CN106886967A - A kind of method for setting up soil loss monitoring and Early-warning Model - Google Patents
A kind of method for setting up soil loss monitoring and Early-warning Model Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The present invention is developed and constructs a kind of method for setting up soil loss monitoring and Early-warning Model, the method determines its factor of influence weight coefficient based on analytic hierarchy process (AHP), soil erosion Early-warning Model is built based on efficiency coefficient method, the monitoring of its soil moisture content is arranged as the arrangement that multiple spot and multi-layer phase are combined, the soil moisture content of side slope different height assigns different weight coefficients in analytic hierarchy process (AHP), soil moisture content to different depth in efficiency coefficient method assigns different efficiency coefficient evaluations of estimate, set up a kind of multiple spot, the multidimensional soil loss monitoring and forecast model of multilayer, improve the precision of soil erosion early warning.
Description
Technical field
The present invention relates to Along Railway Environmental security assessment and early warning, more particularly, to Along Railway soil loss monitoring with
Early warning.
Background technology
Railway is the main artery of national economy, is played an important role in communications and transportation, and severe water and soil erosion influences
The normal operation of railway and traffic safety.China is soil erosion activity more frequently one of country, and railway is to be subjected to water
Soil is lost in one of industry of harm most serious.Soil erosion can usually be formed to railway bed destroys by rush of water, becomes silted up and bury, block bridges and culverts etc.,
Have a strong impact on the safe operation of railway.As the deterioration of global environment in recent years, extreme climate take place frequently, railway is constantly to mountain area
Extend, Along Railway Soil Erosion Disaster takes place frequently, serious to threaten railway supplyline operation safety, the annual disaster-stricken loss of railway occupies high
Under not.Soil Erosion Disaster is the most frequent natural calamity run on railway supplyline, and usually silt is buried, blocked, destroy by rush of water iron
Road circuit, triggers the security incidents such as railway disconnected road, train derailment, is seriously threatened to railway operation safety belt, hence sets up one
Individual perfect soil loss monitoring is very great for the meaning of railway security with early warning system.
The method of the monitoring and warning system of the geological disasters such as the mud-rock flow caused for soil erosion includes fuzzy mathematics side
Method, artificial neural network method, gray theory, GIS technology, theoretical, regression analysis can be opened up.The system model of early stage is based on rainfall
Condition sets up Early-warning Model, is not combined with local geological conditions, and prediction and warning precision is not high.Shadow is found by research
The factor for ringing soil erosion mainly has lithologic structure, topography and geomorphology, soil layer vegetation, hydrologic condition, weather rainfall etc., therefore scientific research
Personnel further established monitoring and the early warning system that condition of raining is coupled with geological conditions, consider the hillside gradient, side
The Multiple factors such as slope bulk materials reserves, vegetation coverage, soil moisture content, history rainfall, real-time rainfall.
Hole in soil is full of water, with the disequilibrium flowed to low flow of water point from flow of water point high；Current will not change
Become soil reclaimed water storage capacity.After soil moisture saturation, the cement between soil particle changes, and such as expands, dissolves, soil
Intergranular reunion performance weakens, and soil agreegate is destroyed, the active force between grogs, such as Van der Waals force, moisture film tension force, viscous
Knot power etc. is disappeared or ineffective, is slided between grogs, and along with the effect of waterpower, soil can be slipped and collapsed, and cause side slope
Collapse, cause soil erosion, trigger natural calamity, bury roadbed, wash away dykes and dams etc., therefore soil moisture content is to evaluate side slope to slip
Whether one of key factor for occurring with soil erosion of collapsing, considers soil moisture content factor, but do not enter in the prior art
One step considers the difference that causes of the diverse location water content to soil erosion in soil.
The content of the invention
Present invention aim at a kind of method for setting up soil loss monitoring and Early-warning Model of offer, it is considered to side slope difference position
The difference that causes of the soil moisture content to soil erosion is put, the multidimensional prediction model of a multiple spot, multilayer is set up；The method passes through
Following steps are set up：
Step S1, chooses the influence index of soil loss monitoring and early warning；
Step S2, scores each influence index；
Step S3, weight coefficient is assigned according to analytic hierarchy process (AHP) pair and appraisal result to each influence index；
Step S4, the efficiency coefficient value of each influence index is calculated according to efficiency coefficient method, in conjunction with the weight coefficient
Weighted sum obtains total efficiency coefficient；
Step S5, judges whether soil erosion according to total efficiency coefficient.
Influence index includes the soil moisture content of multiple positions described in the further step S1, sets its monitoring point
The arrangement that multiple spot and multi-layer phase are combined is arranged as, the different height position to same unit side slope is layouted respectively, to same
The different soils depth location of one height is layouted respectively, measures the soil moisture content of multiple spot.
Soil moisture content in the further step S2 to the different height position finding gives different scorings,
Soil moisture content to the different height position finding in the step S3 assigns different weight coefficients.
The further weight coefficient is smaller for the weight coefficient of side slope position soil moisture content higher, and side slope position is got over
The weight coefficient of low soil moisture content is bigger.
In the further step S4 different effects are assigned to the soil moisture content that the different depth position is determined
Factor evaluation value.
The further efficiency coefficient evaluation of estimate includes the satisfactory value of soil moisture content and not permissible value, the soil depth
Spend the satisfactory value of smaller soil moisture content and permissible value is not smaller, the satisfactory value of the bigger soil moisture content of depth of soil and not
Permissible value is bigger.
The different height position of the further same unit side slope is side slope upper, middle and lower position, the same height
The different soils depth location upper soll layer of degree, deep layer position.
Compared with prior art：The method of the present invention determines factor of influence weight coefficient based on analytic hierarchy process (AHP), based on work(
Effect Y-factor method Y builds soil erosion Early-warning Model, it can be considered that multiple variables, globality prediction is carried out to soil erosion ditch, wherein
Soil moisture content is whether the key factor that side slope collapse and soil erosion occur, and the measure to water content in soil uses multiple spot
The arrangement combined with multi-layer phase, and different evaluatings are set according to particular location in Early-warning Model is set up, can
The multidimensional prediction model of a multiple spot, multilayer is obtained, can be reflected entirely compared to traditional single-point soil moisture content forecast model
The status of soil erosion of side slope, further improves the precision of soil loss monitoring and early warning system.
Brief description of the drawings
Fig. 1 is Soil Loss Prediction warning index hierarchical system figure of the present invention.
Fig. 2 is soil moisture content arrangement topological structure of the present invention.
Fig. 3 is the Establishing process figure of Soil Loss Prediction Early-warning Model of the present invention.
Specific embodiment
Describe the present invention in detail below in conjunction with the accompanying drawings.
The present invention chooses side slope relative altitude, grade of side slope, vegetation coverage, the soil texture, soil and contains as Figure 1-3
There is sensitivity zoning, preceding 3d accumulated rainfalls, 24h rainfalls in water, formation lithology, erosion intensity, side slope loose material reserves, disaster
Amount, 10 minutes rainfalls are the influence index of soil erosion Early-warning Model.Wherein, side slope loose material reserves are soil erosion material resources
Important sources, reserves are bigger, and available solid debris thing is more when soil erosion occurs:Solid debris thing is looser,
Easier unstable failure under condition of raining, therefore, soil erosion ditch loose material has the formation that certain reserves are soil erosion
There is provided material resource condition；Hillside gradient size has reacted the stable condition and flow dynamic condition of domatic upper soil particle, and directly
Connect washing away and transporting capacity for influence rainwash；Vegetation coverage index has reacted the ability for preventing erosion, coverage rate
Higher, the energy needed for Rock And Soil unstability is bigger；The relative relief of railway slope then embodies the orographic condition of cheuch, and the discrepancy in elevation is got over
Greatly, there is provided potential energy it is bigger, hydrodynamic force is stronger, occur soil erosion possibility it is bigger；Rainfall is water and soil within 10 minutes
The important startup factor that loss is excited, intensity is bigger, and the possibility of Rock And Soil unstability is higher, and the possibility of soil erosion outburst is got over
Greatly；24h rainfall refers to that, to now preceding 24h rainfalls, rainfall is bigger, and the possibility that soil erosion occurs is bigger.The drop that length is lasted
Rain is easier to make the pore water pressure of side slope deep soil increase, and the soil body is also easy to produce sliding destruction, is the hair of later stage soil erosion
Life plays important contribution.Therefore, then the saturation of the reaction soil body is liquefied to a certain extent for the accumulated rainfall size of early stage
Degree, prophase programming influence degree when being occurred according to soil erosion, the accumulated rainfall for choosing 3 days refers to as prophase programming influence
Mark.
The present invention is further arranged as the arrangement that multiple spot and multi-layer phase are combined to the monitoring of soil moisture content, to same
The upper, middle and lower position of individual unit side slope is layouted respectively, and upper soll layer, deep layer position are layouted respectively, therefore side slope difference position
Put soil moisture content to distinguish the influence that soil erosion is caused, set up a soil and water losses area for multidimensional, can reflect
The status of soil erosion of whole side slope, further improves the accuracy of soil and water losses area, therefore soil moisture content is carried out carefully
Point, further using side slope top soil moisture content, middle part soil moisture content, underlying soil water content as influence index.
According to the source for calculating weight initial data, Weight Determination can be divided into subjective weighting method, objective weighted model
And Evaluation formula.The relative importance of each evaluation index is judged by expert group first；Then using correlation
Clustering algorithm carries out synthesis to the judge data of single human expert, obtains the weight of each index.Project will using main, objective combination,
The method of Comprehensive Evaluation is carried out, and obtains comprehensive grading table 1, and side slope underlying soil loose material quality is more, when soil moisture content is high
Mud-rock flow, landslide are more easily caused, therefore side slope top soil moisture content (C41) is scored<Middle part soil moisture content (C42) is commented
Point<Underlying soil water content scores (C43).
The Along Railway Soil Loss Prediction Alarm Assessment index system comprehensive grading table of table 1
Weight coefficient is a quantitative criteria of evaluation index significance level, and quantized value is bigger, and significance level is higher, therefore
The accurate and reasonability that weight coefficient determines will directly influence evaluation result.The present invention using analytic hierarchy process (AHP) carry out influence because
Son assigns power, and analytic hierarchy process (AHP) generally can be by following four as a kind of new, simple and practical modeling method, its modeling process
Individual step is carried out:Set up hierarchical structure model；Construct all judgment matrixs in each level；Mode of Level Simple Sequence and consistent
Property inspection；Total hierarchial sorting and consistency check.
The soil erosion target layer matrix of table 2 builds and weight calculation
The rule layer of table 3 basis factor matrix builds and weight calculation
| The basic factor (B1) | (C1) | (C2) | (C3) | (C4) | (C5) | Wi |
| Relative relief (C1) | 1.0000 | 0.8821 | 0.7950 | 1.1579 | 1.1173 | 0.1942 |
| Grade of side slope (C2) | 1.1337 | 1.0000 | 0.9013 | 1.3129 | 1.2668 | 0.2201 |
| The soil texture (C3) | 1.2578 | 1.1095 | 1.0000 | 1.4565 | 1.4055 | 0.2442 |
| Vegetation coverage (C4) | 0.8636 | 0.7617 | 0.6866 | 1.0000 | 0.9650 | 0.1677 |
| Formation lithology (C5) | 0.8950 | 0.7894 | 0.7115 | 1.0363 | 1.0000 | 0.1738 |
The rule layer response factor matrix of table 4 builds and weight calculation
| Response factor (B2) | (C63) | (C62) | (C61) | (C7) | (C8) | (C9) | Wi |
| Underlying soil water content (C63) | 1.0000 | 1.2669 | 1.5848 | 1.2303 | 0.9492 | 1.0885 | 0.1921 |
| Middle part soil moisture content (C62) | 0.7893 | 1.0000 | 1.2508 | 0.9711 | 0.7492 | 0.8591 | 0.1516 |
| Top soil moisture content (C61) | 0.6310 | 0.7995 | 1.0000 | 0.7763 | 0.5990 | 0.6869 | 0.1212 |
| Erosion intensity (C7) | 0.8128 | 1.0298 | 1.2881 | 1.0000 | 0.7715 | 0.8847 | 0.1561 |
| Disaster sensitiveness (C8) | 1.0535 | 1.3347 | 1.6695 | 1.2961 | 1.0000 | 1.1467 | 0.2024 |
| Side slope bulk materials reserves (C9) | 0.9187 | 1.1640 | 1.4559 | 1.1303 | 0.8721 | 1.0000 | 0.1765 |
The rule layer inducible factor matrix of table 5 builds and weight calculation
| Inducible factor (B3) | (C10) | (C11) | (C12) | Wi |
| Preceding 3d rainfalls (C10) | 1.0000 | 0.9355 | 0.8269 | 0.3050 |
| 24h rainfalls (C11) | 1.0690 | 1.0000 | 0.8839 | 0.3261 |
| 10 minutes rainfalls (C12) | 1.2094 | 1.1313 | 1.0000 | 0.3689 |
The soil erosion factor of influence indicator combination weight of table 6
Efficiency coefficient method is called Power Function method, is a kind of multiple indexs of reflection, the method for quantitatively evaluating of comprehensive analysis, right
Each single item evaluation index determines a satisfactory value and not permissible value, is lower limit with not permissible value with satisfactory value as the upper limit, calculates each
Index is realized being satisfied with extent value, and with the efficiency coefficient value of each index of this determination, then be weighted evaluating determination comprehensive evaluation value,
So as to evaluate the integrated status of studied object.Its evaluation procedure is as follows:
(1) evaluation index is chosen
Evaluation index must representative and typicalness, in appraisement system should independently again can be complementary, should be as much as possible
The general status of reflected appraisal target.
(2) satisfactory value and not permissible value of evaluation index are determined
To each evaluation index, its satisfactory value and not permissible value will be determined.Satisfactory value is people according to itself or row
The value that industry experience is given；Permissible value does not take the acceptable minimum or peak of evaluation index typically.
(3) the individual event efficiency coefficient value of evaluation index
In the middle of assessment indicator system, according to the characteristics of each index, individual event efficiency coefficient can be determined according to following rule.Altogether
It is divided into 4 kinds of variables, it is large variable that wherein desired value is bigger, individual event efficiency coefficient value is higher；Index value is smaller, individual event
It is minimal type variable that efficiency coefficient wants high；Index value its individual event coefficient highest at certain point is stable type variable；Refer to
Mark numerical value its individual event coefficient highest when a certain interval is interval type variable.
Large variable individual event efficiency coefficient computing formula is：
Minimal type variable individual event efficiency coefficient formula：
Stable type variable individual event efficiency coefficient formula is：
Interval type variable individual event efficiency coefficient formula is：
In formula, g1i is i-th individual event efficiency coefficient value of large evaluation index, Xi be I (i=l, 2,, it is m) individual to comment
The actual value of valency index；Xyi is i-th satisfactory value of evaluation index；Xni is i-th not permissible value of evaluation index；Xmax is
The higher limit of interval type variable；Xmin is the lower limit of interval type variable；Xnmax is the not permissible value of the upper limit；Xnmin is lower limit
Not permissible value.
Side slope top of the present invention soil moisture content, middle part soil moisture content, underlying soil water content belongs to large change
Amount, according to its satisfactory value and permissible value does not draw its efficiency coefficient value according to formula 1, and considers the hole of topsoil and deep soil
Gap is of different sizes, and its water holding capacity is also differed, therefore satisfactory value for soil moisture content and permissible value does not have topsoil>
Deep soil, sets forth the weight coefficient of the soil moisture content of side slope each height and position above, calculate total work
During effect coefficient, the soil moisture content weight coefficient of sustained height position can be that the soil of the different depth for assigning to the position contains
It is assigned in the soil moisture content of the different depth of the position in water, or using other method, such as recurrence method, level
Analytic approach etc..
Total efficiency coefficient value
Individual event efficiency coefficient according to evaluation index, in the weight coefficient of combining assessment index, Calculation Estimation object it is total
Efficiency coefficient value:
Wherein G is total efficiency coefficient value of evaluation object；Gi is i-th individual event efficiency coefficient value of evaluation index；ω i are
I-th weight coefficient of evaluation index.
Total efficiency coefficient can be calculated according to total efficiency coefficient value formula, total effect coefficient magnitude is divided with advanced warning grade is
According to efficiency coefficient method principle, using total efficiency coefficient value as evaluation criterion, soil erosion early warning etc. is divided according to numerical values recited
Level, to the advanced warning grade that administrative department, related personnel issue.
The soil erosion early warning grade of table 7
| Advanced warning grade | Total efficiency coefficient | Explanation |
| I | ≤60 | Possibility very little, does not issue early warning information |
| II | 60-70 | Possibility is smaller, does not issue early warning information |
| III | 70-80 | Possibility is larger, issues yellow early warning information |
| IV | 80-90 | Possibility is big, issues orange early warning information |
| V | ≥90 | Possibility is very big, issues red early warning information |
Above-described embodiment is only described in an illustrative manner, without departing from the scope of the invention, can select it
His factor of influence, the other positions monitoring point for setting soil moisture content are all possible.
Claims (7)
1. a kind of method for setting up soil loss monitoring and Early-warning Model,
Step S1, chooses the influence index of soil loss monitoring and early warning；
Step S2, scores each influence index；
Step S3, weight coefficient is assigned according to analytic hierarchy process (AHP) to each influence index；
Step S4, the efficiency coefficient value of each influence index is calculated according to efficiency coefficient method, in conjunction with weight coefficient weighting
Summation obtains total efficiency coefficient；
Step S5, judges whether soil erosion according to total efficiency coefficient.
2. the method for setting up soil loss monitoring and Early-warning Model according to claim 1, shadow described in the step S1
Snap mark includes the soil moisture content of multiple positions, sets its monitoring point and is arranged as the arrangement that multiple spot and multi-layer phase are combined,
Different height position to same unit side slope is layouted respectively, and the different soils depth location to sustained height is layouted respectively,
Measure the soil moisture content of multiple spot.
3. the method for setting up soil loss monitoring and Early-warning Model according to claim 2, to described in the step S2
The soil moisture content of different height position finding gives different scorings, and the different height position is surveyed in the step S3
Fixed soil moisture content assigns different weight coefficients.
4. the method for setting up soil loss monitoring and Early-warning Model according to claim 2, the weight coefficient is side slope
The weight coefficient of position soil moisture content higher is smaller, and the weight coefficient of the lower soil moisture content in side slope position is bigger.
5. the method for setting up soil loss monitoring and Early-warning Model according to Claims 2 or 3, to institute in the step S4
The soil moisture content for stating different depth position measure assigns different efficiency coefficient evaluations of estimate.
6. the method for setting up soil loss monitoring and Early-warning Model according to claim 5, the efficiency coefficient evaluation of estimate
Satisfactory value including soil moisture content and not permissible value, the not satisfactory value of the smaller soil moisture content of depth of soil and permissible value
It is bigger, the satisfactory value of the bigger soil moisture content of depth of soil and permissible value is not smaller.
7. the method for setting up soil loss monitoring and Early-warning Model according to claim 2, the same unit side slope
Different height position be side slope upper, middle and lower position, the different soils depth location upper soll layer of the sustained height, deep layer
Position.
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Cited By (4)
| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CN111047096A (en) * | 2019-12-16 | 2020-04-21 | 江西遥览科技有限公司 | Regional water and soil loss daily forecasting algorithm |
| CN113506599A (en) * | 2021-07-19 | 2021-10-15 | 中国水利水电科学研究院 | Digital mixing and intelligent dynamic regulation and control system for cemented dam |
| CN114219678A (en) * | 2021-12-14 | 2022-03-22 | 国网浙江省电力有限公司经济技术研究院 | Method for monitoring and early warning water and soil loss during construction of overhead line tower footing |
| CN116663106A (en) * | 2023-05-18 | 2023-08-29 | 重庆市规划和自然资源调查监测院 | Working method for analyzing slope restoration implementation of expressway by using mass data |
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2017
- 2017-02-20 CN CN201710091159.2A patent/CN106886967A/en active Pending
Cited By (7)
| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CN111047096A (en) * | 2019-12-16 | 2020-04-21 | 江西遥览科技有限公司 | Regional water and soil loss daily forecasting algorithm |
| CN113506599A (en) * | 2021-07-19 | 2021-10-15 | 中国水利水电科学研究院 | Digital mixing and intelligent dynamic regulation and control system for cemented dam |
| CN113506599B (en) * | 2021-07-19 | 2024-03-22 | 中国水利水电科学研究院 | Digital mixing and intelligent dynamic regulation and control system for cementing dam |
| CN114219678A (en) * | 2021-12-14 | 2022-03-22 | 国网浙江省电力有限公司经济技术研究院 | Method for monitoring and early warning water and soil loss during construction of overhead line tower footing |
| CN114219678B (en) * | 2021-12-14 | 2024-06-04 | 国网浙江省电力有限公司经济技术研究院 | Water and soil loss monitoring and early warning method for overhead line tower foundation construction |
| CN116663106A (en) * | 2023-05-18 | 2023-08-29 | 重庆市规划和自然资源调查监测院 | Working method for analyzing slope restoration implementation of expressway by using mass data |
| CN116663106B (en) * | 2023-05-18 | 2024-05-14 | 重庆市规划和自然资源调查监测院 | Working method for analyzing slope restoration implementation of expressway by using mass data |
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Application publication date: 20170623 |