CN110266001B - Power grid reliability assessment method and system and terminal power supply equipment - Google Patents

Power grid reliability assessment method and system and terminal power supply equipment Download PDF

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Publication number
CN110266001B
CN110266001B CN201910537978.4A CN201910537978A CN110266001B CN 110266001 B CN110266001 B CN 110266001B CN 201910537978 A CN201910537978 A CN 201910537978A CN 110266001 B CN110266001 B CN 110266001B
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power grid
equipment
sub
subregion
reliability
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CN110266001A (en
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岳洋
宋彦军
王东辉
赵冀宁
张云
翟宁
张静玉
常浩
张东坡
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State Grid Corp of China SGCC
Maintenance Branch of State Grid Hebei Electric Power Co Ltd
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State Grid Corp of China SGCC
Maintenance Branch of State Grid Hebei Electric Power Co Ltd
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    • HELECTRICITY
    • H02GENERATION; CONVERSION OR DISTRIBUTION OF ELECTRIC POWER
    • H02JCIRCUIT ARRANGEMENTS OR SYSTEMS FOR SUPPLYING OR DISTRIBUTING ELECTRIC POWER; SYSTEMS FOR STORING ELECTRIC ENERGY
    • H02J3/00Circuit arrangements for ac mains or ac distribution networks

Abstract

The invention provides a method and a system for evaluating reliability of a power grid and terminal power supply equipment, wherein the method comprises the following steps: dividing the power grid model into a plurality of power grid sub-regions according to a preset rule; determining an initial reliability of each of the power grid sub-regions; correcting the initial reliability of each power grid subregion to obtain the independent reliability of each power grid subregion; acquiring the influence degree of each power grid subregion on the power grid; acquiring the fault probability of each regional connecting line and the influence degree of each regional connecting line on the power grid of the preset region; and calculating the target reliability of the power grid of the preset area by utilizing the independent reliability of each power grid subregion, the influence degree of each power grid subregion on the power grid of the preset area, the fault probability of each area connecting line and the influence degree of each area connecting line on the power grid of the preset area. The invention can accurately evaluate the reliability of the power grid.

Description

Power grid reliability assessment method and system and terminal power supply equipment
Technical Field
The invention belongs to the technical field of power grid monitoring, and particularly relates to a power grid reliability assessment method and system and terminal power supply equipment.
Background
The power transmission system plays an important role as a bridge for transmitting electric energy from each power plant to users, and the reliability of the power transmission system greatly affects the reliability of the whole power system.
At present, the evaluation method for the reliability of the power grid is mainly based on reliability statistical analysis, power supply reliability information analysis and the like, and the method mainly focuses on theoretical research, so that the method hardly plays a guiding role on the power grid in practical application, and inaccurate evaluation is caused.
Disclosure of Invention
In view of this, embodiments of the present invention provide a method and a system for evaluating reliability of a power grid, and a terminal power supply device, so as to solve the problem that the current evaluation of the reliability of the power grid is inaccurate.
A first aspect of an embodiment of the present invention provides a method for evaluating reliability of a power grid, including:
dividing the power grid model into a plurality of power grid sub-regions according to a preset rule;
determining the initial reliability of each power grid subregion based on the equipment information of the equipment in the power grid subregion and the line information of each equipment connection line in the power grid subregion; correcting the initial reliability of each power grid subregion to obtain the independent reliability of each power grid subregion;
acquiring the influence degree of each power grid subregion on the power grid; acquiring the fault probability of each regional connecting line and the influence degree of each regional connecting line on the power grid of the preset region;
and calculating the target reliability of the power grid of the preset area by utilizing the independent reliability of each power grid subregion, the influence degree of each power grid subregion on the power grid of the preset area, the fault probability of each area connecting line and the influence degree of each area connecting line on the power grid of the preset area.
A second aspect of an embodiment of the present invention provides a system, including:
the power grid model is a virtual model established according to the power grid of the preset area;
the first calculation module is used for determining the initial reliability of each power grid subregion based on the equipment information of the equipment in the power grid subregion and the line information of each equipment connection line in the power grid subregion; correcting the initial reliability of each power grid subregion to obtain the independent reliability of each power grid subregion;
the first acquisition module is used for acquiring the influence degree of each power grid subregion on the power grid;
the second obtaining module is used for obtaining the fault probability of each zone connecting line and the influence degree of each zone connecting line on the power grid of the preset zone, wherein the zone connecting lines are lines interconnected among the power grid sub-zones;
and the second calculation module is used for calculating the target reliability of the power grid of the preset region by utilizing the independent reliability of each power grid subregion, the influence degree of each power grid subregion on the power grid of the preset region, the fault probability of each region connecting line and the influence degree of each region connecting line on the power grid of the preset region.
A third aspect of the embodiments of the present invention provides a terminal device, including a memory, a processor, and a computer program stored in the memory and executable on the processor, where the processor implements the steps of the power grid reliability assessment method when executing the computer program.
A fourth aspect of embodiments of the present invention provides a computer-readable storage medium storing a computer program which, when executed by a processor, implements the steps of the power grid reliability assessment method as described above.
According to the method, the target reliability of the power grid of the preset area is calculated by utilizing the independent reliability of each power grid sub-area, the influence degree of each power grid sub-area on the power grid of the preset area, the fault probability of each area connecting line and the influence degree of each area connecting line on the power grid of the preset area, and the reliability of the power grid can be accurately evaluated.
Drawings
In order to more clearly illustrate the technical solutions in the embodiments of the present invention, the drawings needed to be used in the embodiments or the prior art descriptions will be briefly described below, and it is obvious that the drawings in the following description are only some embodiments of the present invention, and it is obvious for those skilled in the art to obtain other drawings based on these drawings without inventive exercise.
Fig. 1 is a schematic flow chart of a method for evaluating reliability of a power grid according to an embodiment of the present invention;
FIG. 2 is a schematic block diagram of a system provided by an embodiment of the present invention;
fig. 3 is a schematic diagram of a terminal device according to an embodiment of the present invention.
Detailed Description
In the following description, for purposes of explanation and not limitation, specific details are set forth, such as particular system structures, techniques, etc. in order to provide a thorough understanding of the embodiments of the invention. It will be apparent, however, to one skilled in the art that the present invention may be practiced in other embodiments that depart from these specific details. In other instances, detailed descriptions of well-known systems, devices, circuits, and methods are omitted so as not to obscure the description of the present invention with unnecessary detail.
The terms "comprises" and "comprising," as well as any other variations, in the description and claims of this invention and the drawings described above, are intended to mean "including but not limited to," and are intended to cover non-exclusive inclusions. For example, a process, method or system, article or apparatus that comprises a list of steps or elements is not limited to only those steps or elements listed, but may alternatively include other steps or elements not listed, or inherent to such process, method, article or apparatus. Furthermore, the terms "first," "second," and "third," etc. are used to distinguish between different objects and are not used to describe a particular order.
In order to explain the technical means of the present invention, the following description will be given by way of specific examples.
Example 1:
fig. 1 shows an implementation flowchart of a method for evaluating reliability of a power grid according to an embodiment of the present invention, and for convenience of description, only a part related to the embodiment of the present invention is shown, and the following details are described below:
as shown in fig. 1, a method for evaluating reliability of a power grid provided by an embodiment of the present invention includes:
s101, dividing a power grid model into a plurality of power grid sub-regions according to a preset rule, wherein the power grid model is a virtual model established according to a power grid of a preset region;
s102, determining the initial reliability of each power grid subregion based on the equipment information of the equipment in the power grid subregion and the line information of each equipment connecting line in the power grid subregion; correcting the initial reliability of each power grid subregion to obtain the independent reliability of each power grid subregion;
s103, acquiring the influence degree of each power grid sub-region on the power grid;
s104, acquiring the fault probability of each zone connecting line and the influence degree of each zone connecting line on the power grid of the preset zone, wherein the zone connecting lines are lines interconnected among the sub-zones of the power grid;
and S105, calculating the target reliability of the power grid of the preset area by using the independent reliability of each power grid sub-area, the influence degree of each power grid sub-area on the power grid of the preset area, the fault probability of each area connecting line and the influence degree of each area connecting line on the power grid of the preset area.
In an embodiment of the present invention, before S101, the method further includes:
s1101, establishing a power grid model according to a power grid of a preset area.
In this embodiment, a power grid model is built based on each line in an actual power grid of a preset area and devices connected in the line, the devices may be specific power grid devices of a power supply office or user devices, the user devices do not mark refrigerators, light bulbs and the like, and a specific mark represents all power supply devices in a household (or a unit, or a building, or a cell).
In an embodiment of the present invention, S101 includes:
dividing the power grid model into a plurality of power grid sub-regions based on the geographical positions of the devices in the preset region;
or, selecting a main line from the power grid model, and taking the main line, and the equipment and equipment connection lines which have a subordinate relationship with the main line as power grid sub-regions;
or, the power supply station in the power grid model, and the devices and device connection lines which have subordination relation with the power supply station are used as power grid sub-areas.
In an embodiment of the present invention, the calculation of the initial reliability in S102 includes:
dividing the equipment in the power grid model into user equipment and power grid equipment, wherein the power grid equipment is the equipment in the power grid model except the user equipment;
s201, respectively acquiring a failure function of each power grid device along with time change, a failure function of each power grid device along with environment change and a failure rate of each power grid device at the current moment based on the device type of each power grid device;
s202, calculating the fault probability of the power grid equipment by utilizing the time-varying failure function of the power grid equipment, the environment-varying failure function of the power grid equipment and the current-time fault-free rate of the power grid equipment;
s203, calculating the influence degree of each power grid device on the power grid subregion based on the connection relation between the power grid device and the user device in the power grid subregion;
s204, based on the failure function of a section of sub-circuit with the longest service time in each equipment connecting line changing along with time and the failure function of a short sub-circuit with the longest service time in each equipment connecting line changing along with environment;
s205, calculating the fault probability of each equipment connecting line by using the failure function of the section of the equipment connecting line with the longest service time changing along with time and the failure function of the section of the equipment connecting line with the longest service time changing along with environment;
s206, calculating the influence degree of each equipment connecting line on the power grid subregion based on the position of each equipment connecting line in the power grid subregion;
and S207, obtaining the initial reliability of the power grid sub-region through the fault probability of the power grid equipment, the influence degree of the power grid equipment on the power grid sub-region, the fault probability of the equipment connecting line and the influence degree of the equipment connecting line on the power grid sub-region.
In this embodiment, the time-varying failure function is more likely to fail the longer the time is, and the greater the failure function is, the greater the failure probability is, and the lower the reliability is.
And the larger the failure function is, the higher the failure probability is, and the lower the reliability is.
In this embodiment, before obtaining the failure-free rate of each grid device at the current time, the method further includes:
and acquiring the historical maintenance record of the power grid equipment.
The fault-free rate of each power grid device at the current moment, namely the time between the current moment of the power grid device and the last maintenance, is divided by the mean value of the fault-free working time of the power grid devices. The shorter the current time is from the last maintenance time, the more likely the failure is, and the lower the reliability is.
In this embodiment, the sub-line with the longest service time in the device connection line is, for example, three lines, i.e., a sub-line 1, a sub-line 2, and a sub-line 3, are arranged between the device a and the device B, and the sub-line 2 is the sub-line with the longest service time.
In an embodiment of the present invention, S202 includes:
wherein ljThe fault-free rate of the power grid equipment j at the current moment is shown; t is tsIs the current time; t is tsjThe current time is the last fault time of the power grid equipment j; t is tpjAnd the time average value of the fault-free operation of the power grid equipment j is shown.
In an embodiment of the present invention, S203 includes:
wherein Q isjThe failure probability of the power grid equipment j is obtained; q1j(t) is a failure function of the grid device j over time; q2j(T, S) is a failure function of the power grid equipment j along with the change of the environment; t is time; t is the temperature; s is humidity.
In an embodiment of the present invention, S204 includes:
wherein, CjThe influence degree of the power grid equipment j on the power grid subregion is shown; gjThe fault is a power grid subregion after the fault of the power grid equipment j; fj(Gj) The number of the user equipment affected after the fault of the power grid equipment j in the power grid subregion is determined; and k is the total number of the user equipment in the power grid sub-area.
In an embodiment of the present invention, S205 includes:
Mi=q3i(t)*q4i(T,S);
wherein: miThe failure probability of the equipment connecting line i is obtained; q3i(t) is a time-varying failure function of the equipment connection line i; q4i(T, S) is a failure function of the equipment connecting line i along with the change of the environment; t is time; t is the temperature; s is humidity;
in an embodiment of the present invention, S206 includes:
wherein D isiFor equipment connectionInfluence degree of the line i on the sub-area of the power grid; piThe power grid sub-area is a power grid sub-area after the equipment connecting line i fails; ri(Pi) The number of user equipment affected after the equipment connection line i fails; and k is the total number of the user equipment in the power grid sub-area.
In an embodiment of the present invention, S207 includes:
wherein, betaαThe initial reliability of the sub-area alpha of the power grid is obtained; qj1The failure probability of the power grid equipment j 1; qj2The failure probability of the power grid equipment j 2; qjnThe failure probability of the power grid equipment jn is obtained; n is the total number of the power grid equipment; cj1The influence degree of the power grid equipment j1 on the power grid subregion is; cj2The influence degree of the power grid equipment j2 on the power grid subregion is; cjnThe influence degree of the power grid equipment jn on the power grid subregion is determined; mi1Probability of failure of device connection i 1; mi2Probability of failure of device connection i 2; mimThe failure probability of the equipment connection line im; di1The influence degree of the equipment connection line i1 on the power grid subregion is determined; di2The influence degree of the equipment connection line i2 on the power grid subregion is determined; dimThe degree of influence of the equipment connection line im on the power grid subregion is determined; m is the total number of device connection lines.
In an embodiment of the present invention, the calculation of the independent reliability in S102 includes:
s2201, obtaining the harmonic pollution degree of each user device in the power grid subregion;
s2202, calculating the mean value of the harmonic pollution degrees of the sub-area of the power grid by using the harmonic pollution degree of each user device;
s2203, correcting the initial reliability of the power grid sub-regions by using the average value of the harmonic pollution degree to obtain the independent reliability of each power grid sub-region;
the independent reliability of the power grid subareas is as follows:
Kαis the independent reliability of the sub-area alpha of the power grid; beta is aαThe initial reliability of the sub-area alpha of the power grid is obtained; xαIs the average value of the harmonic pollution degree of the sub-area alpha of the power grid.
In this embodiment, if there is a harmonic in the power grid device, the whole line may be affected, so that a typical condition of the device needs to be detected, and the initial reliability of each power grid sub-region is corrected according to an electrical condition, so as to obtain the independent reliability of each power grid sub-region.
The greater the harmonic pollution level, the lower the reliability.
In an embodiment of the present invention, S103 includes:
obtaining other power grid sub-regions connected with the current power grid sub-region in the power grid model based on the region connection lines between the power grid sub-regions;
and calculating the influence degree of each power grid subregion on the power grid of the preset region according to the number of other power grid subregions influenced when the current power grid subregion has faults and the total number of the other power grid subregions.
In this embodiment, the degree of influence of the power grid sub-area on the power grid of the preset area includes:
wherein, BαThe influence degree of the sub-area alpha of the power grid on the power grid of the preset area is determined; gαThe power grid is the power grid after alpha fault in the power grid subregion; fα(Gα) The number of the affected power grid subareas after the power grid subarea alpha fails in the power grid is determined; and K is the total number of the sub-areas of the power grid in the power grid.
In an embodiment of the present invention, S104 includes:
selecting the regional connecting line with the longest service time, and obtaining a failure function of the regional connecting line with the longest service time along with the change of time and a failure function of the regional connecting line with the longest service time along with the change of environment;
calculating the failure probability of the regional connecting lines by utilizing the failure function of the regional connecting lines with the longest service time along with the change of time and the failure function of the regional connecting lines with the longest service time along with the change of environment;
and calculating the influence degree of each region connecting line on the power grid according to the number of the affected power grid sub-regions and the total number of the power grid sub-regions when the current region connecting line has faults.
In this embodiment, the failure probability of the zone connection line includes:
U=q3(t)*q4(T,S);
wherein: u shapeFailure probability of regional connection lines; q3(t) is a time-varying failure function of the zone connection lines; q4(T, S) is a failure function of the regional connection line along with the change of the environment; t is time; t is the temperature; s is humidity.
The influence degree of the regional connection lines on the power grid comprises:
wherein, YThe influence degree of the regional connection lines on the power grid subregion is determined; pThe power grid sub-area is a power grid sub-area after the area connecting line fails; r(P) The number of user equipment affected after the regional connection line fails; and K is the total number of the sub-areas of the power grid in the power grid.
In an embodiment of the present invention, S105 includes:
xi is the target reliability of the power grid in the preset area; kα1Is the independent reliability of the sub-area alpha 1 of the power grid; kα2Is the independent reliability of the sub-area alpha 2 of the power grid; kαNIs the independent reliability of the sub-area of the power grid alphaN; b isα1The influence degree of the power grid sub-region alpha 1 on the power grid of the preset region is obtained; b isα2The influence degree of the power grid sub-region alpha 2 on the power grid of the preset region is obtained; b isαNThe influence degree of the power grid sub-region alpha N on the power grid of the preset region is obtained; n is the total number of the sub-areas of the power grid; u shape1The probability of failure of the zone connection line 1; u shape2The probability of failure of the zone connection 2; u shapeMThe probability of failure of the zone connection line M; y is1The degree of influence of the zone connection line 1 on the power grid of the preset zone; y is2The degree of influence of the zone connection lines 2 on the power grid of the preset zone; y isMThe influence degree of the regional connection circuit M on the power grid of the preset region is determined; m is the total number of zone connection lines.
It should be understood that, the sequence numbers of the steps in the foregoing embodiments do not imply an execution sequence, and the execution sequence of each process should be determined by its function and inherent logic, and should not constitute any limitation to the implementation process of the embodiments of the present invention.
Example 2:
as shown in fig. 2, an embodiment of the present invention provides a system 100 for performing the method steps in the embodiment corresponding to fig. 1, which includes:
the splitting module 110 is configured to divide the power grid model into a plurality of power grid sub-regions according to a preset rule;
a first calculation module 120, configured to determine an initial reliability of each power grid sub-area based on device information of devices in the power grid sub-area and line information of each device connection line in the power grid sub-area; correcting the initial reliability of each power grid subregion to obtain the independent reliability of each power grid subregion;
the obtaining module 130 is configured to obtain an influence degree of each power grid sub-region on a power grid; acquiring the fault probability of each zone connecting line and the influence degree of each zone connecting line on the power grid of the preset zone, wherein the zone connecting lines are lines interconnected among the sub-zones of the power grid;
the second calculating module 140 is configured to calculate a target reliability of the power grid in the preset region by using the independent reliability of each power grid sub-region, the influence degree of each power grid sub-region on the power grid in the preset region, the fault probability of each region connection line, and the influence degree of each region connection line on the power grid in the preset region.
In an embodiment of the present invention, the splitting module 110 includes:
dividing the power grid model into a plurality of power grid sub-regions based on the geographical positions of the devices in the preset region;
or, selecting a main line from the power grid model, and taking the main line, and the equipment and equipment connection lines which have a subordinate relationship with the main line as power grid sub-regions;
or, the power supply station in the power grid model, and the devices and device connection lines which have subordination relation with the power supply station are used as power grid sub-areas.
In an embodiment of the present invention, the calculation of the initial reliability in the first calculation module 120 includes:
dividing the equipment in the power grid model into user equipment and power grid equipment, wherein the power grid equipment is the equipment in the power grid model except the user equipment;
the first failure function acquisition unit is used for respectively acquiring a failure function of each power grid device changing along with time, a failure function of each power grid device changing along with the environment and a failure rate of each power grid device at the current moment based on the device type of each power grid device;
the first calculation unit is used for calculating the fault probability of the power grid equipment by utilizing the time-varying failure function of the power grid equipment, the environment-varying failure function of the power grid equipment and the current-time fault-free rate of the power grid equipment;
the second calculation unit is used for calculating the influence degree of each power grid device on the power grid subregion based on the connection relation between the power grid devices and the user devices in the power grid subregion;
a second failure function obtaining unit, configured to obtain a failure function of a section of the sub-line with the longest service time in each equipment connection line, the failure function changing with time, and a failure function of a short sub-line with the longest service time in each equipment connection line, the failure functions changing with environment;
the third calculating unit is used for calculating the fault probability of each equipment connecting line by utilizing the failure function of the section of the equipment connecting line with the longest service time changing along with time and the failure function of the section of the equipment connecting line with the longest service time changing along with environment;
the fourth calculation unit is used for calculating the influence degree of each equipment connection line on the power grid subregion based on the position of each equipment connection line in the power grid subregion;
and the fifth calculation unit is used for obtaining the initial reliability of the power grid sub-region through the fault probability of the power grid equipment, the influence degree of the power grid equipment on the power grid sub-region, the fault probability of the equipment connection line and the influence degree of the equipment connection line on the power grid sub-region.
In the embodiment of the present invention, the failure probability of the grid device is:
wherein Q isjThe failure probability of the power grid equipment j is obtained; q1j(t) is a failure function of the grid device j over time; q2j(T, S) is a failure function of the power grid equipment j along with the change of the environment; ljThe fault-free rate of the power grid equipment j at the current moment is shown; t is tsIs the current time; t is tsjFor electric networksPreparing the last fault time of the current moment of j; t is tpjThe time average value of the fault-free work of the power grid equipment j is obtained; t is time; t is the temperature; s is humidity;
the influence degree of the power grid equipment on the power grid subareas is as follows:
wherein, CjThe influence degree of the power grid equipment j on the power grid subregion is shown; gjThe fault is a power grid subregion after the fault of the power grid equipment j; fj(Gj) The number of the user equipment affected after the fault of the power grid equipment j in the power grid subregion is determined; k is the total number of the user equipment in the power grid subregion;
the failure probability of the equipment connection line:
Mi=q3i(t)*q4i(T,S);
wherein: miThe failure probability of the equipment connecting line i is obtained; q3i(t) is a time-varying failure function of the equipment connection line i; q4i(T, S) is a failure function of the equipment connecting line i along with the change of the environment; t is time; t is the temperature; s is humidity;
the degree of influence of the equipment connection lines on the power grid sub-region in which the equipment connection lines are located is as follows:
wherein D isiThe influence degree of the equipment connection line i on the power grid subregion is determined; piThe power grid sub-area is a power grid sub-area after the equipment connecting line i fails; ri(Pi) The number of user equipment affected after the equipment connection line i fails; k is the total number of the user equipment in the power grid subregion;
initial reliability of the sub-area of the grid:
wherein, betaαThe initial reliability of the sub-area alpha of the power grid is obtained; qj1The failure probability of the power grid equipment j 1; qj2The failure probability of the power grid equipment j 2; qjnThe failure probability of the power grid equipment jn is obtained; n is the total number of the power grid equipment; cj1The influence degree of the power grid equipment j1 on the power grid subregion is; cj2The influence degree of the power grid equipment j2 on the power grid subregion is; cjnThe influence degree of the power grid equipment jn on the power grid subregion is determined; mi1Probability of failure of device connection i 1; mi2Probability of failure of device connection i 2; mimThe failure probability of the equipment connection line im; di1The influence degree of the equipment connection line i1 on the power grid subregion is determined; di2The influence degree of the equipment connection line i2 on the power grid subregion is determined; dimThe degree of influence of the equipment connection line im on the power grid subregion is determined; m is the total number of device connection lines.
In an embodiment of the present invention, the calculation of the independent reliability in the first calculation module 120 includes:
the first acquisition unit is used for acquiring the harmonic pollution degree of each user device in the power grid subregion;
a sixth calculating unit, configured to calculate an average value of the harmonic pollution degrees of the power grid sub-area by using the harmonic pollution degree of each user equipment;
the seventh calculating unit is used for correcting the initial reliability of the power grid sub-regions by using the average value of the harmonic pollution degree to obtain the independent reliability of each power grid sub-region;
the independent reliability of the power grid subareas is as follows:
Kαis the independent reliability of the sub-area alpha of the power grid; beta is aαThe initial reliability of the sub-area alpha of the power grid is obtained; xαHarmonic pollution of sub-area alpha of the gridMean value of degree.
In an embodiment of the present invention, the obtaining module 130 includes:
the second obtaining unit is used for obtaining other power grid sub-areas connected with the current power grid sub-area in the power grid model based on the area connection lines between the power grid sub-areas;
the eighth calculating unit is used for calculating the influence degree of each power grid subregion on the power grid of the preset region according to the number of other power grid subregions influenced when the current power grid subregion has a fault and the total number of the other power grid subregions;
the third acquisition unit is used for selecting the regional connection line with the longest service time and acquiring a failure function of the regional connection line with the longest service time along with the change of time and a failure function of the regional connection line with the longest service time along with the change of environment;
a ninth calculating unit, configured to calculate a failure probability of the regional connection line by using a time-varying failure function of the regional connection line with the longest service time and a time-varying failure function of the regional connection line with the longest service time;
and the tenth calculating unit is used for calculating the influence degree of each area connecting line on the power grid according to the number of the affected power grid sub-areas and the total number of the power grid sub-areas when the current area connecting line has a fault.
In an embodiment of the present invention, the second calculation module 140 includes:
xi is the target reliability of the power grid in the preset area; kα1Is the independent reliability of the sub-area alpha 1 of the power grid; kα2Is the independent reliability of the sub-area alpha 2 of the power grid; kαNIs the independent reliability of the sub-area of the power grid alphaN; b isα1The influence degree of the power grid sub-region alpha 1 on the power grid of the preset region is obtained; b isα2The influence degree of the power grid sub-region alpha 2 on the power grid of the preset region is obtained; b isαNThe influence degree of the power grid sub-region alpha N on the power grid of the preset region is obtained; n is the total number of the sub-areas of the power grid; u shape1The probability of failure of the zone connection line 1; u shape2The probability of failure of the zone connection 2; u shapeMThe probability of failure of the zone connection line M; y is1The degree of influence of the zone connection line 1 on the power grid of the preset zone; y is2The degree of influence of the zone connection lines 2 on the power grid of the preset zone; y isMThe influence degree of the regional connection circuit M on the power grid of the preset region is determined; m is the total number of zone connection lines.
It will be clear to those skilled in the art that, for convenience and simplicity of description, the foregoing division of the functional modules is merely used as an example, and in practical applications, the above function distribution may be performed by different functional modules according to needs, that is, the internal structure of the system is divided into different functional modules to perform all or part of the above described functions. Each functional module in the embodiments may be integrated in one processing unit, or each unit may exist alone physically, or two or more units are integrated in one unit, and the integrated module may be implemented in a form of hardware, or in a form of software functional unit. In addition, specific names of the functional modules are only used for distinguishing one functional module from another, and are not used for limiting the protection scope of the application. For the specific working process of the modules in the system, reference may be made to the corresponding process in embodiment 1, which is not described herein again.
Example 3:
fig. 3 is a schematic diagram of a terminal power supply device according to an embodiment of the present invention. As shown in fig. 3, the terminal power supply device 3 of this embodiment includes: a processor 30, a memory 31 and a computer program 32 stored in said memory 31 and executable on said processor 30. The processor 30, when executing the computer program 32, implements the steps in the embodiments as described in embodiment 1, such as steps S101 to S105 shown in fig. 1. Alternatively, the processor 30, when executing the computer program 32, implements the functions of the modules/units in the system embodiments as described in embodiment 2, such as the functions of the modules 110 to 140 shown in fig. 2.
The terminal power supply device 3 refers to a terminal with data processing capability, and includes but is not limited to a computer, a workstation, a server, and even some Smart phones, palm computers, tablet computers, Personal Digital Assistants (PDAs), Smart televisions (Smart TVs), and the like with excellent performance. The terminal power supply device is generally installed with an operating system, including but not limited to: windows operating system, LINUX operating system, Android (Android) operating system, Symbian operating system, Windows mobile operating system, and iOS operating system, among others. Specific examples of the terminal power supply device 3 are listed in detail above, and those skilled in the art will appreciate that the terminal power supply device is not limited to the listed examples.
The terminal power supply device may include, but is not limited to, a processor 30 and a memory 31. It will be understood by those skilled in the art that fig. 3 is only an example of the terminal power supply device 3, and does not constitute a limitation to the terminal power supply device 3, and may include more or less components than those shown, or combine some components, or different components, for example, the terminal power supply device 3 may further include an input and output power supply device, a network access power supply device, a bus, and the like.
The Processor 30 may be a Central Processing Unit (CPU), other general purpose Processor, a Digital Signal Processor (DSP), an Application Specific Integrated Circuit (ASIC), an off-the-shelf Programmable Gate Array (FPGA) or other Programmable logic device, discrete Gate or transistor logic, discrete hardware components, etc. A general purpose processor may be a microprocessor or the processor may be any conventional processor or the like.
The memory 31 may be an internal storage unit of the terminal power supply device 3, such as a hard disk or a memory of the terminal power supply device 3. The memory 31 may also be an external storage power supply device of the terminal power supply device 3, such as a plug-in hard disk, a Smart Media Card (SMC), a Secure Digital (SD) Card, a Flash memory Card (Flash Card), and the like, which are equipped on the terminal power supply device 3. Further, the memory 31 may also include both an internal storage unit of the terminal power supply device 3 and an external storage power supply device. The memory 31 is used for storing the computer program and other programs and data required by the terminal power supply apparatus 3. The memory 31 may also be used to temporarily store data that has been output or is to be output.
Example 4:
an embodiment of the present invention further provides a computer-readable storage medium, in which a computer program is stored, and the computer program, when executed by a processor, implements the steps in the embodiments described in embodiment 1, for example, step S101 to step S105 shown in fig. 1. Alternatively, the computer program, when executed by a processor, implements the functionality of the various modules/units in the various system embodiments as described in embodiment 2, such as the functionality of modules 110 to 140 shown in fig. 2.
The computer program may be stored in a computer readable storage medium, which when executed by a processor, may implement the steps of the various method embodiments described above. Wherein the computer program comprises computer program code, which may be in the form of source code, object code, an executable file or some intermediate form, etc. The computer-readable medium may include: any entity or device capable of carrying the computer program code, recording medium, usb disk, removable hard disk, magnetic disk, optical disk, computer Memory, Read-Only Memory (ROM), Random Access Memory (RAM), electrical carrier wave signals, telecommunications signals, software distribution medium, and the like.
In the above embodiments, the description of each embodiment has a respective emphasis, and embodiments 1 to 4 may be combined arbitrarily, and a new embodiment formed by combining is also within the scope of the present application. For parts which are not described or illustrated in a certain embodiment, reference may be made to the description of other embodiments.
Those of ordinary skill in the art will appreciate that the various illustrative elements and algorithm steps described in connection with the embodiments disclosed herein may be implemented as electronic hardware or combinations of computer software and electronic hardware. Whether such functionality is implemented as hardware or software depends upon the particular application and design constraints imposed on the implementation. Skilled artisans may implement the described functionality in varying ways for each particular application, but such implementation decisions should not be interpreted as causing a departure from the scope of the present invention.
In the embodiments provided in the present invention, it should be understood that the disclosed terminal power supply device and method can be implemented in other ways. For example, the above-described system/terminal power supply embodiments are merely illustrative, and for example, the division of the modules or units is only one logical division, and there may be other divisions when actually implemented, for example, multiple units or components may be combined or integrated into another system, or some features may be omitted, or not executed. In addition, the shown or discussed mutual coupling or direct coupling or communication connection may be an indirect coupling or communication connection through some interfaces, devices or units, and may be in an electrical, mechanical or other form.
The above-mentioned embodiments are only used for illustrating the technical solutions of the present invention, and not for limiting the same; although the present invention has been described in detail with reference to the foregoing embodiments, it will be understood by those of ordinary skill in the art that: the technical solutions described in the foregoing embodiments may still be modified, or some technical features may be equivalently replaced; such modifications and substitutions do not substantially depart from the spirit and scope of the embodiments of the present invention, and are intended to be included within the scope of the present invention.

Claims (9)

1. A power grid reliability assessment method is characterized by comprising the following steps:
dividing the power grid model into a plurality of power grid sub-regions according to a preset rule;
determining the initial reliability of each power grid subregion based on the equipment information of the equipment in the power grid subregion and the line information of each equipment connection line in the power grid subregion; correcting the initial reliability of each power grid subregion to obtain the independent reliability of each power grid subregion;
acquiring the influence degree of each power grid subregion on the power grid; acquiring the fault probability of each regional connecting line and the influence degree of each regional connecting line on the power grid of the preset region;
calculating the target reliability of the power grid of the preset area by using the independent reliability of each power grid subregion, the influence degree of each power grid subregion on the power grid of the preset area, the fault probability of each area connecting line and the influence degree of each area connecting line on the power grid of the preset area;
wherein the determining the initial reliability of each power grid subregion based on the device information of the devices in the power grid subregion and the line information of each device connection line in the power grid subregion comprises:
dividing the equipment in the power grid model into user equipment and power grid equipment, wherein the power grid equipment is the equipment in the power grid model except the user equipment;
respectively acquiring a failure function of each power grid device along with time change, a failure function of each power grid device along with environment change and a failure rate of each power grid device at the current moment based on the device type of each power grid device;
calculating the failure probability of the power grid equipment by utilizing the failure function of the power grid equipment changing along with time, the failure function of the power grid equipment changing along with the environment and the failure rate of the power grid equipment at the current moment;
calculating the influence degree of each power grid device on the power grid subregion based on the connection relation between the power grid device and the user device in the power grid subregion;
based on the failure function of a section of sub-circuit with the longest service time in each equipment connecting line changing along with the time and the failure function of a short sub-circuit with the longest service time in each equipment connecting line changing along with the environment;
calculating the fault probability of each equipment connecting line by using the failure function of the section of the sub-line with the longest service time in the equipment connecting line, which changes along with the time, and the failure function of the section of the sub-line with the longest service time in the equipment connecting line, which changes along with the environment;
calculating the influence degree of each equipment connecting line on the power grid subregion based on the position of each equipment connecting line in the power grid subregion;
and obtaining the initial reliability of the power grid sub-region through the fault probability of the power grid equipment, the influence degree of the power grid equipment on the power grid sub-region, the fault probability of the equipment connecting line and the influence degree of the equipment connecting line on the power grid sub-region.
2. The method for evaluating the reliability of the power grid according to claim 1, wherein the dividing the power grid model into a plurality of power grid sub-regions according to a preset rule comprises:
dividing the power grid model into a plurality of power grid sub-regions based on the geographical positions of the devices in the preset region;
or, selecting a main line from the power grid model, and taking the main line, and the equipment and equipment connection lines which have a subordinate relationship with the main line as power grid sub-regions;
or, the power supply station in the power grid model, and the devices and device connection lines which have subordination relation with the power supply station are used as power grid sub-areas.
3. The grid reliability assessment method according to claim 1, wherein the failure probability of the grid equipment is:
wherein Q isjThe failure probability of the power grid equipment j is obtained; q1j(t) is a failure function of the grid device j over time; q2j(T, S) is a failure function of the power grid equipment j along with the change of the environment; ljThe fault-free rate of the power grid equipment j at the current moment is shown; t is tsIs the current time; t is tsjThe current time is the last fault time of the power grid equipment j; t is tpjThe time average value of the fault-free work of the power grid equipment j is obtained; t is time; t is the temperature; s is humidity;
the influence degree of the power grid equipment on the power grid subareas is as follows:
wherein, CjThe influence degree of the power grid equipment j on the power grid subregion is shown; gjThe fault is a power grid subregion after the fault of the power grid equipment j; fj(Gj) The number of the user equipment affected after the fault of the power grid equipment j in the power grid subregion is determined; k is the total number of the user equipment in the power grid subregion;
the failure probability of the equipment connection line:
Mi=q3i(t)*q4i(T,S);
wherein: miThe failure probability of the equipment connecting line i is obtained; q3i(t) is a time-varying failure function of the equipment connection line i; q4i(T, S) is a failure function of the equipment connecting line i along with the change of the environment; t is time; t is the temperature; s is humidity;
the degree of influence of the equipment connection lines on the power grid sub-region in which the equipment connection lines are located is as follows:
wherein D isiThe influence degree of the equipment connection line i on the power grid subregion is determined; piThe power grid sub-area is a power grid sub-area after the equipment connecting line i fails; ri(Pi) The number of user equipment affected after the equipment connection line i fails; k is the total number of the user equipment in the power grid subregion;
initial reliability of the sub-area of the grid:
wherein, betaαThe initial reliability of the sub-area alpha of the power grid is obtained; qj1The failure probability of the power grid equipment j 1; qj2The failure probability of the power grid equipment j 2; qjnThe failure probability of the power grid equipment jn is obtained; n is the total number of the power grid equipment; cj1The influence degree of the power grid equipment j1 on the power grid subregion is; cj2The influence degree of the power grid equipment j2 on the power grid subregion is; cjnThe influence degree of the power grid equipment jn on the power grid subregion is determined; mi1Probability of failure of device connection i 1; mi2Probability of failure of device connection i 2; mimThe failure probability of the equipment connection line im; di1The influence degree of the equipment connection line i1 on the power grid subregion is determined; di2The influence degree of the equipment connection line i2 on the power grid subregion is determined; dimThe degree of influence of the equipment connection line im on the power grid subregion is determined; m is the total number of device connection lines.
4. The method according to claim 3, wherein the modifying the initial reliability of each sub-area of the power grid to obtain the independent reliability of each sub-area of the power grid comprises:
obtaining the harmonic pollution degree of each user device in the power grid subregion;
calculating the average value of the harmonic pollution degrees of the sub-area of the power grid by using the harmonic pollution degree of each user device;
correcting the initial reliability of the power grid sub-regions by using the average value of the harmonic pollution degree to obtain the independent reliability of each power grid sub-region;
the independent reliability of the power grid subareas is as follows:
Kαis the independent reliability of the sub-area alpha of the power grid; beta is aαThe initial reliability of the sub-area alpha of the power grid is obtained; xαIs the average value of the harmonic pollution degree of the sub-area alpha of the power grid.
5. The power grid reliability evaluation method according to claim 1, wherein the influence degree of each power grid sub-area on the power grid is obtained; acquiring the fault probability of each regional connecting line and the influence degree of each regional connecting line on the power grid of the preset region, wherein the influence degrees comprise:
obtaining other power grid sub-regions connected with the current power grid sub-region in the power grid model based on the region connection lines between the power grid sub-regions;
calculating the influence degree of each power grid subregion on the power grid of the preset region according to the number of other power grid subregions influenced when the current power grid subregion has a fault and the total number of the other power grid subregions;
selecting the regional connecting line with the longest service time, and obtaining a failure function of the regional connecting line with the longest service time along with the change of time and a failure function of the regional connecting line with the longest service time along with the change of environment;
calculating the failure probability of the regional connecting lines by utilizing the failure function of the regional connecting lines with the longest service time along with the change of time and the failure function of the regional connecting lines with the longest service time along with the change of environment;
and calculating the influence degree of each region connecting line on the power grid according to the number of the affected power grid sub-regions and the total number of the power grid sub-regions when the current region connecting line has faults.
6. The method for evaluating reliability of power grid according to claim 1, wherein the calculating the target reliability of the power grid of the preset zone by using the independent reliability of each power grid sub-zone, the degree of influence of each power grid sub-zone on the power grid of the preset zone, the probability of failure of each zone connection line and the degree of influence of each zone connection line on the power grid of the preset zone comprises:
xi is the target reliability of the power grid in the preset area; kα1Is the independent reliability of the sub-area alpha 1 of the power grid; kα2Is the independent reliability of the sub-area alpha 2 of the power grid; kαNIs the independent reliability of the sub-area of the power grid alphaN; b isα1The influence degree of the power grid sub-region alpha 1 on the power grid of the preset region is obtained; b isα2The influence degree of the power grid sub-region alpha 2 on the power grid of the preset region is obtained; b isαNThe influence degree of the power grid sub-region alpha N on the power grid of the preset region is obtained; n is the total number of the sub-areas of the power grid; u shape1The probability of failure of the zone connection line 1; u shape2The probability of failure of the zone connection 2; u shapeMThe probability of failure of the zone connection line M; y is1The degree of influence of the zone connection line 1 on the power grid of the preset zone; y is2The degree of influence of the zone connection lines 2 on the power grid of the preset zone; y isMThe influence degree of the regional connection circuit M on the power grid of the preset region is determined; m is the total number of zone connection lines.
7. A grid reliability assessment system, comprising:
the splitting module is used for dividing the power grid model into a plurality of power grid sub-regions according to a preset rule;
the first calculation module is used for determining the initial reliability of each power grid subregion based on the equipment information of the equipment in the power grid subregion and the line information of each equipment connection line in the power grid subregion; correcting the initial reliability of each power grid subregion to obtain the independent reliability of each power grid subregion;
the acquisition module is used for acquiring the influence degree of each power grid subregion on the power grid; acquiring the fault probability of each zone connecting line and the influence degree of each zone connecting line on a power grid of a preset zone, wherein the zone connecting lines are lines interconnected among sub-zones of the power grid;
the second calculation module is used for calculating the target reliability of the power grid of the preset area by utilizing the independent reliability of each power grid subregion, the influence degree of each power grid subregion on the power grid of the preset area, the fault probability of each area connecting line and the influence degree of each area connecting line on the power grid of the preset area;
dividing the equipment in the power grid model into user equipment and power grid equipment, wherein the power grid equipment is the equipment in the power grid model except the user equipment;
the first computing module includes:
the first failure function acquisition unit is used for respectively acquiring a failure function of each power grid device changing along with time, a failure function of each power grid device changing along with the environment and a failure-free rate of each power grid device at the current moment based on the device type of each power grid device;
the first calculation unit is used for calculating the fault probability of the power grid equipment by utilizing the time-varying failure function of the power grid equipment, the environment-varying failure function of the power grid equipment and the current-time fault-free rate of the power grid equipment;
the second calculation unit is used for calculating the influence degree of each power grid device on the power grid subregion based on the connection relation between the power grid devices and the user devices in the power grid subregion;
a second failure function obtaining unit, configured to obtain a failure function of a section of the sub-line with the longest service time in each equipment connection line, the failure function changing with time, and a failure function of a short sub-line with the longest service time in each equipment connection line, the failure functions changing with environment;
the third calculating unit is used for calculating the fault probability of each equipment connecting line by utilizing the failure function of the section of the equipment connecting line with the longest service time changing along with time and the failure function of the section of the equipment connecting line with the longest service time changing along with environment;
the fourth calculation unit is used for calculating the influence degree of each equipment connection line on the power grid subregion based on the position of each equipment connection line in the power grid subregion;
and the fifth calculation unit is used for obtaining the initial reliability of the power grid sub-region through the fault probability of the power grid equipment, the influence degree of the power grid equipment on the power grid sub-region, the fault probability of the equipment connection line and the influence degree of the equipment connection line on the power grid sub-region.
8. A terminal device, comprising a memory, a processor and a computer program stored in the memory and executable on the processor, wherein the processor when executing the computer program implements the steps of the grid reliability assessment method according to any one of claims 1 to 6.
9. A computer-readable storage medium, characterized in that the computer-readable storage medium stores a computer program which, when being executed by a processor, carries out the steps of the grid reliability assessment method according to any one of claims 1 to 6.
CN201910537978.4A 2019-06-20 2019-06-20 Power grid reliability assessment method and system and terminal power supply equipment Active CN110266001B (en)

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Publication number Priority date Publication date Assignee Title
CN101984533A (en) * 2010-10-12 2011-03-09 中国电力科学研究院 Method for assessing power distribution reliability of large-scale medium-voltage distribution network based on modes
CN104332996A (en) * 2014-11-18 2015-02-04 国家电网公司 Method for estimating power system reliability
CN109376428A (en) * 2018-10-24 2019-02-22 南方电网科学研究院有限责任公司 Reliability estimation method, device, equipment and the storage medium of integrated energy system

Patent Citations (3)

* Cited by examiner, † Cited by third party
Publication number Priority date Publication date Assignee Title
CN101984533A (en) * 2010-10-12 2011-03-09 中国电力科学研究院 Method for assessing power distribution reliability of large-scale medium-voltage distribution network based on modes
CN104332996A (en) * 2014-11-18 2015-02-04 国家电网公司 Method for estimating power system reliability
CN109376428A (en) * 2018-10-24 2019-02-22 南方电网科学研究院有限责任公司 Reliability estimation method, device, equipment and the storage medium of integrated energy system

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