CN104268654B - Substation Bus Arrangement methods of risk assessment based on LCC - Google Patents
Substation Bus Arrangement methods of risk assessment based on LCC Download PDFInfo
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- 238000000034 method Methods 0.000 title claims abstract description 32
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- 238000012423 maintenance Methods 0.000 claims description 32
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- 238000006243 chemical reaction Methods 0.000 description 2
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- G06F30/22—Design optimisation, verification or simulation using Petri net models
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- Y04S—SYSTEMS INTEGRATING TECHNOLOGIES RELATED TO POWER NETWORK OPERATION, COMMUNICATION OR INFORMATION TECHNOLOGIES FOR IMPROVING THE ELECTRICAL POWER GENERATION, TRANSMISSION, DISTRIBUTION, MANAGEMENT OR USAGE, i.e. SMART GRIDS
- Y04S10/00—Systems supporting electrical power generation, transmission or distribution
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Abstract
A kind of Substation Bus Arrangement methods of risk assessment based on LCC, it is on the basis of transformer station's element Petri net model is set up, determine system mode using the fundamental equation of Petri network and calculate corresponding probability, and then try to achieve the load abatement probability of each load point, expect to lack power supply power and expect cut-off three risk indicators of cost, and be estimated according to the risk indicator butted line mode of each load point.The present invention tries to achieve the risk indicator of each load point using the method for Petri network, four kinds of states that element may occur both has been considered in risk assessment processes, while it is contemplated that the misaction of breaker, substantially increases the good accuracy of risk assessment.Risk assessment is carried out to Substation Bus Arrangement using the present invention, designer can be helped to select optimal connection plan, reach the maximum design object of least risk, benefit.
Description
Technical Field
The invention relates to a risk assessment method for a transformer substation main wiring based on an LCC (Life Cycle Cost), and belongs to the technical field of power transmission and distribution.
Background
The transformer substation is a connection part between a generator set and a power transmission system or between the power transmission system and a power distribution system, and is responsible for power supply tasks from a power transmission network to various load areas. The economic, safe and reliable operation of the transformer substation is closely related to the power quality and the power supply reliability of the transformer substation. Therefore, the connection mode of the main connection of the substation (i.e., the circuit for collecting and distributing electrical energy, which is connected by the transformer, the circuit breaker, the disconnector, the bus and other devices in a certain electrical sequence) is very important in the design of the substation.
The risk of the main wiring of the transformer substation is reasonably and accurately evaluated, and optimization of a design scheme is facilitated. Most of the existing risk assessment methods only consider the reliability of the scheme, but do not consider whether the running cost of the power transmission and distribution system in the whole life cycle process is the lowest, so that designers cannot be guided to select a correct design scheme to achieve the aims of minimum risk and maximum benefit, and the method is not beneficial to long-term development of enterprises. Therefore, finding a reasonable method for assessing the risk of main wiring of a substation is a problem faced by technicians.
Disclosure of Invention
The invention aims to provide a transformer substation main wiring risk assessment method based on LCC (logical control center) aiming at the defects of the prior art so as to guide designers to determine an optimal wiring scheme and achieve the design goals of minimum risk and maximum benefit.
The problem of the invention is realized by the following technical scheme:
a transformer substation main wiring risk assessment method based on LCC is characterized in that on the basis of building a Petri network model of a transformer substation element, a basic equation of a Petri network is utilized to determine a system state and calculate corresponding probabilities, three risk indexes of load reduction probability, expected power shortage and expected power outage cost of each load point are further obtained, and a wiring mode is assessed according to the risk indexes of each load point, and the method comprises the following steps:
a. numbering all nodes of a substation
Regarding a bus as a node, wherein the equipment comprises two nodes which are respectively positioned at two ends of the equipment, and numbering all the nodes of the transformer substation from 1 according to the sequence from a power supply point to the bus and then to a load point;
b. building Petri network model
Establishing a plurality of substation element sets, wherein each set only comprises one element and a breaker having a protection relation with the element, and establishing a corresponding Petri net model according to each set;
c. solving the Petri network model of each set to obtain the probability and frequency of each element in a normal operation state, a switching state, a maintenance state and a planned maintenance shutdown state:
probability of element being in operationAnd frequency：
Probability of element being in switching stateAnd frequency：
，
Probability of element being in modified stateAnd frequency：
，
Probability of element in scheduled maintenance stateAnd frequency：
，
In the formulaIn order to successfully reverse the switching rate,for the repair rate from scheduled maintenance to operation,for the repair rate from repair to operation,in order to provide for failure rates due to active failures,failure rate due to non-active failure;
d. selecting a system state by using a Petri network, only considering first-order and second-order failure events and scheduled maintenance events, and calculating the probability of the system state:
probability of first-order failure event or scheduled maintenance event of system
Probability that transformer fails to work in switching state and circuit breaker works normally：
，
In the formula,indicating transformerThe occurrence of a failure event is in the switching state,indicating the probability of the other components operating properly,，respectively indicating protective relation with transformerThe probability of the occurrence of the action rejection event of the ith breaker and the jth breaker of the series;
probability that transformer fails to work in switching state and ith circuit breaker fails to work：
，
Probability of transformer failure in repaired state：
，
In the formula,representing the probability of the transformer being in a switching state;
probability of occurrence of scheduled maintenance eventsComprises the following steps:
，
in the formula,representing the probability that the bus is in a scheduled maintenance state;
② probability of two-step failure event of system：
，
In the formula,，respectively, the probability of two failure events,the circuit breaker failure probability of the same circuit breaker occurring failure event in two failure events is represented;
③ probability of simultaneous occurrence of first order failure event and scheduled maintenance event, formula and calculation of probability of two order failure event in systemSimilarly, it is noted that other adjacent components that are also isolated due to the scheduled maintenance of a component are not discussed, and that components on certain lines are not discussed due to the scheduled maintenance causing the electrical connection of those lines to be lost;
e. verifying connectivity between a power point and a load point
Analyzing by a direct labeling method, if one load point is disconnected from all power supply points, considering the system state as the failure state of the load point, and recording the reduced load;
f. calculating risk indexes of each load point, including a load shedding probability PLC, an expected power supply shortage EENS and an expected power outage cost UEC:
，，，
in the formula,is the probability of a failure state i associated with a load point k,is the average load at the load point k over the period considered (in most cases 1 year),is the price of electricity sold by the system; d, the calculation results of the steps a to d are used for determining the probability of the system state, if the system state causes the load reduced in the step e, the system state is a failure state, statistics is needed, finally all the system states are completely counted, and the probability of all the failure states is obtained and used for the step fCalculating (1);
g. and evaluating the wiring mode according to the risk index of each load point, and selecting a main wiring scheme with a small expected outage cost value by counting the expected power supply shortage EENS and the expected outage cost UEC of different main wirings.
According to the invention, the risk index of each load point is obtained by using a Petri network method, and in the risk evaluation process, four states possibly occurring in the element are considered, and the action rejection phenomenon of the circuit breaker is also considered, so that the accuracy of good risk evaluation is greatly improved. The risk assessment method and the risk assessment system can be used for carrying out risk assessment on the main wiring of the transformer substation, and can help designers to select the optimal wiring scheme, so that the design goals of minimum risk and maximum benefit are achieved.
Drawings
The present invention will be described in further detail with reference to the accompanying drawings.
FIG. 1 is a diagram of a four state model of the components on the main wiring of a substation of the present invention;
FIG. 2 is a graph of a Petri net of transformer failure;
FIG. 3 is a Petri Net for scheduled bus overhaul;
fig. 4 is a correlation matrix.
The symbols used herein are:is the probability that the element is in the operating state,is the frequency at which the element is in the operating state,is the probability that an element is in the switching state,is the frequency at which the element is in the switched state,is the probability that the element is in the modified state,the frequency at which the component is in the repair state,is the probability that the component is in the planned overhaul state,for the frequency at which the component is in the scheduled service condition,in order to successfully reverse the switching rate,for repair rates from scheduled overhaul to run,for the repair rate from repair to operation,in order to provide for failure rates due to active failures,for failure rates due to non-active failures,the probability that the transformer fails in the switching state and the circuit breaker works normally,indicating transformerThe occurrence of a failure event is in the switching state,indicating the probability of the other components operating properly,，respectively representing the probability of the fault event of the ith breaker and the jth breaker which have protection relation with the transformer,the probability that the transformer fails to work in a switching state and the ith breaker fails to work,to be the probability of a transformer failure being in the trimmed state,indicating the probability of the transformer being in the switching state,in order to determine the probability of a planned maintenance event,representing the probability that the bus bar is in the planned service state,，respectively, the probability of two failure events,indicating the probability of the same circuit breaker failing to operate in two failure events, PLC being the load shedding probability, EENS being the expected power shortage, UEC being the expected outage cost,is the probability of a failure state i associated with a load point k,is the average load at load point k over the period under consideration,selling electricity prices for the system.
Detailed Description
Each set of substation elements may construct a correlation matrix.
Fig. 1 shows a four-state model diagram of elements on a substation main line. The elements of the substation include transformers, disconnectors, busbars, circuit breakers, and the like. The transformer, the isolating switch and the transmission line belong to static elements, the function of the static elements is to transmit power from one point to another point, and the basic models of the elements adopt a four-state model as shown in figure 1, wherein the four-state model comprises a normal operation state, a switching state, an on-repair state and a scheduled maintenance shutdown state. This is the basis for building a Petri Net graph. In FIG. 1Indicating failure rate due to active failures such as short circuit faults;indicating a failure rate due to an inactive failure such as an open fault;a transition rate representing a planned maintenance state;indicating a successful switching rate;representing the repair rate from repair to operation;representing the repair rate from scheduled overhaul to run.
Fig. 2 is a graph of a Petri net of transformer failures. The Petri net is a graphical mathematical tool for modeling and analyzing a discrete event system. The basic equation of the Petri net can express the initial identificationA conversion process to the identifier m. The probability of each state is specifically analyzed by an analytic method in the process of visually representing that the equipment normally operates from a normal operation state to a fault or a maintenance state and normally operates again through maintenance and switching operation, and the purpose is to accurately solve the probability in the risk index. The set to which the Petri Net graph drawn in FIG. 2 relates comprises a transformerAnd circuit breakers in protective relationship therewithThe conditions to be taken place include。
Wherein,indicating that all components are in a normal operating state,indicating transformerThe occurrence of a failure event is in the switching state,presentation and transformerThe circuit breakers in a protective relationship are normally open.To representThe phenomenon of refusing action occurs, other circuit breakers are normally switched off,indicating operation of the transformer by switchingIs in a repair state.Represents a translation vector, whereinRepresenting the active failure process of the transformer;toShows the action process of the breaker having protection relation with the transformer,indicating that the associated circuit breakers are all normally open,indicating that the related nth breaker has refused action;toShowing the process of the switching operation,indicating that an inactive failure process has occurred in the component,indicating the process of transitioning from a repaired state to normal operation. n representsAnd transformerThe circuit breakers with protection relation have n sets. The Petri net graph of failure events for other elements has the same structure as that of FIG. 2.
FIG. 3 shows a Petri Net for planned bus overhaul. Because the planned overhaul event and the failure event are different, a Petri net of the planned overhaul event needs to be drawn, which is also to accurately solve for the probability in the risk index. The set related to the Petri net graph drawn in the graph comprises a bus,Indicating that the bus bar is in a scheduled service condition.Indicating the progression of the component from normal operation to a scheduled service condition,the Petri net graph representing the process from the scheduled maintenance state to the normal operation of the element and the scheduled maintenance events of other elements has the same structure as that of FIG. 3.
Fig. 4 shows a correlation matrix in a Petri net. Fig. 2 and 3 are mainly schematic representations of the state transformation process of elements, and in order to implement software programming, a correlation matrix is required to determine that the elements are in different states, then the states of each element are summarized to obtain a system state, and the probability of the system state is solved to calculate a risk indicator. Each column in FIG. 4 represents the transfer process, and each row represents the state of the element, the initial positionIs composed ofRank of stepsVector quantityFeature vectorIs thatThe order column vector. By passingThe different values of the circuit breaker can enumerate to determine the system state, and only one circuit breaker failure phenomenon is considered in the transformer failure event.Is divided into three parts, the first part isThe value of the first row of (1) is 0 or 1, 1 represents that the element is in a switching state when the element fails, and 0 represents that the element normally operates. The second part isThe second line of (2) ends with the second to last lineAnditem (A)) Are divided into a group, haveEach group is 0, 0 or 1, 1, wherein 1,0 represents the action process of the breaker after the element failure, 1, 1 represents the switching state transition after the element switching operationAnd (5) state modification. The third part isThe last term of (a) is 0 or 1, and taking 1 indicates a process in which the element is directly transferred from normal operation to a repair state, such as an inactive failure.
In addition, the values of the first part and the third part are different, namely the first two parts can only take 0 when the last part takes 1; when the first part takes 1, the second part discusses the case, and the third part takes 0. Since only one possible operation rejection of the circuit breaker is considered herein, the second part has only one set of values 1,0 or 1, 1 and the other set of values 0, 0, all in commonAnd (3) a situation.
If the phenomenon of failure of a plurality of circuit breakers is considered, the method can be used inThe second part of (2) determining values for each group in a permutation and combination manner, if two circuit breakers are considered to failAnd (3) a situation. Thus only according to the formulaThe system state can be determined.
The invention applies the concept of risk assessment based on life cycle cost management, is a quantitative analysis method and mainly analyzes the loss caused by the failure of elements on the main electrical wiring for repairing and the failure of elements on the main electrical wiring for normal use and the planned maintenance.
The invention comprises the following steps:
(1) and numbering all nodes of the transformer substation. One bus is a node, and the other devices are provided with two nodes which are positioned at two ends of the devices and numbered from 1 according to the direction from a power supply point to the bus and then to a load point;
(2) and establishing a Petri network model. Establishing a plurality of sets of substation elements, wherein each set only comprises one element and a circuit breaker with a protection relationship with the element;
(3) solving the Petri network model of each set to obtain the probability of each element in each state; the probability and frequency of the element being in operation,
，
，
probability and frequency of the element being in the switching state
，
，
Probability and frequency of component in modified state
，
，
Probability and frequency of component in scheduled maintenance state
，
，
(4) And selecting the system state by using the Petri network, and only considering first-order and second-order failure events and scheduled maintenance events. Each set of substation elements can construct a correlation matrix, and basic equations of a Petri net can be used for expressing initial identificationTo the markThe conversion process of (1);
；
(5) the probability of the system state is considered.
1) The probability of a first order failure event occurring in the system and a scheduled maintenance event are considered. Each group in the basic equation of Petri netThere is a probability for a system state and the probability of a system failing or scheduled to be serviced is calculated by considering the operating state of all components simultaneously.
The probability that the transformer fails and is in a switching state and the breaker works normally:
，
the transformer failure is in a switching state and the probability of the action rejection of the ith circuit breaker is as follows:
，
probability of transformer failure in the trimmed state:
，
in the formulaIndicating transformerThe probability of occurrence of being in a switching state,indicating the probability that the transformer is in a repair state,indicating the probability of the other components operating properly,，the probability of the fault event of the ith breaker and the jth breaker which have protection relation with the transformer is respectively shown, m shows m elements, and n shows the number of the breakers which have protection relation with the elements.
2) And considering the probability of two-order failure events of the system, and performing parallel operation on the results of the two failure sets to remove the probability of the possible same circuit breaker failure event in the two failure events.
，
In the formula, the first step is that,the circuit breaker failure probability representing the failure event of the same circuit breaker in two failure events,、respectively, representing the probability of two failure events.
3) The first order failure event and the scheduled maintenance event occur simultaneously. Note that other adjacent components that are isolated due to the planned servicing of a component are not discussed, and that components on those lines are not discussed because the planned servicing causes some of the lines to lose electrical connection.
(6) And checking the connectivity between the power supply point and the load point. If a load point is disconnected from all power supply points, the system status is considered as the failure status of the load point and the load shedding is recorded.
(7) And calculating a risk index of each load point.
Expected power supply shortage EENS
，
In the formula,is the average load at load point k over the period considered (in most cases 1 year).
An outage cost UEC is desired.
，
In the formula,is the system power supply cost.
Claims (1)
1. A transformer substation main wiring risk assessment method based on LCC is characterized in that on the basis of building a Petri network model of a transformer substation element, a basic equation of a Petri network is utilized to determine a system state and calculate corresponding probability, three risk indexes of load reduction probability, expected power shortage and expected power outage cost of each load point are further obtained, and a wiring mode is assessed according to the risk indexes of each load point, and the method comprises the following steps:
a. numbering all nodes of a substation
Regarding a bus as a node, wherein the equipment comprises two nodes which are respectively positioned at two ends of the equipment, and numbering all the nodes of the transformer substation from 1 according to the sequence from a power supply point to the bus and then to a load point;
b. building Petri network model
Establishing a plurality of substation element sets, wherein each set only comprises one element and a breaker having a protection relation with the element, and establishing a corresponding Petri net model according to each set;
c. solving the Petri network model of each set to obtain the probability and frequency of each element in a normal operation state, a switching state, a maintenance state and a planned maintenance shutdown state:
probability P of element being in operation0And frequency f0：
Probability P of an element being in a switched stateaAnd frequency fa：
Probability P of element being in modified staterAnd frequency fr：
Probability P of element in scheduled maintenance statemAnd frequency fm：
In the formula, muswFor successful switching rate, mumFor repair rate from scheduled overhaul to run, μrFor repair rate from repair to operation, λaFor failure rates due to active failure, λpFailure rate due to inactive failure, λmA transition rate representing a planned maintenance state;
d. selecting a system state by using a Petri network, only considering first-order and second-order failure events and scheduled maintenance events, and calculating the probability of the system state:
probability of first-order failure event or scheduled maintenance event of system
Probability that transformer fails to work in switching state and circuit breaker works normally
In the formula,indicating transformer T1In a switching state in the event of failure, PkIndicates the probability of the other elements operating normally, Pbi，PbjRespectively representing the probability of the occurrence of the action rejection event of the ith breaker and the jth breaker which have protection relation with the transformer, wherein m represents m elements, and n represents the number of the breakers having protection relation with the elements;
transformer failure pointProbability of refusing action of ith circuit breaker in switching state
Probability of transformer failure in repaired state
In the formula,representing the probability of the transformer being in a switching state;
probability of occurrence of scheduled maintenance eventsComprises the following steps:
in the formula, PM1mRepresenting the probability that the bus is in a scheduled maintenance state;
probability P of two-order failure events of the system:
P＝(P1×P2)/Pb，
in the formula, P1，P2Respectively representing the probability of two failure events, PbThe circuit breaker failure probability of the same circuit breaker occurring failure event in two failure events is represented;
probability of simultaneous occurrence of the first-order failure event and the scheduled maintenance event;
e. verifying connectivity between a power point and a load point
Analyzing by a direct labeling method, if one load point is disconnected from all power supply points, considering the system state as the failure state of the load point, and recording the reduced load;
f. calculating risk indexes of each load point, including a load shedding probability PLC, an expected power supply shortage EENS and an expected power outage cost UEC:
UEC＝EENS×Cprice，
in the formula, PikIs the probability of a failure state i, L, associated with a load point kkIs the average load of the load point k over the period under consideration, CpriceIs the price of electricity sold by the system;
g. and evaluating the wiring mode according to the risk index of each load point, and selecting a main wiring scheme with a small expected outage cost value by counting the expected power supply shortage EENS and the expected outage cost UEC of different main wirings.
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| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
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| CN102447735A (en) * | 2011-11-09 | 2012-05-09 | 重庆大学 | Reliability analyzing method for DAML-S (Darpa Agent Markup Language for Services) composite services |
| US8229776B1 (en) * | 2008-05-06 | 2012-07-24 | The United States Of America As Represented By The Secretary Of The Navy | Evaluation of subsystem technology in a system-of-subsystems environment |
| CN103001328A (en) * | 2012-11-19 | 2013-03-27 | 山东大学 | Fault diagnosis and assessment method of intelligent substation |
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| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US8229776B1 (en) * | 2008-05-06 | 2012-07-24 | The United States Of America As Represented By The Secretary Of The Navy | Evaluation of subsystem technology in a system-of-subsystems environment |
| CN102447735A (en) * | 2011-11-09 | 2012-05-09 | 重庆大学 | Reliability analyzing method for DAML-S (Darpa Agent Markup Language for Services) composite services |
| CN103001328A (en) * | 2012-11-19 | 2013-03-27 | 山东大学 | Fault diagnosis and assessment method of intelligent substation |
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