CN107423915B - Household electric heating load adjustability assessment method based on numerical weather forecast - Google Patents

Household electric heating load adjustability assessment method based on numerical weather forecast Download PDF

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CN107423915B
CN107423915B CN201710664114.XA CN201710664114A CN107423915B CN 107423915 B CN107423915 B CN 107423915B CN 201710664114 A CN201710664114 A CN 201710664114A CN 107423915 B CN107423915 B CN 107423915B
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power
control
electric heating
temperature
regulation
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CN107423915A (en
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穆钢
黄亚峰
严干贵
朱玉杰
张闯
陈剑
马建
韩瑜
毕大伟
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Northeast Electric Power University
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Northeast Dianli University
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    • GPHYSICS
    • G06COMPUTING; CALCULATING; COUNTING
    • G06QDATA PROCESSING SYSTEMS OR METHODS, SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL, SUPERVISORY OR FORECASTING PURPOSES; SYSTEMS OR METHODS SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL, SUPERVISORY OR FORECASTING PURPOSES, NOT OTHERWISE PROVIDED FOR
    • G06Q10/00Administration; Management
    • G06Q10/06Resources, workflows, human or project management, e.g. organising, planning, scheduling or allocating time, human or machine resources; Enterprise planning; Organisational models
    • G06Q10/063Operations research or analysis
    • G06Q10/0639Performance analysis
    • G06Q10/06393Score-carding, benchmarking or key performance indicator [KPI] analysis
    • GPHYSICS
    • G06COMPUTING; CALCULATING; COUNTING
    • G06FELECTRIC DIGITAL DATA PROCESSING
    • G06F30/00Computer-aided design [CAD]
    • G06F30/20Design optimisation, verification or simulation
    • GPHYSICS
    • G06COMPUTING; CALCULATING; COUNTING
    • G06QDATA PROCESSING SYSTEMS OR METHODS, SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL, SUPERVISORY OR FORECASTING PURPOSES; SYSTEMS OR METHODS SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL, SUPERVISORY OR FORECASTING PURPOSES, NOT OTHERWISE PROVIDED FOR
    • G06Q50/00Systems or methods specially adapted for specific business sectors, e.g. utilities or tourism
    • G06Q50/06Electricity, gas or water supply
    • GPHYSICS
    • G06COMPUTING; CALCULATING; COUNTING
    • G06QDATA PROCESSING SYSTEMS OR METHODS, SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL, SUPERVISORY OR FORECASTING PURPOSES; SYSTEMS OR METHODS SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL, SUPERVISORY OR FORECASTING PURPOSES, NOT OTHERWISE PROVIDED FOR
    • G06Q50/00Systems or methods specially adapted for specific business sectors, e.g. utilities or tourism
    • G06Q50/10Services
    • G06Q50/26Government or public services
    • GPHYSICS
    • G06COMPUTING; CALCULATING; COUNTING
    • G06FELECTRIC DIGITAL DATA PROCESSING
    • G06F2119/00Details relating to the type or aim of the analysis or the optimisation
    • G06F2119/08Thermal analysis or thermal optimisation

Abstract

The invention relates to a method for evaluating the adjustable capacity of household electric heating load based on numerical weather forecast, which is characterized in that three quantitative indexes for representing the adjustable capacity of load are defined firstly, including the implementable adjustable power PcontrolFor a time t that can be maintained for a given regulated powercontrolAnd the electric quantity W which can be regulated and controlled during the power regulation periodcontrol. The load adjustability of the household electric heating in a temperature interval meeting human body comfort is evaluated by introducing a certain period of numerical weather forecast temperature parameter through a household electric heating thermal dynamic model, and an important reference basis is provided for the electric heating users to participate in power grid load adjustment. Has the advantages of scientific and reasonable structure, strong applicability, good effect and the like.

Description

Household electric heating load adjustability assessment method based on numerical weather forecast
Technical Field
The invention relates to the field of load adjusting capacity, in particular to a household electric heating load adjusting capacity evaluation method based on numerical weather forecast.
Background
The household electric heating scale application is gradually promoted in the conditioned area, the low carbonization of the electric energy supply is promoted, meanwhile, the change of the building energy supply is caused by the change of the building indoor temperature regulation range under the condition of meeting the requirement of temperature comfort due to the thermal inertia (heat storage and heat conduction) of the heating building wall and the thermal inertia (hysteresis of temperature change) of the internal environment, and the energy utilization demand elasticity is realized. When the amount and scale of the household electric heating load are considerable, the elasticity of the energy demand of the electric heating load is utilized to improve the power grid regulation capacity. The effective acquisition of the load adjustability of household electric heating in a certain period of time in the future is an important premise for realizing the participation of the household electric heating in power grid adjustment. On this background, the invention provides a method for evaluating the adjustability of household electric heating load based on numerical weather forecast.
Disclosure of Invention
The invention aims to provide a scientific and reasonable evaluation method for the household electric heating load adjustability based on numerical weather forecast, which has strong applicability and good effect.
The technical scheme adopted for realizing the purpose of the invention is that the method for evaluating the load adjustability of the household electric heating based on the numerical weather forecast is characterized by comprising the following steps of firstly defining an index for representing the load adjustability, introducing a temperature parameter of the numerical weather forecast in a certain period of time through an electric heating thermal dynamic model, and evaluating the load adjustability of the household electric heating in a temperature interval meeting the comfort of a human body, wherein the method specifically comprises the following steps:
1) load adjustability index and definition thereof
PcontrolFor the power regulation implemented, tcontrolTo maintain the value of the regulation power PcontrolDuration of time, WcontrolThe electric quantity which can be regulated and controlled in the power regulation time period;
2) household electric heating transient heat balance relation model
The mathematical model of transient heat balance relationship of electric heating is expressed as formula (1)
In formula (1): pheatFor heating power, V is the volume of space in the building, S is the external surface area of the building, K is the overall thermal conductivity of the external surface of the building, CairIs the specific heat capacity of air, ρairIn order to be the density of the air,is the rate of change of indoor temperature, TinIs the indoor temperature, ToutIs the outdoor temperature;
3) load regulation assessment
(1) Giving the building external surface area S, the building internal space volume V, the building external surface comprehensive heat conductivity coefficient K and the air specific heat capacity C of a userairAir density rho and maximum heating power P of household electric heating configurationsnDetermining the indoor temperature adjustment range as [ T ]down,Tup];
(2) Get and decide indoor temperature TinFor the initial temperature T at the evaluation of the load-regulating capacity0Selecting the outdoor temperature ToutFor the temperature T of the time interval corresponding to the numerical weather forecastk
(3) Replacing the data obtained in the step 3) in the step 1 and the step 2 with an indoor electric heating transient heat balance relation model formula 1, enabling the indoor temperature change rate to be 0, and determining a power value P for maintaining the current indoor temperature0
(4) Evaluating the power P of the electric heating systemcontrolRange, power-up regulation range of [0, Psn-P0]The power down regulation range is [ -P ]0,0];
(5) Evaluating the time t that can be sustained for maintaining a given regulated powercontrolAccording to the specific regulation power P determined in step 3) (4)controlPerforming simulation calculation through an electric heating thermal dynamic model, if Pcontrol>0, corresponding to the temperature rise process when the indoor temperature TinUp to TupIs stopped when Pcontrol<0, corresponding to the temperature drop process, when the indoor temperature T isinDown to TdownThe time is cut off, and the time that the temperature can be continuously maintained in the thermal comfort interval when the power is adjusted is obtained as tcontrol
(6) Evaluating the electric quantity W which can be regulated and controlled during the power regulation periodcontrolAccording to the specific regulation power P determined in step 3) (4)controlAnd the time t obtained in step 3) (5)controlBy the energy calculation formula (2),
obtaining the regulation and control electric quantity W realized in the process of power regulationcontrol
The method for evaluating the load adjustability of the household electric heating based on the numerical weather forecast comprises the steps of firstly defining an index representing the load adjustability, introducing a temperature parameter of the numerical weather forecast in a certain time period through an electric heating thermal dynamic model, and evaluating the load adjustability of the household electric heating in a temperature interval meeting the comfort of a human body.
Drawings
FIG. 1 is a flow chart of a method for evaluating the adjustability of a household electric heating load based on numerical weather forecast;
FIG. 2 is a graph of the trend of indoor temperature over time during power regulation;
FIG. 3 is a graph of power regulation for a duration of time;
fig. 4 is a graph showing the change trend of the indoor temperature with time under different power regulations.
Detailed Description
Embodiments of the method for estimating the adjustability of a heating load for a user based on a numerical weather forecast according to the present invention will be described in further detail with reference to the accompanying drawings.
Referring to fig. 1, the method for evaluating the load adjustability of household electric heating based on numerical weather forecast according to the present invention includes the steps of firstly defining an index representing the load adjustability, introducing a temperature parameter of the numerical weather forecast at a certain time period through an electric heating thermodynamic model, and evaluating the load adjustability of household electric heating in a temperature interval satisfying human comfort, specifically including the following contents:
1) load adjustability index and definition thereof
PcontrolFor the power regulation implemented, tcontrolTo maintain the value of the regulation power PcontrolDuration of time, WcontrolThe electric quantity which can be regulated and controlled in the power regulation time period;
2) household electric heating transient heat balance relation model
The mathematical model of transient heat balance relationship of electric heating is expressed as formula (1)
In formula (1): pheatFor heating power, V is the volume of space in the building, S is the external surface area of the building, K is the overall thermal conductivity of the external surface of the building, CairIs the specific heat capacity of air, ρairIn order to be the density of the air,is the rate of change of indoor temperature, TinIs the indoor temperature, ToutIs the outdoor temperature;
3) load regulation capability assessment
(1) Giving the building external surface area S, the building internal space volume V, the building external surface comprehensive heat conductivity coefficient K and the air specific heat capacity C of a userairAir density rho and maximum heating power P of household electric heating configurationsnDetermining the indoor temperature adjustment range as [ T ]down,Tup];
(2) Get and decide indoor temperature TinFor the initial temperature T at the evaluation of the load-regulating capacity0Selecting the outdoor temperature ToutFor the temperature T of the time interval corresponding to the numerical weather forecastk
(3) Replacing the data obtained in the step 3) in the step 1 and the step 2 with an indoor electric heating transient heat balance relation model formula 1, enabling the indoor temperature change rate to be 0, and determining a power value P for maintaining the current indoor temperature0
(4) Evaluating the power P of the electric heating systemcontrolRange, power-up regulation range of [0, Psn-P0]The power down regulation range is [ -P ]0,0];
(5) Evaluating the time t that can be sustained for maintaining a given regulated powercontrolReferring to fig. 2, the specific control power P determined according to (4) of step 3)controlPerforming simulation calculation through an electric heating thermal dynamic model, if Pcontrol>0, corresponding to the temperature rise process when the indoor temperature TinUp to TupIs stopped when Pcontrol<0, corresponding to the temperature drop process, when the indoor temperature T isinDown to TdownThe time is cut off, and the time that the temperature can be continuously maintained in the thermal comfort interval when the power is adjusted is obtained as tcontrol
(6) Evaluating the electric quantity W which can be regulated and controlled during the power regulation periodcontrolReferring to fig. 3, the specific control power P determined according to (4) of step 3)controlAnd the time t obtained in step 3) (5)controlBy the energy calculation formula (2),
obtaining the regulation and control electric quantity W realized in the process of power regulationcontrol
Example (b):
maximum heating power P with a certain configurationsnIs 7.2kW (reduced to 60W/m)2) 120m of2The home user performs an example of electric heating load regulation capability evaluation as an example.
(1) The parameters of the building are shown in Table 1, and considering that the temperature range of human thermal comfort is 18-22 ℃, the indoor temperature adjusting range [ T ] in the present exampledown,Tup]Taking the lead sulfate at 18 ℃, 22 DEG C]。
(2) The initial temperature T is determined020 deg.C, the selected outdoor temperature ToutFor the temperature T of the time interval corresponding to the numerical weather forecastk=-15℃。
(3) The related parameters are substituted into an electric heating transient heat balance relation model to ensure the indoor temperature change rateDetermining a power value P for maintaining the current indoor temperature0=4.1kW。
(4) Determining the adjustable power P for heatingcontrolRange, power up regulation range [0, 3.1kW]The downward power regulation range is [ -4.1kW, 0];
(5) And (6) specifying specific PcontrolValue. + -. 10% Psn、±20%Psn、±30%PsnThe simulation was performed, and the obtained trend of the indoor temperature with time under different power control is shown in fig. 4. According to the temperature regulation direction, dividing the corresponding power into positive regulation and negative regulation, wherein the positive regulation is specific to PcontrolAnd corresponding tcontrol,WcontrolThe output results are shown in table 2, and the negative regulation results are shown in table 3.
TABLE 1 building parameter table
Table 2 statistical table of forward regulation capacity of electric heating load
TABLE 3 statistical table for negative regulation capacity of electric heating load
According to the given evaluation calculation example, as can be seen from fig. 4, table 2 and table 3, the maximum long power of the electric heating for upward and downward adjustment is 43% and 57% of the maximum rated power; when the determined adjusting power is the maximum, the continuous adjustable time can last for at least 3min, and if the adjusting power is relatively small, the continuous time is longer; compared with the power regulation, the adjustable electric quantity can reach 18% in a short time. Therefore, the load of large-scale household heating is involved in the load regulation of the power grid, and the potential is huge.
The above examples also illustrate the feasibility and effectiveness of the method for evaluating the adjustability of the household electric heating load based on the numerical weather forecast.

Claims (1)

1. A method for evaluating the load adjustability of household electric heating based on numerical weather forecast is characterized by firstly defining an index representing the load adjustability, introducing a temperature parameter of the numerical weather forecast in a certain time period through an electric heating thermal dynamic model, and evaluating the load adjustability of the household electric heating in a temperature interval meeting the comfort of a human body, and specifically comprises the following contents:
1) load adjustability index and definition thereof
PcontrolFor the power regulation implemented, tcontrolTo maintain the value of the regulation power PcontrolDuration of time, WcontrolThe electric quantity which can be regulated and controlled in the power regulation time period;
2) household electric heating transient heat balance relation model
The mathematical model of transient heat balance relationship of electric heating is expressed as formula (1)
In formula (1): pheatFor heating power, V is the volume of space in the building, S is the external surface area of the building, K is the overall thermal conductivity of the external surface of the building, CairIs the specific heat capacity of air, ρairIn order to be the density of the air,is the rate of change of indoor temperature, TinIs the indoor temperature, ToutIs the outdoor temperature;
3) load regulation capability assessment
(1) Giving the building external surface area S, the building internal space volume V, the building external surface comprehensive heat conductivity coefficient K and the air specific heat capacity C of a userairAir density ρairMaximum heating power P configured with household electric heatingsnDetermining the indoor temperature adjustment range as [ T ]down,Tup];
(2) Get and decide indoor temperature TinFor the initial temperature T at the evaluation of the load-regulating capacity0Selecting the outdoor temperature ToutFor the temperature T of the time interval corresponding to the numerical weather forecastk
(3) Replacing the data obtained in the step 3) in the step 1 and the step 2 with an indoor electric heating transient heat balance relation model formula 1, enabling the indoor temperature change rate to be 0, and determining a power value P for maintaining the current indoor temperature0
(4) Evaluating the power P of the electric heating systemcontrolRange, power-up regulation range of [0, Psn-P0]The power down regulation range is [ -P ]0,0];
(5) Evaluating the time t that can be sustained for maintaining a given regulated powercontrolAccording to the specific regulation power P determined in step 3) (4)controlPerforming simulation calculation through an electric heating thermal dynamic model, if Pcontrol>0, corresponding to the temperature rise process when the indoor temperature TinUp to TupIs stopped when Pcontrol<0, corresponding to the temperature drop process, when the indoor temperature T isinDown to TdownThe time is cut off, and the time that the temperature can be continuously maintained in the thermal comfort interval when the power is adjusted is obtained as tcontrol
(6) Evaluating the electric quantity W which can be regulated and controlled during the power regulation periodcontrolAccording to the specific regulation power P determined in step 3) (4)controlAnd the time t obtained in step 3) (5)controlBy the energy calculation formula (2),
obtaining the regulation and control electric quantity W realized in the process of power regulationcontrol
CN201710664114.XA 2017-08-07 2017-08-07 Household electric heating load adjustability assessment method based on numerical weather forecast Active CN107423915B (en)

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CN110094845B (en) * 2019-05-24 2021-04-23 广东电网有限责任公司 Output control method, device and equipment of indoor temperature adjusting equipment

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