TWI450969B - Method for estimating termperature of iron water of a blast furnace - Google Patents

Description

Estimation method of blast furnace hot metal temperature

The disclosure relates to a method for estimating the temperature of molten iron in a blast furnace.

Blast furnace smelting is a continuous production process that reduces iron ore to pig iron. Solid raw materials such as iron ore, coke and flux are fed into the blast furnace in batches from the top loading device according to the furnace conditions, and the dough surface is maintained at a certain height. Coke and ore form an alternating layered structure within the furnace. The ore material is gradually reduced, melted into iron and slag during the descending process, collected in the hearth, and discharged from the iron mouth and the slag port respectively.

The furnace heat state of the blast furnace has a great influence on the life of the blast furnace and the quality of the molten iron. Therefore, the industry has all tried to develop the monitoring technology of the hot state of the blast furnace. In the current furnace heat monitoring technology, the furnace heat of the blast furnace generally uses the temperature of the molten iron as a reference index. However, when the temperature of the molten iron is measured by the molten iron flowing out of the blast furnace, the value can only be used as a reference for the blast furnace adjustment after the event, and the furnace heat state cannot be reacted in time.

Therefore, there is a need for an estimation method for the temperature of the blast furnace molten iron, which can early determine the temperature of the molten iron of the blast furnace, so that the blast furnace operator can take appropriate processing steps in response to changes in the blast furnace temperature.

One aspect of the present invention is to provide an estimate of the temperature of the blast furnace hot metal for the blast furnace operator to understand the change in the temperature of the molten iron early and to take appropriate measures to adjust the temperature in the blast furnace.

According to an embodiment of the present invention, the method for estimating the temperature of the blast furnace molten iron includes a modeling stage and a temperature estimation stage. In the modeling phase, historical blast conditions are first provided. Next, a plurality of historical carbon heat loss values are provided, wherein the historical carbon heat loss values correspond to the historical hot metal production time points described above, and the historical carbon heat loss values are blast furnace carbon dissolution reaction units per unit time. The heat needed. Then, a plurality of historical heat loss values are provided, wherein the historical heat loss values correspond to the historical hot metal production time points described above, and the historical heat loss values are heat energy taken by the blast furnace cooling system per unit time. The sum of the heat energy carried away from the top gas of the blast furnace. Next, a plurality of historical molten iron leakage amounts are provided, wherein the historical molten iron leakage amounts correspond to the historical hot metal production time points mentioned above, and the historical molten iron leakage amount is the blast furnace nozzle of the blast furnace per unit time. The weight of molten iron dripping from the area. Next, a plurality of historical molten iron temperature values are provided, wherein the historical molten iron temperature values are temperatures measured by the temperature detecting device at a plurality of temperature measuring time points for the molten iron in the temperature detecting region, and each temperature measurement is performed. The time point is a delay time for each historical hot metal production time point, which is the time required for molten iron to flow from the hearth zone of the blast furnace to the temperature detection zone. Then, the historical furnace heat index calculation step is repeated to calculate a plurality of historical furnace heat indexes by using the plurality of historical blast furnace data, wherein the historical furnace heat indexes correspond to the historical hot metal production time points, and the historical blast furnace materials Contains historical blast conditions, historical carbon heat loss values, historical heat loss values, and historical iron leakage. Then, a regression analysis step is performed to perform regression analysis on the historical furnace heat index and the historical hot metal temperature value by using a regression analysis algorithm to obtain a regression equation.

In the temperature estimation phase, the current blast condition parameters are first provided, wherein the current blast condition parameter corresponds to the current molten iron production time point. Next, the current carbon heat loss value is provided, wherein the current carbon heat loss value corresponds to the current hot metal production time point, and the current carbon heat loss value is the heat energy required for the blast furnace carbon dissolution reaction per unit time. Then, providing the current heat loss value, wherein the current heat loss value corresponds to the current hot metal production time point, and the current heat loss value is the heat energy taken by the blast furnace cooling system per unit time and the blast furnace The sum of the heat energy carried by the top gas. Next, the current leakage of molten iron is provided, wherein the current leakage of molten iron corresponds to the current point of production of molten iron, and the current leakage of molten iron is dripped by the blast chamber of the blast furnace per unit time. Hot metal weight. Then, the current furnace heat index calculation step is performed to calculate the current furnace heat index by using the current plurality of blast furnace data, wherein the current blast furnace data includes the current blast condition parameters, the current carbon heat loss value, the current heat loss value, and the current The amount of molten iron leakage. Next, the current furnace heat calculation step is performed to calculate the current molten iron temperature of the blast furnace using the current furnace heat index and the above regression equation.

It can be seen from the above description that the method for estimating the temperature of the blast furnace molten iron according to the embodiment of the present invention determines the molten iron temperature of the blast furnace by using the blast condition of the blast furnace, the carbon heat loss value, the heat loss value, and the amount of molten iron leakage. It has been experimentally proved that the method for estimating the temperature of the blast furnace molten iron in the embodiment of the present invention can determine the temperature of the molten iron of the blast furnace 1 to 2 hours earlier than the prior art, and therefore the method for estimating the temperature of the blast furnace molten iron according to the embodiment of the present invention The determined molten iron temperature is closer to the current molten iron temperature of the blast furnace than the prior art.

Please refer to FIG. 1 , which is a schematic flow chart of a method 100 for estimating the temperature of a blast furnace molten iron according to an embodiment of the present invention. The blast furnace hot metal temperature estimation method 100 of the present embodiment includes a modeling stage 110 and a temperature estimation stage 120. The modeling stage 110 performs regression analysis on the data parameters highly correlated with the temperature of the molten iron to obtain a regression equation representing the temperature of the molten iron (also referred to as a molten iron temperature model). The temperature estimation phase 120 calculates the current molten iron temperature of the blast furnace using the molten iron temperature regression equation obtained in the modeling stage 110.

In the modeling phase 110, a data providing step 112 is first performed to provide historical data for the blast furnace. In this embodiment, the historical data includes historical blast condition data, a plurality of historical carbon heat loss values, a plurality of historical heat loss values, a plurality of historical molten iron leaks, and a plurality of historical hot metal temperature values.

The historical blast condition data of the embodiment includes a plurality of blast condition parameters, and the blast condition parameters are one-to-one corresponding to a plurality of historical hot metal production time points, that is, the blast condition parameters are blast furnaces in these historical irons. The blast condition parameters used at the water production time point, and the blast condition parameters may be the heat energy input by the blast furnace blaster wind path area per unit time. In other embodiments of the present invention, the blast condition parameter can also be regarded as a certain value, that is, the blast condition parameters used in the blast furnace at the historical hot metal production time point described above are all considered to be the same.

The historical carbon heat loss value of this embodiment corresponds one-to-one to the historical hot metal production time point, which means that these historical carbon heat loss values are the carbon heat loss values generated by the blast furnace at these historical hot metal production time points. The carbon heat loss value herein refers to the heat energy required for the solution loss reaction of carbon per unit time.

The historical heat loss value of this embodiment corresponds one-to-one to the historical hot metal production time point, that is, these historical heat loss values are the heat loss values of the blast furnace at these historical hot metal production time points. In blast furnace smelting operations, the main heat dissipation is also related to the blast furnace cooling system and the blast furnace top gas. The blast furnace cooling system generally uses cold water to cool the outer furnace wall of the blast furnace to reduce the temperature of the blast furnace. Therefore, the blast furnace cooling system will take a lot of blast furnace heat energy. The blast furnace top gas is exhaust gas generated by blast furnace smelting and has a large amount of heat energy. When these exhaust gases leave the blast furnace from the top of the blast furnace, they will take away a lot of heat and cause heat loss in the blast furnace. Therefore, the heat loss value of the present embodiment includes the heat loss value caused by the blast furnace cooling system and the blast furnace top gas per unit time.

The historical leakage of molten iron in this embodiment corresponds one-to-one to the historical hot metal production time point, which means that these historical molten iron leakage is the molten iron leaking from the blast furnace at these historical hot metal production time points. The amount of molten iron leakage here refers to the weight of molten iron that is dropped from the blast furnace mouth area of the blast furnace molten iron per unit time. In blast furnace smelting operations, the molten iron level in the blast furnace is generally lower than the height of the blast nozzle. However, when an abnormality occurs in the blast furnace operation, the molten iron liquid level may exceed the height of the blast nozzle and drip out from the blast nozzle. The molten iron usually has a large amount of heat energy, and thus also causes heat loss of the blast furnace.

The historical hot metal temperature values of this embodiment are one-to-one correspondence to a plurality of temperature measurement time points, that is, these historical hot metal temperature values are the temperatures at which the molten iron is measured at these temperature measurement time points. In blast furnace smelting operations, it usually takes a while for the molten iron to flow from the hearth zone to the temperature detection zone (such as the taphole or taphole). Here, this time is called the delay time. In this embodiment, each historical molten iron production time point plus the delay time is the temperature measurement time point, that is, when the molten iron is produced, it takes a delay time to use the temperature detecting device to exit. The iron mouth measured the temperature of the molten iron.

After the data providing step 112, a historical furnace heat index calculation step 114 is then performed to calculate historical furnace heat index using historical blast condition data, historical carbon heat loss value, historical heat loss value, and historical iron water leakage. .

Please refer to FIG. 2, which is a schematic flow chart of the historical furnace heat index calculation step 114 according to an embodiment of the present invention. In the historical furnace heat index calculation step 114, the target data selection step 114a is first performed to obtain historical blast condition data, historical carbon heat loss value, historical heat loss value, and historical hot metal according to historical hot metal production time points. One of the leaks is selected to calculate the historical furnace heat index. For example, if a historical hot metal production time point is 10 o'clock, the corresponding historical blast condition data, historical carbon heat loss value, historical heat loss value, and historical iron water leakage amount are selected to correspond to 10 points. The target blast condition parameters, the target carbon heat loss value, the target heat loss value, and the target molten iron leakage.

Then, a calculation step 114b is performed to calculate the furnace heat index using the furnace heat index equation, wherein the furnace heat index equation is expressed as follows:

_{EH = (H t -SLC t -HL} t) / P (1)

EH is the furnace heat index, H _t is the blast condition parameter, SLC _t is the carbon heat loss value, HL _t is the dissipation heat loss value, and P is the molten iron leakage amount. Since the calculation step 114b calculates the furnace heat index by substituting the historical blast condition parameter, the historical carbon heat loss value, the historical heat loss value, and the historical iron water leakage amount into the furnace heat index equation, the calculation step 114b is calculated. The furnace heat index is the historical furnace heat index.

By repeating the target data selection step 114a and the calculation step 114b, all historical furnace heat indexes can be calculated, wherein these historical furnace heat indexes are one-to-one targeted to all historical hot metal production time points.

Returning to Figure 1, after all the historical furnace heat indicators have been calculated, a regression analysis step 116 is performed to analyze the relationship between the historical furnace heat index and the historical hot metal temperature value using the regression analysis algorithm. One of the regression equations for the hot metal temperature model. The regression analysis algorithm used in the embodiments of the present invention is a common knowledge in the art, and therefore will not be described again.

Please refer to FIG. 3, which is a flow chart showing a regression analysis step 116 according to an embodiment of the present invention. In the regression analysis step 116, a grouping step 116a is first performed to divide the historical furnace heat index and the historical hot metal temperature value into a plurality of data groups. In this embodiment, each data group includes a historical furnace heat index and a historical hot metal temperature value, and the historical furnace heat index and the historical hot metal temperature value in the same group correspond to the same historical iron. Water production time point.

As mentioned earlier, each historical hot metal temperature value corresponds to a temperature measurement time point, and each temperature measurement time point is equal to the historical hot metal production time point plus the delay time. Therefore, each historical hot metal temperature value will also correspond to a historical hot metal production time point. The grouping step 116a correlates the historical furnace heat index and the historical molten iron temperature value by a historical hot metal production time point to obtain a plurality of data groups.

Next, an analysis step 116b is performed to analyze the data sets using regression analysis calculus to obtain a regression equation for the historical furnace heat index and the historical hot metal temperature value.

Please return to Figure 1. After the modeling phase 110 is completed, a regression equation representing the temperature of the molten iron can be obtained, and in the subsequent temperature estimation phase 120, the regression equation is used to calculate the molten iron temperature. In the temperature estimation phase 120, a data providing step 122 is first performed to provide information on the current blast furnace production time point. In this embodiment, the data includes current blast condition parameters, current carbon heat loss values, current heat loss values, and current molten iron leakage. Then, the furnace heat index calculation step 124 is performed to calculate the current iron by using the furnace heat index equation (1), the current blast condition parameter, the current carbon heat loss value, the current heat loss value, and the current molten iron leakage amount. Current furnace heat index at the time of water production.

It is worth noting that if the historical blast condition parameter is regarded as a fixed value in the modeling stage 110, the current blast condition parameter is also considered as the fixed value in the temperature estimation stage 120 to calculate the current furnace heat index. .

After the furnace heat index calculation step 124, the current furnace heat calculation step 126 is followed to substitute the current furnace heat index into the regression equation obtained in the modeling stage 110 to determine the current molten iron temperature value of the blast furnace. Since the modeling stage 110 has considered the delay time of the blast furnace tapping, the current molten iron temperature value obtained by the furnace heat calculating step 126 can be regarded as the current molten iron temperature in the blast furnace, not the molten iron temperature between the tapping irons.

As apparent from the above description, the method for estimating the temperature of the molten iron in the blast furnace of the present embodiment establishes a judgment model of the temperature of the molten iron, and uses the temperature judgment model to judge the temperature of the molten iron of the blast furnace. It has been experimentally proved that the method for estimating the temperature of molten iron according to the embodiment of the present invention has a relatively high accuracy, and the temperature of the molten iron of the blast furnace can be instantly determined. Compared with the prior art, the molten iron temperature can be measured between the tappings. The estimation method of the embodiment of the present invention can determine the molten iron temperature of the blast furnace 1 to 2 hours earlier than the prior art.

Please refer to FIG. 4, which is a flow chart showing an estimation method 200 of the blast furnace hot metal temperature according to another embodiment of the present invention. The method for estimating the temperature of the blast furnace molten iron 200 is similar to the method for estimating the temperature of the molten iron, but the difference is that the method for estimating the temperature of the molten iron 200 uses another parameter to judge the temperature of the molten iron to improve the accuracy of the judgment.

In the molten iron temperature estimation method 200, a modeling phase 210 is first performed to establish a model of the molten iron temperature. In the modeling phase 210, a data providing step 212 is first performed to provide historical data for the blast furnace. The data providing step 212 is similar to the data providing step 112, but differs in that the data providing step 212 provides a plurality of historical chemical reaction heat loss values. These historical chemical reaction heat loss values correspond one-to-one to the historical hot metal production time point, and these historical chemical reaction heat losses are the heat energy required for the blast furnace chemical reaction (such as the redox reaction of the ironmaking raw material) per unit time. Next, a historical furnace heat index calculation step 214 is performed to calculate historical furnace heat using historical chemical reaction heat loss values, historical blast conditions data, historical carbon heat loss values, historical heat loss values, and historical iron water leakage. index.

Please refer to FIG. 5, which is a schematic flow chart of a historical furnace heat index calculation step 214 according to an embodiment of the present invention. In the historical furnace heat index calculation step 214, the target data selection step 214a is first performed. The target data selection step 214a is similar to the target data selection step 114a, but the difference is that the target data selection step 214a selects the corresponding target chemical reaction heat loss from the historical chemical reaction heat loss value according to the historical hot metal production time point. Value, such target data selection step 214a selects a target chemical reaction heat loss value, a target blast condition parameter, a target carbon heat loss value, a target heat loss value, and a target molten iron leakage amount, and these values correspond to The same historical hot metal production time point.

Next, step 214b is calculated. The calculation step 214b is similar to the calculation step 114b, but considering the addition of the target chemical reaction heat loss value, the furnace heat index equation is rewritten as follows:

EH=(H _t -SLC _t -H _rt -HL _t )/P (2)

EH is the furnace heat index, H _t is the blast condition parameter, SLC _t is the carbon heat loss value, HL _t is the dissipation heat loss value, H _rt is the chemical reaction heat loss value, and P is the molten iron leakage amount.

By repeating the target data selection step 214a and the calculation step 214b, all historical furnace heat indexes can be calculated.

Please return to Figure 4, after all the historical furnace heat indicators are calculated, then carry out the regression analysis step 116 to analyze the relationship between the historical furnace heat index and the historical hot metal temperature value using the regression analysis algorithm, and obtain the representative. One of the regression equations for the hot metal temperature model.

After the molten iron temperature model is established, a temperature estimation phase 220 is then performed. In the temperature estimation phase 220, a data providing step 222 is first performed. The data providing step 222 is similar to the data providing step 122, but the difference is that the data providing step 222 further provides the current chemical reaction heat loss value of the blast furnace, and the data providing step 222 provides the current chemical reaction heat loss value and the current blast. Conditional parameters, current carbon heat loss value, current heat loss value, and current molten iron leakage. Next, a furnace heat index calculation step 224 is performed to utilize the furnace heat index equation (2), the current chemical reaction heat loss value, the current blast condition parameter, the current carbon heat loss value, the current heat loss value, and the current iron water seepage. The leakage amount is used to calculate the current furnace heat index at the current point of production of molten iron. Then, the current furnace heat calculation step 226 is performed to substitute the current furnace heat index into the regression equation obtained in the modeling stage 210 to determine the current molten iron temperature value of the blast furnace.

It can be seen from the above description that the blast furnace hot metal temperature estimation method 200 of the present embodiment uses more parameters to establish a determination model of the molten iron temperature to increase the judgment accuracy of the molten iron temperature. It has been experimentally proved that the estimation method 200 of the blast furnace molten iron temperature of the present embodiment is more accurate than the estimation method of the blast furnace hot metal temperature.

While the invention has been described above in terms of several embodiments, it is not intended to limit the scope of the invention, and the invention may be practiced in various embodiments without departing from the spirit and scope of the invention. The scope of protection of the present invention is defined by the scope of the appended claims.

100. . . Hot metal temperature estimation method

110. . . Modeling phase

112. . . Data providing step

114. . . Historical furnace heat index calculation steps

114a. . . Target data selection step

114b. . . calculation steps

116. . . Regression analysis step

116a. . . Grouping step

116b. . . Analysis step

120. . . Temperature estimation stage

122. . . Data providing step

124. . . Furnace heat index calculation steps

126. . . Current furnace heat calculation steps

200. . . Hot metal temperature estimation method

210. . . Modeling phase

212. . . Data providing step

214. . . Historical furnace heat index calculation steps

214a. . . Target data selection step

214b. . . calculation steps

220. . . Temperature estimation stage

222. . . Data providing step

224. . . Furnace heat index calculation steps

226. . . Current furnace heat calculation steps

The above and other objects, features, and advantages of the present invention will become more apparent and understood.

1 is a schematic flow chart showing an estimation method of blast furnace hot metal temperature according to an embodiment of the present invention.

2 is a flow chart showing a calculation procedure of a historical furnace heat index according to an embodiment of the present invention.

Figure 3 is a flow chart showing the steps of the regression analysis according to an embodiment of the present invention.

4 is a flow chart showing a method for estimating the temperature of molten iron in a blast furnace according to another embodiment of the present invention.

FIG. 5 is a schematic flow chart showing a calculation procedure of a historical furnace heat index according to another embodiment of the present invention.

100. . . Hot metal temperature estimation method

110. . . Modeling phase

112. . . Data providing step

114. . . Historical furnace heat index calculation steps

116. . . Regression analysis step

120. . . Temperature estimation stage

122. . . Data providing step

124. . . Furnace heat index calculation steps

126. . . Current furnace heat calculation steps

Claims (10)

A method for estimating the temperature of a blast furnace molten iron, comprising: performing a modeling stage to establish a molten iron temperature model, wherein the modeling stage comprises: providing a historical blast condition data; providing a plurality of historical carbon heat loss values, The historical carbon heat loss values correspond to a plurality of historical hot metal production time points, and the historical carbon heat loss values are heat energy required for the blast furnace carbon dissolution reaction in a unit time; providing a plurality of historical dispersions a heat loss value, wherein the historical heat loss values correspond to the historical molten iron production time points, and the historical heat loss heat loss values are heat energy taken by a blast furnace cooling system in the unit time and the blast furnace The sum of the thermal energy carried by the top gas; providing a plurality of historical molten iron leakages, wherein the historical molten iron leakage corresponds to the historical hot metal production time points, and the historical iron water seepage The leakage amount is the weight of the molten iron dripped from one of the blast chambers of the blast furnace; the plurality of historical molten iron temperature values are provided, wherein the historical molten iron temperature values are a plurality of temperature detecting devices. temperature Measuring the temperature measured by the molten iron in a temperature detecting zone at a time point, and each of the temperature measuring time points is added a delay time to each of the historical molten iron production time points, the delay time being iron The time required for water to flow from the hearth zone of the blast furnace to the temperature detection zone; repeating a historical furnace heat index calculation step to calculate a plurality of historical furnace heat indexes using the plurality of historical blast furnace data, wherein the The historical furnace heat index corresponds to the historical hot metal production time points, and the historical blast furnace data includes the historical blast condition data, the historical carbon heat loss values, the historical heat loss values, and the history. The amount of molten iron leakage; and performing a regression analysis step to perform regression analysis on the historical furnace heat index and the historical hot metal temperature values by using a regression analysis algorithm to obtain a regression equation; and performing a temperature Estimating the stage to determine the current molten iron temperature of the blast furnace by using the regression equation, wherein the temperature estimating stage comprises: providing a current blast condition parameter, wherein the The blast condition parameter corresponds to a current molten iron production time point; providing a current carbon heat loss value, wherein the current carbon heat loss value corresponds to the current molten iron production time point, and the current carbon heat loss is The value is the heat energy required for the blast furnace carbon dissolution reaction in the unit time; providing a current heat loss value, wherein the current heat loss value corresponds to the current molten iron production time point, and the current heat loss value is The sum of the thermal energy carried by the blast furnace cooling system and the thermal energy carried by the top gas of the blast furnace; providing a current amount of molten iron leakage, wherein the current molten iron leakage corresponds to the At present, the molten iron production time point, and the current molten iron leakage amount is the weight of the molten iron dropped from the blast nozzle area of the blast furnace in the unit time; performing a current furnace heat index calculation step to utilize the plurality of pens Current blast furnace data to calculate a current furnace heat index, wherein the current blast furnace data includes the current blast condition parameter, the current carbon heat loss value, the current heat loss value, and the current molten iron leakage amount; A current furnace heat calculation step to calculate the current molten iron temperature of the blast furnace using the current furnace heat index and the regression equation. The method for estimating the temperature of the blast furnace molten iron according to claim 1, wherein the historical blast condition data includes a plurality of historical blast condition parameters, and the historical blast condition parameters correspond to the historical irons. Water production time point. The method for estimating the temperature of the blast furnace hot metal as described in claim 2, wherein the historical furnace heat index calculation step comprises: according to one of the historical hot metal production time points, from the historical blast condition parameters Selecting a target blast condition parameter; selecting a target carbon heat loss value from the historical carbon heat loss values according to the historical hot metal production time point; according to the historical hot metal production time points The person selects a target heat loss value from the historical heat loss values; and selects a target iron water seepage from the historical iron water leaks according to the historical hot metal production time point. Leakage; and calculating the historical furnace heat index by using the target blast condition parameter, the target carbon heat loss value, the target heat loss value, and the target molten iron leakage amount according to a furnace heat index equation And the current furnace heat index calculation step comprises calculating the current furnace heat index according to the furnace heat index equation, wherein the furnace heat index equation is expressed as follows: EH=(H _t -SLC _t -HL _t )/P Where EH is the furnace heat index H _t is the air blowing condition parameters, SLC _t carbons melting heat loss value, HL _t of dissipating heat loss value, P is the amount of hot metal leakage. The method for estimating the temperature of the blast furnace molten iron according to the first aspect of the patent application, wherein the modeling stage further comprises providing a plurality of historical chemical reaction heat loss values, wherein the historical chemical reaction heat loss values correspond to the history The time of hot metal production, and the historical chemical reaction heat loss is the heat energy required for a blast furnace chemical reaction in the unit time; the historical blast furnace data utilized in the historical furnace heat index calculation step further includes the historical chemical reactions Heat loss to calculate the historical furnace heat index; the temperature estimation stage further comprises providing a current chemical reaction heat loss value, the current chemical reaction heat loss value corresponding to the current molten iron production time point, the current chemical The heat loss value of the reaction is the heat energy required for the chemical reaction of the blast furnace in the unit time; and the current blast furnace data utilized by the current furnace heat index calculation step further includes the current heat loss value of the chemical reaction to calculate the current furnace Thermal indicator. The method for estimating the temperature of the blast furnace molten iron according to claim 4, wherein the historical furnace heat index calculation step comprises: according to one of the historical hot metal production time points, the historical blast condition parameters Selecting a target blast condition parameter; selecting a target carbon heat loss value from the historical carbon heat loss values according to the historical hot metal production time point; according to the historical hot metal production time points The person selects a target heat loss value from the historical heat loss values; and selects a target iron water seepage from the historical iron water leaks according to the historical hot metal production time point. Leakage; according to the historical hot metal production time point, the target chemical reaction heat loss value is selected from the historical chemical reaction heat loss values; and the target blast condition parameter is utilized according to a furnace heat index equation And the target carbon heat loss value, the target heat loss value, and the target molten iron leakage amount to calculate one of the historical furnace heat indexes; and the current furnace heat index calculation step includes the heat index according to the heat of the furnace equation Calculate the current furnace heat index, wherein the furnace heat index equation is expressed as follows: EH=(H _t -SLC _t -H _rt -HL _t )/P where EH is the furnace heat index and H _t is the blast condition parameter. SLC _t is the carbon heat loss value, HL _t is the heat loss value, H _rt is the chemical heat loss value, and P is the molten iron leakage. The method for estimating the temperature of a blast furnace molten iron according to claim 4, wherein the blast furnace chemical reaction comprises an oxidation reaction and a reduction reaction of the smelting raw material of the blast furnace. The method for estimating the temperature of the blast furnace molten iron according to claim 1, wherein the historical blast condition data is a historical blast condition parameter, and the historical blast condition parameter is a fixed value. The method for predicting a blast furnace pipeline flow phenomenon as described in claim 7 wherein the historical furnace heat index calculation step comprises: extracting from the historical carbon heat loss values according to one of the historical hot metal production time points. Selecting a target carbon heat loss value; selecting a target heat loss value from the historical heat loss values according to the historical hot metal production time point; according to the historical hot metal production time points The person selects a target molten iron leakage amount from the historical molten iron leakage amount; and utilizes the blast condition parameter, the target carbon heat loss value, and the target dissipation heat loss according to a furnace heat index equation The value and the target molten iron leakage amount are used to calculate one of the historical furnace heat indexes; wherein the current furnace heat index calculation step comprises calculating the current furnace heat index according to the furnace heat index equation, wherein the furnace heat is calculated index equation as _{follows: EH = (H t -SLC t} -HL t) / P where EH is the furnace heat index, H _t is the air blowing condition parameters, SLC _t carbons melting heat loss value, HL _t value for the dissipation of heat loss , P is the amount of molten iron leakage. The method for estimating the temperature of the blast furnace molten iron according to claim 1, wherein the regression analysis step comprises: performing a grouping step to divide the historical furnace heat index and the historical hot metal temperature values into plural numbers. a data group, wherein each of the data groups includes one of the historical furnace heat indicators and one of the historical hot metal temperature values, and the historical heat index of the historical furnace corresponds to the history At one of the hot metal production time points, one of the historical hot metal temperature values corresponds to one of the temperature measurement time points, and the one of the temperature measurement time points is the historical hot metal production time point. The latter is added to the delay time; and the regression analysis algorithm is used to perform regression analysis on the data groups to obtain the regression equation. The method for estimating the temperature of the blast furnace molten iron according to claim 1, wherein the historical blast condition data is input heat energy of the blast chamber wind diameter region of the blast furnace in the unit time.