TW201822079A - Power production forecasting system for solar power plants and method thereof according to the movement speed of clouds, loss ratio of decreased power production and power produced by a power plant in history - Google Patents

Power production forecasting system for solar power plants and method thereof according to the movement speed of clouds, loss ratio of decreased power production and power produced by a power plant in history Download PDF

Info

Publication number
TW201822079A
TW201822079A TW105140058A TW105140058A TW201822079A TW 201822079 A TW201822079 A TW 201822079A TW 105140058 A TW105140058 A TW 105140058A TW 105140058 A TW105140058 A TW 105140058A TW 201822079 A TW201822079 A TW 201822079A
Authority
TW
Taiwan
Prior art keywords
power
power plant
power generation
time interval
plant
Prior art date
Application number
TW105140058A
Other languages
Chinese (zh)
Other versions
TWI637332B (en
Inventor
陳坤宏
Original Assignee
春禾科技有限公司
Priority date (The priority date is an assumption and is not a legal conclusion. Google has not performed a legal analysis and makes no representation as to the accuracy of the date listed.)
Filing date
Publication date
Application filed by 春禾科技有限公司 filed Critical 春禾科技有限公司
Priority to TW105140058A priority Critical patent/TWI637332B/en
Publication of TW201822079A publication Critical patent/TW201822079A/en
Application granted granted Critical
Publication of TWI637332B publication Critical patent/TWI637332B/en

Links

Classifications

    • YGENERAL TAGGING OF NEW TECHNOLOGICAL DEVELOPMENTS; GENERAL TAGGING OF CROSS-SECTIONAL TECHNOLOGIES SPANNING OVER SEVERAL SECTIONS OF THE IPC; TECHNICAL SUBJECTS COVERED BY FORMER USPC CROSS-REFERENCE ART COLLECTIONS [XRACs] AND DIGESTS
    • Y04INFORMATION OR COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGIES HAVING AN IMPACT ON OTHER TECHNOLOGY AREAS
    • Y04SSYSTEMS INTEGRATING TECHNOLOGIES RELATED TO POWER NETWORK OPERATION, COMMUNICATION OR INFORMATION TECHNOLOGIES FOR IMPROVING THE ELECTRICAL POWER GENERATION, TRANSMISSION, DISTRIBUTION, MANAGEMENT OR USAGE, i.e. SMART GRIDS
    • Y04S10/00Systems supporting electrical power generation, transmission or distribution
    • Y04S10/50Systems or methods supporting the power network operation or management, involving a certain degree of interaction with the load-side end user applications

Abstract

A power production forecasting system for solar power plans and method thereof, which comprises the steps of: checking, using a first power plant as the center, the power production of a second power plant in the surrounding area; when the power production of the second power plant decreases in a first time interval, checking to see if a third power plant whose power production also decreases; when the power production of the third power plant decreases in a second time interval, calculating the loss ratio of the decreased power production according to the power production of the second power plant and the third power plant; confirming effects of clouds in air on the second power plant and the third power plant; calculating the movement speed of the clouds; estimating the time for the clouds to arrive the first power plant according to the movement speed of the clouds; and estimating possible power production of the first power plant according to the loss ratio of decreased power production and the historical amount of power produced by the first power plant.

Description

太陽能電廠的發電預測系統與方法Power generation prediction system and method for solar power plant

本創作係有關於一種發電預測系統與方法,特別是有關於一種太陽能電廠的發電預測系統與方法。This creation relates to a power generation prediction system and method, and particularly to a solar power plant prediction system and method.

隨著科技進步,能源消耗劇增,化石能源日趨枯竭,因此尋找替代能源為刻不容緩的事。太陽能具備取之不盡和清潔無汙染的特性,太陽能發電具有結構簡單、體積小、重量輕,容易安裝、運輸方便、建設容易、維護方便、清潔以及安全等優點,因此太陽能成為再生能源開發利用的主要選項之一。With the advancement of science and technology, energy consumption has increased dramatically, and fossil energy sources have become increasingly exhausted. Therefore, it is urgent to find alternative energy sources. Solar energy is inexhaustible and clean and pollution-free. Solar power generation has the advantages of simple structure, small size, light weight, easy installation, convenient transportation, easy construction, convenient maintenance, cleanliness, and safety. Therefore, solar energy has become a renewable energy source. One of the main options.

太陽能發電具有發電不穩的缺點,因此,若能對太陽能電廠的輸出功率進行預測,有助於電力系統調度的統籌安排,有利於常規能源和太陽能發電能源的相互協調,電力公司可即時調整與調度,合理安排電網運行方式,可以有效降低太陽能併入電網時對原有電網的影響,提高電網運行的安全性和穩定性,也可以減少電力系統的備用和運行成本,以充分利用太陽能資源,獲得更大的效益。Solar power generation has the disadvantage of unstable power generation. Therefore, if the output power of a solar power plant can be predicted, it will be helpful for the overall planning of power system scheduling, and it will be beneficial to the coordination between conventional energy and solar power. Scheduling and reasonable arrangement of grid operation methods can effectively reduce the impact of the integration of solar energy on the original grid, improve the safety and stability of the grid operation, and reduce the standby and operating costs of the power system to make full use of solar energy resources. Get more benefits.

太陽能發電系統的輸出功率會受到太陽輻射、天氣因素以及太陽能板本身材料的因素影響,其發電量和輸出電功率隨機性強,波動大,不可控制。在天氣突變、雲層團迅速變化及移動時,發電受其影響的狀況特別明顯,太陽能電力在併入電網後會對電網原有的電能品質和安全帶來影響。因此,必需對天空的雲層團動態變化進行即時監測。目前用於天空雲層監測可使用全天空成像儀等的設備,全天空成像儀能夠對當地可視範圍內360度的全天空進行即時資料採集和分析,其較常用於天文觀測、氣象預報或攝像等用途上。近年來也有研究單位利用該類設備進行天空雲層的動態特性分析,以進行太陽能發電的功率預測。全天空成像儀主要是由一反射鏡所組成,將360度範圍內天空成像在反射鏡表面,然後使用具備感光耦合元件(CCD)的鏡頭進行拍攝,獲取影像資料後,利用影像軟體對獲取的半球形照片或視頻進行展開和相應的目標識別與定位處理。The output power of a solar power generation system will be affected by solar radiation, weather factors, and the material of the solar panel itself. Its power generation and output power are highly random, with large fluctuations and uncontrollable. When the weather changes suddenly, cloud clusters change rapidly and move, power generation is particularly affected by the situation. After the integration of solar power into the grid, it will affect the original power quality and safety of the grid. Therefore, it is necessary to monitor the dynamic changes of the cloud clusters in the sky. At present, the equipment used for sky cloud monitoring can use all-sky imager and other equipment. The all-sky imager can collect and analyze the real-time data of 360 degrees in the local visible range. It is more commonly used for astronomical observation, weather forecast or camera Use. In recent years, some research units have also used this type of equipment to analyze the dynamic characteristics of the sky and clouds, so as to predict the power of solar power. The all-sky imager is mainly composed of a mirror, which images the sky within 360 degrees on the surface of the mirror, and then uses a lens with a photosensitive coupling element (CCD) to shoot. After obtaining image data, the image software is used to obtain the The hemispherical photo or video is expanded and the corresponding target recognition and positioning process is performed.

全天空成像儀雖然能夠對較大範圍視角內的天空雲層圖像進行採集和後續處理,但是所取得之圖像中都存在形狀和位置畸變,即使能夠採用影像軟體對畸變的物像進行一定程度的回復,但是其與實際物體的特徵依然存在較大的差異,並且物像精度和準確度較低,距離成像中心越遠,影像變形的問題越嚴重。Although the all-sky imager can collect and follow-up the sky cloud images in a wide range of viewing angles, there are distortions in shape and position in the images obtained, even if the image software can be used to perform distortion to a certain extent However, there are still large differences between the characteristics of the actual object and the low accuracy and accuracy of the object image. The further away from the imaging center, the more serious the problem of image distortion.

因此,需要提出一種太陽能電廠的發電預測方法可以針對雲層之移動路徑進行預測,以及對太陽能電廠的影響程度進行有效的評估。Therefore, it is necessary to propose a method for predicting the power generation of a solar power plant, which can predict the movement path of the clouds and effectively evaluate the impact of the solar power plant.

本創作的目的在創作一種太陽能電廠的發電預測方法,透過該發電預測方法預測太陽能電廠是否會受到雲層的影響,並推算發電受其影響的幅度,進一步作太陽能電廠之發電量預測。The purpose of this creation is to create a power generation prediction method for solar power plants. The power generation prediction method is used to predict whether a solar power plant will be affected by the cloud layer, and to estimate the magnitude of the impact of power generation, and to further predict the power generation of solar power plants.

根據上述之目的,提出一種太陽能電廠的發電預測方法,包含下列步驟: 以一第一電廠為中心,查看該第一電廠周圍複數個電廠中是否有一第二電廠在一第一時間區間發生一發電量下降; 當該第二電廠在該第一時間區間的該發電量下降,以該第二電廠與該第一電廠所在位置連成一假想直線,尋找在該假想直線的一區域範圍內是否存在一第三電廠,且該第三電廠在一第二時間區間有發生該發電量下降,其中該第二時間區間早於該第一時間區間; 計算該第二電廠在該第一時間區間的一發電量下降損失比例及該第三電廠在該第二時間區間的該發電量下降損失比例; 根據該第二電廠與該第三電廠之間的相對距離、該第一時間區間與該第二時間區間之間的時間差,計算一雲層由第三電廠移動至第二電廠的移動速度; 根據該雲層的該移動速度,推算該雲層移動至該第一電廠的一第三時間區間,其中該第三時間區間為一未來時間區間,且該第三時間區間晚於該第一時間區間與該第二時間區間; 根據該發電量下降損失比例與該第一電廠的一參考發電量,推算該第一電廠在該第三時間區間的發電量。According to the above purpose, a method for predicting the power generation of a solar power plant is proposed, which includes the following steps: centering on a first power plant, and checking whether a plurality of power plants around the first power plant have a second power plant generating power in a first time interval When the power generation of the second power plant decreases in the first time interval, the second power plant and the position of the first power plant are connected to form an imaginary straight line to find whether there is a A third power plant, and the third power plant has a decrease in the power generation amount in a second time interval, wherein the second time interval is earlier than the first time interval; calculating a power generation of the second power plant in the first time interval The ratio of the amount of power loss and the loss of power generation of the third power plant in the second time interval; according to the relative distance between the second power plant and the third power plant, the first time interval and the second time interval The time difference between the two, calculates the moving speed of a cloud layer from the third power plant to the second power plant; according to the moving speed of the cloud layer, the cloud layer is estimated To a third time interval of the first power plant, wherein the third time interval is a future time interval, and the third time interval is later than the first time interval and the second time interval; The loss ratio and a reference power generation amount of the first power plant are used to estimate the power generation amount of the first power plant in the third time interval.

本創作的另一目的在創作一種太陽能電廠的發電預測系統,透過該發電預測系統可以計算預測電廠是否會受到雲層遮蔽的影響導致發電量下降,並進一步預測電廠發電量。Another purpose of this creation is to create a power generation forecasting system for solar power plants, through which the power generation forecasting system can calculate and predict whether the power plant will be affected by cloud cover and cause power generation to decline, and further predict the power generation of the power plant.

根據上述的目的,提出一種太陽能電廠的發電預測系統,包含: 一發電量下降搜尋裝置,連接一太陽能管理系統,於該太陽能管理系統的一資料庫中,以一第一電廠為中心尋找其周圍的複數個電廠中,是否存在一第二電廠在一第一時間區間發生發電量下降,以及是否存在一第三電廠在一第二時間區間發生發電量下降,其中該第二時間區間早於該第一時間區間,該第一電廠與該第二電廠所在位置連成一假想直線,該第三電廠位於由該假想直線對外擴展的一區域範圍內; 一發電量下降計算裝置,連接該發電量下降搜尋裝置,以計算該第二電廠與該第三電廠之一發電量下降損失比例; 一移動速度計算裝置,連接該發電量下降搜尋裝置與該太陽能管理系統,根據該第二電廠與該第三電廠之間的相對距離以及該第一時間區間與該第二時間區間的時間差,計算一雲層的移動速度; 一移動時間計算裝置,連接該移動速度計算裝置與該太陽能管理系統,根據該雲層的該移動速度,推算該雲層到達該第一電廠的一第三時間區間,其中該第三時間區間晚於該第二時間區間與該第一時間區間; 一發電計算裝置,連接該移動時間計算裝置與該發電量下降計算裝置,根據該第二電廠與該第三電廠之該發電量下降損失比例以及該第一電廠的一參考發電量,推算該第一電廠在該第三時間區間的發電量。According to the above purpose, a power generation prediction system for a solar power plant is proposed, including: a power generation decline search device connected to a solar energy management system, and searching a surrounding area around a first power plant in a database of the solar energy management system; Among the plurality of power plants, whether there is a second power plant with a decrease in power generation in a first time interval, and whether there is a third power plant with a decrease in power generation in a second time interval, wherein the second time interval is earlier than the In the first time interval, the first power plant and the position of the second power plant are connected to form an imaginary straight line, and the third power plant is located in an area extended outward from the imaginary straight line; a power generation decline calculation device is connected to the power generation decline A search device to calculate the ratio of the power generation decline loss of the second power plant and one of the third power plant; a moving speed calculation device connecting the power generation decline search device and the solar energy management system, according to the second power plant and the third power plant The relative distance between power plants and the time difference between the first time interval and the second time interval, A moving speed of a cloud layer; a moving time calculating device connected to the moving speed calculating device and the solar energy management system, and estimating a third time interval when the cloud layer reaches the first power plant according to the moving speed of the cloud layer, wherein the first The three time intervals are later than the second time interval and the first time interval; a power generation calculation device that connects the moving time calculation device and the power generation amount reduction calculation device, according to the power generation amounts of the second power plant and the third power plant Reduce the loss ratio and a reference power generation amount of the first power plant to estimate the power generation amount of the first power plant in the third time interval.

本創作的優點在於:可以有效預測第一電廠是否可能受到雲層的干擾導致發電量下降的情況產生,且相較於全天空成像儀以影像來判斷雲層移動與雲層能對電廠造成的影響,本創作的太陽能電廠預測系統與方法沒有影像處理的缺點,且可以計算出可能下降的發電量。The advantage of this creation is that it can effectively predict whether the first power plant may be affected by the interference of the cloud layer and cause the decline in power generation. Compared with the all-sky imager, the image is used to judge the impact of cloud movement and cloud layer on the power plant. The created solar power plant prediction system and method does not have the disadvantages of image processing, and can calculate the amount of power generation that may drop.

請參閱圖1,本創作之太陽能電廠的發電預測系統10包含發電量下降搜尋裝置11、發電量下降計算裝置12、移動速度計算裝置13、移動時間計算裝置14與發電計算裝置15。另外,在此需要說明的是,本創作之發電預測系統的太陽能電廠可以是包含1個最大功率點跟蹤(Maximum Power Point Tracking,MPPT)、複數個MPPT、1個逆變器或複數個逆變器,而所預測的太陽能電廠可以是整個太陽能電廠或部分的太陽能電廠,在此並不局限。Referring to FIG. 1, the power generation prediction system 10 of the solar power plant of the present invention includes a power generation amount reduction search device 11, a power generation amount calculation device 12, a movement speed calculation device 13, a movement time calculation device 14, and a power generation calculation device 15. In addition, it should be noted here that the solar power plant of the power generation prediction system of the present invention may include a Maximum Power Point Tracking (MPPT), a plurality of MPPTs, an inverter, or a plurality of inverters. The predicted solar power plant can be the entire solar power plant or part of the solar power plant, which is not limited here.

發電預測系統10可安裝於一太陽能管理系統20中,或者發電預測系統10可以為一電腦系統並與該太陽能管理系統20連接,在此並不局限。The power generation prediction system 10 may be installed in a solar energy management system 20, or the power generation prediction system 10 may be a computer system and connected to the solar energy management system 20, which is not limited herein.

太陽能管理系統20為管理太陽能電廠的系統設備,用於收集太陽能電廠的電廠資料、發電資料或元件訊號輸出與輸入資料等,其主要包含一資料庫21,該資料庫21可儲存多個太陽能電廠的電廠資料、發電資料或元件訊號輸出與輸入資料等,太陽能管理系統20為本領域具有通常知識者所熟知,因此在此不再對太陽能管理系統20的結構與功能進行詳細敘述。The solar energy management system 20 is a system equipment for managing a solar power plant, and is used to collect power plant data, power generation data, or component signal output and input data of the solar power plant. It mainly includes a database 21, which can store multiple solar power plants. The power plant data, power generation data, or component signal output and input data, etc., the solar energy management system 20 is well known to those having ordinary knowledge in the art, so the structure and functions of the solar energy management system 20 will not be described in detail here.

發電量下降搜尋裝置11連接該太陽能管理系統20,且在太陽能管理系統20的資料庫21中,藉由比對太陽能電廠在歷史時間的發電量與實際發電量是否下降,例如尋找是否有複數個電廠發生發電量下降的現象,進而判斷電廠的發電量下降是否為雲層影響而造成的。發電量下降搜尋裝置11可以是一軟體,可讀取資料庫21中所有太陽能電廠的發電狀況,根據發電狀況搜尋是否發生發電量下降的情況。The power generation amount reduction search device 11 is connected to the solar energy management system 20, and in the database 21 of the solar energy management system 20, the power generation amount of the solar power plant in historical time is compared with the actual power generation amount, for example, to find whether there are multiple power plants The decline in power generation occurs, and it is further determined whether the decline in power generation of the power plant is caused by the influence of clouds. The power generation amount reduction searching device 11 may be software that can read the power generation conditions of all the solar power plants in the database 21 and search for whether a power generation amount reduction has occurred according to the power generation conditions.

舉例來說,以一第一電廠為中心,該第一電廠為需要預測是否受到雲層干擾的目標電廠,發電量下降搜尋裝置11搜尋該第一電廠周圍之複數個電廠中是否存在一第二電廠在一第一時間區間發生發電量下降,並以第一電廠與第二電廠為假想直線,發電量下降搜尋裝置11找尋該假想直線對外擴展所在的一區域範圍是否有一第三電廠在一第二時間區間發生類似發電量下降的情況。For example, taking a first power plant as the center, the first power plant is a target power plant that needs to be predicted whether it is affected by cloud cover, and the power generation amount reduction searching device 11 searches for whether a second power plant exists in a plurality of power plants around the first power plant. In a first time interval, a decrease in power generation occurs, and the first power plant and the second power plant are assumed to be imaginary straight lines. The power generation decrease search device 11 searches whether there is a third power plant in a second area where the imaginary straight line expands outward. A similar situation occurred during the time interval.

如圖2A所示,假設第一電廠的所在位置標示為C,從假想直線對外擴展的該區域範圍可以是一扇形區域範圍,該扇形區域範圍以第一電廠的所在位置為扇形的頂點,該扇形區域範圍具有一圓心角,該發電量下降搜尋裝置11判斷在此扇形區域範圍內是否有第二電廠(標示A)及第三電廠(標示H),而該第二電廠與該第三電廠的發電量在一時間區間內發生下降狀況;或者如圖2B所示,從假想直線對外擴展的該區域範圍可由相隔一段距離S之兩條假想平行線L1、L2圍繞而成,介於兩平行線L1、L2之間的中線L3係通過該第一電廠C。As shown in FIG. 2A, assuming that the location of the first power plant is marked as C, the range of the area extending outward from the imaginary straight line may be a sector area range, and the sector area range uses the location of the first power plant as a vertex of the sector. The sector area has a center angle, and the power generation reduction search device 11 determines whether there is a second power plant (labeled A) and a third power plant (labeled H) within the sector area, and the second power plant and the third power plant The amount of electricity generated has declined within a time interval; or as shown in FIG. 2B, the area extending from the imaginary straight line can be surrounded by two imaginary parallel lines L1 and L2 separated by a distance S, between two parallel The middle line L3 between the lines L1 and L2 passes through the first power plant C.

發電量下降搜尋裝置11根據該第一電廠在正常發電量與下降發電量之間的該誤差百分比是否超過一門檻值,或者根據該電廠在該歷史時間區間的該晴天發電量與該下降發電量之間的該誤差百分比是否超出該門檻值而確認該第一電廠發生發電量下降,作為第一電廠之發電量下降的搜尋方法。該正常發電量與該下降發電量的時間可以是前後發電下降量瞬間發電量的差別,而且,在上午與下午設定不同門檻值。也可以根據該電廠同一時期晴天的發電量資料做為參考資料,將同一時間點的實際發電量跟晴天發電量作比對,可以發現某一瞬間或某一段時間區間發電量是否有下降情況產生。太陽能電廠晴天的發電狀況可以透過尋找太陽能電廠在歷史時間的晴天發電量做為參考資料,若沒有找到歷史時間的晴天發電量,可以透過尋找太陽能電廠在歷史時間的前後幾天(不同年份、相同月份與相同日期的前後幾天)的發電量中尋找晴天的發電量。The power generation amount reduction searching device 11 is based on whether the error percentage between the normal power generation amount and the reduced power generation amount of the first power plant exceeds a threshold value, or according to the sunny power generation amount and the reduced power generation amount of the power plant in the historical time interval. Whether the error percentage between the two exceeds the threshold value and confirms that the power generation of the first power plant decreases, as a search method for the power generation of the first power plant decreases. The time between the normal power generation amount and the falling power generation amount may be the difference between the instantaneous power generation amount before and after the power generation reduction amount, and different thresholds are set in the morning and afternoon. You can also use the sunny day power generation data of the power plant in the same period as a reference, and compare the actual power generation at the same time point with the sunny day power generation. You can find whether the power generation has decreased in a certain moment or in a certain period of time. . The power generation status of the solar power plant on a sunny day can be found by looking at the amount of sunny power generation of the solar power plant in historical time as a reference. Look for the amount of electricity generated on a sunny day from the amount of electricity generated during the month and the same day).

舉例來說,發電預測系統10尋找民國105年9月8日之歷史時間的晴天發電量,可在太陽能管理系統20的資料庫21中尋找民國104年或民國104年以前在9月8日或9月8日前後幾天的發電量中是否有晴天發電量。若太陽能電廠在歷史時間或在歷史時間的前後幾天並無晴天發電量,或者可以藉由太陽能電廠在歷史時間的(不同年份,相同日期前後幾天,在每一天相同時間的資料擷取點,如6:00、6:05、…或18:00等)發電量進行取樣與篩選進而組合成一晴天發電量,再利用內插法進行晴天發電曲線平滑化,如圖3所示。如何應用太陽能電廠管理系統20之資料庫21進行發電量資料的比對與處理為本領域具有軟體設計與資料處理領域之通常知識者所熟知,在此不再贅述。另外,如圖4與圖5所示,一年四季365天中,太陽入射地球角度不斷改變,所屬晴天發電量也不同,因此需分別計算第三、第二、第一電廠不同日期的晴天發電量,才能藉由計算第三、第二電廠的發電損失,預測第一電廠的下個時間點的發電量。For example, the power generation forecasting system 10 looks for the amount of electricity generated on a sunny day at the historical time of September 8, 105. In the database 21 of the solar energy management system 20, it can look for the Republic of China 104 or before the Republic of 104 on September 8, or Is there a sunny day in the power generation in the days around September 8th? If the solar power plant has no sunny day power generation in historical time or a few days before and after historical time, or you can use the solar power plant in historical time (different years, days before and after the same date, at the same time on each day and at the same time) (Such as 6:00, 6:05, ..., or 18:00, etc.) The power generation amount is sampled and screened to form a sunny power generation amount, and then the interpolation method is used to smooth the sunny power generation curve, as shown in FIG. 3. How to use the database 21 of the solar power plant management system 20 for comparison and processing of power generation data is well known to those skilled in the art in the field of software design and data processing, and will not be repeated here. In addition, as shown in Figures 4 and 5, during 365 days of the year, the angle of the sun's incident earth continuously changes, and its sunny day power generation is also different. Therefore, it is necessary to calculate the sunny day power generation of the third, second, and first power plants on different dates. Can calculate the power generation losses of the third and second power plants and predict the power generation of the first power plant at the next time point.

發電量下降計算裝置12連接發電量下降搜尋裝置11,其可計算太陽能電廠之發電量受雲層影響的發電量下降損失比例。舉例來說,該發電量下降損失比例可透過計算正常發電量與下降發電量之間的該誤差百分比的誤差百分比,或者以該電廠同一歷史時期,晴天的發電量資料做為參考資料,將同一時間點的下降發電量跟晴天發電量作比對,計算該瞬間或該一段時間區間的發電損失比例,而計算的下降損失比例代表之太陽能電廠的實際發電損失。The power generation amount reduction calculation device 12 is connected to the power generation amount reduction search device 11, and can calculate the power generation amount reduction loss ratio of the solar power generation amount affected by the cloud layer. For example, the percentage of the power generation decline loss can be calculated by calculating the error percentage between the normal power generation and the decline in power generation, or using the power generation data of the power plant in the same historical period as the reference data, and the same The decline in power generation at a point in time is compared with the amount of electricity generated on a sunny day, and the proportion of power generation losses at that instant or period of time is calculated, and the calculated reduction loss ratio represents the actual power generation loss of the solar power plant.

另外,為了提升本創作太陽能電廠的發電預測系統的預測準確性,可另外找額外的太陽能電廠(例如第四電廠或第五電廠,甚至第六電廠),查看在該第二電廠與該第三電廠所連成之一直線上,使否存在發電量下降的狀況,若發現該第四電廠、該第五電廠或該第六電廠同樣也發生發電量下降的狀況,則更可以確定該雲層沿著該第二電廠與該第三電廠的直線移動,會在第三時間區間影響到第一電廠。In addition, in order to improve the prediction accuracy of the power generation prediction system of this creative solar power plant, you can find additional solar power plants (such as the fourth power plant or the fifth power plant, or even the sixth power plant), and check the second power plant and the third power plant. If one of the power plants is connected in a straight line, whether there is a decline in power generation. If it is found that the power generation of the fourth power plant, the fifth power plant, or the sixth power plant has also decreased, it can be determined that the cloud layer is along The linear movement of the second power plant and the third power plant will affect the first power plant in a third time interval.

為了進一步確認第一電廠會在第三時間區間發生發電量下降的狀況,發電量下降搜尋裝置11找到第一電廠周圍之第二電廠在第一時間區間發生發電量下降時,告知發電量下降計算裝置12,透過發電量下降計算裝置12計算該第二電廠之發電量下降損失比例,例如發電量的下降斜率或發電量的下降與回升的比例。另外,當該第三電廠在第二時間區間同樣發生類似之發電量下降的情況時,第二時間區間早於第一時間區間,透過發電量下降計算裝置12計算第三電廠的發電量下降損失比例。In order to further confirm that the first power plant will generate a decrease in power generation in the third time interval, the power generation decrease search device 11 finds that the second power plant around the first power plant has a decrease in power generation in the first time interval, and informs the calculation of the decrease in power generation. The device 12 calculates, through the power generation amount reduction calculation device 12, the power generation amount reduction loss ratio of the second power plant, for example, a decline slope of the power generation amount or a ratio of a decrease and a recovery of the power generation amount. In addition, when the third power plant also has a similar decline in power generation in the second time interval, the second time interval is earlier than the first time interval, and the power generation decline loss of the third power plant is calculated by the power generation decline calculation device 12 proportion.

移動速度計算裝置13連接發電量下降搜尋裝置11與太陽能管理系統20,可根據第二電廠與第三電廠之間的距離以及第二電廠與第三電廠分別發生發電量下降的第一時間區間與第二時間區間,計算雲層的移動速度。發電量下降搜尋裝置11找到受到雲層干擾的第二電廠與第三電廠後,將第二電廠與第三電廠的訊息傳遞至移動速度計算裝置13,移動速度計算裝置13從太陽能管理系統20的資料庫21中找到第二電廠與第三電廠的座標,即可根據第二電廠與第三電廠之間的相對距離(如圖2A所示,標示A與標示H之間的距離d)、第一時間區間與第二時間區間的時間差,計算雲層的移動速度。The moving speed calculation device 13 is connected to the power generation amount reduction search device 11 and the solar energy management system 20, and can be based on the distance between the second power plant and the third power plant and the first time interval in which the power generation amount of the second power plant and the third power plant respectively decreases. In the second time interval, the moving speed of the clouds is calculated. After the power generation reduction search device 11 finds the second power plant and the third power plant affected by the cloud, it transmits the information of the second power plant and the third power plant to the mobile speed calculation device 13, and the mobile speed calculation device 13 obtains data from the solar energy management system 20 The coordinates of the second power plant and the third power plant can be found in the library 21, according to the relative distance between the second power plant and the third power plant (as shown in FIG. 2A, the distance d between the label A and the label H), the first The time difference between the time interval and the second time interval is used to calculate the moving speed of the cloud layer.

移動時間計算裝置14連接移動速度計算裝置13與太陽能管理系統20,可根據雲層的移動速度以及第二電廠與第一電廠之間的相對距離,推算雲層到達第一電廠的第三時間區間,根據雲層的移動速度,並可以從太陽能管理系統20中找到第一電廠與第二電廠的座標位置,已知速度與距離,即可計算出雲層到達第一電廠的第三時間區間。其中,第三時間區間為未來時間區間,第三時間區間晚於第二時間區間與第一時間區間。The movement time calculation device 14 is connected to the movement speed calculation device 13 and the solar energy management system 20, and can calculate the third time interval when the cloud layer reaches the first power plant according to the movement speed of the cloud layer and the relative distance between the second power plant and the first power plant. The moving speed of the cloud layer, and the coordinate positions of the first power plant and the second power plant can be found from the solar energy management system 20. Knowing the speed and distance, the third time interval when the cloud layer reaches the first power plant can be calculated. The third time interval is a future time interval, and the third time interval is later than the second time interval and the first time interval.

發電計算裝置15連接移動時間計算裝置14、發電量下降計算裝置12與太陽能管理系統20,根據第一電廠在歷史時間的晴天發電量乘上第二電廠或第三電廠的發電量下降損失比例,或者第一電廠在歷史時間的晴天發電量乘上第二電廠與第三電廠之發電量下降損失比例的平均值,可預測第一電廠在該第三時間區間受到雲層影響後的發電量,根據該發電量,可以讓電力調度者提早調度其他電力補充,或將過多之電力輸送至其他用電單位。The power generation calculation device 15 connects the moving time calculation device 14, the power generation amount reduction calculation device 12 and the solar energy management system 20, and multiplies the power generation amount of the second power plant or the third power plant in the historical time by the first power plant on a sunny day. Or the first generation plant ’s power generation in sunny time is multiplied by the average value of the second generation plant ’s third generation plant ’s decline in power generation losses. The first generation plant ’s power generation in this third time interval is affected by cloud cover. The amount of generated electricity can allow the power dispatcher to schedule other power supplements in advance, or send excessive power to other power consumers.

請參閱圖6與圖2A-圖2B,在步驟S301中,以一第一電廠為中心(如圖2A-圖2B的C點電廠),查看該第一電廠周圍複數個電廠(如圖2A-圖2B的A、B、D或G點電廠)的發電狀況,是否存在一個發生發電量下降的第二電廠。第一電廠為需要預測發電量的目標電廠,查看第一電廠周圍複數個電廠的發電狀況,當有雲層移動到某個第二電廠的上方時,雲層遮蔽照射至第二電廠的太陽光,導致第二電廠的發電發生下降現象,因此藉由搜尋第一電廠周圍之第二電廠的發電狀況,了解附近的複數個第二電廠中是否有雲層導致發電量下降狀況產生,進而判斷第一電廠是否可能受到相同雲層的影響。該複數個電廠(包含第一電廠、第二電廠與第三電廠)為一太陽能管理系統所管理的電廠,而該複數個電廠的發電狀況都記錄在太陽能管理系統的資料庫中,可從資料庫中尋找複數個電廠的發電狀況,進而找出在該第一電廠周圍發生發電量下降的第二電廠。Please refer to FIG. 6 and FIG. 2A to FIG. 2B. In step S301, a first power plant is taken as a center (see a point C power plant in FIG. 2A to FIG. 2B), and a plurality of power plants around the first power plant (see FIG. 2A- Figure 2B (A, B, D, or G point power plants). The first power plant is the target power plant that needs to predict the power generation. Check the power generation status of multiple power plants around the first power plant. When a cloud layer moves over a second power plant, the cloud layer shields the sunlight shining on the second power plant, resulting in The power generation of the second power plant has declined. Therefore, by searching the power generation status of the second power plant around the first power plant, we know whether there are clouds in the nearby second power plants that have caused a decline in power generation, and then determine whether the first power plant May be affected by the same cloud layer. The plurality of power plants (including the first power plant, the second power plant and the third power plant) are power plants managed by a solar energy management system, and the power generation status of the plurality of power plants are recorded in a database of the solar energy management system, and data can be obtained from the data. The warehouse searches for the power generation status of a plurality of power plants, and then finds a second power plant in which a decrease in power generation occurs around the first power plant.

在步驟S302中,當某個第二電廠在第一時間區間發生發電量下降現象,以該第二電廠與該第一電廠為假想直線,尋找是否在該假想直線所在的一區域範圍內存在一第三電廠(如圖2A-圖2B的H點電廠)發生類似之發電量下降的現象。因為只有一個第二電廠發生發電量下降的現象,無法確定該雲層的移動方向是否會影響第一電廠,因此需要尋找在更加遠離第一電廠的地方是否有一第三電廠發生類似之發電量下降的狀況。另外,在此需要說明的是,本領域具有通常知識者可以從第二電廠在第一時間區間的發電量下降程度了解,該發電量下降的現象是太陽能電廠的內部元件故障所引起還是因為外在環境因素所造成的。另外,第三電廠同樣為該太陽能管理系統所管理的電廠,第三電廠與第一電廠之間的距離遠於第二電廠與第一電廠之間的距離,第二時間區間早於第一時間區間。In step S302, when the power generation of a second power plant decreases in the first time interval, the second power plant and the first power plant are used as imaginary straight lines to find whether there is a certain area within the area where the imaginary straight line is located. The third power plant (such as the H-point power plant in Figures 2A-2B) experienced a similar decline in power generation. Because only one second power plant has experienced a decline in power generation, it is impossible to determine whether the direction of movement of the cloud will affect the first power plant. Therefore, it is necessary to find whether there is a third power plant that has a similar decline in power generation. situation. In addition, it should be noted here that those with ordinary knowledge in the field can understand from the degree of power generation decline of the second power plant in the first time interval, whether the decline in power generation is caused by internal component failure of the solar power plant or because of external components. Caused by environmental factors. In addition, the third power plant is also a power plant managed by the solar management system. The distance between the third power plant and the first power plant is longer than the distance between the second power plant and the first power plant, and the second time interval is earlier than the first time. Interval.

在步驟S303中,當該第三電廠在第二時間區間發生發電量下降,根據該第二電廠與該第三電廠的下降發電量分別計算發電量下降損失比例。發電量下降損失比例可透過計算發電量下降之前後發電量(正常發電量與下降發電量)的誤差百分比或下降斜率,或者比照該電廠的歷史晴天發電量而獲得發電量下降區段的實際下降發電量。In step S303, when the power generation amount of the third power plant decreases in the second time interval, the power generation amount reduction loss ratio is calculated according to the reduced power generation amounts of the second power plant and the third power plant. The percentage of power generation loss can be calculated by calculating the error percentage or the slope of the power generation before and after the power generation is reduced (normal power generation and reduced power generation), or by comparing the historical sunny power generation of the power plant with the actual power generation reduction segment. Power generation.

下降斜率的公式為:R=(r1-r2)/(t1-t2)。The formula for the falling slope is: R = (r1-r2) / (t1-t2).

其中,如圖7A所示,r2為一時間區間(第一時間區間或第二時間區間)的最大發電量,t2為最大發電量r2發生的時間點,r1為該時間區間的最小發電量,t1為最小發電量r1發生的時間點。或者,在不同實施例中,也可以透過發電量損失比例來計算第一電廠在該第三時間區間受到雲層影響後的發電量。Wherein, as shown in FIG. 7A, r2 is the maximum power generation amount in a time interval (the first time interval or the second time interval), t2 is the time point when the maximum power generation amount r2 occurs, and r1 is the minimum power generation amount in the time interval. t1 is the time point when the minimum power generation amount r1 occurs. Alternatively, in different embodiments, the power generation amount of the first power plant under the influence of the cloud layer in the third time interval may also be calculated through the power generation amount loss ratio.

發電量下降損失比例公式為:(r1-r2)/r2。The formula for the proportion of loss of power generation loss is: (r1-r2) / r2.

並在步驟S304中,當第二電廠與第三電廠均發生發電量下降的情況,判斷該第二電廠與該第三電廠受到相同雲層的影響。當在不同時間區間發生第二電廠與第三電廠發電量下降的情況,判斷該第二電廠與該第三電廠受到相同雲層的影響。圖7A與圖7B顯示為兩個不同電廠受到相同雲層的影響而造成電廠的發電量下降的波形圖,波形B與波形A分別代表第二電廠與第三電廠的發電量,而由圖7B與圖7A的波形圖可以了解第二電廠與第三電廠分別在第一時間區間與第二時間區間發生發電量下降的情況,而且由波形圖可以明顯看出發電量並非是直接下降至零,而是瞬間發電量降低,由此可知第二電廠與第三電廠都是受到雲層影響而造成發電量下降。And in step S304, when the power generation of both the second power plant and the third power plant decreases, it is determined that the second power plant and the third power plant are affected by the same cloud layer. When the power generation of the second power plant and the third power plant decreases in different time intervals, it is determined that the second power plant and the third power plant are affected by the same cloud layer. 7A and 7B are waveform diagrams showing that two different power plants are affected by the same cloud layer and the power generation of the power plant is reduced. The waveforms B and A represent the power generation of the second power plant and the third power plant, respectively. The waveform diagram of FIG. 7A can understand the power generation decline of the second power plant and the third power plant in the first time interval and the second time interval, and it can be clearly seen from the waveform diagram that the power generation is not directly reduced to zero, but The instantaneous power generation decreases, which shows that both the second power plant and the third power plant are affected by the clouds and cause the power generation to decrease.

在步驟S305中,根據第二電廠與第三電廠之間的相對距離和第一時間區間與第二時間區間的時間差,透過移動速度計算裝置13計算該雲層的移動速度。太陽能電廠的設置並非是依據固定距離設置一太陽能電廠,太陽能電廠之間的距離皆不相同,需要計算雲層從第三電廠移動至第二電廠的速度,來預測該雲層到達第一電廠的第三時間區間。In step S305, according to the relative distance between the second power plant and the third power plant and the time difference between the first time interval and the second time interval, the moving speed of the cloud layer is calculated by the moving speed calculation device 13. The setting of a solar power plant is not to set a solar power plant based on a fixed distance. The distances between solar power plants are different. The speed of the cloud layer moving from the third power plant to the second power plant needs to be calculated to predict that the cloud layer will reach the third power plant. Time interval.

在步驟S306中,根據該雲層的該移動速度,透過移動時間計算裝置14推算該雲層移動至該第一電廠的一第三時間區間。獲得該雲層的移動速度後,第一電廠與第二電廠之間的距離也為已知,因此可以推算出雲層到達第一電廠的第三時間區間為何,進而可以預測第一電廠在第三時間區間會受到該雲層的影響,發電量發生下降的機率很高。In step S306, according to the moving speed of the cloud layer, the moving time calculation device 14 is used to estimate that the cloud layer moves to a third time interval of the first power plant. After obtaining the moving speed of the cloud layer, the distance between the first power plant and the second power plant is also known. Therefore, it is possible to calculate what is the third time interval when the cloud layer reaches the first power plant, and then it is possible to predict the first power plant at the third time. The interval will be affected by this cloud layer, and the probability of power generation falling is very high.

在步驟S307中,根據該發電量下降損失比例與該第一電廠的一參考發電量,推算該第一電廠在該第三時間區間的發電量,如圖7C所示。第一電廠在該歷史時間並無受到任何雲層干擾,換句話說,第一電廠在該歷史時間的發電量為晴天的發電量,透過第一電廠在歷史時間的晴天的發電量或第一電廠受到雲層影像發電損失之前的已知發電量以及發電量下降損失比例,可以推算出第一電廠在第三時間區間因雲層的干擾而導致發電量下降損失比例(或發電損失)的產生。因此,根據所推算出第一電廠在第三時間區間的可能發電量,電力公司可以提早因應電廠發電量下降的情況,有效分配電力,避免電力不足的情況產生。In step S307, the power generation amount of the first power plant in the third time interval is estimated according to the ratio of the power generation volume loss loss and a reference power generation amount of the first power plant, as shown in FIG. 7C. The first power plant did not receive any cloud interference during the historical time. In other words, the first power plant ’s power generation during the historical time was sunny. Before the known power generation amount and the power generation amount loss loss ratio before the cloud-layer image power generation loss, the generation of the power generation amount loss loss ratio (or power generation loss) caused by the cloud layer interference in the third time interval can be calculated. Therefore, based on the estimated possible power generation of the first power plant in the third time interval, the power company can respond to the decline in the power generation of the power plant early to effectively distribute power and avoid the situation of insufficient power.

另外,在此需要說明的是,雲層有可能任意地往任何方向移動,但因為太陽能發電不穩定,本創作的發電預測方法與系統仍具有參考價值,以防範發電量下降而導致電力公司發電不穩的情況產生。In addition, it should be noted here that the cloud layer may move in any direction arbitrarily, but because the solar power generation is unstable, the power generation prediction method and system of this creation still have reference value, in order to prevent the decline in power generation and the power company's power generation A stable situation arises.

10‧‧‧發電預測系統10‧‧‧Generation Forecast System

11‧‧‧發電量下降搜尋裝置11‧‧‧Search device for decreasing power generation

12‧‧‧發電量下降計算裝置12‧‧‧Calculation device for power generation decline

13‧‧‧移動速度計算裝置13‧‧‧moving speed calculation device

14‧‧‧移動時間計算裝置14‧‧‧ mobile time calculation device

15‧‧‧發電量計算裝置15‧‧‧power generation calculation device

20‧‧‧太陽能管理系統20‧‧‧Solar Management System

21‧‧‧資料庫21‧‧‧Database

r1, r2‧‧‧發電量r1, r2‧‧‧‧Power generation

t1, t2‧‧‧時間t1, t2‧‧‧time

圖1為本創作之太陽能電廠的發電預測系統的方塊圖。 圖2A-圖2B為本創作之太陽能電廠分佈的示意圖。 圖3為太陽能電廠之晴天的發電量波形圖。 圖4為太陽能電廠在不同時間與不同季節的發電量波形圖。 圖5為太陽在不同時間與不同季節的運行軌道的示意圖。 圖6為本創作之太陽能電廠的發電預測方法的步驟流程圖。 圖7A-7C為本創作之第二電廠、第三電廠與第一電廠的發電量波形圖。Figure 1 is a block diagram of a power generation prediction system for a solar power plant in this creation. Figures 2A-2B are schematic diagrams of the distribution of solar power plants in this creation. FIG. 3 is a waveform diagram of the power generation amount of the solar power plant on a sunny day. Figure 4 is a waveform diagram of the power generation of a solar power plant at different times and seasons. FIG. 5 is a schematic diagram of the orbit of the sun at different times and seasons. FIG. 6 is a flowchart of the steps of a method for generating power generation prediction for a solar power plant. Figures 7A-7C are waveform diagrams of the power generation of the second power plant, the third power plant, and the first power plant.

Claims (10)

一種太陽能電廠的發電預測方法,包含步驟: 以一第一電廠為中心,查看該第一電廠周圍複數個電廠中是否有一第二電廠在一第一時間區間發生一發電量下降; 當該第二電廠在該第一時間區間的該發電量下降,以該第二電廠與該第一電廠所在位置連成一假想直線,尋找在該假想直線的一區域範圍內是否存在一第三電廠,且該第三電廠在一第二時間區間有發生該發電量下降,其中該第二時間區間早於該第一時間區間; 計算該第二電廠在該第一時間區間的一發電量下降損失比例及該第三電廠在該第二時間區間的該發電量下降損失比例; 根據該第二電廠與該第三電廠之間的相對距離、該第一時間區間與該第二時間區間之間的時間差,計算一雲層由第三電廠移動至第二電廠的移動速度; 根據該雲層的該移動速度,推算該雲層移動至該第一電廠的一第三時間區間,其中該第三時間區間為一未來時間區間,且該第三時間區間晚於該第一時間區間與該第二時間區間; 根據該發電量下降損失比例與該第一電廠的一參考發電量,推算該第一電廠在該第三時間區間的發電量。A method for predicting the power generation of a solar power plant includes the steps of: taking a first power plant as a center to check whether a plurality of power plants around the first power plant has a second power plant in which a power generation decline occurs in a first time interval; The power generation amount of the power plant in the first time interval decreases, and the second power plant and the first power plant are connected to form an imaginary straight line to find whether a third power plant exists within a range of the imaginary straight line, and the first The three power plants experienced a decrease in the amount of power generation in a second time interval, wherein the second time interval was earlier than the first time interval; calculating a ratio of a second power plant's decrease in power generation losses in the first time interval and the first time interval; The proportion of the power generation of the three power plants in the second time interval is reduced; according to the relative distance between the second power plant and the third power plant, and the time difference between the first time interval and the second time interval, calculate a The moving speed of the cloud layer from the third power plant to the second power plant; based on the moving speed of the cloud layer, it is estimated that the cloud layer moves to a third of the first power plant Interval, where the third time interval is a future time interval, and the third time interval is later than the first time interval and the second time interval; according to the ratio of the power generation decline loss and a reference of the first power plant The power generation amount is used to estimate the power generation amount of the first power plant in the third time interval. 如請求項1所述之太陽能電廠的發電預測方法,其中該第二電廠與該第三電廠之該發電量下降損失比例為計算一正常發電量與一下降發電量之間的一誤差百分比,或參考該第二電廠與該第三電廠在同一歷史時間的一晴天發電量,將發生該發電量下降之同一時間點的該下降發電量與該晴天發電量作比對而獲得該發電量下降損失比例。The method for predicting the power generation of a solar power plant as described in claim 1, wherein the ratio of the reduction in power generation losses of the second power plant and the third power plant is an error percentage between the calculation of a normal power generation and a reduction in power generation, or With reference to the sunny day's power generation amount of the second power plant and the third power plant at the same historical time, the reduced power generation amount and the sunny day's power generation amount at the same time point where the power generation amount reduction occurs are compared to obtain the power generation amount loss loss. proportion. 如請求項2所述之太陽能電廠的發電預測方法,其中該晴天發電量為取樣與篩選該歷史時間的發電量組合而成,或該晴天發電量為利用一內插法與該歷史時間的發電量而獲得。The method for predicting the power generation of a solar power plant as described in claim 2, wherein the amount of sunny day power generation is a combination of sampling and screening of the amount of power generated during the historical time, or the amount of sunny day power generation is generated using an interpolation method and the historical time Amount. 如請求項2所述之太陽能電廠的發電預測方法,更包含根據該第一電廠在該正常發電量與該下降發電量之間的該發電量下降損失比例是否超過一門檻值,或者根據該電廠在該歷史時間區間的該晴天發電量與該下降發電量之間的該發電量下降損失比例是否超出該門檻值而確認該第一電廠發生該發電量下降。The method for predicting power generation of a solar power plant as described in claim 2, further including whether the ratio of the power generation decline loss between the normal power generation and the reduced power generation of the first power plant exceeds a threshold, or according to the power plant Whether the ratio of the power generation amount loss loss between the sunny power generation amount and the decreased power generation amount in the historical time interval exceeds the threshold value is confirmed to cause the first power plant to reduce the power generation amount. 如請求項1所述之太陽能電廠的發電預測方法,其中在計算該雲層的移動速度的該步驟中,係根據該第二電廠與該第三電廠的座標以獲得該第二電廠與該第三電廠之間的距離。The method for predicting the power generation of a solar power plant according to claim 1, wherein in this step of calculating the moving speed of the cloud layer, the coordinates of the second power plant and the third power plant are used to obtain the second power plant and the third power plant. Distance between power plants. 一種太陽能電廠的發電預測系統,包含: 一發電量下降搜尋裝置,連接一太陽能管理系統,於該太陽能管理系統的一資料庫中,以一第一電廠為中心尋找其周圍的複數個電廠中,是否存在一第二電廠在一第一時間區間發生發電量下降,以及是否存在一第三電廠在一第二時間區間發生發電量下降,其中該第二時間區間早於該第一時間區間,該第一電廠與該第二電廠所在位置連成一假想直線,該第三電廠位於由該假想直線對外擴展的一區域範圍內; 一發電量下降計算裝置,連接該發電量下降搜尋裝置,以計算該第二電廠與該第三電廠之一發電量下降損失比例; 一移動速度計算裝置,連接該發電量下降搜尋裝置與該太陽能管理系統,根據該第二電廠與該第三電廠之間的相對距離以及該第一時間區間與該第二時間區間的時間差,計算一雲層的移動速度; 一移動時間計算裝置,連接該移動速度計算裝置與該太陽能管理系統,根據該雲層的該移動速度,推算該雲層到達該第一電廠的一第三時間區間,其中該第三時間區間晚於該第二時間區間與該第一時間區間; 一發電計算裝置,連接該移動時間計算裝置與該發電量下降計算裝置,根據該第二電廠與該第三電廠之該發電量下降損失比例以及該第一電廠的一參考發電量,推算該第一電廠在該第三時間區間的發電量。A power generation prediction system for a solar power plant includes: a power generation declining search device connected to a solar energy management system, and searching a plurality of power plants around the first power plant in a database of the solar energy management system, Whether there is a second power plant in which a decline in power generation occurs in a first time interval, and whether there is a third power plant in which a decline in power generation occurs in a second time interval, wherein the second time interval is earlier than the first time interval, the The first power plant and the second power plant are connected to form an imaginary straight line, and the third power plant is located in an area expanded outward from the imaginary straight line; a power generation decline calculation device connected to the power generation decline search device to calculate the Proportion of loss in power generation reduction between the second power plant and one of the third power plants; a moving speed calculation device connecting the power generation reduction search device and the solar energy management system, according to the relative distance between the second power plant and the third power plant And a time difference between the first time interval and the second time interval to calculate a moving speed of a cloud layer; A movement time calculation device, which connects the movement speed calculation device and the solar energy management system, and estimates a third time interval when the cloud layer reaches the first power plant according to the movement speed of the cloud layer, wherein the third time interval is later than the A second time interval and the first time interval; a power generation calculation device connected between the mobile time calculation device and the power generation amount reduction calculation device, according to the ratio of the power generation amount reduction loss of the second power plant and the third power plant and the first A reference power generation amount of a power plant estimates the power generation amount of the first power plant in the third time interval. 如請求項6所述之太陽能電廠的發電預測系統,其中該些電廠的發電量係儲存於該太陽能管理系統的一資料庫中。The power generation prediction system for a solar power plant according to claim 6, wherein the power generation capacity of the power plants is stored in a database of the solar energy management system. 如請求項6所述之太陽能電廠的發電預測系統,其中該太陽能電廠的發電預測系統係為一電腦系統,並與該太陽能管理系統連接。The power generation prediction system of the solar power plant according to claim 6, wherein the power generation prediction system of the solar power plant is a computer system and is connected to the solar energy management system. 如請求項6所述之太陽能電廠的發電預測系統,其中該太陽能電廠的發電預測系統係安裝於該太陽能管理系統中。The power generation prediction system for a solar power plant according to claim 6, wherein the power generation prediction system for the solar power plant is installed in the solar energy management system. 如請求項6所述之太陽能電廠的發電預測系統,其中該移動速度計算裝置係根據該第二電廠與該第三電廠的座標以獲得該第二電廠與該第三電廠之間的該相對距離。The power generation prediction system for a solar power plant according to claim 6, wherein the moving speed calculation device is based on the coordinates of the second power plant and the third power plant to obtain the relative distance between the second power plant and the third power plant .
TW105140058A 2016-12-05 2016-12-05 Power generation prediction system and method for solar power plant TWI637332B (en)

Priority Applications (1)

Application Number Priority Date Filing Date Title
TW105140058A TWI637332B (en) 2016-12-05 2016-12-05 Power generation prediction system and method for solar power plant

Applications Claiming Priority (1)

Application Number Priority Date Filing Date Title
TW105140058A TWI637332B (en) 2016-12-05 2016-12-05 Power generation prediction system and method for solar power plant

Publications (2)

Publication Number Publication Date
TW201822079A true TW201822079A (en) 2018-06-16
TWI637332B TWI637332B (en) 2018-10-01

Family

ID=63258401

Family Applications (1)

Application Number Title Priority Date Filing Date
TW105140058A TWI637332B (en) 2016-12-05 2016-12-05 Power generation prediction system and method for solar power plant

Country Status (1)

Country Link
TW (1) TWI637332B (en)

Families Citing this family (1)

* Cited by examiner, † Cited by third party
Publication number Priority date Publication date Assignee Title
TWI726590B (en) 2019-01-30 2021-05-01 財團法人工業技術研究院 Charging and discharging device and charging and discharging method

Family Cites Families (3)

* Cited by examiner, † Cited by third party
Publication number Priority date Publication date Assignee Title
WO2011017323A1 (en) * 2009-08-05 2011-02-10 First Solar, Inc. Cloud tracking
US9955803B2 (en) * 2014-12-15 2018-05-01 Hussmann Corporation Door for a refrigerated merchandiser
TWI539739B (en) * 2015-06-25 2016-06-21 Method of estimating power generation of solar power plant

Also Published As

Publication number Publication date
TWI637332B (en) 2018-10-01

Similar Documents

Publication Publication Date Title
Si et al. Photovoltaic power forecast based on satellite images considering effects of solar position
Wu et al. Integrating solar PV (photovoltaics) in utility system operations: Analytical framework and Arizona case study
US10989839B1 (en) Ground-based sky imaging and irradiance prediction system
Schmidt et al. Short-term solar forecasting based on sky images to enable higher PV generation in remote electricity networks
US20140149038A1 (en) Solar irradiance measurement system and weather model incorporating results of such measurement
US20110276269A1 (en) Systems and methods for forecasting solar power
Lonij et al. Forecasts of PV power output using power measurements of 80 residential PV installs
JP2010186840A (en) Photovoltaic generation system
Dhimish et al. Estimating the impact of azimuth-angle variations on photovoltaic annual energy production
JP6685065B2 (en) Design support device for solar power generation equipment, design support method, design support program, and learned model creation device for design support
Nouri et al. Optimization of parabolic trough power plant operations in variable irradiance conditions using all sky imagers
KR102338515B1 (en) A System For Forecasting Solar Power Generation Based On Artificial Intelligence
Chung Estimating solar insolation and power generation of photovoltaic systems using previous day weather data
CN105335560A (en) Photovoltaic generation power volatility and automatic generation control reserve demand computing method thereof
Zhang et al. Investigating the correlation between wind and solar power forecast errors in the western interconnection
Gauché et al. Modeling dispatchability potential of CSP in South Africa
Dissawa et al. Cross-correlation based cloud motion estimation for short-term solar irradiation predictions
Yuldoshev et al. Modeling the operation of a 10 kW grid-tied photovoltaic power plant and its features
Julien et al. Hierarchical control of utility-scale solar PV plants for mitigation of generation variability and ancillary service provision
Alhmoud Why does the PV solar power plant operate ineffectively?
TW201822079A (en) Power production forecasting system for solar power plants and method thereof according to the movement speed of clouds, loss ratio of decreased power production and power produced by a power plant in history
WO2021188873A1 (en) Systems and methods for enhanced reactive power management in a hybrid environment
JP2019045462A (en) Apparatus for estimating photovoltaic power generation amount, and method therefor
US20200051182A1 (en) Dynamic energy consumption and harvesting with feedback
KR102284398B1 (en) An information acquiring apparatus for estimating generated photovoltaic power