TWI284865B - Real-time mobile debris-flow disaster prevention and alert system - Google Patents

Abstract

This invention discloses a real-time mobile debris-flow disaster prevention and alert (RMD2PA) system. The RMD2 PA system is a 3-tier structure composed of a mobile user terminal system, a multimedia application server, and an expert decision system. A user at the mobile user terminal system can use a portable device to bi-directionally transmit the multimedia information of the debris-flow at a disaster area via GSM/GPRS personal mobile communication network. The system provides several functions such as an AI proxy provided by a multimedia application server used to pre-process and examine data to save the bandwidth of a wireless network so as to fulfill the customization and personalization requirement, an analysis engine used to simulate a debris-flow path via coordinates and the comparison of images, visual reality used to provide relative landform simulation service facilitating an Internet user to connect RMD2PA system to access relative debris-flow information, and a Web and WAP service using Web and WAP functions to enter an interactive web-page to access relative information, so as to sort mass multimedia information to save the time used to access data in a post-terminal database. Moreover, an expert decision strategy server at the post-terminal Internet is introduced to numerically analyze and construct the simulated model and the mechanism of debris-flow. The system can use the information techniques of a global positioning system (GPS), a geographic information system (GIS), and a remote sensing (RS) to determine the value of the parameter of debris-flow disaster factors that are calculated by regression analysis, so as to achieve precise disaster prevention and salvage guiding functions.

Description

-^84865 IX. INSTRUCTIONS: [Technical field of invention] The present invention is a kind of earth-rock disaster and the Wei line, especially when integrating multimedia p (4) geography, satellite system, remote sensing, wireless Separate agreements, intelligent agents, virtual reality, escape routes and reasoning materials, and applied to the pre-planning of earth-rock disasters, the fires can be transmitted instantly and effectively, assisting the victims to evacuate dangerous areas and save people's lives. Property security. [Prior Art] Among the natural X harms mentioned, 'the occurrence of geological factors, commonly known as "soil disasters", including surface soil flushing, collapse 'slip, earth and rock flow, river wash and accumulation. The occurrence and scale of its occurrence are not only related to rainfall intensity and rainfall, but also to the slopes of the steep λ and the geologically fragile areas. In addition, artificial development of pastes, such as logging, planting, road opening, mining, and other related development activities, coupled with poor soil and water conservation facilities, can easily induce soil sand disasters on slopes. Taiwan's sloping land, especially at medium and high altitudes, has abundant rainfall, steep terrain and fragile geology. Therefore, disasters such as collapse and ground slip are frequent. If it is the uniform side of the earth's surface, it should be a natural appearance. However, its mother and mother are improperly developed due to human beings or poor soil and water conservation facilities, which induces disasters and intensifies the disaster. The occurrence of earth-rock disasters is caused by the mixture of geological materials such as mud, sand, gravel and boulders and water, and the flow caused by gravity. Its occurrence includes three elements: (1) sufficient water in the '(2) sufficient earthwork; and (3) effective riverbed slope. Sufficient water is usually derived from rainfall intensity and accumulated rainfall, and the effective riverbed slope varies from place to place; the earth-rock flow in Taiwan, .1284865, the bed thickness of 1G, and the catchment area of 1Q hectare are more green. The catchment area is the speed and flow rate of the water in the moon; the towel, the foot touches the soil, refers to the amount of sediment in the upper reaches of the river, and the accumulation of river red swims is the age of silk. The main source of the soil remains in the valley of the river. The main source of the soil is the collapse of the upstream slope of the river or the slippage of the ground and the accumulation in the valley. Collapse and slippage refers to the phenomenon that the rock layer of the river valley slope collapses or falls due to gravity plus gas-turning (such as: heavy rain). The occurrence of earth and rock flow, in addition to the factors of rainfall, has a considerable relationship with the geological environment. In Taiwan, which is in a very uneasy environment, high mountains and high waters, coupled with frequent geological activities, make natural geological disasters such as collapse and falling rocks common. Therefore, there is no shortage of earthwork required for earth-rock flow disasters, which is one of the reasons for the frequent earth-rock disasters in Taiwan. In recent years, the disasters of earth-rock disasters in Taiwan have been very serious. Often, a heavy rain has caused serious damage to people’s lives and property, and the relevant units have invested heavily in establishing a stone fire prevention and notification system. When the earth-rock flow disaster occurs, the goal of reducing the loss of life and property of the people can be achieved by the advance notice. The 18 earth-rock flow monitoring systems set up before 1G, because of the high failure rate and the accuracy rate of less than 30%, can only be used as a reference value for research. However, when it happens, the communication lines in the earth-rock disaster area are often broken. Effectively report and alert the disaster. [Summary of the Invention] "Technical Issues to be Solved" In addition, due to the dense population of Taiwan, the disaster area is not limited to remote areas. For example, the hunter-like hurricane of gg has caused major disasters such as floods and landslides in the large residential areas on the top of the mountain. Minto-1284865 is also the same, so in some areas, such as densely populated hillside residential areas and some mountain areas with some communication infrastructure (such as most of the mountainous areas in Nantou County), how to use the simplest communication and Information equipment (such as PDA plus mobile phone), to achieve effective real-time (Real-Time) disaster multimedia information (including materials, sound and photos) transmission and disaster decision-making and prevention, has been selected by the National Science Council National Disaster Prevention Plan One of the important topics. Therefore, when the earth-rock flow really occurs, the following situations will be encountered: (1) The information communication in the disaster area is not easy and chaotic, and the information transmission function is lost. As a result, the disaster situation cannot be immediately reported to the disaster prevention centers, and the disaster relief time is delayed. The effectiveness of the system has caused serious damage in the disaster area. (ii) Internet-based decision support systems, or early warning systems that require a desktop or laptop computer to use a wired network to make connections and input data. Once the wired network has problems or is not operating properly, it cannot be used. . Moreover, in the disaster area, the site information is collected, and the computer needs to be input in the computer or in a specific place. The input data cannot be instantaneously generated, and the warning is not immediately notified. (iii) The use of expensive satellite phones for the transmission of disaster relief messages is often due to user negligence and limited functionality of satellite phones, and is not able to perform the expected function. For example, satellite phone users in the disaster area accidentally turn off the satellite phone, and the disaster prevention and notification can not promptly notify the police in advance, and the quality of expensive satellite phone communication is often poor (especially when the disaster occurs in bad weather), in addition to satellite phones. The call function is only available, so it is not possible to provide first-hand data on the disaster area required by the Disaster Prevention and Notification Center. (iv) Explain that an effective earth-rock flow decision-making system requires immediate on-site information, and decision-making assessment and reasoning mechanisms are used to properly determine the disaster situation and to make prompt and effective disaster prevention measures. (v) The affected people do not know where to evacuate, and the disaster-stricken people's escape direction makes the disaster more difficult. Therefore, it is necessary to provide information on how quickly people in the disaster area can obtain escape information, such as appropriate escape routes. 1284865 Therefore, there is no set of earth-rock flow decision-making information system that can effectively integrate the wireless mobile communication and disaster database. Therefore, how to establish an effective earth-rock disaster prevention and notification system will be the biggest issue. "Effects on Prior Art" In view of the shortcomings of other earth-rock disaster prevention and notification systems in the above-mentioned background of the invention, the present invention is composed of an action-based financial system, a multimedia application copper server and an expert decision-making system, wherein the action The user of the user system can use the handheld device to carry out the information transmission of the double-media media in the disaster area via the GSM/GPRS personal mobile X network, and provide the intelligent agent through the multimedia application servo. Previous processing and filtering to save wireless network bandwidth and achieve customization and personalization), inference engine (inferred geophysical trend path via coordinate and image comparison), virtual reality (related terrain simulation service, let Internet users connect 1^1021) eight systems to access the soil; 5 her job news), Web services and WAP services (paste Web and WAp functions into interactive web access related information) and other functions, to achieve separation A huge amount of multimedia information to save time in the back-end data inventory, the number of experts in the Internet back-end - expert decision server utilization The analysis method establishes the inferred model and mechanism of the earth-rock flow, and uses the global satellite positioning system (Gps), geographic information system (GIS) and remote sensing (RS) information technology to find out the parameters of the earth-rock disaster factor for regression analysis and verification (4). In order to achieve the functions of the Meteorological Disaster Relief System and the Disaster Relief Guidelines, the inventions proposed by the above system provide more immediate and more accurate services in addition to solving the problems of the prior art, and are designed with high scalability and mobile multi-ship functions. The purpose of the invention is to integrate multi-ship (four) audio and video, geographic information system, satellite (four) system, remote secret measurement, wireless packetization protocol, intelligent agent, virtual reality, escape path and inference engine, etc., and applied to soil 1284865 - stone The prevention and notification of disasters will enable disasters in the disaster areas to be transmitted immediately and effectively, and assist the victims to evacuate dangerous areas and rescue people's lives and property. [Embodiment] As shown in the figure - in conjunction with the second figure, a three-level structure (3-tier) is adopted for the action-based earth-rock disaster prevention and notification system. The first layer is the actor's use system. You can use a variety of terminal devices to access remote disaster prevention (10) data, including Smart Phone, PC (Pe Cong, C), Notebook (10) (4), Tablet PC (Tablet PC) And the personal digital assistant (p (10) such as the system (8) gamma, ship) access to the second layer of multimedia application ship 2 〇 and the expert decision system 3 相关 related information. The multimedia application server 20 provides a smart information agent, a multimedia virtual reality and an age ship. The expert decision-making secret wealth has a smart inference engine, and the inference of the disaster occurrence silk and other dangers is so designed to make the system more Practical and effective, the following describes each part of the design. 1. The design of the mobile user system is as follows: the functions provided by the I mobile user include the basic coordinate service rViCe), the customized service 12 (Customized Service), the cross & network 13 , instant multimedia transmission η and inference primers, the following respectively discuss the details of the relevant coordinates service · · screaming the stalker's terminal to connect to the mobile Internet, log in and use the system, and automatically through GPS Location in the region. The coordinates of f / ^ 巧巧 use GSM / GPRS mobile phones to pass back to the post-decision decision-making database through the Big Brother mobile communication network for regional information analysis. This function stores each user's location, length: for the basic coordinate service, to understand the location information of each user's local area, and then through the back-end database for decision analysis, a form will be collected, will g The cable user lists and knows if the user is in a hazardous area. 1284865 (2) Customized service: When the system has the user's location information and provides customizedized services, including different screens depending on the user equipment, whether there are earth-rock disasters and news downloads in the area. Information, so that users do not have to go through the cumbersome 'steps to get the relevant information. (3) Cross-heterogeneous networks: data transmission across heterogeneous networks. Because users are in different networks, the system is designed to allow end devices or mobile devices to be connected to the global communication network.

System for Mobi le Communications, GSM), General Packet Radio Service (GPRS), wired network, IEEE802. llx wireless network and other environments for integration. (4) Instant multimedia transmission: The instant multimedia transmission part includes text, picture and video and audio. The user can use the general text to conduct online conversation and the message group. Multicast is delivered to all members of the group in the same area. In addition, the camera on the PDA can be used to capture the first scene of the disaster area φ, and then immediately transmitted back to the back end for professional research, or use the function of video transmission to transmit the live video to the back-end expert decision system. Professionals to facilitate the research and judgment of the first-hand disaster. (5) Inference guidance: If the mobile communication network is disconnected or unable to connect to the back-end expert decision-making system, the risk factors of the earth-rock disaster area extracted by the data exploration institute are also provided on the handheld equipment, and the reasoning mechanism is constructed to estimate the current situation. Second, the multimedia application server design As shown in the fourth figure, the multimedia application server located at the front end of the Internet mainly provides multimedia related services, including a smart agent 21, a virtual reality 22, a Web service 23, WAp service 24 and inference engine and other functions. Its purpose is to separate huge amounts of multimedia information to save time in the back-end data inventory. (1) Intelligent Agent (HP) Agents can perform the task of silk, search, classification, processing or notification of data, and quickly and reliably let users grasp the most instant information. As shown in the fifth figure, the smart code designed by the secret agent 21 includes (1) user interface agent batch (10) agent Agent · UIA), (2) 1284865 'monitoring agent 213 (Monitor Agent), (3) rainfall information agent 214 (Rainfall) Agent), • (4) News Agent 215 (News Agent), (5) Emergency Notification Agent 2i6 (Alert

Agent), (6) pre-download agent 217 (Pre-l〇ad Agent), (7) Coordination Agent 218 (Collaboration Agent, CA) and (8) Layer Information Agent 219 (Plate

Information Agent (PIA) and other eight, its work and operation process is as follows: (1) User interface agent: to distinguish which type of device is used by the client, when the user is connected to the line, 'will give appropriate operation Interface and content; _ (2) Monitoring agent: monitor the age of each side-side client, if someone has a new link to inform the user interface agent, give customized information (Cust〇mized); (3) Rain Information Agent: Monitoring The information of the rain station is available to all users at any time; (4) News information agency: news information on the Internet (such as γΑ_奇摩-新闻) automatically grabs the earth and stone flow related (4), the end of the system to see the recent emergency (5) Emergency notification agent: If a certain area is inferred to have a landslide event, it will be returned to all or specific users located in the county area, and the relevant data and situation will be notified; (6) Pre-download agent · User can be located Area to download rainfall or news related information 'If there is an update, the agent will automatically transfer the new data. (7) The agent and the bribe are used to collect the Wei, avoiding the _ information in (5) the server and the client repeatedly access; () SU Belle agent · assist in the layer information download, and give different layers according to their equipment The construction of 4', set of far-including contour maps, street maps, satellite aerial photographs or stereoscopic topographic maps to assist users in obtaining appropriate multimedia information.

11 1284865 In the multimedia application server, the flowchart of the cooperation of the eight intelligent agents is shown in the sixth figure, and the detailed steps are as follows: (1) when the user 210 connects to the smart agent through the network communication system 211 (1) In the past, through the smart agent 21, the amount of information agent 214 and the paste information agent 215 grab the original file of the web page from the rain information station and the new coffee 211, and make a self-made through a predefined data dictionary (Data Dictionary). The filter removes related tags such as HTML, ASP, or JavaScript that are not related to the content of this article, and adds time stamps (7) fat stamps, regions, titles (Titles), global resource positioning||(ijnifQnn Res〇urce

The Locator, URL) and the content-same are determined by the coordinating agent 218 to determine whether it is a repeating message. (2) When the coordination agent 218 obtains the information collected by the rain information agent 214 and the news information agent 215, it determines whether the information is repeated based on the obtained time stamp, region, title, and URL. If the information is not repeated, the message is sent to the emergency notification agent 216 to determine whether there is a keyword such as a landslide or a rainy day. (3) If the emergency notification agent 216 finds that there are keywords such as landslides or heavy rain in the news article, it will send a warning notice to the area while storing, and if not, simply store it in the database. (4) When the user 210 logs into the system, the monitoring agent 213 performs registration of the user information, and obtains the GPS positioning value and the user device information of the user, and transfers the user e and prepares the message. The user interface agent 212 is given customized usage information. (5) The final user interface agent 212 forwards the relevant parameters to the layer information agent 219 and 12 1284865 ' pre-download agent 217 for downloading the information. (1) Location-aware Path Predict Method (LP2M) The geographic information system used in this system is a Raster map. The vector is presented in a vector (Vector) data integration (stacking) manner. . In the topographic map processing, the net format cutting method is first used. Each type of topographic layer is divided into squares with certain rules according to a certain proportion of latitude and longitude values, and each of the squares is built in the geographic information database. The relationship between the spatial data and the Attribute Data is as follows. The spatial data and attribute data are as shown in the seventh and eighth figures, and the user is automatically converted and graphed by the system. The attribute data owned by the block can be queried in the space graphic area, and the spatial graphic area of the same or similar attribute condition can be queried by an attribute data condition. After the mesh terrain graphics cutting method, when the user moves the location or calls an area, simply download the topographic map of the area or surrounding area. In addition, when the user is moving, there is no need to reload an entire topographic map, and only the grid of the changed part is loaded, so that the amount of network data transmission can be effectively reduced, and the delay of data display can be reduced. Delay time 〇 Because the user uses the handheld device because the display screen is small, the Layer Information Agent (piA) is designed to reduce the transmission traffic. The terrain information map is downloaded to facilitate the graphics. Show and reduce the transmission of the network. In the system, if the attributes of each block are simply not able to accurately target the special financial information and geographic information, the RMD2PA also has the attributes of some coordinates in the GIS designed by the system. 1284865 data, the system can draw a vector-like icon through the attribute data of its coordinates. In addition, the system adopts the method of superimposing the vector data and the network format data to display geographic information, and the composition structure is constructed by the network format topographic map, and the hiding points and images thereon are using vector formula. The data is stacked. In the topographic map call, the layer information agent (piate Inf〇rmati〇n eight coffee, piA) path prediCt Method, lp2m) to smooth the layer pre-download work. Since each terrain square has a fixed number of specifications, when the user wants to query the topographic map of a specific area, the system's Layer Information Agent (PIA) will automatically display the user according to the user. Relevant information such as layer category and coordinate position can be accurately matched by the graphics interpolation method and the graphic extrapolation method, and the local area and the surrounding area can be accurately called, and all the topographic map blocks will be automatically combined. The complete topographic map is described as follows: The system uses the mesh format cutting method for terrain cutting, and each block has a fixed size. Therefore, the user only needs to obtain a user to query a certain area. To query the coordinates of the area _, you can calculate which square the location is located in, and analyze which topographic map images should be downloaded. Taking the RMD2PA system as an example, each area of the system has a length and width of 5 points each according to its longitude and latitude. In addition, the graphic file name of each block is named according to the latitude and longitude of the block, and the percentage "is 12 degrees and 36 degrees latitude 22 degrees. 36 points · gif" or "after 12 degrees 41 latitude 22 degrees % points. gif" and other reuse formula (int ((longitude -1) / spacing) * spacing) + i, you can get the user located in which area Block, consider the area as the center point, and then calculate which topographic maps should be placed around. The extrapolation method is shown in the ninth figure. The center point in the figure is the user's positioning position, and the secret block is the center 1284865 block'. Then the surrounding 8 squares are calculated, and then taken out and integrated into - Zhang Complete topographic map. However, since the latitude and longitude is 60 decimal, every six tenths is one degree, so the piA needs to check again to ensure that the data is correct. The PIA does not need to search through the data in the database. Comparison, this can make the reaction of the mystery _ more efficient than the cut method. In the geographic information system that is integrated with the Internet, the key issue is the scale of the network transmission data, most of the geographic information secrets, #制者移麟- outside the scope or just beginning (four) At the same time, it is necessary to carry a huge amount of ground-breaking shadows. Although the fresh, unified _ mesh format cutting solves the problem of single-over-large terrain, but if the computing power _ handheld devices and wireless communication network limited bandwidth, download Topographic maps are still quite time consuming, so delays are inevitable. Therefore, the system design utilizes the path prediction method (L〇cati〇n-aware) designed by velocity (Vel〇city, cel and acceleration (Acceleration, a)).

Predict Me1:hod, LP2M) is used to predict the travel path of the user. When the system predicts the area under the user's path, the topographic map of the area is pre-downloaded to the memory device that the user has not prepared. Therefore, when the member actually enters the area, the topographic map of the area can be immediately called up, so that the transmission delay (Delay) can be avoided. The prediction formula of the path prediction method is as follows:

At = t1 - t2 (1) v = ( p(t) - p(f )) / At ... (2) a = Λν / At ... (3) 15 1284865 User path deletion main analysis elements include The user's current location, the previous time position _,) and the interval time ^ and other three elements. When the system obtains the user's current position _ and the previous time point position ,, the average speed power is used to find out the average average f of the user's current path, and the difference between the average speeds of the two time points is used. That is, the amount of change in the flat speed at two time points ^ to obtain the average acceleration a. Since the acceleration has a physical quantity of magnitude and direction, the change of the user's path is closely related to the amount of acceleration change, and thus it can be known that we can use this property to perform the user path path steel. Therefore, the present invention will be divided into the following two items according to the relationship between the average acceleration degree 3 and the path mode: (1) When the average speed V is V', it indicates that the member path is positively traveling, and can be further divided into: (i) Average acceleration a = 0 This means that the average speed has not changed during the (4) segment time, that is, (4), at this time ^, during this time, the equal speed motion is performed, so we can predict that the user will be in a short time. Moving in the same direction, the topographic map image of the next destination can be downloaded in advance. (ii) Average acceleration a > 0. This means that during the period of (4), there is acceleration in the user, and the user should advance toward the same side. 'But the average speed is faster, indicating that the user will reach the next faster. For the destination block, it is necessary to pre-download the topographic map of the next destination in advance. (iii) The average acceleration a < 0 indicates the tendency of the user's speed to slowly slow down, which means that the user may be about to stop, or to turn to the 'thus' image of the silk lamp, or the topographic map of the financial direction. (2) When the average speed v is, it means that the path is reversed, and the average acceleration of 1.2844865 degrees can be divided into three cases, but the result of the condition will be ^v, and vice versa, the average acceleration a &gt Bu indicates that the steering will be stopped or turned, and if the average acceleration a < 〇 then the situation has the opposite direction of acceleration. As shown in the tenth figure, at present, the center position of the viewer is MapP, and when the user moves from price to ρ(ί,), LP2M predicts the user's next most likely center position. Therefore, _ pre-downloads the map, Map3, and Map4 blocks to the gamma equipment towel. When the user moves to the Map Bu, the topographic map of the block can be called up immediately, allowing the user to reduce the waiting time for the topographic map to be downloaded. The determination of the traveling direction and the lower layer can be judged by the traveling positioning points L ϋ, (1) and & if the upper and lower left and right wires indicate that the user's traveling direction is a straight line, and the four-dimensional diagram of the figure indicates that the traveling direction is oblique Thus, the number of required lower patches can be determined. Figure 11 shows that three pictures need to be downloaded in advance for straight walking, and five pictures are required to be downloaded in advance for the diagonal walking. Figures 2 and 3, 4, 5 on the second and fourth pictures. Indicates the order in which the downloads are made, and the dashed box indicates the image displayed on the screen. (III) Virtual Reality Design Virtual Reality (VR) is designed to allow users who are in the field to explore, or experts located in the distance to use this Wei to view the relevant topographic maps and virtual reality disaster simulations of each area. Show. Since the code generated by the ancestor language is small, it is advantageous to transmit related files and simulations on GpRs. For larger or more accurate terrain, computing green maps still consumes a lot of system resources. So when using a tablet to open a large chart, the processing time is relatively long, and it can't be like on the PC side. The fast point of view, sometimes even the case of delayed display. In addition, the computer screen display of the board is worse than the desktop computer. 17.1284865 Based on the above reasons, the system uses the ERDAS IMAGINE8.5 software to cut the three-dimensional topographic map of Taiwan into several blocks according to the latitude and longitude. Cut out the more common occurrences of earth and rock flow and the areas with high probability of occurrence. At the same time, the software also increases the topographic resolution and the number of cells of each block by using the software. Only the latitude and longitude of each block must be recorded in the back-end database, so the front-end tablet user obtains the local latitude and longitude by using GPS. When you want to view the area coordinates, the system will find out which area the area is located in, and directly call out the VR terrain file of the block, so the graphics are smaller and the cut graphics are improved. Provides high resolution and less distortion of the stereoscopic terrain for the user's reference, so it can show better results and performance on the PDA. (4) Web service design

The Web-based service provides users with a terminal device to connect to the multimedia application server. The provided information is handled by the device. The smart agent automatically adjusts its paste to transmit data to the user. In addition, it provides a large number of services. Earth and stone flow riding and information for users to query and participate

test. If the user roams to an area where there is no GPRS base station service, the WAP service of the system can be used. The Mp/WEB application is also provided in the multimedia application server, and the conference content is accessed via the interactive web page (ASP) technology and the wireless annotation language (fox). Due to the function and bandwidth limitation of the mobile phone, only the image format of wb can be received and interpreted. Therefore, in this system, the micro H (Mi(10)-bnDwser) of the mobile phone is used for instant transmission and reception of the shirt.

The web server also provides a case-by-case engine that allows the system to input relevant information from the terminal device for the estimation of the earth-rock flow case. Therefore, the latter is not required—it is intended for use by the system, and other users can use it together. 1284865 3. The expert decision-making system is located in the expert decision-making system at the back end of the Internet. The main work is the architecture-related reasoning engine. Here, the case-based reasoning engine is designed to build the prediction model of the earth-rock flow, and the model is obtained after verification and comparison. In the mobile land flow real-time forecasting system, it provides a reference for mobile users to make immediate decision-making before the disaster. _ (1) The selection of the risk factor for earth-rock flow is based on the effective catchment area of 15 degrees or more in Nantou County in the Republic of China in 1989. The 8 条 土 土 土 土 , , , , , , , , , , , , 181 181 181 181 181 181 181 181 181 181 181 181 181 Data on earth-rock disasters on the potential streams are used as research samples. The selection of the risk factor of earth-rock flow is the most important---the ring of the earth-rock festival. The correct-sub-selection can make the planning and analysis of the paste mode reach the effect of fiber, and then accurately compensate for the occurrence of earth-rock disaster. Three important conditions for the occurrence of earth-rock flow: (1) adequate water supply, (2) sufficient bedbed deposits and material sources, and (3) foot-slope conditions. The risk factors selected by the present invention are classified into non-immediate factors and immediate factors: (1) Non-immediacy factors: risk factors derived from long-term environmental changes in a disaster environment, which need to be identified by long-term monitoring. Change situation. Non-immediacy factors include (1) effective catchment area, (1) effective pond length, (5) effective river bed slope, and (iv) lithology in the effective catchment area. (2) Immediateness factor: It is a crisis for the immediate change of disasters in Weizhong, including (1) collapse area, (u) effective accumulated rainfall, (out) effective rainfall intensity and (iv) planting index, etc. 1284865 Immediateity factor. In addition to the New_face view is full of uncertainty, effective accumulation and effective demotion, coffee, (four) tender _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ For the calculation of the effective area _, the present invention is a satellite __ (Remote S嶋ng, RS) technology, in the near-infrared light band (10) and the vegetative index (career), after the reflection of the earth's surface, the _ ray generation effective fresh area _ The collapse area, therefore, depends on the average IR or NDVI value in the water zone, indicating that the average collapse area in the effective catchment area is large. As shown in the figure below, the boundary between the planting and the collapsed bare ground can be obtained after the conversion and classification of the SP〇T image of the 20-nannan disaster area. (1) The risk factor of the earth-rock flow risk is taken as the important factor of the success or failure of the regression model. The value of the negative factor change will become the "noise," and even the regression in the regression data. The results of the analysis are inconsistent with the facts, resulting in a decrease in the credibility of the regression model. Therefore, the present invention uses (4) the risk factor of the stone flow in the milk magnetic charge to establish a database of risk factors for the Nana soil flow. The eight methods for extracting dangerous factors of earth-rock flow are described as follows: (1) Lions of non-immediate factors · The non-immediate factors selected by the present invention include effective catchment area, effective bed length, effective riverbed slope and effective set Four factors, such as lithology in the water zone, are important environmental factors that are difficult to change in natural disaster environments. They must be calculated through long-term observations and complex terrain calculations in order to extract the risk factors of soil and rock flow. The invention applies GIS and RS information technology, and sets the catchment area of 15 degrees or more to the water level of 20.1284865.-·effective water collecting area, Figure 15 For the range of effective catchment area that was taken out, the first 17 sets of the first set of butterflies, the surface area _ water area, the length of the river bed, the Xi Gudu and the rock _ _ _ sub-information, as the basis for numerical regression analysis. (ω (four) factor: The selected four (4) sexual traits contain effective accumulated rainfall, effective rainfall intensity, effective catchment area, "infrared light (10) average financial effect set, shouting index (_) average, etc., among them Effective cumulative rainfall (face) and effective rainfall intensity # Uhr/咖〉' Instantly obtain rainfall real-time information from environmental awareness agents in the _F)2 system. (III) Earth-rock flow prediction model theory and architecture design The earth-rock flow proposed by the present invention The disaster surface model is constructed by using multiple linear regression, multivariate instability index method, 贞 neural network and other analytical methods. The side research theory and research architecture design are described as follows: (1) Multiple linear regression analysis in multiple linearity In the regression method, we set the expected value of the variable k, which is the linear function of the self-variable yang, 2, ..., magic, and adjust the error precision according to the independent error variable ,, so the multivariate linear model assumes:

Yl = B. + BlXll + B2X12 + ··· + BkXlk + ε J 21 (S ) 1284865 Ϊ2 = Bo + Β1Χ21 + Β2Χ22 i ··· + BkX2k +£2 φ Φ 0

Yn = Bo ~l· BlXnl + B2Xn2 + - + BkXnk +£n The matrix representation is as follows: 1 work 11 Χ12 Λ - Λ' V a 1 X21 ^22 八Xu A ^2 Μ Μ Μ Μ μ Μ + Μ person -1 Ή"2 Λ Λ. The conversion of the normal equations is obtained by least squares and partial differentiation:

Nb〇+biExi+b2Ix2+ ... +bkIxk=IY boZxi+biExi2 +b2Exi.X2+ ... ihZxi^Xk=Zxi^Y

b〇Exk+biExi^xk+b2Ex2^xki ··· +bkExk2=Exk^Y Therefore, we can see from the above equation that the coefficient matrix in the above normalized equations is a symmetric matrix, so that j represents the coefficient matrix, and B is the right end. The constant term matrix, the matrix equation is as follows: gossip ~ λ Έχι T, xrx2^Ydx1-xk Μ Μ μ -1 1 h ^21 Λ Μ Μ Xjk ~Λ xnk Ί χπ Χ12 Xlk 1 Χ21 Χ22 X2k Μ Μ Μ 1 Λ ' Xf · χ s 22 1284865 β 1Γ Σ^

Γ /X

A

X

X 7 ^ Λ 2 λλ^ 2 ΑΛ Λ Therefore, the matrix type of the normalized equation is the formula (4)

(^/*^)b=x/T Ab=B . (4) ”b=[b°, bl, ..., w are unknowns of the normal equation. Oc′.x exists due to the full rank of the coefficient matrix; The inverse matrix, so the coefficient & can be obtained by the formula (4): b-Cx^x) xf .γ . (5) Then the formula (5) can be derived to obtain the multivariate linear model as the following formula (6) · Y = b〇+ blXl + b2X2 + bsX3 i - + bkXk ... (6) (2) Multivariate instability index analysis multivariate restless succession, paste wheel coffee _ variability, and estimation of earth ashi The money version has its influence 23 1284865. The ratio is widely distributed to the scores of different weights of each factor, and then the mathematical model of statistical appraisal with high applicability is derived, and the instability index of the classification of the coffee category is calculated, among which the relative rank score of λ (4) The value, the cumulative value of the thinner (4) indicates the potential probability of occurrence of the earth-rock flow in Vietnam, and vice versa, the lower the potential probability occurs. From the definition as the formula (?):

Drd>d>d>^d:n ··· (7) Λ is a factor of potential risk classification instability index spring di,...,ά is the score value of each variation factor, milk,..., The weighting factor of the influence factor The calculation method of the graded grade score value of each variation factor is defined as the following formula (8): a{Xt - X \ =(^^+7 (8) a is a specific constant value A is the influence factor of each variation The scores are especially the percentages of the various factors of the earth-rock flow. I and I are respectively the maximum and minimum values. The calculation method of the coefficient of variation of each factor-factor is defined as follows (9): 24 1284865 χ xI〇0% ... (9) σ is the coefficient of variation and the standard deviation are the coefficient of variation of the average percentage of damage of each factor divided by the sum of the coefficients of variation of all factors, that is, the weight value of the ^^ straight, defined as equation (10): 10) υ/+υ2+Λ +υ„ is the effective weight value of the factor i is the coefficient of variation of each factor. (3) Inverted-transfer-like neural network analysis> The neural network is based on the brain and nervous system. Research-inspired information processing technology that takes advantage of system output and input It is expected to establish a system model. This kind of neural network system model can be used for estimation, prediction, decision making, diagnosis and other applications. Therefore, from a broad perspective, neural network is also a special type of "non-linear statistical technology". The present invention uses the most representative and most commonly used inverse transfer neural network algorithm to analyze the potential danger of soil flow. The real method is a typical supervised learning network (Supervised Learning Network), which mainly learns between input and output. The internal mapping rule, which is shown by each network processing unit connection weighting table 25 1284865. Therefore, in the future, there is a new case where the output value can be inferred from the input value or the self-variable value, so the present invention _Off-transfer-like neural algorithm predicts the potential of the landslide flow ^ danger degree and the risk probability of occurrence of the landslide. (4) Data pre-processing analysis of each impact factor data in the back of the gods _ Lu New Zealand, before the data Pre-processing, which makes the input of the financial reliance map to __. Because the supervisor picks up the input type of the gods, the input of the human beings accepts the single-infrared acceptance (four) size value However, if the Wei-Chengshe, which is accepted by the single-processing unit, will make the small crane Weizhi appear out of the way, causing the large-value variable to control the entire network learning process and affect the network learning effect. Therefore, the invention adopts The input variable-value domain conversion method is the probability mapping method. The designed research steps are as follows. (1) The average value of the statistical variables A and the fresh error α, (2) The minimum value required for setting is L and the maximum value /) _, (3) The data specification formula (η) is defined as follows:

(^max — ^min ) ^min ... (11) where I is the independent variable ^ is the average value; r is the standard deviation; 1 and 1 are the minimum and maximum values; ic is the conversion coefficient, when the technique 29 can be 99 · _ data is mapped to [H] interval, and the remaining (four).8, 2.58, 1.96, i 65, h 28 map the variable values of 99 5%, 99%, 9 heat, _, and view to [/ ) — Interval. The lion's inverted transmission neural network data pre-processing analysis method is to obtain the average value and the fresh error of the training machine number for each 26 1284865~ring® sub-, respectively, and A sample is used to convert the variable value domain. (5) Inverted-transfer-like neural network calculation process The operation and calculation process of the inverse-transmission network system can be divided into the following steps: (1) setting the network majority '(2) clearly random random number setting weighting matrix i and [fine , and the partial weight vector ❹ and initial value, (3) calculate the hidden layer (Hidden (four) output; (4) set the output layer 鲁 (Output layer} and the hidden layer allowable gap: (5) calculate the output layer and hidden layer gap; (6) discriminate output Whether the gap between the layer and the hidden layer is larger than the material gap, if the gap is less than the allowable gap 1, the best regression model can be obtained; (7) if the output layer and the hidden layer allow the gap to be larger than the difference, the output layer and the hidden layer weight matrix are calculated. And the bias value correction amount; (8) re-correcting the output layer and the IU layer weight matrix and the partial weight, repeating (3)-(8) until the gap between the output layer and the hidden layer is within the allowable gap (ie, when step (6) is not satisfied), And compare the ambiguity of the sensitivity correction amount to find the most Lujia regression model. The above-mentioned reverse-transfer-like neural network algorithm flow is arranged in the second diagram. (6) Sensitivity analysis of network mode (Sensitivity Analysi s) When using the inverse transfer neural network, if the input and output units are approximately monotonous (H〇m_ous), the sensitivity of the mapping output unit of each unit can be input from the weighted analysis network on the link. A positive positive value indicates a greater positive correlation between the two, and a larger negative value indicates a negative phase between the two. This process represents network learning f and minimizes the energy function with the steepest slope method. Whenever a training paradigm is entered, the network must adjust the weighting value by a large amount of 27.1284865 'small' so that the adjustment amplitude is proportional to the sensitivity of the error function to the weighting value, ie the error function - for the weighted value The partial differential value is proportional to the above, and the above relationship value is defined as the following equation (12): -η 6Ε ~dW~ (12) where the weighting value ^ ^ between the i-th and yth processing units is the learning rate In order to control the error adjustment range of the steepest slope method, the non-immediate factor value and the immediate factor value taken out are finally transmitted back to the back-end expert system for immediate regression operation, so as to correctly predict the potential danger of local soil flow in real time. For this hair According to the value of 181 soil and stone flow risk factors in Nantou County, a database of risk factors for earth-rock flow is established by using the associated database link and object-oriented language. The active disaster notification database system located at the back end of the Internet has its main function. The ECA model is used to actively query and give data, and it is responsible for synchronizing with the WinCE database. In addition, the selection of the escape route is also one of the key points. The functions and methods of the invention proposed and designed mainly include the active database. The architecture and design and escape path simulation, the related design methods are described as follows. (7) Active Database (Active Database) This invention will design and improve the traditional database into a proactive database (Active Database) The ECA (Event-Condition-Action) model is used to process the data in the active database, so that all the information is no longer passively checked. 28 1284865 f2 Stomach material transfer system is the main situation. Check, / / use # $上立立问问衫 to lose people slope collapse information: If there is a new slope, the collapse will be fast Notify the system, let the gamblers query the grammar themselves ((4) 17 Lang Feng), and then open the side of the "sentimental _. In addition, if the user in the vicinity of the area finds that the user is in the danger zone, the system will notify the gambler by means of the police. The inquiry is also made by bribes to achieve the highest effect and the least. Disaster risk. Φ slope collapse damage (4) brother: the construction of the shell library, using single-technology can not solve all the problems, so the use of - architecture for private correlation technology. In recent years, due to the mature development of related technologies such as telemetry technology (10), geographic information system (GIS), global satellite positioning system (GPS) and satellite image processing and analysis system (ips), integrated construction of slope collapse prevention technology and Gps/Gls /Ips technology series application, further active development of slope collapse prevention technology automation and information system, for the subsequent conservation of water and soil resources and prevention of slope collapse disasters, can provide accurate and rapid information exchange, which is beneficial to slope collapse Construction of a disaster environment database operating system. If the application level of the slope collapse disaster prevention technology is applied, the integrated system can be divided into the following three parts: (i) Natural environment: including administrative area, topography, geology, landform, water system, watershed, soil, meteorology, Related data layers such as hydrology and plant distribution. (ii) Humanistic environment, including man-made activities such as land use, road opening, mining, logging, spoil, indiscriminate, indiscriminate burial, and over-construction. (iii) Disaster environment: potential disasters such as landslides, ground slips, earth-rock flows, subsoil seepage, erosion to the source, and soil erosion. 29 1284865 (8) Simulation of escape route When a disaster occurs, the road in the disaster area is damaged, and the victims often appear to be confused and do not know where to escape. The design method of the present invention is called the Adaptive Path Method (APD), which is optimal. The inference of the escape path, and through the virtual reality (VR) simulation of the unrelated route, users only need to use the global satellite positioning system on the pDAM (Gp magic through the wireless network (Mobile Network) to connect to the Internet Decision Support System (DSS) to make the inference of the optimal escape path. The decision support system inference module uses the ant algorithm (eight algorithm) and cooperates with the most secret # algorithm (ShQrtest secret MethQd) to estimate the effective response reality. In the disaster area, the invention uses the backpack problem (Knapsack p(7)_) to make the refuge distance, the occupant capacity, and the special conditions for the survival of the food to ensure that the victims are too concentrated in the refuge, and indeed assist the victims to escape. The ant algorithm and the backpack problem used are introduced as follows: (i) The code of ant algorithm in nature When the ants travel to find food, the route they pass will leave behind the singularity (ph coffee.ne) to assist in the search for food, leaving a certain Wei _ outside the code to force the path that the menstruation has passed, along with As more and more code ants walk through the same distance, this road 2 costs increase in counties, and the mosquitoes will be higher. Saki, the rest of Wei’s path will be fe.it will evaporate less.蚂观可_费录录 Finding the relative path of the food. The shame is Wei _ is the natural world of the Na's marching things - kind of people, Jiner - like Xie Fa, Dashun to find the most round. The 20th garden is 1284865 However, according to the path of ants, Figure 16 shows the artificial code ant route. The ant algorithm is based on the travel salesman problem (Traveling knowledge and measurement PrPb) (10), ^p) Algorithm, if A is the distance between the city i and the city y, the distance of the corpse: - no / 7 price (four) y / knife % will generally be the problem of Tsp expressed as (n, e), n, 疋There is a set of cities a, E refers to the boundary between two cities (or connected sides), and A (t) (i 1 ', n) is the ant located in the city at time f · Quantity, so if the total number of all code sacrifices is /» ' ιη=Σ 4(1). At the beginning, only ants will randomly choose a city as the starting point and then the code ants will follow the probability function (Pr〇babilistic further choose code sacrifice) Walking under the city--according to the probability of the root (four) Luo Mengsu (fine surface such as " (1) and local heuristic W (Locally Heuristic: Functi〇n). P. Heuristic function in the present invention is The reciprocal of the distance between the two cities is obtained, so the heartbeat 々 uses the following equation to express the probability that only the ants in the city to the city at the time: pIu): if ie allowed k otherwise 射二之(1)(10)地在(4) The screaming of the screaming only _ may be discussed as the city of the next city, the value of the important relationship between the _ and the money control, the city, as for the method of the Philo pixel h得: rii(t+n)=p>krij(t)+Arij ί P is a coefficient of 7, as opposed to our weight to pheromone, which is the coefficient value of pheromone evaporation. . 31 * 1284865 The heart is the sum of all the pheromones in the city. - In the interval between time (10), how many cities and kisses have been sacrificed, so you can use this The theorem carries out the inference of the shortest escape path. (ii) Knapsack Problem Using the principle that a backpack can carry an item, the size of K is to be loaded into n different sizes of items, each of which has a value of ki of Vi, such that (ki) and its total price ν = Σ, (Vi) • Maximum. The algorithm is as follows.

Algorithm Knapack(S, K)Input·S(an array of size π storing the sizes of the items), and K(the size if the knapsack) Output: P(a two-dimensional array such that P[i9 k]. Exist = true if there exists a solution to the knapsack problem with the first i elements and a knapsack of size k, and P[i,k]· belong =true if ith element belongs to that solution)· Begin P[0, 0 Exist := true; for k :=1 to K do P[0y k]. exist := false; // there is no need to initialize P[i, 0] for i >= L because 32 -1284865 Will be computed from P[0, 0] f〇ri := 1 to n do for k := 0 to K do P[i,k]· exist := false; "the default value if P[i-ly k]. exist then P[if k]. exist := true;

P[i,k]. belong := false; else if kS[i]>=0 then if P[i-1, kS[i]]. exist then P[i,k]· exist :=true; P[i9 k]. belong := true

End, ----------__________ After judging the disaster, if the user is in a dangerous area, he must guide his escape route, give the escape route display to the user to understand and assist in escape, and use the backpack theorem Choose the appropriate refuge to carry out the evacuation of X harm. The user can input the number of people, the situation of the injury, the related factors such as the old man and the child, and infer that the New Zealand shed backpack theorem first selects the relevant route, and then the ant theorem to trace the relevant route, so that the user can complete the speed Leave the danger zone and escape to a safe haven. This I month's action-based earth-rock disaster prevention and notification system ^ towel before the patent, has not seen in the 働, silk shirt opened "please before, He Wei dirty cake, transfer practical and progressive elements, 爰According to the law, the special scope is requested, and the patent is granted, and the patent is granted. The above is only the preferred embodiment of the present invention, and thus the scope of the patent of the present invention is not limited thereto. Equivalent variations in the construction described in the scope of the present invention should be included in the scope of the invention.

34 1284865 -·· [Simple description of the diagram] The first diagram is the main system architecture diagram of the present invention. The second diagram is the main block diagram of the present invention. The third diagram is the fourth (four) line of the producer's end _ series of the fourth picture The fifth embodiment of the present invention is a smart agent architecture diagram. The sixth diagram is a smart agent flow chart of the present invention. The seventh diagram is a spatial data diagram of the path prediction method of the present invention. The ninth chart of the prediction method is shown in the figure IX. The path interpolation method and the extrapolation method of the path prediction method of the present invention - 'Tenth diagram The path prediction method of the path prediction method of the present invention\ The eleventh figure The path prediction method of the present invention Thirteenth figure, the oblique path diagram of the path prediction method of the present invention, the thirteenth figure, the IR and surface statistical analysis of the 0T satellite image of the present invention. The fifteenth figure is a schematic diagram of the distribution of the effective water collecting area of the earth-rock flow of the present invention. Figure 16 is a schematic diagram of the application of the gis\rs information extraction risk factor. The present invention uses the RS to immediately monitor the risk factor of the soil flow. Figure 18 is a flowchart of the inverse transfer neural network calculus of the present invention. The nineteenth figure of the present invention is a map of the soil flow risk factor in the Nantou County. Ants route map 35 1284865 - [Main component symbol description] ίο mobile user system 11 basic coordinate service 12 customized service 13 across heterogeneous network 14 instant multimedia transmission 20 multimedia application server φ 21 smart agent 210 use 211 network communication system 212 user interface agent 213 monitoring agent 214 rainfall information agent 215 news information agent φ 216 emergency notification agent 217 pre-download agent 218 coordination agent 219 layer information agent 220 database 221 rainfall information station and news network 22 Virtual Reality 23 Web Service 1284865 24 WAP Service 30 Expert Decision System 31 Inference Engine 32 Active Database 33 Escape Path Planning

Claims (1)

1284865 X. Patent application scope: 1. An action-based earth-rock disaster prevention and notification system, which includes at least: a set-up 彳μ面秘, its county-terminal position, can be far-reaching _ anti-shirt, bribe, multimedia Application server and expert decision-making system related information; a multimedia should be closed (4), at least #Smart agent secret, Bao Shiling system and lion and service power month b 'to separate a huge amount of media information, save back-end data inventory Time of the information, 7 仃 式 朗 朗 朗 朗 朗 朗 朗 朗 朗 朗 朗 朗 朗 朗 朗 朗 朗 朗 朗 朗 朗 朗 朗 朗 朗 朗 朗 朗 朗 朗 朗 朗 朗 朗 朗 朗 朗 朗 朗 朗 朗 朗 朗 朗 朗 朗 朗 朗 朗 朗 朗The prediction mode is used to provide users with reference to the pre-disaster (four) decision-making judgment. Such as Shen (7) patent called the third item - a kind of action-based earth-rock disaster prevention and notification system, the terminal of the squat-style end of the towel is set as a desktop computer. 3.—If applying __丨嫩之—Axis soil Xie lion and notification system The ordering system is the _ notebook computer. = 彳 彳 丨 — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — Li Wei 1 Miscellaneous - the species of the stone lion and the notification system 6 its order as the mobile end of the private age __ hand stationed mobile equipment. The action-type item is an action-oriented earth-rock 峨 与 通报 通报 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. Its mobile species action-oriented earth-rock flow _ defense and notification system a hand-held office; 38 1284865 Wang ball 疋 system receiver provides satellite positioning service or a wireless transmission device to provide wireless network connection and transmission; a computer camera provides multimedia Image capture; a microphone and a headset provide sound input and output; a handheld device-specific camera or camera; a display device that transmits (receives) captured and received data. 8. A mobile earthquake disaster prevention and notification system as described in item 1 of the patent application scope. • The software of the mobile user system includes at least: (1) Location-Based Services, (2) Cust〇mized Information Services, (3) Trans-heterogeneous network transmission (〇ver Heter()gene〇us Networks) and (4) Real-time Multimedia Transmissi〇n. 9. An action-based earth-rock disaster prevention and notification system as described in item 1 of the scope of the patent application, the satellite positioning data and the earth-rock disaster factor's collected by users of the user-operated user system (1) Effective catchment area, (2) effective bed length, (3) effective creek bed slope, _(4) lithology in the Lianshui area, (5) effective catchment area (4) collapse area, (6) effective cumulative rainfall, (7) effective rainfall intensity and (8) vegetative Decrease her fairy to communicate or infer through the system through the device-operational communication network or the Internet. 10. The mobile-based disaster prevention and notification system as described in item i of the patent application scope, wherein the intelligent agent of the multimedia application server includes; (1) user interface agent, (2) orphan agent, (3) rain § § 代理 agent, (4) news agency, (5) emergency notification agent, (6) pre-download agent, (7) coordination agent, (8) layer information agent. 39 1284865 ii. An action-based earth-rock disaster prevention and notification system as described in claim i, wherein the multimedia device in the multimedia application server comprises at least: a personal computer or server providing system construction and display; The Internet connection device provides network connection and transmission; a computer camera provides multimedia image capture; a microphone and earphone provides sound input and output; and a display device that transmits (receives) the captured and received data. 12. An action-based earth-rock disaster prevention and notification system as described in the third paragraph of the patent scope, the expert decision-making system consists of at least: a person computer or server provides system construction and display; an internet connection The device provides network connection and transmission; the display device that transmits (receives) the captured and received data. 13. For an action-based earth-rock disaster prevention and notification system as described in item 1 of the patent application scope, the software components of the expert decision-making system include at least: (U inference engine (2) active database (3) escape route planning 1284865 VII. Designated representative map: (1) The representative representative figure of this case is: (2). (2) The component symbol of this representative figure is simple: ίο mobile user terminal system 20 multimedia application server 30 expert decision system 8. If there is a chemical formula in this case, please disclose the chemical formula that best shows the characteristics of the invention: