CN105512810B - Electricity market risk income analysis method - Google Patents

Electricity market risk income analysis method Download PDF

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Publication number
CN105512810B
CN105512810B CN201510869762.XA CN201510869762A CN105512810B CN 105512810 B CN105512810 B CN 105512810B CN 201510869762 A CN201510869762 A CN 201510869762A CN 105512810 B CN105512810 B CN 105512810B
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power
equipment
fault
breaks
name
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CN105512810A (en
Inventor
王璟
李鹏
王利利
李秋燕
李锰
李科
蒋小亮
郭勇
全少理
孙义豪
丁岩
杨卓
关朝杰
郭璞
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State Grid Corp of China SGCC
Economic and Technological Research Institute of State Grid Henan Electric Power Co Ltd
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State Grid Corp of China SGCC
Economic and Technological Research Institute of State Grid Henan Electric Power Co Ltd
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    • GPHYSICS
    • G06COMPUTING; CALCULATING; COUNTING
    • G06QDATA PROCESSING SYSTEMS OR METHODS, SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL, SUPERVISORY OR FORECASTING PURPOSES; SYSTEMS OR METHODS SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL, SUPERVISORY OR FORECASTING PURPOSES, NOT OTHERWISE PROVIDED FOR
    • G06Q10/00Administration; Management
    • G06Q10/06Resources, workflows, human or project management, e.g. organising, planning, scheduling or allocating time, human or machine resources; Enterprise planning; Organisational models
    • G06Q10/063Operations research or analysis
    • G06Q10/0635Risk analysis
    • GPHYSICS
    • G06COMPUTING; CALCULATING; COUNTING
    • G06QDATA PROCESSING SYSTEMS OR METHODS, SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL, SUPERVISORY OR FORECASTING PURPOSES; SYSTEMS OR METHODS SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL, SUPERVISORY OR FORECASTING PURPOSES, NOT OTHERWISE PROVIDED FOR
    • G06Q50/00Systems or methods specially adapted for specific business sectors, e.g. utilities or tourism
    • G06Q50/06Electricity, gas or water supply

Abstract

The present invention provides a kind of Electricity market risk income analysis method, and detection participates in whether the electric power primary equipment of power market transaction breaks down;Detection participates in whether power market transaction second power equipment breaks down;According to the electric power primary equipment detected and the fault message of second power equipment, analyze the O&M cost of the power equipment participating in market transaction.Under the mode of power market that Generation Side is introduced competition mechanism, the target of Power Generation risk management is the undulatory property eliminating its profit gained, the present invention is by monitoring and the fault detect in real time participating in market transaction electric power primary equipment and second power equipment, data support is provided for power market transaction analysis, when equipment breaks down, by electricity market power system planned and dispatch, more reasonably configure resource, improve resource utilization, avoid the energy waste caused because of equipment fault to make profit produce undulatory property simultaneously, improve the benefit of power market transaction, positive risk prevention measure is provided for power market transaction.

Description

Electricity market risk income analysis method
Technical field
The present invention relates to technical field of electric power, be specifically related to a kind of Electricity market risk income analysis method.
Background technology
Electricity market includes broad sense and two kinds of implications of narrow sense.The electricity market of broad sense refer to power generation, transmit, use and The summation of sale relation.The electricity market of narrow sense i.e. refers to emulative electricity market, is that electrical energy production person and user are by association Business, the mode such as bid are traded with regard to electric energy and Related product thereof, are set price by the market competition and the mechanism of quantity.And it is electric Factory be by some form of original can be converted into electric energy for fixation means or transport electricity consumption dynamics factory, such as waterpower, steam, Diesel oil or nuclear plant etc..Under the mode of power market that Generation Side is introduced competition mechanism, the target of power plant risk management It it is the undulatory property eliminating its profit gained.And the damage that the manager in power plant is potential during allowing for assessing power plant operation Lose.
Summary of the invention
Based on the deficiencies in the prior art, the present invention provides a kind of Electricity market risk income analysis method, in order to according to fortune The operating mode situation of power equipment during dimension, it is judged that the operating cost of power equipment and the risk-return analysis of electricity market.
For reaching above-mentioned purpose, the present invention adopts the following technical scheme that
A kind of Electricity market risk income analysis method, comprises the steps:
Whether detection electric power primary equipment breaks down, if breaking down, then sends fault message, and background monitoring center connects After receiving fault message, equipment overhauled and safeguards, and recording device name, fault time and the maintenance expense broken down With;If not breaking down, then return and again detect;
Whether detection second power equipment breaks down, if breaking down, then sends fault message, and background monitoring center connects After receiving fault message, equipment overhauled and safeguards, and recording device name, fault time and the maintenance expense broken down With;If not breaking down, then return and again detect;
According to the electric power primary equipment detected and the fault message of second power equipment, the O&M analyzing power equipment becomes This;
Described electric power primary equipment includes defeated modified line road high-voltage switch gear;Whether described detection defeated modified line road high-voltage switch gear occurs Fault, including: obtaining the parameter of defeated modified line road high-voltage switch gear, record high-voltage switch gear closes a floodgate, switching winding electric current, is closed by analysis Stroke curve in lock, the waveform of switching winding electric current and switch motion, it is judged that the switch of high-voltage switch gear is electrically and mechanical property Whether break down.
Preferably, the defeated modified line road that described defeated modified line road high-voltage switch gear connects uses carbon-fibre wire;Described carbon fiber guiding Line includes electric conduction of carbon fiber core body, is wrapped in the peripheral ring-shaped conductive layer of core body and is wrapped in the insulation that ring-shaped conductive layer is peripheral Layer;Described ring-shaped conductive layer is surrounded core body periphery and constitutes by alloy lead wire, and described alloy lead wire is by following percetage by weight Composition forms: Zr:0.01-0.03%;Cu:0.1-0.15%;Fe:0.95-0.98%;Ti:0.003-0.005%, Zn:0.03- 0.05%, Mn:0.04-0.05%;Reinforcing agent: 0.1-0.2%;Mg:0.02-0.1%;Ti:0.01%-0.05%;RE:0.05- 0.08%;B:0.1%-0.2%, surplus is Al and inevitable impurity;
Described reinforcing agent is made up of following percentage by weight raw material: boron 1-2%, aluminium oxide 20-25%, lithium oxide 5-6%, Sodium oxide 3-5% and magnesium oxide 4-8%, copper powder 1-2%, glass putty 0.5-1.5% and zinc oxide 0.3-1%, surplus is titanium dioxide Silicon;The granularity of described raw material is all less than 10 microns.
Preferably, whether described detection second power equipment breaks down, if breaking down, then sends fault message, after After platform Surveillance center receives fault message, equipment overhauled and safeguards, and recording device name, the fault broken down Time and maintenance cost;If not breaking down, then return and again detect, including:
By second power equipment by the numbering name preset, numbering is generated bar code information, and by the electric power two after name Secondary device and bar code information are stored in data base;
Gather the parameter information of second power equipment, the ginseng run by the parameter information collected with the normal device preset Number information contrasts, if in normal parameter range of information, then judges that this second power equipment does not has fault, returns and continue to adopt Collection;If beyond normal parameter range of information, then judging that this second power equipment breaks down, the bar code of scanning second power equipment Information obtains device name, and records device name, fault time and the maintenance cost broken down.
Preferably, described second power equipment includes that power-supply device, described power-supply device include housing, and described housing sets It is equipped with solar panel, in described housing, is provided with charging circuit, accumulator, DC/DC power module and microcontroller;Described Solar panel, charging circuit, accumulator, DC/DC power module and microcontroller are sequentially connected with.
The invention have the benefit that
The present invention is according to the operating mode situation of power equipment in running, to electric power primary equipment and second power equipment Failure condition detects and judges, according to the failure condition of power equipment, it is judged that the O&M cost of power equipment, and with this point The equipment cost of analysis power plant and operating cost, carry out the risk-return analysis of electricity market.Introduce competition mechanism at Generation Side Under mode of power market, the target of power plant risk management is the undulatory property eliminating its profit gained, and the present invention is by electric power Monitoring and the fault detect in real time of primary equipment and second power equipment, provides the operation of power system, scheduling, planning management Foundation, provides data support for power market transaction analysis, when equipment breaks down, by electricity market to power system Plan and dispatch, more reasonably configuring resource, improving resource utilization, avoiding the energy wave caused because of equipment fault simultaneously Take and make profit produce undulatory property, improve the benefit of power market transaction, provide positive risk for power market transaction and prevent Model measure.
In order to reduce the maintenance cost of power equipment and relevant device, the defeated modified line road of the present invention uses carbon fiber composite guide Line, carbon fiber composite conductor is the energy-saving capacity-improving conducting wires of a kind of brand new, and carbon fiber compound electrical transmission line is used for aerial line Road, has the features such as low arc drop, light weight, transmission loss are few, corrosion-resistant, contributes to constructing safe and environment-friendly, efficient economizing transmission of electricity Network, can be widely used for old circuit and the transformation of power station bus capacity-increasing, new line construction, and can be used for Great span, big drop, heavy ice The special climate such as district, high pollution and the circuit of geographical occasion.Applying in newly-built circuit, the unit conveying that can improve circuit is held Amount, it is ensured that the strong property of electrical network, long-term economics is more preferable.
The DC source of power lighting equipment of the present invention, uses the compound mode of solar photovoltaic cell panel and accumulator to give Luminaire is powered, and the solar energy on daytime can be converted into electrical power storage in accumulator by solar photovoltaic cell panel, in case late Upper and cloudy, the rainy day uses, and adopts and need not external power source in this way, has energy-conserving and environment-protective and reduces the effect of cost.
Accompanying drawing explanation
Accompanying drawing is for providing a further understanding of the present invention, and constitutes a part for description, with the reality of the present invention Execute example together for explaining the present invention, be not intended that limitation of the present invention.In the accompanying drawings:
Fig. 1 is the flow chart of the present invention a kind of Electricity market risk income analysis method;
Fig. 2 is the flow chart of the present invention a kind of Electricity market risk income analysis method step S102;
Fig. 3 is the theory diagram of power-supply device of the present invention.
Detailed description of the invention
The invention will be further described with embodiment below in conjunction with the accompanying drawings.
As it is shown in figure 1, embodiments provide a kind of Electricity market risk income analysis method, including walking as follows Rapid:
Step S101, whether detection electric power primary equipment breaks down, if breaking down, then sends fault message, backstage After Surveillance center receives fault message, equipment is overhauled and safeguards, and when recording the device name, the fault that break down Between and maintenance cost;If not breaking down, then return and again detect;
Step S102, whether detection second power equipment breaks down, if breaking down, then sends fault message, backstage After Surveillance center receives fault message, equipment is overhauled and safeguards, and when recording the device name, the fault that break down Between and maintenance cost;If not breaking down, then return and again detect;
Step S103, according to the electric power primary equipment detected and the fault message of second power equipment, analyzes electric power and sets Standby O&M cost.
In this embodiment, electric power, according to the operating mode situation of power equipment in running, is once set by the method for the present invention Standby and second power equipment failure condition detects and judges, according to the failure condition of power equipment, it is judged that power equipment O&M cost, and the equipment cost of analyzing power plant with this and operating cost, carry out the risk-return analysis of electricity market.
In one embodiment, described electric power primary equipment includes defeated modified line road high-voltage switch gear;Described detection defeated modified line road Whether high-voltage switch gear breaks down, including:
Obtaining the parameter of defeated modified line road high-voltage switch gear, record high-voltage switch gear closes a floodgate, switching winding electric current, is closed by analysis Stroke curve in lock, the waveform of switching winding electric current and switch motion, it is judged that the switch of high-voltage switch gear is electrically and mechanical property Whether break down.
In this embodiment, bent according to the stroke in combined floodgate, the waveform of switching winding electric current and the switch motion of high-voltage switch gear Line, it is judged that whether the switch of high-voltage switch gear electrically breaks down with mechanical property.
In one embodiment, the defeated modified line road that described defeated modified line road high-voltage switch gear connects uses carbon-fibre wire;Described Carbon-fibre wire includes electric conduction of carbon fiber core body, is wrapped in the peripheral ring-shaped conductive layer of core body and is wrapped in outside ring-shaped conductive layer The insulating barrier enclosed;Described ring-shaped conductive layer is surrounded core body periphery and constitutes by alloy lead wire, and described alloy lead wire is by following weight The composition composition of percent: Zr:0.01-0.03%;Cu:0.1-0.15%;Fe:0.95-0.98%;Ti:0.003-0.005%, Zn: 0.03-0.05%, Mn:0.04-0.05%;Reinforcing agent: 0.1-0.2%;Mg:0.02-0.1%;Ti:0.01%-0.05%;RE:0.05- 0.08%;B:0.1%-0.2%, surplus is Al and inevitable impurity;
Described reinforcing agent is made up of following percentage by weight raw material: boron 1-2%, aluminium oxide 20-25%, lithium oxide 5-6%, Sodium oxide 3-5% and magnesium oxide 4-8%, copper powder 1-2%, glass putty 0.5-1.5% and zinc oxide 0.3-1%, surplus is titanium dioxide Silicon;The granularity of described raw material is all less than 10 microns.
Alloy lead wire uses and adds Zr, B, Ti, rare earth in the alloy, and B is preferential and impurity combines, and finally reacts with Al, only Having changed melt, improve its electric conductivity, the interpolation of vitrified bond also further increases the electric conductivity of wire.The interpolation of Ti, Can form compound particle with ZrB, this compound particle fusing point is high, and hardness is high, has more preferable heat stability, improves conjunction further The heat resistance of gold.The interpolation of Mn, Mg improves the intensity of alloy.The electrical conductivity of alloy lead wire is more than 63%, and tensile strength exceedes 300MPa。
Embodiment 1
Alloy lead wire is made up of the composition of following percetage by weight: Zr:0.03%;Cu:0.15%;Fe:0.95%;Ti: 0.005%, Zn:0.03%, Mn:0.05%;Reinforcing agent: 0.2%;Mg:0.1%;Ti:0.01;RE:0.08%;B:0.2%, surplus is Al And inevitable impurity;
Described reinforcing agent is made up of following percentage by weight raw material: boron 2%, aluminium oxide 25%, lithium oxide 6%, sodium oxide 5% and magnesium oxide 4%, copper powder 2%, glass putty 0.5% and zinc oxide 1%, surplus is silicon dioxide;The granularity of described raw material is the most not More than 10 microns.
Embodiment 2
Alloy lead wire is made up of the composition of following percetage by weight: Zr:0.01%;Cu:0.1%;Fe:0.98%;Ti: 0.005%, Zn:0.05%, Mn:0.04%;Reinforcing agent: 0.2%;Mg:0.02%;Ti:0.05%;RE:0.05%;B:0.2%, surplus is Al and inevitably impurity;
Described reinforcing agent is made up of following percentage by weight raw material: boron 1%, aluminium oxide 20%, lithium oxide 6%, sodium oxide 3% and magnesium oxide 8%, copper powder 1%, glass putty 0.5% and zinc oxide 1%, surplus is silicon dioxide;The granularity of described raw material is the most not More than 10 microns.
Embodiment 3
Alloy lead wire is made up of the composition of following percetage by weight: Zr:0.023%;Cu:0.12%;Fe:0.96%; Ti0.004%, Zn0.04%, Mn:0.05%;Reinforcing agent: 0.1%;Mg:0.1%;Ti:0.04%;RE:0.06%;B:0.1%, surplus is Al and inevitably impurity;
Described reinforcing agent is made up of following percentage by weight raw material: boron 1%, aluminium oxide 22%, lithium oxide 5%, sodium oxide 4% and magnesium oxide 6%, copper powder 1%, glass putty 1.0% and zinc oxide 0.7%, surplus is silicon dioxide;The granularity of described raw material is equal Less than 10 microns.
Carbon fiber composite conductor is the energy-saving capacity-improving conducting wires of a kind of brand new, and carbon fiber compound electrical transmission line is used for frame Ceases to be busy road, has the features such as low arc drop, light weight, transmission loss be few, corrosion-resistant, contributes to constructing safe and environment-friendly, efficient economizing Power transmission network, can be widely used for old circuit and power station bus capacity-increasing transformation, new line construction, and can be used for Great span, big drop, The special climate such as heavy icing area, high pollution and the circuit of geographical occasion.Apply in newly-built circuit, the unit conveying of circuit can be improved Capacity, it is ensured that the strong property of electrical network, long-term economics is more preferable.
In one embodiment, as in figure 2 it is shown, step S102 may be embodied as following steps:
Step S201, by second power equipment by the numbering name preset, generates bar code information by numbering, and by after name Second power equipment and bar code information be stored in data base;
Step S202, gathers the parameter information of second power equipment, by the most standing with preset for the parameter information collected The parameter information of received shipment row contrasts, if in normal parameter range of information, then judges that this second power equipment does not has fault, Return and continue to gather;If beyond normal parameter range of information, then judging that this second power equipment breaks down, scan Power Secondary The bar code information of equipment obtains device name, and records device name, fault time and the maintenance cost broken down.
In this embodiment, storing the bar code information of second power equipment in advance in data base, this bar code information is to should The title of second power equipment, model, come into operation the date etc., by scanning barcode information, can quickly obtain this electric power two The information of secondary device, bar code information here can be bar code or Quick Response Code.The method is by gathering second power equipment Parameter information, contrasts the parameter information of this parameter information with properly functioning equipment, judges that this Power Secondary sets with this For whether breaking down.
In one embodiment, as it is shown on figure 3, second power equipment includes that power-supply device, described power-supply device include shell Body, described housing is provided with solar panel, is provided with charging circuit, accumulator, DC/DC power module in described housing And microcontroller;Described solar panel, charging circuit, accumulator, DC/DC power module and microcontroller are sequentially connected with.
Enclosure interior is provided with charging circuit, accumulator, DC/DC power module and microcontroller.Solar panel is used In the solar energy on daytime being converted into electrical power storage in accumulator, in case use in the evening with cloudy, rainy day.DC/DC power module Realize the electric isolution of accumulator and electronic circuitry part, with carrying out voltage transformation, convert battery voltage to luminaire institute The direct current supply voltage needed.
In this embodiment, housing uses the insulant of following component to make: Corvic 56-60 part, thermoplasticity Elastomer 20-30 part, plasticizer 5-8 part, composite antioxidant 0.1-0.5 part, coupling agent 2-3 part, polyether-ether-ketone 10-15 part, Glass fibre 5-8 part, carbon fiber 1-2 part, bentonite 1-2 part,
Composite antioxidant is: β-(3,5-di-t-butyl-4-hydroxy phenyl) propanoic acid positive octadecanol ester: or 4, 4 ,-thiobis (6-tert-butyl-m-cresol): the weight ratio of tricresyl phosphite (2,4--di-tert-butyl-phenyl) is 2:1:3.
This insulant is reusable, easily reclaim, high heat-resisting and good insulating, heat distortion temperature 100-105 DEG C, volume Resistivity 5.8 × 1012Ω cm, impact strength (KJ/ m2) 100-110.
Insulant preparation method: a), will according to weight proportion weigh in 70-80 DEG C of drying baker of raw material be dried 3-5 little Time;B), each component is put in high-speed mixer and mix 3-5 minute;C), by said mixture banburying in banbury 25-30 minute;D), by said mixture pulverize uniformly in Material disintegrator, through double-screw extruding pelletizing.
Obviously, those skilled in the art can carry out various change and the modification essence without deviating from the present invention to the present invention God and scope.So, if these amendments of the present invention and modification belong to the scope of the claims in the present invention and equivalent technologies thereof Within, then the present invention is also intended to comprise these change and modification.

Claims (4)

1. an Electricity market risk income analysis method, it is characterised in that: comprise the steps:
Whether detection electric power primary equipment breaks down, if breaking down, then sends fault message, and background monitoring center receives After fault message, equipment overhauled and safeguards, and recording device name, fault time and the maintenance cost broken down; If not breaking down, then return and again detect;
Whether detection second power equipment breaks down, if breaking down, then sends fault message, and background monitoring center receives After fault message, equipment overhauled and safeguards, and recording device name, fault time and the maintenance cost broken down; If not breaking down, then return and again detect;
According to the electric power primary equipment detected and the fault message of second power equipment, analyze the O&M cost of power equipment;
Described electric power primary equipment includes defeated modified line road high-voltage switch gear;Whether described detection defeated modified line road high-voltage switch gear there is event Barrier, including: obtaining the parameter of defeated modified line road high-voltage switch gear, record high-voltage switch gear closes a floodgate, switching winding electric current, is closed by analysis Stroke curve in lock, the waveform of switching winding electric current and switch motion, it is judged that the switch of high-voltage switch gear is electrically and mechanical property Whether break down.
A kind of Electricity market risk income analysis method the most according to claim 1, it is characterised in that: described defeated modified line road The defeated modified line road that high-voltage switch gear connects uses carbon-fibre wire;Described carbon-fibre wire includes electric conduction of carbon fiber core body, is wrapped in Ring-shaped conductive layer that core body is peripheral and be wrapped in the insulating barrier that ring-shaped conductive layer is peripheral;Described ring-shaped conductive layer is by alloy lead wire Surrounding core body periphery to constitute, described alloy lead wire is made up of the composition of following percetage by weight: Zr:0.01-0.03%;Cu: 0.1-0.15%;Fe:0.95-0.98%;Ti:0.003-0.005%, Zn:0.03-0.05%, Mn:0.04-0.05%;Reinforcing agent: 0.1-0.2%;Mg:0.02-0.1%;Ti:0.01%-0.05%;RE:0.05-0.08%;B:0.1%-0.2%, surplus is Al and can not The impurity avoided;
Described reinforcing agent is made up of following percentage by weight raw material: boron 1-2%, aluminium oxide 20-25%, lithium oxide 5-6%, oxidation Sodium 3-5% and magnesium oxide 4-8%, copper powder 1-2%, glass putty 0.5-1.5% and zinc oxide 0.3-1%, surplus is silicon dioxide;Institute State the granularity of raw material all less than 10 microns.
A kind of Electricity market risk income analysis method the most according to claim 1, it is characterised in that: described detection electric power Whether secondary device breaks down, if breaking down, then sends fault message, after background monitoring center receives fault message, Equipment overhauled and safeguards, and recording device name, fault time and the maintenance cost broken down;If event does not occurs Barrier, then return and again detect, including:
By second power equipment by the numbering name preset, numbering is generated bar code information, and the Power Secondary after name is set Standby and bar code information is stored in data base;
Gather the parameter information of second power equipment, the parameter letter parameter information collected and the normal device preset run Breath contrasts, if in normal parameter range of information, then judges that this second power equipment does not has fault, returns and continue to gather; If beyond normal parameter range of information, then judging that this second power equipment breaks down, the bar code letter of scanning second power equipment Breath obtains device name, device name, fault time and the maintenance cost that record breaks down.
4. according to a kind of Electricity market risk income analysis method described in claim 1 or 3, it is characterised in that: described electric power Secondary device includes that power-supply device, described power-supply device include housing, and described housing is provided with solar panel, described shell Internal it is provided with charging circuit, accumulator, DC/DC power module and microcontroller;Described solar panel, charging circuit, Accumulator, DC/DC power module and microcontroller are sequentially connected with.
CN201510869762.XA 2015-12-02 2015-12-02 Electricity market risk income analysis method Active CN105512810B (en)

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CN103903196B (en) * 2014-04-24 2016-05-11 中国南方电网有限责任公司 A kind of dispatching of power netwoks of considering ageing equipment factor moves real-time methods of risk assessment
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