JP2006250471A - Energy supply system - Google Patents

Abstract

<P>PROBLEM TO BE SOLVED: To provide an energy supply system for suppressing the degradation of energy efficiency even when the life pattern of a user is different from ordinary one. <P>SOLUTION: Usage relating data relating directly or indirectly to at least one of the usage of heat and the usage of electric power by a user are collected by usage relating data collecting means 11, 31, 32, 35, 36. A usage relating data determining part 64 compares actual usage relating data within a period for scheduled operation with reference usage relating data and determines a degree of peculiarity of the actual usage relating data. A control means 5 executes a preliminary operation mode different from a scheduled operation mode during the period for the scheduled operation when there is a greater degree of peculiarity of the actual usage relating data determined by the usage relating data determining part. <P>COPYRIGHT: (C)2006,JPO&NCIPI

Description

  The present invention relates to a combined heat and power device that generates heat and electric power together, and a control means that executes a planned operation mode in which the combined heat and power device is planned based on a predicted power load and a predicted heat load within a planned operation target period. The present invention relates to an energy supply system.

  As an energy supply system for supplying energy of heat and electric power to consumers, a combined heat and power device that generates heat and electric power, and heat that recovers and consumes the heat generated by the combined heat and power device Control that executes a planned operation mode in which the combined heat and power unit is planned to be operated based on the predicted power load and the predicted thermal load within the planned operation target period, the load unit, the power load unit that consumes the power generated by the combined heat and power unit There are systems in which means are provided. In such an energy supply system, hot water is stored in a hot water storage device that stores the heat consumed by the heat load device in the form of hot water by the planned operation of the combined heat and power generation device that generates the hot water. When used, a sufficient amount of hot water is already stored in the hot water storage device. However, it must be considered that consumers do not live in a regular lifestyle pattern every day, that is, the actual power load and heat load do not occur according to the predicted power load and predicted heat load.

  In view of such problems, the planned operation of the combined heat and power unit is performed by predicting how much hot water should be stored in the hot water storage device by what time based on the normal lifestyle patterns of consumers. In addition, when a consumer uses hot water in a special usage pattern different from the normal life pattern, the customer himself / herself specifies a specific period and a target hot water volume, and the target hot water volume is maintained during the specific period. An energy supply system configured to operate a combined heat and power supply device has been proposed (see, for example, Patent Document 1).

JP 2002-5525 A

  In the conventional energy supply system described above, when a consumer uses hot water in a usage pattern different from a normal life pattern, the demand is about what time zone is and how much hot water is used. Although the house itself is judged and commanded, the customer himself / herself accurately predicts how much the specific period and the target hot water storage amount will be in a special usage pattern of hot water different from past life patterns. That comes with difficulty.

  Therefore, even if the customer himself / herself specifies the target hot water storage amount and time, and the planned operation of the combined heat and power unit is performed based on the specified contents, the power output and heat output of the combined heat and power unit are the actual power load and It may be excessive or insufficient with respect to the heat load. In that case, although it is known that the lifestyle pattern of the consumer is different from the normal time, the planned operation based on the predicted power load and the predicted heat load becomes a habit. And there is a high possibility that the energy efficiency of the energy supply system will be reduced due to the disposal of heat when the hot water is left over, the necessity of operation of the auxiliary heating boiler caused by the shortage of hot water, and the like.

  This invention is made | formed in view of said subject, The objective is to provide the energy supply system which can suppress the fall of energy efficiency, even if a consumer's life pattern differs from usual. is there.

The first characteristic configuration of the energy supply system according to the present invention for achieving the above object is based on a combined heat and power supply device that generates heat and power together, a predicted power load and a predicted heat load within a planned operation target period. And an energy supply system provided with a control means for executing a planned operation mode for planned operation of the combined heat and power unit,
Usage-related data collecting means for collecting usage-related data directly or indirectly related to at least one of heat usage and power usage by consumers;
Use of the actual usage status related data collected by the usage status related data collection means for comparing the actual usage status related data within the planned operation target period with reference usage status related data to determine the degree of specificity of the actual usage status related data. A situation-related data determination unit is provided,
When the degree of specificity of the actual usage status related data determined by the usage status related data determination unit is large, the control means performs a preliminary operation different from the planned operation mode during the planned operation target period. The mode is configured to execute.

According to the first characteristic configuration, the usage status related data determination unit is based on the actual usage status related data such as the heat usage status and the power usage status within the planned operation target period collected by the usage status related data collecting means. By determining the degree of specificity of the actual usage status related data as compared with the usage status related data, it is possible to quantitatively identify that the lifestyle pattern of the consumer is different from the normal state. Then, when the control means has a large degree of specificity of the actual usage status related data determined by the usage status related data determination unit, that is, when there is a possibility that the planned operation of the combined heat and power unit may not be effective, the planned operation By executing a preliminary operation mode different from the planned operation mode in the middle of the target period, it is possible to prevent excess or deficiency of heat that may occur when the planned operation becomes a failure.
Therefore, even if a consumer's life pattern differs from usual, the energy supply system which can suppress decline in energy efficiency will be provided.

  In addition to the first feature configuration, the second feature configuration of the energy supply system according to the present invention is an operation mode in which the preliminary operation mode is an operation mode in which the cogeneration device is operated so as to cover a currently requested current power load. In that point.

  According to the second characteristic configuration, the control means operates the cogeneration device in the preliminary operation mode in which the cogeneration device is operated so as to cover the currently requested current power load. The combined heat and power unit is operated. Accordingly, a large excess or deficiency of electric power does not occur, and a reduction in energy efficiency can be suppressed.

  According to a third characteristic configuration of the energy supply system of the present invention, in addition to the first or second characteristic configuration described above, the preliminary operation mode includes a provisional setting for the currently requested current power load and a provisional setting of the cogeneration device. The sum of the primary energy consumption when the power shortage obtained from the difference from the power generation output is covered by power purchase and the primary energy consumption when the temporary power generation output is covered by the cogeneration device is minimized. This is an operation mode in which the cogeneration apparatus is operated with such a power generation output.

  According to the third characteristic configuration, the amount of power purchased and the amount of power supplied from the combined heat and power device are considered in consideration of the energy efficiency when the power load is covered by the purchased power and the energy efficiency when covered by the combined heat and power device. Are distributed to be most energy efficient. Therefore, although the energy efficiency related to the heat supply is unknown (that is, the excess or deficiency of heat may occur), the energy efficiency can be improved most regarding the power supply while preventing a large excess or deficiency of power. it can.

According to a fourth characteristic configuration of the energy supply system of the present invention, in addition to any one of the first to third characteristic configurations, hot water stored in a hot water storage device that stores hot water by heat generated by the combined heat and power supply device is provided. It is equipped with bath bathing means that baths the bath using
The usage status related data determination unit determines that the degree of specificity increases as the bath filling time as the actual usage status related data is farther from the reference bath filling time as the reference usage status related data. It is in.

  According to the fourth feature configuration, the usage status related data determination unit increases the actual usage status related information as the bath hot water time as the actual usage status related data becomes farther from the reference bath hot water time as the reference usage status related data. The control means determines that the specificity of the data, that is, the specificity of the lifestyle pattern of the consumer at that time is large, and the control means operates the combined heat and power supply apparatus in a preliminary operation mode different from the planned operation mode. It becomes like this. As a result, the combined heat and power unit is not operated in a planned operation mode that is highly likely to be ineffective when the degree of specificity of the consumer's life pattern is large. Can supply heat and power.

According to a fifth characteristic configuration of the energy supply system of the present invention, in addition to any of the first to fourth characteristic configurations, hot water stored in a hot water storage device that stores hot water by heat generated by the combined heat and power supply device is provided. It is equipped with bath bathing means that baths the bath using
The usage status related data determination unit determines that the degree of specificity is greater as the number of times of bathing as the actual usage status related data is farther from the number of times of bathing as the reference usage status related data. It is in.

  According to the fifth feature configuration, the usage status related data determination unit determines that the actual usage status related data increases as the number of hot water bathing times as the actual usage status related data increases from the reference hot water bathing frequency as the reference usage status related data. The control means determines that the specificity of the data, that is, the specificity of the lifestyle pattern of the consumer at that time is large, and the control means operates the combined heat and power supply apparatus in a preliminary operation mode different from the planned operation mode. It becomes like this. As a result, the combined heat and power unit is not operated in a planned operation mode that is highly likely to be ineffective when the degree of specificity of the consumer's life pattern is large. Can supply heat and power.

  According to a sixth feature configuration of the energy supply system of the present invention, in addition to any one of the first to fifth feature configurations, the usage status related data determination unit is configured so that a power load as the actual usage status related data is It is in the point of determining that the degree of the specificity is greater as the distance from the reference power load as the reference usage status related data increases.

  According to the sixth feature configuration, the usage status related data determination unit increases the specificity of the actual usage status related data as the power load as the actual usage status related data becomes farther from the reference power load as the reference usage status related data. That is, it is determined that the degree of peculiarity of the lifestyle pattern of the customer at that time is large, and the control means operates the combined heat and power supply apparatus in a preliminary operation mode different from the planned operation mode. As a result, the combined heat and power unit is not operated in a planned operation mode that is highly likely to be ineffective when the degree of specificity of the consumer's life pattern is large. Can supply heat and power.

  According to a seventh characteristic configuration of the energy supply system according to the present invention, in addition to any one of the first to sixth characteristic configurations, the usage state related data determination unit calculates the actual power load data for each set time in time series. The absolute value of the difference is calculated by comparing before and after, the actual integrated value up to the present time of the calculated absolute value is used as the actual usage status related data, and the reference power load data for each set time is time-series Thus, the absolute value of the difference is calculated by comparing before and after, the reference integrated value up to the current time of the calculated absolute value is used as the reference usage status related data, and the more the actual integrated value is away from the reference integrated value, The point is that the degree of specificity is determined to be large.

  According to the seventh characteristic configuration, the usage state related data determination unit calculates the absolute value of the difference by comparing the actual power load data for each set time in chronological order, and calculates the current value of the calculated absolute value. The actual integrated value up to and including the actual usage status-related data, and the reference power load data for each set time are compared in chronological order to calculate the absolute value of the difference, and the calculated absolute value at the current time The standard integrated value up to and including the standard usage status-related data, the more the actual integrated value is far from the standard integrated value, the more specific the actual usage status-related data, that is, the degree of specificity of the consumer's life pattern at that time If it is determined that it is large, the control means operates the combined heat and power supply device in a preliminary operation mode different from the planned operation mode. As a result, the combined heat and power unit is not operated in a planned operation mode that is highly likely to be ineffective when the degree of specificity of the consumer's life pattern is large. Can supply heat and power.

The eighth characteristic configuration of the energy supply system according to the present invention is stored in a hot water storage device that stores hot water using water or heat generated by the combined heat and power supply device in addition to any of the first to seventh characteristic configurations described above. It has a water supply and hot water supply device that supplies hot water obtained using hot water,
In the usage status related data determination unit, the actual supply amount of at least one of the water and the hot water as the actual usage status related data is a reference supply amount of at least one of the water and the hot water as the reference usage status related data. It is in the point which determines with the grade of the said specificity being so large that it is away from.

  According to the eighth characteristic configuration, the usage status related data determination unit determines that the actual supply amount of at least one of water and hot water as the actual usage status related data is at least one reference of water and hot water as the reference usage status related data. The further away from the supply amount, the greater the specificity of the actual usage situation related data, that is, the degree of specificity of the consumer life pattern at that time, and the control means is different from the planned operation mode. The combined heat and power unit is operated in the preliminary operation mode. As a result, the combined heat and power unit is not operated in a planned operation mode that is highly likely to be ineffective when the degree of specificity of the consumer's life pattern is large. Can supply heat and power.

An energy supply system according to the present invention will be described with reference to the drawings.
As shown in FIGS. 1 and 2, the energy supply system recovers the fuel cell 1 as a combined heat and power generation device that generates electric power and heat, and the heat generated by the fuel cell 1 with cooling water. It comprises a hot water storage unit 4 that uses hot water to store hot water in the hot water storage tank 2 and supplies a heating medium to the heating terminal 3, and a control means 5 that controls the operation of the fuel cell 1 and the hot water storage unit 4. .

The fuel cell 1 is configured such that its output can be adjusted, and an inverter 6 for system linkage is provided on the power output side of the fuel cell 1, and the inverter 6 uses the generated power of the fuel cell 1 for the commercial system. 7 is configured to have the same voltage and the same frequency as the received power received from 7.
The commercial system 7 is, for example, a single-phase three-wire system 100/200 V, and is electrically connected to a power load device 9 such as a television, a refrigerator, or a washing machine via a received power supply line 8.
The inverter 6 is electrically connected to the received power supply line 8 via the generated power supply line 10, and the generated power from the fuel cell 1 is supplied to the power load device 9 via the inverter 6 and the generated power supply line 10. It is configured to supply.

The received power supply line 8 is provided with a power load measuring means 11 for measuring the power load of the power load device 9, and this power load measuring means 11 is a so-called current flowing in the received power supply line 8 to the commercial system 7 side. It is also configured to detect whether or not a reverse power flow occurs.
The electric power supplied from the fuel cell 1 to the received power supply line 8 is controlled by the inverter 6 so that a reverse power flow does not occur, and the surplus power of the generated power is recovered by replacing the surplus power with heat. 12 is configured to be supplied.

The electric heater 12 is composed of a plurality of electric heaters, and is provided so as to heat the cooling water of the fuel cell 1 flowing through the cooling water circulation path 13 by the operation of the cooling water circulation pump 15, and is connected to the output side of the inverter 6. The operation switch 14 is switched ON / OFF.
The operation switch 14 is configured to adjust the power consumption of the electric heater 12 according to the amount of surplus power so that the power consumption of the electric heater 12 increases as the amount of surplus power increases. Yes.
Incidentally, the surplus power is calculated as described above, and ON / OFF is switched by the operation switch 14 so that the power consumption of the electric heater 12 becomes equal to or greater than the surplus power. The amount of power obtained by drawing the generated power of the fuel cell 1 from the power load and adding the power consumed by the electric heater 12 is covered by the received power received from the commercial system 7.

The hot water storage unit 4 circulates hot water for heat source through a hot water storage tank 2 for storing hot water in a state where temperature stratification is formed, a hot water circulation pump 17 for circulating hot water in the hot water storage tank 2 through a hot water circulation path 16, and a heat source circulation path 20. The heat source circulation pump 21 to be heated, the heat medium circulation pump 23 to circulate and supply the heat medium to the heating terminal 3 through the heat medium circulation path 22, the hot water storage heat exchanger 24 to heat the hot water flowing through the hot water circulation path 16, and the heat source The heat source heat exchanger 25 for heating the hot water for the heat source flowing through the circulation path 20, the heat exchanger for heat medium heating 26 for heating the heat medium flowing through the heat medium circulation path 22, and the fan 27 are operated. The auxiliary heating heat exchanger 29 for heating the hot water taken out from the hot water storage tank 2 by the combustion of the burner 28 and the heat source hot water flowing through the heat source circulation path 20 is provided.
That is, the “hot water storage device” of the present invention can be realized by the hot water storage unit 4 of the present embodiment.

The hot water circulation path 16 includes a hot water circulation pump 17 that circulates hot water. A hot water circulation pump 17 is branched and connected so that a part thereof is in parallel. A three-way valve 18 is provided at the connection location. A radiator 19 is provided on the road.
Then, by switching the three-way valve 18, the hot water taken out from the lower part of the hot water storage tank 2 is circulated so as to pass through the radiator 19, and the hot water taken out from the lower part of the hot water storage tank 2 is circulated so as to bypass the radiator 19. It is comprised so that it may switch to the state to be made.

The hot water storage heat exchanger 24 is configured to heat the hot water flowing through the hot water circulation path 16 by passing the cooling water of the cooling water circulation path 13 that has recovered the heat output from the fuel cell 1. ing.
In the heat source heat exchanger 25, the hot water for the heat source flowing through the heat source circulation path 20 is heated by passing the cooling water in the cooling water circulation path 13 that has recovered the heat generated by the fuel cell 1. It is configured.
The auxiliary heating boiler J includes a fan 27, a burner 28, and an auxiliary heating heat exchanger 29. When the hot water is not sufficiently stored in the hot water storage tank 2 and the temperature of the hot water supplied to the hot water supply device 33 is equal to or lower than the set temperature, the hot water is heated by the auxiliary heating boiler J.
Further, the heat source circulation path 20 is provided with a heat source intermittent valve 37 for intermittently flowing the heat source hot water.

The cooling water circulation path 13 is branched into a hot water storage heat exchanger 24 side and a heat source heat exchanger 25 side, and the flow rate of cooling water and the heat source heat to be passed through the branch water to the hot water storage heat exchanger 24 side. A diversion valve 30 is provided for adjusting the ratio of the flow rate of the cooling water to be passed to the exchanger 25 side.
The diverter valve 30 allows the entire amount of cooling water in the cooling water circulation path 13 to flow to the hot water storage heat exchanger 24 side, or allows the entire amount of cooling water in the cooling water circulation path 13 to flow to the heat source heat exchanger 25 side. It is comprised so that it can also be made.

In the heat exchanger 26 for heat medium heating, the heat flowing through the heat medium circulation path 22 is caused by flowing hot water for the heat source heated by the heat exchanger 25 for heat source or the heat exchanger 29 for auxiliary heating. It is comprised so that a medium may be heated.
The heating terminal 3 includes a floor heating device, a bathroom heating device, and the like.

  Further, a hot water supply heat load measuring means 31 for measuring the hot water supply heat load when supplying hot water taken out from the hot water storage tank 2 is provided, and a heating heat load measuring means 32 for measuring the heating heat load at the heating terminal 3 is also provided. ing.

  The control means 5 controls the operation of the fuel cell 1 and the operation state of the cooling water circulation pump 15 while operating the cooling water circulation pump 15 during the operation of the fuel cell 1, as well as the hot water circulation pump 17 and the heat source. By controlling the operation state of the circulation pump 21 and the heat medium circulation pump 23, the hot water storage operation for storing hot water in the hot water storage tank 2 and the heat medium supply operation for supplying the heat medium to the heating terminal 3 are performed. ing.

Incidentally, when hot water is supplied, the hot water taken out from the hot water storage tank 2 is supplied with the heat source intermittent valve 37 closed, and the hot water taken out from the hot water storage tank 2 is heated by the auxiliary heating boiler J, Water is mixed with the hot water taken out from the hot water storage tank 2 to supply hot water at the hot water supply set temperature set by the remote control operation unit 34.
Therefore, in the hot water storage tank 2, hot water is stored within the capacity of the hot water storage tank 2 by subtracting the hot water extracted for hot water supply from the hot water added according to the output of the fuel cell 1. become.

Next, operation control of the fuel cell 1 in the energy supply system of the present invention will be described with reference to FIGS.
In the energy supply system of the present invention, the control means 5 is configured to execute a planned operation mode in which the fuel cell 1 is planned to be operated based on the predicted power load and the predicted heat load of the consumer within the planned operation target period. ing.
As shown in FIG. 2, the control means 5 includes a predicted power load calculation unit 51, a predicted thermal load calculation unit 52, a temporary operation pattern reading unit 53, a predicted energy reduction amount calculation unit 54, and a maximum predicted energy reduction amount selection unit 55. A temporary operation time zone setting unit 56, a predicted heat output integration unit 57, and a storage unit 63 are provided.
The storage unit 63 stores past power load data and past heat load data measured by the power load measurement unit 11, the hot water supply heat load measurement unit 31, and the heating heat load measurement unit 32. The predicted power load calculation unit 51 calculates a future predicted power load based on the customer's past power load data stored in the storage unit 63. The predicted heat load calculation unit 52 calculates a future predicted heat load based on the customer's past heat load data stored in the storage unit 63. This heat load includes a hot water supply heat load that uses hot water by the hot water supply device 33 and a heating heat load that consumes the heat of the hot water by the heating terminal 3, but in the description of the present embodiment, for ease of explanation. Next, a case where a hot water supply heat load is generated as a heat load will be described. 3A shows the time-series predicted power load calculated by the predicted power load calculation unit 51, and FIG. 3B shows the time calculated by the predicted heat load calculation unit 52. This is a time-series predicted heat load.

  The temporary operation pattern reading unit 53 is configured to read the temporary operation pattern data of the fuel cell 1 stored in the storage unit 63. Specifically, the temporary operation pattern data stored in the storage unit 63 includes the fuel cell 1 in the planned operation target period in which the planned operation of the fuel cell 1 is performed (in this embodiment, 24 hours from 0:00 to 24:00). Various patterns to be operated once from the start time to the stop time, that is, 300 types of patterns from pattern 1 to pattern 300 are registered, and the temporary operation pattern reading unit 53 uses these temporary operation patterns as the first pattern. The pattern 1 to the 300th pattern 300 are read one by one.

  The predicted energy reduction amount calculation unit 54 is configured to calculate the predicted energy reduction amount when the fuel cell 1 is temporarily operated on the main operation basis so as to cover the predicted power load according to the read temporary operation pattern. . The predicted energy reduction amount (P) calculated by the predicted energy reduction amount calculation unit 54 purchases power from the commercial system 7 and operates the auxiliary heating boiler J so as to cover the predicted power load and the predicted hot water supply heat load in the planned operation target period. The fuel cell 1 is operated in accordance with a predetermined pattern so as to cover the predicted power load and the predicted hot water supply heat load from the predicted energy consumption (E1) at the time, and the auxiliary heating boiler J is installed for the predicted hot water heat load that is insufficient. The predicted power load that is in operation and is insufficient is a value obtained by subtracting the predicted energy consumption (E2) when purchasing power from the commercial grid 7. That is, when the predicted energy reduction amount (p) is expressed by a mathematical formula, the following mathematical formula (1) is obtained.

  P = E1-E2 (1)

  In this formula (1), the predicted energy amount (E1) when the fuel cell 1 is not operated can be expressed by the following formula (2).

E1 = [(predicted hot water supply heat load in the planned operation target period) / (hot water supply efficiency of the auxiliary heating boiler J)] + [(predicted power purchase amount to cover the predicted power load in the planned operation target period) / (power generation efficiency of the commercial system 7) ]] (2)

  The predicted energy amount (E2) when operating the fuel cell 1 can be expressed by the following mathematical formula (3).

E2 = (energy use amount when the fuel cell 1 is operated in the main operation according to the temporary operation pattern) + [(remaining estimated power purchase amount that needs to be purchased in shortage even if the fuel cell 1 is operated) / (Power generation efficiency of the commercial system 7)] + [(Remaining predicted hot water supply heat load that needs to be replenished even if the fuel cell 1 is operated) / (Hot water supply efficiency of the auxiliary heating boiler J)] (3 )

  Further, when calculating the predicted energy amount (E2), it is desirable to consider the startup loss of the fuel cell 1, that is, the energy loss at startup. This start-up loss does not need to be considered during the continuous operation of the fuel cell 1, but occurs when the fuel cell 1 is started from a stopped state and is predicted to start at the start of the planned operation target period. The energy amount (E2) can be expressed by the following mathematical formula (4).

E2 = (energy use amount when the fuel cell 1 is operated in the main operation according to the temporary operation pattern) + [(remaining estimated power purchase amount that needs to be purchased in shortage even if the fuel cell 1 is operated) / (Power generation efficiency of commercial system 7)] + [(Remaining predicted hot water supply heat load that needs to be replenished even if the fuel cell 1 is operated) / (Hot water supply efficiency of the auxiliary heating boiler J)] + Startup loss・ (4)

  The maximum predicted energy reduction amount selection unit 55 is configured to select the maximum value of the predicted energy reduction amounts in each temporary operation pattern calculated by the prediction energy reduction amount calculation unit 54. Then, the temporary operation time zone setting unit 56 sets the operation time zone of the temporary operation pattern corresponding to the selected maximum predicted energy reduction amount as the temporary operation time zone, and this temporary operation time zone is stored in the storage unit 63. So that

  The predicted heat output integration unit 57 integrates the predicted heat output generated when operating on the main operation base so as to cover the predicted power load over the temporary operation time period. This predicted heat output is calculated considering the heat loss when hot water is stored in the hot water storage tank 2 (this heat loss is calculated based on the predicted hot water supply heat load and taking into account the time for hot water storage in the hot water tank 2, The so-called predicted effective hot water storage amount considering the heat dissipation loss is preferable, and this heat dissipation loss increases as the time for storing hot water in the hot water storage tank 2 increases and decreases as the time for storing hot water decreases.

  The control means 5 further includes a current power load calculation unit 58, a power generation output setting unit 59, a current heat output integration unit 60, and a heat output comparison unit 61. The current power load calculation unit 58 calculates the current actual power load of the power load device 9, and this current power load is calculated using the measurement data of the power load measuring means 11. The power generation output setting unit 59 sets the power generation output of the fuel cell 1 when the main operation is performed so as to cover the current power load based on the current power load, and the current heat output integration unit 60 sets the fuel cell 1 to Based on the current power load, the current heat output generated when operating based on the main operation is integrated, and this heat output also takes heat loss into account (this heat loss is also based on the predicted power load, It is preferably calculated in consideration of the time for which hot water is stored in the tank 2, and is a so-called current effective hot water storage amount in consideration of such heat dissipation loss.

Next, operation control (planned operation mode and preliminary operation mode) of the fuel cell 1 performed in the energy supply system will be described with reference to the flowcharts of FIGS.
In this energy supply system, when performing control to operate the fuel cell 1 in the planned operation mode, first, the planned operation target period for setting the temporary operation pattern is set to 24 hours (one day), and a predetermined specific time of the start, for example, The predicted energy reduction amount is calculated every midnight. In step S <b> 1 shown in FIG. 5, the temporary operation time zone setting unit 56 provides the temporary operation time zone of the fuel cell 1 that maximizes the predicted energy reduction amount at the specific time (in the present embodiment, midnight). Execute the setting control. FIG. 6 shows a flow of setting control of the temporary operation time zone of the fuel cell 1 performed by the temporary operation time zone setting unit 56.

  In step S1a of FIG. 6, the predicted power load calculation unit 51 calculates a time-series predicted power load in the planned operation target period based on past power load data stored in the storage unit 63. Similarly, in step S <b> 1 a, the predicted thermal load calculation unit 52 calculates a time-series predicted thermal load in the planned operation target period based on the past thermal load data stored in the storage unit 63. FIG. 3A shows the calculated predicted power load, and FIG. 3B shows the calculated predicted heat load. In the embodiment, the time period for calculating the predicted power load and the predicted heat load is 1 hour, and the predicted power load and the predicted heat load are calculated in units of one hour. An appropriate time unit such as a 25-hour unit can also be set.

  Next, in step S <b> 1 b, the temporary operation pattern reading unit 53 reads the temporary operation pattern data of the fuel cell 1 stored in the storage unit 63. As shown in FIG. 4, the temporary operation pattern is a pattern in which the fuel cell 1 operates once in a planned operation target period (24 hours in the present embodiment). For example, pattern 1 (start-up time is 0:00 am, stop time is 1:00 am) that activates only the period from midnight to 1:00 am (time zone “1”), or the time from midnight to 2:00 am Pattern 2 for operating only the time zone (time zone “1” and “2”) (start time is midnight, stop time is 2:00 am), time zone from midnight to 3 am (time zone “1”) , “2” and “3”) are operated only in a pattern 3... And a pattern 24 is operated in a time zone from midnight to 12:00 pm (time zones “1” to “24”). In addition, as a pattern for starting operation from a time from 1 am to 2 am (time zone “2”), a pattern 25 in which only this time zone “2” is operated, a time zone from 1 am to 3 am ( Pattern 26 for operating time zones “2” and “3”) There are 23 types of patterns 47 for operating the time zone from 1 am to 12:00 (time zones “2” to “24”). Furthermore, there are 22 types of patterns 48 to 69 as the patterns to start operation from the time zone from 2 am to 3 am (time zone “3”). The time zone from 3 am to 4 am (time zone) There are 21 types of patterns 70 to 90 as the patterns to start operation from “4”). Thus, the operation starts from the last 23:00 pm to 24:00 pm of the day (time zone “24”). There is one type of pattern 300 to be used. Thus, there are 300 types of temporary operation patterns from pattern 1 to pattern 300.

  Therefore, when the temporary operation pattern reading unit 53 reads the first pattern 1 in step S1b, the predicted energy reduction amount calculation unit 54 temporarily sets the fuel cell 1 in accordance with the read temporary operation pattern pattern 1 in step S1c. Calculate the predicted energy reduction when driving. That is, as shown in FIG. 3C, the predicted energy reduction amount calculation unit 54 calculates the predicted energy reduction amount when the fuel cell 1 is temporarily operated in the main operation so as to cover the predicted power load. In this embodiment, the rated power output of the fuel cell 1 is set to 1000 W and the minimum power output is set to 300 W. Therefore, when the predicted power load is 1000 W or more, the predicted power output in the temporary operation pattern is 1000 W, and the predicted power output is 1000 W. When the power load is 300 W or less, the predicted power generation output in the temporary operation pattern is set to 300 W.

  Specifically, in the case of the first pattern 1 of the temporary operation pattern, as shown in FIG. 7, the fuel cell 1 is operated at 500 W in the time zone “1”, and this power generation output covers the predicted power load. It becomes like this. By this operation, the fuel cell 1 generates a predicted heat output of 2303 kJ, and this predicted heat output is stored as hot water in the hot water storage tank 2 of the hot water storage unit 4, and the initial hot water storage heat storage stored in the hot water storage tank 2 is performed. The predicted heat output generated in the amount (for example, 8374 kJ) and the time zone “1” is consumed in the predicted hot water supply heat load (for example, 27717 kJ) generated in the time zone “9”, and is insufficient. , 18259 kJ) will be covered by the operation of the auxiliary heating boiler J. In this embodiment, the heat dissipation loss during the period stored in the hot water storage tank 2 is taken into account, and this heat dissipation loss is shown in the column of the hot water storage heat dissipation amount, and the predicted tank heat storage amount is reduced by the heat dissipation loss with time. It becomes like this. In such a case, as for the predicted energy amount (E2), the predicted power load in the time zone “1” is covered by the operation of the fuel cell 1, and the predicted power load from the time zone “2” to the time zone “24” is commercial. Covered by power purchase from grid 7. Further, for a part of the predicted hot water supply thermal load in the time zone “9” (for example, only the predicted hot water supply thermal load is generated in the time zone “9” within the planned operation target period), for example, 9458 kJ, the hot water storage tank 2 About the remaining portion of this predicted hot water supply load, for example, 18259 kJ, for example, the amount of heat stored in advance at a predetermined time and the heat output generated by the operation of the fuel cell 1 in the time zone “1”. It will be covered by the operation of the auxiliary heating boiler J. By applying these to the above formula (3), the predicted energy amount (E2) when the fuel cell 1 is operated is calculated, and the predicted energy amount in the temporary operation pattern 1 is calculated using this predicted energy amount (E2). When the reduction amount is calculated, it becomes 2093 kJ as shown in FIG.

  When the predicted energy reduction amount calculation unit 54 calculates the predicted energy reduction amount in pattern 1 of the temporary operation pattern as described above, the process proceeds to step S1d to read out all patterns of the temporary operation pattern. Steps S1b and S1c are repeated in the same manner until the reading of all patterns and the calculation of the predicted energy reduction amount in the temporary operation pattern are completed.

For example, when the predicted energy reduction amount is calculated for the first (second, third,...) Pattern 1 (pattern 2, 3,...) Of the temporary operation pattern, the second The second (third, fourth,...) Pattern 2 (patterns 3, 4...) Is read out, and the predicted energy reduction in the read pattern 2 (patterns 3, 4,...) Is performed. The quantity calculation is performed in the same manner as described above.
In the case of the second pattern 2 of the temporary operation pattern, as shown in FIG. 8, the predicted energy amount (E2) is covered by the operation of the fuel cell 1 with the predicted power loads in the time zones “1” and “2”. The predicted power load from the time zone “3” to the time zone “24” is covered by power purchase from the commercial system 12. Further, a part of the predicted hot water supply heat load in the time zone “9”, for example, 12343 kJ, is covered by the hot water stored in the hot water storage tank 2, and the remaining part of this predicted hot water supply load, for example, 15374 kJ is operated by the auxiliary heating boiler J. The predicted energy reduction amount at this time is 2512 kJ as shown in FIG.
Further, in the case of the 24th pattern 24 of the temporary operation pattern, as shown in FIG. 9, the predicted energy reduction amount at this time is 1256 kJ, and in the case of the 25th pattern 25 of the temporary operation pattern, FIG. The predicted energy reduction amount at this time is 2303 kJ, and in the case of the last pattern 300 of the temporary operation pattern, it is as shown in FIG. 11, and the predicted energy reduction amount at this time is 837 kJ.

  When the predicted energy reduction amount is calculated for all the temporary operation patterns as described above, the maximum predicted energy reduction amount selection unit 55 in step S1e includes the predicted energy reduction amount calculated for each temporary operation pattern. Select the largest value. Next, in step S <b> 1 f, the temporary operation time zone setting unit 56 sets an operation time zone corresponding to the temporary operation pattern that is the predicted maximum energy reduction amount selected as the temporary operation time zone, and the temporary operation time zone. Is stored in the storage unit 63.

  After the temporary operation time zone is set as described above, the process proceeds to step S2 in FIG. 5, and the predicted heat output integration unit 57 covers the fuel cell 1 with the predicted power load according to the selection pattern of the temporary operation pattern. The predicted heat output generated when the main operation is performed, in other words, the predicted hot water storage amount stored as hot water in the hot water storage tank 2 is integrated, and the integrated value of the predicted heat output is stored in the storage unit 63.

  Thereafter, when it is determined in step S3 that the set temporary operation time zone has reached the start time, the process proceeds from step S3 to step S4, and the operation control unit 62 generates an operation signal based on the operation signal. Then, the fuel cell 1 is operated. As a result, the power generated by the fuel cell 1 is consumed by the power load device 9 (when surplus power is generated, it is stored as hot water by the electric heater 12), and the heat recovered from the fuel cell 1 is stored as hot water in the hot water storage unit 4. Stored. This operation of the fuel cell 1 is performed by using the current power load actually consumed by the power load device 9 (as this current power load, an average power load up to a predetermined time, for example, 5 minutes before the present time can be used). This is done by operating the main electric power to cover. That is, in step S5, the current power load calculation unit 58 calculates the current power load, and in step S6, the power generation output setting unit 59 makes the power generation output equal to the current power load (or somewhat smaller than the current power load). The power generation output of the fuel cell 1 is set as follows. For example, when the current power load is 500 W, the power generation output of the fuel cell 1 is set to 500 W (or 460 W), and in this way, the fuel cell 1 is main-operated to cover the current power load. In step S7, the current heat output integration unit 60 integrates the current heat output actually generated by the operation of the fuel cell 1 in the planned operation mode from the start of the operation.

  As described above, by operating the fuel cell 1 in the planned operation mode as described above, the operation can be stopped once per 24 hours (one day), which is the planned operation target period. Thus, it is possible to avoid frequent stoppages.

However, because there are visitors who are originally a family of four, there are seven homes on the day, and because Monday is a holiday, Monday is spent in the same lifestyle pattern as a normal holiday. In some cases, there are special days when the customer's heat load pattern is different from usual, such as when they are out and absent.
Therefore, in the energy supply system of the present embodiment, usage status related data collection means for collecting usage status related data directly or indirectly related to at least one of heat usage status and power usage status by a consumer, The usage status related data determination unit 64 that compares the actual usage status related data in the planned operation target period measured by the data measurement unit with the reference usage status related data to determine the degree of specificity of the actual usage status related data. Is provided. As will be described later, the usage status related data collecting means includes the power load measuring means 11, the hot water supply heat load measuring means 31, the heating heat load measuring means 32, and the bath hot water switch of the remote control operation unit 34 shown in FIG. 35 and the reservation switch 36 can be used.

Then, as shown in step S8 to step S10 of FIG. 5, the degree of specificity of the actual usage status related data determined by the usage status related data determination unit 64 is large while operating the fuel cell 1 in the planned operation mode. Sometimes, a preliminary operation mode different from the planned operation mode described above is executed during the planned operation target period.
Details of the preliminary operation mode will be described later.

  Specifically, during the operation of the fuel cell 1 in the planned operation mode, in step S8, the use state related data determination unit 64 performs actual use within the planned operation target period collected by the use state related data collection unit. The situation related data is compared with the reference usage situation related data to determine the degree of specificity of the actual usage situation related data. Next, in step S9, when the degree of specificity of the actual usage status related data determined by the usage status related data determination unit 64 is large, the operation control unit 62 proceeds to step S10 and what is the planned operation mode? The power generation output setting process for executing the preliminary operation mode for operating the fuel cell 1 in another unplanned state is executed. In step S15, it is determined whether or not a predetermined time (start time of the planned operation target period) for recalculating the predicted energy reduction amount by all the temporary operation patterns, for example, 0:00, is reached. Until the value reaches the step S10, the fuel cell 1 is operated in the preliminary operation mode. If it is determined in step S15 that the predetermined time has been reached, the process returns to the beginning of the control flow.

  On the other hand, when the operation control unit 62 determines in step S9 that the degree of specificity of the actual usage-related data is not large, the process proceeds to step S11. That is, the fuel cell 1 continues to be operated in the planned operation mode.

  In step S <b> 11, the heat output comparing unit 61 compares the predicted integrated heat output by the predicted heat output integrating unit 57 with the current integrated heat output by the current heat output integrating unit 60. When the current integrated heat output is smaller than the predicted integrated heat output, the process proceeds to step S12, where it is determined whether or not the end time of the set temporary operation time zone has been reached, and the process returns to step S5 until this end time is reached. Thus, the operation of the fuel cell 1 is continued. If it is determined in step S12 that this end time has been reached, the process proceeds to step S13, the operation of the fuel cell 1 is stopped, and the process proceeds to step S14.

  On the other hand, in step S11, when the current integrated heat output becomes equal to or higher than the predicted integrated heat output due to the operation of the fuel cell 1, the process proceeds to step S13, and the energy saving operation of the fuel cell 1 for obtaining a predetermined heat output is performed. As a result, the operation of the fuel cell 1 is stopped. In step S14, it is determined whether or not the predetermined time (start time of the planned operation target period) has been reached. If it is determined that the predetermined time has been reached, the process returns to the beginning of the control flow shown in FIG. To do.

Details of steps S8 to S10 in FIG. 5 relating to the preliminary operation mode will be described below.
When the power load measuring means 11 for measuring the usage status related data directly related to the power usage status by the consumer is used as the usage status related data collecting means described above, it relates to the time series power load within the planned operation target period. Information can be collected, and the amount of time variation of the power load as described later, that is, the actual power load data for each set time in the power load device 9 is compared before and after in time series to calculate the absolute value of the difference Thus, it is possible to collect information on the actual integrated value of the calculated absolute value up to the present time.

  Moreover, when the hot water supply thermal load measuring means 31 that measures the usage status related data directly related to the heat usage status by the consumer is used as the usage status related data collecting means, when the customer performs bathing in the bathtub, It is possible to collect information on the required hot water supply heat load. Similarly, when the heating heat load measuring means 32 for measuring the use state related data directly related to the heat use state by the consumer is used as the use state related data collecting means, the heating heat consumed by the consumer at the heating terminal 3 is used. Information on load amount can be collected.

  Still further, when the hot water supply heat load measuring means 31 is used as the usage status related data collection means, the customer uses the hot water supply device 33 as usage status related data indirectly related to the heat usage status by the consumer. Information on the amount of water consumed can be collected. For example, since water may be used without using hot water (that is, without consuming heat) in the hot water supply device 33 in summer, the water measured by the hot water supply thermal load measuring means 31 and The actual supply of hot water is regarded as usage-related data indirectly related to heat usage by consumers. That is, the hot water supply device 33 corresponds to the “water supply and hot water supply device” of the present invention.

  Furthermore, when using the bath hot water switch 35 of the remote control operation unit 34 operated by the consumer or the reservation switch 36 for reserving the bath hot water time as the usage status related data collecting means, the bath hot water switch 35 is used. The on-operation time can be collected as bath hot water time information, and the bath hot water reserved time reserved by the reservation switch 36 can be collected as bath hot water time information. In addition, it is possible to collect information on the number of times of bath hot water performed based on the ON operation of the bath hot water switch 35 and the reservation operation performed by the reservation switch 36.

  As described above, the actual usage status-related data that can be collected by the usage status-related data collection means includes the power load, the amount of time fluctuation of the power load, the bath hot water filling time, the number of hot water bath fillings, the actual supply amount of water and hot water. and so on.

The usage status related data determination unit 64 provided in the control means 5 is used by the usage status related data collection means during the operational control in the planned operation mode described with reference to FIGS. The situation-related data is compared with the reference usage situation-related data to determine the degree of specificity of the actual usage situation-related data.
For example, the usage status related data determination unit 64 determines the degree of specificity of the actual usage status related data as the power load of the power load device 9 as the actual usage status related data becomes farther from the reference power load as the reference usage status related data. Is determined to be large. The reference power load is information related to a power load that can serve as a reference, such as a past average power load of the customer himself or another customer within the planned operation target period. Therefore, the usage status related data determination unit 64 determines that the total power load for the first 15 hours of the day (between 0:00 and 15:00 in the present embodiment) is greater than the total power load for one day in the past average power load. If it becomes larger, it is determined that the degree of specificity of the power load on that day is large at that time.

In addition, the usage status related data determination unit 64 increases the actual variation of the power load of the power load device 9 as the actual usage status related data as the distance from the standard variation of the power load as the reference usage status related data increases. It is determined that the degree of specificity of usage-related data is large.
For example, the average value of the past hourly power load of the consumer, the absolute value of the difference before and after the hourly power load, and the integrated value of the absolute value up to that time are as follows: It becomes like Table 1.

  As shown in Table 1, if the consumer uses power in a normal life pattern, the hourly power load repeatedly fluctuates, so the integrated value of the absolute value of the difference increases uniformly. However, when the customer is absent, the hourly power load does not fluctuate, so that the absolute value of the difference is zero as in the case of 11:00 to 17:00 in Table 1 above. The integrated value of the absolute value of the difference is also zero. Therefore, if the state of increase in the integrated value of the absolute value of the difference is different, it can be determined that the consumer is not using power in a normal life pattern. For example, regarding the power load measured by the power load measuring unit as the usage state related data collection unit, when the integrated value of the absolute value of the difference at 12 o'clock is 0.5 or less, for example, the usage state related data The determination unit 64 can recognize a state in which the degree of specificity with little fluctuation in the power load is large.

  Furthermore, the usage status related data determination unit 64 increases the specificity of the actual usage status related data as the bath hot water filling time as the actual usage status related data is further away from the reference bath hot water filling time as the reference usage status related data. It is determined that the degree is large. Therefore, the usage status related data determination unit 64 determines whether the bath hot water filling time of the day (the time when the bath hot water filling switch 35 is turned on or the bath hot water filling reservation time by the reservation switch 36) is the average bath water in the past. For example, when it is more than 4 hours away from the tension time, it is determined that the degree of specificity of the bath hot water time of the day is large at that time.

  Furthermore, the usage status related data determination unit 64 determines the specificity of the actual usage status related data as the number of bath hot water fillings as the actual usage status related data becomes farther from the reference hot bath filling frequency as the reference usage status related data. It is determined that the degree is large. Therefore, when the number of times of bathing on the day becomes larger than the average number of times of bathing on the day, for example, the usage status-related data determination unit 64 determines the degree of specificity of the number of times of bathing on the day at that time. Is determined to be large.

  Furthermore, the usage status related data determination unit 64 is such that the actual supply amount of water and hot water from the hot water supply device 33 as actual usage status related data is farther from the reference supply amount as reference usage status related data. It is determined that the degree of specificity of the actual usage situation related data is large. Therefore, the usage status-related data determination unit 64 is, for example, in the normal life pattern, from 3 o'clock to 13 o'clock when water is used, from the past 3 o'clock to 13 o'clock which is the reference amount If it is smaller than the average amount of water or warm water used, it is determined that the degree of specificity of the amount of water or warm water used on that day is large.

  As described above, when the usage state-related data determination unit 64 determines that the degree of specificity of the daily life pattern of the consumer is large, the operation control unit 62 is different from the planned operation mode being executed at that time. The preliminary operation mode for operating the fuel cell 1 in the unplanned state is executed.

  As the preliminary operation mode, an operation mode in which the fuel cell 1 is operated so as to cover the current power load currently required in the power load device 9, that is, a so-called main operation mode can be employed. When the fuel cell 1 is operated in the main operation mode, at least the power generation output of the fuel cell 1 is substantially equal to the actual power load, so that a large power surplus does not occur. As a result, even if the consumer's life pattern is different from normal, it is possible to suppress a decrease in energy efficiency with respect to power supply.

As another preliminary operation mode, the insufficient power obtained from the difference between the current power load currently requested in the power load device 9 and the temporarily generated output of the fuel cell 1 is covered by power purchase from the commercial system 7. Adopts an operation mode in which the fuel cell 1 is operated with an optimal power generation output that minimizes the sum of the primary energy consumption when the fuel cell 1 covers the primary energy consumption when the temporary power generation output is covered by the fuel cell 1. can do.
For example, the power load of the power load device 9 is AkW, the power generation output of the fuel cell 1 is BkW, and the power generation output when the power output is BkW is e (B). Assuming that the power generation efficiency of the power plant that supplies power is ep, the optimum generated power is the generated power: B that minimizes F (B) in the following equation.

F (B) = [Max (A−B, 0) / ep + B / e (B)]

  In other words, the first term of the above formula represents the primary energy consumption when power shortage: (A-B) is covered by power purchase, and the second term is to output the generated power: B from the fuel cell 1. It represents the primary energy consumption when operating. Since the power generation efficiency e (B) of the fuel cell 1 changes according to the power generation output, the value of F (B) also changes when the power generation output of the fuel cell 1 changes. Therefore, if the fuel cell 1 is operated at the generated power B that minimizes the value of F (B), the energy efficiency relating to the heat supply is unknown (that is, although excess or shortage of heat may occur) The energy efficiency can be most improved with respect to the power supply while preventing a large excess or deficiency of power from occurring. Then, the optimum generated power: B that minimizes the F (B) is periodically derived at the set timing, and the fuel cell 1 may be operated with the generated power: B.

<Another embodiment>
<1>
In the above embodiment, several criteria (reference usage status related data) for determining whether or not the degree of specificity of the actual usage status related data is large are exemplified, but the reference usage status related data can be changed as appropriate. Moreover, you may change according to every customer, every day of the week, every month, every season.

<2>
In the above embodiment, the case where a fuel cell is used as the combined heat and power supply device has been described. However, for example, a gas engine power generation device or the like may be used as the combined heat and power supply device.

<3>
In the above embodiment, the case where the planned operation target period is 24 hours from 0:00 to 24:00 has been described. For example, when the planned operation target period is 24 hours from 2:00 am to 2:00 am on the next day Alternatively, it may be modified when the planned operation target period is 48 hours from 0:00.

<4>
In the above embodiment, two examples are shown as the preliminary operation mode different from the planned operation, but other operation modes may be executed as the preliminary operation mode. For example, another operation mode such as a preliminary operation mode in which a constant output operation at 25% or the like of the rated output of the fuel cell 1 is continuously or intermittently performed may be executed.

  The energy supply system of the present invention can suppress a decrease in energy efficiency by operating a combined heat and power supply device in a preliminary operation mode different from the original planned operation mode when the consumer's life pattern is not regular. Applicable to cogeneration system.

Schematic configuration diagram of energy supply system Control block diagram of energy supply system Diagram for explaining predicted power load and predicted hot water supply heat load Diagram showing various patterns of temporary operation pattern Flow chart showing control of energy supply system Flow chart showing setting control of temporary operation time zone The figure for demonstrating the calculation of the prediction energy reduction amount in the 1st pattern 1 of a temporary driving pattern. The figure for demonstrating the calculation of the prediction energy reduction amount in the 2nd pattern 2 of a temporary driving pattern. The figure for demonstrating the calculation of the prediction energy reduction amount in the 24th pattern 24 of a temporary driving pattern. The figure for demonstrating the calculation of the prediction energy reduction amount in the 25th pattern 25 of a temporary driving pattern. The figure for demonstrating the calculation of the prediction energy reduction amount in the 300th pattern 300 of a temporary driving pattern.

Explanation of symbols

1 Fuel cell (cogeneration device)
5 Control means 11 Power load measurement means (Usage status related data collection means)
31 Hot water supply thermal load measurement means (use status related data collection means)
32 Heating heat load measuring means (use status related data collecting means)
35 Bath hot water switch (use status related data collection means)
36 Reservation switch (usage-related data collection means)
64 Usage status related data judgment unit

Claims (8)

A cogeneration apparatus that generates heat and electric power together, and a control unit that executes a planned operation mode in which the cogeneration apparatus is planned to be operated based on a predicted power load and a predicted heat load within a planned operation target period are provided. Energy supply system,
Usage-related data collecting means for collecting usage-related data directly or indirectly related to at least one of heat usage and power usage by consumers;
Use of the actual usage status related data collected by the usage status related data collection means for comparing the actual usage status related data within the planned operation target period with reference usage status related data to determine the degree of specificity of the actual usage status related data. A situation-related data determination unit is provided,
When the degree of specificity of the actual usage status related data determined by the usage status related data determination unit is large, the control means performs a preliminary operation different from the planned operation mode during the planned operation target period. An energy supply system configured to execute a mode.   2. The energy supply system according to claim 1, wherein the preliminary operation mode is an operation mode in which the cogeneration apparatus is operated so as to cover a currently requested current power load.   In the preliminary operation mode, the primary energy consumption when the power shortage obtained from the difference between the currently requested current power load and the provisional power generation output of the cogeneration device set temporarily is covered by power purchase, and the 2. The energy supply system according to claim 1, wherein the system is an operation mode in which the combined heat and power device is operated with a power generation output that minimizes a sum of primary energy consumption when the temporary power generation output is covered by the combined heat and power device. A bath hot water filling means for bathing the bathtub with hot water stored in a hot water storage device for storing hot water with heat generated by the combined heat and power supply device;
The usage status related data determination unit determines that the degree of specificity increases as the bath filling time as the actual usage status related data is farther from the reference bath filling time as the reference usage status related data. Item 4. The energy supply system according to any one of Items 1 to 3. A bath hot water filling means for bathing the bathtub with hot water stored in a hot water storage device for storing hot water with heat generated by the combined heat and power supply device;
The usage status related data determination unit determines that the degree of specificity is greater as the number of bath hot water fillings as the actual usage status related data is farther from the reference bath hot water filling times as the reference usage status related data. Item 5. The energy supply system according to any one of Items 1 to 4.   The said usage condition relevant data determination part determines with the degree of the said specificity being so large that the electric power load as said actual usage condition relevant data leaves | separates from the reference | standard electric power load as said reference | standard usage condition relevant data. The energy supply system according to any one of the above.   The usage status related data determination unit compares the actual power load data for each set time in chronological order and calculates the absolute value of the difference, and calculates the actual integrated value of the calculated absolute value up to the present time. Use state related data, and calculate the absolute value of the difference by comparing the reference power load data for each set time in chronological order before and after, and calculate the reference integrated value up to the present time of the calculated absolute value The energy supply system according to any one of claims 1 to 6, wherein it is determined that the degree of specificity is greater as the actual integrated value is farther from the reference integrated value as reference usage status related data. Water supply or hot water supply device for supplying hot water obtained using hot water stored in water or hot water storage device that stores hot water by heat generated in the combined heat and power supply device,
In the usage status related data determination unit, the actual supply amount of at least one of the water and the hot water as the actual usage status related data is a reference supply amount of at least one of the water and the hot water as the reference usage status related data. The energy supply system according to any one of claims 1 to 7, wherein it is determined that the degree of the specificity is greater as the distance from the device increases.

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