WO2012131553A1

WO2012131553A1 - A system and method for estimating distribution of outbound roamers

Info

Publication number: WO2012131553A1
Application number: PCT/IB2012/051404
Authority: WO
Inventors: Bahri Okuroglu
Original assignee: Turkcell Teknoloji Arastirma Ve Gelistirme Anonim Sirketi
Priority date: 2011-03-25
Filing date: 2012-03-23
Publication date: 2012-10-04
Also published as: TR201102878A2

Abstract

The present invention relates to a system (1) and method (100) enabling to operate this system (1) which is intended for estimating distribution and number of outbound roamers of competitor operators and comprises: at least one mobile device (2) which is used the local subscriber; at least one local network (3); at least one VLR (4); at least one SMSC (5) which enables to send/receive SMS in the local network (3); at least one distribution estimation unit (6) which uses messaging traffic that is carried out for SMS's sent by local network (3) subscribers to domestic competitor network (B) subscribers; and at least one database (7) which is a permanent storage media.

Description

A SYSTEM AND METHOD FOR ESTIMATING DISTRIBUTION OF

OUTBOUND ROAMERS

Technical Field

The present invention relates to a system and method which estimates distribution and number of outbound roamers of domestic operators in GSM (Global System for Mobile Communications) networks. Background of the Invention

While operators can obtain distribution of number of their outbound roamers on operators in any country over their systems, it is not possible for them to learn number and distribution of outbound roamers of other domestic competitor operators. This information can be obtained by requesting it from all operators in a foreign country, however, operators will not provide such information to their competitors.

Another method may be calculation of number and distribution of outbound roamers of operators and publication of this by a central institution that follows international traffic of all domestic operators. But there is no such central institution. No operator shares its international and information on this with another institution. Even if in some countries, where governments want to flow all traffic over them in order to control information, governments can detect this information they do not share the said information with operators. Another central institution may be international / national carriers that are used by operators in order to reach other operators. However, detection of a number and distribution in this way is not possible due to the fact that each operator can get service from different and several number of carrier. Additionally, it is out of question for carriers who are business enterprises to share information of a customer with other customers thereof.

In light of this information, it is clearly seen that there is no technically applicable method in this in this matter.

GSM operators bargain and make agreements with other operators about fees to be charged for services which they provide to each other's subscribers. As a consequence of these negotiations, operators make commitments to each other in return for getting more favorable unit cost. During these negotiations, operators having high number of inbound and outbound roamer can bargain better. Like in all negotiations, operators cannot know minimum price of each other. However, the fact that an operator can relatively know status of domestic competitors will be an additional information which will provide advantage to itself during these negotiations. Thus, this information can also be used for different purposes to provide competitive advantage apart from a use.

Due to these reasons, it is a necessity for GSM operators to know number and distribution of outbound roamers of their competitors. However, today there is no technically applicable method which is used for determining distribution and number of outbound roamers of operators about their competitors.

Subscribers of each operator are in close interaction with other competitor subscribers. So, call and SMS (Short message Service) traffic occurs between subscribers of domestic operators. Operators may be pricing traffic (such as call and messaging from their subscriber to their subscriber) within themselves less than traffic towards another operator subscriber. As a result, although traffic ratio that will end within the operator can be higher, traffic towards other operator subscribers will still be in a considerable amount. Call and SMS traffic started by the operator's own subscribers, can be used in order to estimate number and distribution of outbound roamers of competitor operators in following conditions:

Traffic should be towards domestic operators (the operator itself and its competitors) subscribers.

Operator from where the subscriber, who is the target of the message traffic carried out, gets service actively at that moment should be detectable.

Operator where the traffic ends should be a foreign operator, in other words the subscriber where the traffic ends should be outbound roaming.

Messaging which is used during call made towards another operator subscriber by the operator's own subscribers, is transmitted to the subscriber's own operator who receives the call and because the said operator routes the call at his/her will, it is not technically possible for the network where the call was started to detect the network where the call ended by examining the messaging during the call.

Messaging which is used during SMS sent by the operator's own subscribers towards another operator subscriber, is shown in Figure 1. Here, a scenario is displayed where the subscriber receiving the SMS is not present at the network of the subscriber sending the message.

The subscriber's request to send message is by the MSC (VI) where the subscriber is getting service, to the SMSC (S) (Sort Message Service) in the local network by message of MO-FSM (Mobile Originated Forward Short Message) MAP (Mobile Application Part). In order to send SMS, the SMSC (S) inquiries the HLR (H) (Home Location Register) of the SMS receiver by SRI-SM (Send Routing Info for Short Message) MAP message about the VLR where the receiver is present. The HLR (H) returns information of VLR (V2) from where the subscriber is getting service at that moment, as response. The SMS receiver subscriber may be either getting service from his/her network or service from other operators by utilizing from roaming service in national and international way. Like other nodes in GSM network, VLR's are addressed by GT (Global Title). HLR returns E.164 address of the VLR from where the roaming subscriber is getting service, as response. Because structure of this address is in the form of country code, operator code and part specific to the node; information of country and operator where the VLR is present can be detected from this address. Therefore, messaging which is carried out for SMS's sent by the operator's own subscribers the competitor operator's subscribers, is the only messaging in conformity with the above-stated criteria.

It cannot be detected by the traffic complying with these criteria in which operator all subscribers are present. Only the operators where the competitor operator's subscribers communicated by the operator's own subscribers are present, are detected. However, it can be accepted that this is substantially same for general by the following assumption/approaches:

It is assumed that behaviors of each operator's subscribers in a country are approximately similar. In other words, people with different profiles in the country are distributed to operators as subscriber uniformly.

Set of competitor operator's subscribers communicated by the operator's own subscribers, show general characteristics with the set of total competitor operator's subscribers.

- Even if subscribers get service from different operators in the course of time, message of this subscriber indicates the network at the moment when it is received. This still gives an opinion adaptable to general.

The International Patent document no. WO2009018534 discloses a method invention which is designed in order to provide roaming management of an operator. The invention is based on obtaining and examining signaling messages of one or more roamers on gateway associated with the operator.

Summary of the Invention

An objective of the present invention is to realize a system and method which enables to estimate distribution and number of outbound roamers of domestic operators real-likely. Description of the Invention

"A System and Method for Estimating Distribution of Outbound Roamers" realized to fulfill the objective of the present invention is shown in the figures attached, in which:

Figure 1 is a block diagram illustrating SMS message flow from a local subscriber to another network's roamer.

Figure 2 is a sample schematic block diagram of an embodiment of the inventive system.

Figure 3 is a sample schematic block diagram of another embodiment of the inventive system.

Figure 4 is a flowchart of the method which enables to operate the inventive system.

The components illustrated in the figure are individually numbered, where the numbers refer to the following.

1. System

2. Mobile device 3. Local network

4. VLR (Visitor Location Register)

5. SMSC (Short Message Service Center)

6. Distribution estimation unit

7. Database

100. Method

A. Mobile device of outbound roamer

B. Domestic competitor network

C. Foreign network

D. International carrier network

E. VLR

F. HLR

A system which enables to estimate distribution and number of outbound roamers of competitor operators real-likely (1) comprises:

at least one mobile device (2) which has feature of SMS sending/receiving and is used the local subscriber;

at least one local network (3) from where mobile devices (2) of local subscribers get service;

at least one VLR (4) which is provided in the local network (3) and performs process of keeping records of subscribers who are physically present at that region, temporarily;

at least one SMSC (5) which belongs to the local network (3) and enables to send/receive SMS in the local network (3);

at least one distribution estimation unit (6) which detects distribution and number of outbound roamers of the domestic competitor network (B) using messaging traffic that is carried out for SMS's sent by local network (3) subscribers to domestic competitor network (B) subscribers; and at least one database (7) which is a permanent storage media in which information of IMSI (International Mobile Subscriber Identity) and network are stored for SMS's that are sent by outbound roamers

(Figure 3 and Figure 4).

Given that total number of subscriber with whom a subscriber gets in contact is N and amount of traffic (call or message) created towards each of them is M. In in normal situations, if it is considered that operators share people profile in the country in a uniformly distributed way; other subscribers with whom a subscriber gets in contact are expected to be distributed among operators in the country in accordance with market share of operators (on the basis of number of subscribers).

For example, given that there are 3 different operators in the country and market shares of them are pi, p₂, p₃ by percent. Then, N*M*pi of the traffic generated by the subscriber will be towards subscribers of the first operator, N*M*p₂ towards subscribers of the second operator and N*M*p₃ towards subscribers of the third operator, respectively.

As mentioned above, due to pricing differences, traffic created by subscribers towards their operator subscribers will be more different in ratio of q. Because operators will try to keep the traffic in their own networks, it is anticipated that 1

< q-

When the above-stated calculation is reconsidered, a traffic sharing will be obtained as follows:

- traffic hplmn = N * M * Vhplmn * q

traffic competitor ^~ N * M * V competitor

subscriber _number₀p_erator

IP operator

∑ X-.alloperatorsinthecountry subscriber numberX ∑x:all competitor operators in the country Px (1 Vhp Imn)

Then, a call started from an operator and distribution of operator where messages will end can be determined as follows:

payhpim

Phplmn*^{a +} (1 Phplmn)

Pcompetitor

p i competitor ,

Phplmn* ⁺ I.¹ Phplmn)

In this part, it is aimed to explain that distribution of the operator where the traffic created by the subscribers of the operator ends is proportionate to numbers of subscriber, however, the traffic ending in the operator can be different up to a certain parameter (q).

While parameter of q can be different for different traffic types such as SMS or call, it will be independent of the location of the subscriber where the traffic ends. In other words, parameter of q is constant independently of whether the subscriber to whom the SMS was sent is outbound roaming or not.

Because this parameter (q) is used in distribution and number calculations by the inventive system (1), its value must be known. For detection of this parameter, the inventive system (1) suggests use of subscriber and SMS number of the operator and its competitors. Because operators know total subscriber number of their competitors and amount of traffic (number of SMS) leaving them and ending in each competitor and itself, they can detect parameter of q based on the above- stated formulas.

■.alloperatorslnthecountry subscriber _count_x

Qsms ^' _t ,

expected ratio The inventive system (1) operates based on estimating distribution and number of outbound roamers of competitor operator in foreign network (C) and countries using messaging traffic which is carried out for SMS's sent by their own subscribers to subscribers of domestic competitor operator.

Operators can learn information about in which networks (B or C) SMS's that are sent from their own networks (3) end, over different systems and transaction records thereof. Transaction records of systems where subscribers are priced and SMSC's (5) can be given as an example for these, the inventive system (1) uses these and similar information for estimating distribution and number of outbound roamers of competitor operator in foreign network (C) and countries.

In an embodiment of the invention, the distribution estimation unit (6) is positioned such that it will follow message flow of the local network (3) to domestic competitor networks (B) and follows SRI-SM messages and responses being sent by the SMSC (5). In another embodiment of the invention, the distribution estimation unit (6) follows message flow of the local network (3) with the domestic competitor networks (B) from within MT-FSM. Invoke messages.

In a further embodiment of the invention, the distribution estimation unit (6) used in the inventive system (1) may be following not only national but also all SRI- SM messages leaving the SMSC (5). The location where the distribution estimation unit (6) is positioned does not limit operation of the inventive system (1). In a yet further embodiment of the invention, the distribution estimation unit (6) can process transaction records and pricing records of SMSC's (5) without processing messages. The invention is independent of how and over which systems these information are obtained. In an embodiment of the inventive system (1), the distribution estimation unit (6) follows messaging traffic carried out for SMS's sent by subscribers of local network (3) to subscribers of the domestic competitor networks (B), by watching it actively or passively and detects distribution and number of outbound roamers of the domestic competitor networks (B). The said distribution estimation unit (6) may be watching messages passively by sending a copy of the messages to itself (6) or it may be performing watching actively by sending the messages to itself (6) or transmitting the messages by itself (6). In another embodiment of the inventive system (1), the distribution estimation unit (6) follows messaging traffic carried out for SMS's sent by subscribers of local network (3) to subscribers of the domestic competitor networks (B), by watching SMS logs and detects distribution and number of outbound roamers of the domestic competitor networks (B).

In a further embodiment of the inventive system (1), the distribution estimation unit (6) follows messaging traffic carried out for SMS's sent by subscribers of local network (3) to subscribers of the domestic competitor networks (B), by looking records of the SMSC (5) and pricing and detects distribution and number of outbound roamers of the domestic competitor networks (B).

The inventive system (1) is independent of watching method (such as active, passive) of the distribution estimation unit (6) and options of connection (such as sigtran, El) to the local network (3).

In a preferred embodiment of the inventive system (1), the mobile device (2) is mobile phone which comprises at least one SIM (Subscriber Identity Module) card. The mobile device of outbound roamer (A) is mobile phone which has feature of SMS sending/receiving and comprises at least one SIM card.

The domestic competitor networks (B) is the original network of the mobile device of outbound roamer (A) (HPLMN). In other words, the said network (B) is a network of another operator in the same country with the operator aiming to estimate distribution of outbound roamers.

The foreign network (C) is a network from where the mobile device of outbound roamer (A) gets service during their visit (VPLMN). In other words, the said network (C) is a foreign or domestic network other than HPLMN of outbound roamers.

The international carrier network (D) is a communication network which provides communication between the foreign network (C) and the local network (3) and the domestic competitor networks (B).

The HLR (F) carries out process of keeping all information of the subscriber. Within the scope of the invention, the HLR (F) is a node which keeps information of the subscriber who is the receiver of the SMS.

The VLR (E) carries out process of keeping record of subscribers who are physically present at that region, temporarily. Within the scope of the invention, the VLR (E) is a node from where the subscriber who is the receiver of the SMS gets service.

A system which enables to estimate distribution and number of outbound roamers of competitor operators real- likely (100) comprises steps of:

- realizing SMS detection (101); detecting the network from where the subscriber to whom the SMS is desired to be sent gets service at that moment, in other words the VPLMN of the subscriber, the network which has the subscriber, in other words the HPLMN of the subscriber, and the IMSI of the subscriber (102);

- checking whether the VPLMN of the subscriber is local network (3) or domestic competitor network (B) (103);

if the VPLMN is local network (3) or domestic competitor network (B), not carrying out any process (104);

if the VPLMN is not local network (3) or domestic competitor network (B), checking whether the HPLMN of the subscriber is local network (3) or domestic competitor network (B) (105);

if the HPLMN is not local network (3) or domestic competitor network

(B) , not carrying out any process (104) (in other words, returning the step 104);

- if the HPLMN is local network (3) or domestic competitor network (B), recording the IMSI, HPLMN and VPLMN identity information found into the database (7) together with the time info when the message is received (106);

by inquiring the database (7) for number of subscriber in distinct roaming in the local network (3) or the domestic network (B) at any time and for any time interval, obtaining estimated distribution and number of outbound roamers of domestic competitor network (B) in foreign network

(C) and countries (107)

(Figure 5).

The distribution estimation unit (6) provided in the inventive system (1) is adapted to carry out processes of:

- realizing SMS detection;

detecting the network from where the subscriber to whom the SMS is desired to be sent gets service at that moment, in other words the VPLMN of the subscriber, the network which has the subscriber, in other words the HPLMN of the subscriber, and the IMSI of the subscriber;

checking whether the VPLMN of the subscriber is local network (3) or domestic competitor network (B);

- if the VPLMN is local network (3) or domestic competitor network (B), not carrying out any process;

if the VPLMN is not local network (3) or domestic competitor network (B), checking whether the HPLMN of the subscriber is local network (3) or domestic competitor network (B);

- if the HPLMN is not local network (3) or domestic competitor network

(B) , not carrying out any process;

if the HPLMN is local network (3) or domestic competitor network (B), recording the IMSI, HPLMN and VPLMN identity information found into the database (7) together with the time info when the message is received; - by inquiring the database (7) for number of subscriber in distinct roaming in the local network (3) or the domestic network (B) at any time and for any time interval, obtaining estimated distribution and number of outbound roamers of domestic competitor network (B) in foreign network

(C) and countries

in order to estimate distribution and number of outbound roamers of competitor operators real-likely.

The inventive method (100) uses information of HPLMN, VPLMN and IMSI for each SMS and these information can be obtained over different systems. The invention is independent of how and over which systems these information are obtained and it cannot be limited to examples given below.

In the inventive method (100), the distribution estimation unit (6) firstly detects the SMS messaging of subscribers of the local network (3) with the subscribers of the local network (3) or the domestic competitor network (B) (101). After detection of SMS (101), the distribution estimation unit (6) detects the network from where the subscriber to whom the SMS is desired to be sent gets service at that moment, in other words the VPLMN of the subscriber, the network which has the subscriber, in other words the HPLMN of the subscriber, and the IMSI of the subscriber (102).

In an embodiment of the invention, the distribution estimation unit (6) obtains these information from records of the SMSC (5) and the pricing system. In this case, because the node (destination node) from where the SMS was sent is VLR (E) where the subscriber is actively present, the distribution estimation unit (6) obtains VPLMN info from prefix of this VLR (E) address. For example, such as finding VPLMN from info of 90532 for VLR (E) with 905329092200. Whereas the distribution estimation unit (6) obtains HPLMN info from prefix of the IMSI from where the SMS was sent. For example, such as finding HPLMN from 28601 prefix of the subscriber with IMSI of 286010123456789.

In another embodiment of the invention, the distribution estimation unit (6) obtains these information from responses of SRI-SM.ReturnResult detected by watching messages in the network actively and passively. In this case, the distribution estimation unit (6) obtains the VPLMN from the prefix of the SRI- SM.VLR address whereas obtains the HPLMN from the prefix of the SCCP.CallingGT address. While request messages are coded as "Invoke" component, successful response messages are coded as "ReturnResult" by MAP protocol. The distribution estimation unit (6) provided in the inventive system (1) creates transaction records by processing SRI-SM.ReturnResult messages. By analyzing the said records for reporting purposes, distribution of outbound roamers can be estimated over the distribution estimation unit (6). In a further embodiment of the invention, the distribution estimation unit (6) obtains these information from responses of MT-FSM. Invoke messages detected by watching messages in the network actively and passively. In this case, the distribution estimation unit (6) obtains the VPLMN from the prefix of the SCCP- CalledGT address whereas obtains the HPLMN from the prefix of the IMSI address.

Then, the distribution estimation unit (6) checks whether the VPLMN of the subscriber is local network (3) or domestic competitor network (B) (103). Because the VLR (E) address is given in the format of E.164, the distribution estimation unit (6) can obtain information of country and network from this address. If the network found is not local network (3) or domestic competitor network (B), no process carried out (104). If the network found is not local network (3) or domestic competitor network (B), the distribution estimation unit (6) checks whether the HPLMN of the subscriber is local network (3) or domestic competitor network (B) (105).

If the HPLMN is not local network (3) or domestic competitor network (B), no process carried out (104). If the HPLMN is local network (3) or domestic competitor network (B), the distribution estimation unit (6) records the IMSI, HPLMN and VPLMN identity information found into the database (7) together with the time info when the message is received (106). By this point, it is understood that this message is a response message for a SMS sent to outbound roamers of competitor operators of a local subscriber.

By inquiring the database (7) for number of subscriber in distinct roaming in the local network (3) or the domestic network (B) at any time and for any time interval, the distribution estimation unit (6) obtains information of estimated distribution and number of outbound roamers of domestic competitor network (B) in foreign network (C) and countries (107). In order to find out proportionately how many of number of subscriber in distinct roaming in target country of the competitor operator are in the target operator, the distribution estimation unit (6) uses formula of:

Share (competitor^ operator_B) =

# distinct _imsi(competitor_A, operator_B)

∑X:Alloperatorsinthetargetcountry #distinCt_imsi(competitOr_A, OperatOr_x) wherein:

competitor A symbolizes the competitor operator,

operator_B symbolizes the target operator in the target country,

operator x symbolizes all operators in the target country.

In this formula, operator_B represents the partner operator in the target country. Whereas Mistinctjmsi (competitor _A, operators) is number of distinct subscriber who is sender of SMS's having information of competitor _A as domestic competitor network (B) and operators as foreign network (C) in SMS transaction records.

Subscriber number of the competitor seen in all operators in the country of the subscriber number who are seen as reciver of SMS's in the related operator (operators) of the said competitor (competitor _A), indicates proportionately how many subscribers in this country of it are present in this operator (operators).

Distribution (Share(competitor_A,operators)) of subscribers of roaming in any country of a competitor operator above, between operators in that country is found proportionately. With the inventive system (1) and method (100), subscriber numbers of competitor operators in any country is estimated by this information obtained above and the operator's own internal information. Again, in order to find subscriber number of competitor operators in target country the inventive system (1) and method (100) builds use of the following formula:

#roamer(competitor_A, country_B)

= number _of _self _roamers_in_country * q_sms

∑X:AlloperatorsinthecountryB #diStinCt_imsi((cOTnpetitOr_A, θρ^βΤ ίθΤχ)

∑_XAiioperatorsinthecountryB #distinctJmsi(operator's_itself, operator^) With the invention, proportional information can be obtained about local subscribers (subscribers of the operator's or their competitors) in outbound roaming in any country over SMS transaction records. Over its own systems, an operator can know number of its outbound roamers in a country. These numbers can be collected for statistical purposes and also can be reported by products (for example, welcome SMS) having aim of sending information to roamers about the country and tariffs. Value of number_of_self_roamers_in_country in the above formula means that.

By obtaining proportion of their operators in a country from SMS transaction records, to number of its own and competitor operator subscribers; operator can consult the subscriber of the competitor operator in the country over number of their outbound roamers in that country.

There are exceptional circumstances which may prevent the inventive system (1) from estimating correctly. Because these are required to be sufficient sample in order that the system (1) operates successfully, the system (1) cannot operate effectively in the following conditions:

The local network (3) or the domestic competitor network (B) is a small network (3) (few number of subscriber - few number of SMS).

- While distribution and number of outbound roamers in target country are being examined, there is no enough outbound roamer in the said country (the target country is not a popular country, it is a small country (underpopulated) or it is not tourism season).

While it is particularly being tried to obtain distribution and number in a specific foreign operator, there is no enough outbound roamer in this operator (small operator (few subscriber) or it may not be tourism season).

Besides because the system (1) is based on the HLR (F) sending VLR (E) address of the subscriber at that moment to the SRI-SM message used for sending SMS in, order to operate; in cases such as SMS Home-Routing where the HLR (F) deliberatively routes false / other addresses instead of this, the system (1) cannot operate for this network (C). When "Home Routing" is used for SMS the HLR (F) always gives an address in its own network as VLR (E) address independently of the position where the subscriber is located in order to send SMS's over its own network.

SMS's between two networks are transmitted by nodes, which directly speak to each other over international and national carriers, in the networks. For this aim, in addition to connections between networks agreements (SMS Interworking Agreements) for transmission and mutual netting are made as well.

An alternative to this is SMS HUB's which make SMS agreements with operators. Thus, operators connected to HUB's can send SMS to each other without making SMS agreements with one another. SMS HUB's also provide an interface where they can use GSM MAP protocol or interface which can use SMPP (Short Message Peer-to-Peer) protocol that will be able to perform message transmission over IP (Internet Protocol), to operators.

When the SMPP protocol is used, it is not possible to learn identity of the network where the subscriber is actively present as mentioned above. When the MAP protocol is used SMS HUB's take the SMS upon itself by routing the VLR information of an address from its own address range in order to perform transmission of SMS, not the VLR information where subscribers are present.

Due to these reasons, in foreign networks (C) where transmission of SMS is performed over SMS HUB's it is not possible through the inventive system (1) to estimate number and distribution of outbound roamers of competitors.

However, because operators make agreement with networks where there are high amounts of communication traffic this estimation will be still done for foreign networks (C) which are really important. The inventive system (1) detects distribution of outbound roamers (of the operator or its competitors) by information of messaging during transmission of SMS's sent to outbound roamers abroad from the operators own networks (3). For this purpose, information in which network the roamers is present during the SMS transmission is recorded, however, roamers may get service from different local operators within the time while they are in a country. Due to the fact that records may be generated from different operators for subscribers in this way, the same subscriber may be taken into account in different operator shares.

Because the same situation will apply to other subscribers and operators as well, this situation does not prevent estimating distribution and number real-likely. By estimating distribution and number of outbound roamers of competitor operators with the inventive system (1) real- likely, it is ensured that operators will have information about their market shares.

Operators may use these information in their own internal processes and also use them to gain advantage over negotiations with foreign operators with whom they are working together.

It is possible to develop various embodiments of the inventive system (1) and method (100) for estimating distribution of outbound roamers, it cannot be limited to examples disclosed herein and it is essentially according to claims.

Claims

1. A method which enables to estimate distribution and number of outbound roamers of competitor operators real- likely (100) comprising steps of:

- realizing SMS detection (101);

detecting the network from where the subscriber to whom the SMS is desired to be sent gets service at that moment, in other words the VPLMN of the subscriber, the network which has the subscriber, in other words the HPLMN of the subscriber, and the IMSI of the subscriber (102);

checking whether the VPLMN of the subscriber is local network (3) or domestic competitor network (B) (103);

if the HPLMN is not local network (3) or domestic competitor network

if the HPLMN is local network (3) or domestic competitor network (B), recording the IMSI, HPLMN and VPLMN identity information found into the database (7) together with the time info when the message is received (106);

(C) and countries (107).

2. A method (100) according to Claim 1 , characterized in that the distribution estimation unit (6) obtains from SMSC (5) and pricing system records from where the subscriber to whom the SMS is desired to be sent gets service at that moment, in other words the VPLMN of the subscriber, the network which has the subscriber, in other words the HPLMN of the subscriber, and the IMSI of the subscriber.

3. A method (100) according to Claim 2, characterized in that because the node from where the SMS was sent is the VLR (F) where the subscriber is actively present, the distribution estimation unit (6) obtains VPLMN info from prefix of this VLR (E) address.

4. A method (100) according to Claim 2 or 3, characterized in that the distribution estimation unit (6) obtains HPLMN info from prefix of the IMSI from where the SMS was sent.

5. A method (100) according to Claim 1 , characterized in that the distribution estimation unit (6) obtains from where the subscriber to whom the SMS is desired to be sent gets service at that moment, in other words the VPLMN of the subscriber, the network which has the subscriber, in other words the HPLMN of the subscriber, and the IMSI of the subscriber; from responses of SRI- SM.ReturnResult which are detected by watching messages in the network actively and passively.

6. A method (100) according to Claim 5, characterized in that the distribution estimation unit (6) obtains VPLMN from the prefix of the SRI-SM.VLR address whereas obtains HPLMN from the prefix of the SCCP.CallingGT address.

7. A method (100) according to Claim 1 , characterized in that the distribution estimation unit (6) obtains from where the subscriber to whom the SMS is desired to be sent gets service at that moment, in other words the VPLMN of the subscriber, the network which has the subscriber, in other words the HPLMN of the subscriber, and the IMSI of the subscriber; from messages of MT-FSM. Invoke which are detected by watching messages in the network actively and passively.

8. A method (100) according to Claim 7, characterized in that the distribution estimation unit (6) obtains VPLMN from the prefix of the SCCP-CalledGT address whereas obtains HPLMN from the prefix of the IMSI address.

9. A method (100) according to Claim 7, characterized in that because VLR (E) address is given in the format of E.164, the distribution estimation unit (6) obtains information of country and network from this address.

10. A method (100) according to any of preceding claims, characterized in that at the step of, by inquiring the database (7) for number of subscriber in distinct roaming in the local network (3) or the domestic network (B) at any time and for any time interval, obtaining estimated distribution and number of outbound roamers of domestic competitor network (B) in foreign network (C) and countries (107); the distribution estimation unit (6) uses formula of:

Share (competitor _A, operator_B) =

# distinct _imsi(competitor_A, operator^)

∑X:Alloperatorsinthetargetcountry #distinCt_imsi(competitOr_A, OperatOr_x ^{^}) wherein: competitor A symbolizes the competitor operator,

operator B symbolizes the target operator in the target country,

operator x symbolizes all operators in the target country

in order to find out proportionately how many of number of subscriber in distinct roaming in target country of the competitor operator are in the target operator.

11. A system (1) which enables to estimate distribution and number of outbound roamers of competitor operators real-likely comprising at least one mobile device (2) which has feature of SMS sending/receiving and is used the local subscriber;

at least one SMSC (5) which belongs to the local network (3) and enables to send/receive SMS in the local network (3); and characterized by at least one distribution estimation unit (6) which detects distribution and number of outbound roamers of the domestic competitor network (B) using messaging traffic that is carried out for SMS's sent by local network

(3) subscribers to domestic competitor network (B) subscribers; and at least one database (7) which is a permanent storage media in which information of IMSI (International Mobile Subscriber Identity) and network are stored for SMS's that are sent by outbound roamers

12. A system (1) according to Claim 6, characterized by mobile device (2) which is mobile phone comprising at least one SIM (Subscriber Identity Module) card.

13. A system (1) according to Claim 11 or 12, characterized by distribution estimation unit (6) which follows messaging traffic carried out for SMS's sent by subscribers of local network (3) to subscribers of the domestic competitor networks (B), by watching SMS logs and detects distribution and number of outbound roamers of the domestic competitor networks (B).

14. A system (1) according to Claim 11 or 12, characterized by distribution estimation unit (6) which follows messaging traffic carried out for SMS's sent by subscribers of local network (3) to subscribers of the domestic competitor networks (B), by watching it actively or passively and detects distribution and number of outbound roamers of the domestic competitor networks (B).

15. A system (1) according to Claim 14, characterized by distribution estimation unit (6) which watches messages passively by sending a copy of the messages to itself (6) or actively sending the messages to itself (6) or transmitting the messages by itself (6).

16. A system (1) according to Claim 11 or 12, characterized by distribution estimation unit (6) which follows messaging traffic carried out for SMS's sent by subscribers of local network (3) to subscribers of the domestic competitor networks (B), by looking records of the SMSC (5) and pricing and detects distribution and number of outbound roamers of the domestic competitor networks (B).

17. A system (1) according to any of Claim 6 to 9, characterized by distribution estimation unit (6) which is is adapted to carry out processes of:

- realizing SMS detection;

if the VPLMN is local network (3) or domestic competitor network (B), not carrying out any process;

if the HPLMN is not local network (3) or domestic competitor network

(B) , not carrying out any process;

if the HPLMN is local network (3) or domestic competitor network (B), recording the IMSI, HPLMN and VPLMN identity information found into the database (7) together with the time info when the message is received; by inquiring the database (7) for number of subscriber in distinct roaming in the local network (3) or the domestic network (B) at any time and for any time interval, obtaining estimated distribution and number of outbound roamers of domestic competitor network (B) in foreign network

(C) and countries

18. A system (1) according to Claim 17, characterized by distribution estimation unit (6) which obtains from SMSC (5) and pricing system records from where the subscriber to whom the SMS is desired to be sent gets service at that moment, in other words the VPLMN of the subscriber, the network which has the subscriber, in other words the HPLMN of the subscriber, and the IMSI of the subscriber.

19. A system (1) according to Claim 18, characterized by distribution estimation unit (6), because the node from where the SMS was sent is the VLR (F) where the subscriber is actively present, which obtains VPLMN info from prefix of this VLR (E) address.

20. A system (1) according to Claim 18 or 19, characterized by distribution estimation unit (6) which obtains HPLMN info from prefix of the IMSI from where the SMS was sent.

21. A system (1) according to Claim 17, characterized by distribution estimation unit (6) which obtains from where the subscriber to whom the SMS is desired to be sent gets service at that moment, in other words the VPLMN of the subscriber, the network which has the subscriber, in other words the HPLMN of the subscriber, and the IMSI of the subscriber; from responses of SRI- SM.ReturnResult which are detected by watching messages in the network actively and passively.

22. A system (1) according to Claim 21, characterized by distribution estimation unit (6) which obtains VPLMN from the prefix of the SRI-SM.VLR address whereas obtains HPLMN from the prefix of the SCCP.CallingGT address.

23. A system (1) according to Claim 17, characterized by distribution estimation unit (6) which obtains from where the subscriber to whom the SMS is desired to be sent gets service at that moment, in other words the VPLMN of the subscriber, the network which has the subscriber, in other words the HPLMN of the subscriber, and the IMSI of the subscriber; from messages of MT-FSM. Invoke which are detected by watching messages in the network actively and passively.

24. A system (1) according to Claim 23, characterized by distribution estimation unit (6) which obtains VPLMN from the prefix of the SCCP-CalledGT address whereas obtains HPLMN from the prefix of the IMSI address.

25. A system (1) according to Claim 17, characterized by distribution estimation unit (6) which, because VLR (E) address is given in the format of E.164, obtains information of country and network from this address.

26. A system (1) according to any of Claim 17 to 25, characterized by distribution estimation unit (6) which uses formula of:

Share(competitor_A, operator_B) ⁼

# distinct _imsi competitor_A, operator_B)

competitor A symbolizes the competitor operator,

operator_B symbolizes the target operator in the target country, operator χ symbolizes all operators in the target country at the process of, by inquiring the database (7) for number of subscriber in distinct roaming in the local network (3) or the domestic network (B) at any time and for any time interval, obtaining estimated distribution and number of outbound roamers of domestic competitor network (B) in foreign network (C) and countries; in order to find out proportionately how many of number of subscriber in distinct roaming in target country of the competitor operator are in the target operator.