CN115099524A - Garden carbon emission prediction method and device - Google Patents
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Abstract
The invention provides a campus carbon emission prediction method considering characteristics of various types of parks; the method is suitable for but not limited to carbon emission prediction of various parks such as a characteristic agricultural park, an industrial manufacturing park, a business office park, a tourism leisure park and the like, has systematicness and universality, and has guiding significance on low-carbon planning paths of the various parks.
Description
Technical Field
The invention relates to the technical field of carbon emission, in particular to a method and a device for predicting carbon emission of a park.
Background
In the prior art, a park is used as a basic unit for the development of the industry in China, and has the characteristics of high industrial aggregation, intensive infrastructure, concentrated innovation factors, rich energy utilization forms and the like. Meanwhile, the park is also a main source of urban carbon emission, and according to the relevant research data of the national energy agency and the environmental college of the Qinghua university, the carbon emission of the China industrial park accounts for 31 percent of the whole country in 2015 and shows a continuously rising trend.
The existing planning of the comprehensive energy system of the park still takes safety constraints and economic cost as main considerations generally, and the planning process comprises load prediction, intrinsic endowment analysis, equipment modeling, system optimization and investment analysis. Under the national "dual carbon" strategic goal, carbon constraints will gradually change from soft constraints to hard constraints in the campus energy system program. How to clean the carbon emission sources and carbon sinks of various types of parks to form a park carbon emission calculation method is an important basis for developing a park comprehensive energy system low-carbon planning. Particularly, a carbon emission prediction method similar to load prediction is provided for a newly-built park, so that the future carbon emission amount and structure of the newly-built park can be pre-judged in a planning stage, and a guidance effect on the implementation path of a subsequently-built park low-carbon energy system is provided.
At present, relevant standards and guidelines are published at home and abroad for urban level, industrial level and enterprise level carbon emission calculation, but relevant standards or guidelines are not published in a park level carbon emission calculation method, not to mention a carbon emission prediction method. Some preliminary studies are carried out by domestic scholars aiming at the garden-level carbon emission calculation method. The literature, "research on methods for accounting greenhouse gases in industrial parks" classifies the carbon emission sources in industrial parks into three categories, namely energy consumption, industrial processes and product use, and waste treatment and disposal. The literature, "low-carbon urban area operation stage carbon emission computational analysis" is based on an I PCC model, and the park carbon emission is computed and analyzed from four dimensions of building, traffic, energy resources and landscape greening. The literature 'exploration of the overall planning path of the low-carbon park, taking the planning practice of the Wuxi Taike park as an example' sets up a park carbon emission evaluation model from urban buildings such as industry, transportation, commercial housing and the like, and plates such as wastes, resource utilization, ecological space and the like. The document "simulation and optimization research of carbon emission system in industrial park" establishes an accounting range of carbon emission in industrial park by using a carbon emission inventory analysis method, and establishes a dynamic model of the carbon emission system in the industrial park by using a system dynamics method. The research and demonstration of the industrial park low-carbon development mode based on carbon footprint evaluation comprehensively considers the enterprise accounting boundary and the administrative boundary of the industrial park in the greenhouse gas protocol enterprise accounting and reporting criterion, and calculates the carbon footprint of the industrial park from industrial departments, residential areas, transportation departments (carbon sources) and park greenbelts (carbon sinks). According to the literature, "estimation and carbon compensation research of clean carbon emission and carbon compensation of rural tourist sites under carbon neutralization visual angle-case demonstration of grand village and combined great polder in southern Anhui", a regional carbon emission calculation system is constructed from dimensions such as tourism carbon-based energy consumption, agricultural production energy consumption, land utilization mode change, solid waste incineration treatment and the like for rural tourist areas.
The research has limitations, the research is carbon emission calculation research which is carried out on the basis of assuming a certain type of park (such as an industrial park), and the research does not consider the difference of carbon emission sources and carbon sinks caused by the difference of function positioning, energy utilization structures and the like in different types of parks, so that the systematicness and the universality are lacked; moreover, the consideration of the dimensionality of the research of the proposed method for calculating the carbon emission of the campus is not comprehensive, for example, the carbon emission in the field of energy activities does not consider the energy carbon emission for street lamps, and the carbon emission cannot be ignored in the carbon emission amount of the campus level.
Disclosure of Invention
Therefore, the technical problem to be solved by the invention is to overcome the problem that the park carbon emission calculation in the prior art is lack of systematicness and universality.
In order to solve the technical problem, the invention provides a method for predicting the carbon emission of a park, which comprises the following steps:
calculating the carbon emission of energy activity of the garden according to the carbon emission of agricultural energy generated by using energy consumed by agricultural production machinery in the garden, the carbon emission of industrial energy generated by burning fossil energy in the industrial production process of industrial enterprises staying in the garden, the carbon emission of building energy generated by building energy in the garden, the carbon emission of transportation energy generated by traffic energy in the garden, the carbon emission of energy generated by leisure facilities for tourism and leisure basic facilities in the garden and the carbon emission of street lamps generated by street lamps in the garden;
calculating the carbon emission of agricultural production according to the agricultural production activity amount and the carbon emission factor of agricultural production activity units in the garden;
calculating the carbon emission of industrial production according to the annual output of industrial products and the carbon emission factor of the industrial products in the park;
calculating the carbon emission of the waste treatment according to the annual treatment amount of the waste in the park and the carbon emission factor of the waste;
calculating green plant carbon sink according to green plant planting quantity in the garden, carbon row absorption capacity of green plant unit planting quantity and annual photosynthesis days of green plants;
and calculating according to the carbon emission of the energy activity of the park, the carbon emission of the agricultural production, the carbon emission of the industrial production, the carbon emission of the waste treatment and the carbon sink of the green plants to obtain the annual carbon emission of the park in the operation stage.
Preferably, when the historical data of industrial energy in the park is complete, the industrial energy carbon emission is calculated according to the annual energy consumption of industrial manufacturing industry in the park and the carbon emission factor of the corresponding energy, and the calculation formula is as follows:
wherein,
represents the carbon emission generated by industrial production energy consumption every year in the park,
represents the annual consumption of the jth energy class of the ith industrial manufacturing industry,
representing a carbon emission factor of a jth energy source for industrial manufacturing;
when historical data of industrial energy in a park is missing, calculating the industrial energy carbon emission according to the annual average output value of an enterprise, an industrial energy structure and unit output value energy consumption, wherein the calculation formula is as follows:
wherein PV i ind Indicates the annual average production value of the i-th industrial manufacturing enterprises,
represents the unit output value energy consumption of the ith industrial manufacturing industry,
the consumption proportion of the jth energy product class in the ith industrial manufacturing industry is shown.
Preferably, when the historical data of the building energy in the park is complete, the building energy carbon emission is calculated according to the annual consumption of the building energy in the park and the carbon emission factor of the corresponding energy, and the calculation formula is as follows:
wherein,
representing the carbon emission generated by the building energy used in the garden every year,
represents the annual consumption of the jth energy class of the ith building,
a carbon emission factor representing the jth energy source of building energy;
when the historical data of the building energy in the park are missing, the carbon emission of the building energy is calculated according to the building area and the building energy structures of different types, and the calculation formula is as follows:
and correcting the carbon emission calculation of the hotel buildings by adopting the number of beds, the renting rate of guest rooms and the annual average operating days:
wherein,
a type i building area is represented,
the energy consumption intensity of the ith type of construction year is expressed,
represents the j energy consumption proportion of the ith building, n 1 The number of types of buildings of hotels and guest houses is shown,
the number of beds of the hotel type building is shown,
the renting rate of the i-th hotel building rooms is shown,
represents the annual average business days of the i-th hotel building, Cf i hotel Express the building sheet of the ith type hotelBit carbon rank factor, n 2 Indicating other building type numbers.
Preferably, when the historical data of the park traffic energy is complete, the carbon emission of the traffic energy is calculated according to the annual consumption of the energy used by the vehicles in the park and the carbon emission factor of the corresponding energy, and the calculation formula is as follows:
wherein,
representing the carbon emission of the garden due to the traffic energy each year,
indicating the annual consumption of the ith vehicle using the jth energy class,
represents the carbon emission factor of the jth energy source;
when the historical data of park traffic energy is missing, the logistics type traffic carbon row is calculated according to the load and the annual driving mileage, the commuting type traffic carbon row is calculated according to the daily commuting number and the annual average driving mileage, the traffic energy carbon row is obtained, and the calculation formula is as follows:
wherein o is 1 Number of types of transportation means, W i tran Indicating the loading of the ith logistics transportation type vehicle,
represents the annual mileage of the i-th logistics transportation vehicle, Cf i tran Represents the energy carbon emission factor, o, of the i-th logistics transportation vehicle 2 Representing daily commute trafficThe number of types of the general-purpose tools,
the number of people using the ith daily commuting traffic is shown,
representing the annual mileage, Cf, of class i daily commuter vehicles i com Representing the energy carbon emission factor of the ith class daily commute type vehicle.
Preferably, when the energy history data for street lamps in the park are complete, the carbon emission for street lamps is calculated according to the annual power consumption of street lamps and the power carbon emission factor of street lamps, and the calculation formula is as follows:
when the energy historical data for the street lamp in the park is lost, the energy carbon row for the street lamp is calculated according to the road area, the number of street lamps in unit area, the average power of the street lamps and the annual working time, and the calculation formula is as follows:
wherein,
representing the carbon row produced by street lamps in the garden every year,
indicating the annual power consumption of class i street lamps, Cf i lig Represents the power carbon emission factor, S, of the i-th street lamp r Denotes the area of the park road, N lig Representing the number of street lamps per unit area, P i lig Represents the average power of the i-th street lamp,
indicating operation of class i street lampsTime.
Preferably, the energy carbon emission for the leisure facility is calculated according to the annual average number of people participating in the tourism activity project in the garden and the average carbon emission factor, and the calculation formula is as follows:
wherein,
representing the carbon emission, NP, that can be produced by tourism leisure infrastructures in the park each year i tra Indicating the number of annual participants in the ith type of travel event, Cf i tra And the average carbon rank factor of the ith type of travel activity project is shown.
Preferably, the formula for calculating the carbon emission of the industrial production according to the annual production of the industrial product and the carbon emission factor of the industrial product in the park is as follows:
wherein, CE industry Representing the carbon emission generated by industrial production non-energy activities in the park every year,
indicating the annual production of class i industrial products, Cf i ind Representing the carbon emission factor of the i-th industrial product.
Preferably, the calculation formula for calculating the carbon emission of the waste treatment according to the annual waste treatment amount and the carbon emission factor of the waste in the park is as follows:
wherein,
representing the carbon emissions produced by the incineration of waste every year in the park,
indicating the annual treatment amount of type i waste, Cf i wat Representing the carbon rejection factor of the i-th type waste.
Preferably, the formula for calculating the carbon sink of the green plants according to the planting amount of the green plants in the garden, the carbon absorption capacity of the green plants per planting amount and the annual photosynthesis days of the green plants is as follows:
wherein CS plant Representing the carbon rows absorbed by photosynthesis of green plants every year in the garden,
denotes the planting amount of i-th green plants, Cf i plant Showing the carbon row absorbing capacity of the planting amount of the i-th green plants,
represents the number of days of annual photosynthesis of the i-th class of green plants.
The invention also provides a device for predicting the carbon emission of the garden, which comprises:
a garden energy activity carbon emission prediction module, which is used for calculating the garden energy activity carbon emission according to the agricultural energy carbon rows generated by the use of the agricultural production machinery in the garden, the industrial energy carbon rows generated by the combustion of fossil energy in the industrial production process of industrial enterprises staying in the garden, the building energy carbon rows generated by the combustion of the fossil energy in the industrial production process of the industrial enterprises in the garden, the traffic energy carbon rows generated by the traffic energy in the garden, the leisure carbon rows generated by the travel leisure basic facilities in the garden and the street lamp energy carbon rows generated by the street lamps in the garden;
the agricultural production carbon emission prediction module is used for calculating the agricultural production carbon emission according to the agricultural production activity amount and the unit carbon emission factor of the agricultural production activity in the garden;
the industrial production carbon emission prediction module is used for calculating the industrial production carbon emission according to the annual yield of the industrial products and the carbon emission factor of the industrial products in the park;
the waste treatment carbon emission prediction module is used for calculating the waste treatment carbon emission according to the annual waste treatment amount and the waste carbon emission factor in the park;
the green plant carbon sink prediction module is used for calculating green plant carbon sink according to green plant planting quantity in the park, carbon row absorption capacity of green plant unit planting quantity and annual photosynthesis days of green plants;
and the garden carbon emission prediction model construction module is used for calculating and obtaining the annual carbon emission in the garden operation stage according to the garden energy activity carbon emission, the agricultural production carbon emission, the industrial production carbon emission, the waste treatment carbon emission and the green plant carbon sink.
Compared with the prior art, the technical scheme of the invention has the following advantages:
the invention provides a campus carbon emission prediction method considering characteristics of various types of parks; the method is suitable for but not limited to carbon emission prediction of various parks such as a characteristic agricultural park, an industrial manufacturing park, a business office park, a tourism leisure park and the like, has systematicness and universality, and has guiding significance on low-carbon planning paths of the various parks.
Drawings
In order that the present disclosure may be more readily and clearly understood, reference is now made to the following detailed description of the present disclosure taken in conjunction with the accompanying drawings, in which:
FIG. 1 is a flow chart of an implementation of the campus carbon emissions prediction method of the present invention;
FIG. 2 is a flowchart illustrating steps provided by one embodiment of the present invention;
FIG. 3 is a pie chart of the carbon excretion ratios of various types in the annual average carbon excretion amount in a future operation stage of an agricultural park;
FIG. 4 is a pie chart of the carbon emission ratios of various types in the annual average carbon emission amount at a future operational stage of an automotive manufacturing park;
FIG. 5 is a pie chart of the carbon emission ratios of various types in the annual average carbon emission amount in a future operation phase of a business office;
FIG. 6 is a pie chart of the carbon emission ratios of various types in the annual average carbon emission amount in a future operation stage of a certain tourist park;
fig. 7 is a block diagram illustrating a configuration of a campus carbon emission prediction apparatus according to an embodiment of the present invention.
Detailed Description
The core of the invention is to provide a method and a device for predicting the carbon emission of the park, which are suitable for but not limited to the carbon emission prediction of various parks such as a special agricultural park, an industrial manufacturing park, a business office park, a tourism leisure park and the like, and have systematicness and universality.
In order that those skilled in the art will better understand the disclosure, reference will now be made in detail to the embodiments of the disclosure as illustrated in the accompanying drawings. It should be apparent that the described embodiments are only some embodiments of the present invention, and not all embodiments. All other embodiments, which can be derived by a person skilled in the art from the embodiments given herein without making any creative effort, shall fall within the protection scope of the present invention.
Referring to fig. 1 and 2, fig. 1 is a flow chart illustrating an implementation of the campus carbon emissions prediction according to the present invention, and fig. 2 is a flow chart illustrating steps according to an embodiment of the present invention; the specific operation steps are as follows:
s101: calculating the carbon emission of energy activity of the garden according to carbon emission of agricultural energy generated by using and consuming energy by agricultural production machinery in the garden, carbon emission of industrial energy generated by burning fossil energy in the industrial production process of industrial enterprises staying in the garden, carbon emission of building energy generated by building energy of the garden, carbon emission of transportation energy generated by traffic energy of the garden, carbon emission of energy generated by leisure facilities for tourism and leisure basic facilities in the garden and carbon emission of energy generated by street lamps for street lamps in the garden;
the agricultural energy carbon emission mainly refers to carbon emission generated by using and consuming energy by agricultural production machinery in a park, specifically comprises energy carbon emission consumed by farm irrigation, energy carbon emission consumed by agricultural machinery and the like, and has the following calculation formula:
wherein,
represents the carbon emission generated by the energy consumption of agricultural production machinery in the garden every year,
representing the annual activity of the i-th agricultural production activity, such as the total area of irrigation for a field irrigation activity, the total power consumed by the use of a farming machine, etc., Cf i agri Expressing carbon emission coefficients corresponding to the ith agricultural production activity, such as a carbon emission coefficient of a unit area of farmland irrigation and a carbon emission coefficient of a unit power of agricultural machinery;
the industrial energy carbon emission mainly refers to carbon emission generated by burning fossil energy in the industrial production process of industrial enterprises which live in a park, the types of the enterprises which live in the park include but are not limited to the enterprises with various industrial manufacturing properties such as textile industry, paper making industry, chemical fiber manufacturing industry, medicine manufacturing industry, non-metallic mineral product industry, ferrous metal smelting and calendering processing industry, automobile manufacturing industry, instrument manufacturing industry and the like, and the calculation formula is as follows:
wherein,
representing the carbon emission generated by industrial production energy consumption in the garden every year,
indicating the annual consumption of the jth energy class in the ith industrial manufacturing industry,
representing a carbon emission factor of a jth energy source for industrial manufacturing;
the building energy carbon emission mainly refers to carbon emission generated by building energy in a garden, the building types in the garden are rich, and the calculation formula is as follows aiming at residential buildings (including villages and towns), agricultural scientific research experimental buildings, office buildings, market buildings, hotel buildings (including star-level hotels, theme residences and farmhouse happy restaurants) and the like:
wherein,
representing the carbon emission generated by the building energy used in the garden every year,
represents the annual consumption of the jth energy class of the ith building,
a carbon emission factor representing the jth energy source of building energy;
the energy carbon emission for traffic mainly refers to the carbon emission that the garden traffic can produce, specifically includes the content of three aspects, firstly, the traffic energy carbon emission that transgarden logistics transportation (like agricultural product, industrial manufacturing product etc.) produced, secondly the traffic energy carbon emission that personnel daily commute in the garden or car of plugging into in the garden produced, thirdly the visitor's traffic carbon emission that the garden outside produced (mainly the traffic of plugging into of going to the garden in the urban area such as bus, taxi, do not consider aviation, railway etc.), specific computational formula is as follows:
wherein,
representing the carbon emission of the garden due to the traffic energy each year,
representing the annual consumption of the ith vehicle using the jth energy class,
represents the carbon emission factor of the jth energy source;
the energy carbon emission for leisure facilities mainly refers to carbon emission which can be generated by tourism and leisure basic facilities in a park, specifically comprises performance items, air experience items, water experience items, exploration items and the like, and has the following calculation formula:
wherein,
representing the carbon emission, NP, that can be produced by tourism leisure infrastructures in the park each year i tra Indicating the number of annual participants in the ith type of travel event, Cf i tra Representing the personal average carbon row factor of the ith type of travel activity project;
the carbon row for street lamps mainly refers to the carbon row which can be generated by street lamps in a garden, and the calculation formula is as follows:
wherein,
representing the carbon row produced by street lamps in the garden every year,
represents the annual power consumption of the i-th street lamp, Cf i lig And the power carbon emission factor of the i-th street lamp is shown.
S102: calculating the carbon emission of agricultural production according to the agricultural production activity amount and the carbon emission factor of agricultural production activity units in the garden;
the agricultural production carbon row mainly refers to carbon rows related to energy consumption in agricultural activities, and comprises carbon rows generated by rice field planting activities, carbon rows generated by using fertilizers, pesticides and the like for farmland soil, and carbon rows generated by animal intestinal fermentation and animal excrement management, and the calculation formula is as follows:
wherein, CE agri Represents the carbon emissions produced by non-energy activities of agricultural production in the park each year;
the method is characterized by comprising the following steps of (1) representing the activity amount of the ith agricultural production, wherein the activity amount mainly comprises the planting area of a rice field, the fertilizer used by farmland soil, the weight of pesticide activity, the animal feeding quantity and the like; cf i ag Representing the carbon rank factor of the i-th agricultural activity unit.
CH is generated by the rice field planting activities 4 N 2 O, N produced by using chemical fertilizer, pesticide and the like in farmland soil 2 O, CH produced by animal intestinal fermentation 4 And that produced by animal fecal management is CH 4 And N 2 O, are all non-CO 2 The greenhouse gas, in this example, not calculated, is 0;
s103: calculating the carbon emission of industrial production according to the annual output of industrial products and the carbon emission factor of the industrial products in the park;
the carbon emission generated by decomposing carbonate in cement clinker production, the carbon emission generated by decomposing carbonate by heating limestone in lime production, the carbon emission from high-temperature decomposition of iron-making flux and steel-making carbon reduction process in steel production process, and the carbon emission from calcium carbide production process link by lime and other raw materials are mainly considered; the calculation formula is as follows:
wherein, CE industry Representing the carbon emissions produced by non-energy activities of industrial production every year in the park,
the I-th industrial product annual output is represented, and the I-th industrial product annual output mainly comprises cement clinker, lime, steel, calcium carbide and Cf i ind Representing carbon emission factor of i-th industrial product
S104: calculating the carbon emission of the waste treatment according to the annual treatment amount of the waste in the park and the carbon emission factor of the waste;
the waste disposal method comprises refuse landfill and refuse incineration, wherein the refuse landfill mainly generates CH 4 Out of the calculation range, the method mainly considers the CO generated by the waste incineration 2 . Considering the policy of prohibiting burning of straws in China, the carbon emission generated by the garden waste mainly refers to the carbon emission generated by burning household garbage and treating dangerous waste, the carbon emission generated by burning crop straws is not considered any more, and the calculation formula is as follows:
wherein,
representing the carbon emission generated by the incineration of the waste every year in the park,
denotes the annual treatment amount of type i waste, Cf i wat Representing the carbon rejection factor of the i-th type waste.
S105: calculating green plant carbon sink according to green plant planting quantity in the garden, carbon row absorption capacity of green plant unit planting quantity and annual photosynthesis days of green plants;
the carbon fixation of green plants is realized through photosynthesis, and the carbon fixation capacity is mainly influenced by factors such as greening area of a garden, types of green vegetation and the like. In the method, carbon sinks generated by four kinds of common green plants in the park are mainly considered, namely deciduous arbor carbon sink, evergreen arbor carbon sink, shrub lawn carbon sink and flower bamboo plant carbon sink, and the calculation formula is as follows:
wherein CS plant Representing the carbon rows absorbed by photosynthesis of green plants every year in the garden,
the planting amount of the i-th green plants is shown, wherein the planting amount unit of deciduous trees, evergreen trees and flower bamboo plants is plant, the planting amount unit of shrub lawn is square meter, Cf i plant Showing the carbon row absorbing capacity of the planting amount of the i-th green plants,
represents the number of days of annual photosynthesis of the i-th green plants.
S106: and calculating according to the carbon emission of the energy activity of the park, the carbon emission of the agricultural production, the carbon emission of the industrial production, the carbon emission of the waste treatment and the carbon sink of the green plants to obtain the annual carbon emission of the park in the operation stage.
And acquiring basic data of the relevant type park by an investigation and funding method, taking the basic data as input parameters in S101-S105, and solving the model by MATLAB or EXCEL to obtain a park carbon emission prediction result.
The formula for calculating the carbon emission of the garden is as follows:
where CE represents the annual carbon emission prediction at the operating stage of the park.
The invention provides a campus carbon emission prediction method considering characteristics of various types of parks, which comprehensively considers the differences of carbon emission sources and carbon sinks of different types of parks caused by differences of function positioning, energy consumption structures and the like, provides a universal carbon emission calculation framework and a specific calculation model which are suitable for the characteristics of various types of parks, and is suitable for but not limited to carbon emission prediction of various types of parks such as characteristic agricultural parks, industrial manufacturing parks, business office parks, tourist leisure parks and the like; the newly added street lamp can be provided as a factor influencing the carbon emission in the energy activity field of the park, the carbon emission calculation dimensionality of the park is increased, and the systematicness and comprehensiveness of the calculation method are improved.
Based on the above embodiments, the present embodiment further describes in detail the energy carbon row for industrial use, the energy carbon row for building use, the energy carbon row for transportation use, and the energy carbon row for street lamp use:
the existing researches are directed at the carbon emission calculation of the existing park, the data sources are relatively rich, the newly-built park has not much history data, the planning stage only has information such as floor area, land type, type of an enterprise to be parked, and the like, and the problem of data availability needs to be fully considered for the carbon emission prediction method of the newly-built park, so that the calculation formula is transformed and optimized on the premise of fully considering the data availability, and the carbon emission prediction of the newly-built park in the operation stage and the carbon emission estimation of the stock park in the operation stage under the condition of data statistics deficiency are realized;
when historical data of industrial energy in a park is missing, calculating the industrial energy carbon emission according to the annual average output value of an enterprise, an industrial energy structure and unit output value energy consumption, wherein the calculation formula is as follows:
wherein PV i ind Indicates the annual average production value of the i-th industrial manufacturing enterprises,
represents the unit output value energy consumption of the i-th industrial manufacturing industry,
the consumption proportion of the jth energy product class in the ith industrial manufacturing industry is represented;
when the historical data of the building energy in the park are missing, the carbon emission of the building energy is calculated according to the building area and the building energy structures of different types, and the calculation formula is as follows:
and correcting the carbon emission calculation of the hotel buildings by adopting the number of beds, the renting rate of guest rooms and the annual average operating days:
wherein,
a type i building area is represented,
the energy consumption intensity of the ith type of building year is expressed,
represents the j energy consumption proportion of the ith building, n 1 Represents the types of hotel buildings (including star-level hotels, theme residents and farmhouse happy restaurants),
the number of beds of the hotel type building is shown,
showing the renting rate of the rooms of the ith hotel type buildings,
the annual average business days of the hotel class i buildings are expressed,Cf i hotel representing the carbon emission factor, n, of the i-th hotel building unit 2 The type number of other buildings (including residential houses, agricultural scientific research experiment buildings, office buildings, shopping malls and the like) is represented;
when the historical data of park traffic energy is missing, the logistics type traffic carbon row is calculated according to the load and the annual driving mileage, the commuting type traffic carbon row is calculated according to the daily commuting number and the annual average driving mileage, the traffic energy carbon row is obtained, and the calculation formula is as follows:
wherein o is 1 The number of types of transportation vehicles (such as diesel trucks, gasoline trucks and the like) is represented as W i tran Indicating the loading capacity of the ith logistics transportation type vehicle,
represents the annual mileage of the i-th logistics transportation vehicle, Cf i tran Represents the energy carbon emission factor, o, of the i-th logistics transportation vehicle 2 Representing the type number of daily commuting transportation means (such as buses, private cars, taxis, motorcycles and enterprise buses),
the number of people using the ith daily commuting traffic is shown,
representing the annual mileage, Cf, of class i daily commuting vehicles i com Representing the energy carbon emission factor of the ith class daily commuting vehicle;
when the energy historical data for the street lamp in the park is missing, the energy carbon row for the street lamp is calculated according to the road area, the number of the street lamps in unit area, the average power of the street lamps and the annual working time, and the calculation formula is as follows:
wherein S is r Denotes the area of the park road, N lig Representing the number of street lamps per unit area, P i lig Represents the average power of the i-th street lamp,
and the working time of the i-th street lamp is shown.
According to the method, the characteristics of park function positioning, industrial types and energy consumption, the characteristics of newly-built parks such as data statistics availability and data loss of stock parks are fully considered, and under the urban and enterprise-level carbon emission calculation standards and guide frames in international countries, five dimensions of energy activity, agricultural production, industrial production, waste treatment and green-planted carbon sink are comprehensively considered, so that the park carbon emission prediction method considering the characteristics of various parks is provided; when the method is used for predicting and modeling the carbon emission of the energy activities of the park, six aspects of agricultural energy, industrial energy, building energy, traffic energy, tourist facilities energy and street lamp energy are fully covered, and on the premise of fully considering the availability of data, a calculation formula is transformed and optimized, so that the carbon emission prediction of the newly-built park in the operation stage and the carbon emission estimation of the stock park in the operation stage under the condition of data statistics loss can be realized; the method framework, the calculation model establishment, the influence factor comprehensive consideration in the carbon emission calculation model in the park and the formula conversion under the condition of considering the availability of data are innovations in the field and are worthy of protection.
Based on the above embodiment, this embodiment carries out case analysis to certain agricultural garden, certain car manufacture garden, certain business office garden and certain tourism garden as follows specifically:
case analysis of an agricultural park
(1) Basic information
The agricultural park plans a total floor area of 200 hectares, wherein the cultivated land area is 166.7 hectares, the building area is about 30 ten thousand square meters, the residential building accounts for about 65 percent, and the scientific research office building accounts for 35 percent; the industrial planning in the garden mainly comprises vegetable planting, introduction and breeding, and does not relate to large-scale industrial production; the long-term population of the garden is about 20000 people, the traffic mainly comprises freight traffic and daily commute, wherein the garden comprises 50 diesel trucks with the load of 30 tons, 20 gasoline trucks with the load of 10 tons and the annual average driving mileage of about 10 kilometers, and the single trip mileage of a private car is 30 km/day on average.
(2) Results display
The model was solved computationally by MATLAB, with the results shown in table 1:
TABLE 1 prediction results of annual carbon emission at operation stage of park
| Energy movable carbon row | Carbon row for waste treatment | Carbon sink for green plants | |
| Agricultural carbon emission (ton CO) 2 ) | 47 | - | - |
| Building carbon emission (ton CO) 2 ) | 14558 | - | - |
| Carbon emission (ton CO) 2 ) | 28492 | - | - |
| Carbon emission (ton CO) of street lamp 2 ) | 87 | - | - |
| Carbon emission (ton CO) from waste treatment 2 ) | - | 1577 | - |
| Carbon sink (ton CO) of deciduous arbor 2 ) | - | - | 286 |
| Carbon sink for evergreen arbor (ton CO) 2 ) | - | - | 121 |
| Carbon sink (ton CO) for bush lawn 2 ) | - | - | 1183 |
| Flower bamboo plant carbon sink (ton CO) 2 ) | - | - | 222 |
| Total amount (ton of CO) 2 ) | 43184 | 1577 | 1812 |
In summary, as shown in FIG. 3, the annual average carbon emission for the future operational phase of the park is approximately 42949 tons of CO with normal energy use 2 Wherein the carbon emission ratio of the building is about 33%, the carbon emission ratio of the traffic is 64%, and the carbon emission ratio of the waste treatment is 3%.
Case analysis of a certain automobile manufacturing park
(1) Basic information
The total floor area of the planned automobile manufacturing park is 13.4 ten thousand square meters, the building area is about 11.2 ten thousand square meters, and the planned automobile manufacturing park covers production, research, development and commercial buildings, the park is mainly used for large and medium-sized enterprises in the automobile industry, 28 large and medium-sized automobile manufacturing enterprises with the annual average output value of about 3.5 million yuan are parked in the future, and the total number of people in the park is about 4.8 million. The transportation of the garden is mainly logistics distribution and daily commuting, wherein the garden has 15 diesel trucks, 18 tons of load, 10 gasoline trucks and 10 tons of load, the annual average driving mileage is about 10 kilometers, and the single trip mileage of a private car is 30 km/day on average.
(2) Results display
The model was solved computationally by MATLAB, with the results shown in table 2:
TABLE 2 prediction of annual carbon emission in the operational phase of the park
| Energy movable carbon row | Carbon row for waste treatment | Carbon sink for green plants | |
| Industrial carbon emission (ton CO) 2 ) | 137743 | - | - |
| Building carbon emission (ton CO) 2 ) | 14558 | - | - |
| Carbon emission (ton CO) 2 ) | 50587 | - | - |
| Carbon emission (ton CO) of street lamp 2 ) | 68 | - | - |
| Carbon emission (ton CO) from waste treatment 2 ) | - | 5676 | - |
| Carbon sink (ton CO) of deciduous arbor 2 ) | - | - | 170 |
| Evergreen arbor carbon sink (ton CO) 2 ) | - | - | 72 |
| Carbon sink (ton CO) for shrub lawn 2 ) | - | - | 704 |
| Flower bamboo plant carbon sink (ton CO) 2 ) | - | - | 105 |
| Total amount (ton of CO) 2 ) | 202956 | 5676 | 1051 |
In summary, as shown in FIG. 4, the annual average carbon emissions for the future operating phases of the park are about 207581 tons CO with normal energy usage 2 Wherein the carbon emission ratio of industrial energy is about 66%, the carbon emission ratio of traffic is 24%, and the carbon emission ratio of building is about 7%.
Case analysis of business park
(1) Basic information
The total planned land area of the business office park is about 42280 square meters, the total building area is 45224 square meters, the green area rate of the park is about 35 percent, the proportion of road squares is about 37 percent, and the total number of people in long-term office is about 500; the industrial planning of the garden is scientific and technological research and development, office and light laboratory, does not relate to large-scale agriculture and industrial production, and the energy consumption form is mainly electricity and natural gas; the park traffic is mainly daily commuting of workers, and does not relate to the use of industrial related vehicles, the private car accounts for about 45%, the bus trip is 10%, the regular bus trip is 30%, and the single trip mileage is 30 km/day on average.
(2) Results display
The model was solved computationally by MATLAB, with the results shown in table 3:
TABLE 3 prediction of annual carbon emission in the operational phase of the park
| Energy movable carbon row | Carbon row for waste treatment | Green plant carbon sink | |
| Building carbon emission (ton CO) 2 ) | 6272 | - | - |
| Carbon emission (ton CO) 2 ) | 742 | - | - |
| Carbon exhaust (ton CO) of street lamp 2 ) | 6.6 | - | - |
| Carbon emission (ton CO) from waste treatment 2 ) | - | 59.2 | - |
| Carbon sink (ton CO) of deciduous arbor 2 ) | - | - | 94.3 |
| Evergreen arbor carbon sink (ton CO) 2 ) | - | - | 39.7 |
| Carbon sink (ton CO) for shrub lawn 2 ) | - | - | 389 |
| Flower bamboo plant carbon sink (ton CO) 2 ) | - | - | 52 |
| Total amount (ton of CO) 2 ) | 7020.6 | 59.2 | 575 |
In summary, as shown in FIG. 5, the annual average carbon emission for the future operational phase of the park is about 6504.8 tons of CO under normal energy use conditions 2 Wherein the carbon content of the building is about 89%, and the carbon content of the traffic is 10%.
Case analysis of a tourist park
(1) Basic information
The total area of the tourist park is about 58 ten thousand square meters, wherein the area of a water area is 20 ten thousand square meters, the area of a land area is 38 ten thousand square meters, the area of a green land is 31 ten thousand square meters, the area of a building is 7 ten thousand square meters, and about 170 workers are mainly theme lodging residents and administrative services buildings. The park belongs to ecological conservation scenic spots, and tourism activities mainly comprise aquatic experience items, performance items and natural experience items. The annual average number of tourists in the park is about 800 ten thousand, wherein 60 percent of the number of the tourists are the tourists in other places, the tourists in other places can take special touring lines or taxies, and the whole journey is about 9.3 kilometers; the local tourists are in private cars, public buses and the like for traveling, and the average trip mileage of each trip is 15 km.
(2) Results display
The model was solved computationally by MATLAB, with the results shown in table 4:
TABLE 4 prediction of annual carbon emission in the operational phase of the park
| Energy movable carbon row | Carbon row for waste treatment | Carbon sink for green plants | |
| Building carbon emission (ton CO) 2 ) | 25425 | - | - |
| Carbon emission (ton CO) 2 ) | 186769 | - | - |
| Travelling movable carbon emission (ton CO) 2 ) | 45660 | - | |
| Carbon exhaust (ton CO) of street lamp 2 ) | 812 | - | - |
| Carbon emission (ton CO) from waste treatment 2 ) | - | 2160 | - |
| Deciduous arbor carbon sink (ton CO) 2 ) | - | - | 3951 |
| Evergreen arbor carbon sink (ton CO) 2 ) | - | - | 1666 |
| Carbon sink (ton CO) for bush lawn 2 ) | - | - | 8146 |
| Flower bamboo plant carbon sink (ton CO) 2 ) | - | - | 1629 |
| Total amount (ton of CO) 2 ) | 258666 | 2160 | 15392 |
In summary, as shown in FIG. 6, the annual average carbon emission for the future operational phase of the park is about 245434 tons of CO under normal energy use conditions 2 Wherein the carbon emission ratio for tourists and traffic is about 72%, the carbon emission ratio for tourism activities is 17%, the carbon emission ratio for building energy is 10%, and the carbon emission ratio for waste treatment is 1%.
Referring to fig. 7, fig. 7 is a block diagram illustrating a structure of a carbon emission prediction apparatus for a campus according to an embodiment of the present invention; the specific device may include:
a garden energy activity carbon emission prediction module 100 for calculating garden energy activity carbon emission according to an agricultural energy carbon emission generated by using and consuming energy by agricultural production machinery in a garden, an industrial energy carbon emission generated by burning fossil energy in an industrial production process by an industrial enterprise living in the garden, a building energy carbon emission generated by building energy in the garden, a traffic energy carbon emission generated by traffic energy in the garden, an energy carbon emission generated by leisure facilities for tourism and leisure infrastructure in the garden, and a street lamp energy carbon emission generated by street lamp in the garden;
the agricultural production carbon emission prediction module 200 is used for calculating the agricultural production carbon emission according to the agricultural production activity amount and the unit carbon emission factor of the agricultural production activity in the garden;
the industrial carbon emission prediction module 300 is used for calculating the industrial carbon emission according to the annual yield of the industrial products and the carbon emission factor of the industrial products in the park;
a waste treatment carbon emission prediction module 400 for calculating waste treatment carbon emission from annual waste treatment volume and waste carbon emission factor in the park;
a green plant carbon sink prediction module 500, configured to calculate a green plant carbon sink according to a green plant planting amount in the park, a green plant unit planting amount carbon row absorption capacity, and a green plant annual photosynthesis day number;
and a park carbon emission prediction model construction module 600, configured to calculate annual carbon emission in the park operation stage according to the park energy activity carbon emission, the agricultural production carbon emission, the industrial production carbon emission, the waste treatment carbon emission and the green plant carbon sink.
The campus carbon emission prediction apparatus of this embodiment is configured to implement the above-mentioned campus carbon emission prediction method, and thus a specific implementation manner of the campus carbon emission prediction apparatus may be seen in the above-mentioned parts of the campus carbon emission prediction method, for example, the campus energy activity carbon emission prediction module 100, the agricultural production carbon emission prediction module 200, the industrial production carbon emission prediction module 300, the waste disposal carbon emission prediction module 400, the green vegetation carbon sink prediction module 500, and the campus carbon emission prediction model construction module 600 are respectively configured to implement steps S101, S102, S103, S104, S105, and S106 in the above-mentioned campus carbon emission prediction method, so that the specific implementation manner thereof may refer to descriptions of corresponding parts of the embodiments, and will not be repeated herein.
It should be understood that the above examples are only for clarity of illustration and are not intended to limit the embodiments. Various other modifications and alterations will occur to those skilled in the art upon reading the foregoing description. And are neither required nor exhaustive of all embodiments. And obvious variations or modifications therefrom are within the scope of the invention.
Claims (10)
1. A method for predicting carbon emissions from a campus, comprising:
calculating the carbon emission of energy activity of the garden according to the carbon emission of agricultural energy generated by using energy consumed by agricultural production machinery in the garden, the carbon emission of industrial energy generated by burning fossil energy in the industrial production process of industrial enterprises staying in the garden, the carbon emission of building energy generated by building energy in the garden, the carbon emission of transportation energy generated by traffic energy in the garden, the carbon emission of energy generated by leisure facilities for tourism and leisure basic facilities in the garden and the carbon emission of street lamps generated by street lamps in the garden;
calculating the carbon emission of agricultural production according to the agricultural production activity amount and the carbon emission factor of agricultural production activity units in the garden;
calculating the carbon emission of industrial production according to the annual output of industrial products and the carbon emission factor of the industrial products in the park;
calculating the carbon emission of the waste treatment according to the annual treatment amount of the waste in the park and the carbon emission factor of the waste;
calculating green plant carbon sink according to green plant planting quantity in the garden, carbon row absorption capacity of green plant unit planting quantity and annual photosynthesis days of green plants;
and calculating according to the carbon emission of the energy activity of the park, the carbon emission of the agricultural production, the carbon emission of the industrial production, the carbon emission of the waste treatment and the carbon sink of the green plants to obtain the annual carbon emission of the park in the operation stage.
2. The method for predicting the carbon emission of the campus of claim 1 wherein, when the historical data of the industrial energy of the campus is complete, the carbon emission of the industrial energy is calculated according to the annual consumption of the energy of the industrial manufacturing industry in the campus and the carbon emission factor of the corresponding energy, and the calculation formula is as follows:
wherein,
representing the carbon emission generated by industrial production energy consumption in the garden every year,
denotes the ithThe annual consumption of the jth energy class in the class industrial manufacturing industry,
a carbon rejection factor representing a jth energy source for industrial manufacturing;
when historical data of industrial energy in a park are missing, calculating the industrial energy carbon emission according to the annual average output value of an enterprise, an industrial energy consumption structure and unit output value energy consumption, wherein the calculation formula is as follows:
wherein PV i ind Indicates the annual average production value of the i-th industrial manufacturing enterprises,
represents the unit output value energy consumption of the ith industrial manufacturing industry,
the consumption proportion of the jth energy product class in the ith industrial manufacturing industry is shown.
3. The method for predicting the carbon emission of the park according to claim 1, wherein when the historical data of the park building energy is complete, the building energy carbon emission is calculated according to the annual consumption of the class of the building energy in the park and a carbon emission factor of a corresponding energy, and the calculation formula is as follows:
wherein,
representing the carbon emission generated by the building energy used in the garden every year,
represents the annual consumption of the jth energy class of the ith building,
a carbon emission factor representing a jth energy source of building energy;
when the historical data of the building energy in the park are missing, the carbon emission of the building energy is calculated according to the building area and the building energy structures of different types, and the calculation formula is as follows:
and correcting the carbon emission calculation of the hotel buildings by adopting the number of beds, the renting rate of guest rooms and the annual average operating days:
wherein,
a type i building area is represented,
the energy consumption intensity of the ith type of building year is expressed,
represents the j energy consumption proportion of the ith building, n 1 The number of types of buildings of hotels and guest houses is shown,
the number of beds of the hotel buildings is represented,
denotes the ithThe renting rate of guest rooms of hotel-like buildings,
represents the annual average business days of the i-th hotel building, Cf i hotel Representing the carbon emission factor, n, of the i-th hotel building unit 2 Indicating other building type numbers.
4. The campus carbon emission prediction method of claim 1 wherein, when the historical data of the campus traffic energy is complete, the energy carbon emission for traffic is calculated according to the annual consumption of energy usage by vehicles in the campus and the carbon emission factor of the corresponding energy, and the calculation formula is:
wherein,
representing the carbon emission of the garden due to the traffic energy each year,
indicating the annual consumption of the ith vehicle using the jth energy class,
a carbon rejection factor representing a jth energy source;
when the historical data of park traffic energy is missing, the logistics type traffic carbon row is calculated according to the load and the annual driving mileage, the commuting type traffic carbon row is calculated according to the daily commuting number and the annual average driving mileage, the traffic energy carbon row is obtained, and the calculation formula is as follows:
wherein o is 1 Number of types of transportation means, W i tran Indicating the loading capacity of the ith logistics transportation type vehicle,
represents the annual mileage of the i-th logistics transportation vehicle, Cf i tran Represents the energy carbon emission factor, o, of the i-th logistics transportation vehicle 2 Representing the number of types of daily commuting vehicles,
represents the number of people using the daily commuting traffic of the ith class,
representing the annual mileage, Cf, of class i daily commuting vehicles i com Representing the energy carbon emission factor of the ith class daily commuting class vehicle.
5. The campus carbon emission prediction method of claim 1, wherein when the power history data for the street lamps in the campus is complete, the carbon emission for the street lamps is calculated according to the annual power consumption of the street lamps and the power carbon emission factor of the street lamps, and the calculation formula is as follows:
when the energy historical data for the street lamp in the park is lost, the energy carbon row for the street lamp is calculated according to the road area, the number of street lamps in unit area, the average power of the street lamps and the annual working time, and the calculation formula is as follows:
wherein,
representing the carbon row produced by street lamps in the garden every year,
indicating the annual power consumption of class i street lamps, Cf i lig Represents the power carbon emission factor, S, of the i-th street lamp r Denotes the area of the park road, N lig Representing the number of street lamps per unit area, P i lig Represents the average power of the i-th street light,
and the working time of the i-th street lamp is shown.
6. The method of predicting carbon emissions from a campus of claim 1 wherein said energy carbon emission for said leisure facility is calculated from the annual average number of persons participating in said tourism activity in said campus and the average carbon emission factor, and the formula is:
wherein,
represents the carbon row produced by tourism and leisure basic facilities in the park every year,
indicating the number of annual participants in the ith type of travel event, Cf i tra And the average carbon rank factor of the ith type of travel activity project is shown.
7. The method for forecasting the carbon emission of a campus of claim 1 wherein the formula for calculating the carbon emission of the industrial process based on the annual production and carbon emission factor of the industrial product in the campus is:
wherein, CE industry Representing the carbon emissions produced by non-energy activities of industrial production every year in the park,
indicating the annual production of class i industrial products, Cf i ind Representing the carbon rejection factor of the i-th industrial product.
8. The yard carbon emission prediction method according to claim 1, wherein the formula for calculating the carbon emission from the treatment of the waste according to the annual treatment amount of the waste and the carbon emission factor of the waste in the yard is:
wherein,
representing the carbon emissions produced by the incineration of waste every year in the park,
indicating the annual treatment amount of type i waste, Cf i wat Representing the carbon rejection factor of the i-th type waste.
9. The method for predicting carbon emissions of a campus of claim 1 wherein the formula for calculating the carbon sink of green plants based on the amount of green plants planted in the campus, the carbon row absorption capacity per amount of green plants planted, and the number of days of annual photosynthesis of the green plants is:
wherein, CS plan Representing the carbon rows absorbed by photosynthesis of green plants every year in the garden,
denotes the planting amount of i-th green plants, Cf i plant The unit planting amount of the i-th green plants is expressed to absorb carbon row,
represents the number of days of annual photosynthesis of the i-th class of green plants.
10. A campus carbon emission prediction apparatus comprising:
the carbon emission prediction module for the garden energy activity is used for calculating the carbon emission of the garden energy activity according to the carbon emission of agricultural energy generated by using and consuming energy by agricultural production machinery in a garden, the carbon emission of industrial energy generated by burning fossil energy in an industrial production process by industrial enterprises staying in the garden, the carbon emission of building energy generated by building energy in the garden, the carbon emission of transportation energy generated by traffic energy in the garden, the carbon emission of energy for leisure facilities generated by tourism leisure basic facilities in the garden and the carbon emission of street lamps generated by street lamps in the garden;
the agricultural production carbon emission prediction module is used for calculating the agricultural production carbon emission according to the agricultural production activity amount and the unit carbon emission factor of the agricultural production activity in the garden;
the industrial production carbon emission prediction module is used for calculating the industrial production carbon emission according to the annual yield of the industrial products and the carbon emission factor of the industrial products in the park;
the waste treatment carbon emission prediction module is used for calculating the waste treatment carbon emission according to the annual waste treatment amount and the waste carbon emission factor in the park;
the green plant carbon sink prediction module is used for calculating green plant carbon sink according to green plant planting quantity in the park, carbon row absorption capacity of green plant unit planting quantity and annual photosynthesis days of green plants;
and the garden carbon emission prediction model building module is used for calculating according to the garden energy activity carbon emission, the agricultural production carbon emission, the industrial production carbon emission, the waste treatment carbon emission and the green plant carbon sink to obtain the annual carbon emission in the garden operation stage.
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| CN116050859A (en) * | 2022-12-07 | 2023-05-02 | 国义招标股份有限公司 | Dynamic datum line carbon emission transaction method and system based on big data |
| CN116071180A (en) * | 2022-11-23 | 2023-05-05 | 中国科学院沈阳应用生态研究所 | Facility cultivation carbon emission accounting method and system |
| CN116777706A (en) * | 2023-06-12 | 2023-09-19 | 重庆不贰科技(集团)有限公司 | Low-carbon integrity community management system and method |
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| CN117172352A (en) * | 2023-07-20 | 2023-12-05 | 南京电力设计研究院有限公司 | Carbon emission optimization design method for digital park building |
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