KR20110073650A - Method for evaluating of investment analyst based on hitting ratio using on-line - Google Patents

Abstract

PURPOSE: A method for evaluating an investment analyst base on accuracy rate on online is provided to utilize an evaluate and quantified result as an index having meaning of investment activities by evaluating and quantifying a market analysis abilities of investment analyst. CONSTITUTION: A prediction stock price information is stored in a predictions stock price information database after a prediction stock price information is inputted from an authenticated investment analyst terminal(a). A result stock price information is stored in the result stock price information after the result stock price is inputted from an operator terminal(b). By using an accuracy rate quantification program, the prediction information of a stock price and result information of a stock price are compared(c).

Description

Method for evaluating of investment analyst based on hitting ratio using on-line}

The present invention relates to a method and system for evaluating an investment analyst based on a hit ratio, and provides analysts, that is, analysts' forecasts and stock prices predicted by individual analysts before the market opens in order to provide objective information on their ability to predict short-term stock prices. This study relates to investment analyst valuation method and system based on the hit ratio, which enables the objective evaluation of investment analysts' stock price prediction and analysis ability by calculating the hit ratio of investment analysts by comparing the stock price after the closing.

In general, the Internet consists of a large number of computers and computer networks that interconnect these computers through communication links, which are interconnected by various services, such as e-mail, gopher, and the World Wide Web (WWW). To exchange information. The World Wide Web allows a server computer system (eg a web server or website) to send graphical web pages of information to a remote client computer system. Such a remote client computer system may display a web page of various screens received from a server computer.

Recently, as various networks and the Internet have made rapid progress, technologies are being developed to provide various services online which users have received offline in cyberspace.

Among these online services, a leap forward from the previous order-order era is an online stock trading service capable of real-time stock trading. Online trading is now commonplace and used by more users than on-demand ordering. As online trading becomes more common on the Internet, securities companies are operating sites for online trading.

In particular, various securities related information and knowledge provided by online securities trading service or securities related portal sites are collected and analyzed by investment analysts and are provided as advanced information to securities trading customers. In other words, investment analysts can provide market-specific information, market forecasts, economic forecasts, economic indicators, stocks, bonds, A person who collects and analyzes information such as the prospects of other investment instruments, data on stock trading volume, financial position, past performance and outlook for an individual company. These investment analysts are generally referred to as those in the securities industry, but the cyber panel, which collects and analyzes stock-related information from various online securities sites and portal sites, and provides opinions on the analysis, as well as the general public. One of the categories of analysts.

In the traditional online securities trading service, however, investment analysts are constantly conducting activities such as collecting and processing securities information and presenting opinions on analysis.

First, there is no objective measure or indicator for the existing investment analysts' ability to predict stock prices. It is difficult for general investors to decide which investment analysts' analysis or predictions should be consulted among the opinions of many investment analysts, and even more difficult to determine how much to trust the opinions of investment analysts that general investors have encountered. .

 In particular, as the stock market has a number of domestic and foreign situation variables and a number of issues linked to each other, it affects the stock prices of individual companies. The confusion will be great indeed.

Moreover, most market analysis information or individual stock quotes from securities firms and investment analysts do not have specificity. Most of the investment direction is about 'the stock price of semiconductor stocks is high' or 'there is more cash holding than buying stocks'. Little information is available on how high the upside is, and how much it is expected to fall if it is expected to fall.

Therefore, for general investors who do not have knowledge of stock investment or lack the ability to acquire and analyze information related to investments, there are indicators or guidelines on how much of the investment analysts should take their opinions. It is a desperate situation.

Second, there is no data on how the analysts' analysis information coincided with the closing stock price. Although investment analysts provide numerous opinions and forecasts every day, there is no 'validation system' as there is no feedback process on how closely they matched the actual stock price. There is a lot of analytical information coming from many investment analysts at various sites, but there is no way to objectively assess whether the analysis was accurate or incorrect later, and of course the data is not backed up.

For example, leading analysts working on securities-related sites recommend stocks and advise them on which line to buy and which line to sell, but the data is not evaluated as objective data.

Third, there is a problem that investment analysts do not incentivize their analysis because there is no system to authorize or provide incentives for their capabilities even though they have done accurate investment analysis.

Fourth, despite the fact that the cyber panel and the general public who are active online have sufficient investment analyst capability or excellent ability to analyze and forecast individual stocks, there is no system to verify or discover them. There is a problem that it is difficult to find or nurture a good investment analyst.

The purpose of the present invention for solving the above problems, by evaluating and quantifying the market analysis capabilities of the investment analysts can be used as a meaningful indicator in investment activities in accordance with the needs of the general investors, and predicted by the investment analysts By feeding the information back to the stock price information, it stimulates the analysts' desire to improve their analytical ability, and provides the general public with the opportunity to act and be verified as an investment analyst. To provide a method and system for evaluating investment analysts.

In addition, another object of the present invention is to enable users to quickly receive the forecast information of investment analysts objectively evaluated in relation to investment activities, such as stocks, futures, options, etc., so that operators can refer to such investment activities. You can receive a fee for providing investment information from those who want to receive useful information. By sharing or distributing the fee with investment analysts, you can stimulate investment analysts to pursue more accurate analysis and create new profit structure and multilateral profits. To provide a method and system for evaluating investment analysts using networks.

The method according to the present invention for achieving the above object,

In the investment analyst evaluation method for evaluating the investment analyst with a user terminal, an investment analyst terminal, an operator terminal and a server computer connected through a network, including at least one mobile terminal, a laptop, a personal computer, etc.

The server computer is composed of a control unit for controlling a program and a database for storing various information,

The controller may include a user authentication program for authenticating a user, an investment analyst certification program for authenticating an investment analyst, a prediction stock information input program for receiving prediction stock price information and analysis basis data corresponding to the prediction basis from the investment analyst terminal, and a result. The result of receiving stock price information The stock price input program and the predicted stock price information are compared with the resulting stock price information to determine whether or not a close hit ratio, which indicates the closeness of the predicted stock price and the resulting stock price, for each investment analyst and whether the forecasted stock price rises or falls down. Hit ratio determined based on the fluctuation hit ratio, which is calculated based on the fluctuation hit ratio, is used to quantify the hit ratio for each investment analyst. Subtract Including a hit rate digitizing program to quantify the hit rate,

The database may include a user authentication information database in which user authentication information is stored, an investment analyst authentication information database in which investment analyst authentication information is stored, a predicted stock price information database in which forecast stock price information is stored, a result stock price information database in which result stock price information is stored, Includes a database of quantitative hit rate information by investment analysts, in which quantitative evaluation information by investment analysts is stored.

(a) receiving prediction stock price information from the investment analyst terminal certified by the investment analyst certification program and storing the prediction stock price information in the prediction stock information database;

(b) receiving result stock price information from the operator terminal and storing the result stock price information in the result stock price information database;

(c) comparing the predicted stock price information with the resulted stock price information by the hit rate digitizing program to indicate whether a close hit ratio indicating the closeness of the predicted stock price and the resulting stock price by investment analyst, and indicating whether the forecasted stock price and the resulting stock price coincide with each other; Calculating a hit rate determined based on a rise hit rate and storing the hit rate in a hit rate digitizing database; And

(d) transmitting the investment analyst's forecast stock price to the user terminal authenticated by the user authentication program in the order of the investment analyst having the highest hit ratio using the hit ratio quantification information and the forecast stock price information for each investment analyst; Characterized in that comprises a.

In addition, the database,

A stock price fluctuation information database for grouping the predicted stocks into a plurality of different groups based on the stock price fluctuations for a certain period and storing the results;

The hit ratio digitization program,

When there is a stock price prediction for a particular stock, it is also possible to refer to the stock price fluctuation information database to determine a close hit ratio by reflecting the weighted score assigned to the group to which the stock belongs.

In addition, the hit ratio numerical program,

The hit ratio and rank of the investment analyst can be determined by calculating the group.

In addition, the hit ratio numerical program,

If the stock price rises or falls as a result of the day's closing price due to the forecast of the stock price rising or falling, it is possible to quantify it and manage it separately as the rate of rise and fall.

The control unit may further include a hit ratio cumulative evaluation program for evaluating investment analysts by accumulating hit rate quantification information for each investment analyst,

The database further includes a hit ratio cumulative evaluation information database for storing the hit ratio cumulative evaluation information for each investment analyst,

and (e) transmitting, by the hit rate accumulation evaluation program, the hit rate accumulation evaluation information for each investment analyst that accumulates the hit rate quantification information for each investment analyst to the user terminal certified by the user authentication program. desirable.

The control unit may further include a hit rate ranking program for calculating a rank based on hit rate accumulated evaluation information for each period,

The database further includes a hit ratio ranking information database for storing the hit ratio ranking information for each period,

(f) transmitting, by the hit rate ranking program, the hit rate ranking information calculated by the hit rate cumulative evaluation information to the user terminal authenticated by the user authentication program; It is preferred to further comprise a.

In addition, the hit rate ranking program, and displays the specific investment analyst information according to the ranking,

The control unit may further include a profit distribution program for differentially distributing profits according to the ranking of the hit ratio ranking information.

(g) differentially displaying specific investment analyst information according to the ranking of the hit ratio ranking information and calculating profit distribution information so that a high profit distribution can be paid to a high ranking investment analyst by the profit distribution program; It is also possible to include more.

In addition, it is more preferable that the hit rate digitizing program calculates the hit rate data for a predetermined period from the current day in a first-in first-out manner.

As described above, according to the method of evaluating the investment analyst using the network of the present invention, the analytical ability of the investment analysts can be objectively quantified and evaluated according to the actual needs of the investor, and the investment is made through the objective comparison system. Enhancing analytical competence by inducing competition among analysts, cultivating excellent investment analysts who are objectively proven, and providing users with advanced forecasting stock price information of investment analysts with proven analytical capabilities. The operator has the effect of inducing investment analysts to provide more accurate investment information by distributing or sharing the fee with users from the users.

Hereinafter, a method for evaluating an investment analyst using a network according to an exemplary embodiment of the present invention and a system for performing the method will be described in detail with reference to the accompanying drawings.

First, as shown in FIG. 1, a system for evaluating an investment analyst using a network according to an exemplary embodiment of the present invention includes a user terminal 10, an investment analyst terminal 20, and an operator terminal 30. And a server computer 50 connected to these and various wired / wireless networks 40.

Here, the user terminal 10 wants to know the forecast stock price of the investment analyst, the hit ratio quantification information for each investment analyst, the cumulative hit ratio evaluation information, and the hit ratio ranking evaluation information, and through this information, accurate and reliable It is a terminal that includes mobile terminals, laptops, personal computers, etc. of individuals and organizations or companies that want to conduct investment activities with the advice of investment analysts.

In addition, the investment analyst terminal 20, to provide the user with a predicted share price through their analysis, through which individuals and organizations that want to receive information fees from a number of users or dividends from the operator or It is a terminal including a company's mobile terminal, laptop, personal computer.

In addition, the operator terminal 30 operates the server computer 50, connects the user and the investment analyst to each other, receives information usage fees from the users, and evaluates the investment analyst to allocate profits to excellent investment analysts. A terminal of an individual, an enterprise, or an operator of a server computer 50.

Meanwhile, the server computer 50 may include various controllers and databases for evaluating the investment analyst, and may store various types of information about the user and the investment analyst in a database stored in the server computer 50. It is a computer of a company that conducts a method of evaluating an investment analyst using a network that provides users with information that can be referred to as an investment-related indicator and gives an investment analyst honor and profit according to the hit ratio ranking. . The server computer 50, the user terminal 10, the investment analyst terminal 20, and the operator terminal 30 are connected to each other by wire or wirelessly through the network 40.

In addition, the user terminal 10, the investment analyst terminal 20, the operator terminal 30, and the server computer 50 connected to the network 40 may be connected to a telephone network such as ARS, HTML, XML, or the like. Internet browsers (Netscape, Internet Explorer, etc.) that can display the web content in the form of, etc., or a mobile browser that can display text, numeric video, etc. on the screen of the mobile phone.

On the other hand, the server computer 50 is composed of a controller and various information, as well as a storage and arithmetic processor necessary for realizing a method for evaluating an investment analyst using a network according to the present invention. It is equipped with a database.

Here, the control unit, which is composed of several programs, including the main program 51 for operating the entire program, the user authentication program 52 for authenticating the user, the investment analyst certification program 53 for authenticating the investment analyst The forecasted stock price input program 54 receives the predicted stock price and the basis of the stock price forecast, the resulting stock price information input program 55 receives the stock price information, and compares the predicted stock price with the stock price information. Hit rate quantifying program (56) to quantify, hit rate cumulative evaluation program (57) to evaluate investment analysts by accumulating hit rate quantification information for each investment analyst, and hit rate ranking program (58) to calculate hit rate rankings based on hit rate cumulative evaluation information for each period (58). ), A profit distribution for differentially distributing profits according to the ranking of the hit ratio ranking information. Program 59 and the like. For example, the basis of the stock price prediction may predict what the stock price of the company will be based on high-level information about the company, information obtained by visiting the company, financial statements, or information obtained from the media. In addition, the ranking calculated by the hit rate ranking program 58 is used to determine the exposure ranking in order to display the individual analysts' stock price predictions sequentially from the top to the bottom on the portal site or the operator's securities related web page. .

Here, the hit ratio ranking program 58 is capable of differentially displaying specific investment analyst information according to the ranking.

The database may include a user authentication information database 61 in which user authentication information is stored, an investment analyst authentication information database 62 in which investment analyst authentication information is stored, and a prediction stock price information database 63 in which an investment analyst's prediction stock price is stored. ), A stock price information database (64) where the result stock price information is stored; A database 66, a hit rate ranking information database 67 that stores hit rate ranking information for each period, a stock price fluctuation range information database 68, and the like.

The database may further include various management and service information databases for executing various real-time or periodic updates of various databases and storing various information for performing various portal services for users, investment analysts, and operators.

Here, the user authentication information and investment analyst authentication information, may include at least a variety of authentication information, such as name, date of birth, social security number, contact information (phone number / mobile phone), password, member number.

In addition, the forecast stock price, along with the current stock price of an individual stock, includes forecast stock prices (e.g., an increase or decrease in the expected transaction price or percentage of the stock), descriptive information (e.g., why Various types of forecast stocks and explanations, such as the reason for the decline), and the reasoning (eg, the basis of the stock price analysis).

The server computer 50 having the various programs and various information includes a control unit and a database to provide a user, an investment analyst, and an operator with a voice call or a text service on a network 40 such as a wired / wireless telephone network or a wired / wireless internet. , Still images, video services, websites, portal sites, etc. are implemented.

In addition, the server computer 50 may receive the forecast stock price from the investment analyst terminal and compare the result with the stock price information to transmit hit rate numerical evaluation information for each investment analyst to the user terminal.

Therefore, the method of evaluating the investment analyst using the system for evaluating the investment analyst using the network of the present invention of FIG. 1 is, as shown in FIG. Configuring a server computer 50, (a) receiving a forecast stock price from the investment analyst terminal certified by the investment analyst certification program and storing the forecast stock price in the forecast stock information database; and (b) the result from the operator terminal. Receiving stock price information and storing the result in the stock price information database; and (c) the hit ratio for each investment analyst by which the hit ratio for each investigator is numerically calculated according to the degree of proximity by comparing the predicted stock price and the resulting stock price information by the hit ratio numerical program. Storing the digitization information in the hit ratio quantization information database for each investment analyst (D) transmitting the hit rate quantification information for each investment analyst to the user terminal certified by the user authentication program, and (e) accumulating hit rate quantification information for each investment analyst by the hit rate accumulation evaluation program. Transmitting the cumulative evaluation information for each investment analyst to the user terminal authenticated by the user authentication program, and (f) hit rate ranking information for calculating the ranking by the hit ratio cumulative evaluation information by the hit rate ranking program. Transmitting to the user terminal authenticated by the user authentication program; and (g) differentially displaying specific investment analyst information according to the ranking of the hit ratio ranking information, and giving a high ranking to an investment analyst having a high ranking by the profit distribution program. Profit distribution information so that you can pay It is preferable to include the step of calculating.

Meanwhile, the predicted stock price input program 54 receives a predicted stock price from the investment analyst terminal and stores the predicted stock price and transmits the forecasted stock price to the user terminal.

In addition, the result stock information input program 55 performs a series of processes for receiving the result stock price information from the operator terminal or a stock price information service company (supplier).

In addition, the hit rate digitizing program 56 compares the above-described predicted stock price information with the resulting stock price information, and performs a series of processes that give higher scores for each investment analyst as the predicted stock price information approaches the resulting stock price information.

In addition, the cumulative hit ratio evaluation program 57 performs a series of processes for evaluating the investment analyst by accumulating the above-mentioned hit rate quantification information for each investment analyst by period or sector, for example, A in an oil-related field. It is to calculate the hit rate of the analyst (investment analyst) in the last 90 days.

In addition, the hit rate ranking program 58 performs a series of processes for calculating a rank based on the hit rate cumulative evaluation information for each period. For example, an investment analyst A in the oil-related field hits the hit rate in the last 90 days. It is to calculate the rank of the total investment analysts.

In addition, the profit distribution program 59 performs a series of processes for differentially distributing profits such as giving a profit determined according to the ranking of the hit ratio ranking information. Financial resources for distributing profits can be obtained by, for example, receiving a monthly fee or an information fee for accessing individual stock price forecast information from users who subscribe to a site or portal site that provides securities related information. Alternatively, in a portal site according to the present invention, a link to a stock trading site for trading the individual stock in a predetermined area of a web page that provides a prediction result for the individual stock price, and the investor visits the stock trading site through the portal site It is also possible to raise funds by identifying whether the user is connected to the securities trading site through the portal site and providing a portion of the securities transaction fee to the portal site operator. Of course, there should be an agreement between the portal site operator and the securities trading site about what percentage of securities trading fees will be distributed. According to the above method, it will act as a cyber trading dealer for investors who want to buy and sell stocks based on the forecast stock price.

Thus, it enables users to quickly receive advanced analyst stock quotes, operators can receive fees from users, and analysts are paid for the right investment analysis to inspire more accurate analysis. We can create new revenue structures and multilateral benefits that benefit everyone.

An example of a method of evaluating an investment analyst using the network of the present invention will be described in more detail. As shown in FIG. 3, an investment analyst first performs a method of evaluating an investment analyst using the network of the present invention. The investigator is authenticated by accessing the server computer (S13), and accesses the site related to the stock price (S14). Subsequently, the investment analyst confirms the input window of the individual forecast stock price by investment analyst as shown in FIG. 4. In the input window, the closing price of the previous day is displayed together, and the investment analyst may input the rate of rise or fall price predicted for the specific stocks in the input window and input the reasoning for this. The reasoning for the stock price prediction is not only the input of the forecast of related stocks, but also the prediction of the stock based on the contents of the discovery, management, and collection.

In addition, as shown in FIG. 5, when the stock price of A Co., Ltd. oil is predicted to increase by "+ 6%" and is entered in the change rate input column, the predicted stock price may be automatically calculated compared to the previous day's closing price. By entering the forecast stock price for B trade, the rate of change can be automatically calculated compared to the previous day's closing price. In other words, even if an investor inputs' up to $ 11,000 'for a stock traded at $ 10,000, this can be converted into a forecast of '10% up'. It is possible to program by converting it into '10, 000 won '.

In this way, the investment analyst checks whether there is a prediction price (S16), and if the forecast price information is provided, the user may be able to provide the forecast price for each investment analyst. Subsequently, the investment analyst can check the information of the investor or another investment analyst through the site (S17), check the profit distribution information (S18), and ask whether or not to proceed (S19).

Meanwhile, the operator receives the operator certification (S20) and accesses the portal site or the operator site (S21), and provides the resulting stock price information so as to determine how accurate the predicted stock price of the investment analysts is (S22). As will be appreciated by those skilled in the art, the resulting stock price information may be designed to automatically receive data by computer programming. Subsequently, the operator can check the information of the other investment analysts (S23), check the profit distribution information, and ask whether or not to proceed (S24).

On the other hand, it is hoped that the user accesses the server computer performing the method of evaluating the investment analyst using the network of the present invention, authenticates the user (S1), and accesses the site related to the stock price (S2) to confirm the predicted stock price. (S4), the stock price forecast by investment analyst is provided (S5). According to the present invention, the investment analyst's predicted stock price is transmitted to the user terminal in the order of the investment analysts having the highest hit ratio based on the hit ratio of each investment analyst.

To this end, according to the present invention, the predicted stock price information is received from the investment analyst terminal through the process described above, and compared with the resulting stock price information provided through the step "S22" to indicate the degree of proximity between the predicted stock price and the resulting stock price for each analyst. The hit ratio, which is determined based on the close hit ratio, the rise and fall rate indicating whether the predicted share price and the rise or fall of the result share price coincide, is calculated and stored in the hit rate digitization database.

First, the process of calculating the proximity hit ratio will be described.

An investment analyst, A, predicted a 5% rise in a stock, and if the result was a 5% rise, A's proximity hit would be 100%. If A's share price rises 8% for investment analyst A's 5% rise, then the close hit ratio is calculated at 90%. This means that when the error between the predicted value and the result value is 0, the proximity hit ratio is 100%. On the contrary, when the error between the predicted value and the result value is 1 (100%), the proximity hit ratio becomes 0%. Since the maximum variation range is + 15% to -15% and the maximum error range is 30%, the 'close hit ratio' actually occurs compared to the maximum fluctuation range (30%) of the day at a value of "1" where the prediction error is zero (hit ratio 100%). It can be calculated by subtracting the predicted error value (the absolute value of [Result-Predicted Value]).

Thus, if A's stock price closed at '8% rise' for A analyst's forecast of '5% rise', then the 'hit ratio' is 1- (3/30) = 1- (1/10) = 1- 0.1 = 0.9 = 90%. In other words, by subtracting the calculated value of predicted deviation from probability 1 when 100% of perfect hits are obtained, it is possible to determine how close the target value is.

First, as a forecast using percentage (%), for example, investment analyst A predicted that the stock price would be + 5% (KRW 1050) for an item with a stock price of KRW1000, and the resulting price would be + 10% (1100). Won), the deviation (error) of the result (+ 10%) compared to the forecast (+ 5%) is 5% (50 won), so that the close hit ratio of investment analyst A is 1-[10-5] / 30 = 0.8333, that is, 83.33%.

Or, if the stock price (KRW) is used for forecasting, the fluctuation that can fluctuate per day in the Korean stock market is limited to a maximum of 1150 to a minimum of 850. Value) is 300 won (30%), and in the example above, A is estimated to be 1050 won. As a result, the forecasted deviation (molecular value) is 50 won (5%), so the analyst's close hit ratio is 1-[1100-1050] / 300 = 0.8333 (83.33%) can be calculated equally.

Based on the same principle, if analyst B predicted the same day's forecast as -5% or $ 950, in this case, the comparison would be 1100-950 = $ 150 (15%) based on the result of $ 1100 (+ 10%). Since the absolute deviation (error) of, the hit ratio at this time is 1- [absolute value of "1100-950"] / 300 = 0.5 or 1- [absolute value of "10-(-5)"] / 30 = 0.5 , That is, hit rate of 50%.

In the end, the 'close proximity ratio' is used to predict or forecast the fluctuation of a particular stock, and calculates the probability that the forecast price is close to the result stock price that is the day's closing price. When the deviation between the forecast price and the result price is '0' If the hit rate is 100% and the deviation between the predicted value and the result is 'maximum', it would be desirable to set the hit rate to 0%.

In Korea, although the maximum fluctuation of the stock market is 30%, the maximum fluctuation allowed by the stock market is different for each country, so different denominator values (maximum fluctuations in which the predicted value can move) can be applied.

On the other hand, providing investors with only a close hit ratio could lead to an absolute error. For example, investor A predicted a -2% drop and investor B predicted a + 6% increase. If the result shows that the share price rose + 2%, the two analysts' 'close proximity' rates are the same. This is because the absolute deviation value from the reference value is the same at 4%.

In this case, however, the investor's position can never evaluate A with an upside and B wrong with a downside. In the stock market as well as the futures and options markets, huge profits and losses depend on the rising and falling of investment items, so even if the absolute value of the forecasting error is the same, the results of the investment will be quite contradictory depending on whether the stock price rises or falls. Can be. Therefore, for investors, understanding how the analyst's forecasts for the rise or fall match the actual fluctuation results is also a very important factor in investment judgment. This is defined as the rate of rise and fall.

In the present invention, it should be noted that the hit ratio is determined based on the up and down hit ratio, which indicates whether the predicted share price and the resulting share price rise or fall. For example, when the stock price rises or falls as a result of the prediction of the stock price information rising or falling, the hit ratio may be determined by adding or subtracting the adjacent stock rate at a predetermined rate. FIG. 6 is a view illustrating a preferred example of calculating a hit ratio by reflecting a close hit ratio and a rise hit ratio by a method according to the present invention. Referring to FIG. 6, when the investment analyst A predicts the "-2% drop" and the investment investment B predicts the "+ 6% increase" and the closing price of the next day's closing price is "+ 2% increase", The close hit rate, which is determined by the difference between the stock price and the resulting stock price, is calculated equally, but investment analyst A predicted a fall, investment analyst B predicted a rise, and the result ended the share price. Because the forecast was successful, the forecast hit ratio of Investment A and Analyst B is the same, but it is subtracted by the ratio of the hit ratio of Investment Analyst A to the ratio of the hit of Analyst B and the percentage of hits of the Investment Analyst B is added to the ratio so that the final hit ratio is B. The investment analyst is estimated to be higher than that of the investment analyst. Thus, the calculation of how much the investment analyst's forecasts for the rise or fall corresponded with the actual fluctuation results is included in the calculation of the hit ratio, so that the investment investor can meet the needs of the general investor more perfectly.

Alternatively, the investment analyst may calculate how many times the forecast and the resulting share price fluctuated for the rise or fall forecast, and quantify it as a separate rise and fall rate and present it separately to the user.

After all, the concept of 'hit rate' which the present invention intends to represent includes 'close hit rate' indicating the proximity of the stock price forecast and 'falling hit rate' indicating the degree of agreement with the fluctuation prediction. It is also possible to present the 'hit rate' separately and to add or subtract 'hit rate' against 'close hit rate' as an integrated 'hit rate'.

According to the above process, the hit ratio for each investment analyst is calculated and stored in the hit rate digitization information database, and the rank is determined and stored in the rank evaluation information database. Now, with reference to the ranking information database, the investment analyst's forecasted stock price may be transmitted to the user terminal in the order of the investment analysts having the highest hit ratios based on the hit ratio for each investment analyst.

FIG. 7 shows an example of a screen displaying predicted stocks in order of investment analysts with the highest hit rates for many companies in the trade sector, for example. Referring to FIG. 7, the stock price prediction of the investment analyst 702 having the highest hit rate is displayed at the top. On the other hand, the stock price forecast of the investment analyst 704 with a relatively low hit rate is displayed below.

Investment analysts, on the other hand, tend to maintain high hit rates, which represent their market analysis capabilities. Such efforts may be intended to maintain a high hit rate by not analyzing any more after the hit rate is increased among the objectives and investment analysts of the present invention. In order to compensate for this, it is more preferable to calculate the hit rate using only hit rate data for a certain period from the current day, and to calculate the previous data in a so-called first-in-first-out manner so that the hit rate is not calculated. Therefore, according to the present invention, the hit ratio of an individual investment analyst is calculated on a first-in first-out basis using only hit ratio data for a predetermined period of time, for example, 90 days from the present day.

In addition, when the user wants to check the result stock price (S6), the forecast price information of investment analysts is provided (S7) together with the result price that is the previous day's closing price. In addition, when the user wants to check the hit rate quantification information by investment analysts (S8), it is possible to check the hit ratio quantification information by investment analysts for a particular company's individual stocks (S9), and the cumulative evaluation rate and ranking information by investment analysts If you want to check the evaluation information (S10). Investment analysts can be provided with the cumulative evaluation rate of the hit ratio information and hit ratio ranking information (S11), and asks whether or not to proceed (S12) can continue the series of processes described above.

The site displaying the hit ratio may be a portal site as described in the above embodiments, but may be a site that collects and displays the hit ratio of the investment analysts.

Here, the investment rating ranking information for each investment analyst, may be provided according to various classifications, such as by sector, period, company, country.

On the other hand, in the above embodiment, by comparing the predicted stock price and the resulting stock price information by the hit rate digitizing program, storing the hit ratio numerical information for each investment analyst in the hit ratio numerical information database for each investment analyst, the hit ratio of each investment analyst according to the proximity level Performing is described by way of example.

Generally, however, stock prices and spot prices often show relatively small changes rather than soaring or plunging before special issues arise. There is an advantageous side to heightening. As a result, even if the same stock is the same stock, the analyst may not be able to offer an opinion at a time when the stock price fluctuates largely, or select only the stocks with small fluctuations in the stock price.

In order to solve this problem, according to another exemplary embodiment of the present invention, the predicted stock price is compared with a result stock price that is the closing price of the day, but is calculated by applying a larger weight to a section in which the variation ratio of the predicted stock price is larger.

FIG. 9 is a diagram illustrating an example in which a larger weight is applied to a section in which a variation ratio of a forecast stock is larger in a method for evaluating an investment analyst using a network according to the present invention. Referring to FIG. 9, the prediction stock price is subdivided into several sections, and the larger the weight is applied to the section in which the change ratio is larger. Larger weights are applied to intervals with large rates of change, and smaller weights are applied to intervals with smaller rates of variation.

For example, in the interval 902 where the prediction price is predicted to rise by 10%, the weight is doubled (904). Predicting that the stock price movement will be about 10% in the future for stocks with a 3% movement in the stock market is an investment analyst's risk of hitting it significantly. When it is correct, it is desirable to give additional points or weights. In such an embodiment, an investment analyst who makes an aggressive prediction can secure investment analysts with various characteristics by allowing their ability to be sufficiently evaluated as well as an investment analyst who makes a passive forecast.

However, the prediction complementary method as shown in FIG. 9 may cause a problem of causing a gambling analysis rather than an accurate analysis because a high hit ratio score is received when the prediction value of a stock with a large fluctuation in price is hit.

Therefore, in order to compensate for this, FIG. 9 is a diagram illustrating an embodiment of storing stock price fluctuation information. Referring to FIG. 9, for example, stock prices of 20 days are stored for each stock, and the average value of the absolute value of the fluctuation is calculated. Grouped into a second group representing an amplitude in the% range, a third group representing an amplitude in the 5-10% range, and a fourth group representing a large amplitude in the 10-15% range and stored in the stock price fluctuation information database 68. .

This is because most stocks listed on the stock market generally reflect good or bad news that they meet irregularly, and the ability to accurately predict and forecast these trends is the difference in the ability of investment analysts. Grouping according to the amplitude of is preferable.

For example, the stock of 'A Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd.' belongs to the first group without any special issues, but when the issue of 'Swine Flu emerges', the amplitude of the 20-day period starts to increase and the second group If the issue of 'Swine Flu' is met, the stock price moves even further and it is incorporated into the third or fourth group. Afterwards, when the spread of the swine flu calmed down, the shares of A Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd. will be incorporated into the second group as the stock price in the third or fourth group to which they belong, and the swine flu was almost resolved. At this point, the stock price fluctuates and returns to the first group as usual.

At this time, as shown in Fig. 10, the hit rate quantification program refers to the stock price fluctuation information database 68 of 'A Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd.', referring to which group this stock currently belongs to. If the variation is large, the weight of the corresponding group is differentially added to calculate the hit ratio. Alternatively, the investment analyst's analytical abilities can be presented in terms of group hit ratio and group ranking. For example, an investment analyst, A, has a 70% hit on Group 1 stocks (10th in the group), 87% hit on Group 2 stocks (4th in the group), and 3 hits on Group 3 stocks. 56% (27th in the group).

In addition, the present invention focuses on the hit rate for predicting individual stock prices may be very irregular. To this end, more preferably, in the method for evaluating the investment analyst using the network according to the present invention, the hit ratio ranking program displays the trend of the hit ratio of the investment analyst as a graph. This graph allows users to infer investment analysts' recent hit trends. It is to be used as a reference for judging whether the hit rate is in an upturn or a downturn.

Through the above steps, the operator can receive the user fee while providing the user with advanced evaluation data on the investment analyst, and the user can confidently predict the stock price through accurate analysis of the investment analyst verified by the past data. Investment analysts can earn high rankings, receive big dividends, and be honored as excellent investment analysts, as well as greatly expand their influence on the stock market and have high hit rates. Even the public can have a chance to be recognized as an official investment analyst by being highly recognized by a company or industry, and by accumulating the experience of failure and success of investment analysts, it can lead to the improvement of the quality level of all elements in the stock market. have.

Such a present invention is not limited to the above-described embodiments, and of course, modifications can be made by those skilled in the art without departing from the spirit of the present invention.

In addition, the method according to the present invention is equally applicable to the stock market as well as to the specialty futures trading market such as the futures and options market and the carbon credit trading market, and to the actual market such as grain, gold, semiconductor spot market or oil spot market. It is possible to apply to the spot market. 11 is a screen illustrating an example in which the method according to the present invention is applied to a semiconductor spot market. Referring to FIG. 11, the price predicted by the spot investment analyst with high hit rate is displayed at the top.

Therefore, the scope of the claims in the present invention will not be defined within the scope of the detailed description, but will be defined by the following claims and their technical spirit.

1 is a conceptual diagram illustrating a system for evaluating an investment analyst using a network according to an exemplary embodiment of the present invention.

2 is a block diagram illustrating a method for evaluating an investment analyst using the network of the present invention.

3 is a flow chart showing a preferred embodiment of FIG.

4 is a screen illustrating an example of a window for inputting individual forecast stock prices provided to an investment analyst computer in a system for evaluating an investment analyst using a network according to an exemplary embodiment of the present invention.

FIG. 5 is a diagram for explaining that another input may be automatically calculated when the input window of FIG. 4 inputs a rising / falling rate input or a predictive stock price input.

6 is a view for explaining a preferred example of calculating the hit ratio by reflecting the close hit rate and the rising and falling hit rate by the method according to the present invention,

FIG. 7 is a screen illustrating an example in which individual forecast stocks are displayed in order of investment analysts having a high hit ratio as provided to a user computer in a system for evaluating an investment analyst using a network according to an exemplary embodiment of the present invention.

FIG. 7 is a screen illustrating an example of result stock price information and hit rate quantification information for each investment analyst provided in a system for evaluating an investment analyst using a network according to an exemplary embodiment of FIG. 5.

8 is a view for explaining an embodiment in which a larger weight is applied to a section in which a variation ratio of a forecast stock is larger in a method for evaluating an investment analyst using a network according to the present invention.

9 is a view for explaining an embodiment of storing stock price fluctuation information in the stock price fluctuation information database 68;

10 is a view for explaining a process of reflecting a weighted score on a hit ratio by referring to which group with reference to the stock price fluctuation information database 68, and

11 is a screen for explaining an example in which the method according to the present invention is applied to a spot market.

Claims (9)

In the investment analyst evaluation method for evaluating the investment analyst with a user terminal including at least one mobile terminal, a laptop, a personal computer, an investment analyst terminal, an operator terminal and a server computer connected through a network, The server computer is composed of a control unit for controlling a program and a database for storing various information, The controller may include a user authentication program for authenticating a user, an investment analyst certification program for authenticating an investment analyst, a prediction stock information input program for receiving prediction stock price information and analysis basis data corresponding to the prediction basis from the investment analyst terminal, and a result. The result of receiving stock price information The stock price input program and the predicted stock price information are compared with the resulting stock price information to determine whether or not a close hit ratio, which indicates the closeness of the predicted stock price and the resulting stock price, for each investment analyst and whether the forecasted stock price rises or falls down. Hit ratio determined based on the fluctuation hit ratio, which is calculated based on the fluctuation hit ratio, is used to quantify the hit ratio for each investment analyst. Subtract Including a hit rate digitizing program to quantify the hit rate, The database may include a user authentication information database in which user authentication information is stored, an investment analyst authentication information database in which investment analyst authentication information is stored, a prediction stock price information database in which forecast stock price information is stored, and a result stock price information database in which result stock price information is stored; Includes a database of quantitative hit rate information by investment analysts, in which quantitative evaluation information by investment analysts is stored. (a) receiving prediction stock price information from the investment analyst terminal certified by the investment analyst certification program and storing the prediction stock price information in the prediction stock information database; (b) receiving result stock price information from the operator terminal and storing the result stock price information in the result stock price information database; (c) comparing the predicted stock price information with the resulted stock price information by the hit rate digitizing program to indicate whether a close hit ratio indicating the closeness of the predicted stock price and the resulting stock price by investment analyst, and indicating whether the forecasted stock price and the resulting stock price coincide with each other; Calculating a hit rate determined based on a rise hit rate and storing the hit rate in a hit rate digitizing database; And (d) transmitting the investment analyst's forecast stock price to the user terminal authenticated by the user authentication program in the order of the investment analyst having the highest hit ratio using the hit ratio quantification information and the forecast stock price information for each investment analyst; Method of evaluating the investment analyst based on the hit ratio, characterized in that comprises a. The method of claim 1, wherein the database, And a stock price fluctuation information database for grouping the predicted stocks into a plurality of different groups based on the stock price fluctuations for a certain period and storing the results. The hit ratio digitization program, In case there is a stock price forecast for a particular stock, the analyst analyzes the hit ratio based on the hit ratio, which is based on the weighted score given to the group to which the stock belongs. Way. The method of claim 2, wherein the hit ratio numerical program, The hit ratio and rank of the investment analyst is calculated by calculating the group, the method of evaluating the investment analyst based on the hit ratio. The method of claim 1, wherein the hit ratio numerical program, A method of evaluating an investment analyst based on a hit ratio, characterized in that if the stock price rises or falls as a result of the day's closing price due to the prediction of the stock price rising or falling, it is quantified and separately managed as a fluctuation rate. The method of claim 1, The control unit further includes a hit ratio cumulative evaluation program for evaluating the investment analyst by accumulating the hit ratio numerical information for each investment analyst, The database further includes a hit ratio cumulative evaluation information database for storing the cumulative rating information for each investment analyst, and (e) transmitting, to the user terminal certified by the user authentication program, the hit ratio cumulative evaluation information for each investment analyst, which accumulates the hit ratio numerical information for each investment analyst by the hit rate accumulation evaluation program. A method of evaluating investment analysts based on their hit ratios. The method of claim 5, The control unit further includes a hit ratio ranking program for calculating a ranking based on the hit ratio cumulative evaluation information for each period, The database further includes a hit ratio ranking information database for storing the hit ratio ranking information for each period, (f) transmitting, by the hit rate ranking program, the hit rate ranking information calculated by the hit rate cumulative evaluation information to the user terminal authenticated by the user authentication program; The method of evaluating the investment analyst based on the hit ratio, characterized in that further comprises. The method of claim 1, The hit ratio ranking program, and differentially display the specific investment analyst information according to the ranking, The control unit may further include a profit distribution program that differentially distributes profits according to the ranking of the hit ratio ranking information. (g) differentially displaying specific investment analyst information according to the ranking of the hit ratio ranking information and calculating profit distribution information so that a high profit distribution can be paid to a high ranking investment analyst by the profit distribution program; The method of evaluating the investment analyst based on the hit ratio, characterized in that further comprises. The method of claim 1, The hit ratio quantification program is a method of evaluating the investment analyst based on the hit ratio, characterized in that the first-in first-out calculation of the hit ratio data for a certain period from the current date. The method of claim 1, The predicted stock price is a predicted spot price, and the resultant stock price is a real spot price.

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