KR101865791B1 - Typhoon risk analysis system and typhoon risk analysis method using the same - Google Patents

Abstract

The present invention relates to a typhoon risk analysis system and a typhoon risk analysis method using the same. According to an embodiment of the present invention, the typhoon risk analysis method is used to analyze the risks related to natural disasters. The typhoon risk analysis method includes the steps of: obtaining region setting information related to a target region to execute a risk analysis thereon; obtaining time information related to a time range of the data to be used for the risk analysis; obtaining weather information related to the target region based on the region setting information; obtaining variable information related to the target region; calculating the risk based on the variable information and a part of the weather information within the time range included in the time information; and outputting a risk analysis result.

Description

Technical Field [0001] The present invention relates to a typhoon risk analysis system and a typhoon risk analysis method using the same,

The present invention relates to a typhoon risk analysis system and a typhoon risk analysis method using the same, more specifically, a typhoon risk analysis system capable of calculating typhoon risk based on past typhoon history and regional variables, and typhoon risk analysis method using the same .

Natural disasters such as typhoons, heavy rains and tsunamis are accompanied by personal injury and material damage. It is almost impossible to prepare for this situation because the frequency and strength of each region vary.

In the past, natural disasters such as typhoons were excluded from compensation for natural disasters due to natural disasters, and compensation models such as insurance against natural disasters were not provided.

In order to provide a compensation model for such natural disasters, the risk level, compensation amount, and estimated compensation amount should be calculated. However, in case of natural disasters, there is a problem that it is difficult to calculate the risk.

An object of the present invention is to provide a typhoon risk analysis system capable of calculating typhoon risk based on historical typhoon history and regional variables and a typhoon risk analysis method using the same.

It is to be understood that the present invention is not limited to the above-described embodiments and that various changes and modifications may be made without departing from the spirit and scope of the present invention as defined by the following claims .

According to an aspect of the present invention, there is provided a risk analysis method for analyzing a risk for a natural disaster, the method comprising: obtaining area setting information for a target area for performing the risk analysis; Obtaining time information on a temporal range of data to be used for the risk analysis; Obtaining weather information for the target area based on the area setting information; Obtaining variable information for the target area; Calculating a risk based on the meteorological information and the variable information on a time interval included in the time information among the meteorological information on the target area; And outputting a result of the risk analysis.

According to another aspect of the present invention, a recording medium on which a program for performing the above-described method is recorded can be provided.

According to another aspect of the present invention, there is provided an information processing apparatus including: a communication unit for obtaining weather information and variable information required for the risk analysis; And obtaining region setting information for a region to be subjected to the risk analysis, obtaining time information on a temporal range of data to be used for the risk analysis, and obtaining weather information on the target region based on the region setting information Acquiring variable information for the target area, calculating a risk based on the meteorological information and the variable information for a time interval included in the time information among the meteorological information about the target area, And a control unit for controlling the output of the result.

It is to be understood that the solution of the problem of the present invention is not limited to the above-mentioned solutions, and the solutions which are not mentioned can be clearly understood by those skilled in the art to which the present invention belongs It will be possible.

According to the present invention, the risk of a typhoon can be calculated based on past typhoon history and regional variables.

The effects of the present invention are not limited to the above-mentioned effects, and the effects not mentioned can be clearly understood by those skilled in the art from the present specification and the accompanying drawings.

1 is an environment diagram of a risk analysis system 10000 according to an embodiment of the present invention.
2 is a block diagram of a risk analysis apparatus 1000 according to an embodiment of the present invention.
3 is a flowchart of a typhoon risk analysis method according to an embodiment of the present invention.
4 is an illustration of an area setting according to an embodiment of the present invention.

The above objects, features and advantages of the present invention will become more apparent from the following detailed description taken in conjunction with the accompanying drawings. It is to be understood, however, that the invention is not limited to the disclosed embodiments, but, on the contrary, is intended to cover various modifications and similarities.

In the drawings, the thicknesses of the layers and regions are exaggerated for clarity and the element or layer is referred to as being "on" or "on" Included in the scope of the present invention is not only directly above another element or layer but also includes intervening layers or other elements in between. Like reference numerals designate like elements throughout the specification. The same reference numerals are used to designate the same components in the same reference numerals in the drawings of the embodiments.

The detailed description of known functions and configurations incorporated herein will be omitted when it may make the subject matter of the present invention rather unclear. In addition, numerals (e.g., first, second, etc.) used in the description of the present invention are merely an identifier for distinguishing one component from another.

In addition, the suffix "module" and " part "for constituent elements used in the following description are given or mixed in consideration of ease of specification, and do not have their own meaning or role.

According to an aspect of the present invention, there is provided a risk analysis method for analyzing a risk for a natural disaster, the method comprising: obtaining area setting information for a target area for performing the risk analysis; Obtaining time information on a temporal range of data to be used for the risk analysis; Obtaining weather information for the target area based on the area setting information; Obtaining variable information for the target area; Calculating a risk based on the meteorological information and the variable information on a time interval included in the time information among the meteorological information on the target area; And outputting a result of the risk analysis.

The risk analysis can also be a risk analysis for typhoons.

Further, the risk analysis result is calculated based on the frequency of typhoon occurrence, the influence of typhoon, and the terrain parameter, and the influence of the typhoon may include wind effect and rainfall influence.

The risk analysis result can be calculated based on the following equation.

expression

Risk = Frequency of typhoons * Influence of typhoon (Wind effect + rainfall effect) * Terrain parameter

(Where the frequency of typhoon occurrence is the frequency of typhoon occurrence during an unspecified period, the influence of typhoon is calculated based on detailed information of typhoon, and the topographical variable is calculated based on topographical information)

The frequency of occurrence of the typhoon can be calculated based on the probability distribution function (PDFs).

The frequency of occurrence of the typhoon may be an average value of the number of typhoons that have occurred in the target area for one year in the time period.

Further, the wind influence can be calculated based on the following equation.

expression

(Where r is the tangential wind, r is the distance from the hurricane center, Pc is the center pressure, Pe is the environmental pressure (typically calculated as 1013 mob), maximum is the maximum wind radius, , f is the Coriolis parameter, and P is the air density)

Also, the rainfall variable may be a conversion value corresponding to the maximum rainfall amount and the average rainfall amount during the period in which the target area is included in the influence range of the typhoon.

Also, the terrain parameter may be calculated based on at least one of imperviousness, drainage, greening rate, building density, and terrain characteristics of the target area.

And further calculating at least one of a tsunami risk and a rainfall risk.

The tsunami risk may be calculated based on the altitude from the shoreline and the specification of the anti-tsunami facility installed in the target area when the target area is located within a predetermined distance from the shoreline and within a predetermined altitude.

Also, the rainfall risk may be calculated by calculating an average rainfall amount and a maximum rainfall amount during the time period based on the annual rainfall amount in the target area, and taking into consideration the average rainfall amount, the maximum rainfall amount, and the terrain variable.

According to another aspect of the present invention, a recording medium on which a program for performing the above-described method is recorded can be provided.

According to another aspect of the present invention, there is provided an information processing apparatus including: a communication unit for obtaining weather information and variable information required for the risk analysis; And obtaining region setting information for a region to be subjected to the risk analysis, obtaining time information on a temporal range of data to be used for the risk analysis, and obtaining weather information on the target region based on the region setting information Acquiring variable information for the target area, calculating a risk based on the meteorological information and the variable information for a time interval included in the time information among the meteorological information about the target area, And a control unit for controlling the output of the result.

1 is an environment diagram of a risk analysis system 10000 according to an embodiment of the present invention.

Referring to FIG. 1, the risk analysis system 10000 may include a risk analysis apparatus 1000, a weather database 2000, and a variable DB 3000.

The risk analysis apparatus 1000 can be connected to a weather database (DB) apparatus and a local variable DB apparatus.

The risk analysis apparatus 1000 can acquire weather information from the weather DB apparatus. The weather information is, for example, information related to a typhoon, which may include typhoon occurrence time information, typhoon route information, and typhoon detail information. Here, the typhoon occurrence time information may be information on when the typhoon occurs and when it has vanished. Also, the typhoon route information may be a route from the time when the typhoon occurred to the time when it has vanished. These typhoon route information may be provided in the form of latitude and longitude coordinates, or may be provided in the form of information about the area where the typhoon has moved. Typhoon details may include a variety of information related to typhoons. For example, information such as intensity, wind speed, rainfall, air pressure, and wind direction of a typhoon may be included. In addition, the typhoon detail information may be provided for each region located on the travel route of the typhoon, and the typhoon detail information for the time point may be provided according to a predetermined period.

The risk analysis apparatus 1000 can obtain local variable information from the local variable DB apparatus 3000. [ Local variable information is information needed to analyze typhoon risk and may be information that affects typhoon damage among specific information about the area.

The local variable information may be, for example, land information, building information, terrain information, road information, property value information by region, facility information, and the like. Local variable information may be information needed to calculate the risk of damages caused by typhoons and damage caused by typhoons in typhoon risk analysis.

The risk analysis apparatus 1000 can perform typhoon risk analysis based on information acquired from the weather DB 2000 and the local variable DB 3000. [ A detailed description of the typhoon risk analysis will be described later with a diagram of the typhoon risk analysis method.

The weather database 2000 may be a server apparatus for providing weather information.

For example, the weather database 2000 may be a database of the weather agency that collectively provides domestic weather information, and may be a server apparatus that converts processed weather information into a database based on weather data of a weather station.

The variable DB apparatus 3000 may be a server apparatus for collecting variable information and providing a DB.

The variable DB apparatus 3000 may be provided in several ways depending on the type of variable information. For example, a variable DB device 3000 that provides land information and a variable DB device (DB) that provides building information.

2 is a block diagram of a risk analysis apparatus 1000 according to an embodiment of the present invention.

Referring to FIG. 2, the risk analysis apparatus 1000 may include a communication unit 1100, a display unit 1200, a storage unit 1300, an input unit 1400, and a control unit 1500.

The communication unit 1100 is connected to the weather DB apparatus 2000 and the variable DB apparatus 3000 to transmit and receive data and the display unit 1200 visually outputs a graphic user interface . The storage unit 1300 may store a program necessary for typhoon risk analysis in advance, and the input unit 1400 may receive a user input. In addition, the control unit 1500 can perform typhoon risk analysis and can control the operation of the components included in the risk analysis apparatus 1000. [

The communication unit 1100 is connected to the weather DB apparatus 2000 and the variable DB apparatus 3000 to transmit and receive data. The communication unit 1100 may be connected to the weather DB apparatus 2000 and the variable DB apparatus 3000 through at least one of a wire communication method and a wireless communication method. May be a communication module for use.

The communication unit 1100 can receive data from the weather DB apparatus 2000 and the variable DB apparatus 3000 and transmit the data to the control unit 1500. [

The display unit 1200 can visually output a graphic user interface (GUI) necessary for typhoon risk analysis. The display unit 1200 may output a GUI for inputting a selection required for typhoon risk analysis, and may visually output typhoon risk analysis results.

The storage unit 1300 may store a program necessary for the operation of the risk analysis apparatus 1000 (for example, a program necessary for typhoon risk analysis) in advance, and may store a history of typhoon risk analysis results

The storage unit 1300 may be a flash memory type, a hard disk type, a multimedia card micro type, a card type memory (for example, SD or XD A random access memory (SRAM), a read only memory (ROM), an electrically erasable programmable read-only memory (EEPROM), a programmable read-only memory (PROM) And an optical disc. Also, the storage unit 1300 may be implemented as a web storage that performs a storage function on the Internet.

The input unit 1400 can receive inputs such as a touch and a click of a user and can acquire a signal corresponding to a user's input and transmit the acquired signal to the control unit 1500. The input unit 1400 may be, for example, at least one of a keyboard, a mouse, a tablet, and a jog shuttle.

The control unit 1500 can perform the typhoon risk analysis operation and can control the operation of the components included in the risk analysis apparatus 1000. [

The control unit 1500 can calculate the typhoon risk for a predetermined area based on the weather information and the local variable information and compares the typhoon risk of the target with a visual graphic based on the calculated typhoon risk for the pre- Graphic data can be obtained.

The typhoon risk analysis operation of the control unit 1500 will be described in more detail with reference to FIG.

3 is a flowchart of a typhoon risk analysis method according to an embodiment of the present invention.

Referring to FIG. 3, the typhoon risk analysis method includes a step S100 of obtaining area setting information, a step S110 of obtaining time information, a step S120 of obtaining weather information for a region, A step S130 of obtaining the typhoon risk, a step S140 of calculating the typhoon risk, and a step S160 of outputting the analysis result.

The control unit 1500 can acquire the area setting information (S100).

The control unit 1500 may control the display unit 1100 to output a map, a region name text list, and the like so that the user can select a region. For example, the control unit 1500 may control the user to output a UI for selecting an address such as a country, a city, and a region. For example, the control unit 1500 may output a map of a predetermined area range and obtain local information according to a user's scaling or point selection.

4 is an illustration of an area setting according to an embodiment of the present invention.

As shown in FIG. 4, the Northeast region can be set as the target region according to the region setting, and when the user desires more specific region setting through the input unit 1400, as shown in FIG. 4 (b) The Korean peninsula can be set as the target area. Also, when a more specific area setting is required, the area information can be set in the city unit as shown in FIG. 4 (c), and the area information can be set in a more detailed sub-administrative unit as shown in FIG.

The setting of the local information may be to set the range of application of the damage information on the typhoon and the variable information in the typhoon risk analysis of the present invention.

For example, weather information may include information on various regions. If weather information for all regions is used in full, the processing speed is slowed due to a large amount of processed data, unnecessary information is calculated, Problems such as poor accuracy may occur. Therefore, the area to analyze typhoon risk can be set in advance, so that the necessary information can be selected from the entire weather information.

In addition, even in the case of variable information, the results such as the imperviousness and the drainage capacity necessary for the analysis of the damage risk may be different when the information of the whole country is used, when the information on the head end is used, . Obtaining the variable information based on the information of the more detailed area can obtain more accurate result value, but it may happen that the wide area data is needed depending on the purpose.

The control unit 1500 can obtain the time information (S120).

The control unit 1500 can obtain time information as to whether or not to analyze by using data of a certain time interval in typhoon risk analysis. For example, the control unit 1500 may acquire the time period of the past five years as time information.

More specifically, for example, the control unit 1500 can acquire weather information for the past five years when weather information is acquired, and can calculate the typhoon risk based on the weather information for the past five years.

The control unit 1500 may control the display unit 1200 to output a GUI for selecting the time information, and may set the selected time period as time information based on the selection of the user acquired through the input unit 1400 .

The control unit 1500 can acquire weather information for the area (S120).

For example, the control unit 1500 may obtain information on the hurricane course, range, intensity, maximum wind speed, and central pressure.

In addition, the control unit 1500 can acquire various more detailed weather information about the typhoon.

For example, the control unit 1500 can obtain a wind model for a typhoon (for example, a wind field of a space at a surface (10 m above the ground) where the intensity of a typhoon is given. Another example is weather information such as a blast model, rainfall, storm surge model.

This weather information can be selectively obtained based on the area setting and the time information. For example, the control unit 1500 may further include information on the occurrence of tsunami when the area setting is beach, and may exclude information on tsunami occurrence when the area setting is inland.

In addition, when the time information is past five years, the controller 1500 can acquire information on the course, range, intensity, maximum wind speed, and central pressure of the typhoon that occurred during the past five years.

The control unit 1500 may obtain local variable information for the object (S140).

The control unit 1500 can obtain various variable information that affects the typhoon damage in relation to the object.

For example, the control unit 1500 may obtain local variable information such as imperviousness, drainage, greening rate, building density, and topographic characteristics (e.g., local surface roughness, elevation, lowland) .

The control unit 1500 can obtain the typhoon risk result (S140).

The control unit 1500 can calculate the typhoon risk based on the following equation (1).

<Formula 1>

Risk = Frequency of typhoons * Influence of typhoon (Wind effect + rainfall effect) * Terrain parameter

(Here, frequency of typhoon occurrence is the frequency of typhoon occurrence during an unknown period, the influence of typhoon is calculated based on detailed information of typhoon, and the topographical variable may be a parameter calculated based on the topographical information.)

The control unit 1500 can calculate the frequency of typhoon occurrence, the influence of typhoon, and the risk variable of the terrain variable based on the weather information and local variable information necessary for hurricane risk calculation.

The calculation of each risk variable will be described in more detail below.

The control unit 1500 can calculate the occurrence frequency of the typhoon according to the period.

In typhoon risk, the frequency of typhoons can be the most significant factor in the risk of typhoons.

The control unit 1500 may be provided with various methods for calculating the frequency of typhoon occurrence.

For example, the control unit 1500 can calculate the typhoon occurrence frequency based on the probability distribution function (PDFs).

In another example, the control unit 1500 can select a typhoon based on the weather information based on the weather information, the typhoon including the target area in the range of influence from the occurrence of the typhoon in the past to the extinction. More specifically, a predetermined range from the path of the hurricane may be set as the influence range, and the influence range may be set for each hurricane.

Also, the control unit 1500 can calculate the number of times the typhoon occurs every one year. For example, the control unit 1500 can calculate three typhoons included in the affected area in 2016, and five in 2015 and five in 2014, .

Further, the control unit 1500 can calculate the frequency of occurrence of the typhoon during the time period based on the time information. The control unit 1500 can calculate the average frequency of occurrence of the typhoon during the time interval as the frequency of occurrence of the typhoon. For example, the control unit 1500 can calculate the typhoon included in the influence range of the typhoon occurred for 5 years when the time interval according to the time information is 5 years, The average of the typhoons included in the storm can be calculated.

For this, the control unit 1500 can obtain the path of the typhoon.

For example, the controller 1500 can obtain the path of the typhoon using the Markov-type process.

In another example, the control unit 1500 can acquire information on a past hurricane path based on the weather information. At this time, the controller 1500 can selectively obtain a path for the typhoon occurred in the time period included in the time information.

The control unit 1500 can calculate the influence of the typhoon.

For example, the control unit 1500 can calculate the influence of the typhoon using the Markov-type process using the relative intensity in consideration of the sea surface temperature and the upper airflow condition.

One of the factors affecting typhoon risk may be how strong typhoons have occurred. This is because the same number of typhoons caused more typhoons in areas where stronger typhoons have occurred.

Most damage to typhoons can be caused by rainfall and wind.

Therefore, the control unit 1500 can calculate the wind effect and the rainfall influence based on the weather information.

The controller 1500 can calculate the wind effect for each of the typhoons that affected the target area.

The control unit 1500 can calculate the pressure profile of the typhoon based on the following equation (3).

<Formula 3>

Where r is the distance from the storm center, Pc is the center pressure, Pe is the environmental pressure (typically calculated as 1013 mob), maximum is the maximum wind radius, and B is the shape parameter.

Further, the control unit 1500 can calculate the tangential wind in the center coordinates of the typhoon based on the following equation (4).

<Formula 4>

Where P is the central pressure, Pe is the environmental pressure (typically calculated as 1013 mob), maximum is the maximum wind radius, B is the geometry parameter, V is the tangential wind, r is the distance from the hurricane center, f is the Coriolis parameter, and P is the density of the air.

The controller 1500 can calculate the tangential wind in the target area of the typhoon using the distance from the center of the typhoon to the center of the target area in the variable r in Equation 4. [

The controller 1500 can calculate the average tangential wind of the typhoons that affected the target area. The average tangential winds calculated here can be wind influencing variables.

Also, in the calculation of the wind influencing variables, the geographical characteristics of the target area can be further considered. Generally, terrain such as gorges can show relatively strong wind intensity compared to flat land. In particular, the winds near the surface of the earth, which directly affect the damage to the strong winds, are greatly affected by the topographical factors.

Accordingly, the control unit 1500 can calculate the wind influencing variables by weighting the roughness of the surface of the target area, whether there is a canyon area, and the surrounding altitude.

The control unit 1500 can calculate the rainfall influence on the target area.

For example, the control unit 1500 can calculate the amount of rain that may occur during the typhoon using the previously stored non-motel.

For example, the control unit 1500 determines whether or not the rainfall intensity of the typhoon occurs in the typhoon period (more specifically, the period in which the target region is included in the influence range of the typhoon) Rainfall information can be obtained. Also, the control unit 1500 can calculate at least one of the maximum rainfall amount and the average rainfall amount during the typhoon period as rainfall influence variables.

The rainfall influencing variables for this rainfall amount can be directly used in the millimeter unit, but the present invention is not limited to this, and a conversion value corresponding to the actual rainfall amount can be used.

For example, 1mm can be converted to a conversion value of 0.1 and calculated as a rainfall influencing variable.

For another example, a rainfall effect variable may be a transform value according to the interval.

More specifically, for example, the interval of 0 to 1 mm can be converted into a conversion value of 0.1 and calculated as a rainfall influencing variable, and a range of 1 to 2 mm can be converted into a conversion value of 0.2, and thus can be calculated as a rainfall influencing variable.

The control unit 1500 can calculate the terrain parameters for the target area.

Terrain parameters can be variables to take into account topographical factors such as, for example, imperviousness, drainage, greening rate, building density, and topographical characteristics of the target area.

These terrain parameters can be calculated based on the information obtained from the variable DB device.

The terrain parameters can be directly used in statistical numerical units (for example,%, etc.) generally used, but the present invention is not limited to this, and the conversion value corresponding to the actual rainfall amount can be used.

For example, in the case of imperviousness, 10% is converted to a conversion value of 0.1 and can be calculated as a rainfall influence variable, which is over the proportion of impervious area such as road pavement to the area.

As another example, a terrain variable may be a transform value according to a section.

More specifically, for example, the interval of 1 to 10% can be converted into a conversion value of 0.1 and calculated as a rainfall influencing variable, and a range of 11 to 19 mm can be converted to a conversion value of 0.2 and calculated as a rainfall influencing variable.

The control unit 1500 can calculate typhoon risk for the entire area. Further, the control unit 1500 can calculate typhoon risk by subdividing the area.

For example, typhoon risk can be calculated for each lattice interval after latticing one area at intervals of 1 km.

In addition, the control unit 1500 can further calculate the additional risk in addition to the typhoon risk.

This additional risk can be calculated only when it is set according to the user's option selection.

For example, when the risk option for rainfall is selected, the control unit 1500 can calculate the risk for normal rainfall in addition to the period in which the typhoon occurs.

In the case of rainfall effect variable calculation, only the data during the typhoon occurrence period was calculated. However, the rainfall risk can be calculated based on the data of rainfall during the whole period of rainfall.

More specifically, the control unit 1500 can calculate the average rainfall per year in the target area, and calculate the average rainfall during the time interval.

In addition, the control unit 1500 can calculate the rainfall risk by weighting the maximum rainfall amount with respect to the rainfall occurring during the rainfall period. In addition, the controller 1500 can calculate the rainfall risk by further considering the topography variable.

In another example, the control unit 1500 may calculate a tsunami risk for a tsunami.

The control unit 1500 can calculate the haze risk only when the target area is located within a predetermined distance from the shoreline. For this, the control unit 1500 can obtain the shoreline information from the variable DB apparatus 3000.

In addition, the controller 1500 may determine that there is a risk for tsunami when the target area is located within a predetermined altitude range (for example, 30 meters) from the coastline. In addition, the control unit 1500 can calculate the risk of tsunami by giving a weight to tsunami prevention facilities such as a breakwater installed in the target area. For example, the control unit 1500 can calculate the haze risk by considering the maximum tidal height, the average tidal height, and the breakwater height.

The control unit 1500 can control to output the analysis result (S150).

The control unit 1500 may control the display unit 1200 to output the calculated analysis result. Further, the control unit 1500 may control the communication unit 1100 to transmit the calculated analysis result to the external device.

4 is an exemplary diagram illustrating a risk analysis GUI and an analysis result output according to an embodiment of the present invention.

The risk analysis GUI and the analysis result output through the display unit 1200 as shown in FIG. 4 can be output to different areas.

The risk analysis GUI can output objects for inputting the settings for the risk analysis. For example, the risk analysis GUI may be provided with an object capable of selecting at least one risk analysis type of typhoon, rainfall, and tsunami.

Also, the risk analysis GUI may be provided with an object capable of setting time information and local information. For example, as shown in FIG. 4, an object capable of setting an analysis scope and an object capable of setting a data range can be provided in the risk analysis GUI. Also, the risk analysis GUI may be provided with an object that can set the target area by setting the area information such as the area coverage of country, city, and the like.

The result of the risk analysis can output the topographical information including the target area, and the risk analysis result can be overlapped on the outputted topographical information.

The results of the risk analysis can be divided into different colors in order to classify the risk by section. In addition, the result of the risk analysis can output the comprehensive risk calculation result of the target area, and at least a part of the variable information used in the risk calculation can be outputted.

In addition, more detailed information can be provided in the risk analysis results. For example, as shown in FIG. 4, detailed related information such as a total number of typhoons, an average wind speed, a maximum wind speed, and the like may be further provided.

The results of the risk analysis can also be provided with objects that can adjust the scope of analysis of the results. For example, as shown in FIG. 4, an analysis range can be listed and an object can be provided that can adjust the desired range to view the result within the analysis range.

While the present invention has been described with reference to exemplary embodiments, it is to be understood that the invention is not limited to the disclosed exemplary embodiments, but, on the contrary, It will be apparent to those skilled in the art that changes or modifications may fall within the scope of the appended claims.

10000 Risk Analysis System
1000 Risk Analyzer
1100 communication section
1200 display unit
1300 storage unit
1400 input unit
1500 control unit
2000 weather DB device
3000 variable DB device

Claims (14)

As a risk analysis method for analyzing the risk of typhoon,
Obtaining region setting information for a target region for performing the risk analysis;
Obtaining time information on a temporal range of data to be used for the risk analysis;
Obtaining weather information for the target area based on the area setting information;
Obtaining variable information for the target area;
Calculating a risk analysis result based on the weather information and the variable information on a time interval included in the time information among the weather information on the target area; And
And outputting the risk analysis result,
The risk analysis result is calculated on the basis of the occurrence frequency of the typhoon, the influence of the typhoon, and the terrain parameter, the influence of the typhoon includes the wind effect and the rainfall effect,
The wind impact is calculated based on the tangential wind, distance from the hurricane center, central pressure, environmental pressure, maximum wind radius, shape parameter, Coriolis parameter, air density
Risk analysis method.
delete delete The method according to claim 1,
The risk analysis result is calculated based on the following equation
Risk analysis method.

Equation 1
Risk = Frequency of typhoons * Influence of typhoon (Wind effect + rainfall effect) * Terrain parameter
(Where the frequency of typhoons is the frequency of typhoons during an unspecified period of time, the influence of typhoons is calculated based on detailed information of typhoons, and the topographical variables are calculated based on topographical information)
5. The method of claim 4,
The frequency of occurrence of the typhoon is calculated based on a probability distribution function (PDFs)
Risk analysis method.
5. The method of claim 4,
The frequency of occurrence of the typhoon is an average value of the number of typhoons generated in the target area during the time period,
Risk analysis method.
The method according to claim 6,
The wind effect is calculated based on the following equation
Risk analysis method.
expression

(Where r is the tangential wind, r is the distance from the hurricane center, Pc is the center pressure, Pe is the environmental pressure (typically calculated as 1013 mob), maximum is the maximum wind radius, Variable, f is the Coriolis parameter, and P is the density of the air)
8. The method of claim 7,
The above-described rainfall effect is a conversion value corresponding to the maximum rainfall amount and the average rainfall amount during the period included in the influence range of the typhoon
Risk analysis method.
9. The method of claim 8,
The terrain parameter is calculated based on at least one of imperviousness, drainage, greening rate, building density, and topographic characteristics of the target area
Risk analysis method.
10. The method of claim 9,
Further comprising calculating at least one of a tsunami risk and a rainfall risk
Risk analysis method.
11. The method of claim 10,
The tsunami risk is calculated based on the altitude from the shoreline and the specification of the anti-tsunami facility installed in the target area when the target area is located within a predetermined distance from the shoreline and within a predetermined altitude
Risk analysis method.
12. The method of claim 11,
The rainfall risk is calculated by calculating an average rainfall amount and a maximum rainfall amount during the time period based on the annual rainfall amount of the target area in a target area, and taking into consideration the average rainfall amount, the maximum rainfall amount,
Risk analysis method.
A recording medium on which a program for performing the method according to any one of claims 1 to 4, is recorded.
It is a risk analyzer that performs risk analysis to analyze the risk of typhoon,
A communication unit for acquiring weather information and variable information required for the risk analysis; And
Acquiring region setting information for a region to be subjected to the risk analysis, acquiring time information about a temporal range of data to be used for the risk analysis, acquiring weather information for the region based on the region setting information, Wherein the risk information analysis unit obtains the variable information for the target area, calculates a risk analysis result based on the weather information and the variable information for the time interval included in the time information among the weather information for the target area, And a control unit for controlling the output of the analysis result
The risk analysis result is calculated on the basis of the occurrence frequency of the typhoon, the influence of the typhoon, and the terrain parameter, the influence of the typhoon includes the wind effect and the rainfall effect,
The wind impact is calculated based on the tangential wind, distance from the hurricane center, central pressure, environmental pressure, maximum wind radius, shape parameter, Coriolis parameter, air density
Risk analysis equipment.

Images