CN113421619B - Method for estimating carbon content of catalyst of continuous reforming device - Google Patents
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- 238000000034 method Methods 0.000 title claims abstract description 64
- 239000003054 catalyst Substances 0.000 title claims abstract description 61
- OKTJSMMVPCPJKN-UHFFFAOYSA-N Carbon Chemical compound [C] OKTJSMMVPCPJKN-UHFFFAOYSA-N 0.000 title claims abstract description 45
- 229910052799 carbon Inorganic materials 0.000 title claims abstract description 45
- 238000002407 reforming Methods 0.000 title claims abstract description 31
- 230000008929 regeneration Effects 0.000 claims abstract description 17
- 238000011069 regeneration method Methods 0.000 claims abstract description 17
- 238000004519 manufacturing process Methods 0.000 claims abstract description 15
- 238000003556 assay Methods 0.000 claims description 21
- 230000002159 abnormal effect Effects 0.000 claims description 7
- 239000007789 gas Substances 0.000 claims description 7
- QVGXLLKOCUKJST-UHFFFAOYSA-N atomic oxygen Chemical compound [O] QVGXLLKOCUKJST-UHFFFAOYSA-N 0.000 claims description 6
- 229910052760 oxygen Inorganic materials 0.000 claims description 6
- 239000001301 oxygen Substances 0.000 claims description 6
- 238000012216 screening Methods 0.000 claims description 6
- 238000007670 refining Methods 0.000 claims description 4
- 238000010238 partial least squares regression Methods 0.000 claims description 2
- 238000005516 engineering process Methods 0.000 abstract description 2
- 230000000087 stabilizing effect Effects 0.000 abstract description 2
- 238000004939 coking Methods 0.000 description 5
- 238000006243 chemical reaction Methods 0.000 description 3
- 230000000694 effects Effects 0.000 description 3
- 238000005070 sampling Methods 0.000 description 3
- 238000006057 reforming reaction Methods 0.000 description 2
- 230000009286 beneficial effect Effects 0.000 description 1
- 238000006555 catalytic reaction Methods 0.000 description 1
- 239000007809 chemical reaction catalyst Substances 0.000 description 1
- 238000002485 combustion reaction Methods 0.000 description 1
- 230000002596 correlated effect Effects 0.000 description 1
- 230000001934 delay Effects 0.000 description 1
- 230000008021 deposition Effects 0.000 description 1
- 238000001514 detection method Methods 0.000 description 1
- 238000010586 diagram Methods 0.000 description 1
- 230000002349 favourable effect Effects 0.000 description 1
- 238000012544 monitoring process Methods 0.000 description 1
- 238000005457 optimization Methods 0.000 description 1
- 238000011897 real-time detection Methods 0.000 description 1
- 230000001172 regenerating effect Effects 0.000 description 1
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Abstract
The invention discloses a catalyst carbon content estimation method of a continuous reforming device, which is based on a data driving technology, and according to the knowledge of process experts, parameters with high correlation with the catalyst carbon content are selected from a catalyst regeneration unit in the continuous reforming device, and a catalyst carbon content estimation model is established. Compared with an artificial test or a modeling method based on reforming unit parameters, the method can estimate the carbon content of the catalyst in real time, and obviously improves the instantaneity of sensing the carbon content of the catalyst, thereby helping enterprises to monitor the production process more timely and effectively, and having important value for stabilizing and optimizing continuous reforming production and improving the economic benefit of the enterprises.
Description
Technical Field
The invention relates to the field of production of refining enterprises, in particular to a data-driven modeling method based on production process parameters, and specifically relates to a method for estimating the carbon content of a catalyst of a continuous reforming device.
Background
In the current continuous reforming reaction process, carbon deposition reaction can cause coking of reforming catalyst, and the catalyst activity is reduced. If the fluctuation of the carbon content of the catalyst is large, the normal operation of the reaction is affected, and the normal production of the continuous reforming device is further affected. The real-time detection of the carbon content of the catalyst can provide favorable conditions for the stable and optimized production of the continuous reforming device.
At present, the carbon content of the catalyst can only be manually extracted for offline test every 2-3 days, the time is long, the instantaneity is poor, the change of the carbon content of the catalyst is difficult to reflect in real time, and therefore, the continuous reforming device is difficult to guide to optimize production in time. In recent years, data-driven methods have also been used to predict catalyst carbon content, but have been modeled by process parameters in continuous reforming reaction units. Because the continuous reforming unit reaction catalyst has long cycle period and large time lag, generally delays for several days, the estimated carbon content is still difficult to meet the real-time requirement of enterprises on production optimization.
In summary, there is a need in the refining industry for a method for estimating the carbon content of a catalyst in a continuous reforming device with good real-time performance, so that the method can obtain the change of the carbon content of the catalyst in time, thereby guiding enterprises to optimize production and improving benefits.
Disclosure of Invention
Aiming at the problems, the invention discloses a data-driven modeling technology based on parameters of a catalyst regeneration system, which builds a model according to the acquired parameters of the catalyst regeneration system and predicts the carbon content of the catalyst of a continuous reforming device. The method comprises the following steps:
1. collecting process parameters X epsilon R in historical production of continuous reforming catalyst regeneration system of refining enterprise m×a M represents the number of process parameter samples, and a represents the number of process parameters;
2. collecting historical data Y epsilon R of catalyst carbon content obtained by laboratory manual assay n×1 N represents the number of samples of the manual assay value;
3. screening abnormal samples in the process parameter samples by adopting a 3 sigma rule, regarding the process parameter samples which are not in the (mu-3 sigma, mu+3 sigma) interval as abnormal and deleting the samples, wherein sigma is a sample variance, and mu is a sample mean;
4. aligning the process parameter sample and the manual assay value sample in the time dimension to obtain X t ∈R n×a ：
Wherein Deltat represents the time of lag of the manual assay value sample from the process parameter sample, X t,i Representing the process parameters of the ith manual assay value sample after alignment;
5. screening out process parameters X with strong correlation with carbon content of catalyst by using expert knowledge of process c ∈R n×ac And is also provided withac represents the number of process parameters screened. The total 16 parameters were screened out as: the method comprises the steps of regenerating a superheat zone inlet temperature, a regenerator outlet oxygen content, a regenerated coking zone inlet temperature, a superheat zone inlet gas flow rate and 12 regenerator coking bed temperatures;
6. modeling using partial least squares regression algorithmRepresenting the predicted value of the model on the carbon content of the catalyst, wherein w is a model coefficient;
7. process parameters of a current continuous reforming catalyst regeneration system are collected based on a modelAnd (5) estimating the carbon content of the catalyst in real time.
The beneficial effects are that:
the invention discloses a method for estimating the carbon content of a catalyst of a continuous reforming device, which aims at the problem of real-time monitoring of the carbon content of the catalyst of the continuous reforming device, abandons a method for modeling by using parameters of a continuous reforming unit, adopts a catalyst regeneration system parameter with quicker reaction for modeling instead, and remarkably improves the real-time performance of the carbon content detection of the catalyst. The method can react the change of the carbon content of the catalyst in real time, thereby helping enterprises to monitor the production process more timely and effectively, and having important value for stabilizing and optimizing continuous reforming production and improving the economic benefit of enterprises.
Drawings
FIG. 1 is a schematic flow diagram of a continuous reforming catalyst regeneration system in a process according to an embodiment of the present invention;
FIG. 2 is a flow chart of the method of the present invention;
FIG. 3 shows the effect of model fitting in the method of the present invention.
Detailed Description
The invention will be further described with reference to the accompanying drawings and specific examples, which illustrate the effect of the method on the estimation of the carbon content of the catalyst in the continuous reforming unit. The present embodiment is implemented on the premise of the technical scheme of the present invention, but the protection scope of the present invention is not limited to the following examples.
FIG. 1 is a flow chart of a catalyst regeneration system for a continuous reformer in a refinery. The spent catalyst from the reforming unit is sent to a catalyst regeneration unit, carbon deposit and other technological processes in the catalyst are removed through combustion reaction with oxygen in a regenerator, so that the catalyst is restored to a fresh catalyst state, and then the catalyst is sent back to the reforming unit to participate in catalytic reaction.
Table 1 shows the process parameters X E R for the continuous reformer catalyst regeneration system collected from month 1 to month 11 of the enterprise 2020 m×a In total, m= 46296 samples, a=30 process parameters, including char zone inlet gas flow, char zone inlet temperature, superheater zone inlet temperature, regenerator outlet oxygen content, 20 regenerator char bed temperatures, lock hopper pressure swing zone level 1, lock hopper pressure swing zone level 2, superheater zone inlet gas flow, regeneration cycle gas make-up air flow, regenerator inlet oxygen content, and regenerator char gas outlet temperature.
TABLE 1 catalyst regeneration System parameter histories
Table 2 shows the historical data Y E R of the artificial test values of the catalyst of the continuous reforming device of the enterprise n×1 N=121 samples total. From table 2, it can be known that the sampling period of the manual assay value is as long as 2-3 days, and it is difficult to meet the requirement of enterprise production on real-time performance.
Table 2 manual assay value history data
| Sampling time | Carbon content |
| 2020/01/03 8:00 | 3.58 |
| 2020/01/06 8:00 | 3.27 |
| 2020/01/08 8:00 | 4.24 |
| 2020/01/10 8:00 | 4.05 |
| 2020/01/13 8:00 | 3.47 |
| …… | …… |
In order to solve the problems, the method is used for determining to establish a continuous reforming device catalyst carbon content estimation model, and the specific process is as follows:
1) Screening abnormal samples in the process parameter samples by using a 3 sigma rule, wherein sigma and mu are shown in table 3, and treating the process parameter samples which are not in the (mu-3 sigma, mu+3 sigma) interval as abnormal and deleting the samples;
table 3 process parameter sample mean and variance
2) Aligning the process parameter sample and the manual assay value sample in the time dimension to obtain X t ∈R n×a ：
Wherein Δt represents the time for which the manual assay sample lags the process parameter sample, Δt=30 min in this example;
3) Screening ac=16 process parameters X strongly correlated to catalyst carbon content from 30 regeneration system parameters using expert knowledge of the process c ∈R n×ac And is also provided withComprising the following steps: the inlet temperature of the coking zone, the inlet temperature of the superheating zone, the oxygen content of the outlet of the regenerator, the inlet gas flow rate of the superheating zone and the total of 12 regenerator coking bed temperatures with the numbers of 1, 2, 4, 5, 10, 11, 13, 15, 17, 18, 19 and 20 are respectively;
4) Establishing a catalyst carbon content estimation model by using partial least square regression algorithmThe calculated model coefficients w are:
wherein, the model fitting coefficient R 2 =0.71, fitting results are shown in fig. 3;
5) The model is used for estimating the carbon content of the catalyst of the continuous reforming device and comparing the estimated carbon content with the artificial assay value. Taking a sample of 1 st 6 th 2020 as an example, the manual assay value is 4.37, the model predictive value is 4.41, and the deviation is only 0.04. Other samples were predicted to be similar, taking the 6 month sample as an example, and the results are shown in table 4:
table 46 month catalyst carbon content artificial assay value and model predictive value comparison
| Sampling time of manual assay value | Manual assay value | Model predictive value | Absolute value of deviation |
| 2020/06/018:00 | 4.37 | 4.41 | 0.04 |
| 2020/06/03 8:00 | 4.45 | 4.39 | 0.06 |
| 2020/06/05 8:00 | 4.32 | 4.22 | 0.10 |
| 2020/06/08 8:00 | 4.15 | 4.08 | 0.07 |
| 2020/06/10 8:00 | 4.08 | 4.17 | 0.09 |
| 2020/06/12 8:00 | 4.02 | 4.1 | 0.08 |
| 2020/06/17 8:00 | 3.86 | 4.1 | 0.24 |
| 2020/06/19 8:00 | 3.99 | 3.91 | 0.08 |
| 2020/06/22 8:00 | 4.05 | 4.19 | 0.14 |
| 2020/06/24 8:00 | 4.20 | 4.27 | 0.07 |
| 2020/06/29 8:00 | 4.49 | 4.25 | 0.24 |
As can be seen from Table 4, the deviation between the model predicted value of the carbon content of the catalyst and the artificial assay value is smaller, the requirement that the absolute value of the deviation of the carbon content of an enterprise is smaller than 0.5 is met, the estimated lag time is smaller than 10 minutes, and the actual production requirement of the enterprise is completely met.
Claims (3)
1. A catalyst carbon content estimating method of a continuous reforming device is characterized by collecting process parameters of a catalyst regeneration system, establishing a catalyst carbon content model by using a data driving method, and estimating the catalyst carbon content in real time, and comprises the following steps:
1) Collecting process parameters X epsilon R in historical production of continuous reforming catalyst regeneration system of refining enterprise m×a M represents the number of process parameter samples, and a represents the number of process parameters;
2) Collecting historical data Y epsilon R of catalyst carbon content obtained by laboratory manual assay n×1 N represents the number of samples of the manual assay value;
3) Screening abnormal samples in the process parameter samples by adopting a 3 sigma rule and deleting the abnormal samples;
4) Aligning the process parameter sample and the manual assay value sample in the time dimension to obtain an aligned process parameter X t ∈R n ×a ；
5) Screening out process parameters X with strong correlation with carbon content of catalyst by using expert knowledge of process c ∈R n×ac And is also provided withac represents the number of process parameters to be screened; the total 16 parameters were screened out as: regeneration of the superheat zone inlet temperature, regenerationThe oxygen content at the outlet of the regenerator, the inlet temperature of the regenerated coke-burning zone, the inlet gas flow of the superheating zone and the temperature of the coke-burning beds of the 12 regenerators;
6) Modeling using partial least squares regression algorithm Representing the predicted value of the model on the carbon content of the catalyst, wherein w is a model coefficient; in step 6), X is obtained in step 5) c As->X in (2) c In X c The corresponding manual assay value Y is taken as +.>Solving a model coefficient w according to a fitting target of the model;
7) Process parameters of a current continuous reforming catalyst regeneration system are collected based on a modelAnd (5) estimating the carbon content of the catalyst in real time.
2. The method of claim 1, wherein samples of the process parameters that are not in the (μ -3σ, μ+3σ) interval are considered abnormal and deleted, wherein σ is the sample variance and μ is the sample mean.
3. The method for estimating a carbon content of a catalyst of a continuous reforming unit according to claim 1, wherein the time dimension alignment is performed by using the following formula:
wherein Δt represents the time that the sample of the artificial assay value lags the sample of the process parameter, X t,i Representing the process parameters after alignment of the ith manual assay value sample.
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