CN108470227A - Based on the Regional Macro economic System prediction modeling method of assessment GDP growth figures and application - Google Patents

Based on the Regional Macro economic System prediction modeling method of assessment GDP growth figures and application Download PDF

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Publication number
CN108470227A
CN108470227A CN201810274387.8A CN201810274387A CN108470227A CN 108470227 A CN108470227 A CN 108470227A CN 201810274387 A CN201810274387 A CN 201810274387A CN 108470227 A CN108470227 A CN 108470227A
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prediction
assessment
regional
region
economic
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王菲
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Zhengzhou Institute of Technology
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Zhengzhou Institute of Technology
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    • GPHYSICS
    • G06COMPUTING; CALCULATING; COUNTING
    • G06QDATA PROCESSING SYSTEMS OR METHODS, SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL, SUPERVISORY OR FORECASTING PURPOSES; SYSTEMS OR METHODS SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL, SUPERVISORY OR FORECASTING PURPOSES, NOT OTHERWISE PROVIDED FOR
    • G06Q10/00Administration; Management
    • G06Q10/04Forecasting or optimisation, e.g. linear programming, "travelling salesman problem" or "cutting stock problem"
    • GPHYSICS
    • G06COMPUTING; CALCULATING; COUNTING
    • G06QDATA PROCESSING SYSTEMS OR METHODS, SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL, SUPERVISORY OR FORECASTING PURPOSES; SYSTEMS OR METHODS SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL, SUPERVISORY OR FORECASTING PURPOSES, NOT OTHERWISE PROVIDED FOR
    • G06Q50/00Systems or methods specially adapted for specific business sectors, e.g. utilities or tourism
    • G06Q50/10Services
    • G06Q50/26Government or public services

Abstract

The invention discloses a kind of based on the Regional Macro economic System prediction modeling method of assessment GDP growth figures and application, step 1:Obtain the microeconomy data developed with the regional city of the relevant different time frequency of the regional city economic development;Then the assessment GDP growth figures of corresponding region are obtained;Step 2:Using the microeconomy data of above-mentioned acquisition, in conjunction with corresponding period Macroeconomic Development index, and assessment GDP growth figures this tripartite relationship obtained is calculated, then utilize CES production function parameters, build the prediction model of region future development macroscopic view;Step 3:Using the output prediction result of future development macroscopic view in region in the macro-performance indicator and relevant range macroeconomy of acquisition, the economic growth in the region is analyzed using improved C D production function parameters, builds the Regional Macro economic System long-term prediction model.The present invention finally solves the problems, such as that existing Regional Macro economic System prediction effect is poor.

Description

Based on the Regional Macro economic System prediction modeling method of assessment GDP growth figures and application
Technical field
It is especially a kind of based on assessment GDP growth figures the present invention relates to a kind of technical field of macroeconomic forecasting Regional Macro economic System predicts modeling method and application.
Background technology
Macroeconomic forecasting refer to carried out using the economic activity of national economy, department, area as range it is various economical pre- It surveys, since macroeconomic development changes contiguity with continuity, relative stability and cause and effect, this just makes macroeconomic forecasting Scientific rationality is certainly existed, and makes macroeconomic forecasting can become to formulate macro economic policy, establishment and the economic hair of inspection The important evidence that exhibition is planned, adjusted economic structure.And for different zones, either its economic structure or its economic development water Averagely there is larger difference, therefore area-macro-economy prediction model is in the application of modeling principle and econometrics method There are larger difference, the modeling basic theory that different predetermined period uses should also be Forecast Model of Macro-Economy with the whole nation It is differentiated.The relationship that influences each other, influence degree between different zones economic variable should be able to really reflect that this area economy is gone through History behavioral characteristics.Although the foundation of all Forecast Model of Macro-Economies is all based on economic theory and economical operation mechanism, But since economical operation process is there are larger uncertainty, the relatively lagging behind property and economy of economic statistics achievement data in addition Inevitable error during indicator-specific statistics, so that most metering model equations are difficult to keep stronger robustness (Robust).In order to ensure the accuracy and robustness of model calculating and prediction, it usually needs pass through form difference but mechanism one The close model caused is repeated test experiments and seeks to be mutually authenticated between each submodel.
Have some scientific research institutions at present and some researchs are modeled to macroeconomic forecasting, also has part achievement in research, still Most of these Forecast Model of Macro-Economies are algorithmically to work hard, and such as genetic algorithm improves particle cluster algorithm, neural network The application in Forecast Model of Macro-Economy such as algorithm.And these research models will not change because of the change of predetermined period Algorithm principle, the reasonability of prediction result whether, have no way of explaining and internal can not check.Furthermore national economy refers to as you know Target statistics is counted by collecting sample, and the confidence level of part economic statistics index is worth discussion, therefore how It is to solve unique way of economic macro-forecast effect difference at present to the macroeconomic forecasting in region using assessment GDP growth figures Diameter.
Invention content
It is provided the purpose of the present invention is to solve above-mentioned the deficiencies in the prior art a kind of based on assessment GDP growth figures Regional Macro economic System prediction modeling method and application.
To achieve the goals above, a kind of Regional Macro economic System based on assessment GDP growth figures designed by the present invention It predicts modeling method, includes the following steps:
Step 1:Obtain the microcosmic warp developed with the regional city of the relevant different time frequency of the regional city economic development Ji data;Wherein above-mentioned microeconomy data include industrial electricity, medium-term and long-term credit remaining sum, the iron that the region corresponds to the period Afloat freight volume, and using a simple regression analysis result of three's speedup and GDP speedup model of fit as weight, then basis Formula:GDP growth figures=industrial electricity speedup × 40%+ medium-term and long-term credits remaining sum speedup × 35%+ volumes of rail freigh are assessed to increase Speed × 25%;Obtain the assessment GDP growth figures of corresponding region;
Step 2:Using the microeconomy data of above-mentioned acquisition, in conjunction with corresponding period Macroeconomic Development index, and calculate Then this tripartite relationship of the assessment GDP growth figures of acquisition utilizes CES production function parameters, structure region future development macroscopic view Prediction model;Wherein the pre- of industrial increasing value is mainly built during the prediction model of structure region future development macroscopic view Survey, the predicting of gross fixed assets investment, social Retail commodity total value prediction, total export prediction, community network merchandising The prediction of total value, the total value prediction of credit;
The prediction of the wherein described gross fixed assets investment includes that two kinds of forms are predicted in capital expenditure prediction and renovation and reformation investment, Mainly press specific productivity measuring and calculating investment;The prediction of the industry increasing value is by industrial added value=total industrial output value- Industrial middle consumption+current period value added tax payable is predicted in conjunction with CES production function parameters;
Step 3:Output using future development macroscopic view in region in the macro-performance indicator and relevant range macroeconomy of acquisition is pre- It surveys as a result, analyzed the economic growth in the region using improved C-D production function parameters, builds regional macro warp Help long-term prediction model.
Further, the prediction model of the gross fixed assets investment in step 2 includes the development investment to real estate Prosperous prediction, to the prediction of industrial equipment investment, to bank financing, futures, the prosperous prediction of stock product-specific investments and right The prediction of industry employed population number.
Further, the social Retail commodity total value prediction model in step 2 includes to income of residents prediction, offsets The person of expense pays prediction, to the prediction of consumer products purchase intention, the requirement forecasting of the sales volume prediction of commodity and commodity.
Further, the total export prediction model in step 2 includes to commodity export order forecasting, to exporter The requirement forecasting of product, the prediction of RMB exchange rate.
Further, it when obtaining the microeconomy data of the Regional Economic Development, needs to filter out respectively and industry increase It is worth relevant microeconomy index, such as:Capital input, production scale, cost efficiency;Calculate industrial added value predicated response Value builds industrial added value prediction model, while being tested the model, check, correct, final output prediction result.
The invention also discloses a kind of Regional Macro economic Systems based on assessment GDP growth figures to predict answering for modeling method With, which is characterized in that include that a kind of Regional Macro economic System prediction modeling method based on assessment GDP growth figures is applied to area In the macroeconomic forecasting of domain.
A kind of Regional Macro economic System based on assessment GDP growth figures that the present invention obtains predicts modeling method and application, Regional Macro economic System is subjected to prediction structure model using assessment GDP growth figures, it is pre- finally to solve existing Regional Macro economic System Survey the problem of effect difference.
Description of the drawings
Fig. 1 is a kind of flow of the Regional Macro economic System prediction modeling method based on assessment GDP growth figures in embodiment 1 Illustrate frame diagram.
Specific implementation mode
The invention is described further with reference to embodiment.
Embodiment 1:
As shown in Figure 1, a kind of Regional Macro economic System based on assessment GDP growth figures provided in this embodiment predicts modeling side Method includes the following steps:
Step 1:Obtain the microcosmic warp developed with the regional city of the relevant different time frequency of the regional city economic development Ji data;Wherein above-mentioned microeconomy data include industrial electricity, medium-term and long-term credit remaining sum, the iron that the region corresponds to the period Afloat freight volume, and using a simple regression analysis result of three's speedup and GDP speedup model of fit as weight, then basis Formula:GDP growth figures=industrial electricity speedup × 40%+ medium-term and long-term credits remaining sum speedup × 35%+ volumes of rail freigh are assessed to increase Speed × 25%;Obtain the assessment GDP growth figures of corresponding region;
Step 2:Using the microeconomy data of above-mentioned acquisition, in conjunction with corresponding period Macroeconomic Development index, and calculate Then this tripartite relationship of the assessment GDP growth figures of acquisition utilizes CES production function parameters, structure region future development macroscopic view Prediction model;Wherein the pre- of industrial increasing value is mainly built during the prediction model of structure region future development macroscopic view Survey, the predicting of gross fixed assets investment, social Retail commodity total value prediction, total export prediction, community network merchandising The prediction of total value, the total value prediction of credit;
The prediction of the wherein described gross fixed assets investment includes that two kinds of forms are predicted in capital expenditure prediction and renovation and reformation investment, Mainly press specific productivity measuring and calculating investment;The prediction of the industry increasing value is by industrial added value=total industrial output value- Industrial middle consumption+current period value added tax payable is predicted in conjunction with CES production function parameters;
Step 3:Output using future development macroscopic view in region in the macro-performance indicator and relevant range macroeconomy of acquisition is pre- It surveys as a result, analyzed the economic growth in the region using improved C-D production function parameters, builds regional macro warp Help long-term prediction model.
Further, the prediction model of the gross fixed assets investment in step 2 includes the development investment to real estate Prosperous prediction, to the prediction of industrial equipment investment, to bank financing, futures, the prosperous prediction of stock product-specific investments and right The prediction of industry employed population number.
Further, the social Retail commodity total value prediction model in step 2 includes to income of residents prediction, offsets The person of expense pays prediction, to the prediction of consumer products purchase intention, the requirement forecasting of the sales volume prediction of commodity and commodity.
Further, the total export prediction model in step 2 includes to commodity export order forecasting, to exporter The requirement forecasting of product, the prediction of RMB exchange rate.
Further, it when obtaining the microeconomy data of the Regional Economic Development, needs to filter out respectively and industry increase It is worth relevant microeconomy index, such as:Capital input, production scale, cost efficiency;Calculate industrial added value predicated response Value builds industrial added value prediction model, while being tested the model, check, correct, final output prediction result.
The present embodiment also discloses a kind of answering for Regional Macro economic System prediction modeling method based on assessment GDP growth figures With, which is characterized in that include that a kind of Regional Macro economic System prediction modeling method based on assessment GDP growth figures is applied to area In the macroeconomic forecasting of domain.
The above shows and describes the basic principles and main features of the present invention and the advantages of the present invention, for this field skill For art personnel, it is clear that invention is not limited to the details of the above exemplary embodiments, and without departing substantially from the present invention spirit or In the case of essential characteristic, the present invention can be realized in other specific forms.Therefore, in all respects, should all incite somebody to action Embodiment regards exemplary as, and is non-limiting, the scope of the present invention by appended claims rather than on state Bright restriction, it is intended that including all changes that come within the meaning and range of equivalency of the claims in the present invention It is interior.Any reference signs in the claims should not be construed as limiting the involved claims.
It although an embodiment of the present invention has been shown and described, for the ordinary skill in the art, can be with Understanding without departing from the principles and spirit of the present invention can carry out these embodiments a variety of variations, modification, replace And modification, the scope of the present invention is defined by the appended.

Claims (2)

1. a kind of Regional Macro economic System based on assessment GDP growth figures predicts modeling method, which is characterized in that including following step Suddenly:
Step 1:Obtain the microcosmic warp developed with the regional city of the relevant different time frequency of the regional city economic development Ji data;Wherein above-mentioned microeconomy data include industrial electricity, medium-term and long-term credit remaining sum, the iron that the region corresponds to the period Afloat freight volume, and using a simple regression analysis result of three's speedup and GDP speedup model of fit as weight, then basis Formula:GDP growth figures=industrial electricity speedup × 40%+ medium-term and long-term credits remaining sum speedup × 35%+ volumes of rail freigh are assessed to increase Speed × 25%;Obtain the assessment GDP growth figures of corresponding region;
Step 2:Using the microeconomy data of above-mentioned acquisition, in conjunction with corresponding period Macroeconomic Development index, and calculate Then this tripartite relationship of the assessment GDP growth figures of acquisition utilizes CES production function parameters, structure region future development macroscopic view Prediction model;Wherein the pre- of industrial increasing value is mainly built during the prediction model of structure region future development macroscopic view Survey, the predicting of gross fixed assets investment, social Retail commodity total value prediction, total export prediction, community network merchandising The prediction of total value, the total value prediction of credit;
The prediction of the wherein described gross fixed assets investment includes that two kinds of forms are predicted in capital expenditure prediction and renovation and reformation investment, Mainly press specific productivity measuring and calculating investment;The prediction of the industry increasing value is by industrial added value=total industrial output value- Industrial middle consumption+current period value added tax payable is predicted in conjunction with CES production function parameters;
Step 3:Output using future development macroscopic view in region in the macro-performance indicator and relevant range macroeconomy of acquisition is pre- It surveys as a result, analyzed the economic growth in the region using improved C-D production function parameters, builds regional macro warp Help long-term prediction model.
2. modeling method is predicted according to a kind of Regional Macro economic System based on assessment GDP growth figures described in claim 1, It is characterized in that, the prediction model of the gross fixed assets investment in step 2 includes the scape to the development investment of real estate Gas prediction, to the prediction of industrial equipment investment, to bank financing, futures, the prosperous prediction of stock product-specific investments and to industry The prediction of employed population number.
CN201810274387.8A 2018-03-29 2018-03-29 Based on the Regional Macro economic System prediction modeling method of assessment GDP growth figures and application Pending CN108470227A (en)

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Cited By (1)

* Cited by examiner, † Cited by third party
Publication number Priority date Publication date Assignee Title
CN109389164A (en) * 2018-09-28 2019-02-26 浙江大学 Regional per Unit GDP Energy Consumption prediction technique based on support vector regression model

Cited By (1)

* Cited by examiner, † Cited by third party
Publication number Priority date Publication date Assignee Title
CN109389164A (en) * 2018-09-28 2019-02-26 浙江大学 Regional per Unit GDP Energy Consumption prediction technique based on support vector regression model

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Application publication date: 20180831