CN106803137A - Urban track traffic AFC system enters the station volume of the flow of passengers method for detecting abnormality in real time - Google Patents

Urban track traffic AFC system enters the station volume of the flow of passengers method for detecting abnormality in real time Download PDF

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CN106803137A
CN106803137A CN201710055877.4A CN201710055877A CN106803137A CN 106803137 A CN106803137 A CN 106803137A CN 201710055877 A CN201710055877 A CN 201710055877A CN 106803137 A CN106803137 A CN 106803137A
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station
flow
enters
passengers
volume
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张宁
张见
刘涵
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Southeast University
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Southeast University
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    • GPHYSICS
    • G06COMPUTING; CALCULATING; COUNTING
    • G06QDATA PROCESSING SYSTEMS OR METHODS, SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL, SUPERVISORY OR FORECASTING PURPOSES; SYSTEMS OR METHODS SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL, SUPERVISORY OR FORECASTING PURPOSES, NOT OTHERWISE PROVIDED FOR
    • G06Q10/00Administration; Management
    • G06Q10/04Forecasting or optimisation, e.g. linear programming, "travelling salesman problem" or "cutting stock problem"
    • GPHYSICS
    • G06COMPUTING; CALCULATING; COUNTING
    • G06QDATA PROCESSING SYSTEMS OR METHODS, SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL, SUPERVISORY OR FORECASTING PURPOSES; SYSTEMS OR METHODS SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL, SUPERVISORY OR FORECASTING PURPOSES, NOT OTHERWISE PROVIDED FOR
    • G06Q50/00Systems or methods specially adapted for specific business sectors, e.g. utilities or tourism
    • G06Q50/30Transportation; Communications

Abstract

The present invention provides a kind of urban track traffic AFC system and enters the station in real time volume of the flow of passengers method for detecting abnormality,The Lyapunov indexes of the passenger flow data time series that entered the station using improved small data sets arithmetic calculating history first,Verify the chaotic characteristic of the sequence,The time delay and smallest embedding dimension number of chaos time sequence are determined followed by C_C methods,Phase space reconfiguration is carried out to former time series,Determine model training test sample collection,And using trellis search method Optimized model parameter on a large scale,Recycle the volume of the flow of passengers that enters the station of the model prediction day part after optimization,Then using the distribution character of the day part amount of entering the station prediction residual sequence in training sample,Finally determine that under a certain confidence level day part enters the station the confidential interval of passenger flow forecast residual error,So that it is determined that the threshold values upper limit and lower threshold of the volume of the flow of passengers abnormality detection that enters the station of future time period.The abnormality detection scope of the volume of the flow of passengers that enters the station effectively has been shunk in this discovery, reduces the rate of false alarm of data exception detection.

Description

Urban track traffic AFC system enters the station volume of the flow of passengers method for detecting abnormality in real time
Technical field
Entered the station in real time volume of the flow of passengers method for detecting abnormality the present invention relates to a kind of urban track traffic AFC system, belong to city Intelligent track-traffic technology.
Background technology
The raising of real-time passenger flow data information in City Rail Transit System to subway system service ability is most important. However, due to the diversity and the reason such as complexity of real-time Data Transmission process of the equipment supplier in AFC system so that The real-time passenger flow data obtained from AFC system can not completely reflect operation actual conditions, and part station is in some periods The volume of the flow of passengers that enters the station in real time differs greatly with the volume of the flow of passengers that actually enters the station, in order to ensure to obtain the quality of passenger flow data in real time, it is necessary to right The passenger flow data for obtaining in real time carries out abnormality detection and correction process.Set rational by each station, the day part volume of the flow of passengers Threshold values, whether the volume of the flow of passengers that enters the station that can effectively judge real-time acquisition is abnormal, so during the threshold values upper limit and lower threshold Reasonable set it is the most key.
According to same station, meet normal distribution with period Trip distribution the characteristics of, utilize " average-triple standard difference method " really It is a kind of simple and easy to do method to determine passenger flow threshold values bound, but there is exceptional value and part station in itself due to sample data The seasonal passenger traffic fluctuation reason such as larger, cause the threshold range for drawing excessive, it is impossible to effectively to be entered the station to real-time acquisition Passenger flow data carries out abnormality detection.
The content of the invention
Goal of the invention:In order to solve the existing counted valve of passenger flow data method for detecting abnormality that enters the station in real time based on threshold values Value scope carries out the not good problem of Detection results of data exception detection, and the present invention provides a kind of urban track traffic AFC system Enter the station volume of the flow of passengers method for detecting abnormality in real time, and the method determines model training test specimens by verifying the chaotic characteristic of the sequence This collection, then using the distribution character of the day part amount of entering the station prediction residual sequence in training sample, so that it is determined that future time period The threshold values upper limit and lower threshold of the volume of the flow of passengers that enters the station abnormality detection.
Technical scheme:To achieve the above object, the technical solution adopted by the present invention is:
A kind of urban track traffic AFC system enters the station volume of the flow of passengers method for detecting abnormality in real time, comprises the following steps:
(1) phase space reconfiguration of chaos time sequence:Part-time is intercepted from the former time series of the passenger flow data that enters the station Sequence X={ xi| i=1,2 ..., K }, the time delay τ and Embedded dimensions m of the part-time sequence are tried to achieve using C_C methods; If the part-time sequence not chaos, part-time sequence is intercepted again;If the part-time sequence chaos, based on the portion Sequence pair original time series carries out phase space reconfiguration between timesharing;xiIt is i-th volume of the flow of passengers data that enter the station of sample, K is the part The number of samples that time series is included.
(2) sequence chaotic characteristic judges:According to time delay τ and Embedded dimensions m that step (1) is tried to achieve, using improved Small data sets arithmetic calculates the Lyapunov indexes of the part-time sequence:If Lyapunov indexes are for just, then it represents that during the part Between sequence chaos;Otherwise, the part-time sequence not chaos is represented;
(3) enter the station Passenger flow forecast model in real time:Training sample set is intercepted out from the former time series after phase space reconfiguration With checking sample set, each column data to each sample set importation carries out standardized normal distribution conversion;By the training after conversion Sample set is trained in being brought into Support vector regression model, while (being used using grid search optimization method on a large scale The method can Support Vector Machines Optimized regression model parameter, the prediction effect of lift scheme) determine Support vector regression mould Type penalty coefficient C, insensitive coefficient ε and index Radial basis kernel function parameter lambda;
(4) residual distribution of predicted value and actual value:Checking sample set after conversion is brought into Support vector regression It is trained in model, list is carried out to the checking sample period volume of the flow of passengers that enters the station using the Support vector regression model after training Step prediction, due to similar date (working day and nonworkdays), the volume of the flow of passengers Changing Pattern that enters the station with station generally day part It is similar, the enter the station volume of the flow of passengers and the reality of the day part of the Support vector regression model prediction after training are understood by K-S assays The residual sequence distribution that border is entered the station between the volume of the flow of passengers meets normal distribution;With yjI () represents actually entering the station for the i-th period of jth day The volume of the flow of passengers, withRepresent that the prediction of jth day the i-th period is entered the station the volume of the flow of passengers,When representing jth day i-th The predicated error of section, e (i) represents the prediction residual sequence of period on similar date i-th, then ejI () meets normal distribution, i.e.,:
E (i)~N (μ, σ2)
Wherein, μ is the population mean of the i-th period of similar date prediction residual, and σ is the period on similar date i-th to predict residual Poor population standard deviation, N (μ, σ2) expression average be μ, variance be σ2Normal distribution sequence;
Checking sample set is predicted using the Support vector regression model after training, the similar date i-th for obtaining The sample mean of period prediction residualIt is respectively with sample standard deviation s (i):
Wherein, N is the sample size of the i-th period of similar date prediction residual;
(5) the passenger flow confidential interval that enters the station is determined:Understand that carrying out following classification considers according to mathematical statistics relevant knowledge:
1. as N > 50,σ≈s(i);Under given confidence level 1- α, the following period on similar date i-th enters the station Volume of the flow of passengers confidential interval is:
Wherein,For the following period on similar date i-th enters the station passenger flow forecast value, Zα/2For on standardized normal distribution 'sQuantile;
2. when N≤50,σ≠s(i);Under given confidence level 1- α, the following period on similar date i-th enters the station Volume of the flow of passengers confidential interval is:
Wherein, tα/2(N-1) in t (N-1) distributions (free degree is distributed for the t of N-1)Quantile;
Due to entering the station passenger flow numerical quantity for integer in real time, thus need to the lower bound of confidential interval 1. and being 2. calculated to On round, the upper bound rounds downwards, the confidential interval left end point as lower threshold after rounding, right endpoint is the threshold values upper limit;
(6) enter the station volume of the flow of passengers abnormality detection and processing method in real time:If certain station obtained in real time from AFC system, The volume of the flow of passengers that enters the station of a certain period accepts and believe the value in the range of corresponding confidence interval threshold, then;Otherwise, the passenger flow that enters the station is judged Amount is abnormal, and the volume of the flow of passengers that enters the station is predicted using the Support vector regression model after training, accepts and believe the prediction after rounding Value.
Specifically, in the step (5), as N > 50,σ ≈ s (i), i.e., nowThen constructed variableThen in given confidence Under degree 1- α the following period on similar date i-th enter the station volume of the flow of passengers confidential interval byCalculate;When N≤ When 50,σ ≠ s (i), i.e., can not be calculated to obtain population standard deviation, now, constructed variable by sample standard deviationThe following period on similar date i-th enters standee under then giving confidence level 1- α Flow confidential interval byCalculate.
Beneficial effect:The urban track traffic AFC system that the present invention is provided enters the station volume of the flow of passengers method for detecting abnormality in real time, leads to Cross using the Support vector regression model amount of being entered the station passenger flow estimation in real time, during according to training set working day and each nonworkdays Section regression criterion sequence statistic distribution character, can determine the volume of the flow of passengers abnormality detection threshold values that enters the station in real time, can effectively be collapsible into The abnormality detection scope of standee's flow, and the rate of false alarm of data exception detection is reduced, detection energy of the reinforcing to abnormal passenger flow data Power, it is ensured that obtain the accuracy and promptness of passenger flow data in real time, is passenger information service system, real-time passenger flow estimation and big The application such as passenger flow early warning is supported there is provided reliable data, so as to enhance the service ability of subway system.
Brief description of the drawings
Fig. 1 is implementing procedure figure of the invention;
Fig. 2 is 5 to the 18 big temporary dwelling palace station amount of the entering the station distribution maps of August in 2013;
Fig. 3 is the amount of the entering the station abnormality detection threshold values comparison diagram of on December 29th, 2013;
Fig. 4 is the amount of the entering the station abnormality detection threshold values comparison diagram of on December 31st, 2013.
Specific embodiment
The present invention is further described below in conjunction with the accompanying drawings.
As shown in Figure 1 for a kind of urban track traffic AFC system enters the station volume of the flow of passengers method for detecting abnormality in real time, literary grace is with changing The small data sets arithmetic for entering calculates the Lyapunov indexes of the passenger flow time series that enters the station, and verifies the chaotic characteristic of the sequence;Using C_C Method calculates the time delay and smallest embedding dimension number of the passenger flow time series that enters the station, and carries out phase space reconfiguration to the sequence, raw Into model training, checking and test sample collection;And Support vector regression model parameter is entered using grid data service on a large scale Row optimizing;Then using the volume of the flow of passengers that enters the station of chaos Support vector regression model prediction day part, with reference to hypothesis testing method, The stochastic variable of specific distribution is obeyed with the regression criterion construction of training set under the period using the similar date, when calculating each successively Corresponding confidential interval of the passenger flow estimation residual error under respective confidence that enter the station of section, so the volume of the flow of passengers that actually entered the station threshold values The upper limit and lower threshold, to obtain more effective abnormality detection scope.
The present invention is made further instructions with reference to embodiment.
This example data come from the big temporary dwelling palace station of No. two lines of Line of Nanjing Subway track traffic January 20 30 days to 2014 July in 2013 Day 5:30-23:The passenger flow data that enters the station between 29, the time granularity of the passenger flow data that enters the station takes 15 minutes, entering in the time period The mathematical notation of standee's flow data is X={ xi| i=1,2 ..., 12600 }.
Step1, sequence chaotic characteristic judge
Choose the Time Sub-series X={ x of length K=3000i| i=1,2 ..., 3000 }, try to achieve the portion using C_C methods Divide the time delay τ and Embedded dimensions m of time series, calculate to obtain τ=3, m=15.
Step2, sequence chaotic characteristic judge
According to τ=3, m=15 tries to achieve the maximum Lyapunov exponent λ of the sequence using the improved method of small data sets arithmetic1 =0.06 > 0, therefore the subway station amount of the entering the station time series has chaotic characteristic.
Step3, enter the station Passenger flow forecast model in real time
Phase space reconfiguration is carried out to former chaos time sequence, and with 30 days in Septembers, 2013 data of 24 days of July in 2013 Used as training data, used as checking data, on December 29th, 2013 is extremely on the December 28th, 25 days 1 of September in 2013 data The data on January 20 in 2014 after being standardized conversion to training, checking and test data set, are used as test data Support vector regression model penalty coefficient C, insensitive coefficient ε and index footpath are determined using grid search optimization method on a large scale To base kernel functional parameter λ, optimizing optimized after model parameter C=360, ε=3, λ=0.03.
The residual distribution of Step4, predicted value and actual value
August in 2013 is chosen to be visualized as shown in Fig. 2 can learn to August No. 18 passenger flow data that enters the station of two weeks within 5th Workaday passenger flow Changing Pattern is roughly the same, and the passenger flow Changing Pattern between nonworkdays is also roughly the same, working day and non-work The Trip distribution situation for making day differs greatly;And from calculating, training sample concentrates working day residual with nonworkdays day part The statistical parameter value difference of difference sequence is not larger, therefore the model training residual error data of day part will distinguish working day and nonworkdays, Obtain the day part amount of entering the station residual error data in model training sample using Support vector regression model, so obtain working day with The statistical parameter value of nonworkdays day part model prediction residual error, i.e. sample average, sample variance, sample number.In order to test this Model to the effect of the two class date amount of entering the station abnormality detections, now on December 29th, 2013 to entering the station between 20 days January in 2014 Volume of the flow of passengers data carry out validity check, and be given two days on December 29,31st, 2013 (i.e. Sunday and Tuesday) threshold value setting and The specific calculating process of abnormality detection.
29 days 6 December in 2013 is obtained using the Support vector regression model for training:30 to 6:44 periods (period 5) The passenger flow forecast value that enters the station isThe volume of the flow of passengers that actually enters the station is y=27, and such date (nonworkdays) this period is trained Sample residual sequence carries out K-S inspections, and to judge its distribution situation, it is assumed that its Normal Distribution, taking significance is 0.05, it is 0.995 to be calculated with SPSS Statistics and must check probable value, much larger than significance, meanwhile, it is each to remaining Period residual sequence data carry out K-S inspections, its inspection probable value all be more than significance, so it is believed that such date it is each The residual sequence Normal Distribution of period.Such training sample residual sequence sample mean of period on date 5Sample This standard difference s (i)=20.44.
31 days 6 December in 2013 is obtained using the Support vector regression model for training:30 to 6:44 periods (period 5) The passenger flow forecast value that enters the station isThe volume of the flow of passengers that actually enters the station is y=120, and such date (nonworkdays) this period is trained Sample residual sequence carries out K-S inspections, and to judge its distribution situation, it is assumed that its Normal Distribution, taking significance is 0.05, it is 0.665 to be calculated with SPSS Statistics and must check probable value, much larger than significance, meanwhile, it is each to remaining Period residual sequence data carry out K-S inspections, its inspection probable value all be more than significance, so it is believed that such date it is each The residual sequence Normal Distribution of period.Such training sample residual sequence sample mean of period on date 5 Sample standard deviation s (i)=15.12.
Step5, determination are entered the station passenger flow confidential interval
To 29 days 6 December in 2013:30 to 6:44 periods (period 5) are analyzed, sample number N=27 < 50, therefore, the period The sample standard deviation of residual sequence is larger with population standard deviation deviation, and parameter is substituted into (5) Shi Ke get, and the period enters the station the volume of the flow of passengers It is to enter the station the confidential interval of 1- α=0.99, i.e. this period volume of the flow of passengers valid value range for [0,87] in confidence level, its left and right end points Value is required lower threshold and the threshold values upper limit, and the threshold values of other periods is calculated by that analogy, and the day volume of the flow of passengers that enters the station is examined extremely Side valve value is as shown in Figure 3.
To 31 days 6 December in 2013:30 to 6:44 periods (period 5) are analyzed, sample number N=68 > 50, therefore, the period The sample standard deviation of residual sequence is approximately equal to population standard deviation, and parameter is substituted into (4) Shi Ke get, and the period amount of entering the station is in confidence level It is the confidential interval of 1- α=0.99, i.e. this period enters the station volume of the flow of passengers valid value range for [81,158], and its left and right endpoint value is Required lower threshold and the threshold values upper limit, the threshold values of other periods are calculated by that analogy, and enter the station volume of the flow of passengers abnormality detection threshold values in the day As shown in Figure 4.
Step6, real-time enter the station volume of the flow of passengers abnormality detection and processing method
If certain station for being obtained in real time from AFC system, a certain period enter the station passenger flow data in threshold range, Accept and believe the value;It is no, then the passenger flow data exception that enters the station is can determine that, rear data are now rounded using model predication valueAs this The volume of the flow of passengers that enters the station in real time of period.
The above is only the preferred embodiment of the present invention, it should be pointed out that:For the ordinary skill people of the art For member, under the premise without departing from the principles of the invention, some improvements and modifications can also be made, these improvements and modifications also should It is considered as protection scope of the present invention.

Claims (2)

1. a kind of urban track traffic AFC system enters the station volume of the flow of passengers method for detecting abnormality in real time, it is characterised in that:Including following step Suddenly:
(1) phase space reconfiguration of chaos time sequence:Part-time sequence X is intercepted from the former time series of the passenger flow data that enters the station ={ xi| i=1,2 ..., K }, the time delay τ and Embedded dimensions m of the part-time sequence are tried to achieve using C_C methods;If the portion Divide time series not chaos, then intercept part-time sequence again;If the part-time sequence chaos, based on the part-time Sequence pair original time series carries out phase space reconfiguration;xiIt is i-th volume of the flow of passengers data that enter the station of sample, K is the part-time sequence The number of samples that row are included.
(2) sequence chaotic characteristic judges:According to time delay τ and Embedded dimensions m that step (1) is tried to achieve, using improved decimal The Lyapunov indexes of the part-time sequence are calculated according to amount method:If Lyapunov indexes are for just, then it represents that the part-time sequence Row chaos;Otherwise, the part-time sequence not chaos is represented;
(3) enter the station Passenger flow forecast model in real time:Training sample set is intercepted out from the former time series after phase space reconfiguration and is tested Card sample set, each column data to each sample set importation carries out standardized normal distribution conversion;By the training sample after conversion Collection is brought into Support vector regression model and is trained, at the same using grid search optimization method on a large scale determine to support to Amount machine regression model penalty coefficient C, insensitive coefficient ε and index Radial basis kernel function parameter lambda;
(4) residual distribution of predicted value and actual value:Checking sample set after conversion is brought into Support vector regression model In be trained, the checking sample period is entered the station using the Support vector regression model after training to carry out single step pre- for the volume of the flow of passengers Survey, with yjI () represents the volume of the flow of passengers that actually enters the station of the i-th period of jth day, withRepresent that the prediction of the i-th period of jth day is entered the station The volume of the flow of passengers,The predicated error of the i-th period of jth day is represented, e (i) represents the pre- of period on similar date i-th Residual sequence is surveyed, then ejI () meets normal distribution, i.e.,:
E (i)~N (μ, σ2)
Wherein, μ is the population mean of the i-th period of similar date prediction residual, and σ is the i-th period of similar date prediction residual Population standard deviation, N (μ, σ2) expression average be μ, variance be σ2Normal distribution sequence;
Checking sample set is predicted using the Support vector regression model after training, the period on similar date i-th for obtaining The sample mean of prediction residualIt is respectively with sample standard deviation s (i):
e ‾ ( i ) = 1 N Σ j = 1 N e j ( i )
s ( i ) = s 2 ( i ) = 1 N - 1 Σ j = 1 N ( e j ( i ) - e ‾ ( i ) ) 2
Wherein, N is the sample size of the i-th period of similar date prediction residual;
(5) the passenger flow confidential interval that enters the station is determined:Understand that carrying out following classification considers according to mathematical statistics relevant knowledge:
1. as N > 50,σ≈s(i);Under given confidence level 1- α, the following period on similar date i-th enters the station passenger flow Measuring confidential interval is:
Wherein,For the following period on similar date i-th enters the station passenger flow forecast value, Zα/2For on standardized normal distributionPoint Site;
2. when N≤50,σ≠s(i);Under given confidence level 1- α, the following period on similar date i-th enters the station passenger flow Measuring confidential interval is:
Wherein, tα/2(N-1) in t (N-1) distributionQuantile;
Because the passenger flow numerical quantity that enters the station in real time is for integer, therefore the lower bound of the confidential interval to 1. and being 2. calculated is needed to take upwards The whole, upper bound rounds downwards, and the confidential interval left end point as lower threshold after rounding, right endpoint is the threshold values upper limit;
(6) enter the station volume of the flow of passengers abnormality detection and processing method in real time:If certain station, a certain obtained in real time from AFC system The volume of the flow of passengers that enters the station of period accepts and believe the value in the range of corresponding confidence interval threshold, then;Otherwise, judge that the volume of the flow of passengers that enters the station is different Often, the volume of the flow of passengers that enters the station is predicted using the Support vector regression model after training, accepts and believe the predicted value after rounding.
2. urban track traffic AFC system according to claim 1 enters the station volume of the flow of passengers method for detecting abnormality, its feature in real time It is:In the step (5), as N > 50,σ ≈ s (i), i.e., now Then constructed variableThen the following period on similar date i-th enters under given confidence level 1- α Standee's flow confidential interval byCalculate;When N≤50,σ ≠ s (i), i.e., can not Population standard deviation, now, constructed variable are calculated to obtain by sample standard deviationThen give Under confidence level 1- α the following period on similar date i-th enter the station volume of the flow of passengers confidential interval by Calculate.
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