JP2007040949A - System for predicting seismic motion utilizing real-time seismic information - Google Patents

Abstract

<P>PROBLEM TO BE SOLVED: To provide a system for predicting seismic motion permitting prediction of the level of shaking at presupposed positions before arrival of the main motion of the seismic motion utilizing real-time seismic information. <P>SOLUTION: The system is provided with: a scenario seismic database storing presupposed seismic motion data including seismic conditions including combinations of a plurality of presupposed seismic-center positions and the magnitudes and the maximum response values at the presupposed positions calculated using the same; a receiving means for receiving real-time seismic information including the seismic-center position and the magnitude detected at the occurrence of an earthquake; a comparison extraction means for comparing the real-time seismic information received by the receiving means and the seismic condition corresponding to the real-time seismic information in the scenario seismic database to extract presupposed seismic motion data using the most approximate seismic condition; and an output means outputting the presupposed seismic motion data extracted by the comparison extraction means. <P>COPYRIGHT: (C)2007,JPO&INPIT

Description

  The present invention relates to a seismic motion prediction system using real-time earthquake information for predicting the magnitude of shaking at an assumed position of a specific building or the like based on real-time earthquake information available when an earthquake occurs.

  As is well known, seismic waves include P-waves (initial tremors) with a fast propagation speed and S-waves (major movements) with a large amplitude that cause a large vibration but slow propagation speed. In recent years, real-time earthquake information related to the earthquake has been obtained from the P waves detected near the epicenter at the time of the earthquake, such as the Earthquake Early Warning of the Japan Meteorological Agency and the Real-time Earthquake Information Utilization System (REIS) of the National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Prevention. Various systems that can be obtained immediately have been developed.

  In addition, a network system that distributes real-time earthquake information obtained by the system via the Internet or satellite communication is also being put into practical use. By using the real-time earthquake information, the magnitude of the earthquake that occurred within a few seconds after the earthquake occurred. And information on the location of the epicenter.

  And at a point away from the epicenter by several kilometers or more, there is a margin of several seconds to several tens of seconds until the main motion of the ground motion due to the S wave arrives. For this reason, research on so-called real-time earthquake disaster prevention that uses the margin time to prevent occurrence of earthquake damage based on the real-time earthquake information has been actively conducted. The following Patent Document 1 relates to a conventional method for determining an epicenter using this type of real-time earthquake information.

  However, since the above real-time earthquake information is limited to information such as the magnitude of the earthquake that occurred, the location of the epicenter, and the depth of the epicenter, real-time estimation of the magnitude of the earthquake has become possible, but it can be specified by the earthquake that occurred. It is not possible to know the magnitude of the earthquake motion at the assumed position of the earthquake, and the earthquake motion waveform such as the change of the earthquake motion, the arrival time of the peak, or the duration of the earthquake motion before the earthquake reaches There was a point.

  On the other hand, in recent years, it is possible to model and calculate all complex reflections, refractions, or amplifications that match the seismic wave propagation characteristics and ground characteristics from the failure process of the fault at the epicenter, in the event of a future earthquake. Various analysis methods for predicting in detail earthquake motion that may occur in the surrounding area are being developed (for example, see Patent Document 2 below).

  In general, these analysis methods first propagate in the ground by modeling a hypocenter model that can represent inhomogeneous fault rupture and a three-dimensional model of an underground structure in a plain-scale area including the assumed position. 3D finite difference method (1 and 2 below), 3D finite element Method (the following non-patent document 3), wave number integration method (the following non-patent document 4), area reduction method (the following non-patent documents 5 and 6), empirical Green function method (the following non-patent document 7) or statistical green The seismic wave at the assumed position is calculated by various analysis methods such as a function method (the following non-patent document 8).

JP 2003-114281 A JP 2003-139863 A Graves, R.W .: Simulating Seismic Wave Propagation in 3D Elastic Media Using Staggered-grid Finite differences, Bull. Seism. Soc. Am., Vol.86, pp.1091-1106, 1996 Toshiro Maeda, Tomoaki Yoshimura, Yasuo Uchiyama, Norio Ikeda, Shinichi Nanai: Wave propagation analysis in the Kanto Plain by three-dimensional difference method -Examination of two sub-events in the Kanto earthquake-, Summary of Annual Conference of Architectural Institute of Japan, B- 2, pp.175-176, 1998 Bao, H., J. Bielak, O. Ghattas, LF Kallivokas, DR O'Hallaron, JR Shewchuk and J. Xu: Large-scale Simulation of Elastic Wave Propagation in Heterogeneous Media on Parallel Computers, Computer Methods Appl. Mech. Eng ., 152, pp.85-102, 1998 Yoshiaki Hisada: Efficient calculation of normal mode solution and Green's function in stratified soil, Architectural Institute of Japan, No.501, pp.49-56, 1997 J. Bielak, K. Loukakis, Y. Hisada and C. Yoshimura: Domain Reduction Method for Three-Dimensional Earthquake Modeling in Localized Regions, Part1: Theory, Bull. Seism. Soc. Am., Vol.93, pp.817- 824, 2003 Yoshimura, C., J. Belak, Y. Hisada and A. Fernandez: Domain Reduction Method for Three-Dimensional Earthquake Modeling in Localized Regions, Part 2: Verification ad Applications, Bull. Seism. Soc. Am., Vol. 93, pp .825-840, 2003 Irikura, K .: Prediction of Strong Acceleration Motion Using Empirical Green ’s Function, Proc. 7th Japan Earthquake Engineering Symposium, pp.151-156, 1991 Katsuhiro Kamae, Kojiro Irikura, Yasushi Fukuchi: Predicting strong ground motions during large earthquakes based on earthquake scaling law Prediction by statistical waveform synthesis method, Architectural Institute of Japan, Proc. 9, 1991

According to the analysis method for predicting seismic motion, it is possible to predict seismic motion at a specific position with respect to an earthquake assumed with relatively high accuracy.
However, in any of the above analysis methods, there is no established method for predicting earthquake motion at a specific location away from the epicenter in real time for earthquakes that have occurred in real time, and it is hoped that development will be possible. It is rare.

  The present invention has been made in view of such circumstances, and by using the real-time earthquake information, it is possible to predict the magnitude of shaking at a certain assumed position with high accuracy before the arrival of the main motion of the earthquake motion. It is an object to provide an earthquake motion prediction system using real-time earthquake information.

  In order to solve the above problem, the invention described in claim 1 includes an earthquake condition including a combination of a plurality of assumed source positions and magnitudes in advance, and a maximum response value at the assumed position calculated using the earthquake condition. Scenario earthquake database storing assumed earthquake motion data, receiving means for receiving real-time earthquake information including information on the location and magnitude of the epicenter detected at the time of the earthquake, the real-time earthquake information received by the receiving means, and the scenario earthquake Comparison extraction means for comparing the earthquake conditions corresponding to the real-time earthquake information in the database and extracting the assumed earthquake motion data using the closest earthquake condition, and the assumption extracted by the comparison extraction means Characterized by comprising output means for outputting earthquake motion data Is shall.

  The invention according to claim 2 is an earthquake condition including a combination of a plurality of assumed hypocenter positions and magnitudes in advance, an assumed ground motion data including a maximum response value at an assumed position calculated using the earthquake condition, and Receive scenario earthquake database containing estimated ground motion data including ground motion waveforms at multiple seismic stations calculated for earthquake conditions, and real-time earthquake information including information on the location and magnitude detected at the time of the earthquake. From the real-time earthquake information received by the receiving means and the receiving means, the observed ground motion waveform due to the earthquake actually observed by the receiving means at the observation station installed at a position closer to the epicenter than the assumed position In addition to receiving information, the scenario earthquake database above Multiple ground motion waveforms corresponding to the seismic conditions of the real-time seismic information at the station are extracted from the estimated ground motion data at the station, and the seismic motion waveform is compared with the observed ground motion waveform to obtain the most approximate seismic motion waveform. The earthquake condition used for the calculation of the earthquake is determined, and the comparison ground extraction means for extracting the ground motion data corresponding to the earthquake condition from the scenario earthquake database, and the assumed ground motion data extracted by the comparison extraction means are output. Output means.

  Here, in the invention described in claim 3, the comparison extraction unit described in claim 2 is used for calculating the most approximate earthquake motion waveform by comparing a plurality of the earthquake motion waveforms and the observed earthquake motion waveforms. When determining the earthquake condition, the maximum observed amplitude value within a certain time is calculated from the observed ground motion waveform, and the maximum amplitude value within each certain time is calculated from the plurality of ground motion waveforms to calculate the maximum observed amplitude. Compared with the value, the seismic wave waveform having the smallest difference is set as the seismic wave waveform that most closely approximates the observed seismic wave waveform.

  The invention according to claim 4 is the invention according to any one of claims 1 to 3, wherein the assumed position is a ground at a specific position, a specific part of a structure built on the ground, or the structure. It is a specific location of the storage items installed in the object, and the assumed ground motion data is the ground motion waveform of the ground, the seismic motion waveform and the response waveform of the structure, or the seismic motion waveform and the structure. And the maximum response value at the assumed position calculated using the response waveform in the stored item.

  Furthermore, the invention according to claim 5 is the invention according to any one of claims 1 to 4, wherein the long-period region of the earthquake motion waveform in the assumed earthquake motion data is a three-dimensional difference method, a three-dimensional finite element method, It is calculated by a wave number integration method or a region reduction method, and its short period region is calculated by an empirical Green function method or a statistical Green function method.

  The invention according to claim 6 is the invention according to any one of claims 1 to 5, wherein the scenario earthquake database stores names of earthquakes corresponding to the earthquake conditions and the output means. Outputs the name of the earthquake corresponding to the assumed earthquake motion data.

  According to the earthquake motion prediction system using real-time earthquake information according to any one of claims 1, 4, 5, and 6, with respect to a plurality of assumed hypocenter positions where occurrence of a large earthquake is predicted in advance, We have created a scenario earthquake database containing earthquake conditions including a combination with magnitude and assumed ground motion data including the maximum response value calculated at a specific assumed location using this, so it is necessary to increase the Accurate earthquake motion prediction data can be obtained.

  In order to obtain such highly accurate seismic motion prediction data, as a method of calculating the seismic motion waveform at the assumed position from the above seismic conditions, in particular, as in the invention according to claim 5, for a long period region, 3 It is preferable to use a dimensional difference method, a three-dimensional finite element method, a wave number integration method, or a region reduction method, and to use an empirical Green function method or a statistical Green function method for a short period region.

  Then, using the scenario earthquake database, real-time earthquake information including information on the epicenter position and magnitude received by the receiving means at the time of occurrence of the earthquake by the contrast extracting means, and the real-time earthquake information in the scenario earthquake database corresponding to the real-time earthquake information By comparing the seismic conditions and extracting the assumed earthquake motion data using the most approximate earthquake conditions, it is possible to predict the magnitude of the shaking at the assumed position with high accuracy before reaching the main motion of the earthquake motion. It becomes possible to do.

Here, as the assumed position, as in the invention according to claim 4, the specific position of the ground at the specific position or the structure constructed on the ground, or the specification of the stored item installed in the structure A place can be taken.
Incidentally, when the specific position is the ground at the specific position, the maximum response value calculated from the ground motion waveform of the ground with respect to the earthquake condition can be used as the assumed ground motion data.

  Further, when the specific position is a specific location of the structure constructed on the ground, the maximum response at the location calculated from the response waveform of the structure by response analysis using the ground motion waveform of the ground A value can be used. Further, when the specific position is a specific location of the stored item installed in the structure, the response waveform of the structure and the response waveform of the stored item are obtained by response analysis using the ground motion waveform of the ground. The maximum response value at the above location calculated from the above can be used.

  On the other hand, in the invention according to any one of claims 2, 3, and 6, as in the invention according to claim 1, the scenario earthquake database previously stores a plurality of assumed hypocenter positions where occurrence of a large earthquake is predicted. In addition to storing the assumed ground motion data at the assumed position, in addition to this, the assumed ground motion data at the plurality of earthquake stations calculated in the same manner for the plurality of assumed source positions are stored.

  When the receiving means receives the real-time earthquake information when an earthquake occurs, the comparison extracting means selects one observatory or a plurality of observing stations located closer to the epicenter than the assumed position based on this information. Then, the observation ground motion waveform information by the earthquake actually observed at the observation station selected by the receiving means is obtained.

  Then, the contrast extraction means extracts a plurality of seismic motion waveforms corresponding to the seismic conditions of the real-time seismic information at the station from the assumed ground motion data in the scenario earthquake database. And the above-mentioned seismic waveform that is most approximated is selected. Then, by determining the earthquake condition used for the calculation of the seismic motion waveform selected in this way and extracting the assumed earthquake motion data corresponding to the earthquake condition from the scenario earthquake database, the main motion of the ground motion is similarly detected. Before reaching, it is possible to predict the magnitude of shaking at the assumed position with high accuracy.

  In addition, when the said contrast extraction means determines the said conditions used for the calculation of the said most approximate seismic waveform by comparing the said several seismic waveform and the said observed seismic waveform, For example, Claim 3 As in the invention, the maximum observed amplitude value within a certain time is calculated from the observed ground motion waveform, and the maximum amplitude value within the certain time is also calculated for a plurality of extracted ground motion waveforms, and the two are compared. If the seismic wave waveform having a small difference is selected, the above-mentioned most approximate seismic wave waveform can be determined easily and in a short time.

By the way, with the previous Hyogoken-Nanbu Earthquake, investigations have been conducted on earthquakes that occur in the trench and inland areas. For example, the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology / Earthquake Research Promotion Headquarters investigates earthquake occurrence intervals, the latest earthquake occurrence year, etc., and evaluates future earthquake occurrence probabilities for major earthquakes. From these results, it has been reported that there is a high possibility that magnitude 7-8 class earthquakes that occur in the trench areas such as Miyagi-ken Oki Earthquake, Tokai Earthquake, Tonankai Earthquake, Nankai Earthquake etc. will occur in the future.
For such scenario earthquakes with high probability of occurrence, earthquake damage is assumed mainly by the national and local governments, and public relations activities and disaster prevention drills are conducted based on this.

  However, since the earthquake information delivered as real-time earthquake information at present is only information on the epicenter location (northern latitude, east longitude, epicenter depth) and the magnitude of the earthquake, the delivered earthquake information is symmetric with the above disaster prevention drills etc. It cannot be judged whether it corresponds to the scenario earthquake. For this reason, it is conceivable that the user cannot surely take evacuation behavior or the like assumed in advance for a scenario earthquake that is likely to occur.

  In this regard, according to the invention described in claim 6, the scenario earthquake database stores in advance the names of earthquakes corresponding to the earthquake conditions (for example, occurrence of Tokai earthquake, occurrence of Tonankai earthquake, etc.), and the output means However, in order to output the name of the earthquake that was the basis of the extracted earthquake motion data, the scenario earthquake that could not be determined immediately by the information about the location of the epicenter and the magnitude that has been distributed in the past. The name can be distributed to the user.

  As a result, the user can immediately grasp the name of the earthquake, along with highly accurate earthquake motion prediction data such as seismic intensity, maximum acceleration value, duration of shaking, and magnitude of shaking at the building. Therefore, since it becomes possible to take an evacuation action or the like assumed in advance, it becomes possible to effectively reduce the damage.

(Embodiment 1)
FIG. 1 shows a first embodiment of a seismic motion prediction system using real-time earthquake information according to the present invention.
This prediction system occurs at an assumed position (Y ₁ , Y ₂ , Y ₃ ) in a specific building (structure) 1 when a large earthquake occurs within a range of several hundred km. This is for predicting the magnitude (maximum response value) of the seismic motion. Incidentally, Y ₁ is a point on the ground where the building 1 is built, Y ₂ is a specific location in the building 1, and Y ₃ is a specific location of the equipment 2 installed in the building 1. is there.

  The building 1 has an antenna (receiving means) 3 for receiving real-time earthquake information emitted from the REIS of the National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Prevention via satellite communication and the Internet for receiving via the Internet. A communication line (receiving means) 4 is provided. In addition, a general-purpose computer in which real-time earthquake information from the receiving means 3 and 4 is set to be able to be captured at all times, and a program for predicting the magnitude of shaking of the earthquake motion from the captured real-time earthquake information ( (Contrast extraction means) 5 is installed.

Further, a scenario earthquake database 6 is connected to the computer 5. The scenario earthquake database 6 includes scenario earthquake conditions (X, Y, Z, M) that combine a plurality of assumed hypocenter positions (east longitude X, north latitude Y, depth Z) and magnitude (M) in advance, Commonly used earthquake names for earthquake conditions (Miyagi-ken Oki earthquake, Tokai earthquake, Tonankai earthquake, Nankai earthquake, etc.) and the assumed position of building 1 calculated using this earthquake condition (Y ₁ , Y ₂ , Y ₃ ) The assumed ground motion data consisting of the ground motion waveform and the maximum response value are stored. Furthermore, a monitor (output means) 7 is connected to the computer 5 for displaying assumed earthquake motion data in the scenario earthquake database 6 extracted and output by the procedure described later.

Here, the assumed ground motion data stored in the scenario earthquake database 6 includes an assumed scenario earthquake source model and a ground model that three-dimensionally models the underground structure of a plain area including the construction site of the building 1. The seismic motion waveform at the assumed position Y ₁ and the magnitude of the maximum shake are calculated using various analysis methods described later.

  That is, first, a plurality of assumed hypocenter positions (east longitude X, north latitude Y, depth Z) where occurrence of a large earthquake is predicted are determined. And, for each assumed hypocenter location (X, Y, Z) and multiple stages of magnitude (M) at the assumed hypocenter location, how to destroy the fault (destruction direction, failure progression speed, failure progression time) and release from the fault The seismic source model is created by modeling the amount of energy (earthquake moment, stress drop, asperity position, slip amount).

At this time, fault models of earthquakes that occurred in the past for which research results have already been published, “Recipes for evaluating strong ground motions of earthquakes occurring on active faults” and “trench-type earthquakes” widely used in national projects, etc. Each parameter is modeled with reference to “Recipe for Strong Ground Motion Evaluation”.
FIG. 4 is an example of a hypocenter model that is modeled in consideration of the hypocenter position and the region with a large and small slip amount.

  For the above ground model, refer to the borehole data, PS logging data, reflection method exploration results, gravity anomaly data, microtremor measurement results, etc. in the plain area including the construction site of building 1 for each stratum. It is created by modeling physical property values (S wave velocity, density, layer thickness, attenuation characteristics).

Here, when detailed information about the data is obtained, the three-dimensional shape of the formation boundary is modeled. In addition, when the detailed information is not obtained, the model is assumed assuming a hydrological formation.
FIG. 5 shows an example of a three-dimensional ground model used when calculating the seismic motion waveform by the three-dimensional difference method, the three-dimensional finite element method, and the region reduction method.

Next, the ground motion waveform at the assumed position Y ₁ of the building 1 is calculated using various analysis methods for the comprehensive analysis model using the seismic source model and the ground model thus obtained. At this time, the long-period region of the ground motion waveform is calculated by the three-dimensional difference method, the three-dimensional finite element method, the wave number integration method, or the region reduction method. It is preferable to calculate by a general Green function method.

Incidentally, the three-dimensional difference method is to obtain the seismic wave waveform at the assumed position Y ₁ by calculating the wave equation in the three-dimensional inhomogeneous ground model using the above ground model as an elasticity. This is a known analysis method disclosed in documents 1, 2 and the like.
In the three-dimensional finite element method, the ground model that is three-dimensionally inhomogeneous is replaced with a number of components to calculate the wave equation, and the seismic wave waveform at the assumed position Y ₁ is obtained. This is a well-known analysis method found in Patent Document 3 and the like.

Further, the wave number integration method calculates the Green function method in the elastic stratified ground to obtain the seismic motion waveform at the assumed position Y _1. For example, the well-known analysis disclosed in Non-Patent Document 4 and the like Is the law.
On the other hand, to calculate the ground motion waveform by modeling a large area of ground by the finite element method, the calculation capacity becomes large. Therefore, in the region reduction method, a region that needs to be examined in detail, such as a plain part, is modeled by a detailed three-dimensional finite element method, and other regions are calculated by approximation with a parallel layer. Therefore, there is an advantage that the calculation with the same accuracy can be performed with a smaller calculation capacity than the above-described analysis methods. The specific analysis method of the region reduction method is described in Non-Patent Documents 5 and 6, for example.

Both the empirical Green function method and the statistical Green function method are methods that consider a large earthquake as a set of small earthquakes. The empirical Green function method is near the epicenter of a scenario earthquake (large earthquake). when in occurred small earthquakes observed waveform is obtained at the assumed position Y _1, those superposition of this observation records, and ground motion waveform at expected position Y ₁ when a large earthquake above hypocenter occurs To do.

  On the other hand, the statistical Green's function method creates a ground motion waveform in a small earthquake by simulation when the observed waveform in such a small earthquake is not obtained. The empirical Green function method is disclosed in Non-Patent Document 7 and the like, and the statistical Green function method is disclosed in Non-Patent Document 8 and the like.

In the scenario earthquake database 6, the earthquake motion waveform at the assumed position Y ₁ calculated for the earthquake condition obtained by combining the plurality of assumed source positions obtained by the above analysis method and the magnitude, and the maximum response calculated therefrom. The value is stored. Moreover, this scenario earthquake database 6, ground motion waveform ground motion waveform and the maximum response values at assumed position Y ₂ calculated using the ground motion waveforms and response waveforms of the building 1 in the assumed position Y _1, and at the assumed position Y ₂ and The seismic motion waveform and the maximum response value at the assumed position Y ₂ calculated using the response waveform of the equipment device 2 are stored.

  Next, the function of the computer 5 will be described. As shown in FIG. 2 and FIG. 3, the computer 5 uses the real-time earthquake information received by the antenna 3 or the Internet communication line 4 and detected at the time of the earthquake. An earthquake condition comprising a position (east longitude X0, north latitude Y0, depth Z0) and magnitude (M0) is input.

  Then, the computer 5 refers to the scenario earthquake database 6 and shows the selection formula shown in FIG. 2 for the above earthquake conditions (X0, Y0, Z0, M0) from the assumed earthquake motion data in the database 6. Among the earthquake conditions included in the range, the one calculated using the closest earthquake condition is extracted, and the name of the earthquake attached to the earthquake condition is extracted.

  Regarding the magnitude determination value Δm, it is known from past research that even if the magnitude (M) is the same, the seismic moment may differ by about 10 times. Therefore, it is preferable to set the magnitude corresponding to 1/10 of the earthquake moment of the scenario earthquake as the determination value Δm (= 0.6).

As shown in FIG. 2 and FIG. 3, the seismic motion waveform and the maximum response value at the assumed position (Y ₁ , Y ₂ , Y ₃ ) calculated using the above earthquake condition contrasted and extracted by the computer 5 and the above As shown in FIG. 7, the name of the earthquake corresponding to the earthquake condition is displayed on the monitor 7, so that the magnitude of the ground motion in the building 1 and the publicly known landmark of the earthquake can be grasped instantly. .
In addition, when there is no assumed ground motion data calculated using the earthquake conditions (X, Y, Z, M) within the allowable range in the above selection formula, a simple analysis means such as a distance attenuation formula is used separately. The magnitude of shaking at the assumed position (Y ₁ , Y ₂ , Y ₃ ) is predicted.

Therefore, according to the earthquake motion prediction system using real-time earthquake information having the above-described configuration, a plurality of scenarios combining the assumed earthquake position and the magnitude with respect to a plurality of assumed earthquake source positions where a large earthquake is predicted in advance. The earthquake condition (X, Y, Z, M) of the earthquake and the estimated earthquake motion data with the maximum response value and the earthquake motion waveform at the specific assumed position (Y ₁ , Y ₂ , Y ₃ ) calculated using these were stored Since the scenario earthquake database 6 is created, highly accurate earthquake motion prediction data at the assumed positions (Y ₁ , Y ₂ , Y ₃ ) can be obtained in advance.

Then, using the scenario earthquake database 6, real-time earthquake information on the epicenter position (X 0, Y 0, Z 0) and magnitude (M 0) received by the computer 5 by the receiving means such as the antenna 3 or the Internet communication line 4 when the earthquake occurs. And the corresponding earthquake conditions (X, Y, Z, M) in the scenario earthquake database 6 are extracted, and the estimated ground motion data calculated using the closest earthquake condition is extracted and displayed on the monitor 7. Thus, before the arrival of the main motion of the earthquake motion, it is possible to predict the magnitude of the shaking at the assumed position (Y ₁ , Y ₂ , Y ₃ ), the duration of the shaking, and the like with high accuracy.

In addition, since the names of earthquakes corresponding to the above earthquake conditions stored in the scenario earthquake database in advance (for example, Tokai earthquake occurrence, Tonankai earthquake occurrence, etc.) can be instantly known, the assumed position (Y ₁ , Y ₂ , Y ₃ ), the seismic intensity, maximum acceleration value, duration of shaking, high-precision earthquake motion prediction data such as the magnitude of shaking in the building, and the name of the earthquake can be immediately grasped. Since it is possible to take an evacuation action assumed in advance, an effective damage reduction effect can be obtained.

(Embodiment 2)
Also in the second embodiment of the earthquake motion prediction system using real-time earthquake information according to the present invention, the basic system configuration is the same as that shown in FIG. The comparison / extraction function in the computer 5 using the scenario earthquake database 6 and the scenario earthquake database 6.

  As is well known, especially in areas where major earthquakes are expected, there are many seismic stations with seismographs installed. A system has been developed to transmit the seismic waveform resulting from the above-mentioned large earthquake measured at the observatory.

In the present embodiment, in order to use an actual seismic wave waveform transmitted in real time from such an earthquake observatory, the earthquake condition (X in the assumed earthquake source positions shown in the first embodiment is stored in the scenario earthquake database 6. , Y, Z, M) in addition to the assumed earthquake motion data at the assumed position (Y ₁ , Y ₂ , Y ₃ ) and the earthquake name corresponding to the earthquake conditions (X, Y, Z, M), In addition, observation ground motion data is stored.

  The assumed ground motion data of the observatory is based on the above earthquake conditions (X, Y, Z, M) at a plurality of assumed source positions and the respective earthquake observations calculated using the earthquake conditions (X, Y, Z, M). Including the seismic waveform at the station.

  The functions of the computer 5 will be described. In the computer 5 of the present embodiment, first, as in the first embodiment, the real-time earthquake information detected by the antenna 3 or the Internet communication line 4 and detected at the time of the earthquake occurs. The earthquake condition comprising the epicenter position (east longitude X0, north latitude Y0, depth Z0) and magnitude (M0) is input.

Then, in the computer 5, the information of the hypocenter (X0, Y0, Z0), are placed in a position close to the expected position _{(Y 1, Y 2, Y} 3) the focal position than (X0, Y0, Z0) The observation station is selected, and the receiving means 3 and 4 receive the observed ground motion waveform information of the earthquake actually observed at the observation station.

Next, a plurality of seismic motion waveforms corresponding to the seismic conditions (X0, Y0, Z0, M0) of the real-time seismic information at the observing station are extracted from the assumed ground motion data in the scenario earthquake database 6, and these seismic motion waveforms are extracted. And the received observed ground motion waveform. At this time, as shown in FIG. 6, first, an observed maximum amplitude value within a certain time ΔT from t ₁ to t _n is calculated from the observed ground motion waveform. In parallel with this, the maximum amplitude value within the predetermined time ΔT is calculated for each of the extracted plurality of the above-mentioned ground motion waveforms (in the figure, two examples of scenario 1 ground motion waveform and scenario 2 ground motion waveform are shown).

Then, the observed maximum amplitude value A _{max of} the observed ground motion waveform is compared with the maximum amplitude values B _max , C _max , D _max ... Of the plurality of ground motion waveforms, and the difference between the two (| A _max −B _max | = β ₁ , | A _max −C _max | = β ₂ , | A _max −D _max | = β ₃ ,..., And the smallest difference α = min (β ₁ , β ₂ , β ₃ ,. β _n ) is selected, and it is determined whether or not the difference α is less than or equal to the fitness determination value γ (α ≦ γ).

Here, the goodness-of-fit determination value γ can be appropriately set according to the desired prediction accuracy. For example, the residual of the maximum amplitude value between the observed ground motion waveform and the assumed ground motion waveform is allowed up to 20%. In this case, γ = 0.2 A _max .

In this way, the seismic motion waveform that is closest to the observed seismic motion waveform is determined, and the seismic conditions (X, Y, Z, M) used for the calculation of the seismic motion waveform are the same seismic conditions (X, Y, Z, The assumed ground motion data at the assumed position (Y ₁ , Y ₂ , Y ₃ ) calculated for M) and the name of the earthquake attached to the earthquake condition are extracted. Then, by displaying the assumed earthquake motion data and the name of the earthquake on the monitor 7 as shown in FIG. 7, the magnitude of the earthquake motion in the building 1 can be grasped instantaneously as in the first embodiment.

  Therefore, even in the earthquake motion prediction system using the real-time earthquake information shown in the second embodiment, the same effect as that shown in the first embodiment can be obtained.

It is a schematic block diagram which shows embodiment of the prediction system of the seismic motion using the real-time earthquake information of this invention. It is a flowchart which shows the procedure in which the computer of FIG. 1 extracts the assumption ground motion data using the earthquake condition which approximates real-time earthquake information most. It is a flowchart which shows the procedure in which a computer extracts the assumption earthquake motion data in a scenario earthquake database based on the flowchart of FIG. It is a figure which shows an example of the hypocenter model used when calculating assumption ground motion data. It is a figure which shows an example of the three-dimensional ground model used when calculating assumption earthquake motion data. It is a figure in the 2nd Embodiment of this invention which shows the procedure at the time of determining the earthquake motion waveform which a computer approximates to the observed earthquake motion waveform most. It is a figure which shows the display form to the output means in the said embodiment.

Explanation of symbols

1 Building 2 Equipment (Storage)
3 Antenna (reception means)
4 Internet communication line (reception means)
5 Computer (contrast extraction means)
6 Scenario earthquake database 7 Monitor (output means)
Y ₁ , Y ₂ , Y ₃ assumed position

Claims (6)

A scenario earthquake database containing earthquake conditions including a combination of a plurality of assumed hypocenter positions and magnitudes in advance, and assumed ground motion data including maximum response values at the assumed positions calculated using the earthquake conditions;
Receiving means for receiving real-time earthquake information including information on the location of the epicenter and magnitude detected at the time of the earthquake;
Compare the real-time earthquake information received by the receiving means with the earthquake conditions corresponding to the real-time earthquake information in the scenario earthquake database, and extract the assumed earthquake motion data using the most approximate earthquake condition Contrast extraction means;
Output means for outputting the assumed earthquake motion data extracted by the contrast extraction means;
An earthquake motion prediction system using real-time earthquake information characterized by comprising: Preliminary earthquake conditions including a combination of multiple hypothetical source positions and magnitudes, as well as assumed ground motion data including maximum response values at the assumed positions calculated using the earthquake conditions, and multiple earthquake observations calculated for the above earthquake conditions A scenario earthquake database that contains observational ground motion data including seismic motion waveforms at stations,
Receiving means for receiving real-time earthquake information including information on the location of the epicenter and magnitude detected at the time of the earthquake;
From the real-time earthquake information received by the receiving means, the observed ground motion waveform information by the earthquake actually observed at the observation station installed at a position closer to the epicenter than the assumed position is received by the receiving means. In addition, a plurality of seismic motion waveforms corresponding to the seismic conditions of the real-time seismic information at the station are extracted from the assumed ground motion data in the scenario earthquake database, and these seismic motion waveforms and the observed seismic motion waveforms are compared. A contrast extraction means for determining the earthquake condition used for calculating the most approximate seismic motion waveform and extracting the assumed earthquake motion data corresponding to the earthquake condition from the scenario earthquake database;
Output means for outputting the assumed earthquake motion data extracted by the contrast extraction means;
An earthquake motion prediction system using real-time earthquake information characterized by comprising:   The comparison extraction unit compares the plurality of the seismic motion waveforms with the observed seismic motion waveform, and determines the seismic condition used in the calculation of the most approximate seismic motion waveform within a certain time from the observed seismic motion waveform. In addition to calculating the observed maximum amplitude value, the maximum amplitude value within each fixed time is calculated from the plurality of seismic motion waveforms and compared with the observed maximum amplitude value, and the seismic motion waveform having the smallest difference is 3. The earthquake motion prediction system using real-time earthquake information according to claim 2, wherein the earthquake motion waveform is the closest to the waveform. The assumed position is the specific location of the ground, the specific location of the structure built on the ground, or the specific location of the stored items installed in the structure,
In addition, the assumed ground motion data is calculated using the ground motion waveform of the ground, the ground motion waveform and the response waveform of the structure, or the seismic motion waveform and the response waveform of the structure, and the response waveform in the storage. The earthquake response prediction system using real-time earthquake information according to any one of claims 1 to 3, further comprising a maximum response value at the assumed position.   The long-period region of the earthquake motion waveform in the assumed ground motion data is calculated by a three-dimensional difference method, a three-dimensional finite element method, a wave number integration method, or a region reduction method, and the short-period region is calculated by an empirical Green function method or The earthquake motion prediction system using real-time earthquake information according to any one of claims 1 to 4, wherein the system is calculated by a statistical Green's function method.   The scenario earthquake database stores earthquake names corresponding to the earthquake conditions, and the output means outputs the earthquake names corresponding to the assumed earthquake motion data. Item 6. A seismic motion prediction system using real-time earthquake information according to any one of items 1 to 5.

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