CN114037152A - Forest fire forecasting and fire spreading calculating method - Google Patents
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Abstract
The invention discloses a forest fire forecasting and fire spread calculating method. Establishing a logistic regression model by selecting forest fire risk factors, and predicting and forecasting forest fire occurrence; meanwhile, a forest class fire spreading simulation method based on plane octree is adopted to respectively calculate spreading speeds in 8 directions, realize forest class fire area simulation based on raster image data, and accurately simulate forest class fire spreading. A software platform system integrating forest fire forecasting and spreading is designed and developed, various video monitoring systems of forest fire monitoring, forecasting, forest fire spreading, fire extinguishing intelligence and the like are integrated uniformly, and first-hand information is provided for forest fire fighting decision-making.
Description
One, the technical field
The invention relates to a forest fire spreading simulation method for guiding forest fire prediction and forest small-class scale, in particular to a display method for predicting forest fire occurrence and spreading by a logistic regression method and adopting a forest fire spreading simulation method established by a plane octree and finally systematically predicting forest fire occurrence and spreading by a mobile phone software integration mode.
Second, background Art
The forest fire prediction model based on logistic regression is a prediction model with high accuracy in China at present, all factors (combustible data, meteorological and humanistic factors) influencing forest fire occurrence are used as independent variable participation models to be established, certain fire point data and non-fire point data are selected to participate in modeling, the precision of the model is improved, invalid data in the model are removed, collinearity diagnosis is carried out, invalid and multiple collinearity variables are removed, and the precision of the model is improved. The combustible factors are added into the comprehensive prediction of fire danger, so that the forest fire prediction is more comprehensive, and the fitting effect is better;
the forest fire spreading models most applied in China comprise a Rothermel model and a Wangzhennon forest fire spreading model. The Wangzheng non-forest fire spreading model is only suitable for the situation that the slope is below 60 degrees, the condition that wind goes up along the upward slope, and then the wind direction and the terrain are combined by considering the wind direction and the terrain by Maoxianxiang and other people, 5 direction equation sets of the wind direction and the direction of the upward slope, the downward slope, the left flat slope, the right flat slope and the wind direction are derived, and the forest fire spreading speed in the five directions can be obtained through calculation. In the practical application of the forest fire spreading model after the Wangxingfei and Mao xianxian and other extensions, the practical application is limited because only the parameters of the wind speeds in the five directions are considered. According to the method, the forest fire spreading speeds in eight directions are calculated on the scale of a forest class, and the forest fire spreading speeds are used for simulating forest fire spreading, so that a simulation result with higher precision can be obtained;
in order to improve the efficiency of forest fire prediction and identification, the invention designs a forest fire prediction and weather determination system based on a mobile phone APP, which can monitor the weather condition of the area in real time on site, predict the fire danger condition of the area, perform fire danger grade determination in time, make prospective preparation and prevention, reduce the occurrence probability of forest fire and reduce loss.
Third, the invention
In order to improve the accuracy of forest fire prediction, various influence factors influencing forest fire occurrence are considered, and data which are as long as possible are selected. When a forest fire prediction model is established, satellite monitoring hot spot data is used as fire point data, besides the fire point data, a certain amount of random points are required to be established as non-fire points to participate in fitting, the fire points and the random points jointly form sample points, and ArcGIS is used for establishing the random points. The fire points are selected randomly according to the fire point data of nearly 20 years across the country. The random point is established by ensuring that the random point falls on the forest land, so the range of the forest land is extracted by using the national land utilization data of 2015 as the basis, and the random point is established in the range. Since the random point needs to be matched with the daily meteorological data, after the random point is created, date assignment needs to be carried out on the random point in Excel, and the creation of the random point needs to follow double random in time and space.
In order to improve the accuracy of the forest fire prediction model, longitude, latitude, altitude, gradient, average earth surface air temperature, 20-hour accumulated precipitation, average air pressure, average relative humidity, minimum relative humidity, sunshine hours, average wind speed, maximum wind speed, combustible water content, combustible loading capacity, combustible ignition point, distance from a road and distance from a residential point are added into the influencing factors. Factors influencing forest fire occurrence more closely explode the liver and pay attention to the correlation among the factors.
In order to improve the precision of forest class fire spreading simulation, the invention aims to provide a forest class fire spreading simulation method based on a planar octree. The purpose of the invention is realized as follows: the fire spreading direction of the forest class is respectively an upward slope, a downward slope, a left flat slope, a right flat slope and a left upward slope by taking the ignition point as the center, and 8 directions of the left downward slope, the right upward slope and the right downward slope are the fire spreading direction of the forest class.
The process of forest class forest fire spread simulation is as follows: firstly, determining a pixel where a fire point M is located on raster data; secondly, calculating the distance S between the center of the pixel where the fire point M is located and the center of 8 adjacent pixels around the fire point M; then, by analogy with
Calculating the spreading time t of the fire point M along 8 directions1-t8(ii) a And finally, calculating the spreading paths of the fire point M in 8 directions by using an octree-like algorithm until the t values of all the boundary points in 8 directions are greater than the spreading time, wherein all the grids marked as fire passing points are the fire regions.
Compared with the prior art, the invention has the following advantages:
combustible data are added in the forest fire prediction aspect to replace NDVI (normalized difference of viscosity) indexes used in a general forest fire prediction model, so that the problem of inaccurate fitting effect caused by different regionalities is solved, and the model is more practical and simpler.
The forest fire is simulated from 8 directions on the forest fire spreading model, the imperfection of simulating the forest fire only through five directions of speed in the prior art is avoided, the forest fire spreading model is strong in dynamic property, few in dependent parameters, convenient to obtain and capable of improving the precision and efficiency of simulation, and therefore the positions of all directions of the forest fire after spreading can be accurately positioned, and the forest fire spreading model has the characteristics of simplicity and feasibility; the process of forest fire spread in small groups can be directly simulated according to the proposed plane octree algorithm.
In order to effectively manage and supervise forest growth and prevent forest fire, the invention provides a device and a method for integrally observing forest fire, tree measurement and environment information based on a smart phone. The system consists of a smart phone, a monocular telescope, a meteorological determinator (consisting of a plurality of meteorological sensors), a micro growth cone, a mobile phone microscope and matched software; the scheme of forest fire, tree measurement, environmental information supervision and determination is realized.
Description of the drawings
The invention is further illustrated with reference to the following figures and examples.
FIG. 1 is a schematic view of 8 directions of fire propagation of an ignition source forest;
FIG. 2 is a schematic view of a forest fire spreading plane octree in a forest class;
FIG. 3 is a platform system presentation diagram;
fifth, detailed description of the invention
Different from the traditional model, a forest fire spreading model based on logistic regression is added with a plurality of types of influence factors for fitting, so that the correlation and the fitting effect of the model are higher; the method comprises the following steps:
the following factors are first obtained and/or added:
longitude, latitude, altitude, gradient, average earth surface air temperature, 20 hours cumulative precipitation, average air pressure, average relative humidity, minimum relative humidity, sunshine hours, average wind speed, maximum wind speed, distance from a road and distance from a residential point;
fire risk factor variable table
The forest class forest fire spreading simulation method based on the plane octree is different from the prior art, and is greatly improved, and specifically comprises the following steps:
the fire spreading direction of the forest class is divided into an upward slope, a downward slope, a left flat slope, a right flat slope and a left upward slope by taking the ignition point as the center, and 8 directions of the left downward slope, the right upward slope and the right downward slope are the fire spreading direction and the fire spreading speed of the forest class.
Ascending: r ═ R0×Ks×exp(0.1783Vcosθ)×exp (3.553(tanφ)1.2)
And (3) ascending on the right: r ═ R0×Ks×exp(0.1783Vcos(θ-45°))×exp {3.553[tan(φ×cos45°)]1.2}
And (3) leveling the slope on the right side: r ═ R0×Ks×exp(0.1783Vcos(θ-90°))
Right downhill slope: r ═ R0×Ks×exp(0.1783Vcos(θ-135°))×exp {-3.553[tan(φ×cos45°)]1.2}
Descending a slope: r ═ R0×Ks×exp(0.1783Vcos(180°-θ))×exp (-3.553(tanφ)1.2)
Left downhill:
R＝R0×Ks×exp(0.1783Vcos(θ-225°))×exp {-3.553[tan(φ×cos(-45°)]1.2}
left side flat slope: r ═ R0×Ks×exp(0.1783Vcos(θ+90°))
And (3) upward left slope:
R＝R0×Ks×exp(0.1783Vcos(θ-315°))×exp {3.553[tan(φ×cos(-45)°)]1.2}
[ in the formula: r0Is the initial velocity of the spread, KSIs the coefficient of the combustibles,
the method comprises the following steps of (1) setting a terrain slope angle, wherein V is a wind speed, and theta is a wind direction angle; (the direction of uphill slope OV)1Rotating clockwise, when coincident with the wind direction, by an angle equal to θ)]；
Secondly, inputting a topographic map by using geographic information system software and carrying out vectorization, generating raster data serving as topographic data, wherein the raster data needs to use the same precision for ensuring the correctness, and the smaller the resolution of the raster is, the higher the simulation precision is;
the software implementation of the device mainly comprises three functions of forest fire measurement, tree measurement and environmental information measurement, and specifically comprises the following steps:
forest fire determination: the forest fire danger is observed remotely by using a monocular telescope, the height and the width of the forest fire can be measured by observing at different positions by using a mobile phone positioning system, a direction sensor and mobile phone software independently developed based on 3DGIS, and forest fire area plotting and uploading are performed on a map. The forest fire department can make decisions and reactions for putting out forest fire in time;
tree measurement and determination: selecting a representative area in a forest for micro-plot planning, selecting an ideal distance as the radius of a circular plot like the circular plot, performing per-tree scale detection in the plot, recording tree species, measuring the breast height and the tree height of the tree, and automatically calculating the stand density, stand accumulation, biomass and carbon reserve of the whole stand by software according to the plot area and the tree information in the plot. The growth condition and growth speed of the forest can be monitored through repeated measurement in successive years, and the quality and effect of forest management and management are improved and promoted;
measuring forest fire by environmental information: fixing the equipment and the sensor on a vehicle, setting a time interval, and starting environment information measurement; the software will periodically obtain the position information and weather information (wind speed, wind direction, temperature, humidity, CO)2、PM2.5、CH4Etc.) and records and saves this information; wherein,the position information is obtained by positioning through a mobile phone, and the meteorological information is obtained through a meteorological determinator (data are measured and uploaded by each sensor); meanwhile, the corresponding forest fire index and the forest fire occurrence probability are calculated according to the information of different positions, the forest fire condition of the passing position can be checked in a map of software, and important information support is provided for forest fire prevention and control; when the forest fire probability of a certain place is found to be high, forest fire departments can conveniently react in advance to restrain forest fire sources.
Claims (1)
1. A forest fire forecasting and fire spreading calculation method is characterized by comprising the following steps: the method can be used for forecasting forest fire, zoning fire grades, simulating and analyzing fire spread and realizing real-time acquisition and three-dimensional display of forecasting and fire spread conditions by applying a smart phone, and comprises the following specific steps:
(1) forest fire forecasting model and measurement: establishing a traditional logistic regression model by taking a fire risk factor as an independent variable participation model, and selecting a certain non-fire point to participate in modeling;
the probability of forest fire occurrence is P, the probability of forest fire non-occurrence is (1-P), and the logistic expression of the forest fire occurrence probability and the fire risk factor is as follows:
in the formula, beta0Is a constant number, beta1，β2，…βnCoefficients for the respective arguments Xi;
in logistic regression, will
The ratio which is called the prediction probability P converts the P into a ratio form, and removes the lower limit of the model;
is the logarithm of the ratio of the prediction probability p, this transformation is called the logit transformation, which removes the lower bound of the model; the original value range of P is 0,1]after the logit transformation, the value range of the logit (P) is (- ∞, + ∞), and the transformation makes the influence of independent variables on dependent variables more obvious and is more suitable for the fitting of a probabilistic prediction model;
(2) fire spreading model and determination: taking a forest class as a unit, measuring and calculating the forest fire spreading direction of the forest class by taking an ignition point as a center, and respectively taking 8 directions of an upward slope, a downward slope, a left flat slope, a right flat slope and a left upward slope, and a left downward slope, a right upward slope and a right downward slope as the forest fire spreading direction of the forest class;
①R＝R0×Ks×exp(0.1783Vcosθ)×exp(3.533(tanφ)1.2) Calculating the spreading speed of forest fire in the upward slope direction of the forest class;
②R＝R0×Ks×exp(0.1783Vcos(θ-45°))×exp{3.533[tan(φ×cos45°)]1.2calculating the spreading speed of forest fire in the right uphill direction;
③R＝R0×Kscalculating the spreading speed of the forest fire in the right flat slope direction by x exp (0.1783Vcos (theta-90 DEG));
④R＝R0×Ks×exp(0.1783Vcos(θ-135°))×exp{-3.533[tan(φ×cos45°)]1.2calculating the spreading speed of the forest fire of the forest class in the right downhill direction;
⑤R＝R0×Ks×exp(0.1783Vcos(180°-θ))×exp(-3.533(tanφ)1.2) Calculating the spreading speed of the forest fire in the down slope direction;
⑥R＝R0×Ks×exp(0.1783Vcos(θ-225°))×exp{-3.533[tan(φ×cos(-45°))]1.2calculating the spreading speed of the forest fire of the forest class in the left downhill direction;
⑦R＝R0×Kscalculating the spreading speed of the forest fire in the left flat slope direction by x exp (0.1783Vcos (theta +90 degrees));
⑧R＝R0×Ks×exp(0.1783Vcos(θ-315°))×exp{3.533[tan(φ×cos(-45°))]1.2calculating the spreading speed of forest fire in the direction of the left uphill slope in the forest class;
wherein R is0Is spreadingInitial velocity of (K)sIs the combustible coefficient, phi is the terrain slope angle, V is the wind speed, and theta is the wind direction angle;
(3) forest fire forecasting and spreading system development and fire risk forecasting system based on mobile phone: based on mobile phone software developed by a 3D map, GNSS, GRY and a weather instrument, basic geographic data and related weather data of the position are obtained by positioning in real time at different positions, so that the prediction of the forest fire danger level of the position is realized; after the forest fire occurs, the fire spreading condition at the position can be obtained according to positioning, so that forest fire departments can know the fire conveniently and make decisions and reactions for putting out the forest fire in time;
the method comprises the steps that a monocular telescope is used for observing the forest fire danger situation in a long distance, a mobile phone positioning system, a direction sensor and mobile phone software independently developed and developed based on 3DGIS are used for observing different positions, the height and the width of the forest fire situation can be measured, and forest fire area plotting and uploading are carried out on a map; the forest fire department can make decisions and reactions for putting out forest fire in time;
tree measurement and determination: selecting a representative area in a forest to carry out micro-plot planning, selecting an ideal distance as the radius of a circular plot like the circular plot, carrying out per-tree scale detection in the plot, recording tree species, measuring the breast height and the tree height of the tree, and automatically calculating the stand density, stand accumulation, biomass and carbon reserve of the whole stand by software according to the plot area and the tree information in the plot; the growth condition and growth speed of the forest can be monitored through repeated measurement in successive years, and the quality and effect of forest management and management are improved and promoted;
measuring forest fire by environmental information: fixing the equipment and the sensor on a vehicle, setting a time interval, and starting environment information measurement; the software acquires position information and weather information (wind speed, wind direction, temperature, humidity, CO2, PM2.5, CH4 and the like) at regular time and records and stores the information; the position information is obtained through mobile phone positioning, and the meteorological information is obtained through a meteorological determinator (data are determined and uploaded by each sensor); meanwhile, the corresponding forest fire index and the forest fire occurrence probability are calculated according to the information of different positions, the forest fire condition of the passing position can be checked in a map of software, and important information support is provided for forest fire prevention and control; when the forest fire probability of a certain place is found to be high, forest fire departments can conveniently react in advance to restrain forest fire sources.
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| CN115661245A (en) * | 2022-10-24 | 2023-01-31 | 东北林业大学 | Large-scale live wire instantaneous positioning method based on unmanned aerial vehicle |
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