CN106447100A - Optimal maintenance period evaluation method and system of petrochemical device - Google Patents

Optimal maintenance period evaluation method and system of petrochemical device Download PDF

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Publication number
CN106447100A
CN106447100A CN201610842954.6A CN201610842954A CN106447100A CN 106447100 A CN106447100 A CN 106447100A CN 201610842954 A CN201610842954 A CN 201610842954A CN 106447100 A CN106447100 A CN 106447100A
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China
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annual
overhaul
overhauls
tbo
income
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CN201610842954.6A
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Chinese (zh)
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李翔
赵文静
路笃辉
陆旸
马歆
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中国特种设备检测研究院
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Publication of CN106447100A publication Critical patent/CN106447100A/en

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    • GPHYSICS
    • G06COMPUTING; CALCULATING; COUNTING
    • G06QDATA PROCESSING SYSTEMS OR METHODS, SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL, SUPERVISORY OR FORECASTING PURPOSES; SYSTEMS OR METHODS SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL, SUPERVISORY OR FORECASTING PURPOSES, NOT OTHERWISE PROVIDED FOR
    • G06Q10/00Administration; Management
    • G06Q10/04Forecasting or optimisation, e.g. linear programming, "travelling salesman problem" or "cutting stock problem"
    • GPHYSICS
    • G06COMPUTING; CALCULATING; COUNTING
    • G06QDATA PROCESSING SYSTEMS OR METHODS, SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL, SUPERVISORY OR FORECASTING PURPOSES; SYSTEMS OR METHODS SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL, SUPERVISORY OR FORECASTING PURPOSES, NOT OTHERWISE PROVIDED FOR
    • G06Q50/00Systems or methods specially adapted for specific business sectors, e.g. utilities or tourism
    • G06Q50/02Agriculture; Fishing; Mining

Abstract

The invention provides an optimal maintenance period evaluation method of a petrochemical device. The method comprises that operation condition data related to the petrochemical device is collected, and the longest maintenance period T in which the petrochemical device is maintained is set according to the collected operation condition data; the heavy-maintenance cost, benefit from reduction of unplanned parking loss in each year and benefit from energy loss in each year within each maintenance period n are determined; on the basis of the determined heavy-maintenance cost, benefit from reduction of unplanned parking loss in each year and benefit from energy loss in each year, a yearly average cost NPV(n) within each maintenance period is determined via a dismounting method; and on the basis of the determined yearly average cost NPV(n), a maintenance period corresponding to the optimal yearly average cost is selected as an optimal maintenance period. The maintenance period n represents that the petrochemical device is maintained every n years, and n equals 1, 2 to T. The invention also provides an optimal maintenance period evaluation system of the petrochemical device.

Description

A kind of petrochemical plant time between overhauls(TBO) evaluation methodology of optimum and its system

Technical field

The present invention relates to a kind of Economic Analysis Method of petrochemical plant time between overhauls(TBO), belongs to the risk of petrochemical industry Management technique field.

Background technology

The demand growing for meeting the domestic energy, domestic petroleum petroleum chemical enterprise production scale constantly expands, and produces skill Art is constantly lifted so that device is maximized increasingly, serialization and automatization, and the structure of device is also more complicated.And with making With the increase of time, device can more or less occur some faults, and these faults can bring certain impact to the operation of enterprise. The maintenance cost that enterprise is produced because of equipment fault and production loss have accounted for the 30%~40% of its total production cost the.Some industries The second of total production cost, even more high have been occupied.According to statistics, China is only used for the expenditure of maintenance of equipment every year and is just up to More than 800 hundred million yuan, the 7%~9% of China's total assets is accounted for, this causes the operating cost of enterprise to steeply rise, the enterprise being unfavorable for Sustainable development.

At present, China's oil petrochemical industry mainly adopts the traditional maintenance mode such as correction maintenance and preventive maintenance.And with Petroleum and petrochemical industry device maximized increasingly, complicate and serialization production, enterprise is to the requirement in terms of maintenance management also increasingly High.Traditional maintenance mode relies primarily on the experience of maintainer, rather than according to the real use state of equipment, use condition and The failure risk of equipment is easily produced the phenomenon that maintenance is superfluous and maintenance is not enough keeping in repair, not only, and is not accounted for Fault is to society and the order of severity of environmental effect.Therefore, equipment dependability how is effectively improved, is reduced enterprise maintenance and take With accomplishing that reliability and the balance of economy have become the matter of utmost importance faced by modern petroleum petroleum chemical enterprise checking maintenance.

Content of the invention

For solving above-mentioned technical problem, present invention offer is a kind of can be according to the real use state of equipment, use condition The Economic Evaluation side of the petrochemical plant time between overhauls(TBO) with the failure risk of equipment to be keeped in repair to petrochemical plant Method.

The technical solution used in the present invention is:

The present invention provides a kind of Economic Analysis Method of petrochemical plant time between overhauls(TBO), including:Collection is with regard to oil The health data of chemical plant installations, the health data according to collection is overhauled to the petrochemical plant to set Most long time between overhauls(TBO) T;Determine that the overhaul cost in each time between overhauls(TBO) n, annual unplanned parking loss reduction bring Income and annual energy consumption reduce the income that brings;Based on a determination that overhaul cost, annual unplanned parking loss reduce band The income that comes and annual energy consumption reduce the income that brings, and determine the annual cost in each time between overhauls(TBO) using the method for discounting NPV(n);Based on a determination that annual cost NPV (n), choose the time between overhauls(TBO) corresponding to optimal annual cost as most The excellent time between overhauls(TBO);Wherein, time between overhauls(TBO) n represents and every n, the petrochemical plant is overhauled, n=1,2 ... T.

Alternatively, based on a determination that overhaul cost, annual unplanned parking loss reduce the income that brings and annual Energy consumption reduces the income brought, concrete the step of determine annual cost NPV (n) in each time between overhauls(TBO) n using the method for discounting Including:Based on a determination that overhaul cost, annual unplanned parking loss reduces the income that brings and annual energy consumption reduces band The income that comes determining non-overhaul annual earnings and overhaul annual earnings, the unplanned parking loss of wherein non-overhaul annual earnings=annual Reduce the income+annual energy consumption that brings and reduce the income that brings, overhaul annual earnings=annual unplanned parking loss reduces The income that brings+annual energy consumption reduces the income-overhaul cost for bringing;Based on a determination that non-overhaul annual earnings and overhaul year receive Benefit, calculates year present worth N (t) after discounting, wherein, Wherein r is for discounting Rate, t=1,2 ... n;Based on year present worth N (t) after discounting, calculate annual cost NPV (n) in each time between overhauls(TBO) n= ∑ N (i)/n, i=1,2 ... n.

Alternatively, the overhaul cost includes checking maintenance expense, planned driving expense, planned Parking Fee and overhaul Idle cost expense.

Alternatively, the checking maintenance expense, planned driving expense, planned Parking Fee are based on practical situation come really Fixed, the overhaul idle cost expense is equal to overhaul time, time between overhauls(TBO) modifying factor, the product of daily profit three.

Alternatively, the unplanned loss of stopping reduce the income brought by the annual unplanned stop frequency for reducing and Each unplanned parking loses to determine.

Alternatively, the unplanned stop frequency of the annual minimizing is with the operation conditions of petrochemical plant and dynamic more Newly, each unplanned parking loss is based on the risk class situation of petrochemical plant determining.

Alternatively, the energy consumption reduces the income that brings dynamic renewal with the operation conditions of petrochemical plant.

Another embodiment of the present invention also provides a kind of optimum petrochemical plant time between overhauls(TBO) evaluation system, including:Inspection Cycle set module is repaiied, the health data with regard to petrochemical plant is gathered, set according to the health data of collection The fixed most long time between overhauls(TBO) T overhauled by the petrochemical plant;Expense and income determining module, determine each maintenance week Overhaul cost in phase n, annual unplanned parking loss reduce the income that brings and annual energy consumption reduces the income that brings; Annual cost determination module, based on a determination that overhaul cost, annual unplanned parking loss reduce the income that brings and per The energy consumption in year reduces the income that brings, and determines annual cost NPV (n) in each time between overhauls(TBO) using the method for discounting, wherein, inspection The cycle n of repairing represents and every n, the petrochemical plant is overhauled, n=1,2 ... T;Optimal repair cycle determining module, Based on a determination that annual cost NPV (n), choose the time between overhauls(TBO) corresponding to optimal annual cost as optimum maintenance week Phase.

Alternatively, the annual cost determination module determines the annual in each time between overhauls(TBO) based on following steps Cost NPV (n):Based on a determination that overhaul cost, annual unplanned parking loss reduce the income and annual energy consumption that brings Reduce the income brought to determine non-overhaul annual earnings and overhaul annual earnings, wherein the unplanned of non-overhaul annual earnings=annual is stopped Car loss reduces the income+annual energy consumption that brings and reduces the income that brings, and overhaul annual earnings=annual unplanned parking is damaged Lose the income-overhaul cost for reducing that the income+annual energy consumption minimizing for bringing brings;Based on a determination that non-overhaul annual earnings and big Annual earnings are repaiied, year present worth N (t) after discounting is calculated, wherein, Wherein r For discount rate, t=1,2 ... n;Based on year present worth N (t) after discounting, the annual cost NPV in each time between overhauls(TBO) n is calculated (n)=∑ N (i)/n, i=1,2 ... n.

The determination of the petrochemical plant time between overhauls(TBO) of the present invention is not due to being that the experience for relying on merely maintainer is come really The fixed optimal overhaul life, but the annual cost of each time between overhauls(TBO) is calculated according to the actual operating state of device, choose The time between overhauls(TBO) of annual cost maximum is optimal maintenance cycle, it is contemplated that economy, formulates Strategies of Maintenance to enterprise and gives The economic index for referring to, it is to avoid due to the brought economic loss of micro-judgment error, reduce the maintenance cost of enterprise.

Description of the drawings

Fig. 1 is the flow chart of the optimum petrochemical plant time between overhauls(TBO) evaluation methodology of the present invention.

Fig. 2 is the broad schematic of the evaluation methodology of the optimum petrochemical plant time between overhauls(TBO) of the present invention.

Fig. 3 is the unplanned stop frequency of one embodiment of the invention and overhaul life graph of a relation.

Fig. 4 is the energy consumption of one embodiment of the invention and overhaul life graph of a relation.

Fig. 5 is the structural representation of the optimum petrochemical plant time between overhauls(TBO) evaluation system of the present invention.

Fig. 6 to Figure 12 is the schematic diagram that the optimum petrochemical plant time between overhauls(TBO) of one embodiment of the invention is evaluated.

Specific embodiment

Below in conjunction with accompanying drawing, the specific embodiment of the present invention is described.

【The technological thought of the present invention】

The technological thought of the present invention is reduced by calculating the overhaul cost in each time between overhauls(TBO), unplanned parking loss The income that brings and energy consumption reduce the income that brings, and then calculate the year of the present worth sum that this three is folded to actual overhaul year Meansigma methodss, choose annual mean maximum corresponding to time between overhauls(TBO) as petrochemical plant optimal repair cycle, i.e., in fact The border time between overhauls(TBO).

It should be noted that after the present invention is read, those skilled in the art can based on the operation situation of enterprise and The operation conditions of the petrochemical equipment bearing device of enterprise come determine the overhaul cost in each time between overhauls(TBO), unplanned parking loss Reduce the income that brings and energy consumption reduces the income that brings.

【Optimum petrochemical plant time between overhauls(TBO) evaluation methodology】

As shown in figure 1, the optimum petrochemical plant time between overhauls(TBO) evaluation methodology that one embodiment of the invention is provided can be wrapped Include following steps:

S101:The data of the operation conditions with regard to petrochemical plant are gathered, is set according to the health data of collection Fixed most long time between overhauls(TBO) T;

S102:Determine that the overhaul cost in each time between overhauls(TBO) n, unplanned parking loss reduce the income and energy consumption that brings Reduce the income that brings;

S103:Based on a determination that overhaul cost, annual unplanned parking loss reduce the income and annual energy that brings The income that depletion is brought less, determines annual cost NPV (n) in each time between overhauls(TBO) n using the method for discounting;

S104:Based on a determination that annual cost NPV (n), choose the time between overhauls(TBO) corresponding to maximum annual cost As the actual time between overhauls(TBO).

Wherein, in above-mentioned steps, time between overhauls(TBO) n represents and every n, petrochemical plant is overhauled, n=1, 2 ... T, for example, n=2 represents in the 2nd year and proceeds by maintenance, every 2 years, petrochemical plant is once overhauled later.

Hereinafter, above-mentioned steps S101 to S104 is specifically described.

S101:The data of the operation conditions with regard to petrochemical plant are gathered, is set according to the health data of collection Fixed most long time between overhauls(TBO) T

Specifically, the data of the operation conditions of petrochemical plant with regard to enterprise can be gathered, according to the operation shape of collection Condition data are then based on gathering the operation situation of enterprise and the operation of the petrochemical equipment of enterprise setting most long time between overhauls(TBO) T Status data, such as can be according to the economic situation of enterprise, following strategical planning, the operation of equipment setting most long time between overhauls(TBO) T Situation etc. is making a suitably most long time between overhauls(TBO).

S102:Determine that the overhaul cost in each time between overhauls(TBO) n, unplanned parking loss reduce the income and energy consumption that brings Reduce the income that brings

1. overhaul cost is determined

Determine that overhaul cost refers to determine the maintenance cost that occurs then of overhaul, it may include checking maintenance expense, planned Driving expense, planned Parking Fee and overhaul idle cost (as shown in Figure 2), i.e. overhaul cost=plan driving expense+meter Draw Parking Fee+overhaul idle time cost+checking maintenance expense.Calculating to this little expense is introduced individually below.

(1) checking maintenance expense.Can be formulated according to overhaul effectiveness, finally by the equipment checking maintenance rolling planning module of enterprise Read in or fitting draws.

Overhaul effectiveness refers to the effect brought by formulated Strategies of Maintenance, i.e., different Strategies of Maintenances can produce difference Maintenance effect.Checking maintenance expense can be determined according to overhaul effectiveness, specific determination step can be based on practical situation come really Fixed, usually overhaul effectiveness is higher, represents that maintenance prepares more abundant, needs time (overhaul natural law) meeting of maintenance longer, Corresponding checking maintenance expense can be higher.In one embodiment of this invention, the Strategies of Maintenance that is formulated by vivider embodiment Effectiveness, is represented using overhaul availability factor, i.e., represent overhaul by giving the different numerical value of overhaul availability factor The grade of effectiveness, in one example, 0.2 represents worst, and 1 represents best.Overhaul effectiveness, checking maintenance expense, overhaul natural law Can be as shown in table 1 below with the relation of overhaul availability factor.

The relation table of 1 checking maintenance expense of table and overhaul effectiveness

Overhaul effectiveness (Strategies of Maintenance) Checking maintenance expense Overhaul natural law Overhaul availability factor To no effect (interim overhaul) a a1 0.2 Difference (general preparation routine overhaul) b b1 0.4 Typically effective (adequate preparation routine overhaul) c c1 0.6 Generally effectively (typically preparing based on risk overhaul) d d1 0.8 Height effectively (adequate preparation is based on risk overhaul) e e1 1

Remarks:The concrete numerical value of checking maintenance expense and overhaul natural law in table 1 needs to be given based on practical situation, i.e. enterprise Can be determined according to practical situation.

(2) planned driving expense, needs enterprise to be determined according to practical situation.

(3) planned Parking Fee, needs enterprise to be determined according to practical situation.

(4) overhaul idle cost expense can be determined according to following formula:Overhaul idle cost expense=overhaul time × inspection Repair the profit of the cycle correction factor × daily.

Wherein, the overhaul time can be obtained according to above-mentioned table 1, and typically, on the premise of identical effectiveness, the time between overhauls(TBO) gets over Long, the time of overhaul is longer.Time between overhauls(TBO) modifying factor is the correction factor to the time between overhauls(TBO), refers to the time between overhauls(TBO) Increase, the coefficient that the maintenance cost in the overhaul time is consequently increased, the general time between overhauls(TBO) is longer, the corresponding time between overhauls(TBO) is revised The factor is also bigger, and time between overhauls(TBO) modifying factor can be determined according to the specific time between overhauls(TBO), in one embodiment of this invention, inspection The relation that repaiies between the cycle correction factor and time between overhauls(TBO) n can be as shown in table 2 below.

2 time between overhauls(TBO) of table modifying factor

Daily profit can be based on the profit of daily crude runs and oil per ton calculating, daily profit=daily Crude runs × per ton oil profit, the profit of oil per ton and daily crude runs can be determined based on practical situation.

2. determine that unplanned stop frequency reduces the income that brings

In the present invention, unplanned stop frequency reduce the income that brings refer to due to carried out maintenance to equipment and to enterprise The minimizing number of times of the unplanned stop frequency that industry is brought.Annual unplanned stop frequency in each time between overhauls(TBO) n reduces band The income that comes can be lost for the annual unplanned stop frequency × each unplanned parking for reducing.

(1) the annual unplanned stop frequency for reducing

With the growth of operation hours, the unplanned stop frequency of equipment can increase.Need to being run based on equipment Unplanned stop frequency record be fitted, matched curve can with equipment operation can dynamic update.

For example:With 3 years as a time between overhauls(TBO).1-6 month of First Year, the unplanned parking of statistics is 1 time;First 7-12 month of year, the unplanned parking of statistics is 2 times, 1-6 month of Second Year, and the unplanned parking of statistics is 3 times; 7-12 month of Second Year, the unplanned parking of statistics is 5 times, and 1-6 month of the 3rd year, the unplanned parking of statistics was 5 times;7-12 month of 3rd year, the unplanned parking of statistics is 6 times.Then by the unplanned stop frequency 1 of statistics, 2,3,5, 5th, 6 these points carry out direct line or least square fitting.Here matched curve can with the operation of equipment can dynamic more Newly refer to:With ever-increasing statistics point, curve ceaselessly can change.

In the present invention, unplanned stop frequency curve can be divided into before overhaul two kinds of Pa (t) after Pb (t) and overhaul.

In the present invention, after overhaul, unplanned parking probability curve is represented by:Pa (t)=Pb (t)-(Pb (t)-Pmin) × IF, wherein, Pmin is minimum unplanned parking probability, unit times/year;IF is overhaul availability factor;T is time between overhauls(TBO) n Interior year, t=1,2 ... n, n=1,2 ... T.

Wherein, Programmed Stop probability P min can be enterprise expectations numerical value, for example, can according to annual annual index etc. come Determine, before overhaul, unplanned stop frequency curve can determine according to practical situation, overhaul availability factor IF can root for Pb (t) Determine according to aforementioned table 1.

Can be after calculating overhaul in the time between overhauls(TBO), every according to unplanned stop frequency curve Pb (t) before and after overhaul and Pa (t) Unplanned stop frequency P (t)=(Pb (the t)-Pa (t)) that year is reduced.

The present invention is illustrated by taking simplest linear relationship as an example, as shown in figure 3, unplanned stop frequency and overhaul week Relation between phase t is simple linear relationship, and the most long overhaul life for illustrating in Fig. 3 is 8 years, but is not limited thereto.

Understand with reference to Fig. 3:1) before overhaul, unplanned parking probability is higher, and after overhaul, stop frequency reduces.With two annual overhauls one As a example by secondary, for each time between overhauls(TBO), unplanned parking probability curve is all identical, therefore can only choose 1 maintenance week Phase is for calculating object.2) if not overhaul, unplanned stop frequency is that Pb (t), after overhaul, unplanned parking natural law is reduced to every year Pa (t), the unplanned number of times for reducing that stops is Pb (t)-Pa (t).

(2) each unplanned parking loss

Each unplanned parking loss may include unplanned driving, parking and unplanned shutdown loss.

Wherein, unplanned drive loss and unplanned loss of stopping, can draw according to the practical situation of enterprise.

Unplanned shutdown loss=each unplanned shutdown hourage × profit hourly.Unplanned parking hour every time Number, can be by being determined based on appliance arrangement risk class situation.General device risk class is higher, and unplanned parking is little every time When number accordingly can increase.Appliance arrangement risk class can determine the wind of equipment according to the maintenance (RCM) centered on reliability Dangerous grade, generally can be divided into A, B, C class, and it is high and middle high equipment that wherein A class corresponds to risk class, and B class corresponds to risk class For in equipment, C class correspond to risk class be low equipment, it is CN that specific risk class determines that method see notification number such as Content disclosed in 103632058 A, the Chinese patent application of entitled " bearing device dynamic risk assessment system ".Per Profit/24 of the crude runs × oil per ton of hour loss of income=daily.

In this way, each unplanned parking loss can be calculated:Each unplanned parking loss=unplanned driving expense+ Unplanned Parking Fee+unplanned shutdown loss.

So, unplanned stop frequency every year is obtained and reduces the income that brings, unplanned stop frequency reduces band every year The income that comes=annual unplanned stop frequency × each unplanned parking for reducing is lost

3. determine that energy consumption reduces the income that brings

Energy consumption may include fuel, power and thermal output.With the growth of operation hours, energy consumption can increase, and it is right to need The energy consumption record fitting of equipment operation, and matched curve can be according to the dynamic renewal of the service data of equipment, energy consumption record fitting As aforementioned unplanned stop frequency record fitting.

Energy consumption reduce the income brought can according to petrochemical equipment using single ton of oily energy consumption calculating.Single ton of oily energy Consumption curve can be divided into before overhaul two kinds of ea (t) after eb (t) and overhaul, and after overhaul, single ton of oily energy consumption curve is represented by:Ea (t)= eb(t)-(eb(t)-emin)×IF.

Wherein, emin is single ton of oily lowest energy consumption, unit for yuan/ton, can be drawn according to practical situation;T is maintenance week Phase;IF is overhaul availability factor, can be drawn according to above-mentioned table 1;T is the year in time between overhauls(TBO) n, t=1,2 ... n, n=1, 2 ... T.

First, before determining overhaul, single ton of oily energy consumption versus time curve is eb (t).Then, according to energy before and after overhaul Consumption curve eb (t) and ea (t), after calculating overhaul, in the time between overhauls(TBO), annual energy consumption reduces income E (t)=(eb (the t)-ea for bringing (t)) × daily crude runs × mono- year natural law (such as 365).

The present invention is illustrated by taking simplest linear relationship as an example, as shown in figure 4, the energy consumption of oil per ton and overhaul life Relation between t is simple linear relationship, and the most long overhaul life for illustrating in Fig. 4 is 8 years, but is not limited thereto.

Understand with reference to Fig. 4:(1) before overhaul, energy consumption is higher, and after overhaul, energy consumption reduces.By two annual overhauls once as a example by, for per One time between overhauls(TBO), energy consumption curve is all identical, therefore for the sake of simplicity, chooses 1 time between overhauls(TBO) for calculating object.(2) If not overhaul, single ton of oily energy consumption is that eb (t), after overhaul, single ton of oily energy consumption is that ea (t), single ton oily energy consumption reduces income for eb (t)-ea(t).

S103:Based on a determination that overhaul cost, annual unplanned parking loss reduce the income and annual energy that brings The income that depletion is brought less, determines annual cost NPV (n) in each time between overhauls(TBO) n using the method for discounting

Specifically, S103 may include following steps:

(1) based on a determination that overhaul cost, annual unplanned parking loss reduce the income and annual energy consumption that brings Reduce the income brought to calculate non-overhaul annual earnings and overhaul annual earnings, wherein the unplanned of non-overhaul annual earnings=annual is stopped Car loss reduces the income+annual energy consumption that brings and reduces the income that brings, and overhaul annual earnings=annual unplanned parking is damaged Lose the income-overhaul cost for reducing that the income+annual energy consumption minimizing for bringing brings.

(2) based on a determination that non-overhaul annual earnings and overhaul annual earnings, calculate discount after year present worth N (t), that is, calculate inspection Repairing each year present worth in cycle n, that is to say, that each year present worth was year by year calculated for 1 year to n from time t.

Wherein, (income in non-overhaul year or the income in overhaul year) × year in year present worth N (t) after discounting=annual earnings rolls over Existing coefficient, wherein, on the basis of overhaul year, year discount factor can beWherein r is discount rate, t=1,2 ... n, soWherein r is discount rate, t=1,2 ... n, and discount rate can be according to enterprise's phase Hope profit to determine.

If the time between overhauls(TBO) for setting was as 2 years, it is within the 1st year overhaul year, then N (1)=overhaul annual earnings × year discount factor. Assume that overhaul annual earnings are 1,000,000 yuan, understand that year discount factor is according to year discount factor formulaThen N (1) Ten thousand yuan of=100 × 1.1=110.N (2)=non- overhaul annual earnings × year discount factor, it is assumed that non-overhaul annual earnings are 1,200,000 yuan, Understand that year discount factor is according to year discount factor formulaThen N (2)=120 × 0.826=99.12 ten thousand Unit.

(3) based on year present worth N (t) after discounting, annual cost NPV (the n)=∑ N in each time between overhauls(TBO) n is calculated (i)/n, i=1,2 ... n.

S104:Based on a determination that annual cost NPV (n), choose the time between overhauls(TBO) corresponding to maximum annual cost As the actual time between overhauls(TBO)

Annual cost in each time between overhauls(TBO) that comparison step S103 is calculated, that is, be respectively compared NVP (1), NPV (2), NVP (3) ... NPV (n), chooses maximum annual cost, is formulated as follows:

MAX=Max NVP (1), NPV (2), NVP (3) ... NPV (n), n=1,2 ... T

When selecting NPV (n) value maximum, the corresponding time between overhauls(TBO) is optimal repair cycle, and the NPV by each time between overhauls(TBO) N () value is exported, for enterprise with reference to use.

【Optimum petrochemical plant time between overhauls(TBO) evaluation system】

Another embodiment of the present invention provides a kind of optimum petrochemical plant time between overhauls(TBO) evaluation system, as shown in figure 5, May include:Time between overhauls(TBO) setting module 1, gathers the data of the operation conditions with regard to petrochemical plant, according to the operation of collection Status data is setting the most long time between overhauls(TBO) T overhauled by the petrochemical plant;Expense and income determining module 2, Determine that the overhaul cost in each time between overhauls(TBO) n, annual unplanned parking loss reduce the income and annual energy consumption that brings Reduce the income that brings;Annual cost determination module 3, based on a determination that overhaul cost, annual unplanned parking loss drop The income that low strap comes and annual energy consumption reduce the income that brings, and determine that the annual in each time between overhauls(TBO) becomes using the method for discounting This NPV (n), wherein, time between overhauls(TBO) n represents and every n, the petrochemical plant is overhauled, n=1,2 ... T;Optimum Time between overhauls(TBO) determining module 4, based on a determination that annual cost NPV (n), choose the maintenance corresponding to optimal annual cost Cycle is used as optimal repair cycle.

The annual cost determination module 3 can determine the annual cost in each time between overhauls(TBO) based on following steps NPV(n):Based on a determination that overhaul cost, annual unplanned parking loss reduces the income that brings and annual energy consumption is reduced The income that brings is determining non-overhaul annual earnings and overhaul annual earnings, and wherein non-overhaul annual earnings=annual unplanned parking is damaged The income for reducing that the income+annual energy consumption minimizing for bringing brings is lost, overhaul annual earnings=annual unplanned parking loss is dropped The income that low strap comes+annual energy consumption reduces the income-overhaul cost for bringing;Based on a determination that non-overhaul annual earnings and overhaul year Income, calculates year present worth N (t) after discounting, wherein, Wherein r is for discounting Rate, t=1,2 ... n;Based on year present worth N (t) after discounting, calculate annual cost NPV (n) in each time between overhauls(TBO) n= ∑ N (i)/n, i=1,2 ... n.

Optimum maintenance week of the optimum petrochemical plant time between overhauls(TBO) evaluation system of the present embodiment to petrochemical plant The concrete determination method of phase is as the petrochemical plant time between overhauls(TBO) evaluation methodology of above-mentioned optimum, and for avoiding repeating, here is saved Slightly which is discussed in detail.

【Embodiment】

Certain Petrochemical Enterprises atmospheric and vacuum distillation unit needs to carry out large repairs, and in the overhaul time for setting as on June 1st, 2008, plan is big Natural law is repaiied for 14 days, overhaul effectiveness is typically effective, enterprise estimation storehouse and enterprise's rolling planning of Data Source and the enterprise. The unplanned parking information for lasting is obtained in data base as shown in fig. 6, obtained from data base lasts energy consumption curve such as Fig. 7 Shown, it is 8 years according to these information settings most long time between overhauls(TBO).

Fig. 8 to Figure 12 is the schematic diagram of the net present value (NPV) according to the overhaul effectiveness for selecting to calculate respectively, and wherein Fig. 8 is big The net present value (NPV) to no effect calculated by effect Sexual behavior mode is had, is understood with reference to Fig. 8, the optimum time between overhauls(TBO) is 2 years.Fig. 9 is for having greatly The net present value (NPV) calculated by effect Sexual behavior mode difference, understands with reference to Fig. 9, the optimum time between overhauls(TBO) is 2 years.Figure 10 selects one for overhaul effectiveness As the net present value (NPV) that effectively calculated, understand with reference to Figure 10, the optimum time between overhauls(TBO) is 3 years.Figure 11 is normal for overhaul effectiveness gating The net present value (NPV) for effectively being calculated, understands with reference to Figure 11, and the optimum time between overhauls(TBO) is 2 years.Figure 12 has for overhaul effectiveness choosing height The calculated net present value (NPV) of effect, understands with reference to Figure 12, and the optimum time between overhauls(TBO) is 2 years.

Device embodiment described above is only that schematically wherein the unit for illustrating as separating component can To be or may not be physically separate, as the part that unit shows can be or may not be physics list Unit, you can be located at a place, or can also be distributed on multiple NEs.Which is selected according to the actual needs can In some or all of module realizing the purpose of this embodiment scheme.Those of ordinary skill in the art are not paying creativeness Work in the case of, you can to understand and implement.

Through the above description of the embodiments, those skilled in the art can be understood that each embodiment can Mode by software plus required general hardware platform is realizing, naturally it is also possible to by hardware.Based on such understanding, on State the part that technical scheme substantially contributes prior art in other words to embody in the form of software product, should Computer software product can be stored in a computer-readable storage medium, such as ROM/RAM, magnetic disc, CD etc., including some fingers Order is used so that a computer equipment (can be personal computer, server, or network equipment etc.) executes each enforcement Method described in some parts of example or embodiment.

Finally it should be noted that:Above example only in order to technical scheme to be described, rather than a limitation;Although With reference to the foregoing embodiments the present invention is described in detail, it will be understood by those within the art that:Which still may be used To modify to the technical scheme described in foregoing embodiments, or equivalent is carried out to which part technical characteristic; And these modification or replace, do not make appropriate technical solution essence depart from various embodiments of the present invention technical scheme spirit and Scope.

Claims (9)

1. a kind of optimum petrochemical plant time between overhauls(TBO) evaluation methodology, it is characterised in that include:
The health data with regard to petrochemical plant is gathered, is set to the oil according to the health data of collection The most long time between overhauls(TBO) T overhauled by chemical plant installations;
Determine that the overhaul cost in each time between overhauls(TBO) n, annual unplanned parking loss reduce the income that brings and annual Energy consumption reduces the income that brings;
Based on a determination that overhaul cost, annual unplanned parking loss reduces the income that brings and annual energy consumption reduces and brings Income, determine annual cost NPV (n) in each time between overhauls(TBO) using the method for discounting;
Based on a determination that annual cost NPV (n), choose the time between overhauls(TBO) corresponding to optimal annual cost as optimum maintenance Cycle;
Wherein, time between overhauls(TBO) n represents and every n, the petrochemical plant is overhauled, n=1,2 ... T.
2. optimum according to claim 1 petrochemical plant time between overhauls(TBO) evaluation methodology, it is characterised in that based on a determination that Overhaul cost, annual unplanned parking loss reduces the income that brings and annual energy consumption reduces the income that brings, utilize The step of method of discounting determines annual cost NPV (n) in each time between overhauls(TBO) n is specifically included:
Based on a determination that overhaul cost, annual unplanned parking loss reduces the income that brings and annual energy consumption reduces and brings Income determining non-overhaul annual earnings and overhaul annual earnings, the unplanned parking loss drop of wherein non-overhaul annual earnings=annual The income that low strap comes+annual energy consumption reduces the income that brings, and overhaul annual earnings=annual unplanned parking loss reduces band The income that comes+annual energy consumption reduces the income-overhaul cost for bringing;
Based on a determination that non-overhaul annual earnings and overhaul annual earnings, calculate discount after year present worth N (t), wherein,Wherein r is discount rate, t=1,2 ... n;
Based on year present worth N (t) after discounting, annual cost NPV (n)=∑ N (i)/n, the i in each time between overhauls(TBO) n is calculated =1,2 ... n.
3. the Economic Analysis Method of petrochemical plant time between overhauls(TBO) according to claim 1, it is characterised in that described Overhaul cost includes checking maintenance expense, planned driving expense, planned Parking Fee and overhaul idle cost expense.
4. the Economic Analysis Method of petrochemical plant time between overhauls(TBO) according to claim 3, it is characterised in that described Checking maintenance expense, planned driving expense, planned Parking Fee determine based on practical situation, the overhaul idle cost is taken With the product for being equal to overhaul time, time between overhauls(TBO) modifying factor, daily profit three.
5. optimum according to claim 1 petrochemical plant time between overhauls(TBO) evaluation methodology, it is characterised in that the non-meter Draw loss of stopping reduce the income brought by the annual unplanned stop frequency for reducing and each unplanned parking loss come Determine.
6. the Economic Analysis Method of petrochemical plant time between overhauls(TBO) according to claim 5, it is characterised in that described The annual unplanned stop frequency for reducing with petrochemical plant operation conditions and dynamic updates, described each unplanned Risk class situation of the loss based on petrochemical plant stop determining.
7. optimum according to claim 1 petrochemical plant time between overhauls(TBO) evaluation methodology, it is characterised in that the energy consumption Reduce the income that brings dynamic renewal with the operation conditions of petrochemical plant.
8. a kind of optimum petrochemical plant time between overhauls(TBO) evaluation system, it is characterised in that include:
Time between overhauls(TBO) setting module, gathers the health data with regard to petrochemical plant, according to the operation conditions number of collection According to setting the most long time between overhauls(TBO) T overhauled by the petrochemical plant;
Expense and income determining module, determine that the overhaul cost in each time between overhauls(TBO) n, annual unplanned parking loss reduce The income that brings and annual energy consumption reduce the income that brings;
Annual cost determination module, based on a determination that overhaul cost, annual unplanned parking loss reduce the income that brings Reducing the income that brings with annual energy consumption, annual cost NPV (n) in each time between overhauls(TBO) is determined using the method for discounting, its In, time between overhauls(TBO) n represents and every n, the petrochemical plant is overhauled, n=1,2 ... T;
Optimal repair cycle determining module, based on a determination that annual cost NPV (n), choose optimal annual cost institute right The time between overhauls(TBO) that answers is used as optimal repair cycle.
9. according to claim 8 optimum petrochemical plant time between overhauls(TBO) evaluation system, it is characterised in that the year put down All cost determination module determine annual cost NPV (n) in each time between overhauls(TBO) based on following steps:
Based on a determination that overhaul cost, annual unplanned parking loss reduces the income that brings and annual energy consumption reduces and brings Income determining non-overhaul annual earnings and overhaul annual earnings, the unplanned parking loss drop of wherein non-overhaul annual earnings=annual The income that low strap comes+annual energy consumption reduces the income that brings, and overhaul annual earnings=annual unplanned parking loss reduces band The income that comes+annual energy consumption reduces the income-overhaul cost for bringing;
Based on a determination that non-overhaul annual earnings and overhaul annual earnings, calculate discount after year present worth N (t), wherein,Wherein r is discount rate, t=1,2 ... n;
Based on year present worth N (t) after discounting, annual cost NPV (n)=∑ N (i)/n, the i in each time between overhauls(TBO) n is calculated =1,2 ... n.
CN201610842954.6A 2016-09-22 2016-09-22 Optimal maintenance period evaluation method and system of petrochemical device CN106447100A (en)

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Citations (2)

* Cited by examiner, † Cited by third party
Publication number Priority date Publication date Assignee Title
CN102360467A (en) * 2011-10-12 2012-02-22 西安交通大学 Method for generating long-term maintenance strategy of electric distribution system in view of ageing properties of element
CN104636826A (en) * 2015-01-27 2015-05-20 中国石油化工股份有限公司 Method for optimizing reliability and maintenance strategy of chemical refining equipment

Patent Citations (2)

* Cited by examiner, † Cited by third party
Publication number Priority date Publication date Assignee Title
CN102360467A (en) * 2011-10-12 2012-02-22 西安交通大学 Method for generating long-term maintenance strategy of electric distribution system in view of ageing properties of element
CN104636826A (en) * 2015-01-27 2015-05-20 中国石油化工股份有限公司 Method for optimizing reliability and maintenance strategy of chemical refining equipment

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Application publication date: 20170222