Disclosure of Invention
The invention provides a decision-making method and a decision-making system for operation of a smoke furnace on a rainmaking and snowing ground, which are used for solving the problems of secondary atmospheric pollution and the like caused by AgI catalytic smoke agents descending due to the fact that an experience method is generally adopted when the smoke furnace is operated on the rainmaking and snowing ground at present.
In order to solve the problems, the invention discloses a smoke furnace operation decision method for a ground with artificially increased rain and snow, which comprises the following steps:
acquiring a ground weather potential field, radar vertical integral liquid water content of a precipitation cloud system, and a moving direction and a moving speed of radar precipitation echoes;
determining the time length for the radar precipitation echo to move to the ground smoke-fired furnace operating point according to the moving direction and the moving speed of the radar precipitation echo;
when the ground weather potential field is a ground radial-closure rising circulation current potential field, the radar vertical integral liquid water content of the precipitation cloud system is more than or equal to 1kg/m2And when the time length is more than or equal to 24 minutes and less than or equal to 36 minutes, carrying out artificial rain and snow increasing catalysis operation on the precipitation cloud system at the ground smoke burning furnace operation point.
In an optional implementation manner, the step of acquiring the moving direction and the moving speed of the radar precipitation echo includes:
acquiring a radar echo intensity map of the precipitation cloud system once every 6 minutes;
and determining the moving direction and the moving speed of the radar precipitation echo by adopting an extrapolation method according to the radar echo intensity graph once every 6 minutes.
In an optional implementation manner, the ground weather potential field is a southwest wind field or a southeast wind field before the cold front crosses the border.
In an optional implementation manner, the step of determining, according to the moving direction and the moving speed of the radar precipitation echo, a duration of the radar precipitation echo moving to the ground smoke-fired furnace operating point includes:
when the ground smoke-burning furnace operation point is located in the moving direction of the radar precipitation echo, acquiring the horizontal distance between the ground smoke-burning furnace operation point and the front edge of the radar precipitation echo;
and dividing the horizontal distance by the moving speed of the radar precipitation echo to obtain the duration.
In order to solve the problems, the invention also discloses a smoke furnace operation decision system for the artificial rain and snow increasing ground, which comprises:
the system comprises an acquisition module, a detection module and a control module, wherein the acquisition module is configured to acquire a ground weather potential field, radar vertical integral liquid water content of a precipitation cloud system, and a moving direction and a moving speed of radar precipitation echoes;
the determining module is configured to determine the time length of the radar precipitation echo moving to the ground smoke-burning furnace operating point according to the moving direction and the moving speed of the radar precipitation echo;
an operation module configured to determine that the radar vertical integral liquid water content of the precipitation cloud system is greater than or equal to 1kg/m when the ground weather potential field is a ground convergent rising circulation potential field2And when the time length is more than or equal to 24 minutes and less than or equal to 36 minutes, carrying out artificial rain and snow increasing catalysis operation on the precipitation cloud system at the ground smoke burning furnace operation point.
In an optional implementation manner, the obtaining module is specifically configured to:
acquiring a radar echo intensity map of the precipitation cloud system once every 6 minutes;
and determining the moving direction and the moving speed of the radar precipitation echo by adopting an extrapolation method according to the radar echo intensity graph once every 6 minutes.
In an optional implementation manner, the ground weather potential field is a southwest wind field or a southeast wind field before the cold front crosses the border.
In an optional implementation, the determining module is specifically configured to:
when the ground smoke-burning furnace operation point is located in the moving direction of the radar precipitation echo, acquiring the horizontal distance between the ground smoke-burning furnace operation point and the front edge of the radar precipitation echo;
and dividing the horizontal distance by the moving speed of the radar precipitation echo to obtain the duration.
Compared with the prior art, the invention has the following advantages:
according to the technical scheme, a main tool Doppler weather radar for artificially influencing weather operation command is adopted, real-time monitoring is carried out on development and evolution of precipitation echoes, comprehensive analysis such as AgI smoke agent diffusion simulation and vertical wind field reanalysis data is carried out by combining a ground weather potential field, a wind profile radar and an ADMS model, a decision-making method for operation of the smoke-fired furnace on the artificial rain and snow ground is researched and established, the method is utilized to enable selection of operation time of the smoke-fired furnace on the artificial rain and snow ground to be more objective, scientific, simple and feasible, and the problems of smoke agent downlink secondary pollution, smoke bomb loss waste and the like caused by blind selection of the operation time are avoided.
Detailed Description
In order to make the aforementioned objects, features and advantages of the present invention comprehensible, embodiments accompanied with figures are described in detail below.
Most of northern China and most of China in autumn, winter and spring are cold cloud precipitation. For cold cloud precipitation, there is usually enough liquid water in the natural cloud, but there is no sufficient precipitation due to the lack of natural ice nuclei (particles or nuclei forming water droplets), so that the cloud water in the air is partially lost with the cloud. The artificial rain and snow increasing is to spread proper amount of catalyst in natural falling water cloud under certain condition to replenish the ice nucleus number in cloud and thus to reach the aim of increasing ground rainfall.
The artificial rain and snow increasing ground smoke-burning furnace (as shown in figure 1) is generally arranged on a hillside, AgI catalytic smoke agents are conveyed into a precipitation cloud under the action of terrain power lifting and a weather system wind field, ice nuclei in the cloud are supplemented through nucleation, and ground precipitation is increased.
The inventor analyzes the ground weather map (once every three hours) of 13 rainfall weather processes in the spring of almost three years, autumn, winter and spring, and finds that the ground weather situation field for generating rainfall is mostly in the southwest wind field or the southeast wind field before the cold front crosses the border (accounting for 87.6%), and as shown in fig. 2, the ground radiation rising circulation situation wind field is favorable for the rain and snow increasing operation of the ground smoke-burning furnace.
Meanwhile, the vertical wind speed of the wind profile radar of 13 precipitation cases in half-year continuous winter and the reanalysis data (resolution is 1 degree multiplied by 1 degree) of the vertical speed wind field during precipitation provided by the NCEP/NCAR are respectively counted and analyzed, so that the consistent result that the vertical rising speed values of the bottom layer (below 1000 meters) before precipitation and during initial precipitation are not large (between 0.1m/s and 0.5 m/s) is obtained, and the influence factor of the vertical rising speed of the atmosphere on the operation time selection is not large.
In addition, the maximum concentration value of the AgI catalyst diffusion at different times is simulated by adopting ADMS numerical values through different horizontal velocities under the condition of the same catalyst amount and vertical velocity, and a table 1 is obtained, so that a meaningful conclusion is obtained for determining the operation time: the horizontal diffusion area of the AgI of the catalyst is in inverse proportion relation with time, and the horizontal diffusion concentration of the AgI in 1 hour is closer to the proper amount of catalyst spreading standard, so that the aim of fully developing cloud water resources in the air can be fulfilled.
TABLE 1 maximum concentration values of AgI catalysts diffused at different times and different wind speeds
This application adopts the moving to of new generation Doppler weather radar real-time supervision rainfall echo to move fast and development change, combines comprehensive analysis such as ADMS numerical simulation test result and ground weather shape field, researches and has established a artifical rain and snow ground smoke stove operation decision-making method, refers to fig. 3, and this method specifically can include:
step 301: and acquiring the radar vertical integral liquid water content of the ground weather potential field and the precipitation cloud system, and the moving direction and the moving speed of radar precipitation echoes.
In an alternative implementation, a radar echo intensity map of the precipitation cloud system is obtained once every 6 minutes; and then determining the moving direction and the moving speed of the radar precipitation echo by adopting an extrapolation method according to the radar echo intensity graph once every 6 minutes.
Step 302: and determining the time length for the radar precipitation echo to move to the ground smoke-fired furnace operating point according to the moving direction and the moving speed of the radar precipitation echo.
In an optional implementation manner, when the ground smoke-burning furnace operation point is located in the moving direction of the radar precipitation echo, the horizontal distance between the ground smoke-burning furnace operation point and the front edge of the radar precipitation echo is obtained; and dividing the horizontal distance by the moving speed of the radar precipitation echo to obtain the time length for the radar precipitation echo to move to the ground smoke-fired furnace operating point.
Step 303: when the ground weather potential field is a ground radial-closure rising circulation current potential field, the radar vertical integral liquid water content of the precipitation cloud system is more than or equal to 1kg/m2And when the time length is more than or equal to 24 minutes and less than or equal to 36 minutes, the ground smoke burning furnace operation point carries out artificial rain and snow increasing catalysis operation on the precipitation cloud system.
Because the atmosphere can bring the catalytic smoke agent into the cloud under the condition of ascending movement, the ascending movement is the key and the premise of scientific operation of the ground smoke furnace. Aiming at precipitation cloud systems with artificial precipitation and snow increasing operation potential, such as precipitation cloud systems under the condition of circulation type potential wind field which is favorable for precipitation radial rising in ground weather potential fieldThe radar vertical integral liquid water content of the precipitation cloud system is more than or equal to 1kg/m2Firstly, determining the moving speed of the radar precipitation echo (namely, the landing echo on the radar intensity echo map) by adopting an extrapolation method according to the radar echo intensity map once every 6 minutes, and further calculating the time length for the radar precipitation echo to move to the ground smoke-fired furnace operating point; when the time is between 24 and 36 minutes, the ground smoke furnace operating point can start to operate, namely the optimal operating time for artificially increasing the rain and the snow is implemented for the ground smoke furnace operating point.
Specifically, the ground weather situational field may be a southwestern wind farm or a southeast wind farm before the cold front crosses the border.
Referring to fig. 4, the area surrounded by the black line at one end of the arrow is a radar precipitation echo area; the moving direction of the precipitation echo is the northeast direction, as shown by an arrow, the Jinzhou 1 operation point is located in the moving direction and is located at a distance of 26km downstream of the strong precipitation echo, the moving speed of the precipitation echo is about 14m/s, the time length of the precipitation echo moving to the operation point is calculated to be about 30.95 minutes, and when the ground weather shape potential field and the radar vertical integral liquid water content also meet the conditions, the ground smoke-fired furnace Jinzhou 1 operation point can implement artificial rain and snow increasing catalysis operation on the precipitation cloud system.
The conditions for effective operation of a ground-based flue-gas furnace require not only favorable operating opportunities, but also scientific determination of the amount of catalyst. The catalyst amount determination method can be obtained by adopting the existing technical method, for example, in an optional implementation mode, the catalyst amount can be comprehensively determined according to the real-time observed concentration value of PM2.5 near the operation point of the ground smoke-burning furnace, the horizontal wind speed 10m higher from the ground and the like; then, the smoke agent combusted by the ground smoke combustion furnace is used for scattering AgI catalyst in proper amount, and the artificial rain and snow increasing catalysis operation is carried out on the precipitation cloud system.
For example, when PM2.5 is less than 75 μ g/m3When the horizontal wind speed is more than or equal to 2m/s and less than or equal to 5m/s, the amount of the catalyst for artificially increasing rain and snow of the ground smoke furnace can be determined to be 90g or 120 g;
when PM2.5 is less than 75 mu g/m3When the horizontal wind speed is greater than or equal to 6m/s and less than or equal to 10m/s, the ground can be determinedThe amount of the catalyst for artificially increasing rain and snow in the smoke-burning furnace is 110g or 160 g;
when PM2.5 is greater than or equal to 75 mu g/m3And is less than or equal to 93 mu g/m3When the horizontal wind speed is greater than or equal to 2m/s and less than or equal to 5m/s, the amount of the artificial rain and snow increasing catalyst of the ground smoke furnace can be determined to be 40g or 80 g.
When the concentration PM2.5 of the fine particulate matters on the near-ground surface of the atmosphere is more than or equal to 94 mu g/m3In this case, the number of ice nuclei in the water cloud may reach the number of ice nuclei that are sufficiently precipitated, and the number of ice nuclei may even be excessive to reduce rain, so careful work should be performed.
In practical application, in spring of autumn, winter and winter, when a rainfall weather process (more than or equal to 5 mm) occurs in the urban weather station forecast of 24 hours, the urban figure command center firstly preliminarily judges whether the rainfall cloud system in the weather process has the potential of artificial precipitation and snow according to forecast products such as the content of liquid water in cloud, the number of ice cores and the like issued by the national figure center.
And then, tracking and monitoring the development change of the radar echo in real time through a business command platform of a city shadow command center. When the radar echo moves into an operation point, combining and analyzing the latest ground weather shape potential field and the wind profile radar vertical wind field, and moving to a moving speed according to the radar precipitation echo, and judging the time when the front edge of the precipitation echo in the development stage reaches the operation point of the ground smoke-burning furnace, if the front edge of the precipitation echo and the operation point of the ground smoke-burning furnace are separated by a horizontal distance of about half an hour, the best time for implementing the rain and snow increasing operation for the operation point of the ground smoke-burning furnace is provided.
The urban shadow command center can combine radar rainfall echo and radar vertical integral liquid water content (more than or equal to 1 kg/m) according to a PM2.5 real-time observation value near the ground smoke-fired furnace operation point and a horizontal wind speed at a height of 10m of a nearby observation station2) And comprehensively analyzing, determining a specific implementation scheme of the artificial rain and snow increasing operation of the operation point, and commanding the operation in real time.
The operation of increasing rain and snow is carried out by adopting a ground smoke-fired furnace, and the scheme operation is usually carried out only once before the precipitation in the process, because the catalyst is not suitable to be sent into the cloud under the action of wet settlement after the precipitation appears.
Another embodiment of the present application further provides a smoke furnace operation decision system for a snowfield with artificial precipitation, and referring to fig. 5, the system may include:
the acquiring module 501 is configured to acquire a ground weather potential field, radar vertical integral liquid water content of a precipitation cloud system, and a moving direction and a moving speed of radar precipitation echoes;
a determining module 502 configured to determine, according to the moving direction and the moving speed of the radar precipitation echo, a time length for the radar precipitation echo to move to a ground smoke-burning furnace operating point;
an operation module 503 configured to determine that the radar vertical integral liquid water content of the precipitation cloud system is greater than or equal to 1kg/m when the ground weather potential field is a ground convergent rising circulation potential wind field2And when the duration is more than or equal to 24 minutes and less than or equal to 36 minutes, the ground smoke-burning furnace operation point can carry out artificial rain and snow increasing catalysis operation on the precipitation cloud system.
In an optional implementation manner, the obtaining module 501 is specifically configured to:
acquiring a radar echo intensity map of the precipitation cloud system once every 6 minutes;
and determining the moving direction and the moving speed of the radar precipitation echo by adopting an extrapolation method according to the radar echo intensity graph once every 6 minutes.
In an optional implementation manner, the ground weather potential field is a southwest wind field or a southeast wind field before the cold front crosses the border.
In an alternative implementation, the determining module 502 is specifically configured to:
when the ground smoke-burning furnace operation point is located in the moving direction of the radar precipitation echo, acquiring the horizontal distance between the ground smoke-burning furnace operation point and the front edge of the radar precipitation echo;
and dividing the horizontal distance by the moving speed of the radar precipitation echo to obtain the duration.
In an alternative implementation, the job module 503 is specifically configured to:
acquiring a PM2.5 concentration value near the ground smoke-burning furnace operating point and a horizontal wind speed at a height of 10m away from the ground;
determining the amount of the implemented catalyst according to the PM2.5 concentration value, the horizontal wind speed and the like;
and at the ground smoke furnace operation point, carrying out artificial rain and snow increasing catalysis operation on the precipitation cloud system by adopting the catalyst amount.
The decision making system for the operation of the smoke furnace on the artificial rain and snow increasing ground can realize the processes and effects in the method embodiment shown in fig. 3, and is not described herein again to avoid repetition.
The embodiments in the present specification are described in a progressive manner, each embodiment focuses on differences from other embodiments, and the same and similar parts among the embodiments are referred to each other.
Finally, it should also be noted that, herein, relational terms such as first and second, and the like may be used solely to distinguish one entity or action from another entity or action without necessarily requiring or implying any actual such relationship or order between such entities or actions. Also, the terms "comprises," "comprising," or any other variation thereof, are intended to cover a non-exclusive inclusion, such that a process, method, article, or apparatus that comprises a list of elements does not include only those elements but may include other elements not expressly listed or inherent to such process, method, article, or apparatus. Without further limitation, an element defined by the phrase "comprising an … …" does not exclude the presence of other like elements in a process, method, article, or apparatus that comprises the element.
The above detailed description is provided for the operation decision method and system of the smoke furnace on the artificial rain and snow increasing ground, and the specific examples are applied in the text to explain the principle and the implementation mode of the invention, and the description of the above examples is only used to help understand the method and the core idea of the invention; meanwhile, for a person skilled in the art, according to the idea of the present invention, there may be variations in the specific embodiments and the application scope, and in summary, the content of the present specification should not be construed as a limitation to the present invention.