CN111859295B - Quantitative risk evaluation method for oil pipeline - Google Patents
Quantitative risk evaluation method for oil pipeline Download PDFInfo
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- CN111859295B CN111859295B CN202010681789.7A CN202010681789A CN111859295B CN 111859295 B CN111859295 B CN 111859295B CN 202010681789 A CN202010681789 A CN 202010681789A CN 111859295 B CN111859295 B CN 111859295B
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Abstract
The application discloses a quantitative analysis method for oil pipeline leakage, which is used for fusing traffic factors and communication factors to embody risks, applying the parameters to a proposed probability model for fitting normal distribution, and using the risk probability fitting model to evaluate the risks of the oil pipeline by mapping the traffic parameters and the traffic parameters with respect to the characterization of the risks of the oil pipeline and combining with the topography factors, so that the risks of the network oil pipeline are evaluated in a distinguishing way, and the rapidness and the accuracy of the risk evaluation are improved.
Description
Technical Field
The invention relates to the field of oil and gas pipeline transmission, in particular to a method for quantitative risk evaluation of an oil pipeline.
Background
The long-distance oil pipeline is a pipeline for transporting crude oil semi-finished oil or finished oil between a production place storage warehouse and a using unit, plays an increasingly important role in national economy construction, and with the rapid development of national economy and the great improvement of the living standard of people, the number of pipeline users and the scale of pipe networks are continuously increased, however, the oil pipeline information management technology of most pipeline enterprises is not improved, and the pipeline can be damaged to different degrees under daily conditions with the long laying time of the pipeline.
In the prior art, various qualitative or quantitative risk evaluation methods exist, however, the various risk evaluation methods are based on scoring by experts, or based on corrosion factors, or based on theft, etc., and are respectively given different weights, and then comprehensive evaluation is performed. In the existing evaluation of oil pipelines, the management mode of the oil pipelines is not evolved along with the development of cities. The existing research methods are considered in a large number, and for practical local companies, large-scale evaluation application analysis factors cannot be suitable for small areas, so that intuitive risk evaluation guidance is urgently needed, and the method is simple and quick. Meanwhile, the existing evaluation method does not consider the characteristics of the oil pipeline, the influence on the pipeline factors caused by the frequency of the human activity range is not well characterized, the traditional detection method is concentrated on the pipeline, the influence on the pipeline caused by the development of economic activities is ignored, the topography factors, the traffic factors and the densely populated factors are not introduced in the evaluation process, the traffic causes the human activity range to be enlarged along with the development of the age, and a certain amount of risks are caused to the paved oil pipeline. For this purpose, the present application proposes a quantitative analysis method, so that the risk factors rapidly located in a certain area are rising or falling, for which there is a quantitative analysis.
Disclosure of Invention
In order to solve the technical problems, the application provides a quantitative risk method for oil pipeline leakage, a traffic passing factor and a communication factor are fused to embody risks, the parameters are applied to a proposed probability model for fitting normal distribution, the risk probability fitting model is used for representing the oil pipeline risks by the mapped traffic parameters and traffic parameters, and the oil pipeline risks are evaluated in a distinguishing manner by combining with a topography factor, so that the rapidness and the accuracy of risk evaluation are improved.
A method of quantitative analysis of oil pipeline leakage, the method comprising:
dividing the area of the oil pipeline into grids to obtain a terrain coefficient a in grids of different areas;
acquiring a traffic coefficient of a traffic vehicle in a specific area and a communication coefficient of the area; the traffic coefficient represents traffic conditions in the pipeline area range, and the communication coefficient of the area represents call access conditions in the pipeline area range;
substituting the traffic coefficient and the communication coefficient of the road in the area range of the oil pipeline into a joint probability function;
wherein X represents a passing coefficient, the value range is [0,30], Y represents a communication coefficient, the value range is [0,18], a represents a terrain coefficient, p represents a risk coefficient of an oil pipeline, and the value range of a is [0,1];
and calculating to obtain risk coefficients of different segmented oil pipelines in different areas.
Preferably, the topographic region coefficients distinguish between urban and non-urban regions.
Preferably, the communication coefficient is normalized by mapping the number of communication tower calls in a selected range of the pipeline installation area.
Preferably, the traffic coefficient is obtained by carrying out normalized mapping pretreatment on the road number, the automobile communication number and the congestion coefficient in the pipeline laying area.
Preferably, the range of the topographic region is between 0.8 and 1 when the topographic region is located in a town area, between 0.1 and 0.4 when the topographic region is located in a non-town area, and between 0.5 and 0.7 when the topographic region is located in a town junction.
Preferably, the access to the value of the terrain area is weighted according to the age of the buried pipeline, and is incremented by a step size of 0.005.
Preferably, the communication coefficient and the traffic coefficient are obtained by normalizing the number of communication connections and the traffic vehicles respectively.
Preferably, the quantitative risk of the oil pipeline is set with different intensity values according to different interval values.
Preferably, the terrain coefficient is weighted by the elevation head height within the paved area.
Drawings
In order to more clearly illustrate the technical solutions of the embodiments of the present invention, the drawings that are needed in the embodiments will be briefly described below, and it is obvious that the drawings in the following description are only some embodiments of the present invention, and other drawings may be obtained according to these drawings without inventive effort for a person skilled in the art.
FIG. 1 is a schematic flow chart of the method of the present application.
Detailed Description
The following description of the embodiments of the present invention will be made clearly and completely with reference to the accompanying drawings, in which it is apparent that the embodiments described are only some embodiments of the present invention, but not all embodiments. All other embodiments, which can be made by those skilled in the art based on the embodiments of the invention without making any inventive effort, are intended to be within the scope of the invention.
Example 1
With the tide of town, for the place which belongs to suburb in the past, the stress around the pipeline is changed due to the change of town planning, the original pipeline is on the ground or the above-ground building exists, the artificial river is excavated and the artificial landscape is manufactured. Multiple factors of human activity, especially capital and farming or unintentional exploration activities, create variations in various topography and topography around the oil pipeline. This series of activities has made it impossible to accurately reflect the actual risk by evaluating the original factors limited only to the risk of the oil pipeline, such as the corrosion factors of the pipeline itself.
According to engineering practice, with popularization of automobiles and mobile tools, traffic and traffic knowledge are analyzed, and in combination with investigation of risks of oil pipelines, the factors of traffic and traffic are considered to be increased in the risk of the oil pipelines, so that in an inherent risk mode, a risk model capable of representing human activity frequency and the risk of the oil pipelines is introduced into evaluation, risks of different areas can be well represented, and parameters of traffic management parameters and people flow density better reflect risk weighting of human activity on the oil pipelines. Meanwhile, weighting is carried out on constructed risk evaluation factors by means of the division of the terrain areas, and a quantitative analysis model is obtained in the fitting process of an actual model.
Firstly, grid division is carried out on a pipeline area, and different indexes can be set according to regional characteristics for grid division. And when the types of the areas are different, acquiring the increasing parameters of the traffic flow or the traffic flow of the pipeline area of the area, and performing evaluation on the oil pipeline of the area according to the increasing parameters of the traffic.
Dividing the area of the oil pipeline into grids to obtain a terrain coefficient a in grids of different areas;
acquiring a traffic coefficient of a traffic vehicle in a specific area and a communication coefficient of the area; the traffic coefficient represents traffic conditions in the pipeline area range, surrounding traffic flows and infrastructure conditions are reflected, and the communication coefficient of the area represents call access conditions in the pipeline area range, namely conditions of people flow activities around the pipeline can be reflected;
substituting the traffic parameters and the communication parameters into a joint probability function;
wherein X represents a passing coefficient, the value range is [0,30], Y represents a communication coefficient, the value range is [0,18], a represents a terrain coefficient, p represents a risk coefficient of an oil pipeline, and the value range of a is [0,1], so that risk coefficients of different segmented oil pipelines in different areas are obtained.
We map the number of calls to the communication coefficients, and can use interval mapping, we take the example of the average day call 500 to 2, and the ratio or interval mapping to the above formula. For traffic parameters, we can also perform the mapping of the probability model by mapping the traffic flow of the car in 400 to 1. Similarly, when in suburban areas, the mapping may be adjusted in a manner that is apparent, or the adjustment may be performed in mountain areas. The proportional relation of the parameters can also be counted according to the parameters of one year or one month to make normalized mapping.
Optionally, after the area is divided, the process of meshing the area may be further refined to perform classification on different pipeline ages, and the pipeline age coefficients are exponentially weighted and superimposed on the area topography factors, where the topography coefficients are weighted by the elevation head height within the paved area.
It is found that when traffic in a certain area is frequent, the induced land subsidence and the corrosion degree of the pipeline are high, because the traffic density is increased, the infrastructure value of the traffic is also high, and in the cathode anti-corrosion mode of the existing pipeline, the stress and the compression are obviously different due to the soil taking of earthwork such as traffic infrastructure and the like, and the effect is obvious in the actual model parameter by adjusting according to the parameter. Meanwhile, as the pipeline installation in China is obviously different in new and old, and the common laying places for oil pipelines are laid in batches, the corrosion coefficient of the pipelines can quantitatively analyze the possible risk of the pipelines by taking the annual corrosion parameters of the pipelines laid in large areas as the basis.
Furthermore, the road distribution density around the traffic pipeline is extracted, weighting processing is carried out on the risk coefficient according to the traffic distribution density coefficient, meanwhile, in order to obtain the communication index, in the existing communication technology, the population activity density of the area can be reflected for the incoming rate of the communication base station, and according to the analysis of historical data, the association relationship exists between the population activity density and the risk of the oil pipeline, the probability density which can be fitted by the population activity density and the risk of the oil pipeline is obtained after analysis, and the normal distribution is met.
We find that the number of incoming calls or connected calls in the number of communication base stations around the pipeline is used as an index parameter, and the population density parameter and the artificial activity are characterized to form a probability model together with traffic, so as to construct a weighting coefficient. The following probability distribution density functions are thus fitted.
According to different regional segments, risk coefficients of each regional segment are obtained, when the parameter of the risk coefficient weighting value of each regional segment is larger than a threshold value, risks exist, and when the parameter is smaller than a certain value, medium risks or/and high risks do not exist.
The range of the topographic region is between 0.8 and 1 when the topographic region is in a town region, between 0.1 and 0.4 when the topographic region is in a non-town region, and between 0.5 and 0.7 when the topographic region is in a town junction.
The range of the value of the topographic area is weighted according to the age of the buried pipeline, and the value of the topographic area is increased by taking 0.005 as the step length when the buried pipeline is buried.
The communication coefficient and the passing coefficient are obtained by normalizing the number of communicated vehicles and passing vehicles respectively.
And the quantitative risk of the oil pipeline is set with different intensity values according to different interval values.
Based on the examples described above, in one embodiment there is also provided a computer device comprising a memory, a processor and a computer program stored on the memory and executable on the processor, wherein the processor implements the video playing method of any of the embodiments described above when executing the program.
Those skilled in the art will appreciate that implementing all or part of the above-described embodiments of the method may be implemented by a computer program for instructing relevant hardware, where the program may be stored on a non-volatile computer readable storage medium, and in an embodiment of the present invention, the program may be stored on a storage medium of a computer system and executed by at least one processor in the computer system to implement the method including the embodiments of the video playing method as described above. The storage medium may be a magnetic disk, an optical disk, a Read-Only Memory (ROM), a random access Memory (Random Access Memory, RAM), or the like.
Accordingly, in one embodiment there is also provided a storage medium having stored thereon a computer program, wherein the program when executed by a processor implements a video playback method as in any of the embodiments described above.
The technical features of the above-described embodiments may be arbitrarily combined, and all possible combinations of the technical features in the above-described embodiments are not described for brevity of description, however, as long as there is no contradiction between the combinations of the technical features, they should be considered as the scope of the description.
The above examples illustrate only a few embodiments of the invention, which are described in detail and are not to be construed as limiting the scope of the invention. It should be noted that it will be apparent to those skilled in the art that several variations and modifications can be made without departing from the spirit of the invention, which are all within the scope of the invention. Accordingly, the scope of protection of the present invention is to be determined by the appended claims.
Claims (3)
1. A method for quantitative analysis of oil pipeline leakage, the method comprising:
dividing the area of the oil pipeline into grids to obtain a terrain coefficient a in grids of different areas;
acquiring a traffic coefficient of a traffic vehicle in a specific area and a communication coefficient of the area; the traffic coefficient represents traffic conditions in the pipeline area range, and the communication coefficient of the area represents call access conditions in the pipeline area range;
substituting the traffic coefficient and the communication coefficient in the range of the oil pipeline area into a joint probability function;
wherein X represents a passing coefficient, the value range is [0,30], Y represents a communication coefficient, the value range is [0,18], a represents a topography coefficient, the value range of a is [0,1], and p represents a risk coefficient of an oil pipeline;
calculating to obtain risk coefficients of different segmented oil pipelines in different areas;
the communication coefficient is obtained by carrying out normalized mapping processing according to the call number of the communication tower base stations in a selected range in the pipeline laying area;
the traffic coefficient is obtained by carrying out normalized mapping pretreatment on the road number, the automobile communication quantity and the congestion coefficient in the pipeline laying area;
the range of the topographic region is a value between 0.8 and 1 when the topographic region is positioned in the town region, a value between 0.1 and 0.4 when the topographic region is positioned in the non-town region, and a value between 0.5 and 0.7 when the topographic region is positioned in the town junction; the range of the topographic coefficient value is weighted according to the age of the buried pipeline, and the step size is increased by 0.005; the communication coefficient and the passing coefficient are obtained by carrying out normalization processing on the number of communicated vehicles and the passing vehicles by adopting a piecewise function method.
2. The method of claim 1 wherein the terrain coefficients are weighted by elevation head heights within the paved area.
3. A computer storage medium, characterized in that it has stored thereon a computer program for execution by a processor for performing the method of claim 1 or 2.
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