CN104765944A - Comprehensive measuring technological method for urban vulnerability - Google Patents

Abstract

The invention discloses a comprehensive measuring technological method for urban vulnerability. The method comprises the main steps: 1, building a comprehensive measuring index system consisting of a target layer, a criterion layer and an index layer; 2, respectively calculating the weights of all indexes in the target layer and the criterion layer by using an analytic hierarchy process; 3, calculating all indexes in the criterion layer; 4, calculating all indexes in the target layer; 5, calculating the comprehensive measuring indexes; 6, dividing the urban vulnerability into a low fragile degree, a lower fragile degree, a middle fragile degree, a stronger fragile degree, and a strong fragile degree according to the magnitude of the comprehensive measuring indexes. The comprehensive measuring method provided by the invention, which covers urban resources, environment, economy, society, has uniformity and comprehensiveness; meanwhile, a standard data processing technical flow for urban vulnerability can be given to realize operability and practicality.

Description

The Synthetic Measurement technical method of a kind of city fragility

Technical field

The present invention relates to Synthetic Measurement technology and the flow process of city fragility, be applicable to the evaluation of urban sustainable development, construct and manage.

Background technology

City fragility refers to that the adaptibility to response of the inside and outside physical features such as resource, ecologic environment, economy, social development and artificial key element interference is resisted in city in evolution.When this jamproof adaptibility to response is lower than a certain threshold limit value, namely city enters fragile state.City fragility is a kind of chronic urban disease.Along with passage of time, chronic deposition effect is more and more exaggerated, form " accumulation " process effect and accumulative enlarge-effect, when this chronic deposition and amplification process are accumulated in the course of time and are exceeded certain threshold value, city will depart from sustainable development state, fragility progressively strengthens, once run into " catalysis " of external interference factor, this fragility state will accelerated to amplify instantaneously, formed and accelerate enlarge-effect even mutation effect, the chronic disease in city transfers to " high-risk period ", if do not reversed, city system will be caused to collapse.

In the current Rapid-Urbanization stage, the fragility in city highlights day by day, and energy resource shortage and ecological environment problem are more serious, and the social concerns such as employment, medical treatment, education are given prominence to, and have had a strong impact on speed and the quality of urbanization.Therefore, need the Synthetic Measurement research carrying out city fragility badly, the overall state of clear and definite city fragility and characteristic feature thus, relevant laws and regulations are formulated and optimized and policy provides scientific basis for country, and then for reducing and reply city fragility, promoting urbanization quality, realize the technical support that the sustainable development in city provides solid.

City fragility is a comparatively abstract concept, and carrying out Synthetic Measurement to it is technological difficulties.Meanwhile, rise to the epoch overall background of whole world common recognition in current city sustainable development under, city fragility is estimated and is just being become a research and practice focus.Estimate technology from existing city fragility, its technical characteristic is mainly manifested in following aspect.

First, prior art mainly pays close attention to economic society fragility and the sustainable development thereof in the specific type cities such as cities with resource-based economies, coastal cities, tourist city, lacks the unified technical method that can adapt to dissimilar city.Secondly, prior art is mainly estimated from the not ipsilateral of city fragility, as based on single visual angle such as Economic View, social visual angle, Ecology Angles, this makes prior art only can estimate city fragility in a certain respect, lacks comprehensive and comprehensive.Again, the measurement indicator system of city fragility, based on triangular web, presents the feature of variation and differentiation, does not have comparability, lack unified measurement indicator system between the index system of different research field.Finally, for achievement data, although there is different analytical approachs, as scenario analysis, Set Pair Analysis Method, neural network model, map overlay method etc., from entirety, still lack the data processing technique flow process that a set of standardized city fragility is estimated.

Summary of the invention

Technology of the present invention is dealt with problems: overcome the deficiencies in the prior art, the Synthetic Measurement method of a kind of city fragility is provided, the method constructs unified General Measuring Indicator system, adopt standardized data processing technique flow process, calculate a quantitative Synthetic Measurement index by data processing, finally carry out scientific evaluation according to the fragility in Synthetic Measurement exponent pair city.

Technical solution of the present invention: the Synthetic Measurement method of a kind of city fragility, is characterized in that mainly comprising the following steps:

Comprise n city in the regional extent of hypothesis evaluation altogether, namely will carry out Synthetic Measurement to the fragility in this n city.

1, General Measuring Indicator system is built

Compound " the people one ground " system that city is resource subsystem, ecologic environment subsystem, Economy subsystem and social subsystems are formed jointly.Namely the economy that city occurs in evolution, society, resource and environment problem are the fundamental presentations of city fragility, and therefore, city fragility is the organic unity of urban resource fragility, Environmental Vulnerability, economic vulnerability and social vulnerability.Based on this, the present invention constructs unified city fragility General Measuring Indicator system, refers to table 1.

Table 1 city fragility General Measuring Indicator system

According to table 1, General Measuring Indicator system comprises destination layer (B1 ~ B4), rule layer (C1 ~ C10) and indicator layer (D1 ~ D35) composition.Wherein, 35 indexs of D layer are the concrete measured value of n city in a certain year, comprise statistics, enquiry data or carry out according to statistics, enquiry data the data that calculate.The standard value of D layer index adopts following several approach to determine: (1) adopts the standard value in international or national research report; (2) with reference to the current value in domestic and international leading area; (3) according to existing result of calculation confirmed standard value; (4) with reference to existing standard literature reference.

C layer rule layer is that 10 of calculating on the basis of D layer specific targets estimate index, and such as, utilization of resources vulnerability index C1 calculates the index set D1 ~ D4 belonging to it, and C2 ~ C10 in like manner.B layer destination layer is 4 vulnerability indexes calculated on the basis of each index of C layer, and such as, resource fragility B1 calculates the index set C1 ~ C2 belonging to it, and B2 ~ B4 in like manner.

2, index weights calculates

Adopt analytical hierarchy process (AHP method) to calculate the index weights of destination layer and rule layer, step is as follows:

(1) calculate the weight of 4 index B1 ~ B4 in destination layer, require that 4 index weights sums are 1.

(2) calculate the weight of C1, C2 index in the rule layer belonging to B1, require that 2 index weights sums are 1.

In like manner, the weight of C3 ~ C4, C5 ~ C7, C8 ~ C10 is calculated successively.

3, rule layer index calculates

According to index D1 ~ D35, calculate i-th (i=1,2 ..., n) each index C1 ~ C10 of individual city in rule layer.

(1) according to D1 ~ D4, vulnerability index (C1, RUVI is utilized by following formula computational resource _i).

${\mathrm{RUVI}}_i=\frac{1}{4}\underset{j=1}{\overset{4}{\mathrm{\Σ}}}\frac{x_j}{x_o}=\frac{1}{4}[\left(\frac{R_i}{s_1}\right)+\left(\frac{W_i}{s_2}\right)+\left(\frac{E_i}{s_3}\right)+\left(\frac{F_i}{s_4}\right)]---\left(1\right)$

In formula, x _jfor the desired value of the jth in D1 ~ D4, x _ofor the corresponding standard value of a jth index; R _i, W _i, E _i, F _ibe respectively ten thousand yuan of GDP comprehensive energy consumptions (D1) in i-th city, ten thousand yuan of GDP water consumption (D2), ten thousand yuan of GDP power consumptions (D3) and ten thousand yuan of GDP construction lands take (D4); s ₁, s ₂, s ₃, s ₄be respectively the corresponding standard value of D1 ~ D4.

(2) according to D5, D6, vulnerability index (C2, RTVI is ensured by following formula computational resource _i).

${\mathrm{RTVI}}_i=1-\frac{1}{2}\{\left(\frac{{\mathrm{PAW}}_i}{P_1}\right)+\frac{1}{2}[\left(\frac{{\mathrm{PAA}}_i}{{\mathrm{HUAA}}_i}\right)+\left(\frac{{\mathrm{PCA}}_i}{{\mathrm{HPCA}}_i}\right)]/P_2\}---\left(2\right)$

In formula, PAW _ibe the water resources guarantee capacity (D5) in i-th city, its value is city water resource of per capita; be the construction land supportability (D6) in i-th city, wherein, PAA _ifor city per capita area of cultivated farmland, HUAA _ifor the minimum cultivated area of demand per capita then, is identified as 560m with reference to existing ²; PCA _ifor construction land area per capita, HPCA _ifor health construction land area per capita, be identified as 102m with reference to existing ²; P ₁, P ₂for the corresponding standard value of D5, D6.

(3) according to D7 ~ D9, ecology fragility sex index (C3, ECVI is calculated by following formula _i).

${\mathrm{ECVI}}_i=1-\frac{1}{3}\underset{j=1}{\overset{3}{\mathrm{\Σ}}}\frac{c_J}{x_o}=1-\frac{1}{3}[\left(\frac{{\mathrm{GC}}_i}{h_1}\right)+\left(\frac{{\mathrm{FC}}_i}{h_2}\right)+\left(\frac{{\mathrm{PC}}_i}{h_3}\right)]---\left(3\right)$

In formula, x _jfor the desired value of the jth in D7 ~ D9, x _ofor the corresponding standard value of a jth index; GC _i, FC _i, PG _ibe respectively the built-up areas afforestation coverage rate (D7) in i-th city, afforestation rate (D8) and index of aridity (D9); h ₁, h ₂, h ₃be respectively the corresponding standard value of D7 ~ D9.

(4) according to D10 ~ D14, by following formula computing environment vulnerability index (C4, ENVI _i).

${\mathrm{ENVI}}_i=\frac{1}{3}\left\{\frac{1}{2}\right[\left(\frac{{\mathrm{WC}}_i}{q_1}\right)+(1-\frac{{\mathrm{AC}}_i}{q_2})]+(1-\frac{{\mathrm{UST}}_i}{q_3})+\frac{1}{2}[(1-\frac{{\mathrm{IWU}}_i}{q_4})+(1-\frac{{\mathrm{LGT}}_i}{q_5})]\}---\left(4\right)$

In formula, represent the vulnerability index of air, water, Land Environment respectively.Wherein, WC _iand AC _ibe respectively ten thousand yuan of GDP carbon emission amounts (D10) and air quality excellent sky percentage (D11) in i-th city, UST _ibe the centralized treatment of urban sewage rate (D12) in i-th city, IWU _iand LGU _ibe respectively industrial solid castoff comprehensive utilization ratio (D13) and the level of harmless treatment rate of life waste (D14) in i-th city; q ₁, q ₂, q ₃, q ₄, q ₅be respectively the corresponding standard value of D10 ~ D14.

(5) according to D15 ~ D17, by following formula computing economy fragile structure sex index (C5, ESVI _i).

${\mathrm{ESVI}}_i=\frac{1}{2}\left\{\frac{1}{2}\right[\left(\frac{H_i}{f_1}\right)+(1-\frac{S_i}{f_2})]+(1-\frac{D_i}{f_3})\}---\left(5\right)$

In formula, represent industrial structure vulnerability index and economy extroversion degree vulnerability index respectively.Wherein, H _ifor Huffman coefficient (D15), S _ifor value-added of the tertiary industry accounts for the proportion (D16) of GDP, D _ifor the export-oriented degree of economy (D17, the total import and export volume that its value equals city accounts for the proportion of city total output value); f ₁, f ₂, f ₃be respectively the corresponding standard value of D15 ~ D17.

(6) according to D18, computing economy efficiency vulnerability index (C6, EEVI _i).

Utilize DATA ENVELOPMENT ANALYSIS METHOD, using labour's number in city and fixed capital as independent variable, with the city total output value of constant price for dependent variable, if x _jlrepresent the input amount of the l kind resource in a jth city, y _mrepresent the m kind quantum of output in a jth city, utilize the CRS model in DATA ENVELOPMENT ANALYSIS METHOD, calculate the inputoutput rate (D18, EEI) in each city, formula is as follows:

$\left\{\begin{array}{cc}\mathrm{EEI}=\mathrm{\θ}& \\ \min [\mathrm{\θ}-\mathrm{\ϵ}(e_1^T{s}^{-}+e_2^T{s}^{+})]& \\ s.t.\underset{j=1}{\overset{k}{\mathrm{\Σ}}}{x}_{\mathrm{jl}}{\mathrm{\λ}}_j+s^{-}={\mathrm{\θx}}_1^n& l=\mathrm{1,2},...L\\ \underset{j=1}{\overset{k}{\mathrm{\Σ}}}{y}_{\mathrm{jm}}{\mathrm{\λ}}_j-s^{+}=y_m^n& m=\mathrm{1,2},...M\\ \mathrm{\λ}\≥0& n=\mathrm{1,2},...K\end{array}\right.---(6-1)$

In formula: θ (0 < θ < 1) is complex art scale efficiency index, referred to as overall efficiency index, be also inputoutput rate EEI; λ _j(λ _j>=0) be weight variable, s ^-(s ^->=0) be slack variable, s ⁺(s ⁺>=0) be surplus variable, ε is non-Archimedes's dimensionless, e ^t ₁(1,1 ..., 1) ∈ E _mand e ^t ₂(1,1 ..., 1) ∈ E _kbe distributed as m peacekeeping k and tie up vector of unit length space.If θ value more close to 1, then represents that the business efficiency in the n-th city is higher, otherwise, lower.Then show that when θ=1 these city operations are on Optimum Economic leading surface, the output in this city just reaches overall efficiency optimum for input.

According to inputoutput rate, the business efficiency vulnerability index in city is:

EEVI _i=1-EEI _i(6-2)

In formula, EEI _iit is the inputoutput rate in i-th city.

(7) according to D19 ~ D20, vulnerability index (C7, EIVI is innovated by following formula computing economy _i).

${\mathrm{EIVI}}_i=1-\frac{1}{2}\underset{j=1}{\overset{2}{\mathrm{\&Sigma;}}}\frac{x_j}{x_o}=1-\frac{1}{2}[\left(\frac{F_i}{b_1}\right)+\left(\frac{G_i}{b_2}\right)]---\left(7\right)$

In formula, x _jfor the desired value of the jth in D19 ~ D20, x _ofor the corresponding standard value of a jth index; F _ibe that the R & D in i-th city drops into and accounts for the proportion (D19) of GDP, G _ibe that the expenditures on science and technology in i-th city account for budgetary expenditure of local government proportion (D20); b ₁, b ₂be respectively the corresponding standard value of D19 ~ D20.

(8) according to D21 ~ D25, human development vulnerability index (C8, HDVI is calculated by following formula _i).

In formula, x _ifor the desired value of the jth in D21 ~ D25, x _ofor the corresponding standard value of a jth index; PG _ibe the natural growth rate of population (D21) in i-th city, WS _ibe ten thousand people's general high school students number (D22) in i-th city, WD _ibe that ten thousand people have doctor's number (D23), AH _ifor per capita living space (D24), AG _ifor GDP per capita (D25); φ ₁, φ ₂, φ ₃, φ ₄, φ ₅be respectively the corresponding standard value of D21 ~ D25.

(9) according to D26 ~ D31, by following formula computing basic facility vulnerability index (C9, IFVI _i).

${\mathrm{IFVI}}_i=1-\frac{1}{3}\left\{\frac{1}{2}\right[\left(\frac{{\mathrm{BM}}_i}{u_1}\right)+\left(\frac{{\mathrm{BI}}_i}{u_2}\right)]+\frac{1}{2}[\left(\frac{{\mathrm{GP}}_i}{u_3}\right)+\left(\frac{{\mathrm{PP}}_i}{u_4}\right)]+\frac{1}{2}[\left(\frac{{\mathrm{AR}}_i}{u_5}\right)+\left(\frac{{\mathrm{WB}}_i}{u_6}\right)\left]\right\}---\left(9\right)$

In formula, BM _iand BI _ihundred people being respectively i-th city have mobile phone number (D26) and hundred people have Internet number of users (D27), GP _iand PP _ibe respectively built-up areas water supply line density (D28) and built-up areas drainage pipeline density (D29) in i-th city, AR _iand WB _ithe area of urban road per capita (D30) and ten thousand people that are respectively i-th city have common electrical automobile number (D31); u ₁, u ₂, u ₃, u ₄, u ₅, u ₆be respectively the corresponding standard value of D26 ~ D31.

(10) according to D32 ~ D35, social environment vulnerability index (C10, SEVI is calculated by following formula _i).

$\mathrm{SEVI}=\frac{1}{3}\{\left(\frac{{\mathrm{CX}}_i}{g_1}\right)+\left(\frac{{\mathrm{PK}}_i}{g_2}\right)+\frac{1}{2}[\left(\frac{{\mathrm{DS}}_i}{g_3}\right)+(1-\frac{{\mathrm{SS}}_i}{g_4})\left]\right\}---(10-1)$

In formula, CX _i, PK _ibe respectively Urban-rural Difference index (D32) and the population below the poverty line ratio (D33) in i-th city, DS _i, SS _ibe respectively registered urban unemployment rate (D34) and the social insurance coverage rate (D35) in i-th city; g ₁, g ₂, g ₃, g ₄be respectively the corresponding standard value of D32 ~ D35.Wherein, CX _icomputing formula as follows:

${\mathrm{CX}}_i=1-\frac{y_{\mathrm{ir}}}{y_{\mathrm{iu}}}---(10-2)$

In formula, y _irbe the annual per-capita net income for rural residents in i-th city, y _iuit is the urban residents' disposable income per capita in i-th city.

4, destination layer index calculates

According to the index C1 ~ C10 of rule layer, calculate i-th (i=1,2 ..., n) each index B1 ~ B4 of individual city in destination layer.

(1) according to C1 ~ C2, by following formula computational resource vulnerability index (B1, URVI _i).

URVI _i=α ₁×RUVI _i+α ₂×RTVI _i(11)

In formula, RUVI _i, RTVI _ibe respectively utilization of resources vulnerability index (C1) and the resource guarantee vulnerability index (C2) in i-th city, a ₁, a ₂be respectively the weight of RUVI, RTVI.

(2) according to C3 ~ C4, by following formula computing environment vulnerability index (B2, UEnVI _i).

UEnVI _i=β ₁×ECVI _i+β ₂×ENVI _i(12)

In formula, ECVI _i, ENVI _ibe respectively ecology fragility sex index (C3) and the vulnerable environment sex index (C4) in i-th city, β ₁, β ₂be respectively the weight of ECVI, ENVI.

(3) according to C5 ~ C7, by following formula computing economy vulnerability index (B3, UEcVI _i).

UEcVI _i=γ ₁×ESVI _i+γ ₂×EEVI _i+γ ₃×EIVI _i(13)

In formula, ESVI _i, EEVI _iand EIVI _ibe respectively the economic structure vulnerability index (C5) in i-th city, business efficiency vulnerability index (C6) and economic innovation vulnerability index (C7), γ ₁, γ ₂, γ ₃be respectively the weight of ESVI, EEVI, EIVI.

(4) according to C8 ~ C10, social vulnerability index (B4, USVI is calculated by following formula _i).

USVI _i＝δ ₁×HDVI _i+δ ₂×IFVI _i+δ ₃×SEVI _i(14)

In formula, HDVI _i, IFVI _iand SEVI _ibe respectively the human development vulnerability index (C8) in i-th city, infrastructure vulnerability index (C9) and social environment vulnerability index (C10), δ ₁, δ ₂, δ ₃be respectively the weight of HDVI, IFVI, SEVI.

5, Synthetic Measurement index calculates

According to the index B1 ~ B4 of destination layer, by following formula calculate i-th (i=1,2 ..., n) the Synthetic Measurement index UVI in individual city _i.

UVI _i=α×URVI _i+β×UEnVI _i+γ×UEcVI _i+δ×USVI _i(15)

In formula, URVI _i, UEnVI _i, UEcVI _iand USVI _ibe respectively the resource vulnerability index (B1) in i-th city, vulnerable environment sex index (B2), economic vulnerability sex index (B3) and social vulnerability index (B4), a, β, γ, δ are respectively URVI _i, UEnVI _i, UEcVI _iand USVI _iweight.

6, city frailness drought comprehensive evaluation

According to the size of UVI, carry out comprehensive evaluation to the fragility in n city, standard is:

As UVI<0.47, it is low fragile degree city (one-level);

When UVI=0.48 ~ 0.52, it is lower fragile degree city (secondary);

When UVI=0.53 ~ 0.57, be middle fragile degree city (three grades);

When UVI=0.58 ~ 0.62, it is stronger fragile degree city (level Four);

As UVI>0.63, it is strong fragile degree city (Pyatyi).

Further, necessary analysis can be carried out again according to comprehensive evaluation result.

The present invention's advantage is compared with prior art:

(1) General Measuring Indicator system covers urban resource, environment, economy, society 4 aspects, has unitarity and comprehensive, and then makes to have comparability between dissimilar city.

(2) give the standard value of 35 specific targets data, and adopt standard value method to calculate index, indication information is fully exploited, ensure that the precision that data calculate.

(3) by calculating Synthetic Measurement index, give a set of standardized city data processing technique flow process that fragility is estimated, this makes the present invention have operability and practicality.

Accompanying drawing explanation

Fig. 1 is the basic framework of city fragility Synthetic Measurement;

Fig. 2 is the process flow diagram of the inventive method.

Embodiment

Carry out Synthetic Measurement for China's 288 above cities of region (i.e. n=288) the fragility of 2011, the invention process is described in further detail.

According to Fig. 1, city fragility is estimated and must be carried out Synthetic Measurement based on urban resource, environment, economy, society 4 aspects.According to Fig. 2, in conjunction with foregoing summary, the concrete steps of the present embodiment are as follows:

1, according to the General Measuring Indicator system of table 1, according to 35 specific targets requirements of indicator layer, the corresponding data in 288 cities is collected.

2, index weights calculates

Adopt analytical hierarchy process (AHP method) to calculate the index weights of destination layer and rule layer, step is as follows:

Calculate the weight of 4 index B1 ~ B4 in destination layer, require that 4 index weights sums are 1.

Calculate the weight of C1, C2 index in the rule layer belonging to B1, require that 2 index weights sums are 1, in like manner, calculate the weight of C3 ~ C4, C5 ~ C7, C8 ~ C10 successively.

AHP method is considered preferably and is integrated with the various qualitative and quantitative information of index, is a kind of index weights computing method of maturation, is widely applied in every field, and therefore, the present invention adopts AHP method to calculate the index weights of destination layer and rule layer.

3, according to index D1 ~ D35, each index C1 ~ C10 in calculation criterion layer

To calculate utilization of resources vulnerability index (C1, the RUVI in i-th city _i) be example, then have according to formula (1):

${\mathrm{RUVI}}_i=\frac{1}{4}\underset{j=1}{\overset{4}{\mathrm{\&Sigma;}}}\frac{x_j}{x_o}=\frac{1}{4}[\left(\frac{R_i}{0.4}\right)+\left(\frac{W_i}{30}\right)+\left(\frac{E_i}{500}\right)+\left(\frac{F_i}{7}\right)]$

In formula, 0.4,30,500,7 are respectively the standard value that ten thousand yuan of GDP comprehensive energy consumptions (D1), ten thousand yuan of GDP water consumption (D2), ten thousand yuan of GDP power consumptions (D3) and ten thousand yuan of GDP construction lands take (D4).

In like manner, according to formula (2) ~ (10), gauge index C2 successively ~ C10.

4, according to C1 ~ C10, each index B1 ~ B4 in destination layer is calculated

To calculate resource vulnerability index (B1, the URVI in i-th city _i) be example, then have according to formula (11):

URVI _i=0.45×RUVI _i+0.55×RTVI _i

In formula, RUVI _i, RTVI _ibe respectively utilization of resources vulnerability index (C1) and the resource guarantee vulnerability index (C2) in i-th city, 0.45,0.55 weight being respectively RUVI, RTVI.

In like manner, according to formula (12) ~ (14), gauge index B2 successively ~ B4.

5, according to B1 ~ B4, calculate Synthetic Measurement index, then have according to formula (15):

UVI _i=0.2×URVi _i+0.2×UEnVI _i+0.3×UEcVI _i+0.3×USVI _i

In formula, URVI _i, UEnVI _i, UEcVI _iand USVI _ibe respectively the resource vulnerability index (B1) in i-th city, vulnerable environment sex index (B2), economic vulnerability sex index (B3) and social vulnerability index (B4), 0.2,0.2,0.3,0.3 weight being respectively URVI, UEnVI, UEcVI and USVI.

6, comprehensive evaluation

According to the size of the Synthetic Measurement index UVI value of city fragility, combining assessment standard, can find that the fragility in China 288 above cities of region has following characteristics:

(1) 2011 year, the average vulnerability index in China 288 above cities of region was 0.5481, is in middle fragile degree state.In all evaluation cities, the vulnerability index of Shenzhen is minimum, is 0.1221, shows that the ability of its sustainable development is the strongest; Secondly be Beijing, vulnerability index is 0.3622.The vulnerability index of Baiyin City is the highest, is 0.6762.

(2) on the whole, the fragility situation of Chinese city presents the situation that centre is many, two is few.The city numbers being in lower fragile degree, middle fragile degree and stronger fragile degree is in the majority, and account for 19.79% of city sum, 42.36% and 26.04% respectively, three's summation accounts for city numbers 88.19%.The city being in low fragile degree and the city numbers being in strong fragile degree are respectively 20 and 14, respectively account for 7% and 5% of city sum.

Claims (6)

1. a Synthetic Measurement technical method for city fragility, is characterized in that mainly comprising the following steps:

(1) build General Measuring Indicator system, comprise destination layer (B layer), rule layer (C layer) and indicator layer (D layer);

(2) weight of each index in destination layer and rule layer is calculated respectively with analytical hierarchy process;

(3) each index in calculation criterion layer;

(4) each index in destination layer is calculated;

(5) Synthetic Measurement index is calculated;

(6) according to the size of Synthetic Measurement index, comprehensive evaluation is carried out to city fragility.

2. the Synthetic Measurement method of city according to claim 1 fragility, it is characterized in that: in step (1), General Measuring Indicator system carrys out the specific targets selective goal layer from urban resource, environment, economy, society 4 aspects, accordingly, city fragility is estimated and is included resource fragility (B1), Environmental Vulnerability (B2), the estimating of economic vulnerability (B3) and social vulnerability (B4).

3. the Synthetic Measurement method of city according to claim 1 fragility, is characterized in that: in step (3), in rule layer, the computing method of each index are as follows:

(1) utilization of resources vulnerability index (C1, RUVI _i)

${\mathrm{RUVI}}_i=\frac{1}{4}\underset{j=1}{\overset{4}{\mathrm{\&Sigma;}}}\frac{x_j}{x_o}=\frac{1}{4}[\left(\frac{R_i}{s_1}\right)+\left(\frac{W_i}{s_2}\right)+\left(\frac{E_i}{s_3}\right)+\left(\frac{F_i}{s_4}\right)]---\left(1\right)$

In formula, R _i, W _i, E _i, F _ibe respectively ten thousand yuan of GDP comprehensive energy consumptions (D1) in i-th city, ten thousand yuan of GDP water consumption (D2), ten thousand yuan of GDP power consumptions (D3) and ten thousand yuan of GDP construction lands take (D4); s ₁, s ₂, s ₃, s ₄be respectively the corresponding standard value of D1 ~ D4; x _jfor the desired value of the jth in D1 ~ D4, x _ofor the corresponding standard value of a jth index;

(2) resource guarantee vulnerability index (C2, RTVI _i)

${\mathrm{RTVI}}_i=1-\frac{1}{2}\{\left(\frac{{\mathrm{PAW}}_i}{P_1}\right)+\frac{1}{2}[\left(\frac{{\mathrm{PAA}}_i}{{\mathrm{HUAA}}_i}\right)+\left(\frac{{\mathrm{PCA}}_i}{{\mathrm{HPCA}}_i}\right)]/P_2\}---\left(2\right)$

In formula, PAW _ibe the water resources guarantee capacity (D5) in i-th city, its value is city water resource of per capita; be the construction land supportability (D6) in i-th city, wherein, PAA _ifor city per capita area of cultivated farmland, HUAA _ifor the minimum cultivated area of demand per capita then, is identified as 560m with reference to existing ²; PCA _ifor construction land area per capita, HPCA _ifor health construction land area per capita, be identified as 102m with reference to existing ²; P ₁, P ₂for the corresponding standard value of D5, D6;

(3) ecology fragility sex index (C3, ECVI _i)

${\mathrm{ECVI}}_i=1-\frac{1}{3}\underset{j=1}{\overset{3}{\mathrm{\&Sigma;}}}\frac{c_J}{x_o}=1-\frac{1}{3}[\left(\frac{{\mathrm{GC}}_i}{h_1}\right)+\left(\frac{{\mathrm{FC}}_i}{h_2}\right)+\left(\frac{{\mathrm{PC}}_i}{h_3}\right)]---\left(3\right)$

In formula, GC _i, FC _i, PG _ibe respectively the built-up areas afforestation coverage rate (D7) in i-th city, afforestation rate (D8) and index of aridity (D9); h ₁, h ₂, h ₃be respectively the corresponding standard value of D7 ~ D9; x _jfor the desired value of the jth in D7 ~ D9, x _ofor the corresponding standard value of a jth index;

(4) vulnerable environment sex index (C4, ENVI _i)

${\mathrm{ENVI}}_i=\frac{1}{3}\left\{\frac{1}{2}\right[\left(\frac{{\mathrm{WC}}_i}{q_1}\right)+(1-\frac{{\mathrm{AC}}_i}{q_2})]+(1-\frac{{\mathrm{UST}}_i}{q_3})+\frac{1}{2}[(1-\frac{{\mathrm{IWU}}_i}{q_4})+(1-\frac{{\mathrm{LGT}}_i}{q_5})]\}---\left(4\right)$

In formula, $\frac{1}{2}[\left(\frac{{\mathrm{WC}}_i}{q_1}\right)+(1-\frac{{\mathrm{AC}}_i}{q_2})],(1-\frac{{\mathrm{UST}}_i}{q_3}),\frac{1}{2}[(1-\frac{{\mathrm{IWU}}_i}{q_4})+(1-\frac{{\mathrm{LGT}}_i}{q_5})]$ Represent the vulnerability index of air, water, Land Environment respectively, wherein, WC _iand AC _ibe respectively ten thousand yuan of GDP carbon emission amounts (D10) and air quality excellent sky percentage (D11) in i-th city, UST _ibe the centralized treatment of urban sewage rate (D12) in i-th city, IWU _iand LGU _ibe respectively industrial solid castoff comprehensive utilization ratio (D13) and the level of harmless treatment rate of life waste (D14) in i-th city; q ₁, q ₂, q ₃, q ₄, q ₅be respectively the corresponding standard value of D10 ~ D14;

(5) economic structure vulnerability index (C5, ESVI _i)

${\mathrm{ESVI}}_i=\frac{1}{2}\left\{\frac{1}{2}\right[\left(\frac{H_i}{f_1}\right)+(1-\frac{S_i}{f_2})]+(1-\frac{D_i}{f_3})\}---\left(5\right)$

In formula, represent industrial structure vulnerability index and economy extroversion degree vulnerability index respectively, wherein, H _ifor Huffman coefficient (D15), S _ifor value-added of the tertiary industry accounts for the proportion (D16) of GDP, D _ifor the export-oriented degree of economy (D17, the total import and export volume that its value equals city accounts for the proportion of city total output value); f ₁, f ₂, f ₃be respectively the corresponding standard value of D15 ~ D17;

(6) business efficiency vulnerability index (C6, EEVI _i)

Utilize DATA ENVELOPMENT ANALYSIS METHOD, using labour's number in city and fixed capital as independent variable, with the city total output value of constant price for dependent variable, if x _jlrepresent the input amount of the l kind resource in a jth city, y _mrepresent the m kind quantum of output in a jth city, then the computing formula of the inputoutput rate (D18, EEI) in city is as follows:

$\left\{\begin{array}{cc}\mathrm{EEI}=\mathrm{\&theta;}& \\ \min [\mathrm{\&theta;}-\mathrm{\&epsiv;}(e_1^T{s}^{-}+e_2^T{s}^{+})]& \\ s.t.\underset{j=1}{\overset{k}{\mathrm{\&Sigma;}}}{x}_{\mathrm{jl}}{\mathrm{\&lambda;}}_j+s^{-}={\mathrm{\&theta;x}}_1^n& l=\mathrm{1,2},...L\\ \underset{j=1}{\overset{k}{\mathrm{\&Sigma;}}}{y}_{\mathrm{jm}}{\mathrm{\&lambda;}}_j-s^{+}=y_m^n& m=\mathrm{1,2},...M\\ \mathrm{\&lambda;}\&GreaterEqual;0& n=\mathrm{1,2},...K\end{array}\right.---(6-1)$

In formula: θ (0< θ <1) is overall efficiency index, be also inputoutput rate EEI; λ _j(λ _j>=0) be weight variable, s ^-(s ^->=0) be slack variable, s ⁺(s ⁺>=0) be surplus variable, ε is non-Archimedes's dimensionless, e ^t ₁(1,1 ..., 1) ∈ E _mand e ^t ₂(1,1 ..., 1) ∈ E _kbe distributed as m peacekeeping k and tie up vector of unit length space; According to inputoutput rate, the business efficiency vulnerability index in city is:

EEVI _i=1-EEI _i(6-2)

(7) economic innovation vulnerability index (C7, EIVI _i)

${\mathrm{EIVI}}_i=1-\frac{1}{2}\underset{j=1}{\overset{2}{\mathrm{\&Sigma;}}}\frac{x_j}{x_o}=1-\frac{1}{2}[\left(\frac{F_i}{b_1}\right)+\left(\frac{G_i}{b_2}\right)]---\left(7\right)$

In formula, F _ibe that the R & D in i-th city drops into and accounts for the proportion (D19) of GDP, G _ibe that the expenditures on science and technology in i-th city account for budgetary expenditure of local government proportion (D20); b ₁, b ₂be respectively the corresponding standard value of D19 ~ D20; x _jfor the desired value of the jth in D19 ~ D20, x _ofor the corresponding standard value of a jth index;

(8) human development vulnerability index (C8, HDVI _i)

In formula, PG _ibe the natural growth rate of population (D21) in i-th city, WS _ibe ten thousand people's general high school students number (D22) in i-th city, WD _ibe that ten thousand people have doctor's number (D23), AH _ifor per capita living space (D24), AG _ifor GDP per capita (D25); φ ₁, φ ₂, φ ₃, φ ₄, φ ₅be respectively the corresponding standard value of D21 ~ D25; x _jfor the desired value of the jth in D21 ~ D25, x _ofor the corresponding standard value of a jth index;

(9) infrastructure vulnerability index (C9, IFVI _i)

${\mathrm{IFVI}}_i=1-\frac{1}{3}\left\{\frac{1}{2}\right[\left(\frac{{\mathrm{BM}}_i}{u_1}\right)+\left(\frac{{\mathrm{BI}}_i}{u_2}\right)]+\frac{1}{2}[\left(\frac{{\mathrm{GP}}_i}{u_3}\right)+\left(\frac{{\mathrm{PP}}_i}{u_4}\right)]+\frac{1}{2}[\left(\frac{{\mathrm{AR}}_i}{u_5}\right)+\left(\frac{{\mathrm{WB}}_i}{u_6}\right)\left]\right\}---\left(9\right)$

In formula, BM _iand BI _ihundred people being respectively i-th city have mobile phone number (D26) and hundred people have Internet number of users (D27), GP _iand PP _ibe respectively built-up areas water supply line density (D28) and built-up areas drainage pipeline density (D29) in i-th city, AR _iand WB _ithe area of urban road per capita (D30) and ten thousand people that are respectively i-th city have common electrical automobile number (D31); u ₁, u ₂, u ₃, u ₄, u ₅, u ₆be respectively the corresponding standard value of D26 ~ D31;

(10) social environment vulnerability index (C10, SEVI _i)

$\mathrm{SEVI}=\frac{1}{3}\{\left(\frac{{\mathrm{CX}}_i}{g_1}\right)+\left(\frac{{\mathrm{PK}}_i}{g_2}\right)+\frac{1}{2}[\left(\frac{{\mathrm{DS}}_i}{g_3}\right)+(1-\frac{{\mathrm{SS}}_i}{g_4})\left]\right\}---(10-1)$

In formula, CX _i, PK _ibe respectively Urban-rural Difference index (D32) and the population below the poverty line ratio (D33) in i-th city, DS _i, SS _ibe respectively registered urban unemployment rate (D34) and the social insurance coverage rate (D35) in i-th city; g ₁, g ₂, g ₃, g ₄be respectively the corresponding standard value of D32 ~ D35; Wherein, CX _icomputing formula as follows:

${\mathrm{CX}}_i=1-\frac{y_{\mathrm{ir}}}{y_{\mathrm{iu}}}---(10-2)$

In formula, y _irbe the annual per-capita net income for rural residents in i-th city, y _iuit is the urban residents' disposable income per capita in i-th city.

4. the Synthetic Measurement method of city according to claim 1 fragility, is characterized in that: in step (4), in destination layer, the computing formula of each index is as follows:

${\mathrm{UVI}}_{\mathrm{Bi}}=\underset{j=1}{\overset{m}{\mathrm{\&Sigma;}}}{W}_{\mathrm{Cj}}{\mathrm{UVI}}_{\mathrm{Cj}}---\left(11\right)$

In formula, UVI _bifor i-th (i=1,2,3,4) individual index in destination layer; UVI _cjfor jth in the rule layer in destination layer belonging to i-th index (j=1,2 ..., m) individual index, W _cjfor UVI _cjweight.

5. the Synthetic Measurement method of city according to claim 1 fragility, is characterized in that: in step step (5), the computing formula of Synthetic Measurement index is as follows:

$\mathrm{UVI}=\underset{j=1}{\overset{4}{\mathrm{\&Sigma;}}}{W}_{\mathrm{Bi}}{\mathrm{UVI}}_{\mathrm{Bi}}---\left(12\right)$

In formula, UVI is Synthetic Measurement index; UVI _bifor i-th (i=1,2,3,4) individual index in destination layer; W _bifor UVI _biweight.

6. the Synthetic Measurement method of city according to claim 1 fragility, is characterized in that: in step (6), and the standard of carrying out comprehensive evaluation according to the size of Synthetic Measurement index is:

As UVI<0.47, it is low fragile degree city (one-level);

When UVI=0.48 ~ 0.52, it is lower fragile degree city (secondary);

When UVI=0.53 ~ 0.57, be middle fragile degree city (three grades);

When UVI=0.58 ~ 0.62, it is stronger fragile degree city (level Four);

As UVI>0.63, it is strong fragile degree city (Pyatyi).