CN114997760B - Method and device for analyzing vulnerability of urban infrastructure group - Google Patents
Method and device for analyzing vulnerability of urban infrastructure group Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The invention provides a method and a device for analyzing the vulnerability of an urban infrastructure group, wherein the method for analyzing the vulnerability of the urban infrastructure group comprises the following steps: acquiring city infrastructure data; dividing all infrastructures in a city into city infrastructure groups according to the city infrastructure data; constructing a facility group cascade failure model for the city infrastructure group; analyzing the vulnerability of the urban infrastructure group according to the facility group cascade failure model; discovering a fragile infrastructure from all of the infrastructures of the city infrastructure group according to the vulnerabilities. According to the method, the urban infrastructure group is constructed based on the relevance among the infrastructures, the operation condition of the infrastructures is analyzed in a non-isolated manner, the actual cascade failure model of the infrastructure group is constructed based on the infrastructure load distribution after the external disturbance occurs, and the results of vulnerability analysis and the fragile infrastructure excavation are closer to reality and more effective.
Description
Technical Field
The invention relates to the technical field of infrastructure operation analysis, in particular to a method and a device for analyzing vulnerability of an urban infrastructure group.
Background
In recent years, with the rapid development of the economic society, the process of urbanization is continuously promoted, and a series of urban infrastructures constructed around the economic development, the urban resident living experience and the like promote the rapid development of the urban economy and the improvement of the urban resident living experience. Among them, infrastructures such as urban road networks, bridges, tunnels, large transportation hubs, urban commercial CBD areas, urban large functional buildings, public places, residential communities and endowment institutions have become important carriers for supporting urban operations, and these infrastructure systems are also called urban key infrastructures since they tend to have a large scale, important supporting functions and complex system interactions.
The operation of the key infrastructure of the city is directly related to the normal operation of the economy and the daily life of the urban residents. With global warming, extreme weather and various human causes, the natural environment can be a disturbing factor affecting the normal operation of the infrastructure. These interference factors (external disturbances) that affect the actual operation of the infrastructure may directly affect the normal operation of a series of infrastructures, causing cascading failures that ultimately lead to the breakdown of a significant portion of the infrastructure and even all of the associated infrastructure networks.
In order to prevent the fault of the infrastructure and the huge loss caused by the fault, the urban operators are matched with a series of operation state monitoring facility equipment for the infrastructure so as to ensure the normal operation of the infrastructure. However, the lack of effective theoretical support makes it difficult to support the analysis and management of faults caused by individual infrastructures and associations between infrastructures from separate and distributed monitoring data. In addition, the diversification of the monitoring objects and the actual operation environment of the infrastructure results in that an effective part cannot be extracted from the existing data, so that effective indexes and parameters for evaluating the operation state of the infrastructure are lacked.
Disclosure of Invention
The invention solves the problems that: how to analyze the correlation among the infrastructures based on the operation conditions of the infrastructures in extreme weather and specific scenes and analyze the operation conditions of the infrastructures in a non-isolated manner so as to effectively evaluate the infrastructures and the infrastructure groups.
In order to solve the above problems, the present invention provides a method for analyzing vulnerability of an urban infrastructure group, comprising:
acquiring city infrastructure data;
dividing all infrastructures in the city into city infrastructure groups according to the city infrastructure data;
constructing a facility group cascade failure model for the city infrastructure group;
analyzing the vulnerability of the urban infrastructure group according to the facility group cascade failure model;
discovering a fragile infrastructure from all of the infrastructures of the city infrastructure group according to the vulnerabilities.
Optionally, the obtaining city infrastructure data comprises:
data about traffic cells and data about the infrastructure within the city to be investigated are acquired.
Optionally, the dividing all infrastructures within a city into city infrastructure groups according to the city infrastructure data comprises:
dividing the infrastructure into the traffic cells in which the infrastructure is located based on the location of the infrastructure; wherein when there is a first infrastructure in the infrastructure that is located across a plurality of the traffic cells, the first infrastructure is divided into the traffic cells whose footprint is the largest;
and dividing all the infrastructures with the divided positions located in the same traffic cell into the urban infrastructure group.
Optionally, the constructing a facility group cascade failure model for the city infrastructure group comprises:
step 310, determining initial load values and load upper limit values of all the infrastructures in the urban infrastructure group;
step 320, removing an initial perturbation infrastructure in the city infrastructure group, and distributing the initial load value of the removed initial perturbation infrastructure to all first-layer infrastructures directly associated with the initial perturbation infrastructure;
and when a second layer of infrastructure with the current load value exceeding the upper load limit value exists in the first layer of infrastructure, taking the second layer of infrastructure as the initial perturbation infrastructure and repeating the step 320 until the current load values of all the first layer of infrastructure do not exceed the upper load limit value.
Optionally, the determining the initial load value and the load upper limit value of all the infrastructures in the city infrastructure group comprises:
formulating an initial load value for the infrastructure based on the functionality of the infrastructure;
determining a load upper limit value for the infrastructure based on design parameters of the infrastructure.
Optionally, the formulating an initial load value of the infrastructure based on the functionality of the infrastructure comprises:
acquiring an operation parameter time sequence of each infrastructure in the urban infrastructure group within a calibration time according to the urban infrastructure data; wherein the operational parameter time series comprises a first time series relating to traffic conditions, a second time series relating to power supply, a third time series relating to water demand and a fourth time series relating to occupancy and usage;
respectively carrying out normalization processing on the first time series, the second time series, the third time series and the fourth time series;
and performing weight distribution on the first time sequence, the second time sequence, the third time sequence and the fourth time sequence of the infrastructure, and determining an initial load value of the infrastructure according to the distributed weight and the normalized first time sequence, the normalized second time sequence, the normalized third time sequence and the normalized fourth time sequence.
Optionally, the removing an initial perturbation infrastructure of the city infrastructure group and distributing the removed initial perturbation infrastructure initial load value to all first-tier infrastructures directly associated with the initial perturbation infrastructure comprises:
step 321, calculating Pearson correlation coefficients between the time series of the operating parameters of different infrastructures within the urban infrastructure group according to the initial load values;
step 322, according to the pearson correlation coefficient, filtering a corresponding time series between different infrastructures where the pearson correlation coefficient does not satisfy a first threshold condition, and determining a correlation strength between the different infrastructures;
step 323, normalizing the association strength of each infrastructure in the city infrastructure group and the infrastructure directly associated with the infrastructure;
step 324, removing the initial perturbation infrastructure in the city infrastructure group, and distributing the initial load value of the removed initial perturbation infrastructure to all the first-layer infrastructures according to the correlation intensity ratio;
the taking the second layer of infrastructure as the initial perturbation infrastructure and repeating step 320 until the current load values of all the first layer of infrastructure do not exceed the upper load limit value comprises:
normalizing the correlation strength of each of the infrastructures within the infrastructure group and the infrastructure directly associated therewith after removing the initial disturbing infrastructure, using the second layer of infrastructure as the initial disturbing infrastructure and repeating step 324 until the current load value of all the first layer of infrastructures does not exceed the upper load limit value.
Optionally, the analyzing the vulnerability of the city infrastructure group according to the facility group cascade failure model comprises:
determining the frequency value of the operating fault of the infrastructure according to the urban infrastructure data;
determining a number of times each of the infrastructure failures are propagated within the city infrastructure group and the number of the infrastructures removed per layer;
and determining the vulnerability parameters and the vulnerability indexes of the urban infrastructure group according to the frequency values, the times and the number.
Optionally, said discovering vulnerable infrastructure from all of said infrastructures of said urban infrastructure group according to said vulnerability comprises:
calculating an average vulnerability index value of the urban infrastructure group in a first preset time period t according to the vulnerability index of the urban infrastructure group and the vulnerability parameters of each infrastructure in the urban infrastructure group
A second vulnerability path process parameter of the infrastructure
And a restoration index of the city infrastructure group
To discover the fragile infrastructure;
the average vulnerability index value
Satisfies the following conditions:
wherein the content of the first and second substances,
the vulnerability parameter value for the infrastructure at time r;
the second vulnerability path process parameter
Satisfies the following conditions:
wherein, the first and the second end of the pipe are connected with each other,
for the function of whether the initial perturbation infrastructure i will be removed when the first layer infrastructure j is removed, the removal and non-removal corresponding function values are 1 and 0, respectively; z is the total number of said infrastructures within said city infrastructure group;
the recovery index
Satisfies the following conditions:
wherein the content of the first and second substances,
represents a sum of an overload amount of each of the first-tier infrastructure j within the city infrastructure group when the first-tier infrastructure j is removed,
represents the sum of the removed number of the infrastructures except the initial perturbation infrastructure i in the cascade failure propagation process caused by the removal of the initial perturbation infrastructure i.
In order to solve the above problems, the present invention further provides an apparatus for analyzing vulnerability of an urban infrastructure group, comprising:
an acquisition unit for acquiring city infrastructure data;
the dividing unit is used for dividing all infrastructures in the city into city infrastructure groups according to the city infrastructure data;
a modeling unit for constructing a facility group cascade failure model for the city infrastructure group;
the computing unit is used for analyzing the vulnerability of the urban infrastructure group according to the facility group cascade failure model; and means for discovering a fragile infrastructure from all of the infrastructures of the city infrastructure group based on the vulnerabilities.
Compared with the prior art, the invention has the following beneficial effects: the method constructs the urban infrastructure group based on the relevance among the infrastructures, and aims to give a focus on the support effect of the urban infrastructure group on the urban operation when the urban infrastructure group responds to external disturbance; correlation between infrastructures is analyzed based on infrastructure groups to analyze the operation conditions of the infrastructures in a non-isolated manner. According to the relevance of infrastructure failure propagation in the infrastructure group, a facility group cascading failure model for the urban infrastructure group is constructed so as to be based on the reality of infrastructure load distribution after external disturbance occurs, and the actual analysis of the urban infrastructure and the infrastructure group adopting the facility group cascading failure model is closer to the reality and more effective. And quantitatively analyzing the vulnerability of the infrastructure group by using the vulnerability parameters and the like by using the facility group cascade failure model so as to completely present the failure propagation process of the actual infrastructure. On the basis of the vulnerability analysis of the urban infrastructure group, by acquiring the time series of the vulnerability parameters of all infrastructures and combining the means of statistical analysis, the infrastructure which has the greatest influence on the vulnerability of the infrastructure group can be discovered, the recovery index can be conveniently provided, and effective support is provided for determining the targeted promotion object and formulating the effective resource allocation strategy.
Drawings
FIG. 1 is a flow chart of a method for analyzing vulnerability of an urban infrastructure group in an embodiment of the present invention;
FIG. 2 is a sub-flow chart of step 200 of an embodiment of the present invention;
FIG. 3 is a sub-flowchart of step 300 according to an embodiment of the present invention;
FIG. 4 is a sub-flowchart of step 310 according to an embodiment of the present invention;
FIG. 5 is a sub-flowchart of step 311 according to an embodiment of the present invention;
FIG. 6 is a sub-flowchart of step 320 according to an embodiment of the present invention;
FIG. 7 is a sub-flowchart of step 400 according to an embodiment of the present invention;
fig. 8 is a block diagram showing the configuration of a city infrastructure group vulnerability analysis device.
Description of reference numerals:
10-an acquisition unit; 20-a dividing unit; 30-a modeling unit; 40-an arithmetic unit.
Detailed Description
In order to make the aforementioned objects, features and advantages of the present invention comprehensible, embodiments accompanied with figures are described in detail below.
Referring to fig. 1, an embodiment of the present invention provides a method for analyzing vulnerability of an urban infrastructure group, including:
step 100, urban infrastructure data is obtained.
Specifically, the method first obtains corresponding data of the infrastructure in the city to be researched, which includes operation state monitoring data, position data, function data and the like of each infrastructure in the city.
Step 200, according to the city infrastructure data, dividing all infrastructures in the city into city infrastructure groups.
Specifically, all infrastructures in a city are divided according to the city infrastructure data obtained in step 100 to obtain a plurality of infrastructure groups (city infrastructure groups). Wherein each infrastructure group comprises a plurality of infrastructures that are directly or indirectly associated (described below). Therefore, compared with a single infrastructure, the infrastructure group focuses more on actual challenges such as extreme weather, climate warming, artificial damage and attack faced by the operation of the infrastructure, so that the operation vulnerability of the urban infrastructure is analyzed based on the relevant relationship between the infrastructures and the purpose of establishing a strategy which is practical, rapid, effective and highly targeted from the perspective of management resource allocation in the actual management process.
And step 300, constructing a facility group cascade failure model related to the city infrastructure group.
Due to direct or indirect association among the infrastructures in the infrastructure group, when one infrastructure in the infrastructure group fails (fails, overloads) due to external disturbance (such as natural disaster, extreme weather, artificial damage and attack, and other environmental or artificial interference factors), other infrastructures in the infrastructure group associated with the infrastructure also fail, and cascade failure (failure propagation) is generated. Based on this, in this step, a facility group cascading failure model is constructed for analyzing load distribution and failure propagation from the failure of an infrastructure in an infrastructure group to the re-balance of the infrastructure group by removing an infrastructure in the infrastructure group.
Specifically, the facility group cascading failure model is that the initial load value (namely, the function value; wherein, the load value of the infrastructure is the size of the support effect value of the converted infrastructure on urban residents and other activities) and the load upper limit value of the infrastructure are combined, the infrastructure (marked as initial disturbance infrastructure) is removed from the infrastructure group by introducing the complete failure of the single infrastructure, then the initial load on the initial disturbance infrastructure is transferred, and the initial load on the initial disturbance infrastructure is distributed and borne by other infrastructures (marked as first-layer infrastructures) directly associated with the initial disturbance infrastructure; thereafter, the relationship between the current load (the own initial load value plus the assumed load from the initially perturbed infrastructure) of each of these first-tier infrastructures and its maximum capacity (the upper load limit) is analyzed, and if a first-tier infrastructure whose current load exceeds the upper load limit (i.e., is overloaded) is present, the first-tier infrastructure continues to be removed from the infrastructure group as a complete failure, and the current load on the first-tier infrastructure is assumed by the allocation of other unremoved infrastructures (denoted as second-tier infrastructures) directly associated with the first-tier infrastructure, and this is cycled until no more infrastructure removal occurs, and the infrastructure group is considered to be balanced. In this way, according to the facility group cascading failure model, each infrastructure within the infrastructure group is used as an initial perturbation infrastructure to perform the above operations until the infrastructure group reaches equilibrium, and all infrastructure groups in the city are subjected to the above operations for vulnerability analysis.
And 400, analyzing the vulnerability of the urban infrastructure group according to the facility group cascade failure model.
Specifically, the vulnerability of the infrastructure groups is measured by processing load distribution and failure propagation by adopting a facility group cascade failure model for each infrastructure group, and analyzing the time and the path for each infrastructure group to reach balance again after removing a certain infrastructure. The vulnerability of the infrastructure group is a weak link which is possibly damaged by external disturbance and cascade failure (failure propagation) threat utilization of the infrastructure group, corresponding time and paths can be used as vulnerability parameters of corresponding infrastructures, and the vulnerability of the urban infrastructure group is analyzed through the vulnerability parameters of all infrastructures.
Step 500, discovering vulnerable infrastructure from all infrastructures of the city infrastructure group based on vulnerability.
Specifically, after performing vulnerability analysis of the urban infrastructure group according to step 400, key facilities (denoted as vulnerable infrastructures) affecting the vulnerability of the entire infrastructure group can be discovered by statistical analysis means based on vulnerability parameters of all the infrastructures of the infrastructure group and the like.
Therefore, the method constructs the urban infrastructure group based on the relevance among the infrastructures, and aims to give a focus on the support function of the urban operation of the urban infrastructure group when the urban infrastructure responds to external disturbance; and analyzing the correlation among the infrastructures based on the infrastructure group so as to analyze the operation condition of the infrastructures in a non-isolated way. According to the relevance of infrastructure failure propagation in the infrastructure group, a facility group cascading failure model for the urban infrastructure group is constructed to be based on the reality of infrastructure load distribution after external disturbance occurs, and the actual analysis of the urban infrastructure and the infrastructure group adopting the facility group cascading failure model is closer to the reality and more effective. And quantitatively analyzing the vulnerability of the infrastructure group by using the vulnerability parameters and the like by using the facility group cascade failure model so as to completely present the failure propagation process of the actual infrastructure. On the basis of the vulnerability analysis of the urban infrastructure group, by acquiring the time series of the vulnerability parameters of all infrastructures and combining the means of statistical analysis, the infrastructure which has the greatest influence on the vulnerability of the infrastructure group can be discovered, the recovery index can be conveniently provided, and effective support is provided for determining the targeted promotion object and formulating the effective resource allocation strategy.
Optionally, step 100 comprises:
data about traffic cells and data about infrastructure within a city to be studied are acquired.
In this embodiment, the city infrastructure data includes corresponding data of all infrastructures and corresponding data of all traffic cells in the city to be studied. The corresponding data of the infrastructure includes operation state monitoring data (such as operation parameters and the like), position and distribution data, function data and the like of the infrastructure, and the corresponding data of the traffic cell includes position and distribution data and the like of the traffic cell. In some embodiments, the acquired data about the traffic cells in the city is corresponding data of the traffic cells in which all infrastructure in the city is located.
Alternatively, the city infrastructure data may be obtained through surveys or on government data open platforms or the like.
Optionally, as shown in fig. 1 and fig. 2, step 200 includes the following steps:
step 210, dividing the infrastructure into traffic cells based on the positions of the infrastructure; wherein when a first infrastructure exists in the infrastructure, the first infrastructure is divided into the traffic cells with the largest occupied area.
Specifically, after data about traffic cells and infrastructure is acquired according to step 100, infrastructure within the city is respectively divided into its traffic cells according to location and distribution data, via step 210. Wherein, for an infrastructure that is completely located within a traffic cell, the infrastructure is directly divided into the traffic cell; however, since the positions of the actual traffic cells and the positions of the infrastructures do not necessarily completely coincide, some infrastructures crossing two or more traffic cells need to be subdivided, and when an infrastructure (denoted as a first infrastructure) with a position crossing multiple traffic cells exists, the first infrastructure is divided into the traffic cell with the largest occupied ground area according to the actual occupied ground area of the first infrastructure in each traffic cell. Therefore, the basic facilities in the city are divided into corresponding traffic districts.
And step 220, dividing all the infrastructures positioned in the same traffic cell after division into an urban infrastructure group.
Specifically, after the infrastructures in the city are divided into the corresponding traffic cells in step 210, all infrastructures located in the same traffic cell after the division are divided into a city infrastructure group in step 220, and accordingly, the infrastructures in the city can be divided into a plurality of city infrastructure groups.
Thus, by dividing the urban infrastructure group, the urban infrastructure group with clear boundary and strong statistical independence can be obtained and matched with the area range of the actual region, and the subsequent steps of the method are conveniently carried out based on the urban infrastructure group so as to analyze the operation condition of the infrastructure and the like in a non-isolated way by combining the association between the infrastructures.
Optionally, as shown in fig. 1 and fig. 3, step 300 includes the following steps:
and step 310, determining initial load values and load upper limit values of all infrastructures in the city infrastructure group.
Step 320, removing the initial perturbation infrastructure in the city infrastructure group, and distributing the initial load value of the removed initial perturbation infrastructure to all the first-layer infrastructures directly associated with the initial perturbation infrastructure;
when a second layer of infrastructure with the current load value exceeding the upper load limit value exists in the first layer of infrastructure, the second layer of infrastructure is used as an initial disturbance infrastructure, and the step 320 is repeated until the current load values of all the first layer of infrastructure do not exceed the upper load limit value.
Step 300 provides for constructing a facility group cascade failure model from a city infrastructure group. The infrastructure group cascading failure model is used for analyzing load distribution and failure propagation during the period from the failure of an infrastructure in an infrastructure group to the re-balance of the infrastructure group by removing a certain infrastructure in the infrastructure group, and particularly, through the steps 310 and 320, combining an initial load value and a load upper limit value of the infrastructure, removing the infrastructure (marked as an initial disturbance infrastructure) from the infrastructure group by introducing the complete failure of a single infrastructure, and then carrying out the transfer of the initial load on the initial disturbance infrastructure, and distributing and bearing the initial load on the initial disturbance infrastructure by other infrastructures (marked as first-layer infrastructures) directly associated with the initial disturbance infrastructure; thereafter, the relationship between the current load (self initial load value plus assumed load from the initially perturbed infrastructure) of each of these first-tier infrastructures and its maximum capacity (load upper limit) is analyzed, if a first-tier infrastructure whose current load exceeds the load upper limit (i.e., is overloaded) occurs, the first-tier infrastructure continues to be removed from the infrastructure group as a complete failure, the current load on the first-tier infrastructure is assumed by the allocation of other unremoved infrastructures (denoted as second-tier infrastructures) directly associated with the first-tier infrastructure, and then the second-tier infrastructure is repeated as the initially perturbed infrastructure in step 310 to repeat step 320 until the newly obtained current load values of all first-tier infrastructures do not exceed the corresponding load upper limit, and no more removal of infrastructures occurs, and the infrastructure group is considered to be balanced.
Optionally, as shown in fig. 3 and 4, step 310 includes the following steps:
step 311, based on the function of the infrastructure, formulating an initial load value of the infrastructure;
the upper load limit of the infrastructure is determined based on design parameters of the infrastructure, step 312.
Specifically, an initial load value and a load upper limit value of all the infrastructures in each city infrastructure group are determined (established), via step 311. Since the types of the actual urban infrastructure are many, from the perspective of the functions in the actual scene, the functional value (initial load value) of the infrastructure can be formulated by combining different Demand levels in four aspects of Traffic Conditions (TC), power Supplies (PS), water Demand (WD), and residences and uses (HR) so that the initial load value of the infrastructure can more comprehensively relate to various functions of the infrastructure, and the correlation analysis based on the initial load value in the subsequent steps is more reliable. The load upper limit (maximum capacity) of the infrastructure is determined according to design parameters of the infrastructure, via step 312, in conjunction with the initial load value established in step 311, for comparison with the current load of the infrastructure to determine whether the infrastructure will fail (overload) after assuming the allocated load.
Optionally, as shown in fig. 4 and fig. 5, step 311 includes the following steps:
311a, acquiring an operation parameter time sequence of each infrastructure in the urban infrastructure group within a calibration time according to the urban infrastructure data; wherein the operational parameter time series comprises a first time series relating to traffic conditions, a second time series relating to power supply, a third time series relating to water demand and a fourth time series relating to occupancy and usage;
from the functional point of view of the infrastructure in its actual scenario, the initial load value of the facility is established based on a time series of operating parameters of the infrastructure in terms of traffic conditions TC, power supply PS, water demand WD, occupancy and usage HR. Specifically, each city infrastructure group in the city to be researched is obtained from the city infrastructure data in step 311aA time series of operating parameters of the respective infrastructure, the time series of operating parameters comprising a first time series relating to traffic conditions TC
Second time series for power supply PS
A third time series relating to the water demand WD
And a fourth time sequence relating to occupancy and use of HR
. Preferably, an operation parameter time sequence within a period of time (calibration time) is acquired, so that the operation analysis amount of corresponding data is reduced while the requirement of the method is ensured; the specific calibration time can be set according to actual requirements.
Step 311b, performing normalization processing on the first time series, the second time series, the third time series, and the fourth time series, respectively.
Specifically, through step 311b, the values in the time series are mapped to [0,1] to eliminate the influence of dimension on the final result, so as to facilitate the analysis and comparison between the time series. Illustratively, the mean normalization of the first time series yields:
wherein the content of the first and second substances,
i.e. a first time series of initial traffic condition operating parameters of infrastructure i,
is composed of
Average value of (a). Similarly, can obtain
、
、
。
And 311c, performing weight distribution on the first time sequence, the second time sequence, the third time sequence and the fourth time sequence of the infrastructure, and determining an initial load value of the infrastructure according to the distributed weight and the normalized first time sequence, the normalized second time sequence, the normalized third time sequence and the normalized fourth time sequence.
Specifically, in step 311c, weight distribution is performed according to different demand levels of the infrastructure in the four aspects of traffic condition TC, power supply PS, water demand WD, occupancy and usage HR, so as to obtain four weight coefficients corresponding to the first time series, the second time series, the third time series and the fourth time series respectively
、
、
、
Thus, the initial load value of infrastructure i can be formulated as:
optionally, as shown in fig. 3 and fig. 6, step 320 includes the following steps:
step 321, calculating a pearson correlation coefficient between the operation parameter time series of different infrastructures in the city infrastructure group according to the initial load value.
In this step, time series correlations of different infrastructures in the city infrastructure group in four aspects of traffic condition TC, power supply PS, water demand WD, residence and use HR are calculated respectively according to parameters such as initial load values of infrastructures in the city infrastructure group. The following example is based on different infrastructures i and j within the same city infrastructure group, for which there are four normalized time series for each infrastructure i and j
And
time series correlations of infrastructures i and j in terms of traffic conditions TC, power supply PS, water demand WD, occupancy and use HR are calculated, respectively. In an exemplary manner, the first and second electrodes are,
wherein, the first and the second end of the pipe are connected with each other,
the pearson correlation coefficient of the infrastructure i and the infrastructure j in terms of the traffic condition is used for representing the correlation of the infrastructure i and the infrastructure j in terms of the traffic condition. Similarly, pearson's correlation coefficients for infrastructure i and infrastructure j in terms of power supply, water demand, occupancy, and usage, respectively, may be determined
、
、
。
Step 322, according to the pearson correlation coefficient, filtering the corresponding time series between different infrastructures for which the pearson correlation coefficient does not satisfy the first threshold condition, and determining the correlation strength between different infrastructures.
Obtaining Pearson correlation coefficient sequence of infrastructure i and infrastructure j in traffic condition, power supply, water demand, residence and use
Thereafter, the same set of correlation thresholds can be set for all infrastructures
To filter connections that are not strong enough and have a significant correlation. Specifically, the first threshold condition is: the corresponding time series with Pearson correlation coefficient smaller than the corresponding threshold are considered not to satisfy the first threshold condition, and the value thereof is in the following correlation strength
Wherein the value is changed to 0; the respective time series having Pearson's correlation coefficient greater than or equal to the corresponding threshold are considered to satisfy a first threshold condition, whose value is the strength of the subsequent correlation
The formula is unchanged. Illustratively, in terms of traffic conditions, the pearson correlation coefficient for any one traffic condition is:
thereafter, for different infrastructures, due to differences in their importance for the correlation between traffic conditions, power supply, water demand, occupancy and usage, when determining the strength of the correlation between the different infrastructures,a specific contact weight (weight parameter) can be set for each infrastructure; for example, for a power plant, when analyzing the connection with other infrastructure, the connection weight of the power supply may be 0.8, and the other three items may be 0.2, and similarly, the connection weight of the water supply (water demand) from the water plant may be 0.8, and the other three items may be 0.2, which are mainly determined by the characteristics of the infrastructure itself. Illustratively, for infrastructure i, contact weights for four aspects are set
. Then, the strength of association between infrastructure i and infrastructure j is determined
When the temperature of the water is higher than the set temperature,
namely:
in this way, the strength of association between the various infrastructures within the infrastructure group is determined.
Step 323, normalizing the association strength of each infrastructure in the city infrastructure group and the infrastructure directly associated with the infrastructure.
Specifically, the strength of association between each infrastructure in the infrastructure group and the infrastructure associated therewith is calculated, and the obtained strength of association values are normalized. Normalized as follows
Then obtain
Comprises the following steps:
where k is all the infrastructures directly associated with infrastructure i,
is the sum of the strength of association between all infrastructure connected to infrastructure i and infrastructure i.
Step 324, removing the initial disturbance infrastructure in the city infrastructure group, and distributing the initial load value of the removed initial disturbance infrastructure to all first-layer infrastructures according to the associated intensity ratio;
when a second layer of infrastructure exists in the first layer of infrastructure, the current load value of which exceeds the load upper limit value, normalization processing is performed on the association strength of each infrastructure and the infrastructure directly associated with the infrastructure in the infrastructure group after the initial disturbance infrastructure is removed, and the second layer of infrastructure is taken as the initial disturbance infrastructure to repeat the step 324 until the current load values of all the first layer of infrastructure do not exceed the corresponding load upper limit value.
Specifically, according to the theory of cascade failure, assuming that the initial perturbation infrastructure i is removed, the load value thereon
Will be allocated on top of each first level infrastructure with which it is directly associated, in terms of the associated intensity ratio. Illustratively, the specific assignment is proportional to the corresponding correlation strength, which can be determined according to step 323
Calculating the load allocated to a first layer infrastructure j
Comprises the following steps:
the current load on infrastructure j changes from the initial load value to
The method comprises the following steps:
then by comparing the current load on j with the magnitude of its upper limit, it is determined whether further removal of infrastructure j is required, with:
wherein the content of the first and second substances,
represents the status value of infrastructure j, 0 represents removal, 1 represents reservation;
is the load upper limit value. If it is necessary to further remove the infrastructure j, that is, there is a second layer of infrastructure whose current load value exceeds its upper load limit value in the first layer of infrastructure, at this time, due to the change of the topology (the change of the current load of part of the infrastructure), the connection and the association strength of the infrastructure affected by the previous removal need to be normalized again. Thereafter, the above operations are repeated until the system returns to the equilibrium state again. It is worth mentioning that the initial disturbing infrastructure is the infrastructure of the first (hypothetical) removal in the city infrastructure group, the first layer of infrastructure is the infrastructure directly associated with the initial disturbing infrastructure, the second layer of infrastructure is the infrastructure overloaded in the first layer of infrastructure; when the second tier infrastructure is load-allocated, its current load value (the initial load value of the second tier infrastructure plus the load value allocated from the initial perturbation infrastructure) is allocated.
In the case of renormalization, in the process of cascade failure of the entire city infrastructure group, the topology of the infrastructure group changes due to the removal of the infrastructure, and therefore the correlation strength in each of the infrastructure groups needs to be renormalized. Illustratively, the matrix of initial correlation strengths for the city infrastructure group is:
which is composed of
A symmetric matrix, where Z is the number of infrastructures within the infrastructure group. Comprises the following steps:
this is because the infrastructure group itself is not directional; and, because there is no self-connected connection, the supply of each infrastructure has initially removed its own consumption, in effect from the supply relationship. Then, after removing an initially disturbed infrastructure,
the symmetric matrix then becomes
Symmetric matrix:
in this manner, subsequent removal of infrastructure repeats the above operations in response to a cascade failure.
Alternatively, if the connection strength of two infrastructures is greater than or equal to a second threshold, it is determined that the two infrastructures are directly associated. Two infrastructures indirectly associated are associated with each other through an infrastructure directly associated in turn, for example, infrastructure a is considered indirectly associated with infrastructure d if infrastructure a is not directly associated with infrastructure d, but infrastructure a is directly associated with infrastructure b, infrastructure b is directly associated with infrastructure c, and infrastructure c is directly associated with infrastructure d. The second threshold value can be set according to actual requirements; illustratively, the second threshold may take 0.
Optionally, as shown in fig. 1 and fig. 7, step 400 includes the following steps:
and step 410, determining the frequency value of the operation fault of the infrastructure according to the urban infrastructure data.
Specifically, the frequency value of the occurrence of the respective actual operational failure of all (Z) infrastructures within the city infrastructure group is determined based on historical operational data of the actual infrastructures (e.g., from step 100)
Are respectively as
。
The number of times each infrastructure failure within the city infrastructure group is propagated and the number of infrastructures removed at a time is determined 420.
Specifically, according to the facility group cascade failure model, after the initial disturbance infrastructure (initial disturbance infrastructure) i in the city infrastructure group is removed, according to the redistribution of the load and the influence caused by the redistribution on other infrastructures, the duration and the path of the process in the city infrastructure group, that is, the actual magnitude of the influence, can be determined, i.e., can be used as the vulnerability parameter of the initial disturbance infrastructure i. Wherein the number of propagation of infrastructure failures
The number of failure propagation from failure of an initially disturbed infrastructure within a city infrastructure group to re-equilibrium of the infrastructure group, e.g., if the initially disturbed infrastructure failure is removed, the initial load value is assigned to the first level infrastructure before the first level infrastructure is removedOverload occurs and the infrastructure group has re-reached equilibrium, during which the number of failure propagation times is 1. For each amount of infrastructure removed, for example, the amount of infrastructure removed for the first failure propagation within the infrastructure group is the amount of initially perturbed infrastructure where the failure occurred, and the amount of infrastructure removed for the second failure propagation is the amount of second layer infrastructure in the first layer infrastructure where the failure occurred.
And 430, determining the vulnerability parameters and the vulnerability indexes of the urban infrastructure group according to the frequency values, the times and the number.
Illustratively, with the removal of infrastructure i within a city infrastructure group as an initial perturbation, the failure is in a cascading failure model within the infrastructure group, if any
The second propagation is to
As vulnerability time course parameter of infrastructure i
Namely:
similarly, for cascading failures of multiple layers (times) of infrastructure actually caused by removing the infrastructure i, the whole cascading failure path is taken as the vulnerability path process parameter of the infrastructure i
The method comprises the following steps:
wherein the content of the first and second substances,
is the amount of removed infrastructure in a cascading failure process (failure propagation process) within the same infrastructure group due to the removal of infrastructure i. The vulnerability parameter values of all the infrastructures in the infrastructure group can be obtained by performing the above operations on all the infrastructures in the infrastructure group.
After calculating the vulnerability parameters for all infrastructures within all groups of infrastructures, the vulnerability parameters for all infrastructures within a group of infrastructures will collectively serve as an indicator for measuring the vulnerability of the entire group of infrastructuresVI. Vulnerability indicators for infrastructure groupsVIComprises the following steps:
wherein the content of the first and second substances,
is the frequency value at which the fault occurs for the actual operation of infrastructure i.
Optionally, step 500 comprises:
calculating the average vulnerability index value of the urban infrastructure group in a first preset time period t according to the vulnerability index of the urban infrastructure group and the vulnerability parameters of each infrastructure in the urban infrastructure group
Second vulnerability path process parameter of infrastructure
And recovery index of urban infrastructure group
To discover fragile infrastructure;
average vulnerability index value
Satisfies the following conditions:
wherein the content of the first and second substances,
a vulnerability parameter value for the infrastructure at time r;
second vulnerability path Process parameter
Satisfies the following conditions:
wherein the content of the first and second substances,
for the function of whether the initial perturbation infrastructure i will be removed when the first layer infrastructure j is removed, the removal and non-removal corresponding function values are 1 and 0, respectively; z is the total number of infrastructures within the city infrastructure group;
recovery index
Satisfies the following conditions:
wherein the content of the first and second substances,
representing the sum of the overload of the first layer infrastructure j when each first layer infrastructure j within the city infrastructure group is removed,
indicating cascading failure due to removal of the initial perturbation infrastructure iThe sum of the number of removed infrastructures in the propagation process except the initial perturbation infrastructure i.
Specifically, as for the average vulnerability index value, the functional values of the infrastructure change at the same time due to the volatility of the actual infrastructure operating state, and thus the vulnerability parameter value and index also change accordingly. From the aspect of discovering the fragile infrastructure, on t time nodes in a time period, solving the average vulnerability index value of the infrastructure:
wherein the content of the first and second substances,
is the vulnerability parameter value of the infrastructure at time r. Can be combined with
As an index for exploring fragile infrastructure; for example, an infrastructure whose vulnerability parameter value is greater than the average vulnerability index value may be the focus of discovering the vulnerable infrastructure.
For the second vulnerable path process parameter of the infrastructure, there is a second vulnerable path process parameter in the infrastructure group since the more vulnerable the infrastructure is, the higher the possibility of actually having the cascade failure, the
：
Wherein the content of the first and second substances,
for function functions that were removed or not removed by the initial perturbation infrastructure i when the first layer of infrastructure j was removed, removing and not removing corresponding function values, respectivelyAre 1 and 0. For the second vulnerability path process parameter, it is the ratio of the initial disturbance infrastructure i total number corresponding to it when J is calculated as the first layer infrastructure in the infrastructure group to the infrastructure total number except J in the infrastructure group. Thus, the larger the second vulnerability path process parameter, the more vulnerable its corresponding infrastructure.
For the recovery index, from the view of distribution of infrastructure resources in extreme weather, natural disasters, artificial damage and attack scenes, the removal of the initial disturbance of the cascade failure is due to external factors, so that the factor which can be actually controlled is the first layer of infrastructure, and the resistance (the capacity of resisting external disturbance and cascade failure) of an infrastructure group can be improved without failure. Comprises the following steps:
wherein the content of the first and second substances,
represents the sum of the overload of the first layer infrastructure j when each first layer infrastructure j within the city infrastructure group is removed,
representing the sum of the number of removed infrastructures except the original perturbation infrastructure i in the propagation process of the cascading failure caused by the removal of the original perturbation infrastructure i. The recovery indicator represents the size of a certain amount of recovery resources so as to avoid the reduction of system functions due to system vulnerability;
the larger the overall infrastructure group is, the more resistant it is, the higher the actual boost functionality of the restoration strategy for this infrastructure. The recovery strategy of the infrastructure is a resource allocation rule when the infrastructure needs to invest in resources such as manpower, material resources, machines and the like for recovery after encountering external disturbance.
Referring to fig. 8, another embodiment of the present invention provides an apparatus for analyzing vulnerability of an urban infrastructure group, including:
an acquisition unit 10 for acquiring city infrastructure data;
a dividing unit 20, configured to divide all infrastructures in a city into city infrastructure groups according to city infrastructure data;
a modeling unit 30 for constructing a facility group cascade failure model with respect to the city infrastructure group;
the arithmetic unit 40 is used for analyzing the vulnerability of the urban infrastructure group according to the facility group cascade failure model; and for discovering a fragile infrastructure from all infrastructures of the urban infrastructure group based on the vulnerability.
In this embodiment, the city infrastructure group vulnerability analysis apparatus implements (executes) the city infrastructure group vulnerability analysis method by the cooperation of the structures of the acquisition unit 10, the division unit 20, the modeling unit 30, the calculation unit 40, and the like, thereby ensuring that the city infrastructure group vulnerability analysis method can be smoothly and stably executed to implement the city infrastructure group vulnerability analysis.
Although the present disclosure has been described above, the scope of the present disclosure is not limited thereto. Various changes and modifications may be made by those skilled in the art without departing from the spirit and scope of the disclosure, and these changes and modifications are intended to fall within the scope of the invention.
Claims (8)
1. A method for analyzing vulnerability of urban infrastructure groups is characterized by comprising the following steps:
acquiring city infrastructure data;
dividing all infrastructures in the city into city infrastructure groups according to the city infrastructure data;
constructing a facility group cascade failure model for the city infrastructure group;
analyzing the vulnerability of the urban infrastructure group according to the facility group cascade failure model;
discovering a fragile infrastructure from all of the infrastructures of the city infrastructure group according to the vulnerabilities;
wherein the analyzing the vulnerability of the urban infrastructure group according to the facility group cascade failure model comprises:
determining the frequency value of the operating fault of the infrastructure according to the urban infrastructure data;
determining a number of times each of the infrastructure failures are propagated within the city infrastructure group and the number of the infrastructures removed per layer;
according to the frequency value, the times and the number, determining vulnerability parameters and vulnerability indexes of the urban infrastructure group;
said discovering vulnerable infrastructure from all of said infrastructures of said urban infrastructure group according to said vulnerability comprises:
calculating an average vulnerability index value of the urban infrastructure group in a first preset time period t according to the vulnerability index of the urban infrastructure group and the vulnerability parameters of each infrastructure in the urban infrastructure group
A second vulnerability path process parameter of the infrastructure
And a restoration index of the city infrastructure group
To discover the fragile infrastructure;
the average vulnerability index value
Satisfies the following conditions:
wherein, the first and the second end of the pipe are connected with each other,
the vulnerability parameter value for the infrastructure at time r;
the second vulnerability path process parameter
Satisfies the following conditions:
wherein, the first and the second end of the pipe are connected with each other,
for the function of whether the initial perturbation infrastructure i will be removed when the first layer infrastructure j is removed, the removal and non-removal corresponding function values are 1 and 0, respectively; z is the total number of said infrastructures within said city infrastructure group;
the recovery index
Satisfies the following conditions:
wherein the content of the first and second substances,
、
representing the initial load values of infrastructure i and j respectively,
by a normalized basisStrength of association between Shi i and infrastructure j
So as to obtain the composite material,
represents the upper limit of the load of infrastructure j;
represents a sum of an overload amount of each of the first-tier infrastructure j within the city infrastructure group when the first-tier infrastructure j is removed,
represents the sum of the removed number of the infrastructures except the initial perturbation infrastructure i in the cascade failure propagation process caused by the removal of the initial perturbation infrastructure i.
2. The city infrastructure group vulnerability analysis method of claim 1, wherein the obtaining city infrastructure data comprises:
data about traffic cells and data about the infrastructure within the city to be investigated are acquired.
3. The city infrastructure group vulnerability analysis method of claim 2, wherein the dividing all infrastructures within a city into city infrastructure groups according to the city infrastructure data comprises:
dividing the infrastructure into the traffic cells in which the infrastructure is located based on the location of the infrastructure; wherein when there is a first infrastructure in the infrastructure that is located across a plurality of the traffic cells, the first infrastructure is divided into the traffic cells whose footprint is the largest;
and dividing all the infrastructures with the divided positions located in the same traffic cell into the urban infrastructure group.
4. The city infrastructure group vulnerability analysis method of any of claims 1-3, wherein the constructing a facility group cascade failure model for the city infrastructure group comprises:
step 310, determining initial load values and load upper limit values of all the infrastructures in the urban infrastructure group;
step 320, removing an initial perturbation infrastructure in the city infrastructure group, and distributing the removed initial load value of the initial perturbation infrastructure to all first-layer infrastructures directly associated with the initial perturbation infrastructure;
and when a second layer of infrastructure with the current load value exceeding the upper load limit value exists in the first layer of infrastructure, taking the second layer of infrastructure as the initial perturbation infrastructure and repeating the step 320 until the current load values of all the first layer of infrastructure do not exceed the upper load limit value.
5. The city infrastructure group vulnerability analysis method of claim 4, wherein the determining the initial load value and the upper load limit value of all the infrastructures in the city infrastructure group comprises:
formulating an initial load value for the infrastructure based on the functionality of the infrastructure;
determining a load upper limit value for the infrastructure based on design parameters for the infrastructure.
6. The city infrastructure group vulnerability analysis method of claim 5, wherein the formulating an initial load value of the infrastructure based on the functionality of the infrastructure comprises:
acquiring an operation parameter time sequence of each infrastructure in the city infrastructure group within a calibration time according to the city infrastructure data; wherein the operational parameter time series comprises a first time series relating to traffic conditions, a second time series relating to power supply, a third time series relating to water demand and a fourth time series relating to occupancy and usage;
respectively carrying out normalization processing on the first time series, the second time series, the third time series and the fourth time series;
and performing weight distribution on the first time sequence, the second time sequence, the third time sequence and the fourth time sequence of the infrastructure, and determining an initial load value of the infrastructure according to the distributed weight and the normalized first time sequence, the normalized second time sequence, the normalized third time sequence and the normalized fourth time sequence.
7. The city infrastructure group vulnerability analysis method of claim 6, wherein the removing initial perturbation infrastructure in the city infrastructure group and distributing the removed initial perturbation infrastructure initial load values onto all first level infrastructures directly associated with the initial perturbation infrastructure comprises:
step 321, calculating a pearson correlation coefficient between the operation parameter time series of different infrastructures in the urban infrastructure group according to the initial load value;
step 322, according to the pearson correlation coefficient, filtering a corresponding time series between different infrastructures where the pearson correlation coefficient does not satisfy a first threshold condition, and determining a correlation strength between the different infrastructures;
step 323, normalizing the strength of association of each said infrastructure and the infrastructure directly associated therewith within said urban infrastructure group;
step 324, removing the initial perturbation infrastructure in the city infrastructure group, and distributing the initial load value of the removed initial perturbation infrastructure to all the first-layer infrastructures according to the correlation intensity ratio;
the taking the second layer infrastructure as the initial perturbation infrastructure and repeating step 320 until the current load values of all the first layer infrastructures do not exceed the upper load limit value comprises:
normalizing the strength of association of each of the infrastructures within the infrastructure group with the initial disturbing infrastructure removed and the infrastructure directly associated therewith, using the second layer infrastructure as the initial disturbing infrastructure and repeating step 324 until the current load values of all the first layer infrastructures do not exceed the upper load limit.
8. An apparatus for analyzing vulnerability of urban infrastructure groups, comprising:
an acquisition unit (10) for acquiring city infrastructure data;
a dividing unit (20) for dividing all infrastructures within a city into city infrastructure groups according to the city infrastructure data;
a modeling unit (30) for constructing a facility group cascade failure model for the city infrastructure group;
a computing unit (40) for analyzing the vulnerability of the urban infrastructure group according to the facility group cascade failure model; and for discovering a fragile infrastructure from all of the infrastructures of the city infrastructure group based on the vulnerabilities;
wherein the analyzing the vulnerability of the urban infrastructure group according to the facility group cascade failure model comprises:
determining the frequency value of the operating fault of the infrastructure according to the urban infrastructure data;
determining a number of times each of the infrastructure failures are propagated within the city infrastructure group and the number of the infrastructures removed per layer;
according to the frequency value, the times and the number, determining a vulnerability parameter and a vulnerability index of the urban infrastructure group;
said discovering vulnerable infrastructure from all of said infrastructures of said urban infrastructure group according to said vulnerability comprises:
calculating an average vulnerability index value of the urban infrastructure group in a first preset time period t according to the vulnerability index of the urban infrastructure group and the vulnerability parameters of each infrastructure in the urban infrastructure group
A second vulnerability path process parameter of the infrastructure
And a restoration index of the city infrastructure group
To discover the fragile infrastructure;
the average vulnerability index value
Satisfies the following conditions:
wherein the content of the first and second substances,
the vulnerability parameter value for the infrastructure at time r;
the second vulnerability path process parameter
Satisfies the following conditions:
wherein the content of the first and second substances,
for the function of whether the initial perturbation infrastructure i will be removed when the first layer infrastructure j is removed, the removal and non-removal corresponding function values are 1 and 0, respectively; z is the total number of said infrastructures within said city infrastructure group;
the recovery index
Satisfies the following conditions:
wherein, the first and the second end of the pipe are connected with each other,
、
representing the initial load values of infrastructure i and j respectively,
by normalizing the strength of association between infrastructure i and infrastructure j
So as to obtain the compound with the characteristics of,
represents the upper limit of the load of infrastructure j;
represents a sum of an overload amount of each of the first-tier infrastructure j within the city infrastructure group when the first-tier infrastructure j is removed,
represents the sum of the removed number of the infrastructures except the initial perturbation infrastructure i in the cascade failure propagation process caused by the removal of the initial perturbation infrastructure i.
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