CN110706456A - Rapid early warning system for debris flow - Google Patents

Rapid early warning system for debris flow Download PDF

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Publication number
CN110706456A
CN110706456A CN201910996644.3A CN201910996644A CN110706456A CN 110706456 A CN110706456 A CN 110706456A CN 201910996644 A CN201910996644 A CN 201910996644A CN 110706456 A CN110706456 A CN 110706456A
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China
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rainfall
data
debris flow
early warning
time
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张少杰
胡凯衡
乔贺辙
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Institute of Mountain Hazards and Environment IMHE of CAS
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Institute of Mountain Hazards and Environment IMHE of CAS
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Priority to CN201910996644.3A priority Critical patent/CN110706456A/en
Publication of CN110706456A publication Critical patent/CN110706456A/en
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    • GPHYSICS
    • G08SIGNALLING
    • G08BSIGNALLING OR CALLING SYSTEMS; ORDER TELEGRAPHS; ALARM SYSTEMS
    • G08B21/00Alarms responsive to a single specified undesired or abnormal operating condition and not elsewhere provided for
    • G08B21/02Alarms for ensuring the safety of persons
    • G08B21/10Alarms for ensuring the safety of persons responsive to calamitous events, e.g. tornados or earthquakes
    • GPHYSICS
    • G08SIGNALLING
    • G08BSIGNALLING OR CALLING SYSTEMS; ORDER TELEGRAPHS; ALARM SYSTEMS
    • G08B21/00Alarms responsive to a single specified undesired or abnormal operating condition and not elsewhere provided for
    • G08B21/18Status alarms
    • G08B21/182Level alarms, e.g. alarms responsive to variables exceeding a threshold
    • GPHYSICS
    • G08SIGNALLING
    • G08BSIGNALLING OR CALLING SYSTEMS; ORDER TELEGRAPHS; ALARM SYSTEMS
    • G08B31/00Predictive alarm systems characterised by extrapolation or other computation using updated historic data
    • HELECTRICITY
    • H04ELECTRIC COMMUNICATION TECHNIQUE
    • H04WWIRELESS COMMUNICATION NETWORKS
    • H04W4/00Services specially adapted for wireless communication networks; Facilities therefor
    • H04W4/12Messaging; Mailboxes; Announcements
    • H04W4/14Short messaging services, e.g. short message services [SMS] or unstructured supplementary service data [USSD]
    • HELECTRICITY
    • H04ELECTRIC COMMUNICATION TECHNIQUE
    • H04WWIRELESS COMMUNICATION NETWORKS
    • H04W4/00Services specially adapted for wireless communication networks; Facilities therefor
    • H04W4/30Services specially adapted for particular environments, situations or purposes
    • H04W4/38Services specially adapted for particular environments, situations or purposes for collecting sensor information
    • HELECTRICITY
    • H04ELECTRIC COMMUNICATION TECHNIQUE
    • H04WWIRELESS COMMUNICATION NETWORKS
    • H04W4/00Services specially adapted for wireless communication networks; Facilities therefor
    • H04W4/90Services for handling of emergency or hazardous situations, e.g. earthquake and tsunami warning systems [ETWS]

Abstract

A debris flow rapid early warning system, comprising: the rainfall acquisition unit is used for acquiring rainfall data in real time; the server data center receives the rainfall data from the rainfall acquisition unit; the server acquires rainfall data from the server data center in a serial port transparent transmission mode, judges whether rainfall in the field possibly induces debris flow disasters according to the rainfall data, and informs related personnel in a short message pushing mode; and the client is in communication connection with the server data center in a timing query mode and is used for allowing a user to check historical rainfall information and rainfall I-D curves corresponding to current rainfall, judging the easiness of debris flow at the equipment deployment site according to historical early warning information and issuing the early warning information. The method judges whether the rainfall in the field possibly induces the occurrence of debris flow disasters according to the rainfall parameters, and informs related personnel to take corresponding disaster avoidance measures according to the early warning level of the system in a short message pushing mode.

Description

Rapid early warning system for debris flow
Technical Field
The invention relates to the technical field of debris flow early warning, in particular to a debris flow rapid early warning system.
Background
The debris flow monitoring and early warning method and the monitoring equipment matched with the method are various in types. However, in the environment of a complex mountain area, the monitoring devices all face the problem of high maintenance cost, and the complex monitoring devices are unreasonable and unrealistic in the environment of the complex mountain area debris flow monitoring. Therefore, there is a need to develop a simplified debris flow warning device.
Rainfall is an external factor that stimulates the mud-rock flow. Numerous scholars at home and abroad analyze the debris flow events and the corresponding precipitation data thereof, construct a debris flow early warning threshold value based on precipitation parameters or a threshold value curve of rainfall combination parameters, monitor rainfall in real time by means of rainfall data of a rain gauge, compare the magnitude relation between the monitored rainfall and the constructed threshold value in real time through a background system, and judge whether debris flow occurs. The maintenance cost of the rain gauge is lower than that of other sensors such as videos, mud level gauges, soil water content and pore water pressure, and the rain gauge is not easily damaged by the external environment, so that the rain gauge belongs to simplified debris flow early warning equipment. In addition, the rain gauge only compares the live rainfall with the rainfall parameter threshold value without complex nonlinear numerical calculation, so that the rapid early warning of the debris flow can be realized by means of the simple device.
However, the current debris flow statistical early warning mode based on the rain gauge has the following disadvantages:
(1) the false alarm rate of the early warning result issued by the rainfall meter according to the rainfall threshold value of the debris flow constructed by the statistical mode is high, and the reliability is low;
(2) the debris flow rainfall threshold value constructed based on the statistical mode needs to depend on a large amount of debris flow and rainfall observation data, and the observation data is deficient in some debris flows, so that the problem of observation data reliability exists, and the reliability of the constructed threshold value is influenced;
(3) the debris flow early warning background algorithm based on the rain gauge lacks definition of rainfall field, and influence of early rainfall on debris flow cannot be considered.
In order to solve the two defects of (1) and (2) in the rapid early warning equipment based on the rainfall station, the Chinese patent application 201810747570.5 filed by the applicant in 2018, 7, month and 10 discloses a debris flow I-D threshold curve construction method based on a debris flow formation mechanism.
How to seek an application export based on a threshold value curve disclosed in the submitted Chinese patent application 201810747570.5 to solve the defect of (3) in the rapid early warning equipment based on the rainfall station and achieve the purpose of rapid and automatic debris flow early warning is the problem to be solved by the patent.
Disclosure of Invention
The invention provides a debris flow rapid early warning system to solve at least one technical problem.
To solve the above problems, as an aspect of the present invention, there is provided a debris flow rapid warning system, including: the rainfall acquisition unit is used for acquiring rainfall data in real time; the server data center receives the rainfall data from the rainfall acquisition unit in a wireless mode; the server side acquires rainfall data from the server data center in a serial port communication mode, judges whether the rainfall of the rain field is likely to induce debris flow or not according to the rainfall data, and informs related personnel to take corresponding disaster avoidance measures according to the early warning level of the system in a short message pushing mode; and the client is in communication connection with the server data center in a timing query mode and is used for allowing a user to check historical rainfall information and rainfall I-D curves corresponding to current rainfall, judging the easiness of debris flow at the equipment deployment site according to the historical early warning information and issuing the early warning information.
Preferably, the rainfall collecting unit includes: the rainfall sensor is used for collecting rainfall data in real time; the microprocessor module is connected with the rainfall sensor and used for reading the rainfall data from the rainfall sensor according to a preset time interval and clearing the rainfall sensor after reading the rainfall data; the wireless transmission module is connected with the microprocessor module, the microprocessor module pushes the rainfall data to the wireless transmission module after reading the rainfall data, and the wireless transmission module sends the rainfall data to the server data center.
Preferably, the server includes: the serial port communication module is used for monitoring data of a virtual serial port between the server data center and the server data center in a serial port communication mode; the database module is used for storing time, accumulated rainfall in the current period, early-stage influence rainfall, average rainfall intensity, rainfall duration, debris flow early warning information and the like; and the calculation module is used for calculating the accumulated rainfall, the early-stage influence rainfall, the average rainfall intensity, the rainfall duration and the debris flow early warning information according to the data monitored by the serial port communication module, and storing the accumulated rainfall, the early-stage influence rainfall, the average rainfall intensity, the rainfall duration and the debris flow early warning information in the database module.
Preferably, the calculation module calculates by the following formula:
(1) definition of rainfall field: once the return data of the rainfall acquisition unit is greater than 0 and no rainfall exists within 3 hours of pushing forward by taking the time t0 as a reference point, the rainfall process is considered to be started, and if the rainfall data returned by the rainfall acquisition unit is 0 for more than 3 continuous hours, the rainfall process is considered to be ended; and/or
(2) Influence rainfall earlier stage: after the initial time t0 of rainfall in a certain field is determined, calculating the early rainfall; and/or
(3) Duration of rainfall: according to the definition of the rainfall field, the rainfall process starts from t0, then the rainfall acquisition unit detects every minute and returns rainfall data every 10 minutes, and the rainfall data every 10 minutes continuously returned for 3 hours after t0 is 0, the rainfall is considered to be finished, and the rainfall accumulation time in the period is calculated through Di (10/60) i; and/or
(4) Accumulated rainfall: the rainfall data is composed of all rainfall data SumRi which is not 0 in the current rainfall process and the last 18 continuous rainfall data is SumR which is 0, wherein SumRi is the actual accumulated rainfall amount in a certain rainfall process, and SumR which is 0 marks the sign of the completion of the certain rainfall process; and/or
(5) Average rainfall intensity: after the calculation of the real-time accumulated rainfall is finished, calculating the average rainfall intensity at any time in the current rainfall process after t0 according to the conditions that I _ I is [ (Sum) ] and Ri/D _ I; and/or
(6) Debris flow early warning information:
step 1, acquiring actually measured rainfall duration and average rainfall intensity in real time, and calculating as (Di, Ii);
step 2, selecting a debris flow I-D threshold curve combination corresponding to the early rainfall value from a database according to the early rainfall of the rainfall, wherein each threshold curve in the combination corresponds to the density value of the corresponding debris flow;
step 3, respectively substituting the accumulated rainfall duration Di obtained by real-time monitoring into a density value formula of each threshold curve corresponding to the corresponding debris flow, and respectively calculating a critical rainfall intensity array required for reaching the corresponding debris flow density;
step 4, comparing the real-time monitoring rainfall intensity Ii corresponding to the rainfall intensity Di with each value in the critical rainfall intensity array, and arranging the values according to the size to further determine the position of the real-time monitoring rainfall in the critical rainfall intensity;
and 5, judging the danger level of the debris flow under the action of real-time monitoring rainfall according to a predetermined debris flow probability and danger early warning level classification method.
Preferably, the short message contacts pushed by the short messages are set as multiple persons, and the operation records of all the short messages are recorded.
Preferably, the client includes: the key module is used for turning on/off a program and displaying the duration early warning information; historical early warning information used for displaying the historical early warning information and evaluating the easiness of debris flow; the database connection module is used for setting a database server, a user name, a password and the like; the rainfall data module is used for displaying the rainfall data in real time; the rainfall I-D curve is used for drawing the rainfall I-D curve in real time; and the rainfall parameter module is used for displaying rainfall parameters such as duration of rainfall, rainfall intensity and the like in real time.
Preferably, the workflow of the client includes: connecting a database according to the set database parameters; if the connection is successful, inquiring the rainfall information at regular time; calculating rainfall parameters in real time according to the inquired rainfall information; drawing a rainfall I-D curve in real time according to the rainfall parameters, and displaying rainfall information and the rainfall parameters in real time; and carrying out debris flow susceptibility analysis on the monitoring point according to a real-time rainfall I-D curve based on historical accumulated rainfall information, historical rainfall intensity information, historical early-stage influence rainfall, historical rainfall duration and other data statistics of the equipment deployment monitoring point.
Preferably, the workflow of the client further includes: and displaying rainfall information in real time according to the rainfall I-D curve.
Preferably, the server establishes a plurality of threads to respectively realize functions of thread monitoring serial port data, data storage, early warning grade division, early warning information push and the like.
According to the invention, an STM32F4 development board is utilized to combine with an optical rainfall sensor, and a DTU wireless transmission module constructs an embedded system based on a rainfall gauge so as to realize real-time monitoring of rainfall information and calculation of related rainfall parameters. And judging whether the rainfall possibly induces the occurrence of debris flow disasters or not at a server of the system program according to rainfall parameters, and informing related personnel to take corresponding disaster avoidance measures according to the early warning level of the system in a short message pushing mode.
Drawings
FIG. 1 schematically illustrates a system architecture layout;
fig. 2 schematically shows a wireless transmission module work flow diagram;
FIG. 3 schematically illustrates a monitoring system service side page structure diagram;
FIG. 4 schematically illustrates a monitoring system server work flow diagram;
FIG. 5 schematically illustrates a monitoring system client page structure diagram;
FIG. 6 schematically illustrates a monitoring system client workflow diagram;
fig. 7 schematically shows a duration warning information diagram;
FIG. 8 schematically illustrates a mud-rock flow warning results graph;
FIG. 9 is a diagram showing the results of field investigation.
Detailed Description
The following detailed description of embodiments of the invention, but the invention can be practiced in many different ways, as defined and covered by the claims.
Aiming at the defects of the existing debris flow statistic early warning mode based on a rain gauge, the invention provides an embedded system based on an I-D threshold curve, so as to construct an application outlet of the threshold curve disclosed in the invention patent application 201810747570.5, and finally, the debris flow warning method is realized by using the method.
In order to realize monitoring of rainfall, which is a main inducing factor of debris flow, the invention utilizes the STM32F4 development board to combine with the optical rainfall sensor, and the DTU wireless transmission module constructs an embedded system based on a rain gauge so as to realize real-time monitoring of rainfall information and calculation of related rainfall parameters. And judging whether the rainfall possibly induces the occurrence of debris flow disasters or not at a server of the system program according to rainfall parameters, and informing related personnel to take corresponding disaster avoidance measures according to the early warning level of the system in a short message pushing mode.
Fig. 1 shows a general structure of the system, and the debris flow early warning system based on rainfall parameters mainly comprises an optical rainfall sensor module, a microprocessor module, a DTU module, a server data center, a monitoring system server and a system client.
Hardware architecture of embedded system based on rain gauge
1. Microprocessor module
The STM32F4 is a high-performance 32-bit processor based on an ARM cortex M-4 kernel, compared with an STM32F1/F2 based on an M-3 kernel, the STM32F4 has the advantages that a hardware FPU unit and DSP instructions are added, compared with an STM32F3, the main frequency can reach 168MHZ, the STM32F4 has excellent processing performance, wide breakpoint debugging and tracking capabilities, efficient processor kernel systems and memories and an ultra-low power consumption integrated sleep mode.
The system adopts a chip with the model number of STM32F407ZGT6, the chip has 144 pins, 114 of the pins are used for IO, 1024K FLASH and 192KSRAM are integrated on the chip, built-in interfaces of the chip are rich, 6 serial ports, 2 USB and 2 CAN are provided, and data communication is convenient to carry out. The method has the advantages of single-cycle multiplication and hardware division, and provides higher code execution efficiency and good processing speed. The microprocessor has the advantages of high performance, low cost and low power consumption, provides a good hardware basis for the rapid, accurate and stable data transmission and processing of the system, and fully ensures the real-time performance of monitoring and early warning.
The module is the core of an STM32 board and plays a role similar to that of a computer CPU. The main functions in the system are: the program in the chip is utilized to read serial port data at regular time, the serial port is connected with a rain gauge, after the rainfall is read, the microprocessor module clears the rain gauge and pushes the rainfall data to the DTU module. The microprocessor in the system reads the rainfall data once every 10 minutes and clears the rainfall data after the reading is finished.
2. Rainfall sensor module
The rainfall sensor module that this system adopted is WTS series RS-100H optics rainfall sensor, and this sensor adopts 485 communication interface, supports ASC sign indicating number MODBUS agreement, and the probe is through special treatment, through infrared induction record accumulative total rainfall, but the start automatic calibration, difficult by external environment influence, light in weight, small, measurement accuracy is high, and high reliability can normally work under high temperature and high humidity environment.
(1) Initial setting of sensor
The rainfall sensor is connected to a PC serial port through a 485-USB module, and the parameters of the rainfall sensor are set by sending commands to the rainfall sensor through a PC serial port assistant. Reading software setting serial port parameter information by using an XCOM software serial port, opening a serial port connected with the rainfall sensor, sending sensor setting command information, and responding by the rainfall sensor. The serial port sends commands and sensor response information as follows:
inputting: 0XU < CR > < LF >
Sensor response: 0XU, a ═ 0, M ═ P, T ═ 1, C ═ 2, I ═ 0060, B ═ 019200, D ═ 8
Wherein A is the device address; m is a communication mode: automatically reporting when M is equal to A, and manually inquiring when M is equal to P; i is the automatic reporting interval, defaults to 60s, B is the communication baud rate, defaults to 19200, D is the data bit, defaults to 8.
A rainfall acquisition command: 0R0< CR > < LF >
Sensor response: 0R0, Rc 0000.0M
Rainfall clear command: 0XZRU < CR > < LF >
Sensor response 0TX, Rain
Under the default condition, the rainfall value of the sensor is automatically accumulated, and the rainfall value is cleared after the power supply is powered off and the power supply is restarted. When real-time monitoring software is designed, an optical rainfall sensor is set to be in a manual query mode, a development board sends an accumulated rainfall clear instruction to the sensor at regular time, and the sum of accumulated rainfall in different time periods is used as the accumulated rainfall in the total time period.
(2) Sensor access mode
The rainfall sensor of the WTS series is provided with an industry standard half-duplex two-wire RS485 interface which is connected to a COM3 port of a development board through a 485-to-232 module, and the COM3 port is a DB9 interface. And the RS-100H sensor is connected to a development board COM port through a 485-to-232 interface and is connected to the MCU.
The module is mainly used for collecting rainfall data in real time. The most basic raw data is provided for judging the rainfall field and calculating the I and D data of a certain rainfall process. The module is mainly connected with a serial port of an STM32 board, and a microprocessor module of the STM32 board reads rainfall data once at an interval of 10 minutes.
3. Wireless transmission module
The system adopts a ZSDR3411 DTU wireless transmission module, the module adopts an ARM32 core processor, supports automatic analysis and processing of various complex network states, provides an RS232/RS485 serial port, can build a data service center, and can set a virtual serial port in the data center for wireless transmission of data. A server of the system adopts an Aliskian lightweight application server, data center service is started on the server, a virtual serial port is created, an external network domain name and a port are opened to the outside, a monitoring system software server is operated, and serial port communication is achieved. Fig. 2 is a working flow of the DTU wireless transmission module.
The level of the DTU is 232 level, and the DTU cannot be directly connected to the MCU serial port 2(PA2, PA 3). The development board COM2 port is connected through the 232 pin of the DTU, and the DTU is connected to the MCU in a mode of butting against USART2TX and U2 RX, and against USART2TX and U2 RX of the development board P9.
The part is mainly that rainfall data read by an STM32 circuit board is sent to a server through a DTU (data transfer unit), and the data transmission effect is achieved. The part is a medium for connecting the front-end rainfall data and the server. The purpose is to send rainfall data to the server side through the network. And providing a data source for data analysis of the server side.
Second, server design
1. Overall functional design
The system is developed based on a C # window program and is divided into a server and a client. Fig. 3 is a monitoring system server window page structure. The monitoring system server reads serial port data by setting serial port information, calculates rainfall parameters and writes the rainfall parameters into a database table, judges whether the current rainfall can induce the occurrence of debris flow in real time, classifies early warning grades and pushes early warning short messages. The following table shows the functions of the modules of the server side of the monitoring system.
The monitoring system service runs in the server, monitors data of the virtual serial port in a serial port communication mode, processes and analyzes the received data in real time, judges the current rainfall debris flow early warning level, and pushes early warning short messages, and fig. 4 is a general working flow of a monitoring system service end window body program.
2. Database design
The database adopted by the system is SQLServer. The following table is database table information for storing rainfall parameters, in the rainfall basic information table, not only time and accumulated rainfall in the current period are stored, but also rainfall parameter information in the current period is stored, and if the rainfall is influenced in the early period, the duration of rainfall and the early warning level, historical early warning information of an equipment monitoring area is recorded, and the client side of the monitoring system can conveniently check the historical early warning information and draw an A-I-D extension threshold curved surface through the database table of the binding server side to evaluate the easiness of debris flow.
The database table is established in a data center server, the data center receives the wirelessly transmitted data in a serial port communication mode, rainfall parameters are calculated after the serial port buffer information is analyzed, and writing and reading of the database table are achieved through SQL.
3. Multi-threaded development
By utilizing the multithreading technology, a plurality of tasks are carried out simultaneously, so that the real-time performance of the rainfall monitoring system can be improved, and when one task goes wrong, the running of other tasks cannot be influenced. The following table is information for each thread. The server side of the real-time rainfall monitoring system is deployed in a data center server, and in order to meet the requirements of functions of real-time data processing, storage, curve graph display, data parameter display and the like, the basic principle is that the functions of thread monitoring serial port data, data storage, early warning grade division, early warning information pushing and the like are achieved by establishing a plurality of threads, so that the system has high operation efficiency, and the real-time performance of monitoring and early warning is fully guaranteed.
The main flow of the multi-thread programming is as follows:
(1) creating a new thread, and setting parameters of functions to be called by the thread
(2) Setting thread priority
(3) Starting threads
(4) Suspending threads
(5) Proxy agent, proxy delivery
The threads of the program are not mutually independent in operation, and may access shared resources, and the threads accessing the same shared resources must be synchronized and scheduled to avoid resource competition among the threads, thereby causing deadlock among the threads. Resource access between threads is by means of a proxy agent, and in C #, all delegates (delegates) derive the system. C # also provides a plurality of synchronous control objects to solve the access conflict of the shared resources, and can also define the information by users through global variables. The system adopts global variables to schedule and switch threads. The following table is information of global variables.
4. Data processing core algorithm
In the system design construction shown in fig. 1, all core algorithms including early rainfall calculation based on the rainfall meter monitoring data, average rainfall intensity, rainfall duration and comparison calculation with the I-D curve database are completed in the data center of the server.
Constructing an I-D threshold curve of the debris flow: and aiming at a certain debris flow gully, constructing a debris flow I-D threshold curve database aiming at the debris flow gully according to a threshold curve construction method disclosed in the patent application 201810747570.5.
Definition of rainfall field: once the return data of the rainfall station is greater than 0 (and no rainfall exists after 3 hours of forward pushing by taking the time t0 as a reference point), the rainfall process is considered to start; after that, if the rainfall data returned by the rainfall station for more than 3 hours is 0, it is determined that a rainfall process is finished in the algorithm.
Early-stage rainfall calculation: according to the threshold curve disclosed in patent application 201810747570.5, early rainfall is a key factor affecting the formation of debris flow, and there is a large difference in the I-D threshold curve under different early rainfall conditions. Therefore, in the application of monitoring and early warning of debris flow by using a rainfall station, after the initial time t0 of rainfall in a certain field is determined, the early rainfall needs to be calculated according to the formula 1.
Wherein Ar is the early rainfall n days before the debris flow occurs, Ri is the daily rainfall corresponding to the previous n days, and K is the attenuation empirical coefficient. After the early rainfall of any rainfall process is determined, an I-D threshold curve matched with the early rainfall is selected from the established debris flow I-D threshold curve database.
Duration of rainfall at any time: according to the invention, the rainfall process is defined from t0, then the rainfall station detects every minute and returns rainfall data every 10 minutes, and the rainfall data every 10 minutes returned after t0 for 3 hours is 0, then the rainfall is considered to be finished, and the rainfall accumulation time in the period is calculated by the formula (2):
Di=(10/60)*i (2)
di is the continuous accumulated rainfall time in the rainfall process of the site. i is the number of accumulated rainfall data returned every 10 minutes, i is 1,2,3, …, n. The last 18 rainfall data in n must all be zero, which is also the sign of the end of the rainfall process at the site.
Calculating the rainfall intensity of any field: precipitation data was detected every minute and returned every 10 minutes by the rainfall station. According to the invention, the rainfall course begins at t0 (the rainfall at this time is R0), and the cumulative rainfall of the rainfall course consists of all rainfall data (SumRi) different from 0 and the last 18 consecutive rainfall data (SumR ═ 0) of 0 during the current rainfall. Wherein, SumRi is the actual accumulated rainfall amount of a certain rainfall process, and SumR is 0 to mark the sign of the completion of the certain rainfall process. After the calculation of the real-time accumulated rainfall is completed, the average rainfall intensity at any time in the current rainfall process after t0 is calculated, that is, after rainfall data is returned every 10 minutes in a certain rainfall process, the average rainfall intensity in the period is calculated.
Where Ii is the average intensity of rainfall over any period of time during a certain rainfall, starting at t 0.
The early warning method based on the rain gauge comprises the following steps: in a certain rainfall process, the formula (2) and the formula (3) can obtain the actually measured rainfall duration and the average rainfall intensity in real time, and the measured rainfall duration and the average rainfall intensity are calculated as (Di, Ii). After the formula (1) determines the early rainfall of the current rainfall, a series of I-D threshold curves are obtained from the database. According to the threshold curves disclosed in patent application 201810747570.5, each threshold curve corresponds to a density value of the corresponding debris flow. The following can be expressed:
the accumulated rainfall duration Di obtained by real-time monitoring in the formula (2) is respectively substituted into formulas 4.1-4.5, and critical rainfall intensity arrays required for reaching the corresponding debris flow density can be respectively obtained: [ I ] of1.2|Di,I1.5|Di,I1.8|Di,I2.0|Di,I2.3|Di]. The real-time monitored rainfall Ii (obtained by equation 3) corresponding to Di at the moment is added to each value in the critical rainfall intensity arrayComparing the sizes of the mud-rock flow, arranging the 6 values according to the sizes of the mud-rock flow, further determining the position of real-time monitoring rainfall in critical rainfall intensity, and finally judging the danger level (marked by blue, yellow, orange and red) of the mud-rock flow under the action of the real-time monitoring rainfall (namely, under the action of real-time monitoring Ar, Di and Ii) according to the classification method of the probability and danger early warning level disclosed by the invention patent 201210193426.4.
5. Serial port programming
And the server side of the monitoring system monitors the virtual serial port of the data center server by using the C # serial port programming technology, reads the serial port data and analyzes and processes the serial port data. In the window assembly, the main flow of designing serial port monitoring is as follows: (1) establishing serial port configuration information, and setting serial port communication parameter information such as baud rate, stop bit, check bit, data bit and overtime in the window. (2) Adding a serial port component SerialPort as an implicit control, adding a Receive event registered for the serial port below (3) the form designer, and reading data in a buffer area inside an interrupt. (4) And processing and analyzing the read data in real time. (5) When serial port data are read, judging the early warning level of the current rainfall induced debris flow according to rainfall parameter information, and pushing early warning information.
Early warning short message push
The short message pushing platform is an important component of the whole set of debris flow monitoring and early warning system. The short message pushing function can play a role when the network data stability is poor and the response requirement is high. The system provides an early warning short message pushing function. The short message contact persons can be set as a plurality of persons, and operation records are stored for all short message operations, so that the purposes of common supervision and multiple responses are achieved. When the system program judges that the early warning level exists, the rainfall in the area possibly induces the debris flow disaster, the early warning information is pushed to related personnel in real time through the short message pushing platform of the server, and then corresponding disaster avoidance measures are taken, so that the purpose of protecting the life and property safety of people in the area where the debris flow disaster easily occurs is achieved.
The system marks off the debris flow early warning level according to the rainfall parameters and the rainfall I-D curve, automatically generates early warning information by combining an early warning information template, calls an early warning short message interface and pushes early warning short messages. The early warning message template is shown in the following table:
third, client design
1. Overall functional design
The structure of the client system window page is shown in fig. 5, and the client can be used for a user to check historical rainfall information and a rainfall I-D curve corresponding to current rainfall, judge the easiness of debris flow at a device deployment site according to historical early warning information and issue the early warning information. The following table shows information of each module of the monitoring system client.
The monitoring system client can check real-time rainfall data, historical early warning data and a current rainfall I-D curve through binding data source information. Fig. 6 is an overall workflow of a monitoring system client window program.
2. Rainfall information asynchronous update
The rainfall information is that the client of the monitoring system inquires the rainfall information of the server at fixed time by setting a window timer, and realizes asynchronous update of the rainfall data by using fixed-time operation.
3. Drawing component design
The system is based on a CS framework, applies a Chart component to a monitoring and early warning system of a window program, draws a corresponding rainfall I-D curve according to an ID curve library corresponding to rainfall parameters, and marks coordinates of the current rainfall parameters. The drawing component main codes are as follows:
var chart _2 ═ chart2. chartarareas [0 ]; // setup diagram
chart _2.axisx.title ═ rainfall duration D (/ h) "; // X axis heading
chart _2.axisy. title ═ rainfall intensity I/(mm/h) "; // Y-axis heading
// set the vernier
chart_2.CursorX.IsUserEnabled=true;
chart_2.CursorX.AutoScroll=true;
chart_2.CursorX.IsUserSelectionEnabled=true;
chart _2. axisx.scaleview.zoomap ═ true; whether or not the X axis can be scaled
Calculating empirical raininess interval according to real raininess and ID parameters by substituting rainfall duration into formula
chart2.Series.Add("point");
chart2.Series["point"].Color=Color.Red;
chart2.Series["point"].ChartType=SeriesChartType.Point;chart2.Series["point"].Points.AddXY(Math.Log10(rain_time),Math.Log10(rain_sum)/Math.Log10(rain_time));
chart2.series. add ("line" + i); // drawing a straight line graph
chart2.Series["line"+i].ChartType=SeriesChartType.Line;chart2.Series[0].IsVisibleInLegend=false;
chart2.Series["line"+i].Points.AddXY(0,mm_fitting[i,0]*0+mm_fitting[i,1]);
④ historical warning information
Historical early warning information shows the early warning grade and the early warning time that historical monitoring rainfall data corresponds, makes things convenient for the historical accumulative total rainfall information of relevant personnel to equipment deployment monitoring place, historical rainfall information, historical early influence rainfall, historical rainfall duration wait the data to make statistics of, is convenient for carry out the analysis of debris flow ease of occurrence to this monitoring point. Fig. 7 is a historical early warning window page, and the historical early warning page structure is divided into three modules, a time query module, a historical early warning data module and an early warning curve module. The early warning curve is that according to early warning information of rainfall, time is taken as a horizontal axis of a graph, early warning levels are taken as a vertical axis, and the graph is divided into 1,2,3 and 4 which respectively correspond to blue early warning, yellow early warning, orange early warning and red early warning of the early warning levels.
Example (b):
the front-end monitoring hardware equipment of the whole set of system is installed in the upstream branch ditch of the Tong Jiagou in Yunnan Dongchuan.
In No. 7 and No. 9 in 2019, a large rainfall process is experienced in the east-Sichuan of Yunnan, and according to data monitored by a rain gauge, the accumulated rainfall reaches about 45mm in the early morning of No. 9 in 2019 from 1:00 to 3: 00. But the system does not issue a debris flow warning. The root cause that the mud-rock flow is not excited in the heavy rainfall process is that the early rainfall is too low because the real-time monitoring data are substituted into the I-D curve database for analysis in the later period.
The following table shows the average rain intensity and duration of rainfall for the real-time monitoring of procedure No. 7/9. From the table below, the maximum rain intensity during this period of rainfall is about 33 mm. The rainfall lasts for about 2.7 hours. Through the formula (1), the early rainfall of the rainfall process is calculated by the data service center to be about 15 mm.
Time-keeping of rainfall (hours) Intensity of rainfall (mm/h)
1.00 33.94
1.17 30.29
1.34 27.55
1.50 25.29
1.67 23.18
1.84 21.45
2.00 19.97
2.17 18.66
2.34 17.63
2.50 16.73
2.67 15.91
In order to compare the rainfall data in the table above with the database of the threshold I-D curve of the Jiangcou, the data service center in fig. 1 first calculates the early rainfall value of the rainfall process to be 15mm by using the formula 1. The I-D curve database was then searched for an I-D threshold curve matching 15mm and the threshold curve was compared to the data in table 12, as shown in fig. 8.
In FIG. 8, the red point 1 is the measured data in the above table, and the blue line 2 has a density of 2.3g/cm3The I-D threshold curve of (1); the black line 3 has a density of 1.2g/cm3I-D threshold curve of (a).
The density of the water-soil mixture formed in the Jiang's ditch in the precipitation process is less than 1.2g/cm3Events fired in the trench are more prone to high sand-laden currents or floods and do not have the characteristics of debris flow fluids. So the system does not issue the debris flow early warning. The applicant verifies the early warning result in a mode of after-investigation (as shown in fig. 9), and the result of on-site investigation and the result of the on-site investigation areThe early warning results are consistent, the upstream in the channel is mainly torrential flood or high-sand-content water flow, and the moving trace of debris flow does not appear, so that the reliability of the system is proved.
The above description is only a preferred embodiment of the present invention and is not intended to limit the present invention, and various modifications and changes may be made by those skilled in the art. Any modification, equivalent replacement, or improvement made within the spirit and principle of the present invention should be included in the protection scope of the present invention.

Claims (9)

1. A rapid early warning system for debris flow is characterized by comprising:
the rainfall acquisition unit is used for acquiring rainfall data in real time;
the server data center receives the rainfall data from the rainfall acquisition unit in a wireless mode;
the server side acquires rainfall data from the server data center in a serial port communication mode, judges whether the rainfall of the rain field is likely to induce debris flow or not according to the rainfall data, and informs related personnel to take corresponding disaster avoidance measures according to the early warning level of the system in a short message pushing mode;
and the client is in communication connection with the server data center in a timing query mode and is used for allowing a user to check historical rainfall information and rainfall I-D curves corresponding to current rainfall, judging the easiness of debris flow at the equipment deployment site according to the historical early warning information and issuing the early warning information.
2. The rapid debris flow early warning system according to claim 1, wherein the rainfall collecting unit comprises:
the rainfall sensor is used for collecting rainfall data in real time;
the microprocessor module is connected with the rainfall sensor and used for reading the rainfall data from the rainfall sensor according to a preset time interval and clearing the rainfall sensor after reading the rainfall data;
the wireless transmission module is connected with the microprocessor module, the microprocessor module pushes the rainfall data to the wireless transmission module after reading the rainfall data, and the wireless transmission module sends the rainfall data to the server data center.
3. The debris flow rapid early warning system according to claim 1, wherein the server comprises:
the serial port communication module is used for monitoring data of a virtual serial port between the server data center and the server data center in a serial port communication mode;
the database module is used for storing time, accumulated rainfall in the current period, early-stage influence rainfall, average rainfall intensity, rainfall duration, debris flow early warning information and the like;
and the calculation module is used for calculating the accumulated rainfall, the early-stage influence rainfall, the average rainfall intensity, the rainfall duration and the debris flow early warning information according to the data monitored by the serial port communication module, and storing the accumulated rainfall, the early-stage influence rainfall, the average rainfall intensity, the rainfall duration and the debris flow early warning information in the database module.
4. The debris flow rapid warning system according to claim 3, wherein the calculation module calculates by the following formula:
(1) definition of rainfall field: once the return data of the rainfall acquisition unit is greater than 0 and no rainfall exists within 3 hours of pushing forward by taking the time t0 as a reference point, the rainfall process is considered to be started, and if the rainfall data returned by the rainfall acquisition unit is 0 for more than 3 continuous hours, the rainfall process is considered to be ended; and/or
(2) Influence rainfall earlier stage: after determining the starting time t0 of a certain rainfall, the method is based onCalculating early rainfall; and/or
(3) Duration of rainfall: according to the definition of the rainfall field, the rainfall process starts from t0, then the rainfall acquisition unit detects every minute and returns rainfall data every 10 minutes, and the rainfall data every 10 minutes continuously returned for 3 hours after t0 is 0, the rainfall is considered to be finished, and the rainfall accumulation time in the period is calculated through Di (10/60) i; and/or
(4) Accumulated rainfall: the rainfall data is composed of all rainfall data SumRi which is not 0 in the current rainfall process and the last 18 continuous rainfall data is SumR which is 0, wherein SumRi is the actual accumulated rainfall amount in a certain rainfall process, and SumR which is 0 marks the sign of the completion of the certain rainfall process; and/or
(5) Average rainfall intensity: after the calculation of the real-time accumulated rainfall is finished, according toCalculating the average rainfall intensity at any time in the current rainfall process after t 0; and/or
(6) Debris flow early warning information:
step 1, acquiring actually measured rainfall duration and average rainfall intensity in real time, and calculating as (Di, Ii);
step 2, selecting a debris flow I-D threshold curve combination corresponding to the early rainfall value from a database according to the early rainfall of the rainfall, wherein each threshold curve in the combination corresponds to the density value of the corresponding debris flow;
step 3, respectively substituting the accumulated rainfall duration Di obtained by real-time monitoring into a density value formula of each threshold curve corresponding to the corresponding debris flow, and respectively calculating a critical rainfall intensity array required for reaching the corresponding debris flow density;
step 4, comparing the real-time monitoring rainfall intensity Ii corresponding to the rainfall intensity Di with each value in the critical rainfall intensity array, and arranging the values according to the size to further determine the position of the real-time monitoring rainfall in the critical rainfall intensity;
and 5, judging the danger level of the debris flow under the action of real-time monitoring rainfall according to a predetermined debris flow probability and danger early warning level classification method.
5. The debris flow rapid early warning system according to claim 1, wherein the short message contacts pushed by the short messages are set as a plurality of people, and records the operation records of all the short messages.
6. The debris flow rapid warning system according to claim 1, wherein the client comprises:
the key module is used for turning on/off a program and displaying the duration early warning information;
historical early warning information used for displaying the historical early warning information and evaluating the easiness of debris flow;
the database connection module is used for setting a database server, a user name, a password and the like;
the rainfall data module is used for displaying the rainfall data in real time;
the rainfall I-D curve is used for drawing the rainfall I-D curve in real time;
and the rainfall parameter module is used for displaying rainfall parameters such as duration of rainfall, rainfall intensity and the like in real time.
7. The debris flow rapid early warning system according to claim 1, wherein the workflow of the client comprises:
connecting a database according to the set database parameters;
if the connection is successful, inquiring the rainfall information at regular time;
calculating rainfall parameters in real time according to the inquired rainfall information;
drawing a rainfall I-D curve in real time according to the rainfall parameters, and displaying rainfall information and the rainfall parameters in real time;
and carrying out debris flow susceptibility analysis on the monitoring point according to a real-time rainfall I-D curve based on historical accumulated rainfall information, historical rainfall intensity information, historical early-stage influence rainfall, historical rainfall duration and other data statistics of the equipment deployment monitoring point.
8. The debris flow rapid warning system according to claim 7, wherein the workflow of the client further comprises:
and displaying rainfall information in real time according to the rainfall I-D curve.
9. The debris flow rapid early warning system according to claim 1, wherein the server establishes a plurality of threads to respectively realize functions of thread monitoring serial port data, data storage, early warning grade division, early warning information push and the like.
CN201910996644.3A 2019-10-19 2019-10-19 Rapid early warning system for debris flow Pending CN110706456A (en)

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