CN108038569A - A kind of grid-connected power predicating method of distributed photovoltaic and system - Google Patents
A kind of grid-connected power predicating method of distributed photovoltaic and system Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
本发明公开了一种分布式光伏并网电量预测方法及系统，该方法包括：获取分布式光伏发电系统的历史并网电量信息；获取与所述历史并网电量信息对应的历史光照信息；生成所述历史光照信息与所述历史并网电量信息之间的并网电量数据曲线；获取所述分布式光伏发电系统在目标时刻的光照信息，并根据所述并网电量曲线预测得到所述分布式光伏发电系统在目标时刻的并网电量。通过本发明实现了提高对光伏并网电量预测的准确性和降低了预测成本的目的。
The invention discloses a method and system for forecasting distributed photovoltaic grid-connected power. The method includes: acquiring historical grid-connected power information of a distributed photovoltaic power generation system; acquiring historical illumination information corresponding to the historical grid-connected power information; generating The grid-connected power data curve between the historical lighting information and the historical grid-connected power information; obtain the lighting information of the distributed photovoltaic power generation system at the target time, and predict the distribution according to the grid-connected power curve The grid-connected electricity of the photovoltaic power generation system at the target time. The invention achieves the goals of improving the accuracy of forecasting photovoltaic grid-connected electricity and reducing the forecasting cost.
Description
技术领域technical field
本发明涉及光伏发电技术领域，特别是涉及一种分布式光伏并网电量预测方法及系统。The invention relates to the technical field of photovoltaic power generation, in particular to a distributed photovoltaic grid-connected power forecasting method and system.
背景技术Background technique
随着电力能源需求的日益增长，光伏发电技术也趋于成熟。其中，分布式光伏发电系统也被称为分散式发电或者分布式供能，是指在用户现场或靠近用电现场配置较小的光伏发电供电系统，以满足特定用户的需求，支持现存配电网的经济运行，或者同时满足这两个方面的需求。分布式光伏发电系统的运行模式是在有太阳辐射的条件下，光伏发电系统的太阳能电池组件阵列将太阳能进行转换输出电能，并经过直流汇流箱集中送入直流配电柜，由并网逆变器变成交流电供给建筑自身负载，多余或者不足的电力通过连接电网来调节。With the increasing demand for electric energy, photovoltaic power generation technology is also becoming mature. Among them, the distributed photovoltaic power generation system is also called distributed power generation or distributed energy supply. The economic operation of the network, or meet the needs of both aspects at the same time. The operation mode of the distributed photovoltaic power generation system is that under the condition of solar radiation, the solar cell module array of the photovoltaic power generation system converts the solar energy to output electric energy, and sends it to the DC power distribution cabinet through the DC combiner box, and the grid-connected inverter The inverter turns into alternating current to supply the building's own load, and the excess or insufficient power is regulated by connecting to the grid.
分布式光伏发电系统能够产生清洁的电能，并且辅助电力系统缓解用电压力。但是分布式光伏发电系统进行并网的过程中仍会产生一些缺陷，碧土对电网规划的影响，并网传输会造成电压波动，容易产生谐波污染和使继电保护范围缩小等，而产生这些缺陷的主要是由于对分布式光伏并网电量的预测不准确。Distributed photovoltaic power generation system can generate clean electricity, and assist the power system to relieve the pressure of electricity consumption. However, there will still be some defects in the grid-connected process of the distributed photovoltaic power generation system. The influence of the green soil on the grid planning, the grid-connected transmission will cause voltage fluctuations, and it is easy to generate harmonic pollution and reduce the protection range of the relay, etc., resulting in These defects are mainly due to the inaccurate prediction of distributed photovoltaic grid-connected electricity.
为了能够准确对分布式光伏并网电量进行预设，通常会采用集中式光伏监控系统对并网电量进行监控。该系统提供数据采集、实时监视、控制操作和事故报警等功能，其中，数据采集依赖专业的硬件设备，例如，通过环境气象仪采集气象信息和并网环境信息等，但是对于分布式光伏发电系统的用户来说，这些硬件设备由于其成本高无法普遍应用到各个分布式光伏发电系统中，进入无法准确预测分布式光伏并网电量。In order to accurately preset the distributed photovoltaic grid-connected power, a centralized photovoltaic monitoring system is usually used to monitor the grid-connected power. The system provides functions such as data acquisition, real-time monitoring, control operation and accident alarm, among which, data acquisition relies on professional hardware equipment, for example, collecting meteorological information and grid-connected environmental information through environmental meteorological instruments, but for distributed photovoltaic power generation systems For users, these hardware devices cannot be widely applied to various distributed photovoltaic power generation systems due to their high cost, and it is impossible to accurately predict the grid-connected power of distributed photovoltaics.
发明内容Contents of the invention
针对于上述问题，本发明提供一种分布式光伏并网电量预测方法及系统，实现了提高对光伏并网电量预测的准确性和降低了预测成本的目的。In view of the above problems, the present invention provides a distributed photovoltaic grid-connected electricity forecasting method and system, which achieves the purpose of improving the accuracy of photovoltaic grid-connected electricity forecast and reducing the forecasting cost.
为了实现上述目的，根据本发明的第一方面，提供了一种分布式光伏并网电量预测方法，该方法包括：In order to achieve the above purpose, according to the first aspect of the present invention, a distributed photovoltaic grid-connected electricity forecasting method is provided, the method comprising:
获取分布式光伏发电系统的历史并网电量信息；Obtain the historical grid-connected power information of the distributed photovoltaic power generation system;
获取与所述历史并网电量信息对应的历史光照信息；Acquiring historical illumination information corresponding to the historical grid-connected power information;
生成所述历史光照信息与所述历史并网电量信息之间的并网电量数据曲线；generating a grid-connected power data curve between the historical illumination information and the historical grid-connected power information;
获取所述分布式光伏发电系统在目标时刻的光照信息，并根据所述并网电量曲线预测得到所述分布式光伏发电系统在目标时刻的并网电量。Obtain the illumination information of the distributed photovoltaic power generation system at the target time, and predict the grid-connected power of the distributed photovoltaic power generation system at the target time according to the grid-connected power curve.
优选地，所述获取分布式光伏发电系统的历史并网电量信息，包括：Preferably, the acquisition of historical grid-connected electricity quantity information of the distributed photovoltaic power generation system includes:
采集所述分布式光伏发电系统的实时信息，其中，所述实时信息包括电压、电流、功率和故障信息；collecting real-time information of the distributed photovoltaic power generation system, wherein the real-time information includes voltage, current, power and fault information;
采集所述分布式光伏发电系统的历史并网电量数据；Collect historical grid-connected power data of the distributed photovoltaic power generation system;
采集所述分布式发电系统的位置信息；collecting location information of the distributed power generation system;
根据所述分布式光伏发电系统的实时信息、所述历史并网电量数据和所述位置信息统计分析获得每个时间段的所述分布式光伏发电系统的历史并网电量信息。According to the real-time information of the distributed photovoltaic power generation system, the historical grid-connected power data and the statistical analysis of the location information, the historical grid-connected power information of the distributed photovoltaic power generation system for each time period is obtained.
优选地，所述生成所述历史光照信息与所述历史并网电量信息之间的并网电量数据曲线，包括：Preferably, the generating the grid-connected power data curve between the historical illumination information and the historical grid-connected power information includes:
获取所述历史光照信息的光照时间与光照数据的对应关系；Obtain the corresponding relationship between the illumination time of the historical illumination information and the illumination data;
获取与所述光照时间对应的各个并网电量信息；Obtaining information on each grid-connected power quantity corresponding to the illumination time;
以所述光照数据为横轴，以所述各个并网电量信息为纵轴，绘制得到所述并网电量数据曲线。Taking the illumination data as the horizontal axis and the respective grid-connected power information as the vertical axis, draw the grid-connected power data curve.
优选地，在获取所述分布式光伏发电系统在目标时刻的光照信息，并根据所述并网电量曲线预测得到所述分布式光伏发电系统在目标时刻的并网电量之前，该方法还包括：Preferably, before obtaining the illumination information of the distributed photovoltaic power generation system at the target time, and predicting the grid-connected power of the distributed photovoltaic power generation system at the target time according to the grid-connected power curve, the method further includes:
获取所述分布式光伏发电系统所在地理位置信息；Obtain the geographic location information of the distributed photovoltaic power generation system;
根据所述地理位置信息获取所述分布式光伏发电系统在目标时刻的光照信息。Obtaining illumination information of the distributed photovoltaic power generation system at a target time according to the geographic location information.
优选地，还包括：Preferably, it also includes:
采集所述分布式光伏发电系统的发电总量信息；Collecting the total power generation information of the distributed photovoltaic power generation system;
根据所述发电总量信息预测所述分布式光伏发电系统的并网电量，得到第一预测值；Predicting the grid-connected electricity of the distributed photovoltaic power generation system according to the total power generation information to obtain a first predicted value;
通过所述第一预测值对在目标时刻的并网电量进行校正处理，得到目标并网电量预测值。The grid-connected power at the target time is corrected by the first predicted value to obtain the predicted value of the target grid-connected power.
根据本发明的第二方面，提供了一种分布式光伏并网电量预测系统，包括：According to the second aspect of the present invention, a distributed photovoltaic grid-connected power forecasting system is provided, including:
第一获取模块，用于获取分布式光伏发电系统的历史并网电量信息；The first acquisition module is used to acquire the historical grid-connected electricity quantity information of the distributed photovoltaic power generation system;
第二获取模块，用于获取与所述历史并网电量信息对应的历史光照信息；A second acquisition module, configured to acquire historical illumination information corresponding to the historical grid-connected power information;
生成模块，用于生成所述历史光照信息与所述历史并网电量信息之间的并网电量数据曲线；A generating module, configured to generate a grid-connected power data curve between the historical illumination information and the historical grid-connected power information;
预测模块，用于获取所述分布式光伏发电系统在目标时刻的光照信息，并根据所述并网电量曲线预测得到所述分布式光伏发电系统在目标时刻的并网电量。The prediction module is used to obtain the illumination information of the distributed photovoltaic power generation system at the target time, and predict the grid-connected power of the distributed photovoltaic power generation system at the target time according to the grid-connected power curve.
优选地，所述第一获取模块包括：Preferably, the first acquisition module includes:
第一采集单元，用于采集所述分布式光伏发电系统的实时信息，其中，所述实时信息包括电压、电流、功率和故障信息；The first collection unit is used to collect real-time information of the distributed photovoltaic power generation system, wherein the real-time information includes voltage, current, power and fault information;
第二采集单元，用于采集所述分布式光伏发电系统的历史并网电量数据；The second collection unit is used to collect historical grid-connected power data of the distributed photovoltaic power generation system;
第三采集单元，用于采集所述分布式发电系统的位置信息；a third collection unit, configured to collect location information of the distributed power generation system;
分析单元，用于根据所述分布式光伏发电系统的实时信息、所述历史并网电量数据和所述位置信息统计分析获得每个时间段的所述分布式光伏发电系统的历史并网电量信息。An analysis unit, configured to obtain the historical grid-connected power information of the distributed photovoltaic power generation system for each time period according to the real-time information of the distributed photovoltaic power generation system, the historical grid-connected power data and the statistical analysis of the location information .
优选地，所述生成模块包括：Preferably, the generating module includes:
第一获取单元，用于获取所述历史光照信息的光照时间与光照数据的对应关系；A first acquisition unit, configured to acquire the correspondence between the illumination time of the historical illumination information and the illumination data;
第二获取单元，用于获取与所述光照时间对应的各个并网电量信息；a second acquisition unit, configured to acquire each grid-connected power information corresponding to the illumination time;
绘制单元，用于以所述光照数据为横轴，以所述各个并网电量信息为纵轴，绘制得到所述并网电量数据曲线。The drawing unit is configured to draw the grid-connected power data curve with the illumination data as the horizontal axis and the respective grid-connected power information as the vertical axis.
优选地，还包括：Preferably, it also includes:
地理信息获取单元，用于获取所述分布式光伏发电系统所在地理位置信息；a geographic information acquisition unit, configured to acquire geographical location information of the distributed photovoltaic power generation system;
光照获取单元，用于根据所述地理位置信息获取所述分布式光伏发电系统在目标时刻的光照信息。The illumination acquiring unit is configured to acquire illumination information of the distributed photovoltaic power generation system at a target time according to the geographic location information.
优选地，还包括：Preferably, it also includes:
总电量采集模块，用于采集所述分布式光伏发电系统的发电总量信息；The total power collection module is used to collect the total power generation information of the distributed photovoltaic power generation system;
第一预测模块，用于根据所述发电总量信息预测所述分布式光伏发电系统的并网电量，得到第一预测值；The first prediction module is used to predict the grid-connected electricity of the distributed photovoltaic power generation system according to the total power generation information, and obtain a first prediction value;
校正模块，用于通过所述第一预测值对在目标时刻的并网电量进行校正处理，得到目标并网电量预测值。A correction module, configured to perform correction processing on the grid-connected electricity at the target time by using the first predicted value, so as to obtain a target predicted value of grid-connected electricity.
相较于现有技术，本发明获取分布式光伏发电系统的历史并网电量信息，并获取对应的历史光照信息，然后绘制得到并网电量信息与光照信息的数据曲线，最终可以根据目标时刻的光照信息通过该数据曲线预测得到分布式光伏发电系统的并网电量。由于在本发明中是通过天气预报系统直接获取了分布式光伏发电系统的光照信息，而无需采用其他的环境信息硬件设备进行采集，实现了采集成本低，并且获取采集信息便捷的目的。同时通过光照与并网电量信息生成预测曲线，通过光照进行并网电量的预测有效地结合了环境因素对并网电量的影响，提高了对光伏并网电量预测的准确性。Compared with the prior art, the present invention obtains the historical grid-connected power information of the distributed photovoltaic power generation system, and obtains the corresponding historical lighting information, and then draws the data curve of the grid-connected power information and the lighting information, and finally can obtain the data curve according to the target time. The illumination information is predicted by the data curve to obtain the grid-connected electricity of the distributed photovoltaic power generation system. In the present invention, the illumination information of the distributed photovoltaic power generation system is directly obtained through the weather forecast system without using other environmental information hardware devices for collection, so the purpose of low collection cost and convenient collection of information is achieved. At the same time, the prediction curve is generated through the information of illumination and grid-connected electricity, and the prediction of grid-connected electricity through illumination effectively combines the influence of environmental factors on grid-connected electricity, and improves the accuracy of forecasting photovoltaic grid-connected electricity.
附图说明Description of drawings
为了更清楚地说明本发明实施例或现有技术中的技术方案，下面将对实施例或现有技术描述中所需要使用的附图作简单地介绍，显而易见地，下面描述中的附图仅仅是本发明的实施例，对于本领域普通技术人员来讲，在不付出创造性劳动的前提下，还可以根据提供的附图获得其他的附图。In order to more clearly illustrate the technical solutions in the embodiments of the present invention or the prior art, the following will briefly introduce the drawings that need to be used in the description of the embodiments or the prior art. Obviously, the accompanying drawings in the following description are only It is an embodiment of the present invention, and those skilled in the art can also obtain other drawings according to the provided drawings without creative work.
图1为本发明实施例一提供的一种分布式光伏并网电量预测方法的流程示意图；Fig. 1 is a schematic flowchart of a distributed photovoltaic grid-connected power forecasting method provided by Embodiment 1 of the present invention;
图2为本发明实施例提供的一种分布式光伏并网电量预测系统的场景布局示意图；FIG. 2 is a schematic diagram of a scene layout of a distributed photovoltaic grid-connected electricity forecasting system provided by an embodiment of the present invention;
图3为本发明实施例三提供的一种分布式光伏并网电量预测系统的结构示意图。FIG. 3 is a schematic structural diagram of a distributed photovoltaic grid-connected power forecasting system provided by Embodiment 3 of the present invention.
具体实施方式Detailed ways
下面将结合本发明实施例中的附图，对本发明实施例中的技术方案进行清楚、完整地描述，显然，所描述的实施例仅仅是本发明一部分实施例，而不是全部的实施例。基于本发明中的实施例，本领域普通技术人员在没有做出创造性劳动前提下所获得的所有其他实施例，都属于本发明保护的范围。The following will clearly and completely describe the technical solutions in the embodiments of the present invention with reference to the accompanying drawings in the embodiments of the present invention. Obviously, the described embodiments are only some, not all, embodiments of the present invention. Based on the embodiments of the present invention, all other embodiments obtained by persons of ordinary skill in the art without making creative efforts belong to the protection scope of the present invention.
本发明的说明书和权利要求书及上述附图中的术语“第一”和“第二”等是用于区别不同的对象，而不是用于描述特定的顺序。此外术语“包括”和“具有”以及他们任何变形，意图在于覆盖不排他的包含。例如包含了一系列步骤或单元的过程、方法、系统、产品或设备没有设定于已列出的步骤或单元，而是可包括没有列出的步骤或单元。The terms "first" and "second" in the specification and claims of the present invention and the above drawings are used to distinguish different objects, rather than to describe a specific order. Furthermore, the terms "comprising" and "having", and any variations thereof, are intended to cover a non-exclusive inclusion. For example, a process, method, system, product or apparatus comprising a series of steps or units is not defined by listed steps or units, but may include unlisted steps or units.
实施例一Embodiment one
参见图1为本发明实施例一提供的一种分布式光伏并网电量预测方法的流程示意图，该方法包括以下步骤：Referring to Fig. 1, it is a schematic flowchart of a distributed photovoltaic grid-connected electricity forecasting method provided by Embodiment 1 of the present invention, the method includes the following steps:
S11、获取分布式光伏发电系统的历史并网电量信息；S11. Obtain historical grid-connected power information of the distributed photovoltaic power generation system;
具体的包括：Specifically include:
采集所述分布式光伏发电系统的实时信息，其中，所述实时信息包括电压、电流、功率和故障信息；collecting real-time information of the distributed photovoltaic power generation system, wherein the real-time information includes voltage, current, power and fault information;
采集所述分布式光伏发电系统的历史并网电量数据；Collect historical grid-connected power data of the distributed photovoltaic power generation system;
采集所述分布式发电系统的位置信息；collecting location information of the distributed power generation system;
根据所述分布式光伏发电系统的实时信息、所述历史并网电量数据和所述位置信息统计分析获得每个时间段的所述分布式光伏发电系统的历史并网电量信息。According to the real-time information of the distributed photovoltaic power generation system, the historical grid-connected power data and the statistical analysis of the location information, the historical grid-connected power information of the distributed photovoltaic power generation system for each time period is obtained.
请同时参见图2，为该分布式光伏并网电量预测方法的场景应用示意图。在实际应用中是通过分布式光伏监控系统通过智能通讯终端采集分布式光伏发电系统的实时信息，包括电压、电流及功率等电气模拟量，以及开关状态、事故跳闸信号、保护动作信号等信息。Please also refer to FIG. 2 , which is a schematic diagram of the scenario application of the distributed photovoltaic grid-connected power forecasting method. In practical application, the real-time information of the distributed photovoltaic power generation system is collected through the distributed photovoltaic monitoring system through the intelligent communication terminal, including electrical analog quantities such as voltage, current and power, as well as information such as switch status, accident trip signal, and protection action signal.
通过采集天气预报系统提供的气温、湿度、日照强度等环境数值参数。By collecting environmental numerical parameters such as temperature, humidity, and sunshine intensity provided by the weather forecast system.
通过分布式光伏并网电量采集系统采集用户并网电量，这些用户并网电量指的是该用户有效的历史并网电量。The grid-connected power of users is collected through the distributed photovoltaic grid-connected power collection system. These users' grid-connected power refers to the user's effective historical grid-connected power.
通过采集光伏电站信息中心记载的光伏电站地理位置、并网情况等基本信息，这些信息主要包括并网方式(余量上网、全量上网、全部自用)、装机容量、并网电压等级、联系人信息等。By collecting basic information such as the geographical location of photovoltaic power stations and grid connection conditions recorded in the photovoltaic power station information center, the information mainly includes grid connection methods (residual online, full online, all for self-use), installed capacity, grid-connected voltage level, and contact information Wait.
上述采集到的信息都直接或间接影响分布式光伏发电系统的并网电量信息，所以需要对上述采集到的信息进行线性或者非线性分析才能得到准确的并网电量信息。例如，首先要保证分布式光伏发电系统的正常稳定工作，当分布式光伏发电系统出现事故跳闸时，即使当天的环境气候指标良好，也可能只产生少量的并网电量信息，所以要将这种异常状态下的并网电量进行剔除。同时，也要根据分布式光伏发电系统的并网方式进行处理，如果某个分布式光伏发电系统的并网方式可以是剩余电量并网而需要预测的分布式光伏发电系统的并网方式是全部电量并网，则需要将剩余电量与用户使用电量进行加和处理才能够得到对应的并网电量信息。The information collected above directly or indirectly affects the grid-connected power information of the distributed photovoltaic power generation system, so it is necessary to perform linear or nonlinear analysis on the above-mentioned collected information to obtain accurate grid-connected power information. For example, first of all, it is necessary to ensure the normal and stable operation of the distributed photovoltaic power generation system. When an accident trip occurs in the distributed photovoltaic power generation system, even if the environmental and climate indicators of the day are good, only a small amount of grid-connected power information may be generated. The grid-connected power in abnormal state is eliminated. At the same time, it should also be processed according to the grid connection mode of the distributed photovoltaic power generation system. If the power is connected to the grid, it is necessary to add the remaining power and the power used by the user to obtain the corresponding grid-connected power information.
也就是，参考分布式光伏发电系统与被预测的分布式光伏发电系统在并网方式、地理位置和环境条件要基本一致，并且如果是同一个分布式发电系统，也要考虑该发电系统的状态情况，对数据进行剔除或处理保证得到的并网电量信息具有代表性和准确性。That is to say, the reference distributed photovoltaic power generation system and the predicted distributed photovoltaic power generation system should be basically consistent in grid connection mode, geographical location and environmental conditions, and if it is the same distributed power generation system, the state of the power generation system should also be considered In some cases, the data is eliminated or processed to ensure that the obtained grid-connected power information is representative and accurate.
S12、获取与所述历史并网电量信息对应的历史光照信息；S12. Obtain historical illumination information corresponding to the historical grid-connected power information;
需要说明的是，通过天气预报系统采集分布式光伏发电系统的电站地点的天气信息，包括了气温、湿度、日照强度等，综合上述信息分析得到历史光照信息，比如同样的日照强度由于气温不同的影响也会使得最终的光照信息不同，所以可以根据气温、湿度、日照强度对光照信息的影响设定每个部分的权值，进行加权计算，得到准确的光照信息。It should be noted that the weather information of the power station site of the distributed photovoltaic power generation system is collected through the weather forecast system, including temperature, humidity, and sunshine intensity, etc., and the historical light information is obtained by analyzing the above information. The impact will also make the final lighting information different, so the weight of each part can be set according to the influence of temperature, humidity, and sunlight intensity on the lighting information, and weighted calculations can be performed to obtain accurate lighting information.
S13、生成所述历史光照信息与所述历史并网电量信息之间的并网电量数据曲线；S13. Generate a grid-connected power data curve between the historical illumination information and the historical grid-connected power information;
具体包括：Specifically include:
获取所述历史光照信息的光照时间与光照数据的对应关系；Obtain the corresponding relationship between the illumination time of the historical illumination information and the illumination data;
获取与所述光照时间对应的各个并网电量信息；Obtaining information on each grid-connected power quantity corresponding to the illumination time;
以所述光照数据为横轴，以所述各个并网电量信息为纵轴，绘制得到所述并网电量数据曲线。Taking the illumination data as the horizontal axis and the respective grid-connected power information as the vertical axis, draw the grid-connected power data curve.
S14、获取所述分布式光伏发电系统在目标时刻的光照信息，并根据所述并网电量曲线预测得到所述分布式光伏发电系统在目标时刻的并网电量。S14. Obtain the illumination information of the distributed photovoltaic power generation system at the target time, and predict the grid-connected power of the distributed photovoltaic power generation system at the target time according to the grid-connected power curve.
具体的包括：Specifically include:
获取所述分布式光伏发电系统所在地理位置信息；Obtain the geographic location information of the distributed photovoltaic power generation system;
根据所述地理位置信息获取所述分布式光伏发电系统在目标时刻的光照信息。Obtaining illumination information of the distributed photovoltaic power generation system at a target time according to the geographic location information.
采集电站装机容量信息，并且地理位置信息，根据地理位置信息调取当地分时天气预报，同时与分时电网电量信息做对比，得出该站点在不同光照条件下的并网电量数据曲线，采集天气预报系统未来天气数据，根据历史光照与并网电量数据曲线，预测未来该电站的发电情况。Collect the installed capacity information of the power station and the geographical location information, retrieve the local time-sharing weather forecast according to the geographical location information, and compare it with the time-sharing power grid power information to obtain the grid-connected power data curve of the site under different lighting conditions, and collect The future weather data of the weather forecast system can predict the future power generation of the power station according to the historical sunlight and grid-connected power data curve.
即每一个分布式光伏发电系统也就是每一个分布式光伏电站，从分布式光伏监控系统获取分时光照，从分布式光伏电量采集系统获取对应时段的并网电量，如果该电站的并网方式为全部电量并网，此时的并网电量就为发电量，以这种情况为例进行说明。此时以光照为横轴，以发电量为纵轴，绘制光照-发电量数据曲线。That is, each distributed photovoltaic power generation system, that is, each distributed photovoltaic power station, obtains time-sharing illumination from the distributed photovoltaic monitoring system, and obtains the grid-connected electricity of the corresponding period from the distributed photovoltaic power collection system. If the grid-connected mode of the power station In order to connect all the electricity to the grid, the grid-connected electricity at this time is the power generation. This situation is taken as an example for illustration. At this time, take the light as the horizontal axis and the power generation as the vertical axis to draw the light-power generation data curve.
这样每一个分布式光伏电站都有自己独立的数据曲线，作为光伏并网电量的预测依据。进行预测时，从天气预报系统采集光伏电站所在地理位置的光照信息，根据对应的光照-发电量曲线，预测该电站的发电量。In this way, each distributed photovoltaic power station has its own independent data curve, which serves as the basis for forecasting photovoltaic grid-connected electricity. When forecasting, the light information of the geographical location of the photovoltaic power station is collected from the weather forecast system, and the power generation of the power station is predicted according to the corresponding light-power generation curve.
具体的，还包括：Specifically, it also includes:
采集所述分布式光伏发电系统的发电总量信息；Collecting the total power generation information of the distributed photovoltaic power generation system;
根据所述发电总量信息预测所述分布式光伏发电系统的并网电量，得到第一预测值；Predicting the grid-connected electricity of the distributed photovoltaic power generation system according to the total power generation information to obtain a first predicted value;
通过所述第一预测值对在目标时刻的并网电量进行校正处理，得到目标并网电量预测值。The grid-connected power at the target time is corrected by the first predicted value to obtain the predicted value of the target grid-connected power.
采集获得分布式光伏发电系统的发电总量信息是为了能够分析该电站对电网整体的影响，这样可以为电网规划或调度部门提供数据依据，如果该部门需要对电网进行规划，可以采用发电总量信息对预测值进行校正，实现了多维度分析，使得预测结果更加准确，能够帮助电网部分提前安排规划和调度计划，为可能影响电网运行安全的因素提供早期预警。The purpose of collecting and obtaining the total power generation information of the distributed photovoltaic power generation system is to be able to analyze the impact of the power station on the overall power grid, which can provide data basis for the grid planning or dispatching department. If the department needs to plan the power grid, the total power generation can be used The information corrects the predicted value, realizes multi-dimensional analysis, makes the forecast result more accurate, can help the power grid part to arrange planning and dispatching plan in advance, and provide early warning for factors that may affect the safety of power grid operation.
通过本发明实施例一公开的技术方案，获取分布式光伏发电系统的历史并网电量信息，并获取对应的历史光照信息，然后绘制得到并网电量信息与光照信息的数据曲线，最终可以根据目标时刻的光照信息通过该数据曲线预测得到分布式光伏发电系统的并网电量。由于在本发明中是通过天气预报系统直接获取了分布式光伏发电系统的光照信息，而无需采用其他的环境信息硬件设备进行采集，实现了采集成本低，并且获取采集信息便捷的目的。同时通过光照与并网电量信息生成预测曲线，通过光照进行并网电量的预测有效地结合了环境因素对并网电量的影响，提高了对光伏并网电量预测的准确性。Through the technical solution disclosed in Embodiment 1 of the present invention, the historical grid-connected power information of the distributed photovoltaic power generation system is obtained, and the corresponding historical lighting information is obtained, and then the data curve of the grid-connected power information and the lighting information is drawn, and finally the target can be obtained. The light information at any time is predicted by the data curve to obtain the grid-connected electricity of the distributed photovoltaic power generation system. In the present invention, the illumination information of the distributed photovoltaic power generation system is directly obtained through the weather forecast system without using other environmental information hardware devices for collection, so the purpose of low collection cost and convenient collection of information is achieved. At the same time, the prediction curve is generated through the information of illumination and grid-connected electricity, and the prediction of grid-connected electricity through illumination effectively combines the influence of environmental factors on grid-connected electricity, and improves the accuracy of forecasting photovoltaic grid-connected electricity.
实施例二Embodiment two
与本发明实施例一开的分布式光伏并网电量预测方法相对应，本发明的实施例二还提供了一种分布式光伏并网电量预测系统，参见图3，包括：Corresponding to the method for forecasting distributed photovoltaic grid-connected power in Embodiment 1 of the present invention, Embodiment 2 of the present invention also provides a distributed photovoltaic grid-connected power forecasting system, see FIG. 3 , including:
第一获取模块1，用于获取分布式光伏发电系统的历史并网电量信息；The first acquisition module 1 is used to acquire the historical grid-connected electricity quantity information of the distributed photovoltaic power generation system;
第二获取模块2，用于获取与所述历史并网电量信息对应的历史光照信息；The second acquisition module 2 is configured to acquire historical illumination information corresponding to the historical grid-connected power information;
生成模块3，用于生成所述历史光照信息与所述历史并网电量信息之间的并网电量数据曲线；A generating module 3, configured to generate a grid-connected power data curve between the historical illumination information and the historical grid-connected power information;
预测模块4，用于获取所述分布式光伏发电系统在目标时刻的光照信息，并根据所述并网电量曲线预测得到所述分布式光伏发电系统在目标时刻的并网电量。The prediction module 4 is used to obtain the illumination information of the distributed photovoltaic power generation system at the target time, and predict the grid-connected power of the distributed photovoltaic power generation system at the target time according to the grid-connected power curve.
具体的，所述第一获取模块包括：Specifically, the first acquisition module includes:
第一采集单元，用于采集所述分布式光伏发电系统的实时信息，其中，所述实时信息包括电压、电流、功率和故障信息；The first collection unit is used to collect real-time information of the distributed photovoltaic power generation system, wherein the real-time information includes voltage, current, power and fault information;
第二采集单元，用于采集所述分布式光伏发电系统的历史并网电量数据；The second collection unit is used to collect historical grid-connected power data of the distributed photovoltaic power generation system;
第三采集单元，用于采集所述分布式发电系统的位置信息；a third collection unit, configured to collect location information of the distributed power generation system;
分析单元，用于根据所述分布式光伏发电系统的实时信息、所述历史并网电量数据和所述位置信息统计分析获得每个时间段的所述分布式光伏发电系统的历史并网电量信息。An analysis unit, configured to obtain the historical grid-connected power information of the distributed photovoltaic power generation system for each time period according to the real-time information of the distributed photovoltaic power generation system, the historical grid-connected power data and the statistical analysis of the location information .
对应的，所述生成模块包括：Correspondingly, the generating module includes:
第一获取单元，用于获取所述历史光照信息的光照时间与光照数据的对应关系；A first acquisition unit, configured to acquire the correspondence between the illumination time of the historical illumination information and the illumination data;
第二获取单元，用于获取与所述光照时间对应的各个并网电量信息；a second acquisition unit, configured to acquire each grid-connected power information corresponding to the illumination time;
绘制单元，用于以所述光照数据为横轴，以所述各个并网电量信息为纵轴，绘制得到所述并网电量数据曲线。The drawing unit is configured to draw the grid-connected power data curve with the illumination data as the horizontal axis and the respective grid-connected power information as the vertical axis.
相应的，还包括：Correspondingly, it also includes:
地理信息获取单元，用于获取所述分布式光伏发电系统所在地理位置信息；a geographic information acquisition unit, configured to acquire geographical location information of the distributed photovoltaic power generation system;
光照获取单元，用于根据所述地理位置信息获取所述分布式光伏发电系统在目标时刻的光照信息。The illumination acquiring unit is configured to acquire illumination information of the distributed photovoltaic power generation system at a target time according to the geographic location information.
具体的，还包括：Specifically, it also includes:
总电量采集模块，用于采集所述分布式光伏发电系统的发电总量信息；The total power collection module is used to collect the total power generation information of the distributed photovoltaic power generation system;
第一预测模块，用于根据所述发电总量信息预测所述分布式光伏发电系统的并网电量，得到第一预测值；The first prediction module is used to predict the grid-connected electricity of the distributed photovoltaic power generation system according to the total power generation information, and obtain a first prediction value;
校正模块，用于通过所述第一预测值对在目标时刻的并网电量进行校正处理，得到目标并网电量预测值。A correction module, configured to perform correction processing on the grid-connected electricity at the target time by using the first predicted value, so as to obtain a target predicted value of grid-connected electricity.
在本发明的实施例二中，获取分布式光伏发电系统的历史并网电量信息，并获取对应的历史光照信息，然后绘制得到并网电量信息与光照信息的数据曲线，最终可以根据目标时刻的光照信息通过该数据曲线预测得到分布式光伏发电系统的并网电量。由于在本发明中是通过天气预报系统直接获取了分布式光伏发电系统的光照信息，而无需采用其他的环境信息硬件设备进行采集，实现了采集成本低，并且获取采集信息便捷的目的。同时通过光照与并网电量信息生成预测曲线，通过光照进行并网电量的预测有效地结合了环境因素对并网电量的影响，提高了对光伏并网电量预测的准确性。In the second embodiment of the present invention, the historical grid-connected power information of the distributed photovoltaic power generation system is obtained, and the corresponding historical lighting information is obtained, and then the data curve of the grid-connected power information and the lighting information is drawn, and finally according to the target time The illumination information is predicted by the data curve to obtain the grid-connected electricity of the distributed photovoltaic power generation system. In the present invention, the illumination information of the distributed photovoltaic power generation system is directly obtained through the weather forecast system without using other environmental information hardware devices for collection, so the purpose of low collection cost and convenient collection of information is achieved. At the same time, the prediction curve is generated through the information of illumination and grid-connected electricity, and the prediction of grid-connected electricity through illumination effectively combines the influence of environmental factors on grid-connected electricity, and improves the accuracy of forecasting photovoltaic grid-connected electricity.
本说明书中各个实施例采用递进的方式描述，每个实施例重点说明的都是与其他实施例的不同之处，各个实施例之间相同相似部分互相参见即可。对于实施例公开的装置而言，由于其与实施例公开的方法相对应，所以描述的比较简单，相关之处参见方法部分说明即可。Each embodiment in this specification is described in a progressive manner, each embodiment focuses on the difference from other embodiments, and the same and similar parts of each embodiment can be referred to each other. As for the device disclosed in the embodiment, since it corresponds to the method disclosed in the embodiment, the description is relatively simple, and for the related information, please refer to the description of the method part.
对所公开的实施例的上述说明，使本领域专业技术人员能够实现或使用本发明。对这些实施例的多种修改对本领域的专业技术人员来说将是显而易见的，本文中所定义的一般原理可以在不脱离本发明的精神或范围的情况下，在其它实施例中实现。因此，本发明将不会被限制于本文所示的这些实施例，而是要符合与本文所公开的原理和新颖特点相一致的最宽的范围。The above description of the disclosed embodiments is provided to enable any person skilled in the art to make or use the invention. Various modifications to these embodiments will be readily apparent to those skilled in the art, and the general principles defined herein may be implemented in other embodiments without departing from the spirit or scope of the invention. Therefore, the present invention will not be limited to the embodiments shown herein, but is to be accorded the widest scope consistent with the principles and novel features disclosed herein.
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