CN106990216B - A kind of shallow lake wawter bloom risk analysis early warning system and its analysis and early warning method - Google Patents

A kind of shallow lake wawter bloom risk analysis early warning system and its analysis and early warning method Download PDF

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CN106990216B
CN106990216B CN201710211751.1A CN201710211751A CN106990216B CN 106990216 B CN106990216 B CN 106990216B CN 201710211751 A CN201710211751 A CN 201710211751A CN 106990216 B CN106990216 B CN 106990216B
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wawter bloom
risk
shallow lake
factor
monitoring
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CN106990216A (en
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毛劲乔
胡腾飞
戴会超
陈韦钰
吴先明
田明明
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Hohai University HHU
China Three Gorges Corp
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    • GPHYSICS
    • G01MEASURING; TESTING
    • G01NINVESTIGATING OR ANALYSING MATERIALS BY DETERMINING THEIR CHEMICAL OR PHYSICAL PROPERTIES
    • G01N33/00Investigating or analysing materials by specific methods not covered by groups G01N1/00 - G01N31/00
    • G01N33/18Water
    • GPHYSICS
    • G01MEASURING; TESTING
    • G01DMEASURING NOT SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR A SPECIFIC VARIABLE; ARRANGEMENTS FOR MEASURING TWO OR MORE VARIABLES NOT COVERED IN A SINGLE OTHER SUBCLASS; TARIFF METERING APPARATUS; MEASURING OR TESTING NOT OTHERWISE PROVIDED FOR
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    • G01D21/02Measuring two or more variables by means not covered by a single other subclass

Abstract

The present invention discloses a kind of shallow lake wawter bloom risk analysis early warning system and its analysis and early warning method, system includes data collection module and data-mining module, data collection module is made of routine monitoring device, acoustic telemetry device and auxiliary device, and data-mining module is suitable for that interval determination unit, driven factor independence effect quantifying unit, environment drive mode analysis comparing unit and wawter bloom risk assessment unit form by driven factor recognition unit, driven factor.The present invention avoids the hardware facility that traditional environment monitoring method faces and lays problem on a large scale while realizing the monitoring of environmental factor high spatial resolution, bloom prealarming wrong report, rate of failing to report are low, can serve the diaster prevention and control of shallow lake wawter bloom and water resources management.

Description

A kind of shallow lake wawter bloom risk analysis early warning system and its analysis and early warning method
Technical field
The invention belongs to water environment protection technical fields, and in particular to a kind of shallow lake wawter bloom risk analysis early warning system And its analysis and early warning method.
Background technique
In the world, there is different degrees of Characteristics of eutrophication, breakout of water bloom frequency in more and more shallow lakes Secondary and scale is all increasing, which has become a focus of social concerns.Water eutrophication refers to that water body is included The excessively high state of nutrient concentrations, be easy to cause water plant fast-growth, water quality deterioration and aquatic ecosystem balance broken It is bad.Phytoplankton in eutrophic lake fast-growth and gathers under optimum conditions, i.e. generation wawter bloom phenomenon.Breakout of water bloom Negative effect be that academia and masses are known, including water supply crisis, water color-changing, water hypoxia and fish death etc..
Phytoplankton growth is related to physics and chemokines to the satisfaction degree of its psychological need, is also captured by zooplankter It influences, thus breakout of water bloom can be considered response of the algae to water body environment.However the continuous change of lake local environment gives birth to it The influence of state system is more strong.On the one hand, mankind's activity significantly increase into water body in lake Limiting nutrient salt (such as nitrogen, Phosphorus etc.) flux, thus for eliminate algae fast-growth limitation hide the foreshadowing.On the other hand, blue algae growth speed under hot conditions Rate is increased, the vertical turbulent fluctuation of water body is suppressed and water body viscosity is weakened, and creates advantage for blue algae growth, Therefore global warming is likely to aggravate the cyanobacterial bloom harm of eutrophic lake.
Basic environment information needed for shallow lake bloom prealarming is obtained often through two kinds of main paths at present, first is that defending Star image inverting, second is that water body fixed point monitoring.The former is more convenient for data acquisition angle, but existing inversion method has Greatly uncertain, the environmental factor data obtained are with large error;Meanwhile satellite image inverting is also by adverse weather The very big restriction of (yin, rain, snow etc.).In general precision is higher for water body fixed point monitoring, comparatively data acquisition also more may be used It leans on, stablize, but this method necessarily leads to the intensive of infrastructure in the case where meeting the needs of environmental factor high spatial resolution monitoring Laying problem brings high environmental monitoring cost.In method for early warning selection, the water quality model of Kernel-based methods has preferable Theoretical basis, but face in practical application calculating time-consuming, the problems such as parameter is difficult to estimate;Data-driven method can be with Realize the efficient early warning of wawter bloom risk, but the result obtained in extreme circumstances is often unsatisfactory.In consideration of it, being directed to shallow lake It is aobvious to provide a kind of new shallow lake wawter bloom risk analysis early warning system and method for the eutrophication and wawter bloom problem to become increasingly conspicuous It obtains especially urgent.
Summary of the invention
Goal of the invention: it is an object of the invention to solve the deficiencies in the prior art, a kind of shallow lake water is provided Magnificent risk analysis early warning system and its analysis and early warning method.
Technical solution: the invention discloses a kind of shallow lake wawter bloom risk analysis early warning systems, including tidal data recovering mould Block (1) and data-mining module (2);The data collection module (1) includes routine monitoring device (11), acoustic telemetry device (12) and auxiliary device (13);The routine monitoring device (11) includes floating website and stake formula website, and common real-time monitoring is shallow Water lake physics related with algal grown and breakout of water bloom and Biochemical Information, the floating website are to be arranged in shallow lake etc. The buoy on spacing square array vertex, buoy bottom are equipped with multi-parameter water quality sensor, and stake formula website, which refers to, is arranged in shallow water The square array vertex of 2 times of floating website spacing and it is fixed on the pile body on lakebed in lake, pile body underwater portion is equipped with more Parameter water quality sensor and chlorophyll a sensor, and pile body above water is equipped with multi-parameter meteorological sensor, photosynthetic effective spoke Penetrate sensor;The acoustic telemetry device (12) includes acoustics label carrier, acoustics label and hydrophone, real-time monitoring acoustics mark Present position multiple water body physical parameter related with algal grown and breakout of water bloom is signed, acoustics label carrier is shallow lake fish Class, acoustics label allocated water quality sensor are simultaneously fixed on the dorsal fin of acoustics label carrier using nylon cable tie, and acoustics label makes Its identity identification information and physical parameter monitoring result are periodically sent to surrounding water with ultrasonic wave, hydrophone is arranged in At each floating website and stake formula website, hydrophone is directed downward and submerges in water, transmitted by real-time reception ambient acoustic label Information;The auxiliary device (13) includes storage equipment and communication apparatus, is arranged in each floating website and stake formula website Place, storage equipment save the monitoring data of routine monitoring device (11) and acoustics telemetering equipment (12), and communication apparatus realizes storage Data transmission between equipment and data-mining module (2);The data-mining module (2) is by driven factor recognition unit (21), driven factor is suitable for interval determination unit (22), driven factor independence effect quantifying unit (23), environment drive mode point Analyse comparing unit (24) and wawter bloom risk assessment unit (25) composition;The driven factor recognition unit (21) is according to shallow lake Environmental factor Historical Monitoring data filter out the component environment factor for being significantly associated with chlorophyll-a concentration and wawter bloom being driven to occur As driven factor;The driven factor, which is suitable for that interval determination unit (22) are determining, promotes chlorophyll-a concentration to be in each of a high position The variation range of a driven factor is as respective suitable section;The driven factor independence effect quantifying unit (23) is at other In the case that driven factor is defined in respectively suitable section, quantization chlorophyll-a concentration rings the independence that each driven factor changes It answers;Environment drive mode analysis comparing unit (24) the difference calibration, which considers that driven factor occurs to add up on wawter bloom, to be influenced, tires out Multiply influence or combined influence three kinds of wawter bloom risk models and respective critical risk value, provide optimal wawter bloom risk more afterwards Model and its critical risk value;The wawter bloom risk assessment unit (25) combines driven factor real-time monitoring information and optimal wawter bloom Risk model show that shallow lake current environment is lauched the raw risk distribution of grey hair, is greater than critical risk value in wawter bloom occurrence risk In the case of to lake management department carry out bloom prealarming.
Further, the acoustics label in the acoustic telemetry device (12) is positioned using Long baselines location method.
The invention also discloses a kind of analysis and early warning methods of shallow lake wawter bloom risk analysis early warning system, specifically include Following steps:
(1) routine monitoring device (11) the real-time monitoring shallow lake of data collection module (1) and algal grown and wawter bloom Break out related physics and Biochemical Information;Acoustic telemetry device (12) carries out each acoustics label being dispersed in shallow lake The multiple water body physical parameter of acoustics label monitoring is positioned and received in real time;Auxiliary device (13) by routine monitoring device (11) and Monitoring information acquired in acoustic telemetry device (12) is saved to storage equipment;
(2) data-mining module (2) calls shallow lake environmental factor Historical Monitoring data, constructs shallow lake wawter bloom Risk model executes as follows:
(a) driven factor recognition unit (21) from the storage equipment of data collection module (1) transfer a formula website from had Environmental factor Historical Monitoring data;
(b) driven factor recognition unit (21) is based on Historical Monitoring data, is filtered out using inclined mutual information method green with leaf Plain a concentration is significantly associated with and drives the component environment factor occurred as driven factor;
(c) driven factor is suitable for that interval determination unit (22) are picked out from Historical Monitoring data completely using orthogonal trial The driven factor horizontal combination of sufficient orthogonality show that chlorophyll-a concentration changes with single driven factor level using range analysis Rule, and then determine the variation range for promoting chlorophyll-a concentration to be in high-order each driven factor as respective Suitable Area Between;
(d) driven factor independence effect quantifying unit (23) is the case where other driven factors are defined in respectively suitable section Under, quantify the separate responses that chlorophyll-a concentration changes each driven factor;
(e) environment drive mode analysis comparing unit (24) is in driven factor independence effect quantifying unit (23) provided letter On the basis of breath, using evolution algorithm, calibration considers that driven factor occurs cumulative to influence, tired multiply influence or synthesis on wawter bloom respectively The three kinds of wawter bloom risk models influenced and respective critical risk value are to guarantee wawter bloom occurs/does not occur for each model prediction Accuracy rate highest finally provides optimal wawter bloom risk model and its corresponding critical risk value after more respective accuracy rate;
(3) the wawter bloom risk assessment unit (25) of data-mining module (2) calls shallow lake driven factor real-time monitoring Information carries out the risk analysis of shallow lake wawter bloom and early warning, executes as follows:
(A) routine monitoring device (11) and acoustics telemetering equipment (12) are transferred from the storage equipment of data collection module (1) Driven factor Real-time Monitoring Data;
(B) use Kriging regression algorithm by Real-time Monitoring Data space interpolation to entire lake range;
(C) it is calculated based on the optimal wawter bloom risk model that environment drive mode analysis comparing unit (24) provides and obtains shallow water Lake current environment is lauched the raw risk distribution of grey hair, is prediction hair by the region recognition that wawter bloom occurrence risk is greater than critical risk value Unboiled water China region;
(D) if current predictive occurs wawter bloom region and exists, shallow lake wawter bloom occurrence risk is distributed and predicts to occur It is issued to lake management department in wawter bloom region.
The utility model has the advantages that the present invention avoids traditional environment monitoring side while realizing the monitoring of environmental factor high spatial resolution The hardware facility that method faces lays problem on a large scale, and bloom prealarming wrong report, rate of failing to report are low, can serve shallow lake wawter bloom disaster Prevention and treatment and water resources management.
Detailed description of the invention
Fig. 1 is system structure diagram of the invention;
Fig. 2 is method flow schematic diagram of the invention;
Fig. 3 is the arrangement of routine monitoring device and acoustics telemetering equipment in embodiment 1;
Fig. 4 is that wawter bloom region occurs for the distribution of wawter bloom occurrence risk and prediction in embodiment 2.
Specific embodiment
Technical solution of the present invention is described in detail below, but protection scope of the present invention is not limited to the reality Apply example.
Embodiment 1:
A kind of shallow lake wawter bloom risk analysis early warning system of the present embodiment, as shown in Figure 1, by data collection module 1 It is formed with data-mining module 2.
First part: data collection module 1
Data collection module 1 is made of routine monitoring device 11, acoustic telemetry device 12 and auxiliary device 13;
(1) as shown in figure 3, routine monitoring device 11 include floating website and stake formula website, real-time monitoring shallow lake with Algal grown and the related physics of breakout of water bloom, Biochemical Information;Wherein, floating website is to be arranged in shallow lake equidistant side The buoy on shape array vertex, buoy bottom are equipped with GDYS-201M multiparameter water quality analyzer;Stake formula website is to be arranged in shallow water The square array vertex of 2 times of floating website spacing and it is fixed on the pile body on lakebed in lake, pile body underwater portion is equipped with GDYS-201M multiparameter water quality analyzer, AP-700-SDI chlorophyll a sensor, above water is equipped with IIES-1128 joins more Number meteorological sensor, HAD-WHY light together valid radiation sensor.
(2) acoustic telemetry device 12 includes acoustics label carrier, acoustics label and hydrophone, real-time monitoring acoustics label Present position multiple water body physical parameter related with algal grown and breakout of water bloom;Acoustics label carrier therein is shallow water lake Moor fish;Acoustics label (Vemco Products) allocated water quality sensor is simultaneously fixed on acoustics label carrier using nylon cable tie Dorsal fin on;Hydrophone (Vemco Products) is mounted on each floating website and stake formula website, is directed downward and is submerged water In.
(3) auxiliary device 13 includes storage equipment and communication apparatus, is arranged at each floating website and stake formula website, The monitoring data that equipment saves routine monitoring device 11 and acoustics telemetering equipment 12 are stored, communication apparatus realizes storage equipment sum number According to the data transmission excavated between module 2.
Second part: data-mining module 2
Data-mining module 2 is suitable for interval determination unit 22, driven factor by driven factor recognition unit 21, driven factor Independence effect quantifying unit 23, environment drive mode analysis comparing unit 24 and wawter bloom risk assessment unit 25 form, and are used for structure Build shallow lake wawter bloom risk model.
(1) driven factor recognition unit 21 is according to shallow lake environmental factor Historical Monitoring data, filters out and chlorophyll A concentration is significantly associated with and drives the component environment factor of wawter bloom generation as driven factor;
(2) driven factor be suitable for interval determination unit 22 determine promote chlorophyll-a concentration be in high-order each driving because The variation range of son is as respective suitable section
(3) driven factor independence effect quantifying unit 33 is in the case where other driven factors are in respectively suitable section The response that quantization chlorophyll-a concentration changes each driven factor;
(4) environment drive mode analysis comparing unit 24 difference calibration consideration driven factor occurs to add up on wawter bloom influences, Tired three kinds of wawter bloom risk models for multiplying influence or combined influence and respective critical risk value, provide optimal wawter bloom wind more afterwards Dangerous model and its critical risk value.
(5) wawter bloom risk assessment unit 25 combines driven factor real-time monitoring information and optimal wawter bloom risk model to obtain Shallow lake current environment is lauched the raw risk distribution of grey hair, in the case where wawter bloom occurrence risk is greater than critical risk value to lake Administrative department carries out bloom prealarming.
Embodiment 2:
Shallow lake wawter bloom risk analysis method for early warning in the present embodiment includes the following steps into as shown in Figure 2:
(1) the routine monitoring device 11 of data collection module 1 includes floating website and stake formula website, real-time monitoring shallow water Lake physics related with algal grown and breakout of water bloom, Biochemical Information;Floating website is to be arranged in shallow lake equidistantly The buoy on square array vertex, stake formula website are to be arranged in the square array vertex of 2 times of floating website spacing in shallow lake simultaneously The pile body being fixed on lakebed;Acoustic telemetry device 12 positions each acoustics label being dispersed in shallow lake in real time And receive the multiple water body physical parameter of acoustics label monitoring;Auxiliary device 13 is by routine monitoring device 11 and acoustics telemetering equipment Monitoring information acquired in 12 is saved to storage equipment;
(2) data-mining module 2 calls shallow lake environmental factor Historical Monitoring data, constructs shallow lake wawter bloom wind Dangerous model executes as follows:
Had environmental factor Historical Monitoring data from transferring a formula website from the storage equipment of data collection module 1;
Driven factor recognition unit 21 is based on Historical Monitoring data, is filtered out using inclined mutual information method dense with chlorophyll a The component environment factor that the significant association of degree and driving occur is as driven factor;
Driven factor is suitable for that interval determination unit 22 is picking out satisfaction using orthogonal trial just from Historical Monitoring data The driven factor horizontal combination for the property handed over, using range analysis obtain chlorophyll-a concentration with the horizontal changing rule of single driven factor, And then determine the variation range for promoting chlorophyll-a concentration to be in high-order each driven factor as respective suitable section;
Driven factor independence effect quantifying unit 23 is in the case where other driven factors are defined in respectively suitable section, amount Change the separate responses that chlorophyll-a concentration changes each driven factor;
Environment drive mode analyzes comparing unit 24 in the base of the provided information of driven factor independence effect quantifying unit 23 On plinth, using evolution algorithm respectively calibration consider driven factor on wawter bloom occur it is cumulative influence, tired influence or the combined influence of multiplying Three kinds of wawter bloom risk models and respective critical risk value are to guarantee wawter bloom occurs/does not occur for each model predictablity rate Highest finally provides optimal wawter bloom risk model and its corresponding critical risk value after more respective accuracy rate;
(3) the wawter bloom risk assessment unit 25 of data-mining module 2 calls shallow lake driven factor real-time monitoring letter Breath carries out the risk analysis of shallow lake wawter bloom and early warning, executes as follows:
The driven factor of routine monitoring device 11 and acoustics telemetering equipment 12 is transferred from the storage equipment of data collection module 1 Real-time Monitoring Data;
Using Kriging regression algorithm by Real-time Monitoring Data space interpolation to entire lake range;
It is calculated based on the optimal wawter bloom risk model that environment drive mode analysis comparing unit 24 provides and obtains shallow lake Current environment is lauched the raw risk distribution of grey hair, is that water occurs for prediction by the region recognition that wawter bloom occurrence risk is greater than critical risk value Magnificent region (as shown in Figure 4);
Exist if wawter bloom region occurs for current predictive, shallow lake wawter bloom occurrence risk is distributed and predicts that wawter bloom occurs It is issued to lake management department in region.

Claims (3)

1. a kind of shallow lake wawter bloom risk analysis early warning system, which is characterized in that dug including data collection module (1) and data It digs module (2);
The data collection module (1) includes routine monitoring device (11), acoustic telemetry device (12) and auxiliary device (13);Institute Stating routine monitoring device (11) includes floating website and stake formula website, common real-time monitoring shallow lake and algal grown and wawter bloom Related physics and Biochemical Information are broken out, which is be arranged in equidistant square array vertex in shallow lake floating Mark, buoy bottom are equipped with multi-parameter water quality sensor, and stake formula website, which refers to, is arranged in 2 times of floating website spacing in shallow lake Square array vertex and be fixed on the pile body on lakebed, pile body underwater portion is equipped with multi-parameter water quality sensor and chlorophyll A sensor, and pile body above water is equipped with multi-parameter meteorological sensor, light together valid radiation sensor;The acoustic telemetry Device (12) includes acoustics label carrier, acoustics label and hydrophone, real-time monitoring acoustics label present position and algal grown Multiple water body physical parameter related with breakout of water bloom, acoustics label carrier are shallow lake fish, acoustics label allocated water quality Sensor is simultaneously fixed on the dorsal fin of acoustics label carrier using nylon cable tie, and acoustics label is using ultrasonic wave periodically by it Identity identification information and physical parameter monitoring result are sent to surrounding water, and hydrophone is arranged in each floating website and stake formula station At point, hydrophone is directed downward and submerges in water, information transmitted by real-time reception ambient acoustic label;The auxiliary device (13) include storage equipment and communication apparatus, be arranged at each floating website and stake formula website, storage equipment saves conventional The monitoring data of monitoring device (11) and acoustics telemetering equipment (12), communication apparatus realize storage equipment and data-mining module (2) the data transmission between;
The data-mining module (2) is suitable for interval determination unit (22), drive by driven factor recognition unit (21), driven factor The sub- independence effect quantifying unit (23) of reason, environment drive mode analysis comparing unit (24) and wawter bloom risk assessment unit (25) Composition;The driven factor recognition unit (21) filters out and chlorophyll a according to shallow lake environmental factor Historical Monitoring data Concentration is significantly associated with and drives the component environment factor of wawter bloom generation as driven factor;The driven factor is suitable for that section determines Unit (22) determines the variation range for promoting chlorophyll-a concentration to be in high-order each driven factor as respective Suitable Area Between;The driven factor independence effect quantifying unit (23) in the case where other driven factors are defined in respectively suitable section, The separate responses that quantization chlorophyll-a concentration changes each driven factor;The environment drive mode analyzes comparing unit (24) Respectively calibration consider driven factor on wawter bloom occur it is cumulative influence, tired three kinds of wawter bloom risk models for multiplying influence or combined influence and Respective critical risk value provides optimal wawter bloom risk model and its critical risk value more afterwards;The wawter bloom risk assessment Unit (25) combines driven factor real-time monitoring information and optimal wawter bloom risk model to obtain wawter bloom under shallow lake current environment Occurrence risk distribution, carries out bloom prealarming to lake management department in the case where wawter bloom occurrence risk is greater than critical risk value.
2. shallow lake wawter bloom risk analysis early warning system according to claim 1, it is characterised in that: the acoustic telemetry Acoustics label in device (12) is positioned using Long baselines location method.
3. a kind of analysis based on shallow lake wawter bloom risk analysis early warning system described in claim 1 to 2 any one is pre- Alarm method, it is characterised in that: specifically includes the following steps:
(1) routine monitoring device (11) the real-time monitoring shallow lake Yu algal grown and breakout of water bloom of data collection module (1) Related physics and Biochemical Information;Acoustic telemetry device (12) carries out each acoustics label being dispersed in shallow lake real-time Position and receive the multiple water body physical parameter of acoustics label monitoring;Auxiliary device (13) is by routine monitoring device (11) and acoustics Monitoring information acquired in telemetering equipment (12) is saved to storage equipment;
(2) data-mining module (2) calls shallow lake environmental factor Historical Monitoring data, constructs shallow lake wawter bloom risk Model executes as follows:
(a) driven factor recognition unit (21) transfers had environment from a formula website from the storage equipment of data collection module (1) Factor Historical Monitoring data;
(b) driven factor recognition unit (21) is based on Historical Monitoring data, is filtered out using inclined mutual information method dense with chlorophyll a The component environment factor that the significant association of degree and driving wawter bloom occur is as driven factor;
(c) driven factor is suitable for that interval determination unit (22) are picking out satisfaction using orthogonal trial just from Historical Monitoring data The driven factor horizontal combination for the property handed over, using range analysis obtain chlorophyll-a concentration with the horizontal changing rule of single driven factor, And then determine the variation range for promoting chlorophyll-a concentration to be in high-order each driven factor as respective suitable section;
(d) driven factor independence effect quantifying unit (23) is in the case where other driven factors are defined in respectively suitable section, The separate responses that quantization chlorophyll-a concentration changes each driven factor;
(e) environment drive mode analysis comparing unit (24) is in driven factor independence effect quantifying unit (23) provided information On the basis of, using evolution algorithm, calibration considers that driven factor occurs cumulative to influence, tired multiply influence or combined influence on wawter bloom respectively Three kinds of wawter bloom risk models and respective critical risk value, then provide optimal wawter bloom risk model and its critical more afterwards Value-at-risk;
(3) the wawter bloom risk assessment unit (25) of data-mining module (2) calls shallow lake driven factor real-time monitoring letter Breath carries out the risk analysis of shallow lake wawter bloom and early warning, executes as follows:
(A) drive of routine monitoring device (11) and acoustics telemetering equipment (12) is transferred from the storage equipment of data collection module (1) The sub- Real-time Monitoring Data of reason;
(B) use Kriging regression algorithm by Real-time Monitoring Data space interpolation to entire lake range;
(C) it is calculated based on the optimal wawter bloom risk model that environment drive mode analysis comparing unit (24) provides and obtains shallow lake Current environment is lauched the raw risk distribution of grey hair, is that water occurs for prediction by the region recognition that wawter bloom occurrence risk is greater than critical risk value Magnificent region;
(D) if current predictive occurs wawter bloom region and exists, shallow lake wawter bloom occurrence risk is distributed and predicts that wawter bloom occurs It is issued to lake management department in region.
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