或应用，以下实施例中的技术特征都能相互组合，实施例仅作为示例，不作为对技术特征的正常组合限制。
参见图2，本实施例的电网故障的风险分析方法，包括以下步骤S1至步骤S8。
在步骤S1中，根据山火实时监测预警结果，确定受影响的输电线路并计算受影响的输电线路的山火跳闸概率。
在步骤S2中，根据所有受影响的输电线路的山火跳闸概率，构建初始故障组合，如下：
在步骤S201中，对每条受影响的输电线路，随机生成一个[0,1]的浮点数，在该浮点数小于该线路的山火跳闸概率的情况下，将该线路包含在初始故障组合中；
在步骤S202中，重复步骤S201直到所有的线路均完成了步骤S201，最终得到初始故障组合：
Figure PCTCN2019111671-appb-000001
式中，
Figure PCTCN2019111671-appb-000002
为第i个初始故障组合；n为初始故障组合中线路的条数；
Figure PCTCN2019111671-appb-000003
为第i个初始故障组合中的第j条线路。
在步骤S3中，设定连锁故障重数T，其中，T的取值范围为[2，8]。计算初始故障组合条件下的T重确定性连锁故障组合。确定性连锁故障包括：过载故障和失稳故障。T重确定性连锁故障组合按如下方式得到：
首先计算初始故障组合条件下的1重确定性连锁故障组合，即
Figure PCTCN2019111671-appb-000004
式中，
Figure PCTCN2019111671-appb-000005
为第i个故障组合的第1重确定性连锁故障组合；s为该第1重确定性连锁故障组合中线路的条数；
Figure PCTCN2019111671-appb-000006
为第i个故障组合的第1重连锁故障中的第 k条线路。
接下来，根据上述1重确定性连锁故障组合，计算该初始故障组合条件下的2重确定性故障组合，即，
Figure PCTCN2019111671-appb-000007
式中，
Figure PCTCN2019111671-appb-000008
为第i个故障组合的第2重确定性连锁故障组合；q为第2重确定性连锁故障组合中线路的条数；
Figure PCTCN2019111671-appb-000009
为第i个故障组合的第2重连锁故障中的第g条线路。
上述仅以T＝2为例进行介绍，T为其他重数时，均在第T-1重确定性连锁故障组合的基础上生成，在此不做赘述。
在步骤S4中，根据受影响的输电线路及受影响的输电线路的保护元件的运行特性，分析保护元件的故障概率(包括保护元件拒动或误动)，并确定保护元件的故障引发的相应故障的线路，根据T重确定性连锁故障组合，生成T重确定性连锁故障组合条件下的T重概率性连锁故障组合。
其中，1重概率性连锁故障组合根据第T重确定性连锁故障组合生成，如下式：
Figure PCTCN2019111671-appb-000010
式中，
Figure PCTCN2019111671-appb-000011
为第i个故障组合的第1重概率性连锁故障组合；h为该第1重概率性连锁故障组合中线路的条数；
Figure PCTCN2019111671-appb-000012
为第i个故障组合的第1重连锁故障中的第t条线路。
接下来，根据上述第1重概率性连锁故障组合生成第2重概率性连锁故障组合，如下式:
Figure PCTCN2019111671-appb-000013
式中，
Figure PCTCN2019111671-appb-000014
为第i个故障组合的第2重概率性连锁故障组合；u为第2重概率性连锁故障组合中线路的条数；
Figure PCTCN2019111671-appb-000015
为第i个故障组合的第2重连锁故障中的第r条线路。
在步骤S5中，重复K次步骤S2-步骤S4，生成K个T重概率性连锁故障组合。实施时，K的取值范围为[50，1000]。
在步骤S6中，针对每个T重概率性连锁故障组合，计算该T重概率性连锁故障组合条件下的电网稳定裕度。电网稳定裕度的计算公式为：
Figure PCTCN2019111671-appb-000016
式中，
Figure PCTCN2019111671-appb-000017
为每个T重概率性连锁故障组合条件下的电网稳定裕度，
Figure PCTCN2019111671-appb-000018
为静态电网稳定裕度；
Figure PCTCN2019111671-appb-000019
为暂态电网稳定裕度；
Figure PCTCN2019111671-appb-000020
为动态电网稳定裕度。
在步骤S7中，根据电网稳定裕度，计算每条受影响的输电线路的风险程度。受影响的输电线路的风险程度的计算公式为：
Figure PCTCN2019111671-appb-000021
式中，Yi为第i条线路的风险指标；q为包含第i条线路的初始故障组合数 量；
Figure PCTCN2019111671-appb-000022
为包含第i条线路的初始故障组合中第j个T重概率性连锁故障组合下的稳定裕度；N为T重概率性连锁故障组合总数；m为受影响的输电线路的条数。
在步骤S8中，根据每条受影响的线路的风险程度的大小，确定输电线路防山火措施。
本实施例是上述实施例的应用例，本实施例的电网故障风险分析方法，包括以下步骤：
在步骤S1中，根据山火实时监测预警结果，某一时刻受影响的输电线路主要包括{500kV线路1，500kV线路3，500kV线路8，220kV线路4，220kV线路6}，计算每条受影响的输电线路山火跳闸概率为{0.6，0.2，0.7，0.5，0.3}。
在步骤S201中，对每条受影响的输电线路，随机生成一个[0，1]的浮点数，在该浮点数小于该线路的山火跳闸概率的情况下，将该线路包含在初始故障组合中。
在步骤S202中，重复步骤S201直到所有的线路均完成了步骤S201，最终得到初始故障组合：
Figure PCTCN2019111671-appb-000023
在步骤S3中，设定连锁故障重数为T＝2，首先计算初始故障组合条件下的1重确定性连锁故障线路，在500kV线路1、500kV线路8和220kV线路4同时发生山火跳闸事故的情况下，会导致500kV线路7和220kV线路9发生过载，因而，得到初始故障组合下的1重确定性连锁故障组合为：
Figure PCTCN2019111671-appb-000024
在500kV线路7和220kV线路9同时发生过载的情况下，会导致500kV线路6和220kV线路5发生过载，因而，得到2重确定性连锁故障线路集集合为：
Figure PCTCN2019111671-appb-000025
在步骤S4中，在步骤S3的基础上，500kV线路6保护拒动，将导致500kV线路11和500kV线路12保护动作跳闸，进而生成2重确定性连锁故障组合条件下的1重概率性连锁故障组合如下式：
F i 1＝{500kV线路11，500kV线路12}。
在500kV线路11和500kV线路12保护动作跳闸后，500kV线路13保护拒动，进而生成2重概率性连锁故障组合，如下式：
F i 2＝{500kV线路13}。在步骤S5中，重复步骤S201-步骤S4，生成100个2重概率性连锁故障组合。
在步骤S6中，针对每一个2重概率性连锁故障组合，计算该2重概率性故障组合条件下的电网稳定裕度，计算公式如下：
Figure PCTCN2019111671-appb-000026
式中，
Figure PCTCN2019111671-appb-000027
为静态电网稳定裕度；
Figure PCTCN2019111671-appb-000028
为暂态电网稳定裕度；
Figure PCTCN2019111671-appb-000029
为动态电网稳定裕度；
Figure PCTCN2019111671-appb-000030
为第i个2重概率性连锁故障组合条件下的电网稳定裕度。
在步骤S7中，计算每条受影响的线路的风险程度，计算公式如下：
Figure PCTCN2019111671-appb-000031
式中，Y i为第i条线路的风险程度；q为包含第i条线路的初始故障组合数量；
Figure PCTCN2019111671-appb-000032
为第j个2重概率性连锁故障组合(且该2重概率性连锁故障组合对应的初始故障组合包含第i条线路)下的稳定裕度；N为2重概率性连锁故障组合总数；m为输电线路的条数。
得到风险程度排名前3的线路为：500kV线路1，500kV线路8，500kV线路7。
在步骤S8中，根据每条受影响的线路的风险程度大小，科学指导输电线路防山火措施布防应着重考虑500kV线路1、500kV线路8和500kV线路7。
本实施例提供一种计算机系统，包括存储器、处理器以及存储在存储器上并可在处理器上运行的计算机程序，所述处理器执行所述计算机程序时，实现上述任一实施例的电网故障风险分析方法。
综上可知，本申请可快速分析山火灾害条件下电网多条并发连锁故障风险，计算得到每条输电线路的风险程度，量化分析电网风险高的区域，指导电网防山火措施精准布控，保障大电网安全稳定运行。原理清晰，操作方便，具有很高的实用价值，对山火灾害下电网风险针对性处置有科学指导作用。

Claims (11)

  1. 一种电网故障的风险分析方法，包括：
    根据山火实时监测预警结果，确定受影响的输电线路并计算所述受影响的输电线路的山火跳闸概率；
    根据所有所述受影响的输电线路的山火跳闸概率，构建初始故障组合；
    计算所述初始故障组合条件下的确定性连锁故障组合；
    根据所述受影响的输电线路，所述受影响的输电线路的保护元件的运行特性，以及所述确定性连锁故障组合，生成所述确定性连锁故障组合条件下的概率性连锁故障组合；
    针对每个所述概率性连锁故障组合，计算所述概率性连锁故障组合条件下的电网稳定裕度；
    根据所述电网稳定裕度，计算每条所述受影响的输电线路的风险程度。
  2. 根据权利要求1所述的方法，其中，
    所述计算所述初始故障组合条件下的确定性连锁故障组合，包括：
    设定连锁故障重数T，计算所述初始故障组合条件下的T重确定性连锁故障组合；
    所述根据受影响的输电线路，所述受影响的输电线路的保护元件的运行特性，以及所述确定性连锁故障组合，生成所述确定性连锁故障组合条件下的概率性连锁故障组合，包括：
    根据所述受影响的输电线路，所述受影响的输电线路的保护元件的运行特性，以及所述T重确定性连锁故障组合，生成所述T重确定性连锁故障组合条件下的T重概率性连锁故障组合；
    重复K次以下步骤，生成K个T重概率性连锁故障组合：
    根据所有所述受影响的输电线路的山火跳闸概率，构建初始故障组合；计算所述初始故障组合条件下的T重确定性连锁故障组合；根据所述受影响的输电线路，所述受影响的输电线路的保护元件的运行特性，以及所述T重确定性连锁故障组合，生成所述T重确定性连锁故障组合条件下的T重概率性连锁故障组合；
    其中，所述每个概率性连锁故障组合是指每一个T重连锁故障组合。
  3. 根据权利要求2所述的方法，其中，T的取值范围为[2，8]，K的取值范围为[50，1000]。
  4. 根据权利要求1所述的方法，其中，所述根据所有所述受影响的输电线路的山火跳闸概率，构建初始故障组合，包括：
    对每条受影响的输电线路，随机生成一个[0，1]的浮点数，在所述浮点数小于所述受影响的输电线路的山火跳闸概率的情况下，将所述受影响的输电线路包含在所述初始故障组合中。
  5. 根据权利要求1所述的方法，其中，所述根据所述受影响的输电线路，所述受影响的输电线路的保护元件的运行特性，以及所述确定性连锁故障组合，生成确定性连锁故障组合条件下的概率性连锁故障组合，包括：
    根据所述受影响的输电输电线路，以及所述受影响的输电线路的保护元件 的运行特性，分析所述保护元件的故障概率，并确定由所述保护元件的故障引发的相应故障的线路，根据所述确定性连锁故障组合，生成所述确定性连锁故障组合条件下的概率性连锁故障组合。
  6. 根据权利要求5所述的方法，其中，所述保护元件的故障概率中的故障包括：所述保护元件拒动或误动。
  7. 根据权利要求1至6中任一项所述的方法，其中，所述确定性连锁故障组合中的确定性连锁故障包括：过载故障或失稳故障。
  8. 根据权利要求1至6中任一项所述的方法，还包括：根据每条所述受影响的输电线路的风险程度的大小，确定输电线路防山火措施。
  9. 根据权利要求1至6中任一项所述的方法，其中，所述电网稳定裕度的计算公式为：
    Figure PCTCN2019111671-appb-100001
    式中，
    Figure PCTCN2019111671-appb-100002
    为第i个T重概率性连锁故障组合条件下的电网稳定裕度；
    Figure PCTCN2019111671-appb-100003
    为静态电网稳定裕度；
    Figure PCTCN2019111671-appb-100004
    为暂态电网稳定裕度；
    Figure PCTCN2019111671-appb-100005
    为动态电网稳定裕度。
  10. 根据权利要求9所述的方法，其中，每条所述受影响的输电线路的风险程度的计算公式为：
    Figure PCTCN2019111671-appb-100006
    式中，Y i为第i条线路的风险程度；q为包含第i条线路的初始故障组合数量；
    Figure PCTCN2019111671-appb-100007
    为包含第i条线路的初始故障组合的第j个T重连锁故障组合下的稳定裕度；N为T重概率性连锁故障组合总数；m为受影响的输电线路的条数。
  11. 一种计算机系统，包括存储器、处理器以及存储在所述存储器上并可在所述处理器上运行的计算机程序，所述处理器执行所述计算机程序时，实现上述权利要求1至10中任一项所述的方法。
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