KR102010948B1 - Method of estimating crime risk based on multiple factor and system using thereof - Google Patents

Abstract

A system for estimating multiple crime risk factors comprises: an area selection unit selecting a specific area and calculating a location of the specific area; a local crime risk factor calculation unit calculating a local crime risk factor which is a crime risk factor of the specific area; a potential criminal presence prediction probability calculation unit calculating a potential criminal presence prediction probability which is a probability with which a potential criminal is in the specific area; a potential crime risk time calculation unit selecting a potential crime risk time which is a risk time that is likely to occur in the specific area; a potential victim location calculation unit calculating a position of a potential victim; and a multiple crime risk factor calculation unit calculating multiple crime risk factors from the local crime risk factor, the probability of estimating the potential criminal presence, the potential crime risk time and the location of the potential victim.

Description

METHOD OF ESTIMATING CRIME RISK BASED ON MULTIPLE FACTOR AND SYSTEM USING THEREOF

The present invention relates to a method for predicting integrated crime risk and a system using the same. More specifically, the present invention relates to an integrated crime risk prediction method and a system using the same, which predict the integrated crime risk by referring to multiple factors such as space-time elements, potential criminals, and potential victims.

Criminology generally refers to the field of investigation of crime occurrence, its causes, and countermeasures. Research has been conducted on the basis of criminals, and crime prevention has been studied on how to prevent criminal recurrence.

Recently, however, a problem has been found that crime occurrence is not reduced despite the control of criminals. Therefore, the necessity of research on the causes of crime in various aspects and research for suppressing crime has emerged. Research on the spatiotemporal factors related to crime occurrence is being conducted by incorporating IoT technology which is developing. However, studies on these spatiotemporal elements are still used as supplementary data for crime prevention such as simply adjusting the brightness of streetlights.

Korean Patent Publication No. 10-2014-0128590 (2014.11.06.)

Accordingly, the technical problem of the present invention has been conceived in this respect, and an object of the present invention is to provide an integrated crime risk prediction system that predicts the risk of crime from the interaction of space-time elements, potential criminals and potential victims.

Another object of the present invention is to provide an integrated crime risk prediction method that predicts a crime occurrence risk from the interaction of space-time elements, potential criminals and potential victims.

The integrated crime risk prediction system for realizing the object of the present invention includes a region selection unit for selecting a specific region and calculating a position of the specific region, and calculating a local crime risk which is a local crime risk which is a crime risk for each specific region. A potential criminal presence prediction probability calculation unit that calculates a potential criminal presence prediction probability that calculates a probability that a potential criminal exists in the specific area, and a potential crime that selects a potential crime risk time that is a dangerous time that a crime is likely to occur in the specific area. A risk time calculator, a potential victim location calculator that calculates the location of a potential victim, the local crime risk, the probability of predicting the potential criminal presence, the combined crime risk that calculates a combined crime risk from the potential crime time and the potential victim location It includes a calculation unit.

In one embodiment of the present invention, the integrated crime risk may increase as the local crime risk increases.

In one embodiment of the present invention, the integrated crime risk may increase as the probability of predicting the potential criminal presence increases.

In one embodiment of the present invention, the combined crime risk may increase as the current time approaches the potential crime risk time.

In one embodiment of the present invention, the integrated crime risk may increase as the location of the potential victim is closer to the location of the specific area.

In one embodiment of the present invention, the integrated crime risk can be determined by the following equation.

는 지역 범죄 위험도,

는 특정 영역의 위치,

는 현재 시간,

는 잠재적 범죄자 존재 예측 확률,

는 특정 영역의 넓이,

는 잠재적 범죄 위험 시간 간격,

는 잠재적 범죄 위험 시간 간격의 중심,

잠재적 피해자의 위치,

는 특정 영역의 위치임.Where F is the combined crime risk,

Is the local crime risk,

Is the location of a particular area,

Is the current time,

Is the probability of predicting the existence of potential criminals,

Is the width of a particular area,

Is a potential crime risk time interval,

Is the center of the potential criminal risk time interval,

Location of potential victims,

Is the location of a specific area.

In one embodiment of the present invention, if the value of the integrated crime risk value is outside a certain range further comprises an alarm generating unit for generating a crime risk alarm and a display unit for displaying the integrated crime risk, the display unit may be a public display have.

In one embodiment of the present invention, further comprising a crime risk type determination unit for judging a crime risk type by classifying the integrated crime risk into 16 types, wherein the 16 crime risk types include the integrated crime as time passes. A first type in which a risk increases, the local crime risk increases, the probability of predicting the potential criminal presence increases, approaches the potential crime risk time, and the location of the potential victim approaches a location of the specific area, Over time, the combined crime risk increases, the local crime risk increases, the probability of predicting the presence of potential criminals increases, the potential crime risk time approaches, and the location of the potential victims in the specific area. The second type away from the location, the combined crime risk over time The third type, time of rise, the area crime risk increases, the probability of predicting the potential criminal presence increases, moves away from the potential crime risk time, and the location of the potential victim approaches a location of the specific area. As the flow increases, the combined crime risk increases, the local crime risk increases, the probability of predicting the existence of potential criminals increases, moves away from the potential crime risk time, and the location of the potential victims at the location of the specific area. A fourth type that is farther away, the combined crime risk increases, the local crime risk increases, the probability of predicting the potential criminal presence decreases, approaches the potential crime risk time, and the location of the potential victim over time. The fifth type, in which time approaches the location of the specific region The integrated crime risk increases, the local crime risk increases, the probability of predicting the potential criminal presence decreases, the potential crime risk time approaches, and the location of the potential victim moves away from the location of the specific area. The sixth type, the combined crime risk increases with time, the local crime risk increases, the probability of predicting the potential criminal presence decreases, moves away from the potential crime risk time, and the location of the potential victim As the seventh type approaching the location of the specific area, the integrated crime risk increases, the local crime risk increases, the probability of predicting the potential criminal presence decreases, and is far from the potential crime risk time. The location of the potential victim With the eighth type of separation away, the combined crime risk increases, the local crime risk decreases, the probability of predicting the potential criminal presence increases, the potential crime risk time approaches, and the potential victim's The ninth type of the location closer to the location of the specific area, the combined crime risk increases, the local crime risk decreases, the probability of the potential criminal presence predicted increases, and the potential crime risk time Approaching, the location of the potential victim moves away from the location of the specific area, the integrated crime risk increases with time, the local crime risk decreases, and the probability of predicting the potential criminal presence increases. Away from the potential crime risk time, and the potential damage The eleventh type of the position of the child closer to the position of the specific area, the integrated crime risk increases, the local crime risk decreases, the probability of predicting the potential criminal presence increases, and the potential crime risk increases with time. A twelfth type that moves away from time and the location of the potential victim moves away from the location of the particular area, the combined crime risk increases with time, the local crime risk decreases, and the probability of predicting the potential criminal presence A thirteenth type of approaching the potential crime risk time, the location of the potential victim approaching the location of the particular area, the integrated crime risk increases over time, the local crime risk decreases, The probability of predicting the potential offender decreases, and the potential criminal risk 14th type of approaching time, the location of the potential victim away from the location of the specific area, the integrated crime risk increases with time, the local crime risk decreases, and the probability of predicting the potential criminal presence A fifteenth type that moves away from the potential crime risk time, and the location of the potential victim approaches the location of the specific area, the combined crime risk increases with time, the local crime risk decreases, The probability of existence of the potential criminal may be reduced, the distance from the potential crime risk time, and the location of the potential victim may be a sixteenth type away from the location of the specific area.

In the integrated crime risk prediction method for realizing the object of the present invention, the step of selecting a specific area and calculating the location of the specific area, the area crime risk calculator calculates a local crime risk of the crime risk for each specific area. Calculating, the potential criminal presence prediction probability calculating unit calculating a potential criminal existence prediction probability of the probability that there is a potential criminal in the specific area; and the potential crime risk time calculating unit is a risk time having a high probability of crime occurring in the specific area. Selecting a potential crime risk time, a potential victim location calculator calculating a location of a potential victim, an integrated crime risk calculator, the local crime risk, a probability of predicting the potential criminal presence, the potential crime risk time, and the potential victim location From And a step of calculating a sin risk.

In one embodiment of the present invention, the integrated crime risk may increase as the local crime risk increases.

In one embodiment of the present invention, the integrated crime risk may increase as the probability of predicting the potential criminal presence increases.

In one embodiment of the present invention, the combined crime risk may increase as the current time approaches the potential crime risk time.

In one embodiment of the present invention, the integrated crime risk may increase as the location of the potential victim is closer to the location of the specific area.

In one embodiment of the present invention, the integrated crime risk can be determined by the following equation.

는 지역 범죄 위험도,

는 특정 영역의 위치,

는 현재 시간,

는 잠재적 범죄자 존재 예측 확률,

는 특정 영역의 넓이,

는 잠재적 범죄 위험 시간 간격,

는 잠재적 범죄 위험 시간 간격의 중심,

잠재적 피해자의 위치,

는 특정 영역의 위치임.Where F is the combined crime risk,

Is the local crime risk,

Is the location of a particular area,

Is the current time,

Is the probability of predicting the existence of potential criminals,

Is the width of a particular area,

Is a potential crime risk time interval,

Is the center of the potential criminal risk time interval,

Location of potential victims,

Is the location of a specific area.

In an embodiment of the present disclosure, the alarm generating unit may further include generating a crime risk alarm when the value of the integrated crime risk value is outside a specific range, and displaying by the display unit displaying the integrated crime risk level.

In one embodiment of the present invention, the crime risk type determination unit further comprises the step of classifying the integrated crime risk into 16 types to determine the crime risk type, wherein the 16 crime risk types are the A first, wherein an integrated crime risk increases, the local crime risk increases, the probability of predicting the potential criminal presence increases, approaches the potential crime risk time, and the location of the potential victim approaches a location of the specific area; As the type and time passes, the integrated crime risk increases, the local crime risk increases, the probability of predicting the presence of potential criminals increases, the potential crime risk time approaches, and the location of the potential victims is determined. A second type away from the location of the area, the combined crimes over time A third type, time at which a degree rises, the local crime risk rises, the probability of predicting the potential criminal presence increases, moves away from the potential crime risk time, and the location of the potential victim approaches a location of the specific area The integrated crime risk increases, the local crime risk increases, the probability of predicting the potential criminal offense increases, the distance from the potential crime risk time increases, and the location of the potential victim is located in the specific area according to the flow of. A fourth type away from, the integrated crime risk increases, the local crime risk increases, the probability of the presence of the potential criminals decreases, approaches the potential crime risk time, and approaches the potential victim's risk The fifth type, the time at which the position approaches the position of the specific region As the flow rate increases, the integrated crime risk increases, the local crime risk increases, the probability of predicting the potential criminal presence decreases, the potential crime risk time approaches, and the location of the potential victim becomes the location of the specific area. A sixth type that moves away from, the combined crime risk increases, the local crime risk increases, the probability of the presence of potential criminals decreases, and the distance from the potential crime risk time increases, The seventh type of the location closer to the location of the specific area, the integrated crime risk increases, the local crime risk increases, the probability of the potential criminal presence prediction decreases, and the potential crime risk time Away from, the location of the potential victim Eighth type away from location, the combined crime risk increases with time, the local crime risk decreases, the probability of predicting the potential criminal presence increases, the potential crime risk time approaches, and the potential victim The ninth type where the position of the specific region approaches the position of the specific area, the integrated crime risk increases, the local crime risk decreases, the probability of predicting the potential criminal presence increases, and the potential crime risk increases. As the tenth type approaching time, and the location of the potential victim away from the location of the specific area, the integrated crime risk increases, the local crime risk decreases, and the probability of predicting the potential criminal presence is increased. Rise, away from the potential crime risk time, the potential The eleventh type, where the location of the enemy victim approaches the location of the specific area, the integrated crime risk increases, the local crime risk decreases, the probability of predicting the potential criminal presence increases, and the potential 12th type, away from the crime risk time, the location of the potential victim is away from the location of the specific area, the integrated crime risk increases with time, the local crime risk decreases, and the potential criminal presence prediction A thirteenth type of decreasing probability, approaching the potential crime risk time, and location of the potential victim approaching the location of the specific area; the integrated crime risk increases with time, and the local crime risk Decreases, the probability of predicting the potential criminal presence decreases, 14th type of approaching dangerous time, the location of the potential victim away from the location of the specific area, the integrated crime risk increases with time, the local crime risk decreases, and the probability of predicting the potential criminal presence Is reduced, away from the potential crime risk time, the fifteenth type where the location of the potential victim approaches the location of the specific area, the integrated crime risk increases with time, and the local crime risk decreases. The probability of predicting the potential criminal presence decreases, moves away from the potential crime risk time, and the location of the potential victim moves away from the location of the specific area.

According to embodiments of the present invention, the integrated crime risk prediction system includes a region selection unit, a crime risk calculator, a potential criminal presence prediction probability calculator, a potential crime risk time calculator, a potential victim location calculator, and an integrated crime risk calculator Include. Therefore, the degree of crime occurrence risk can be predicted more precisely and accurately from the interaction of space-time elements, potential criminals and potential victims.

In addition, the integrated crime risk prediction method can more accurately and accurately predict the degree of crime risk from the interaction of space-time factors, potential criminals, and potential victims.

1 is a block diagram showing an integrated crime risk prediction system according to an embodiment of the present invention.
2 is a block diagram showing an integrated crime risk calculation unit of the integrated crime risk prediction system according to an embodiment of the present invention.
3 is a flowchart illustrating a method for predicting integrated crime risk according to an embodiment of the present invention.
4 is a flowchart illustrating the step of calculating the integrated crime risk of the integrated crime risk prediction method according to an embodiment of the present invention.
5 is a diagram illustrating a crime risk type of the integrated crime risk prediction system and method according to an embodiment of the present invention.

As the inventive concept allows for various changes and numerous modifications, the embodiments will be described in detail in the text. However, this is not intended to limit the present invention to a specific disclosed form, it should be understood to include all modifications, equivalents, and substitutes included in the spirit and scope of the present invention. In describing the drawings, similar reference numerals are used for similar elements. Terms such as first and second may be used to describe various components, but the components should not be limited by the terms.

The terms are used only for the purpose of distinguishing one component from another. The terminology used herein is for the purpose of describing particular example embodiments only and is not intended to be limiting of the present invention. Singular expressions include plural expressions unless the context clearly indicates otherwise.

In this application, the terms "comprise" or "consist of" are intended to indicate that there is a feature, number, step, operation, component, part, or combination thereof described in the specification, and one or more other features. It is to be understood that the present invention does not exclude the possibility of the presence or the addition of numbers, steps, operations, components, parts, or combinations thereof.

Unless defined otherwise, all terms used herein, including technical or scientific terms, have the same meaning as commonly understood by one of ordinary skill in the art. Terms such as those defined in the commonly used dictionaries should be construed as having meanings consistent with the meanings in the context of the related art and shall not be construed in ideal or excessively formal meanings unless expressly defined in this application. Do not.

Hereinafter, exemplary embodiments of the present invention will be described in detail with reference to the drawings.

1 is a block diagram showing an integrated crime risk prediction system according to an embodiment of the present invention.

1, the integrated crime risk prediction system according to an embodiment of the present invention, the area selection unit 100, the local crime risk calculation unit 200, potential criminal presence prediction probability calculation unit 300, potential crime risk It may include a time calculation unit 400, a potential victim location calculation unit 500, an integrated crime risk calculation unit 600, an alarm generator 700, and a display unit 800.

The area selector 100 may select a specific area. For example, the specific area may be designated as an alley, a road, a sidewalk, a certain range, an available range of a sensor, an area designated by a user, and the like. The area selector 100 may calculate a location of the specific area. For example, the position of the specific region may be a center position of the selected specific region. For example, the position of the specific region may be calculated as a center vector of the specific region.

The local crime risk calculator 200 may calculate a crime risk for each specific area. The local crime risk may be calculated by referring to a sensing value collected by a sensor installed in the selected specific area, database statistics of the selected specific area, or environmental information of the selected specific area. For example, the local crime risk may calculate the local crime risk from the size, illuminance, average floating population, or crime prevention information of the selected specific area. For example, the local crime risk may be high when the size of the specific area is small, the illuminance is low, and the average floating population is less than 2 at a specific time, but the present invention is not limited thereto. Risk can be used.

The potential criminal presence prediction probability calculator 300 may calculate a probability that a potential criminal exists in the specific area. For example, it is possible to calculate the probability that a potential criminal exists in the specific region from the floating population statistics of the specific region using the selected database statistics of the specific region. For example, the probability of a criminal being present in the specific area may be calculated by referring to the environment information of the selected specific area. For example, the probability of predicting the potential offender may be greater than 0 and less than or equal to 1, and the closer to 1, the higher the probability of the potential offender being increased.

The probability of predicting the potential criminal presence may be calculated using a sensing value collected by a sensor installed in the selected specific region. For example, the sensor may be a human body sensor. For example, the potential criminal presence prediction probability may be calculated using Equation 1 below.

Equation 1

는 상기 특정 영역의 잠재적 범죄자 존재 예측 확률, n은 단위 시간당 상기 특정 영역에 설치된 인체감지센서가 데이터를 보내온 수, T는 상기 인체감지센서가 데이터를 전송하는 시간간격(단위: 초), p는 배치된 상기 인체감지센서의 수를 나타낸다.here,

Is the probability of predicting the presence of potential criminals in the specific area, n is the number of data sent by the human body sensor installed in the specific area per unit time, T is the time interval in which the human body sensor transmits data (unit: seconds), It shows the number of the human body sensor disposed.

The potential crime risk time calculation unit 400 may select a potential crime risk time that is a risk time with a high probability of crime occurring in the specific area. For example, the potential crime risk time may be selected with reference to environmental information of the specific area. For example, the crime risk time may be from 11 pm to 1 am. For example, the crime risk time may be selected by a user according to environmental information of the specific area. The potential crime risk time may be plural. Accordingly, a plurality of integrated crime risks may be generated.

The potential victim location calculator 500 may calculate the location of the potential victim. The location of the potential victim may be a location of a person located adjacent to the particular area. For example, the potential victim may be a person located adjacent to the specific area detected by the specific area and a sensor installed around the specific area.

The location of the potential victim may be a location of a mobile communication device including a display unit 800 indicating the integrated crime risk level. For example, the location of the potential victim may be a location of a mobile communication terminal including an image display device that is a display unit 800 indicating the integrated crime risk and knowing the location information through GPS and network information. The victim may be a person having the mobile communication terminal.

The potential victim may be multiple. Accordingly, a plurality of integrated crime risks may be generated for each potential victim.

The integrated crime risk calculator 600 may calculate an integrated crime risk from the local crime risk, the probability of predicting the presence of a potential criminal, the potential crime risk time, and the location of the potential victim. Accordingly, the integrated crime risk can calculate the integrated crime risk considering the spatial component of the local crime risk, the temporal component of the potential crime risk time, the probability of predicting the potential criminal presence, and the interaction of the potential victim location. have.

A plurality of integrated crime risks may be calculated for each specific area, for each potential crime risk time, for each potential criminal presence prediction probability, and for each potential victim location to generate an integrated crime risk according to a purpose. For example, the purpose is to display the integrated crime risk as public information for the majority in a public display, and the display unit 800 may display the highest value among the plurality of integrated crime risks calculated in the specific area. Can be. However, the present invention is not limited thereto, and the integrated crime risk may be displayed or used in various ways to prevent crime of a user.

The integrated crime risk may reflect a spatial factor. The integrated crime risk may increase as the local crime risk increases. For example, the illuminance of the specific area is low, and thus the local crime risk is high, thereby increasing the integrated crime risk.

The integrated crime risk may reflect a temporal factor. The combined crime risk may increase as the potential crime risk time approaches. For example, the potential crime risk time ranges from 23 o'clock to 1 o'clock of the next day, and the closer to this time, the higher the risk of the combined crime.

The integrated crime risk may reflect factors related to the interaction of potential criminals and potential victims. The integrated crime risk may be influenced by the predicted probability that the potential criminal exists in the specific area and the location of the potential victim near the specific area. The integrated crime risk may increase as the probability of predicting the presence of the potential criminal increases. The integrated crime risk may increase as the location of the potential victim is closer to the location of the specific area.

The alarm generation unit 700 may generate a crime risk alarm when the integrated crime risk value is outside a specific range. The generation range of the alarm may be selected by the user. For example, the integrated crime risk is a value between 0 and 1, and an alarm may be generated if the integrated crime risk exceeds 0.1.

The display unit 800 may display the integrated crime risk. For example, the display unit 800 may be a public display, and the public display may be a high resolution image display device for posting public content. For example, the display unit 800 may be a mobile communication device including an image display unit 800, and the integrated crime risk may be provided as an application to the mobile communication device. The integrated crime risk may be displayed together with a map on which the specific area is displayed.

The crime danger alarm may occur when entering the specific area where the crime danger alarm occurred. For example, the crime risk alarm may occur as a vibration, voice or warning window when the location of the mobile communication device including the integrated crime risk display unit 800 enters the specific area.

2 is a block diagram showing the integrated crime risk calculation unit 600 of the integrated crime risk prediction system according to an embodiment of the present invention.

The integrated crime risk prediction system according to the present embodiment is substantially the same as the integrated crime risk prediction system of FIG. 1 except for the integrated crime risk value calculation unit 610 and the crime risk type determination unit 620. Therefore, the same components as those of the integrated crime risk prediction system of FIG. 1 are given the same reference numerals, and repeated descriptions are omitted.

Referring to FIG. 2, the integrated crime risk calculator 600 may include an integrated crime risk value calculator 610 and a crime risk type determiner 620.

The integrated crime risk value calculation unit 610 may calculate the integrated crime risk according to Equation 2 below.

Equation 2

는 지역 범죄 위험도,

는 특정 영역의 위치,

는 현재 시간,

는 잠재적 범죄자 존재 예측 확률,

는 특정 영역의 넓이,

는 잠재적 범죄 위험 시간 간격,

는 잠재적 범죄 위험 시간 간격의 중심,

잠재적 피해자의 위치,

는 특정 영역의 위치를 나타낸다.Where F is the combined crime risk,

Is the local crime risk,

Is the location of a particular area,

Is the current time,

Is the probability of predicting the existence of potential criminals,

Is the width of a particular area,

Is a potential crime risk time interval,

Is the center of the potential criminal risk time interval,

Location of potential victims,

Indicates the location of a particular area.

Here, the potential criminal presence prediction probability may have a value that exceeds 0 and is less than one. The probability of predicting the potential criminal presence may be calculated using a sensing value collected by a sensor installed in the selected specific region. For example, the sensor may be a human body sensor. For example, the potential criminal presence prediction probability may be calculated by using Equation 3 below.

Equation 3

는 상기 특정 영역의 잠재적 범죄자 존재 예측 확률, n은 단위 시간당 상기 특정 영역에 설치된 인체감지센서가 데이터를 보내온 수, T는 상기 인체감지센서가 데이터를 전송하는 시간간격(단위: 초), p는 배치된 상기 인체감지센서의 수를 나타낸다.here,

Is the probability of predicting the presence of potential criminals in the specific area, n is the number of data sent by the human body sensor installed in the specific area per unit time, T is the time interval in which the human body sensor transmits data (unit: seconds), It shows the number of the human body sensor disposed.

The above formula may be used in plurality depending on the number of potential crime risk time intervals. The crime risk type determination unit 620 may classify the integrated crime risk into various types to determine a crime risk type. For example, the crime risk type determination unit 620 may determine the integrated crime risk as 16 types. By classifying the crime risk type, it is possible to more easily grasp the degree of risk represented by the integrated crime risk, and determine the type of change in the integrated crime risk over time to use for predicting crime risk. For example, the alarm generation unit may generate a crime risk alarm when the integrated crime risk value is greater than or equal to a specific value, and the crime type determination unit may determine the crime risk type that can infer a crime situation.

Sixteen types of crime risk increase over time, the combined crime risk increases, the local crime risk increases, the probability of predicting the presence of potential criminals increases, the potential crime risk time approaches, and The location may comprise a first type that approximates the location of the particular area.

Further, as time passes, the integrated crime risk increases, the local crime risk increases, the probability of predicting the potential criminal presence increases, the potential crime risk time approaches, and the location of the potential victim is determined. And a second type away from the location of the region.

In addition, as time passes, the combined crime risk increases, the local crime risk increases, the probability of predicting the existence of potential criminals increases, moves away from the potential crime risk time, and the location of the potential victim is determined. It may include a third type approaching the location of the area.

In addition, as time passes, the combined crime risk increases, the local crime risk increases, the probability of predicting the existence of potential criminals increases, moves away from the potential crime risk time, and the location of the potential victim is determined. And a fourth type away from the location of the region.

Further, as time passes, the integrated crime risk increases, the local crime risk increases, the probability of predicting the potential criminal presence decreases, the potential crime risk time approaches, and the location of the potential victim is determined by the specific crime. It may include a fifth type approaching the location of the region.

Further, as time passes, the integrated crime risk increases, the local crime risk increases, the probability of predicting the potential criminal presence decreases, the potential crime risk time approaches, and the location of the potential victim is determined by the specific crime. And a sixth type away from the location of the region.

Further, as time passes, the combined crime risk increases, the local crime risk increases, the probability of predicting the potential criminal presence decreases, moves away from the potential crime risk time, and the location of the potential victim is determined by the specific crime. And a seventh type that approximates the location of the region.

Further, as time passes, the combined crime risk increases, the local crime risk increases, the probability of predicting the potential criminal presence decreases, moves away from the potential crime risk time, and the location of the potential victim is determined by the specific crime. And an eighth type away from the location of the region.

Further, as time passes, the combined crime risk increases, the local crime risk decreases, the probability of predicting the potential criminal presence increases, the time of the potential crime risk approaches, and the location of the potential victim is determined. It may include a ninth type approaching the location of the region.

Further, as time passes, the combined crime risk increases, the local crime risk decreases, the probability of predicting the potential criminal presence increases, the time of the potential crime risk approaches, and the location of the potential victim is determined. And a tenth type away from the location of the region.

Further, as time passes, the integrated crime risk increases, the local crime risk decreases, the probability of predicting the potential criminal presence increases, moves away from the potential crime risk time, and the location of the potential victim is determined. And an eleventh type approaching the location of the region.

Further, as time passes, the integrated crime risk increases, the local crime risk decreases, the probability of predicting the potential criminal presence increases, moves away from the potential crime risk time, and the location of the potential victim is determined. And a twelfth type away from the location of the region.

In addition, as time passes, the combined crime risk increases, the local crime risk decreases, the probability of predicting the potential criminal presence decreases, the potential crime risk time approaches, and the location of the potential victim is determined. And a thirteenth type approaching the location of the region.

In addition, as time passes, the combined crime risk increases, the local crime risk decreases, the probability of predicting the potential criminal presence decreases, the potential crime risk time approaches, and the location of the potential victim is determined. And a fourteenth type away from the location of the region.

In addition, over time, the combined crime risk increases, the local crime risk decreases, the probability of predicting the potential criminal presence decreases, moves away from the potential crime risk time, and the location of the potential victim And a fifteenth type approaching the location of the region.

In addition, over time, the combined crime risk increases, the local crime risk decreases, the probability of predicting the potential criminal presence decreases, moves away from the potential crime risk time, and the location of the potential victim And a sixteenth type away from the location of the region.

3 is a flowchart illustrating a method for predicting integrated crime risk according to an embodiment of the present invention.

The integrated crime risk prediction method according to the present embodiment includes an integrated crime risk prediction system. Therefore, the same components as those of the integrated crime risk prediction system of FIGS. 1 and 2 are assigned the same reference numerals, and repeated descriptions are omitted.

Referring to FIG. 3, in the integrated crime risk prediction method according to an embodiment of the present invention, calculating a location of a specific area (S100), calculating a local crime risk (S200), and calculating a potential criminal presence prediction probability In step S300, selecting a potential crime risk time (S400), calculating a location of a potential victim (S500), and calculating an integrated crime risk level (S600).

In the calculating of the position of the specific region (S100), the region selecting unit 100 may select the specific region. For example, the specific area may be designated as an alley, a road, a sidewalk, a certain range, an available range of a sensor, an area designated by a user, and the like. In the calculating of the position of the specific region (S100), the area selector 100 may calculate the position of the specific region. For example, the position of the specific region may be a center position of the selected specific region. For example, the position of the specific region may be calculated as a center vector of the specific region.

In the calculating of the local crime risk level (S200), the local crime risk calculation unit 200 may calculate a local crime risk which is a crime risk for each specific area. The local crime risk may be calculated by referring to a sensing value collected by a sensor installed in the selected specific area, database statistics of the selected specific area, or environmental information of the selected specific area. For example, the local crime risk may calculate the local crime risk from the size, illuminance, average floating population, or crime prevention information of the selected specific area.

In the calculating of the potential criminal presence prediction probability (S300), the potential criminal presence prediction probability, which is a probability that the potential criminal exists in the specific region, may be calculated. For example, it is possible to calculate the probability that a potential criminal exists in the specific region by using the sensing value collected by the sensor installed in the selected specific region. For example, it is possible to calculate the probability that a potential criminal exists in the specific region from the floating population statistics of the specific region using the selected database statistics of the specific region. For example, the probability of a criminal being present in the specific area may be calculated by referring to the environment information of the selected specific area. For example, the probability of predicting the potential offender may be greater than 0 and less than or equal to 1, and the closer to 1, the higher the probability of the potential offender being increased.

In the step of selecting the potential crime risk time (S400), the potential crime risk time calculation unit 400 may select a potential crime risk time that is a risk time having a high probability of a crime occurring in the specific area. For example, the potential crime risk time may be selected with reference to environmental information of the specific area. For example, the crime risk time may be from 11 pm to 1 am. For example, the crime risk time may be selected by a user according to environmental information of the specific area. The potential crime risk time may be plural. Accordingly, a plurality of integrated crime risks may be generated.

In the step of calculating the location of the potential victim (S500), the potential victim location calculation unit 500 may calculate the location of the potential victim. The location of the potential victim may be a location of a person located adjacent to the particular area. For example, the potential victim may be a person located adjacent to the specific area detected by the specific area and a sensor installed around the specific area.

The location of the potential victim may be a location of a mobile communication device including a display unit 800 indicating the integrated crime risk level. For example, the location of the potential victim may be a location of a mobile communication terminal including an image display device that is a display unit 800 indicating the integrated crime risk and knowing the location information through GPS and network information. The victim may be a person having the mobile communication terminal.

The potential victim may be multiple. Accordingly, a plurality of integrated crime risks may be generated for each potential victim.

In the calculating of the integrated crime risk (S600), the integrated crime risk calculator 600 may calculate an integrated crime risk from the local crime risk, the probability of the presence of the potential criminal, the potential crime risk time, and the location of the potential victim. Can be. Accordingly, the integrated crime risk can calculate the integrated crime risk considering the spatial component of the local crime risk, the temporal component of the potential crime risk time, the probability of predicting the potential criminal presence, and the interaction of the potential victim location. have.

A plurality of integrated crime risks may be calculated for each specific area, for each potential crime risk time, for each potential criminal presence prediction probability, and for each potential victim location to generate an integrated crime risk according to a purpose. For example, the purpose is to display the integrated crime risk as public information for the majority in a public display, and the display unit 800 displaying the highest value among the plurality of integrated crime risks calculated in the specific area. It may further include. However, the present invention is not limited thereto, and the integrated crime risk may be displayed or used in various ways to prevent crime of a user.

The integrated crime risk may reflect a spatial factor. The integrated crime risk may increase as the local crime risk increases. For example, the illuminance of the specific area is low, and thus the local crime risk is high, thereby increasing the integrated crime risk.

The integrated crime risk may reflect a temporal factor. The combined crime risk may increase as the potential crime risk time approaches. For example, the potential crime risk time ranges from 23 o'clock to 1 o'clock of the next day, and the closer to this time, the higher the risk of the combined crime.

The integrated crime risk may reflect factors related to the interaction of potential criminals and potential victims. The integrated crime risk may be influenced by the predicted probability that the potential criminal exists in the specific area and the location of the potential victim near the specific area. The integrated crime risk may increase as the probability of predicting the presence of the potential criminal increases. The integrated crime risk may increase as the location of the potential victim is closer to the location of the specific area.

4 is a flowchart illustrating a step (S600) of calculating an integrated crime risk of the integrated crime risk prediction method according to an embodiment of the present invention.

The integrated crime risk prediction method according to the present embodiment includes the steps of determining a crime risk type (S610), displaying a value of the integrated crime risk (S620), and generating a crime risk alarm (S630). It is substantially the same as the integrated crime risk forecasting method in section 3. Therefore, the same components as in the integrated crime risk prediction method of FIG. 3 are given the same reference numerals, and repeated descriptions are omitted.

Integrated crime risk prediction method according to an embodiment of the present invention further comprises the step of determining the crime risk type (S610), displaying the value of the integrated crime risk (S620) and generating a crime risk alarm (S630) It may include.

In the determining of the crime risk type (S610), the crime risk type may be determined by classifying the integrated crime risk into various types. For example, the crime risk type may be 16 types. By classifying the crime risk type, it is possible to more easily grasp the degree of risk represented by the integrated crime risk, and determine the type of change in the integrated crime risk over time to use for predicting crime risk. For example, in the determining of the crime risk type (S610), if the integrated crime risk value is greater than or equal to a certain value, a crime risk alarm may be generated and the crime risk type may be determined.

Since the crime risk type is substantially the same as the crime risk type of FIGS. 1 and 2, redundant descriptions are omitted.

In the displaying of the integrated crime risk level (S620), the display unit 800 may display the integrated crime risk level. The crime risk may be displayed together with a map on which the specific area is displayed. For example, in the displaying of the integrated crime risk level (S620), the crime risk degree may be displayed on an image display device. In the displaying of the integrated crime risk level (S620), the integrated crime risk level may be displayed on the image display unit 800 of the mobile communication device.

In the generating of the crime risk alarm (S630), the alarm generator 700 may generate a crime danger alarm when the integrated crime risk value is outside a specific range. For example, when the value of the integrated crime risk is 0.1 or more, a crime risk alarm can be generated. The crime danger alarm may be displayed on a map on which the specific area is displayed. For example, the crime risk alarm may be displayed in colors, numbers, letters, figures, and highlight indicators in the specific area where the crime danger alarm occurred.

The crime danger alarm may occur when entering the specific area where the crime danger alarm occurred. For example, the crime risk alarm may occur as a vibration, voice or warning window when the location of the mobile communication device including the integrated crime risk display unit 800 enters the specific area.

5 is a diagram illustrating a crime risk type of the integrated crime risk prediction system and method according to an embodiment of the present invention.

The crime risk type according to the present embodiment can be used in the integrated crime risk prediction system and method of FIGS. 1 to 4. Accordingly, the same components as those of the integrated crime risk prediction system and method of FIGS. 1 to 4 are assigned the same reference numerals, and repeated descriptions are omitted.

Referring to FIG. 5, an integrated crime risk prediction system and method according to an embodiment of the present invention may include 16 crime risk types and may be represented by an equation.

The sixteen types of crime risks represented by the above equations may be derived from the integrated crime risks represented by the above equations, and the integrated crime risks may be calculated by the following equation (4).

Equation 4

는 지역 범죄 위험도,

는 특정 영역의 위치,

는 현재 시간,

는 잠재적 범죄자 존재 예측 확률,

는 특정 영역의 넓이,

는 잠재적 범죄 위험 시간 간격,

는 잠재적 범죄 위험 시간 간격의 중심,

잠재적 피해자의 위치,

는 특정 영역의 위치를 나타낸다.Where F is the combined crime risk,

Is the local crime risk,

Is the location of a particular area,

Is the current time,

Is the probability of predicting the existence of potential criminals,

Is the width of a particular area,

Is a potential crime risk time interval,

Is the center of the potential criminal risk time interval,

Location of potential victims,

Indicates the location of a particular area.

The sixteen types of crime risk represented by the above equation may be derived from the equation of the integrated crime risk.

The first type may be a type that satisfies the equations of Case 1 of FIG. 5. The second type may be a type that satisfies the equations of Case 2 of FIG. 5. The third type may be a type that satisfies the equations of Case 3 of FIG. 5. The fourth type may be a type that satisfies the equations of Case 4 of FIG. 5. The fifth type may be a type that satisfies the equations of Case 5 of FIG. 5. The sixth type may be a type that satisfies the equations of Case 6 of FIG. 5. The seventh type may be a type that satisfies the equations of Case 7 of FIG. 5. The eighth type may be a type that satisfies the equations of Case 8 of FIG. 5. The ninth type may be a type that satisfies the equations of Case 9 of FIG. 5. The tenth type may be a type that satisfies the equations of Case 10 of FIG. 5. The eleventh type may be a type that satisfies the equations of Case 11 of FIG. 5. The twelfth type may be a type that satisfies the equations of Case 12 of FIG. 5. The thirteenth type may be a type that satisfies the equations of Case 13 of FIG. 5. The fourteenth type may be a type that satisfies the equations of Case 14 of FIG. 5. The fifteenth type may be a type that satisfies the equations of Case 15 of FIG. 5. The sixteenth type may be a type that satisfies the equations of Case 16 of FIG. 5.

The crime risk type may include whether the integrated crime risk is increased, the local crime risk is increased, the potential criminal presence prediction probability is increased, the potential crime risk time is close, the potential victim location and the location of the specific area. It can change depending on the proximity of.

According to embodiments of the present invention, the system and method for predicting crime risk take into account not only space-time factors but also human factors and their interactions, and induce an effect of predicting crime risk by inferring a situation that changes over time. Can be.

Although described above with reference to the embodiments, those skilled in the art can variously modify and change the present invention without departing from the spirit and scope of the invention described in the claims below. I can understand that.

100: region selection unit
200: local crime risk calculator
300: potential criminal presence prediction probability calculator
400: Potential Crime Risk Time Calculator
500: potential victim location calculator
600: integrated crime risk calculator
700: alarm generator
800: display unit

Claims (16)

An area selecting unit which selects a specific area and calculates a position of the specific area;
A local crime risk calculator that calculates a local crime risk which is a crime risk for each particular area of the specific area;
A potential criminal presence prediction probability calculator for calculating a potential criminal presence prediction probability that is a probability that a potential criminal exists in the specific region;
A potential crime risk time calculator for selecting a potential crime risk time which is a risk time with a high probability of a crime occurring in the specific area;
A potential victim location calculating unit for calculating a location of a potential victim;
An integrated crime risk calculator that calculates an integrated crime risk from the local crime risk, the potential criminal presence prediction probability, the potential crime risk time, and the potential victim location;
The integrated crime risk prediction system is determined by the following equation.

Where F is the combined crime risk,

Is the local crime risk,

Is the location of a particular area,

Is the current time,

Is the probability of predicting the existence of potential criminals,

Is the width of a particular area,

Is a potential crime risk time interval,

Is the center of the potential criminal risk time interval,

Location of potential victims,

Is the location of a specific area.
The method of claim 1,
The integrated crime risk prediction system increases as the local crime risk increases.
The method of claim 1,
The integrated crime risk prediction system increases as the probability of predicting the potential criminal presence increases.
The method of claim 1,
The integrated crime risk prediction system increases as the current time approaches the potential crime risk time.
The method of claim 1,
The integrated crime risk prediction system increases as the location of the potential victim is closer to the location of the specific area.
delete The method of claim 1,
An alarm generator for generating a crime risk alarm if the value of the integrated crime risk value is outside a specific range; And
Further comprising a display unit for displaying the integrated crime risk,
And the display unit is a public display.
The method of claim 1,
Further comprising a crime risk type determination unit for judging the crime risk type by classifying the integrated crime risk into 16 types,
The crime risk type is
Over time, the combined crime risk increases, the local crime risk increases, the probability of predicting the presence of potential criminals increases, the potential crime risk time approaches, and the location of the potential victims in the specific area. First type approaching position,
Over time, the combined crime risk increases, the local crime risk increases, the probability of predicting the presence of potential criminals increases, the potential crime risk time approaches, and the location of the potential victims in the specific area. Second type away from position,
Over time, the combined crime risk increases, the local crime risk increases, the probability of predicting the presence of potential criminals increases, moves away from the potential crime risk time, and the location of the potential victims The third type approaching the position,
Over time, the combined crime risk increases, the local crime risk increases, the probability of predicting the presence of potential criminals increases, moves away from the potential crime risk time, and the location of the potential victims Fourth type away from position,
Over time, the combined crime risk increases, the local crime risk increases, the probability of predicting the potential criminal presence decreases, approaches the potential crime risk time, and the location of the potential victims Fifth type approaching position,
Over time, the combined crime risk increases, the local crime risk increases, the probability of predicting the potential criminal presence decreases, approaches the potential crime risk time, and the location of the potential victims Sixth type away from position,
Over time, the combined crime risk increases, the local crime risk increases, the probability of predicting the potential criminal presence decreases, moves away from the potential crime risk time, and the location of the potential victims Seventh type approaching the position,
Over time, the combined crime risk increases, the local crime risk increases, the probability of predicting the potential criminal presence decreases, moves away from the potential crime risk time, and the location of the potential victims Eighth type away from position,
Over time, the combined crime risk increases, the local crime risk decreases, the probability of predicting the potential offender presence increases, the potential crime risk time approaches, and the location of the potential victims in the particular area. Ninth type close to the position,
Over time, the combined crime risk increases, the local crime risk decreases, the probability of predicting the potential offender presence increases, the potential crime risk time approaches, and the location of the potential victims in the particular area. Tenth type away from position,
Over time, the combined crime risk increases, the local crime risk decreases, the probability of predicting potential criminal presence increases, moves away from the potential crime risk time, and the location of the potential victims Eleventh type close to the position,
Over time, the combined crime risk increases, the local crime risk decreases, the probability of predicting potential criminal presence increases, moves away from the potential crime risk time, and the location of the potential victims 12th type away from the position,
Over time, the combined crime risk increases, the local crime risk decreases, the probability of predicting the potential offender presence decreases, the potential crime risk time approaches, and the location of the potential victims in the particular area. The thirteenth type approaching the position,
Over time, the combined crime risk increases, the local crime risk decreases, the probability of predicting the potential offender presence decreases, the potential crime risk time approaches, and the location of the potential victims in the particular area. 14th type away from position,
Over time, the combined crime risk increases, the local crime risk decreases, the probability of predicting the potential criminal presence decreases, moves away from the potential crime risk time, and the location of the potential victims 15th type approaching the position,
Over time, the combined crime risk increases, the local crime risk decreases, the probability of predicting the potential criminal presence decreases, moves away from the potential crime risk time, and the location of the potential victims Integrated Crime Risk Prediction System, type 16, away from location.
In the integrated crime risk prediction system,
Selecting, by a region selecting unit, a specific region and calculating a position of the specific region;
Calculating, by a local crime risk calculation unit, a local crime risk which is a crime risk for each specific area of the specific area;
Calculating, by the potential criminal presence prediction probability calculation unit, a potential criminal presence prediction probability that is a probability that a potential criminal exists in the specific area;
Selecting, by the potential crime risk time calculation unit, a potential crime risk time that is a risk time that a crime is likely to occur in the specific area;
A potential victim location calculating unit calculating a location of a potential victim; And
A united crime risk calculator calculating a united crime risk from the area crime risk, the potential criminal presence prediction probability, the potential crime risk time, and the potential victim location;
The integrated crime risk prediction method is determined by the following equation.

Where F is the combined crime risk,

Is the local crime risk,

Is the location of a particular area,

Is the current time,

Is the probability of predicting the existence of potential criminals,

Is the width of a particular area,

Is a potential crime risk time interval,

Is the center of the potential criminal risk time interval,

Location of potential victims,

Is the location of a specific area.
The method of claim 9,
The integrated crime risk prediction method increases the greater the risk of the local crime.
The method of claim 9,
The integrated crime risk prediction method increases as the probability of predicting the presence of the potential criminal increases.
The method of claim 9,
The integrated crime risk prediction method increases as the current time approaches the potential crime risk time.
The method of claim 9,
The integrated crime risk prediction method increases the closer the location of the potential victim to the location of the specific area.
delete The method of claim 9,
Generating, by an alarm generator, a crime risk alarm if the value of the integrated crime risk value is outside a specific range; And
And a display unit displaying the integrated crime risk level.
The method of claim 9,
The crime risk type determination unit further comprises the step of classifying the integrated crime risk into 16 types to determine a crime risk type,
The crime risk type is
Over time, the combined crime risk increases, the local crime risk increases, the probability of predicting the presence of potential criminals increases, the potential crime risk time approaches, and the location of the potential victims in the specific area. First type approaching position,
Over time, the combined crime risk increases, the local crime risk increases, the probability of predicting the presence of potential criminals increases, the potential crime risk time approaches, and the location of the potential victims in the specific area. Second type away from position,
Over time, the combined crime risk increases, the local crime risk increases, the probability of predicting the presence of potential criminals increases, moves away from the potential crime risk time, and the location of the potential victims The third type approaching the position,
Over time, the combined crime risk increases, the local crime risk increases, the probability of predicting the presence of potential criminals increases, moves away from the potential crime risk time, and the location of the potential victims Fourth type away from position,
Over time, the combined crime risk increases, the local crime risk increases, the probability of predicting the potential criminal presence decreases, approaches the potential crime risk time, and the location of the potential victims Fifth type approaching position,
Over time, the combined crime risk increases, the local crime risk increases, the probability of predicting the potential criminal presence decreases, approaches the potential crime risk time, and the location of the potential victims Sixth type away from position,
Over time, the combined crime risk increases, the local crime risk increases, the probability of predicting the potential criminal presence decreases, moves away from the potential crime risk time, and the location of the potential victims Seventh type approaching the position,
Over time, the combined crime risk increases, the local crime risk increases, the probability of predicting the potential criminal presence decreases, moves away from the potential crime risk time, and the location of the potential victims Eighth type away from position,
Over time, the combined crime risk increases, the local crime risk decreases, the probability of predicting the potential offender presence increases, the potential crime risk time approaches, and the location of the potential victims in the particular area. Ninth type close to the position,
Over time, the combined crime risk increases, the local crime risk decreases, the probability of predicting the potential offender presence increases, the potential crime risk time approaches, and the location of the potential victims in the particular area. Tenth type away from position,
Over time, the combined crime risk increases, the local crime risk decreases, the probability of predicting potential criminal presence increases, moves away from the potential crime risk time, and the location of the potential victims Eleventh type close to the position,
Over time, the combined crime risk increases, the local crime risk decreases, the probability of predicting potential criminal presence increases, moves away from the potential crime risk time, and the location of the potential victims 12th type away from the position,
Over time, the combined crime risk increases, the local crime risk decreases, the probability of predicting the potential offender presence decreases, the potential crime risk time approaches, and the location of the potential victims in the particular area. The thirteenth type approaching the position,
Over time, the combined crime risk increases, the local crime risk decreases, the probability of predicting the potential offender presence decreases, the potential crime risk time approaches, and the location of the potential victims in the particular area. 14th type away from position,
Over time, the combined crime risk increases, the local crime risk decreases, the probability of predicting the potential criminal presence decreases, moves away from the potential crime risk time, and the location of the potential victims 15th type approaching the position,
Over time, the combined crime risk increases, the local crime risk decreases, the probability of predicting the potential criminal presence decreases, moves away from the potential crime risk time, and the location of the potential victims Integrated crime risk prediction method, type 16, away from location.

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